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regular updating to inform sequential decision-making). But this of course within the confines of linear innovation processes. 2. 2. Adaptive planning The type of (self-criticism levelled in the closing part of the previous section is in no way new to the foresight community,
A key dichotomy to adaptive planning is the one between one-stage vs. sequential decision-making. The decision-making we have in mind here is of strategic character,
authoritative texts on the subject fail to explicitly include sequential decision-making as a way for dealing with uncertainty. 9 Doing so they turn down to include in a rational decision framework,
as an alternative or complement to various one-shot decision options, the possibility of sequential decision-making, designed to exploit progressively improved understanding as time goes by.
unless accompanied by the flexibility inherent in a well-trained cadre of fire-fighters. 2. 2. 2. Sequential decision-making and adding adaptive options The fire example is also useful for starting off the discussion on one-shot vs. sequential
On the other hand, the most cited pioneering work on sequential decision-making was published as early as 1968 by Gupta and Rosenhead 22.10 This does not,
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