decision

Decision

Corporate decision making (5)
Decision (351)
Decision making (500)
Decision process (8)
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Decision-making process (15)
Democratic decision-making (3)
Political decisions (6)
Sequential decision-making (6)
Strategic decision-making (32)
Strategic decisions (15)

which would facilitate the implementation of such decisions if taken some future time. This does not mean that all strategic decisions should be deferred.

Other criteria such as a better understanding of future challenges and pathways or the formulation of alternative decision options are mere ancillary arguments.

or from a public policy perspective, is confronted with the need to navigate increasingly complex decision landscapes.

Conventional forecasting approaches with their aim of predicting the future were based on a linear understanding of processes of socio-technical change that is simply an inappropriate representation of reality and thus misleading rather than enlightening with respect to informing decisions.

This converging understanding of the issues at play is expected to contribute to improving implicitly the coherence of the distributed decisions of these actors, in line with the shared mental framework developed.

because the influence on participants'mindsets and decisions is hard to observe, as well as the influence on the wider public debates.

adaptive planning suggests postponing decisions until we know more about the usefulness of different options that are kept open in the meantime.

i e. it deals with issues like what assets to acquire as opposed to the operational decisions on how to deploy

naturally, takes place under full realisation that subsequent decisions will follow, it is surprising how not-so-old,

authoritative texts on the subject fail to explicitly include sequential decision-making as a way for dealing with uncertainty. 9 Doing so they turn down to include in a rational decision framework,

as an alternative or complement to various one-shot decision options, the possibility of sequential decision-making, designed to exploit progressively improved understanding as time goes by.

one is led to an approach that first tries carefully to map available decision options as well as possible future developments.

a package of decision options, should be designed such that it, if adopted, can be expected to work reasonably well across the whole identified span of possible future developments.

It is well in line with everyday usage to term such a decision package solution robust.

In the context of one-shot decisions these are flexible options. Such options may be acquired by a one-shot decision

but do require active monitoring and indeed decision-making, however of an operational as opposed to strategic nature to perform their intended functions in the face of uncertainty.

By way of a simple example: In the face of the uncertainty that a fire might break out in one's house at some future point in time,

By this we mean (in the world of more tangible products and services) decision options that do not in themselves amount to tangible operational assets

A proposed package of decision options resulting from an AP exercise will typically consists of both robust (fixed and flexible) and adaptable parts.

K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 adaptable enough to allow the second-period decision to go for any of the considered visionary structures at reasonable lead-time

and stakeholders Adaptive foresight is designed to help decision-makers develop strategies. You can do a research project usingmany of the ideas from AF,

however, when individual actors need to make up theirminds about their strategies and concrete decisions, such forwardloookin consultations need to be kept internal to the client organisation23

and key decision points to get there. This approach is useful because it helps capture the room for manoeuver available to move towards a collective vision,

I. Kiss, E s. Quade, Guidance for decision, in: H. J. Miser, E s. Quade (Eds. Handbook of Systems analysis, Overview of Uses, Procedures, Applications,

Handbook of Systems analysis, Craft Issues and Procedural Choices, Elsevier/John Wiley, New york, 1988.22 S. K. Gupta, J. Rosenhead, Robustness in sequential investment decisions, Manage.

Nordic and European future-oriented projects in defence, security, energy and transportation, typically with innovation and major investment decisions as important aspects.

Arguably, a rational decision 490 V. Brummer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 maker would not choose a dominated portfolio,

thus, there is a need for decisions about which 493 V. Brummer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 participants will be invited to workshops and in what phases of the process.

Ahti Salo (M. Sc. 1987, D. Tech. 1992) is Professor at the Systems analysis Laboratory with research interests in decision analysis, decision support systems, technology foresight, and risk management.

but also national research agencies and businesses, in their efforts to cope with the increasing complexity of new technologies and decision environments, in an increased techno-economic competition worldwide 9. Since the 1990s,

and that the potential impacts of decisions can only partially be estimated. In the context of policy-making, the most important intentions of foresight exercises are to find out changes in consumer preferences

the political decision structures and the public administration. Based on the tradition of regulatory impact assessments and foresight exercises, we define regulatory foresight as strategic activity undertaken by governments

The second notion of path is from the perspective of an actor making decisions, developing strategies and taking action.

since there are a number of routes The decision has to be taken, sooner or later, whether to go for a highly application specific product (one purpose only),

Each decision is strategic as it requires investments and expertise on the parts of actors involved

enabling some sort of strategic management including decisions whether to deviate from strategies shown or go along with them.

Here it could act as an anticipation and mapping tool guiding decisions what innovation chain to invest in,

Nevertheless, decisions have to be made. Dealing with uncertainty and partial or incomplete knowledge needs collaboration and the strategic alignment of actors.

when formulating policy recommendations or actual policy decisions. Yet, it is simply not possible to reflect on this diversity in a single paper.

In that way, these visions can inform present-day decisions, and also show the possibilities to shape our future.

the‘small-scale'decisions made every day, without taking into account the‘broader picture'would shape the EU,

national and regional levels) could be to‘simulate'the likely impacts of their decisions, by changing the various‘parameters',e g. the overall rationale of the EU or national policies (i e.‘

and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests. The paper by Loveridge and Saritas:

seeking decisions robust under a variety conflicting forces 5. Uncertainty in new design arises in at least two areas 6. Technological design is an inherently uncertain process

and tools like modeling tools, real option approaches and decision analysis. However, these approaches are often deficient with regard to addressing the broad range of uncertainties associated with the long planning horizon (more extensively treated in 5). Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Corresponding

reduction of uncertainties was the guiding principle for structuring the decision problem, we will propose a foresight based approach that allows for considering a maximum range of uncertainties.

Finally, we will also address the issue of sustainability deficits of decisions: how to anticipate and integrate them into the formulation of a long term management strategy for infrastructure development.

Given the long life times of most infrastructures, strategic investment decisions will only take place every couple of decades.

Due to the long term horizon of infrastructure decisions, the planning process has to deal with lately increasing uncertainties in different fields.

in order to better prepare today's decisions and anticipate risks of established strategies 24, 25. The elaboration of scenarios supports self-reflection and learning as well as strengthens strategic thinking 26 by challenging individual and organizational worldviews 27.

Xiang and Clarke 29 call them decision scenarios with a focus on means. In corporate contexts, innovation oriented foresight focuses on long term product development strategies or market prospects.

In contrast, the industry's stakeholders favor besides low tariffs, additionally low levels of bureaucracy as well as voice and participation in the associations decision board. 4. 4. Exploring the trade-off landscape The virtual future stakeholder groups

and incorporated early on in a robust decision procedure able to respond to emerging information (e g. concerning decentralized technologies),

In particular, it was stated by the participants that they faced similar decision problems in other domains of (inter-)communal services.

combining scenario planning with decision analysis, J. Multi-Criteria Decis. Anal. 8 (1999) 311 321.28 M. P. e Cunha, P. Palma, N. G. da Costa, Fear of foresight:

A systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term visionbuilldin process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint action.

(e) Ways to improve understanding of psychological factors that lead to irrational decisions (f) Appropriate levels of aggregation in investigation of forecasting problems.

and monitoring decisions. Hence, the image of a few bright people, using a few interesting methods to forecast the future,

Although some of the methods such as decision analysis, scenarios portfolio theory, or decision trees have proven somewhat helpful in decision making in uncertainty,

the field is still very primitive. The quantitative techniques available to us are not yet capable of quantifying risk in ways other than probability.

Educating people in an organization as to the potentials for the organization can increase the likelihood that better decisions are made

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1067 6. Judgment heuristics People often make irrational decisions.

We ignore probabilities in our decisions. In Tversky's example, Sam is a meek, retiring, helpful, tidy, soft-spoken person.

Do we know the decision rules of the buyers and sellers with any more precision than the market as a whole?

and hopefully improve decisions which incorporate its findings. Thus, these frontiers will serve as important orientation in the elaboration of the second edition of Futures research methodology 2. 1 (CD-ROM) to be published by American Council for the United nations University early in 2005.

In The Finnish association of graduate engineers (TEK) this discussion led to a decision to develop an own comparative exercise together with VTT.

Gradually this debate led in The Finnish association of graduate engineers (TEK) to the decision to develop an own national performance comparison.

and its results can be utilized as an aid and support for long-term decisions concerning science, technology, innovation and education.

thus have a strong operational role in fostering the necessary decisions and providing the necessary facilities for the decisions in order to become materialized.

Despite the political nature of these decision-making processes, the experience gained so far frombarometer clearly indicates that the instrument providing this kind of qualificationsmay influence

Of course, BMBF and its different departments will have the last word in the decisions. But this time,

and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests is clearly not fully utilized.

Making better decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty does not only require rigorous analysis, but also political will

Making better decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty requires not only rigorous analysis. Even well-constructed, thoroughly analysed scenarios can be of little use and relevance,

some reporting specific laboratory tests of the impact on decisions and some referring to observations of decision processes within organisations 19 21.

One example is the study of Groves et al. who presented decision aids incorporating scenario concepts in a series of workshops to managers

Resulting decisions might appear irrational when evaluated against the framework of scenarios. Another argument concerned a potential mismatch of scenario formats

Demanding a check of important decisions against a set of more alternative, long-term scenarios could help to broaden the focus of assessments,

adapt structures and decisions to new insights and trigger more long-term changes in the organisations'overall awareness for constant anticipation, learning and adaptation 12,43.

Ministries can be obliged by regulation, cabinet decision or voluntary agreement, for example, to undertake scenario planning regularly

and recommended decisions than do private sector applications. Forthcoming efforts should include conducting empirical studies of the impacts of scenarios on organisational performance and their key drivers;

or to drive specific decisions (and either might be the case) scenario practitioners need to pay more attention to windows of opportunity, the areas of maximum uncertainty and doubt,

As a result, there are two general shapes to Foresight studies that flow from early decisions about their procedures and management structure.

which the programme managers operate ought to include ways that enable any participant to challenge anonymously decisions relating to their participation,

in all decisions made in the polity in creating the future, a feature pointed out in the 1970s).

entanglements due to sunk investments (Finnish policy), collective decision on technology developer side for soft law, etc.

and outcomes of the foresight and strategy process were translated successfully into policy decisions immediately after the exercise.

and by involving different stakeholder groups at corporate decisions. The ability to design adaptive processes is linked

whether foresight or strategy processes can be designed as a so-called decision machine, which, if designed well enough

but the idea of the rational decision has been challenged for decades by decision theorists (Lindblom 1959;

Foresight processes form a rational-analytical decision machine, capable of identifying areas that yield the greatest economic and social benefits.

As already mentioned, the idea of the rational decision has been challenged for decades by decision theorists.

A significant amount of the interactions of these actors, including the decisions on how to advance in the process,

and decisions Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 928 P. D. Andersen

The same groups of people also take decisions on the funding activities. Table 1. An overview of the two case studies.

and process elements of decisions based on the analyses. The strategy processes can benefit from better articulated expectations about future technologiies It is not enough to argue that a certain technology offers great opportunities for future commercial exploitation.

Decisions and organizations. Oxford: Basil Blackwell. March, J. G. 1994. A primer on decision making. How decisions happen.

Newyork: The Free Press. Martin, B. R. 1995. Foresight in science and technology. Technology analysis & Strategic management 7, no. 2: 139 68.

The internal decision bodies of the FNR were satisfied quite with the results presented at the end of the exercise

in fact, several of the recommendations of the process were translated immediately into policy decisions, others are planned to be implemented in the years to Come in spite of this apparent success,

More recently, it has been recognised that the effectiveness of policy depends also on the involvement of a broader range of actors than those formally in charge of policy decisions.

This converging understanding of the issues at play is likely to contribute to an improved coherence of the distributed decisions of these actors

This interest is fuelled by the recognition that there is a‘translation problem'appareen in foresight approaches that predominantly rely on broad participatory processes, namely the translation of shared collective problem perceptions and visions into actual decisions of individuua actors and organisations.

This may have been a wise decision in order to ensure the widespread agreement to the strategy, if this is seen as a first step only towards establishing a more strategic and open governance culture. 6. Conclusions The innovation policy foresight

when the decision was taken to launch a participatory foresight and strategy process. To conclude, it is certainly true that the foresight

and Lau (2003,2) refer to‘reflexive social institutions'as central agents charged with the responsibility to make‘reasonable decisions about the future...

as steering and decision-shaping and of politics as decision-making (Johnston 2002). Foresight as well as governance is seen often as consisting of networking

guide choices and influence decisions. As with other future methods, the perspective on visioning is dependeen on the context in

or policy decisions relying primarily upon intuitive sources of knowledge. That need no longer be the case.

Stagegaat approaches set forth explicit decisions to be sequenced toward particular ends (e g.,, new product development. Furthermore, we see organizations going the next step to require specific analyses and outputs at each stage.

which to base particular technology management decisions comes to know them. S) he develops understanding of their strengths and limitations,

and, thus, how best to use this derived knowledge to make better decisions. In this way technology intelligence gains credibility as a vital decision aid.

The Model T analogy carries over here too (loosely) the availability of this standard vehicle enables an efficient infrastructure to develop around it.

Likewise, the established technology decision framework constitutes the fourth factor needed for QTIP-decision process standardization.

From this digest of the company's open R&d face, we pose the action question for managerial decision.

Mandate explicit technology information products be provided for decision stages in such processes.!Provide each researcher, development engineer, project manager, intellectual property analyst, etc. with direct, desktop access to a couple of most useful S&t information databases.!

took a decision in principle on the structural development of the public research system. This decision spurred the two main funding agencies theacademy of Finland

and the Finnish funding agency for technology and Innovation (Tekes) to carry out Finnsight 2015, a joint foresight exercise that would provide inputs to this strategy,

when the Government took a decision in principle on the structural development of the public research system at large.

In this decision, the Government emphasised that the research system is to be developed in its entirety, with the aim of improving the quality and relevance of research and development activities.

Furthermore, this decision obliged the Academy of Finland2 and the Finnish funding agency for technology and Innovation3 (Tekes) to deepen their collaboration in the context of funding activities and other R&i instruments,

Finally, the Decision stated that the Science and Technology policy Council of Finland (STPC) should develop by the end June 2006 a national strategy for establishing Strategic Centres of Excellence in Research and Innovation.

In effect, the Government's decision ascribed new tasks to the Academy of Finland and Tekes.

when the Government's decision was known to be forthcoming. At this stage, Raimo Väyrynen the President of the Academy of Finland,

and decisions on key matters (e g. approval of project plans, definition of panel titles and appointment Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:11 03 december 2014 990 A. Salo et al. of panel chairmen).

Second, a deliberate decision was taken not to establish panels based on traditional industry clusters (i e. forest industries, construction), partly in view of earlier cluster-oriented studies:

however, the decisions as to which candidates would be invited were taken by the Core group. This made it possible to ensure that several dimensions of balance (including gender, regions, representation of scientific fields, technological areas,

when the Government took decisions towards the implementation of a national strategy in which the establishment of Strategic Centres of Science,

since the decision will belong to the political arena. It can simply be considered that the actors of the programming arena have contributed to the tasks of the strategic orientation arena

and 12th 2009 in the framework of the ANR-OGM COBINA research project. 10 Decision announced by Ilse Aigner, federal ministry for agriculture, on April 14th 2009.

critical decisions in real time. Q David Snowden, director of IBM's Cynefin Centre for Organisational Complexity in Cardiff, Wales, advocates a form of what he calls bimmunizationq against the shocks of a constantly changing business environment.

when making technology decisions may be an appropriate strategy. The abstract is valuable because it questions conventional wisdom

In the process of generating the list it is likely that the types of information needed to make decisions will also be collected.

The positioning of individual projects in the framework clarifies the methodological decisions and the rationales of stakeholder engagement.

when decisions are made. Almost all the analysed projects have outcomes that can be characterised as consensual.

The whole point of FTA is to better inform our decisions, and this involves knowledge of historical and contemporary dynamics and developments,

often stemming from the fact that much FTA work is conducted under pressure to provide results to inform urgent decisions.

and a set of rapid decisions being made, as the need for concrete plans becomes pressing.

creation of plans to inform decisions in the present day and near future concerning actions to shape the future.

This can be seen as a reflection of the growing complexity of S&t decisions, which is associated with such factors as the combination of multiple scientific and technological knowledge bases in many 7 Naisbitt 36,

and those which involve controversial decisions about risks and impacts of development (for example, nuclear technology,

and who often have an almost innate suspicion of politicians that make decisions affecting them.

Since these decisions and actions involve many actors, there is often need for concerted action, and shared visions of what futures to seek

working to create decisions and action within it that can contribute to the construction of the future.

as decisions are made about how to represent current activities and how far to retain material produced in earlier phases of the programme.)

and in turn used for formulating explicit priorities, recommendations and decisions. In the Nordic H2 energy foresight, the appropriation of the knowledge from the foresight process into various stakeholder organisations was seen as being accomplished through such activities as pilot projects

so that they can seriously incorporate the thinking of the workshop in their own decision-A. Eerola,

the assumptions and decisions that have gone into the posits, than could be gleaned from reading reports.

Our KM decisions are undertaken from a limited evidence base; we do not know how far the quality of FTA EXERCISES is impaired,

and the logic underpinning specific decisions in more detail. There are also opportunities for action (and action research.

Create Knowledge and Make Decisions, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1999.36 J. Naisbitt, Megatrends, Warner Books, New york, 1982.37 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan,

economic and juridical decisions in a dialogue process with the political authorities. Governance and regulatory concepts imply a modified description of what regulation is and how it works, where the regulatory limits of state authority and the potential of society to influence

which decisions are implemented (or not. The analysis focuses on the formal and informal actors involved in decision making

and implement such decisions. Good governance assures 9 that corruption is minimised the views of minorities are taken into account

and civil society organisations to the public or those who will be affected by decisions taken and consequent actions,

which means that decisions taken and their implementation are done in a manner that follows rules and regulations.

and directly accessible to all who will be affected by such decisions, and their implementation 5. Responsiveness which means that institutions

or are affected by the policy decisions taken''(p. 3). The newgovernance and stakeholder approach has various implications for the relationships between the society, corporate industrial activities and public governance.

quality of social life has given rise to pressures from a number of activist groups for social participation in decisions

and society Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is a critical cross-connecting theme regarding democracy and participation in shaping corporate decisions.

and make decisions about them through constructive dialogue with regulators, the local community and activists.

when making investment decisions. SRI plays an important part in creating corporate and public awareness about CSR issues

The assumption that CSR can be defined as business decision linked to ethical values 37 presupposes that stakeholders

Thus issues underlying social reaction to new technologies and the undisclosed ways in which industries take decisions must be resolved.

all drugs allowed Human decisions change because of the Internet advisory capacity Slow down in the world population from development Science

Decisions therefore need to be taken. In general, these can be gathered based on information by using a broad range of advanced tools

In general, the decision to undertake a trip is motivated by very different factors drawn from all fields relevant in daily life,

So, a broad range of rather different FTA METHODS is used in transport planning to improve the quality, robustness and legitimacy of decisions.

also termed multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) or multi-objective decision-making. MCA is structured a decision-making tool developed

a crucial basis for the political decision to realise the project, would have been worsened significantly. A structurally closed method alone, here the CBA, is not able to cope with such a known unknown.

a decision was made on what to include or what to exclude. This decision is always based on an explicit or implicit prioritisation,

a step that is based invariably on normative positioning, on preferences, values, norms, and their changes over the course of time.

and master all aspects of the decisions they make. Here, however lies a hidden risk in using numerical values to describe possible future events.

available information might lead to hasty decisions. Some alternatives might be disregarded altogether and the decision-makers might be tempted to focus on a particular scenario.

and decisions taken earlier 6. These emerging irreversibilities reduce the complexity of the situation 7. How do emerging irreversibilities affect the actors operating in the field?

In fact, one of the core objectives of a city plan is to take decisions in the present time in order to correctly guide urban activities in the future for the benefit of its citizens.

On the one hand, most foresight exercises by social scientists are usually based on general narratives that are intellectually stimulating but rarely of much help to the physical planner for making decisions in the urban realm.

In this scenario, the governance model is managed by a strong centralised power base (probably the State) that makes major decisions regarding the pattern of urban development to be implemented by regional and local authorities.

its major drawback Figure 6 Scenario C‘‘back to basics''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 325 being the threat of majorities imposing decisions on minority

and allows one to study the impact of different possible decisions, i e. to explore various future scenarios at different degrees of detail,

as complementary and supportive instruments of discussion and decision. FTA should help Law and not transform itself into Law.

or probable technology impacts in decisions already at an early stage is part of the basic concept of technology assessment.

and their results are expected to find consideration in practical decisions. It is no exaggeration to say that the known methodological problems of technology assessment come to a head here. 3. Nanotechnology Nanotechnology is among the most prominent emerging technologies,

Are there approaches to let it become part of decisions which are taken already at early stages of an R&d project about its objectives,

and are intended to serve as decision aids for strategy building and planning in organisations that depend on

The communicative part of the process supports thinking about the unknown future, provides knowledge for more informed decisions