for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Edificio Expo, Calle Inca Garcilaso, 3, E-41092 Seville, Spain d Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy
forecasting and technology assessment approaches foresight is perhaps the most comprehensive one suitable for providing policy support to address major societal challenges.
not only to identify the promising technological pathways, but also to engage relevant stakeholders and create common visions into action 2, 3. Furthermore,
foresight processes can also become a pertinent design phase for the creation of new value networks that are based on the novel combinations of technologies, organisational partnerships and institutional arrangements.
and rationalist technology-focused approaches towards the recognition of broader concerns that encompass the entire innovation system,
and final outcomes 8. The systemic understanding of innovation processes has challenged conventional technology driven forecasting practices and called for new participatory foresight approaches that address also the consideration of diverse perspectives, formation
not only to identify the promising technological pathways but also to engage relevant stakeholders and create common visions
foresight processes can often be seen as a pertinent design phase for the creation of newvalue networks that are based on novel combinations of technologies, organisational partnerships and institutional arrangements.
Foresight Canadae Informative Identification of emerging and frontier technology domains addressing subjects such as future fuels, bio-health innovation, geo-strategic systems, animal
Instrumental The outputs were used to contribute to a joint security technology initiative of Canada as well as strategic S&t investments in the Defence R&d Canada Centre for Security Science.
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research Areag 21 Informative Identification and SWOT analysis of socio-techno-economic trends, drivers and challenges;
and the priority setting of science and technology based on technology foresight. Extensive There was an extensive engagement of diversified stakeholders from government, academia and industry.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 257 Table 1 (Continued) Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement National Technology roadmap in Korea Informative Learning about the technology
In addition, TRM teams (in total 74 teams) were set up to draw TRMS for key technologies in the second stage.
Autonomous Each TRM team consists of around 10 technology experts from industries, academic circles and research circles.
and identified 182 future strategic technologies. Fixed The methodology was fixed at the beginning. Extensive There are broad engagement of diversified stakeholders from government, academia and industry.
NTFC aims to provide also necessary information for making five-year plan of science & technology development.
Consensual NTFC has identified lots of key technologies in 9 research fields based on the Delphi survey. Fixed The methodology was fixed at the beginning.
Technology foresight towards 2020 in China Informative TF2020 aims to provide necessary information for making long term strategy for science and technology development in China,
and identified 734 key technologies in 8 research fields based on the Delphi survey. Fixed The methodology was fixed at the beginning.
a term put forward by Castells 15 to describe a society built on technologies of information storage, retrieval,
characterised not only by convergence of technology and by exchange of information other many different networks,
and communication technologies (ICT) can make to the economy, society and personal quality of life, "and the ICT priority has the largest budget share of the current European RTD Framework programme (FP7:
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area (2002 2005) was an FP5 IST Thematic Network coordinated by JRC-IPTS
5 Japan is the pioneer of technology forecasting and foresight, and has completed 8 times technology foresight activities
when over one thousand top scientists participated in the work ranging from technology selection, priority setting, subject arrangement, resource distribution,
and generated a number of debates on the future of information and communication technologies and the development of a knowledge society in Europe.
the‘‘Technology Trajectory''concept developed by FISTERA was used by industry and academia as a‘‘thinking tool''.
A review of FISTERA by NISTEP underlined the relevance of FISTERA's approach to formulate national science and technology policies also in Japan 24.
The Foresight project conducted in Canada through a series of collaborative projects aimed at emerging and frontier technology domains that could be important to national policy development process for the next ten years.
and Technology agenda that could be aligned with the US Department of Homeland Security as part of the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North america.
The outcomes of consensual and instrumental technology foresight activities in Asian countries such as Japan, Korea and China have played increasingly important role in the policy-making process for science & technology and innovation.
the 8th technology foresight provided important support for making the 3rd basic plan for science and technology of Japan.
and technology development by using the knowledge generated from roadmap activity. In the UK, the Development, Concept and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) a Directorate General of the Ministry of Defence (MOD) conducted a foresight process that produced as a key output a report‘‘the DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme
, projects based on rivalling coalitions and different technological arrangements. 4. Conclusions In the past years, increasing attention has been paid to the relevance of foresight for policy-making by coming up with different characterisation and typology of different foresight projects (for instance, 7, 12,26, 27.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.7 T. Ko nno la, T. Ahlqvist, A. Eerola, S. Kivisaari
analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.8 M. Cariola, R. Secondo, Evolution in the rationales of foresight
Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-20137-EN, Seville, 2001
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area, available at: http://fistera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/(2009-11-10). 22 Future impacts of ICTS on Environmental sustainability Project, available at:
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area (FISTERA) Key Findings, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-22319-EN, Seville, 2009, available at:
id=1431 (2009-11-10). 24 A. Fujii, Foresight on information society technologies in Europe, in:
NISTEP Science & Technology trends Quarterly Review, no. 18,january 2006, pp. 24 34.25 F. Abadie, I. Maghiros, C. Pascu (Eds.),
. Introduction Future oriented technology analysis (FTA) is an umbrella term for a broad set of activities that facilitate decision-making and coordinated action, especially in science, technology and innovation policy-making.
This moves well beyond the narrow domain basic technology forecasting important though that this. Indeed, understanding the dynamics of technological change is just one part of a broader mandate.
This is in part because the innovation system is constituted by numerous social practices, networks, institutions, and stakeholders. The latter, for instance, extend well beyond the‘‘usual suspects''of R&d-performing firms and public bodies,
and practice often goes well beyond the narrow domain of technology forecasting. It is oriented to supporting the functioning and development of innovation systems,
Practically any source of insight into the dynamics of science and technology (S&t) their production, communication, application can be utilised as knowledge inputs into FTA.
Porter et al. 3 (the report of the Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group) reviewed many of the tools used
FTA's subfields include technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment, and of course futures research with its emphasis on explicating long-term alternative development prospects.
Various approaches to prioritisation (such as key technologies analysis, plotting feasibility against impact of various actions, MCA,
which is associated with such factors as the combination of multiple scientific and technological knowledge bases in many 7 Naisbitt 36,
and convergent technologies) and the extensive and far-reaching implications of increasing capabilities to transform the natural and human environments (giving rise at one extreme to concerns about threats to human existence
and with large-scale use of new technological knowledge). Even technocratic FTA has to confront the likelihood that no single organisation will itself contain expertise on all of the matters that bear intimately on a specific set of S&t issues it will be necessary to go out to a wider set of communities.
and other technological solutions to the climate change crisis as opposed to change in lifestyle and corporate practice);
and impacts of development (for example, nuclear technology, or the location of renewable energy projects such as windfarms and biofuel plants).
One is need the to avoid alienating the scientific and engineering professions, whose numbers and organisation have grown,
Policymakers thus sought more transparency in decision-making, with foresight, technology assessment, and key technologies approaches coming to the fore, alongside other tools such as research evaluation and impact assessment.
Enlisting those involved in the process in action: the aim is embed to the knowledge that has been generated in the programme into theirownorganisations and practices.
Jaspers et al. 16 contrast two‘‘ideal types''technological knowledge management and participatory knowledge management (TKM and PKM, respectively.
and knowledge flows happening (e g. in technology transfer), that it is hard to shift. The critique of this terminology is mentioned here to highlight‘‘knowledge''as a property of knowing individuals.
from which it is possible to reverse engineer at least some of the knowledge that informed the scenario work.
it cannot simply be transferred like a document or technological artefact. People can gain knowledge from the act of interpreting, reading, reverse engineering texts and other artefacts;
and they can also gain knowledge by examining nature. Knowledge is deposited not simply in texts and machines,
The agents in question may well make use of technological aids and texts notably whiteboards and flip-charts on which diagrams
Often, something like the STEEPV approach in which people are asked to identify factors and issues under the headings social, technological, economic, environmental, political,
For instance, there is the distinction between technological and participatory KM (16; and another differentiation between KM strategies emphasising codification (these are centred ON IT systems, with extensive organisation of data and information resources,
The labels of these two dichotomies are imperfect technology can be and is used in PKM,
Technology Roadmapping and other ways of visualising future prospects are supported by improved tools, and Delphi and other methods for eliciting expert opinion are frequently put online.
This is not an issue of technology versus interaction, since IT can be used to support activity at all poles of Popper's diamond.
for example, with more qualitative analysis required to explore possible factors shaping take off points, ceilings, novel applications of the technology that is diffusing, and so on.
But qualitative speculation about how and how far new technologies may be used will also do well to be grounded in terms of available understanding (i e. models) of product cycles and diffusion curves.
''or face it directly (as implied by the slogan of‘‘anticipatory democracy''and the characteristics of constructive technology assessment).
Experts (engineers, designers, social analysts, political actors) are seen as possessing particularly valued-and sometimes privileged knowledge.
In the UK, there had been major scenario work on strategies for developing a competitive edge in nanotechnology and literature/expert surveying of social issues associated with this field, in the early years of the present century.
and Royal Academy of Engineering launched a major consultation exercise exploring risks as well as opportunities. These bodies set up an independent working group,
involving nanoscience and engineering, social science, ethics, consumer protection and environmental interests. The working group issued a call for written evidence,
and roadmapping conducted for ISTAG (the Information society Technologies Advisory Group) of the EC 26. The Ami work had focused on the benefits of the emerging ubiquitous IT systems,
SWAMI took a more critical approach to the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical implications surrounding such issues as privacy, control of information, and identity.
and vulnerabilities associated with the use of Ami technologies and services. The project received EC funding presumably
the main report was Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering 27; the dissemination and follow-up to this is described (ands updated) at http://www. nanotec. org. uk/whathappen. htm (accessed 29/07/09;
the earlier studies mentioned in the text are the‘‘Taylor Report''(Advisory Group On Nanotechnology, 2002) 25 and (40 see also 41.
and trust Ami technology.''''12 The dark scenarios were developed, via workshop and expert group analysis,
on the basis of posits about technology development (how realistic these are given current knowledge and activities) and about possible outcomes (have similar things actually occurred).
Efforts to engage wider stakeholder communities in such deliberation as in the nanotechnology exercise remain rare (and even that exercise stopped short of deconstructing available scenarios
Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field & new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.4 R. Johnston, Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis, in:
Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology, Oakhill Press, Greensboro, 1997 (available at http://www. josephcoates. com/2025 pdf. html (accessed 29/07/2009)).
a case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (9)( 2009) 1208 1221.13 I. Miles, UK Foresight:
. Kivisaari, R. Koivisto, Management of foresight portfolio analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.15 E. Eriksson
, Integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies, Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176.25 Advisory Group on Nanotechnology, New dimensions for manufacturing:
a UK strategy for nanotechnology, London, Department of Trade and Industry, 2002 while the original webpage for this text widely cited as‘‘The Taylor Report''has been removed,
IPTS-ISTAG, European commission, Luxembourg, 2001.27 Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering, Nanoscience and Nanotechnologies:
''Nanotechnologies and the royal society and royal academy of engineering's inquiry, Public Understanding of Science 16 (3)( 2007) 345 364.40 S. J. Wood, R. Jones
, A. Geldart, The social and economic challenges of nanotechnology, Swindon Economic and Social science Research council, 2003 (available at:
http://www. esrcsocietytoday. ac. uk/ESRCINFOCENTRE/Images/Nanotechnology tcm6-1803. pdf (accessed 29/07/09)).41 S. J. Wood, R. Jones, A. Geldart, Nanotechnology:
*Denis Loveridge b, Ozcan Saritas b adg Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Calle Inca Garcilaso 3, 41092 Seville, Spain
but in human societies it has perceptual and physical components infecting matters relating to society, science and technology, economics, ecology, politics and value/norms:
and technology development and economics always prevails, instead. The history of governance is concerned mostly with how the public's perception of technological innovation has grown over time.
The relationship between advances in technology and human social development was established during the Enlightenment well before the notion of‘economics'was born as a cultural invention, rather than as a pseudo-objective science.
More recently, the pace of migration of new science and technology (S&t) has increased under the influence of the widespread use of new socioeconomic communication technologies and the globalisation of the world markets.
slow running unease with the assumption that all science and technology were‘good things 'and that human mental plasticity would always adapt to them,
and technology, has been accompanied by a growing rejection of technological determinism. H g wells and Aldous Huxley were among the earliest authors to challenge the conventional mantra,
However, it was probably the use of the fission nuclear weapons to end WORLD WAR II that gave added impetus to the questioning of the role of science and technology in human development.
both organisations introduced rules for technological assessment, although with less formal attempts to assess the social accounting cum auditing of business activity.
Technology assessment (TA) has diverged into environmental impact analysis (EIA), strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) andconstructive TAWHILE otherprocesses include energy analysis (firstdevelopedbysoddy) andlife cycle analysis (LCA).
Similarly, the continuing pressure for the public participation in science and technology decision-making processes, elsewhere called a‘democratic deficit'and coming from Greenpeace, the Friends of the Earth, the ETC Group,
-Avoid the assumption that people have infinite plasticity towards new technology. -Increase trust between policy makers, business and the general public,
when products and services based on new technologies are rejected when they are launched or soon afterwards. -Create policy processes amenable to current
Implicitly, sustainable development recognises the need for technology to develop solutions that conserve the Earth's resources,
User-centred innovation assumes that user participation may help to prevent technological deadends reduce dependency on vendors
and promote universal interoperable technology when innovation processes are shaped by the social environment. CSR brings wider societal concerns and values, such as human rights, ethics and corruption, into business strategy and decision making.
Indexes such as FTSE4GOOD Index, 4 Domini 400 Social Index and Dow jones Sustainability Index played a crucial role in the commercial breakthrough that SRI has seen over the last decades due to the fact that they allow benchmarking between the performance
and science and technology. Their aimis to ensure thatmnes operate in harmony with the policies of the countries where they operate.
Factors such as public awareness of industrial and technological risk, growing instances of social resistance to new technologies,
Hence it is important to be clear that there is a need for emerging technologies to be subject to social scrutiny.
Firms will need to focus on themes like creativity, breakthrough innovation, entrepreneurial solutions to great challenges, like pandemics and climate change,
to understand and to have a say on new technological choices in appropriate settings, may be ready and willing to exert their own right in decision making processes
The conditions for democratic governance of technology and innovation need to be acknowledged and discussed. Rather than just opening dialogue between science and society solely in terms of environmental or health impacts, there is a need to tackle broader social concerns such as ethical and cultural values, power relations,
Thus issues underlying social reaction to new technologies and the undisclosed ways in which industries take decisions must be resolved.
1. Rapid and accelerating technological progress in pervasive fields such as microelectronics, ICTS, biotechnology, new materials, fuel cells and nanotechnologies. 2. Increased financial, trade and investment
technology, environment, natural resources, biomedical aspects, institutional and legal matters as well as the socioeconomic aspects.''Davitaya 41 enlarged Evan's definition describing,
and scientific breakthrough are pseudo-random, if not totally random events in time and nature. In contrast innovation is the widespread use of an artefact, a social process in the widest sense,
The greater acknowledgement of the co-evolution of technology and society, as well as the claim that FTA practices should be submitted to interpretation of their significance by the relevant disciplines of the social sciences
For this purpose, looking at the survey results we suggested a STEEP (Social-Cultural, Science & Technology, Energy, Ecology and Economy,
Shift to digital technology; Trend toward ever smaller, more mobile and more powerful computation-communications devices,
Human aging breakthrough; Solar flare, asteroid impacts, discovery of an alien; Autonomous computers; The attacks of September 11, 2001,
erosion of traditional family Return of family Spiritual revolution Technology: rapid progress of ICT and biotech End of Moore's Law 100 years life expectancy Environment:
They can take many forms such as‘technological discontinuities'.'According to at least one analyst 14, technological discontinuity is represented in a new technology
or in the repackaging of a set of existing technologies that result in quickly obsoleting a product or service.
An example from the 1960s is the introduction of the electronic calculator. In a very short time, slide rules and mechanical calculators disappeared and, in some cases,
or find ways to use the new technology. Another more recent example is that of using the Internet and the tcp ip protocol to transport voice calls.
This application of the Internet represents a technological discontinuity for traditional telephone companies and provides an opportunity for small entrepreneurs to enter the telephone business with relatively little investment.
In general, the Internet and the Web represent technological discontinuities for many sectors and thus both create new opportunities
and expose potential threats for those attached to old or inflexible technologies. As just one example,
Another series of examples have emerged recently in the excellent work by Social Technologies, based in the USA.
Advances in nanotechnology, genomics and quantum computing, if realised within the next decade, could fundamentally alter our ways of making materials,
or in technology terms, the speed of take up of‘‘Mosaic''(precursor to Netscape) as the first Internet browser in 1993,
and signs usually associated with early developments in technologies, societal innovations, conflicts, origins of conflicts, etc. that while not easily verifiable from a present day perspective.
The growing importance of nanotechnology was first apparent as early as 1986 when Eric Drexler issued his first book on the subject. 4 http://www. metsafoorumi. fi/dokumentit/newsletter3 05. pdf. 5 http://hosting. fountainpark. com/strategysignals/.
, Moral & Legal Issues 2. Science & Technology Science Culture & Discoveries Technology Progress Innovative, Transformative Applications & Products 3. Energy Current Energy Use
it is rather clear that trends involving technology change and uncertainties about environmental, climatic and energy systems change are on the top of respondents minds.
and home-based healthcare increase Science & Tech. 77 More multi-disciplinary and e-science GM disease resistant plants and microbes for energy Automatisation and robotics growth
Increased surveillance smart security, disruptive surveillance technology big business Energy 42 Peak oil Growth of renewable energy:
Science and Technology; Energy; Ecology and Economy; and Geopolitics and Security (STEEP. Furthermore, high impact assessment is more prevalent among the more highly experienced respondents(>10 years.
This distribution and differentiation could be a result of how recent technology challenges such as genetically modified organisms have attracted more intense controversy in Europe than in other regions
Technology improvements are seen to be accelerating and pervasive; Infrastructure stress and threats to stability are likely to continue or intensify;
competences Ensuring equity in the development of new technologies Self-proficiency and hoarding alters social patterns Decline of motivation in the youth cohort of industrialised and aging societies Ethics in capitalism under scrutiny Growing tribalism around national,
religious and team sport identities Changes in health risk perception Ethical investment in development projects to promote sustainability Science & Tech. 46 Maturation of S, T and Humanities relationship
cultural, physical and biological improvements New investments in the Internet capacity improvement Progress in genetic therapy, stem cells and molecular medicine pharmacology Sunburst of change in vehicle technology
Examples of wild cards shocks by category A b c Society & Culture 42 Rise of dogma, e g. creativism/creationism, social resistance to technological change New diseases from pharmaceutical and space
Blockage of free trade due to a major pandemic Science & Tech. 9 Big disasters in science creation of out-of-control species, viruses, robots Disruption of technological systems Artificial intelligence passes human capacity Shocking scientific discovery challenges all hitherto received ideas, e g.,
, interrestrial visitors, alliance, eco-collapse, biotech Increased impact of converging technologies on social life Natural language codifications becomes available allowing people communicate globally New s&t paradigms for knowledge society
and people well being Human animal communication Energy 12 New transportation based on new types of flying cars on hydrogen change all traffic patterns Nano thin film solar breakthroughs
allow energy production from all surfaces fading the sun Successful nuclear fusion shifts energy to electricity and hydrogen Regression in the development because of mismanagement of energy sources Hydrogen from LG means pervasive bio-hydrogen production possible Peak oil and climate shifts decisively confirmed meaning to rapid
Energy, resource and environmental breakthroughs are included which provide a positive outlook as well as more familiar negative discontinuities;
& Tech. 13 Scientific community discredited, isolated and ostracised Accelerated ICT development in ubiquitous computation All communications are based mobile,
virtual science discredited for unreliable biased data Biochips for human implants Nanotechnology radically changes production methods
Energy 13 Energy availability increases plentiful oil and other alternatives Rapid advances in concentrated solar energy Technical breakthrough in electric energy storage Sudden stop
of research into renewable and alternative energy sources New cost-effective sources of renewable energy identified Breakthrough in hydrogen production methods require infrastructure requirements Massive failure of airlines
& Security 8 Europe becomes the most competitive economy in the world WW3 Nanotechnology and
New ethics, new freedoms, new rights and technologies out of control are cited; Also worthy of deeper probing in subsequent surveys.
but more definitive in terms of technological and ecological signals. In many areas, the weak signals if and when they become strong will signify real shifts toward new
law and life styles Dependence on anti-factual information, failing roots of knowledge and understanding Declining male fertility Human cloning Science & Tech. 33 Ubiquitous connectivity web
and robotics change human race Less usage of human brain Freedom to do any type of Research breakthrough in plant gene to create antibiotics for cancer Nano membranes allow humans swim under water without air tubes Researchers
& Security 26 Independent regions in Europe Marginalised proponents of terrorism Geopolitical conflict over fisheries and water resources Liberal counterrevolution in Iran Increased technological pressure to redefine confidentiality
and Africa Technologies out of control Changes in the gravity of the earth O. Saritas,
Detecting and analysing emerging science and technology issues: the EFMN issue analysis, Foresight 10 (2008) 6, 90 102.3 DCDC, The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme:
Jantz, Technological Discontinuities in the Library: Digital Projects that Illustrate New Opportunities for the Librarian and the Library, in:
15 Social Technologies, Discontinuity: Mobility, 2008. Available at: http://www. socialtechnologies. com/Fileview. aspx? filename=PR DISCONTINUITIES MOBILITTYV2%20ks%20mh%20eds final. pdf (last visited on:
*Cristiano Cagnin b a Australian Centre for Innovation, Australia b European commission, DG Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Spain‘‘Cassandra was a daughter of Hecuba
The setting for the interviews was the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference organised by the EU Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technology studies (IPTS) in Seville in October 2008.
The focus of the Conference was on foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools.
and Technology analysis & Strategic management 8. The large number of papers submitted in 2008 is an indication both of the central role the FTA Conference has come to play, principally for European researchers but also increasingly for researchers from around the world,
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, 2004, European communities Technical Report EUR 21473 EN. 5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis:
8 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008.
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