Analysis

Analysis (1164)
Comparative analysis (21)
Comprehensive analysis (4)
Patent analysis (13)
Prospective analysis (13)
Rational analysis (6)
Structured analysis (5)
Systematic analysis (8)
Weak signal analysis (4)

Synopsis: Analysis: Analysis:

the purpose of the analysis (awareness raising, envisioning, consensus building, corporate technology planning, etc; the reliability of source information;

and analysis. The process element also highlighted the importance of the management process for foresight studies

and other two articles focus on analysis of methods and tools that have been or could be adopted from other fields (i e. dimporting ideast session).

Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies E. Anders Eriksson A k. Matthias Weber b a FOI Defence Analysis, SE-16490 Stockholm, Sweden b ARC systems

Therefore, a consolidated integration of analytical and exploratory scientific methods (e g. system analysis and modelling) on the one hand and of participatory processes and interactions with experts and stakeholders on the other would help enhance the scientific credibility of foresight results. 7‘Environmental scanning'along the lines

Instead any strategic decision-making has to take place well in advance of receiving 9 An example is the Handbook of Systems analysis from the 1980s with only quite cursory remarks on the subject (20, p. 240,21, p. 259f).

initial analysis and review Before looking ahead, it is necessary to conduct a solid retrospective analysis of the field of investigation,

i e. of recent and current developments along the lines of the perspective on complex innovation processes.

After all, it is external developments that drive the need for adaptation. 24 The understanding of innovation systems analysis as used here is based on the conventional actor-oriented approach as pioneered by Freeman 44 and Lundvall 45 in the late 1980s and early 1990s

More normatively oriented, functional innovation systems approaches take a different stance on innovation system analysis 46.25 The methodology outlined in this section is largely based on the so called Shell/GBN tradition 47.

and intervention that can serve as an important input to the subsequent portfolio analysis. In principle,

identification of collective strategies (portfolio analysis) So far, individual scenarios have been developed, refined and analysed. Each of the scenarios and pathways can be characterised in terms of technologies

From today's perspective, portfolio analysis then looks across the scenarios in order to assess and select those technology options

identification of individual strategies (portfolio analysis) In analogy to Phase 8, this is the counterpart at the individual client organisation level of Phase 7. 3. 2. 11.

In practice, processes of scenario developments and portfolio analysis will hardly be conducted on a continuous basis but at best be repeated every few years, for instance in line with an update of the overall technology and innovation policy strategy.

Therefore, one of the challenges is to merge a methodological approach emphasising structural uncertainty with a real option analysis without the necessity of an optimal market.

Pinter, London, 1980.2 K. M. Weber, The Neo-Schumpeterian element in the sociological analysis of innovation, in:

Handbook of Systems analysis, Overview of Uses, Procedures, Applications, and Practice, Elsevier/John Wiley, New york, 1985.21 Y. Dror, Uncertainty, Coping with it and with political feasibility, in:

Handbook of Systems analysis, Craft Issues and Procedural Choices, Elsevier/John Wiley, New york, 1988.22 S. K. Gupta, J. Rosenhead, Robustness in sequential investment decisions, Manage.

Research and Energy in Swedish Politics, Akademilitteratur, Stockholm, 1984.28 K. M. Weber, Foresight and portfolio analysis as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making, in:

Experiences from the preparation of an international research program Ville Brummer a, 1, Totti Könnölä b, 2, Ahti Salo a a Systems analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University of Technology, P o box

In addition, extensive network analyses were conducted to support the identification of possible collaboration networks and the development of joint calls for proposals.

Drawing upon experiences from earlier collaboration with the Systems analysis Laboratory at Helsinki University of Technology in the development of a Scandinavian co-funded Wood Material Science Research program 16, the project plan for the Woodwisdom

Iterative de/recomposition contributes to scalability by allowing i) the decomposition of complex problems into smaller manageable sub-problems for subsequent analysis and ii) the recomposition of results from these analyses through processes of interpretative synthesis. In the Woodwisdom-Net,

as well as by the treatment of research areas and research themes as relevant‘units of analysis'that experts could be assessed with the Internet-based decision support tool.

which is a variant of the Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) methodology for the analysis of innovation ideas and innovative concepts 9, 10,18, 19.

consequently, the RPM analysis was carried out by identifying alternative portfolios of 7 research issues that could be regarded as attractive in view of incomplete preference information about the relative importance of the assessment criteria.

In RPM, the analysis in the presence of incomplete information is based on the computation of all nondomiinate portfolios (i e.,

The analysis was carried out separately for each sub-area. The core index values were illustrated through histograms.

Separate analyses were presented at the aggregate level (i e.,, by taking into account all evaluations) and at the country level (i e.,

together with an analysis of how interested the researchers are in working on these issues, may assist in the formation of new collaborative networks.

For each research issue, such an analysis conveys which research groups are keen on participating in corresponding project consortia,

In this context, systematic methods like RPM Screening can lend structure to consultation processes so that inputs from one level of analysis (e g.

and taken forward to another level of analysis. A challenge in using the Internet as a platform for structured deliberative consultation processes is that such processes are new to many participants.

2005) is Researcher and doctoral student at the Systems analysis Laboratory of Helsinki University of Technology, with research interests in foresight, decision support systems and strategic decision making.

Previously, he has been Senior researcher at the VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Researcher at the Systems analysis Laboratory in the Helsinki University of Technology and Expert in Gaia Group Oy

Ahti Salo (M. Sc. 1987, D. Tech. 1992) is Professor at the Systems analysis Laboratory with research interests in decision analysis, decision support systems, technology foresight, and risk management.

the United kingdom started with some cost-benefit analyses of regulations in the 1980s. Other European countries like Sweden or The netherlands followed in the mid 1990s.

and indeed requires, the inclusion of standards in our analysis. 497 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Regarding the impact assessment of standards,

The analysis of regulatory foresight in the narrow sense is based, first, on a broad survey of literature databases and the internet regarding regulatory impact assessments in general,

matching policy instruments and methodologies Innovation surveys Econometric models Control group approaches Cost benefit analysis Expert panels/peer review Field/case studies Network analysis Foresight/Technology assessment

one has to differentiate the analysis in those fields of high dynamics. Regulatory challenges in the sense of controlling dominant players can be detected by calculating concentration indices of patent applications.

only Blind 37 applied a factor analysis approach to determine groups of service aspects relevant for standardisation,

since they require the development of a questionnaire, the performance of a survey either via traditional postal mail or via online survey, the collection and cleaning of the data and finally, the analysis of the data.

which allows comparative analyses. If surveys address the universe of organisations, e g. firms, and lead to representative results, the data can be combined with indicator-based approaches representing the universe in science and technology.

Based on correlation analysis referring to the 21 items, we still find a positive correlation between regulation and standardisation,

countries and over time Little information about possible types of regulation Detailed analysis allows the identification of specific regulation-relevant content

the universe Processing and analysis of data requires large human resources Identification of adequate samples Some types of information are difficult to obtain (answers to counterfactual questions

Analysis of Regulations Shaping New Markets, European commission DG Enterprise (ed.),Luxembourg,(2004. 9 B. R. Martin, Foresight in science and technology, Technol.

, New york, 1972.16 O. Helmer, Analysis of the Future: The Delphi method, Rand Corporation, Santa monica, 1967.17 J. Irvine, B. R. Martin, Foresight in Science, Picking the Winners, London, Dover, 1984.18 P. Swann:

This paper discusses, based on a first round application in the field of micro and nanotechnologies for single cell analysis, the methodology of such a new approach.

We then apply these insights to lab-on-a-chip devices for cell analysis. Dynamics of emerging paths can be used to articulate a future structured in terms of prospective innovation chains and potential paradigms.

In contrast, analyses of assessment practices of researchers and start-ups (who constitute the larger part of Frontiers) seemrare.

such as with‘anticipatory tools'(foresight exercises, bibliometric analyses, scenario planning, etc); and tools for portfolio and project management. 519 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The point we make is that technological uncertainty

Before delving into the context of lab-on-a-chip for cell analysis we explore what the literature can tell us with regards to insights into emerging path dynamics stemming from sociology of S&t, evolutionary economics and organization studies.

and Emerging s&t. 9 Cell-on-a-chip devices are integrated laboratories on a chip (Lab-on-a-chip) dedicated to cell analysis and manipulation.

sample preparation, pretreattment analysis, manipulation and removal. 520 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538

knowledge of path dynamics need to be integrated into a process of controlled speculation in combination with other analyses.

lab-on-a-chip devices for cell analysis The vision of performing laboratory experiments at a micro or even nanoscale was posed first by Terry 50 who linked the idea of integrated microelectronics to the notion of integrated

In 1990 Manz 51 posed that integrated microfluidics could be harnessed to create complex systems that integrate all necessary analysis steps on one chip,

labelled as a Micro Total Analysis System (TAS). The agenda was set to miniaturise existing laboratory analysis instrumentation

and in the early 1990s high expectations were raised about the possibilities of performing (bio) chemical analysis at any lab-on-a-chip and at anytime, for example, total blood analysis at the patient's bedside (Point-of-care testing).

In 1993, Harrison and Manz 52 reported on a breakthrough regarding the successful miniaturisation of the analytical technique of capillary electrophoresis,

but also providing novel concepts for separation and detection, cell analysis, cell manipulation etc. Also, in the field of biomedical research, off the back of the Human Genome Project15, a major emphasis in cell biology over the last decade has been focused on in areas related to genomics, proteomics, medical diagnostics,

and combine them into an experimental platform for systems research such as protein analysis in the lab (moving from phase 1 to phase 2). Such an integration of a number of devices into an experimental system is undertaken usually in a university laboratory.

Fig. 2. Broader innovation issues of the transition from research lab to company in the single cell analysis innovation chain. 524 D. K. R. Robinson,

For single cell analysis nanotechnology based tools are beginning to emerge as promising devices for single cell

and subcellular analysis. Although current microtechnologies (including microfluidics) provide a foundation for creating a nanotechnology interface with single cells,

both the integration of multiple functions and automated analysis and data handling remain to be accomplished in a selfconttaine cell-on-a-chip.

1. explore and develop tools to map possible futures for the field of cell-on-a-chip with a focus on single cell analysis

2. use analysis of path dynamics and other strategic intelligence to explore the robustness of specific paths located within the field map;

and 3. evaluate which paths show the most promise of successfully bridging the gaps in the innovation chain for single cell analysis with lab-on-a-chip technology.

technical dimension Lab-on-a-chip specifically for cell analysis is particularly relevant for Frontiers research lines due to its focus on instrumentation based on nanotechnologies for the life sciences.

Of particular interest is the proliferation of research and development of nanotechnologies for cell analysis the laboratory, the proliferation of expectation of applications for such cell-on-a-chip devices,

and analysis conducted today in a macro-scale laboratory:(1) cell culture;(2) sample treatment;(

and (6) Analysis. Relevant research for instrumentation and approaches for each of these stages is positioned in the proof of principle section (phase 1) of the innovation chain shown in Figs. 1 and 2. Such areas of research have proliferated over the last 10 years 53,54.

and other microscale flow-based cell analysis systems have been investigated for cell detection. Microfluidic devices for cell treatment,

This has stimulated hopes for the field of single cell analysis, and promises about tissue engineering on a chip, stem cell analysis and possible production, 526 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75

(2008) 517 538 single cell based biosensors 61,62 etc.,are now being circulated by many of both the TAS and biology communities.

(or any) analysis. We come back to this in the next section where we look at specific innovation chains for cell-on-a-chip.

Using literature analysis and a number of semistruccture interviews we constructed a map of the actual and possible technological

and application paths for chip-based cell analysis platforms (cf Fig. 3). The map indicates that actors can select between two distinct yet general clusters of technological paths within cell analysis:

using multiple cells for analysis (MCA), detection, or as‘cell factories, 'and using single cells (SCA).

Single cell analysis in itself can be achieved using lysed cells (i e. cells where the membranes have been ruptured intentionally) or intact cells.

Multiple cell analysis is a technology path in as far as platforms and instruments are constructed around the principle of using multiple cells;

compared with single cell analysis this has certain advantages and disadvantages in terms of application that need not be discussed here.

Any cell analysis technique Fig. 3. Technological multi-path map for cell-on-a-chip (Bioreactor 57). 527 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp

In the future, drug delivery could be based on socio-technical entanglements created around multiple cell analysis. These entanglements would be based on,

and develop an integrated platformfor DNA analysis, with a particular focus on point-of-use. This integrated platform has been funded to develop At scene of crime DNA characterisation with the aim of demonstrating an integrated platform

creation and ongoing analysis of a portfolio of relevant research. Innovation chains are specific and there is a lot at stake for those who attempt at creating

microfabrication and nanotechnology tools for cell analysis and (2) start-up companies and small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMES) relating to specific cell analysis techniques and lab-on-a-chip technology.

(or attempts at) innovation chains in the broader microfluidic/cell analysis fields: In-house R&d of a multinational corporation (MNC) Technology development conducted by SMES

For example, the University of Hull's crime scene forensic device is one case where funding was given to develop a prototype device for DNA analysis,

cell analysis based medical diagnostics could be driven by MNC based innovation, SME based innovation, etc.

Through analysis of socio-technical scenarios, emerging paths and emerging irreversibilities in the field of research can be anticipated

For a company or specific project leader, the path analysis is with respect to developments in research, the business environment, possible users, as well as regulation.

Manag. 40 (5 september October 1997) 48 55.8 D. E. Hussey, Glossary of techniques for strategic analysis, Strateg.

I. D. Manger, A. Daridon, Microfluidic Device for Single-Cell Analysis, Anal. Chem. 75 (2003) 3581 3586.56 E. Schilling, A. Kamholz, P. Yager, Cell lysis and protein extraction in a microfluidic device with detection by a fluorogenic enzyme assay, Anal.

K. R. Robinson, The use of the path concept and emerging irreversibilities in the analysis and modulation of nanotechnologies, EIASM Workshop on organising paths paths of organising, Berlin, November 2006, pp. 3 4

but also of social changes and the building of social 4 For an analysis of the major findings of the literature review see 1. 541 E. Amanatidou,

'The identification of such areas was the subject of the second part of 5 This conceptual framework will be validated via interviews with experts in relevant fields. 6 For an analysis of the major findings of the literature review,

This is illustrated in Fig. 2. 8 For an analysis of the social construction of knowledge and related implications on definitions,

or may not have been targeted in the first place, a finer level of analysis is required. Given the diverse nature of the impacts in question, it is wise to study each of these impact categories separately,

Several analytical tools have also been developed in this area, e g. social network analysis 22, transaction cost analysis 23 and actor network theory 24, 25.

and collaborating technologies. 9. Conclusions Analysis of the major characteristics of the emerging knowledge societies suggest that the characteristics

given the diverse nature of the impact areas in question, a finer level of analysis needs to be applied to the different areas of the impact assessment framework.

the logic and limits of Network Forms of Organisation, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 2003.22 S. Wasserman, K. Faust, Social networks Analysis:

She has 10-year experience in policy development and analysis in the field of research and innovation.

are addressed not in these analyses, and thus neither the potential changes in these broader settings, nor their impacts on higher education can be explored;(

& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 starting point the‘unit of analysis'is either an existing or an abstract (hypothetical) university.

When a particular or an‘abstract'university is taken as a unit of analysis, this diversity simply cannot be reflected.

as well as distinct viewpoints and approaches so as to enrich the discussion and analysis. Further, the shared visions and policy recommendations, stemming from the dialogue among participants,

and quantity, prevents anymeaningful analysis at the EULEVEL. The sheer number of universities, together with the diversity in their performance, implies that a thorough,

and on that basis comparative analyses can be conducted either at regional/national level, or across countries,

it would be pertinent to conduct thorough empirical analyses to compare the performance of universities among the Triad regions,

A detailed analysis of some recent trends in universities'research activities can be found in 5. 21 Other key trends

that is, keep universities as the‘unit of analysis'when conducting a foresight process. Another one is to emphasise the importance of several driving forces

economists have different views even on the appropriate level of analysis: products, firms, value chains (production networks),(sub-national) regions, nations,

and new issues are now in the centre of analysis, such as knowledge, knowledge production and use; learning, learning capabilities and learning systems;

The main advantage of taking existing or hypothetical universities as a starting point unit of analysis is that a wealth of micro-level factors can be considered.

especially in terms of time needed for background analyses and then discussions among the participants. It has several advantages, too;

when universities are chosen as the unit of analysis:(i) the likely impacts of potential changes in the broader socioeconomic systems, in which universities operate,

This sort of analysis a structured set futures, taking into account the links among systems operating at different levels can be of relevance in other Triad regions, too,

and analysis. Participation is particularly important in the case of universities: given their vital roles in generating,

probably the most challenging and innovative for policy makers and FTA PROCESS designers is Scott Cunningham's Analysis for Radical innovation.

The Exploratory Analysis of Trade-Offs in Strategic planning: Lessons from Regional infrastructure foresight, deals with a foresight exercise in connection with strategic infrastructure planning.

This involved the inclusion of pre-engagement analysis of potential co-evolutions in the form of scenarios into interactive workshop activities, with the aim of enabling multi-stakeholder anticipation of the complexities of co-evolution.

when he presented his paper Analysis for Radical Design to the FTA Conference: Changes are multitudinous.

robustness analysis and many of the other similar tools referenced below in the papers and a technical note.

He has written a fresh and thought-provoking analysis on Wall street A 21st century Crisis: Relearning Some Systems Lessons.

Tech. in systems analysis from the Helsinki University of Technology and MSC in environmental economics from the University of Helsinki.

He holds a MSC from Cornell University in Design and Environmental Analysis, and has over 30years of federal government service in Canada.

Analysis for radical design Scott W. Cunningham Policy analysis Section, Faculty of technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Postbus 5015,2600 GA Delft, The netherlands a r

A literature review of related work in the field of technology opportunities analysis is presented. We consider a possible, radically decentralized context for the conduct of future design.

because the analysis of a very significant feature of technological change the recombination of existing components is not being supported by most technology opportunity analysis techniques.

A literature review of related work in the field of technology opportunities analysis is presented. A case study of new technology architecture in the information technology domain is presented.

Relevant research has approached the problem of forecasting radical technological change with methods for supporting analysis for both decomposition and integration of new technologies.

For the decomposition of technologies, morphological analysis has long been practiced as a technique for recognizing component technologies.

full validation of the model requires a longitudinal analysis; missing links may signal poor quality source materials;

The International Institute for Applied Systems analysis (IIASA) and others have examined the hierarchical embedding of infrastructure systems

so that it can be used for analysis, design and forecasting. If this hypothesis of distributed knowledge bases is correct,

Our previous example of four technologies will be expanded considerably to the analysis of forty-one technologies within an information technology design context.

of hierarchical analysis of data 21. These include a metabolic network, a grassland ecology, and a social network of terrorists.

Our goal in this analysis is to use the hierarchical structure to anticipate new changes in this field of information technology.

Thus, the hierarchical random graph approach may provide a new forecasting, analysis and design technique for architectural innovation.

which are most problematic for forecasting, analysis and design. Nonetheless this leaves the form of architectural innovation whereby innovators explore interactions between routine, highly available components,

A full analysis of this kind may require a longitudinal analysis of network development. Hierarchical models might be built before and after critical time periods,

Repeated trials and a more complete analysis based on an evolving network are desirable items for future research.

Des. 117 (Special B)( 1995) 2 10.15 C. Marchetti, N. Nakicenovic, The Dynamics of Energy systems and the Logistic Substitution Model, International Institute for Applied Systems analysis

an introduction to co-word analysis, Soc. Sci. Inf. 22 (2)( 1983) 191 235.34 Lakatos, The Methodology of Scientific research Programmes:

The exploratory analysis of trade-offs in strategic planning: Lessons from Regional infrastructure foresight E. Störmer A b. Truffer A d. Dominguez b, W. Gujer b c, A. Herlyn b, H. Hiessl d, H. Kastenholz e

and tools like modeling tools, real option approaches and decision analysis. However, these approaches are often deficient with regard to addressing the broad range of uncertainties associated with the long planning horizon (more extensively treated in 5). Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Corresponding

4, 5. For instance, a historical analysis of the emergence of the currently dominant socio-technical regime in wastewater treatment is elaborated by Geels 14.

In its applications it has contributed to the analysis of future development options of nations regions, sectors and companies mainly by focusing on perspectives associated with new technology development.

Linstone's multiple perspectives approach 35 argues for the enrichment of the traditional technical system's analysis with organizational and personal perspectives.

A meta-analysis of 80 scenario processes in the U s. found that these processes were started with a clear idea of the desired results

In terms of methodology, the value driven assessment follows the multi-criteria analysis approach (e g. 52) which is expanded to include uncertainties of context conditions (see e g. 53.

The relevant groups are identified in the situation analysis (e g. by using system constellation methods 60 to identify the roles, intentions, power and interactions among the most influential and affected 1153 E. Störmer et al./

Based on an analysis of technical reports board minutes and stakeholder interviews, they identify the strength

and uncertain factors for further analysis. During the first stakeholder workshop the participants project different possible states of each of the factors in the year 2030+of each of the suggested influencing factors.

The participants select three to four scenario cores from the analysis of regional and regulatory developments.

Fourthly, the assessment of the options follows the well established method of sustainability value tree analysis 66,67.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Based on a national analysis of The swiss sanitation system 69 and a call for participation in innovative strategic planning processes,

However, it had been formulated as a vague vision that resulted mainly from a technical analysis of the current infrastructure components (unresolved problems in water quality

Optimization of the existing system components was the main target and not an analysis of the entire sanitation system.

combining scenario planning with decision analysis, J. Multi-Criteria Decis. Anal. 8 (1999) 311 321.28 M. P. e Cunha, P. Palma, N. G. da Costa, Fear of foresight:

analysis. Power tools series, International Institute for Environment and Development, London, 2005.62 E. Störmer, Greening as strategic development in industrial change why companies participate in eco-networks, Geoforum 39 (1)( 2008) 32 47.63 J. Gausemeier,

Jochen Markard is a group leader for innovation system analysis and transition management at Cirus at Eawag and a lecturer at the University of Lucerne.

referring to the practice to revise the analysis every three to five years. In an ideal situation the risk analysis is performed continuously to check all appearing changes and situations.

exploration, analysis and anticipation. In the exploration stage, main issues, trends and drivers as well as key stakeholders'frames are explored.

Analysis stage means studying how the context and main issues, trends and drivers influence one another, and synthesising knowledge.

Anticipation considers previous analysis and aims at defining possible and/or desired futures. Methods like Delphi, SWOT analysis, benchmarking

and expert panels are used widely in the generation phase to generate new knowledge. In the action phase, technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios and others are useful methods to disseminate the visions of the future.

‘risk analysis'is mentioned in the‘analysis and selection'section of the framework. This will be discussed further in Section 2. 2. Joint research Centre (JRC)

The scope and context of the analysis, as well as the examination of the technology, its impacts and related policy,

Weak signal and Wild Card analyses for instance are used tools in risk analyses concerning the strategic design of societies or companies, e g. 43 45.

but also economical analysis. This section describes the methodological developments of risk assessment in the context of industrial safety,

and also methods for a very detailed analysis, such as index methods and strict quantitative modelling.

o data on the system being analysed and on all the associated substances, o operational model of the system under analysis, o systematic hazard identification procedure and risk estimation techniques,

they may be investigated further by applying a consequence analysis. A consequence analysis may consist of dispersion models

and dose-exposure analyses. Risk is defined as the combination of probability (frequency) and consequence of a certain scenario.

The results of this analysis are presented in the following section. 3. 1. Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS) A case study of the use of foresight

INNORISK project aims at applying Back-pocket roadmap 30 (also called Agile Roadmap), SWOT analysis 31,32 and IBM's Signpost methodology tools together with Potential Problem/Opportunity (Risk analysis

SWOT analysis is used then to deepen the knowledge of strengths opportunities, threats and weaknesses of the new innovation.

In INNORISK project PPA (Potential Problem analysis) is seen as an example of a brainstorming method that can be used to explode the prevailing mind-set in the opportunity recognition and analysis 29.

The link between the opportunity analysis and strategy works of a company becomes evident in the roadmapping process 29.

Active involvement of the decision makers in the analysis allowed them to have a broad and realistic image about opportunities and risks related to the new (potential) business.

concept elaboration and business potential analysis. The criteria used forced to take into account various kinds of uncertainties

and dominate the analysis, while on the strategic decision making level the autonomous methods are convenient. The analysis of this small amount of project material indicates that systematic risk assessment methods tend to direct the analysis towards instrumental, consensual and exclusive analysis of the future.

As resulted in the IRRIIS project, it is also challenging, and therefore not always productive, to apply systematic risk assessment methods together with more loosely formulated foresight approaches

where the scope and objectives of the analysis are defined. Recruitment phase of the FTA is included also in the scope definition phase in risk assessment,

and accuracy of the analysis. The foresight process as well as the risk assessment process is a knowledge making process.

and more detailed analysis are applied in the later phases. In practice it seems that wild card

Risk assessment methods require detailed description of the analysis target, at least a plan. The future target, e g. a scenario, may not have a sufficient level of detail.

and networking approach of different expert analyses. Since future and risks are always ontologically unknown to us,

Risk assessment process requires also a more detailed description of the target of the analysis Table 1 The lessons learned from the case projects.

Roadmap, SWOT analysis and Signpost foresight methods were integrated in the risk assessment process. Risk analysis methods and climate change scenarios were integrated.

Scenario building was based on large and vague trend analysis. The innovation process was seen as a whole. No contribution: the energy production process is noticed component by component. 1173 R. Koivisto et al./

Hence, fixed component by component way of doing the analysis may give place to other kinds of methods,

analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation. Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.3 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy, Int. J. Foresight Innov.

SWOT analysis, benchmarking, expert panels (new knowledge creation) Technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios (visions of the future) Constructive technology assessment,

a tool for situational analysis, J. Long Range Plann. 15 (2)( 1982) 12 14.33 M. Reunanen, Potential problem analysis, in:

Quality Management of Safety Analysis, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1993, pp. 71 78.34 SME Risk management Toolkit. SME vulnerability analysis, Booklet, http://www. pk-rh. com/(Read 5. 4. 2007), VTT, 2002.35 J. Paasi, P. Valkokari, P. Maijala

, T. Luoma, S. Toivonen, Managing uncertainty in the front end of radical innovation development, Proc. of IAMOT 2007 16th International Conference on Management of Technology, May 13 17,2007, Florida

44 H. H. Willis, Using Risk analysis to Inform Intelligence Analysis. RAND Infrastructure, Safety and Environment,,

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