and consensus-building for engineering major processes of transformation. Therefore sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges.
The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.
and consensus-building for engineering major processes of transformation. Therefore sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges.
restraining urban sprawl, self-sufficiency, and new technologies). Reflecting a broader discussion on the benefit and limits of combining different methods,
if broadly conceived in technological, social, organizational and institutional terms. Hence, it will be important to be able to manage inclusion
10.1108/14636681211256071 Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer are both Senior researchers at the Karlsruhe Institute of technology (KIT), Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe, Germany.
Transport is strongly based on a modern technology-infrastructure combination. This‘‘hardware''co-evolved with what we can observe today as modern travel patterns.
Also, the technology-infrastructure systems are enabled dependent on, and by, technological developments in different areas; the most important of which might be the energy sector and the development of information and communication technologies.
So, transport is a socio-technical system that is influenced by, and interwoven with, many factors inside and beyond its boundaries.
The rapid progress in information and communication technologies enabled the application of sophisticated transport models.
There is a discussion about the potentials of discursive tools in the literature related to participative Technology assessment (pta;
pricing measures or technology incentives on travel behaviour are predictable to a very high degree.
Building on the work of the German Risk Commission (Risk Commission 2003), in the context of this paper risk is understood, in its economic/toxicological/engineering sciences definition,
Grunwald, A. 2009),‘Technology assessment: concepts and methods'',Handbook of the Philosophy of Science, Volume 9:
Philosophy of Technology and Engineering sciences, Elsevier, New york, NY, pp. 1103-45. Hanley, N. and Barbier, E. B. 2009), Pricing Nature.
, J.,van Est, R.,Joss, S.,Bellucci, S. and Bu tschi, D. 2000), EUROPTA, The Danish Board of Technology, Copenhagen, available at:
About the authors Jens Schippl is a Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of technology.
jens. schippl@kit. edu Torsten Fleischer is a Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of technology.
He serves as Deputy Head of the Department of Innovation processes and Impacts of Technology at ITAS.
In many ways, foresight techniques also originally arose out of the need to deal with unexpected events in the technology and political arenas, for example the classic Shell scenarios.
B Low-carbon technology will improve significantly in all sectors by 2050. B Prices of fossil fuels will rise
4. Technology is the key (business-as usual scenario, solutions relying on decentralised energy production and increased use of nuclear power).
and a genuine will of most members of society to work for the environment, obedience of the law, good technological know-how, abundant resources of biofuels and the infrastructure from forest to industry already in place (as a heritage from paper and pulp industry),
Be self-sufficient D Technology is the key Leading idea Eco-efficiency, diminishing energy consumption Restraining urban sprawl
high-tech products and high skill-level services most important sources of income, no energy intensive industry Demand and supply of small-scale local products and‘‘at home''services has increased significantly.
CCS technologies in use (continued) PAGE 310 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Table II Scenario/variable A Efficiency revolution B Sustainable daily
mile C Be self-sufficient D Technology is the key Urban structure Cohesive, in urban areas people move closer to central cities,
Preemptive nature conservation Nature as a source of admiration and recreation Nature as a partner Cleaning up the mess made as much as possible Relation towards technology New technology as a lever
finding new intelligent ways to use old technologies New technology as a lever and enabler, mimicking nature,
Bottlenecks hindering the growth of new business opportunities for low-emission technology and applications should be analysed and removed.
remarked on that occasion that it was a major breakthrough achievement to have committed Finland to reducing its emissions to a sustainable level by at least 80 per cent from the 1990 level by 2050.
restraining urban sprawl, self-sufficiency, and new technologies. However, the implications of the scenarios include somewhat radical elements.
except for the scenario D. Its tentative title‘‘Power from Decentralisation''was transformed into‘‘Technology is the Key''.
Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies: The case of nanotubes Rutger O. van Merkerk T, Harro van Lente 1 Department of Innovation studies, Utrecht University, P o box 80125,3508 TC, Utrecht, The netherlands
Received 13 may 2004; received in revised form 30 september 2004; accepted 1 october 2004 Abstract This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping
and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies. Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms.
By applying it to a particular application in nanotechnology, we will show that it is possible to trace the emerged irreversibilities.
To conclude, we will discuss how the analysis of early dynamics is a vital ingredient of technology assessment studies that,
By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment we will show the relevance of our method for CTA studies.
D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Emerging technology; Irreversibility; Technology assessment; Expectations; Agenda building 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.10.003 T Corresponding author. Tel.:++31 30 2537462. E-mail addresses: r. vanmerkerk@geo. uu. nl (R. O. van Merkerk) 8 h. vanlente@geo. uu. nl (H. van Lente.
1 Tel.:++31 30 2537807. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1. Introduction Assessing emerging technologies is a necessary,
although difficult task. This originates from the fact that the early phases of technological development show a great deal of fluidity and open ends,
nevertheless lead to significant future rigidities (in terms of technologies, applications and stakeholders). If one does not just await the outcomes,
when a technology is in the early stages of development, it is very hard to foresee the social impacts of the technology,
but the course of development can still be altered easily. When the technology becomes part of our economic and social system,
social impacts can be observed. However, changing/controlling the technological development becomes extremely difficult. This dilemma highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of technological developments even at very early stages.
when the technology is still emerging and not yet entrenched. Emergence is the process or event of something coming into existence.
For example, there is a visible increase in the number of linkages between the heterogeneous actors together in search of defining the newly emerging field or technology.
At a later stage technological trajectories 3 can appear but in the emergence state no
but intrinsic uncertainties inherently related to emerging technologies. Our basic claim is that in order to appreciate and to influence developments in new emerging technologies,
an understanding of the dynamics is necessary. As nanotechnology is intended the partly, partly unintended outcome of the moves of many actors in industry, research and policy,
we need insight into the emerging patterns and mechanisms. We will discuss the phenomena and develop a method for tracing them empirically (Section 2);
and we employ it in our case study. We will show that it is possible to trace emerging irreversibilities for a specific application of nanotubes (Section 3). We will conclude by placing our contribution in a historical perspective of technology assessment
and by discussing the relevance of our method for constructive technology assessment, or CTA. 2 2 Constructive technology assessment studies of nanotechnology are at the moment being performed in The netherlands.
These studies are part of a Dutch research and development programme that coordinates the efforts of leading research institutes and companies in The netherlands in the area of nanotechnology.
The preceding informal network was formed in 2001 and recently, in November 2003, it received a substantial funding of 95 Million Euro by the Dutch government,
tracing emerging irreversibilities The basic claim is that a contribution to the understanding of the emergence of technological paths can be expected by understanding the role of emerging irreversibilities in technological development.
and subsequently, a technological path could emerge. Emerging irreversibilities, therefore, are an indication and a driving force for the emergence of technological paths
i e. some stabilisation is taking place. A definition of emerging irreversibilities can be as follows: Emerging irreversibilities make it more difficult (or less easy) for actors to do something else (or easier to do something.
As a rule in emerging technologies, the stakes and the expectations are high for various actors. At the same time, the situation is very fluid,
what the technology will bring. Research institutes study a broad variety of scientific subjects and some results will be seen as promising and some not.
In 1999 a new specialised journal, the Journal of Nanoparticle Research, was established. This indicates the crystallisation of a new scientific community.
We will focus on two ingredients of technological change that are especially important in the early stages:(
3 The fact that we use the emergence of this specialised journal for this paper is the fact that nanotubes is one of the major topics in this journal.
bresearch contributions on nanoparticles, clusters, nanotubes, nanocrystals, nanolayers, and macromolecules surrounded either by gases, liquids or solids, are brought together in this single publication.
The horizontal dimension distinguishes between different core areas of technological activity: basic research and research for market applications.
These steps make up the method we employ in this paper to perform the case study. These steps are elaborated on in Section 3. The case we discuss in the next section deals with nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
We chose this application of nanotubes in electronic devices because it is as will become apparent a dynamic case among the (still) very few applications of nanotubes in electronic devices that also shows some commercial activity.
How are the technological developments from the scientific viewpoint taken up by society? How are the technological developments from the market viewpoint taken up by society?
What are the results of private companies that contribute to the realization of the technology?
What are the results from (academic research groups that contribute to the realization of the technology?
nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes Before explaining the details about nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes, we first briefly introduce the area of nanotechnology and nanotubes.
Nanotechnology is a rising star in the set of new and emerging technologies. Many countries and firms feel the need to explore
and stimulate its possibilities. The future of nanotechnology has become an important topic for technology firms, policy makers and research institutes.
Typically, when new technologies emerge, they are accompanied by promises of all sorts. Earlier examples are biotechnology, genomics and microelectronics,
or, more general, ICT. The media tell us for example, that the new technology will definitely change our lives.
It is a so-called dgeneric technologyt 12 since it can be used in all kinds of products and production processes,
Although nanotechnology is still in its exploration phase, industry, governments and research institutes already have high stakes in the future application.
and large firms invested over $2 billion in nanotechnology worldwide in 2002 13. No single definition can be given for nanotechnology,
as definitions abound 14. We define it as the ability of controlled manipulation at the nanoscale (1 100 nm) 5
in order to create revolutionary new materials and systems that relate directly to the nanoscale. The ability to control matter at such small length scales got a big push by the development and improvement of a variety of microscopes (e g.
the atomic force microscope, AFM) 6 in the mid-eighties, which made the visualisation of the atomic region more and more accessible for scientists.
Nanotechnology is seen as an enabling technology, which means that it enables different industries to improve their products,
That is, conventional technologies are needed still as well to produce the product. Nanotechnology can for example, enable precise targeting of drugs (pharmaceuticals)
or make computer screens flexible (electronic industry). In this paper we focus on a special kind of nanosized particle, the carbon nanotubes,
which has the same basic structure as the bucky ball. The term nanotube is used generally to refer to the carbon nanotube,
which can be visualised as a sheet of chicken wire, which is rolled up into a cylinder where the loose wire ends seamlessly join (Fig. 4). 7 In the remainder of this paper we will use the term dnanotubet instead of dcarbon nanotubet.
The promising developments of nanotubes, and nanotechnology in general, have led, at least according to some analysts, to a nanotechnology hype 13.
Various images about nanotechnology were brought into the world by media, spokespersons, etc. that sketch the seemingly unlimited possibilities that nanotechnology has to offer.
Typical examples are very small robots that can conduct operations inside the human body or an elevator into space based on a nanotube cable.
While these examples may be farfetched, they feed expectations by various actors in society (e g.,, the public, politicians, firms.
On the 5 1 nm is approx. 1/80,000 of the thickness of a human hair
or six hydrogen atoms in line. 6 IBM researchers (G. Binnig and H. Rohrer) received the Nobel prize for their discovery of the scanning tunneling microscope (STM).
and is therefore a powerful tool to investigate structures at the nanoscale. This discovery was the beginning of a whole range of microscopes achieving the same precision,
the nanotubes are formed directly. R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1099 other hand there are growing concerns about the development
of nanotechnology. NGOS and the media became aware of nanotechnology and addressed their concerns. Here again, we see topics that relate to the very far and speculative future such as nano-systems that control
(and reproduce) themselves, but also immediate concerns that are based on today's science, such as toxicological effects of nanoparticles 13.
After this general introduction of nanotechnology and nanotubes, we now turn to the application that will be the subject for the remainder of the paper.
A promising application of nanotubes is to use them as electromechanical8 components in nonvolatile memories. 9 Nonvolatile means that the data remains intact
when the power of the electronic device is turned off. For example, for personal computers, you can continue your work where you left it the previous day,
In the boffq state (Fig. 6), the nanotubes have a certain distance between them. The lower nanotube is semiconducting,
the upper nanotube is metallic. 10 The metallic nanotube will bend towards the perpendicular semiconducting nanotube
when both are charged electrically (electromechanical process). The nanotubes will then stay in this position due to the Van der waals forces. 11 These forces cause the nanotubes to remain their position,
even when the power is turned off, giving the memory its nonvolatile character. The positions can be determined by measuring the resistance (directly related to the flow of electrons) between the nanotubes.
In the bonq state the resistance is much lower, which allows determination between zero or one.
and patented by Fig. 4. A rolled up single sheet of carbon atoms (graphene) to visualise a single-walled carbon nanotube. 8 Electromechanical means that an electrical current can induce mechanical movement. 9 Memory,
Nanotubes can have both properties which depend on the geometry of the single-walled carbon nanotube 17.11 The Van derwaals forces are the physical forces of attraction
and repulsion existing between molecules, which are responsible for the cohesion of molecular crystals and liquids.
The intention is to commercialise this technology as soon as possible. In the hybrid solution the lower nanotube is replaced by a semiconducting structure created by common lithography techniques. 12 Then a layer of nanotubes is deposited
and the unwanted nanotubes are etched away (again with common lithography). G. Schmergel, T. Rueckes and B. M. Segal founded Nantero in 2000 (Rueckes being one of the inventors of the proof of principle.
Nantero is developing NRAMK a high-density nonvolatile random access memory chip using nanotube technology. The company expects to deliver a product that will replace existing forms of memory, such as DRAM, SRAM and flash memory, with a high-density nonvolatile duniversal memoryt 18.
This type of memory can be used in a wide variety of electronic devices (PCS, digital cameras, MP3 players, etc..
The company plays an important role in the development of nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes. 3. 1. Tracing dynamics of expectations The three levels in the framework can be specified in relation to the case.
nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories, the level of the technological field; nanotubes in electronic devices, the level of the society;
and nanotubes as part of nanotechnology. Such a case specific typology gives a focus for each level
and is therefore useful to distinguish what the boundaries are of the case. 3. 1. 1. Society The scientific developments,
and understanding of nanotubes production and characteristics13 have led to expectations on the level of the society.
A spokesperson in favour of nanotube developments is Richard Smalley (Rice university, Houston, Texas). Considering the following statements from Smalley 21, page 1:
Q With this statement Smalley stipulates (from a scientific point of view) a very bright picture for nanotubes.
Fig. 5. Architecture of suspended nanotube memory 16.12 Lithography is a common method used in the computer chip manufacturing industry to produce desired structures in materials. 13 The research agenda on nanotubes have,
controlled growth and applications of nanotubes. This also implicates that the variety of research topics has broadened.
, production capacity of single-walled carbon nanotubes) to applications and the production of the applications.
bcarbon nanotubes are already found in cars and some tennis rackets, but there is virtually no environmental or toxicological data on them.
bgovernments should declare an immediate moratorium on commercial production of new nanomaterials (editorial: which includes nanotubes)
and launch a transparent global process for evaluating the socioeconnomic health and environmental implications of the technology.
Q Arnall arrives at the same conclusion as the ETC group, which is applying the precautionary principle.
From the market side the expectations focus on the possibilities that nanotubes might have to improve or revolutionise existing products.
Already nanotubes are used to strengthen materials (e g.,, tyres or tennis rackets) and production facilities are set up to deliver the demand for nanotubes (MWNT
and SWNT) that is expected for the coming years. Arnall 13, page 14 states here (taking a market perspective:
bthe most important material in nanotechnology today. Q Such statements give rise to the belief that nanotubes have much to offer in terms of applications.
This is indeed the case when we look at how broad the application areas for nanotubes are addressed generally:
pharmaceuticals, electronic devices, material production, energy technologies, etc. Concluding, the expectations on the societal level show a contradiction in the sense that on the one hand nanotubes are used without regulation
and on the other hand there is a public call (from various groups) that regulation is needed. However, the fact that nanotubes offer great promises for various industries is acknowledged. 3. 1. 2. Technological field After the discovery of the single-walled nanotube in 1993,
possible applications of nanotubes for electronic devices came out of the scientific community 21. Using the straight tubes as wires in chips was one of the first options.
In 1998 Cees Dekker's group 31 at the Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) turned a nanotube into a transistor (the basic building block of computer chips.
This made it theoretically possible to build processors (the central computational unit of personal computers) out of nanotubes.
However, the expectations are that commercialising this option still lies far ahead (at least 10 years.
Nanotubes can also be used to emit electrons. This opens up the possibility to use them as so-called field emitters to produce flat (even flexible) displays.
The electrons emitted by the nanotube are pointed at a layer of phosphor, which as a consequence lights up.
By making an array of pixels a screen can be obtained. In 1999, Jong-min Kim et al. at the Samsung Advanced Institute of technology in Suwon Fig. 6. bonq and boffq states of a suspended SWNT crossbar 16.
Since the publication of Rueckes et al. 16, where they introduce the architecture of nonvolatile memory based on nanotubes,
it is clear that building these memories is one of the possible applications of nanotubes in electronic devices.
We already discussed how this technology works, as it is the subject of this case. Cientifica14 24 from a market perspective points out that,
when the opportunities for nanotubes in electronic devices are discussed: bbig markets, apart from materials, in which nanotubes may make an impact,
include flat panel displays (near-term commercialisation is promised here), lighting, fuel cells and electronics. This last is one of the most talked-about areas but one of the farthest from commercialisation, with one exception,
Nanotechnology should give the answers here. 3. 1. 3. Research group The expectations of using nanotubes for nonvolatile memories started with the Nature publication of Charles Lieber's group 16.
In 2002, James Heath's group at the University of California (Los angeles) reported that guiding the growth with an electric field could solve the problem of growing straight nanotubes 25.
This scientific result solved the problem of growing straight nanotubes. Deposition of nanotubes into a parallel array (as is needed to create the hybrid solution) can be done in multiple ways.
One can individually manipulate the nanotubes into the right position however due to huge amount of nanotubes that needs positioning, this is no option.
The second option is to use an electric field to grow the (straight) nanotubes onto the substrate 25 (as discussed above.
A third way is to use a flow to guide the previous made straight nanotubes into position.
Charles Lieber's group 14 Cientifica is the business information and consulting arm of CMP Cientifica, providing global nanotechnology business intelligence and consulting services to industry and investors worldwide.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1103 reported the latter method in 2001 26.
These scientific results solved the problem of deposition of the nanotubes onto a substrate. The scientific results,
as mentioned above, reinforced the expectations that nonvolatile memories could be produced. This can be shown by a statement of Ball 27 in an article where he discusses these results:
bthis proof of principle raises hopes that a nanotube lattice could form computer memory, storing one bit of information at each junction.
Here, Nantero being the only company working on this technique tries to mature the given technique (proof of principle) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
bcreating this enormous array of suspended nanotubes using standard semiconductor processes brings us much closer to our end goal of mass producing NRAM chips.
buniversal memory has been a dream for the semiconductor industry for decades we fell that Nantero's innovative approach using carbon nanotubes
bthe proprietary manufacturing approach will enable for the first time the ultra-large scale integration (ULSI) of carbon nanotube-based devices in a deep sub-micron semiconductor fabrication line.
In the near future, these innovations will allow NRAMK to be one of the first mass manufactured nanotechnology products.
During these few years Nantero received a rather extensive media attention (37 articles in total) from technology as well as business journals.
This is a clear sign that the media see Nantero as a promising company to take nanotechnology to the market.
Concluding, different developments in basic research have given the building blocks that can be used to develop nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
processes 3. 2. 1. Society Are the expectations (concerns) about the toxicity of nanoparticles (incl.
Nanotubes) taken up by policy makers and translated into programmes/regulation that reply to these concerns? Some initiatives have started over the last few years;
First, the Royal Society and the Royal Academy of Engineering in the UK have incorporated these issues into their study (commissioned by the UK government,
www. nanotec. org. uk) of nanoscience and nanotechnologgy The goal is to carry out an independent study of likely developments
and whether nanotechnology raises or is likely to raise new ethical, health and safety or social issues
handling and use of nanoparticles in industrial processes and products, as well as in consumer products. The results are expected to indicate risks to workers and consumers,
Third, the ETC group is working to develop an International Convention for the Evaluation of New technologies (ICENT),
This should create a new mechanism that will make it possible for the international community to monitor the development of new technologies whose introduction could affect (positively and/or negatively) human health
when nanotubes are grown, it is until now impossible to determine the electronic character (metallic or semiconductor) beforehand.
Therefore, after growing, you end up with a mixture of metallic and semiconductor nanotubes. This is a problem,
because often you need specific characteristics of the nanotubes in order to get a working application. To specify this example further,
Cees Dekker's group at Delft University, showed in 1998 31 that a single semiconductor nanotube could be turned into a transistor.
Without the ability to grow nanotubes with the right characteristics beforehand a processor based on nanotube transistors is impossible to produce. 3. 2. 3. Research group Restrictive factors in the development of technologies are repeating phenomena that end up on the agenda of research groups.
Scientists observe hurdles for further development of a promising application (guided by the expectations) and start to work on solving the problems at R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1105 hand.
or are still the growth of straight nanotubes, precise deposition of the nanotubes on the substrate,
and the separation of metallic and semiconductor nanotubes. Because not all problems were solved over the last years,
Nantero adapted a (proprietary) hybrid solution that allows for some errors, and metallic and semiconductor nanotubes do need not to be separated.
So, over the last few years some problems were solved and others were overcome by adapting the design.
and production (making the technology ready for commercialisation). The last part was done in collaboration with ASML,
which led to the fact that the technology is compatible with existing lithography equipment 18.
but also improving the existing technology to achieve even higher densities of suspended crossbars, which leads to larger memories.
Q At the same time, basic research groups work on fundamental insights in for example, controlled growth of metallic or semiconductor arrays of nanotubes.
in the matrix in Fig. 7. These findings also give answers to the questions as proposed in Fig. 2. Nanotubes as part of nanotechnology Next to the acknowledgement that nanotubes offer huge possibilities,
there is an open discussion on the possible toxic effects of nanoparticles (incl. nanotubes) on the environment and inside the human body.
Nanotubes as part of nanotechnology Apart from the concerns on the possible toxicity, industry started to produce nanoparticles with a strong growing increase in capacity.
The market then focuses on the possibilities nanotube applications promise to improve or revolutionise existing products.
Nanotubes in electronic devices The market focuses on a selection of promising electronic applications based on nanotubes.
The fact that current semiconductor technology will reach the physical limits soon, gives a push on the market to come up with new solutions to continue the ongoing miniaturisation in the computer chip industry.
Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Nantero tries to mature the technique (proof of concept) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
In the coming years Nantero aims at getting their product to the market and to improve the existing technology.
Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Step by step the problems around producing predetermined nanotubes and applying them for nonvolatile memories are solved (straight growth and deposition).
Nanotubes in electronic devices The academic community addresses a wide variety of electronic devices based on nanotubes. These options are based on advances in the understanding of
and the control to determine (beforehand) the characteristics of nanotubes. However, existing hurdles also restrain further developments.
that arose around nanotubes and more specifically nanotubes in electronic devices, and nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes (Fig. 8). We have shown that results of research groups directly give rise to expectations for promising applications and change the agendas for the future.
Accumulation of research results (for instance, straight growth and precise deposition of nanotubes) solves the hurdles that before hindered promising applications to become reality.
In the specific application we discussed in this paper this led (on the market side) to the realisation of a prototype of nonvolatile memories of Nantero.
Later on, Nantero showed compatibility with existing lithography equipment as a next step in the realisation of a producible technology.
and the business community that the technology (or even nanotechnology) is actually possible of producing workable products for the electronic industry.
The scientific community (related to the application of nanotubes in electronic devices) changed in the sense that since 1993 more and more attention was drawn to nanotubes.
This indicates a growing attention for various aspects related to nanotubes as part of nanotechnology. This at the societal level held discourse is marked as an emerging irreversibility.
Nanotubes as part of nanotechnology Societal discourse on nanotubes Nanotubes as part of nanotechnology Societal discourse on nanotubes Nanotubes in electronic devices Recognition of a specific set of promising applications Nanotubes
used in nonvolatile memories Nantero as a surviving central player in realising nanotube applications in nonvolatile memories Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Possibilities where opened up by scientific research results that took away hurdles in using nanotubes for electronic devices
Nanotubes in electronic devices More research groups work on similar problems related to nanotube applications Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Fig. 8. Emerging irreversibilities located within the three-level framework.
Second, sentiments at the societal level might influence the possibilities for the electronic industry to develop technologies that might receive negative publicity.
when a certain technology is received positively at the societal level. 4. Conclusions and discussion In this paper we proposed a route to deal with the intrinsic uncertainties of a new emerging field like nanotechnology.
The hopes, expectations and also the increasing social concerns raise questions about the possibilities to assess the ongoing developments.
As nanotechnology is still in the early phases of development co-construction by all possibly relevant actors is not straightforward.
insights in the fluidic situation and the dynamics of emerging technologies can be gained. Our attempt relates to the historical trend of technology assessment methods to incorporate
and exploit the actual technology dynamics 32. A brief historical digression is helpful at this point.
Technology assessment (TA) started in the late 1960s as an dearly warningt method 33, merely to inform parliaments about possible negative effects of new technologies.
In the early 1970s15 this more and more changed to a means for better policy analysis. During the 1980's, TA developed towards a policy instrument,
where TA is used to support policy-making. Nevertheless developments of TA were leading to different approaches in the United states compared to Europe.
In the late 1980s the notion of constructive technology assessment (CTA) became apparent in Europe. Many different types of CTA exist depending on the audience, phase of technological development, etc.
Nevertheless, the leading idea is to anticipate on societal aspects in an early stage of technological development to get better societal embedded technology 34.
By striving to play an active role in the 15 The first dedicated technology assessment organisation was the Office of Technology assessment (OTA)( founded in 1972.
The OTA was closely related to the United states congress, but ceased to exist in 1995. R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1108 development of dusefult applications of technology, CTA
indirectly aims at influencing the technology in development via the involved actors. We think the tracing of emerging irreversibilities is an important next step in the development of TA,
and especially in the light of constructive technology assessment. In general, CTA studies aim at assessing technological development in an active way
in order to maximise the societal embedding of the new technology. Our basic claim is that in order to appreciate and to influence developments in new emerging technologies,
an understanding of the early dynamics is necessary. As argued above, applying the proposed method helps to increase this understanding.
The same method, thus, will be useful as input for CTA studies in which the perspectives and actions of multiple heterogeneous actors are involved.
Understanding the dynamics from the different perspectives gives insight in the different points of view of the actors involved in the CTA study. 16 Finally,
we note that the emerging character of nanotechnology provides research opportunities for innovation and technology studies.
The prevailing type of study in journals and books on technology dynamics is a retrospective analysis. The drawbacks of a retrospective approach are well-known:
they tend to emphasize the dominant route that emerged as bwinnerq in the variation and selection process and,
thus, to ignore the deeply fluid character of new emerging technologies in their first stages 11.
To study nanotechnology while it is unfolding at this very moment gives the opportunity to observe (for example with the method proposed in this paper) the construction of the technology in a more symmetrical way.
To conclude, the method proposed in this paper appeared useful to organise the data and to structure it into a credible story.
By applying the method, insights are gained about the dynamics within the three levels and how the levels interact.
These insights are valuable for understanding the dynamics of a particular technology and help to trace emerging irreversibilities in the early phases of technological development.
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R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1110 35 F. W. Geels, Towards sociotechnical scenarios
Using patterns and regularities in technology dynamics, in: K. H. Sørensen, R. Williams (Eds. Shaping technology, Guiding Policy:
Concepts, Spaces and Tools, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, 2002, pp. 359 385. Rutger van Merkerk is currently a Phd student (Copernicus Institute for Sustainability and Innovation, University of Utrecht,
The netherlands) working on Constructive technology assessment of emerging technologies and nanotechnology in particular. His research focuses on characterising emerging technologies and anticipating on prospective technological developments.
He holds MS degrees in Applied Physics with a specialisation in Materials Science, and Business administration with a specialisation in Small Business and Entrepreneurship, both from the University of Groningen, The netherlands.
In his Phd thesis he examines the dynamics of expectations in the development of technology.
Since then he has been involved in a wide range of studies in the area of technology, innovation and society.
His current research focuses on prospective studies of nanotechnology. R. O. van Merkerk H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1111
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