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In parallel, given that developments in the above spheres are associated strongly with the evolution of‘participatory knowledge societies',this paper presents an interpretation of foresight process impacts within a conceptual framework that attempts to characterise such societies.
which they promote the development of'participatory knowledge societies'.'The paper is based primarily on research carried out during the preparation of a Phd thesis entitled Assessing the contribution of Foresight to a more participatory knowledge society.
The research mainly involved a literature review of available documentation on past and present foresight programmes and their results. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Knowledge society; Foresight impacts; Impacts assessment; Logic model; Networking; Actors'alignment 1. Introduction The present article presents results to date2 from research leading towards the production of a Phd thesis entitled Assessing the contribution of Foresight to a more participatory knowledge society.
This topic is of specific interest due to the fact that no common evaluation and assessment approach for foresight exercises has been developed to date.
These two‘pillars',the‘knowledge society'and‘participatory governance',can become the common framework in which to assess
which foresight exercises are implemented and the identification of many of the characteristics of emerging knowledge societies which foresight can affect in both anticipated and unanticipated ways.
As a starting point, a conceptual framework is presented which outlines the major characteristics of emerging knowledge societies. This is based on a review of the available literature.
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 knowledge societies are to flourish. Given this, there is need to develop a model capable of describing
such as the evolution of knowledge societies and participatory governance systems, and the lower level sets of goals that have to be attained
and goal attainment levels. 2. A conceptual framework to characterise emerging knowledge societies The findings of the literature review on the major characteristics of the emerging knowledge societies suggest that the characteristics
what is promoted by a‘knowledge society'is required to enhance participatory governance and vice versa, while foresight impacts seem to relate to both sets of developments.
They associate the increasing role of knowledge in the emerging knowledge societies with the increased density
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 capital as key factors underpinning the more technical features of the knowledge-based economy and the realisation of a‘knowledge society'.
The literature suggests that the emerging knowledge societies are also‘risk societies',characterised by decision-making conducted within an environment of increasingly uncertain or incomplete knowledge.
'at the same time it is promoted by a‘knowledge society'via support for the development of more informed publics.
Thus, some of the factors enhancing a‘knowledge society'(social capital, networking, informed publics) seem to be necessary to cope with a‘risk society'.
and risk societies are synthesised into a conceptual framework describing a more participatory‘knowledge society'.'This conceptual framework is illustrated in Fig. 1. 5 The three main groups of characteristics are illustrated by the three inner circles.
6 is shown by the lines connecting the factors. 3. Contribution of foresight to the emerging knowledge societies The above conceptual framework facilitates the identification of areas where foresight impacts may contribute to the strengthening
(or weakening) of the conditions enhancing the development of a more participatory‘knowledge society'.'The identification of such areas was the subject of the second part of 5 This conceptual framework will be validated via interviews with experts in relevant fields. 6 For an analysis of the major findings of the literature review,
The available literature7 on foresight impacts notes that it is mainly the foresight process impacts that contribute to certain characteristics of the emerging‘knowledge society'.
Policy-making in the emerging knowledge societies needs to take account of uncertainty and lack of knowledge. It has to engage all interested and potentially affected stakeholders in this endeavour.
since it deals with uncertainty by requiring the development of alternative Fig. 1. Conceptual framework for the emerging‘knowledge societies':
and alliances needed within a knowledge society by engaging actors with different backgrounds, skills and perspectives in new forms of social interaction and networking, typically working towards a common purpose.
and society both crucial developments if the emerging knowledge societies are to cope with social, environmental and intellectual complexity.
Based on the above discussion, foresight processes contribute to the emergence of‘knowledge societies'in terms of: Knowledge creation, absorption and diffusion and through these to the increasingly dominant role of knowledge;
'4. From the conceptual framework to an objectives hierarchy The conceptual framework used to characterise emerging knowledge societies
and identify those elements affected by foresight exercises can be regarded as a generic objectives model for foresight exercises likely to contribute to a more participatory‘knowledge society'.
to develop an impact assessment framework based on a‘logic model'approach which links the generic goal of a participatory knowledge society with the reported impacts of framework exercises.
This approach Fig. 2. Objectives hierarchy for foresight exercises contributing to a more participatory‘knowledge society'.'545 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 has to be modified,
which these processes are embedded (including the state of development of extant‘knowledge societies').'The focus thus shifts from what happens within a foresight system (Fig. 3a) to a new focus on the way a foresight system affects,
and criteria that govern the design and implementation of foresight programmes capable of contributing to a more participatory‘knowledge society'.
then the possibility of building a common impact assessment framework for foresight exercises based on their contribution to a more participatory‘knowledge society'irrespective of their specific context
b) coping with greater Fig. 5. An impact assessment framework for foresight systems capable of enhancing a more participatory‘knowledge society'.
and collaborating technologies. 9. Conclusions Analysis of the major characteristics of the emerging knowledge societies suggest that the characteristics
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557‘knowledge society'are required also to enhance participatory governance and vice versa,
The examination of foresight process impacts within a conceptual framework characterising participatory‘knowledge societies'provides indications that foresight can contribute to the emergence of such societies in terms of:
'This suggests that it is possible to assess foresight exercises in terms of their contribution to more participatory‘knowledge societies,
if foresight exercises are to result in impacts in line with the evolution of participatory‘knowledge societies'.'It also helps in the identification of external factors affecting the success of the foresight system as a whole.
The self-enforcing circle of knowledge society characteristics, foresight impacts and participatory governance, Paper presented at the 9th ICTPI conference, Santorini, June 18 21 2006.2 K. Cuhls,
The theoretical framework of the barometer is based on the evolution of economies from industrial development phase to sustainable knowledge society.
i e. from an information society into a knowledge society and from that towards a knowledge-value society.
from an information society into a knowledge society and from the knowledge society stage towards a knowledgevaalu society and towards the society fulfilling the requirements of sustainable development.
In conjunction with the reform of the Finnish information society strategy, the knowledge society is defined as one where knowledge
The knowledge society produces commodities of high knowledge value. In technology barometer, the indicators of knowledge society assess the gearing of the human and intellectual capital investments towards science and technology
the applications of information and communications technologies, and the outcomes of these investments as R&d productivity.
The knowledge-value society refers to an advanced formthat has developed froman information society via a knowledge society,
Judging by the indicators of the next phase, knowledge society, the Nordic countries led by Sweden, retain their strong positions albeit with smaller margins,
competence and knowledge generation, knowledge society development, innovative society and sustainable development. The first part sets out the respondent groups'assessments concerning the techno-scientific competence prospects and young people's interest in a number of professions.
3. 2. Knowledge society development 3. 2. 1. Investment in research and product development 3. 2. 2. Information and communication technologies ICT expenditure The use of information
. Young people's interest in certain professions 4. 3. Knowledge society development 4. 3. 1. Opinions regarding the standard of research and technical development in Finland 4. 3. 2
development Knowledge society development Innovative society Sustainable development 1185 T. Loikkanen et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 References 1 M. Nardo, M. Saisana, A. Saltelli, S. Tarantola, A. Hoffman, E. Giovannini, Handbook
European knowledge society foresight: The EUFORIA Project synthesis report, Report to the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living Conditions, Working Conditions and Industrial Relations, October, 2003.2 K. Cuhls, Government foresight activities
and may miss crucial emerging attributes of research and research actors in the knowledge society''.''A number of foresight exercises have addressed actors.
and generated a number of debates on the future of information and communication technologies and the development of a knowledge society in Europe.
Sub-categories (A b c) to classify Domains of Interest 1. Society & Culture Social Norms, Education, Information & Knowledge society Demographics, Urbanization, Population Health & Migration Equity, Ethical
, interrestrial visitors, alliance, eco-collapse, biotech Increased impact of converging technologies on social life Natural language codifications becomes available allowing people communicate globally New s&t paradigms for knowledge society
According to the author, foresight needs a paradigm shift in the Knowledge society, overcoming the epistemic models of FTA that inherently assume a world that evolves as an extrapolation of the past,
if we also assume that these societies are transforming towards knowledge societies where innovation is an important economic factor.
building policy options into a scenario for development in a global knowledge society, Futures 37 (2005) 813 831.74 R. Johnston, Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight, Foresight 14 (1
i) policy and governance,(ii) international Industrial r&d,(iii) knowledge society and (iv) environmental sustainability; 5. Positioning the scenario snapshots within the defined framework.
The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises to assess the degree to which they promote the development of‘participatory knowledge societies.'
'The paper presents a conceptual framework outlining the major characteristics of emerging knowledge societies, based on a review of the available literature.
and challenges are prodding European universities to undergo a series of reforms to position themselves as relevant players in the knowledge society.
2004) directed to the application of converging technologies to development of a Europeea knowledge society. This report contains the pragmatic definition:
as well as practical orientattion contained in the Handbook of Knowledge society Foresight (Miles et al. 2002) and in Godet (2001).
Miles, I.,Keenan, M. and Kaivo-Oja, J. 2002) Handbook of Knowledge society Foresight. Manchester: Prest.
population in Asia and Africa Knowledge society Increase in knowledge-intensive services, commodity knowledge, digital divide Changing values Pluralism of lifestyles,
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