Law tends to adapt to the passage of time through a gradual process, and hesitates to anticipate forthcoming developments.
looking at the past in order to address the present, while forgetting the future. In their efforts to establish a legal framework characterised by the fundamental values of order, stability and predictability, legislators,
looking solely to the immediate past in order PAGE 336 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 336-351, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
As Johnston (2008) noted, the objective of the first of these seminars‘‘was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice between technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.''
and social needs on the other''(Cagnin and Keenan, 2008), acknowledging thus the co-evolution of science and technology (S&t) together with society in their approach and work.
and shape technological futures (Rader and Porter, 2008). In addition, this particular community of scholars and practitioners has managed also to provide a collective definition of FTA,
case studies 3. 1 Introduction FTA ACTIVITIES, techniques and research have registered an impressive growth over the past decade.
In this respect, Saritas (2011) comments that‘‘a s the complexity of societies has increased, the scope of FTA ACTIVITIES has widened to cover a wide variety of issues.
''Furthermore, the number of studies focused on the connection between FTA and the field of social sciences and humanities has increased substantially (Barre'and Keenan, 2008.
Cagnin and Keenan (2008) have called attention to the need for a wider examination of FTA TOOLS and approaches.
which VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 337 will in turn improve the prospects for evaluating processes and outcomes''(Cagnin and Keenan,
2008). ) Despite these important developments and recommendations, little has been said about the interlinkages between Law and FTA.
In a rather unusual initiative within the general framework of legal research, The hague Institute for the Internationalisation of Law (Hiil) began in 2010‘‘a unique forward-looking exercise in the field of law:
2011) 7. As stated by its organizers and promoters, the project‘‘is based on the premise that prospective thinking about law is not only desirable
and legal systems do not become obsolete, ineffective or unjust''(HIIL, 2011). This programme (also denominated as The Law of the Future project LOTF) ventured into the study of the future by posing one fundamental question to the legal community of scholars and practitioners:‘‘
‘‘how will law evolve in the next twenty years?''''In order to attain a response (or several of them),
which it later designed a number of alternatives visions of Law in 2030. This project, most welcome for its originality
What developments are we likely to see in the coming two to three decades? What do those developments mean for national legal systems in the international legal order as a whole?''
2011). ) The objective of the think pieces was to fuel the discussion and provide the necessary material and input for the scenario construction process.
It not only contributed to the construction of the various alternative scenarios that the project had planned to present,
some of them, mind shattering) descriptions of the major forthcoming developments and PAGE 338 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 changes that the various branches
2006), the objective of these think pieces was to collect, within a legal context, a range of varied ideas about the future.
Scenario planning law scenarios for 2030. Based on the analysis of the various expert think pieces submitted,
limited to a short time span and resistant to prospective thinking and alternative planning. Despite the fact that scenarios have already been used in legal-oriented studies,
and not to problematize or present alternative visions of the future. Furthermore they were not of a legal nature (of
the continuous internationalisation of VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 339 rules and institutions or its stagnation or reverse;
or scenarios for 2030 (described along with their own basic characteristics) 13:1. The Global Constitutionalism scenario:
if'questions''HIIL, 2011). To conclude, it is important to note that, as an ongoing and dynamic project, the objective of the LOTF is to further develop these scenarios,
integrated picture and multiple perspectives on the hard problems we are facing''(Helbing, 2011). As Helbing (2011) explains,
the ultimate goal of Futurict‘‘is to understand and manage complex, global, socially interactive systems,..
speeding the present towards the future by providing knowledge about tomorrow through data about today.
The project proposes using real time data (financial transactions, health records, logistics data, carbon dioxide emissions, or knowledge databases such as Wikipedia) to construct a model of society capable of simulating what the future holds for us.
''PAGE 340 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 While the‘‘Living Earth Simulator''will‘‘require the development of interactive decentralized supercomputing that scales up to global level systems
employing a variety of perspectives and methods''(Helbing, 2011); the‘‘Planetary Nervous system''will work as global sensor network,
collecting data in real-time and allowing‘‘one to do reality mining on a global scale and to measure the socioeconomic-environmental footprint of human actions,
i e. to create a greater awareness of the possible implications of human-decision making''(Helbing, 2011).
but also different financial architectures or voting systems''(Helbing, 2011). This platform will power interactive observatories, which will be in charge of detecting
connecting the future to the present. After a given period of time, a law of this kind would go through a‘‘future verification''assessment, in
the present) by this piece of legislation. 3. 4 Law enforcement Faced with increasing budgetary constraints,
In other words, the reactive and responsive approaches that traditionally characterised the work of police VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 341 forces has been complemented with a research-based approach that strives to detect
and year-to date reports all focus on events in the past. Even alerts focus almost exclusively on incidents that occurred in the past,
and how to effectively deploy resources in front of crime, thereby changing outcomes (Beck, 2009). Predictive policing constitutes the next step in intelligence-led policing (ILP) 16,
while emphasizing the role of analysis in tactical and strategic planning (Beck, 2009). Based on comprehensive computer statistics, technology has allowed the law enforcement community to rapidly identify
a computerized crime mapping system developed by NYPD in 1993 and now used by police departments nationwide.
2005). ) As Beck (2009) explains,‘‘b y bringing all crime and arrest data together by category and neighbourhood,
Compstat revolutionized policing, enabling officers to focus their efforts in problem areas, armed with real-time information, accurate intelligence, rapid deployment of resources, individual accountability,
and relentless follow-up''(Beck, 2009) 17. It is important to bear inmind that, contrary to what some fictional movies may lead one to think (e g. the 2002 movie Minority report,
which portrays a future where criminals are caught before they commit their crimes, www. imdb. com/title/tt0181689),
/‘‘predictive''analytics are intended obviously not to target individuals for future crimes that they have not yet committed
As explained by Beck (2009: Predictive policing, like any public safety resource or tool, must be used legally and ethically.
Rather, they surface particular times and locations predicted to be associated with an increased likelihood for crime.
back in 1933 and PAGE 342 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 in a BBC broadcast program, underlined the need for professors of foresight,
arguing that‘‘we are surrounded by numerous professors of the past, but not one of the future''(Miles and Keenan, 2003).
Along these lines, I believe that Law schools would very much enrich their programs by creating the post for Professors of Legal Foresight
‘‘the tendency to be captive to the'spirit of times 'and to assume that tomorrow's problems
and visions will be very much the same as today's''(Rader and Porter, 2008). Regarding specific FTA TOOLS, survey approaches such as the Delphi methodology used by the LOFT project carry specific benefits to Law.
In this context, the greatest virtue of the scenario planning technique is not to predict how the future may look like,
but to allow for the future to come into being in the minds of the people of the present, that is, to allow for the future to be imagined,
rather than as a claim to know the future''(HIIL, 2011). Furthermore, the methodological integration of scenario planning with other FTA TOOLS also promises to bring important benefits to the study, drafting and enforcement of law.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 343 The application of modelling techniques to the legal domain represents a step further in the use of ICT, Artificial intelligence (AI) and other advanced
As Blind (2006) observes, this growing interest reflects a series of recent developments: First, within a framework of tighter governmental budgets and stronger international competition, policy-makers involved in regulatory policies are being held more accountable for the significant economic resources,
as well as the political capital invested in regulatory management systems PAGE 344 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 now established in most OECD countries.
case studies and surveys as the most commonly used approaches (Blind, 2006), FTA would add to this methodological list other approaches that could render the evaluation of current laws,
as requested for instance in the European union (European commission, 2002), as well as the performance of ex post evaluation of regulations (which is part of the progress development of regulatory policies,
complementing ex ante evaluations (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2003. Ex ante impact assessment is required to check all possible impact dimensions
and monitoring their performance (i e. data gathering and reporting strategies) and practices to review existing regulations (Blind, 2006).
to analyse and test the potential impacts of different (and forthcoming) hypothetical VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 345 laws, contributing to the modernisation of current legislative processes;
moreover, may also affect the application of fta to legal research. In this particular, the question one encounters is how to measure the quality and the appropriateness of the legal research based on a specific FTA (determining, for instance,
the continuity of the financial investment presupposed in the application of fta tools?).Given the systemic unpredictability of the future 20, how can FTA-based
or research is vital for the consolidation and continuity of this approach, as otherwise the suggested application of fta to Law may run the risk of losing credibility in the eyes of policy and decision makers. 4. 2. 2 Neutrality and objectivity.
and manipulations that may affect the production of such idea or vision of future. In other words, we may run the risk of having a specific vision of the future directly produced
As Staton (2008) argues: The future is the site of conflicting and competing discourses and ideologies,
PAGE 346 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. 2. 3 The incorporation of FTA quantitative approaches to law.
Rather than today's primarily‘‘reactive''work, according to which Law responds to observed economic trends and past societal events,
moreover, impossible) or to apply in the present the most perfect laws for the future.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 347 In this way, and as explained in the last section of the article,
legislative drafting and law enforcement. 2. For a historical review of the development of Future-oriented technology analysis, see Johnston (2008).
3. These various tools and strategies differ according to the range of technology targeted, the time horizon span, their goals and outcomes, etc.
and foresight, see Rader and Porter (2008). For the distinction between technology assessment, foresight and technology forecasting made by the European Science
and Technology observatory Network (ESTO), see Rader (2001). The latter was revised, moreover in Rader (2001, p. 4);
and revised in Tu bke et al. 2001): ) JRC-IPTS. 4. These seminars, moreover, have given way to the publication of a series of various journal editions,
such as the special editions of Technological forecasting and Social Change vol. 75 (4); Technological Analysis and Strategic management vol. 20 (3;
2008). ) 5. Although not referring specifically to Law, but to the broader term of regulatory policies, it is important to mention the paper of Knut Blind:
Blind (2006..The paper presents and develops three methodological approaches (indicator-based approaches, surveys and foresight studies Delphi methodology and scenarios) that are adequate to conduct regulatory foresight,
and prioritizing the future areas of regulation. 6. These were the cases of the future-oriented technology assessment exercises conducted during the period 1974-1995 by the US Office of Technology assessment (OTA).
as noted by Johnston (2008)‘‘served to inform Congressional interests as they considered legislative policy options''.
Recurring again to Johnston's (2008) observations, ‘‘t he studies for the STOA panel of the European parliament have served to pinpoint critical aspects of technologies and their application
which might require the attention of legislators at some later point in time''.''Regarding technology assessment, it is interesting to note that it‘‘originally emerged with the aim of contributing to the balance of power between the legislative and executive branches of government,
but has moved increasingly towards providing knowledge suitable for actively shaping technology'',in Rader and Porter (2008).
PAGE 348 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 9. Given the rich insights, ideas and visions contained in the collected contributions,
2011). ) 10. For a comprehensive guide as to how scenarios can be developed and used, see Bo rjeson et al.
2006). ) 11. The SWAMI project (Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence) aimed to identify
2008). ) 12. The FIDIS project (Future of Identity in the Information society) aimed to shape the requirements for the future management of identity in the European Information society (EIS)
2009). ) 13. For a detailed analysis of those trends, uncertainties, scenarios (including its likely triggers),
see HIIL, 2011. Law Scenarios to 2030. Signposting the legal space of the future. 14.
A concrete example of a combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA, namely between scenario and modelling analysis, can be found in the so-called International Futures (IFS.‘‘
2011). ) 15. For an overview of data mining technologies and their use for competitive advantages, see Porter and Cunningham (2005.
16. For an overview of the origins of intelligence-led policing, together with a detailed analysis of its main concepts,
processes and practice, see Ratcliffe (2008). 17. For more information on the Compstat, see Delorenzi et al.
2006). ) 18. For two views sustaining the impossibility to anticipate the future, see Staton (2008);
and Tuomi (2011. 19. For an overview of the main issues and challenges associated with the combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in the field of FTA,
along with a proposal for a way to overcome those barriers, see Haegeman et al. 2011). ) For a discussion of how expert quantitative and qualitative information may be joined coherently,
see Loveridge and Saritas (2011). 20. For two views sustaining the impossibility to anticipate the future,
see Staton (2008); and Tuomi (2011. Regarding the latter paper, Tuomi reconfirms the thesis of the unpredictability of the future,
arguing that foresight has missed systematically important future developments due to its reliance on categorizations and measurement systems optimized for the Industrial Age models of production.
According to the author, foresight needs a paradigm shift in the Knowledge society, overcoming the epistemic models of FTA that inherently assume a world that evolves as an extrapolation of the past,
failing to grasp the truly creative and novel aspects of the future. This paper, furthermore, explores the basic ontological and epistemological concepts that underlie foresight and FTA. 21.
''See de Smedt (2010. 22. The original phrase is in French:‘‘‘‘L'ide'e de l'avenir, grosse d'une infinite'de possible, est donc plus fe'conde que l'avenir
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 349 References Barre',R. and Keenan, M. 2008),‘Revisiting foresight rationales:
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towards a user's guide'',Futures, Vol. 38, pp. 723-39. Burger, W. E. 1977),‘Agenda for 2000 AD:
a need for systematic anticipation, address delivered at the National Conference on the Causes of Popular Dissatisfaction with the Administration of Justice, St paul, MN, April 1976'',New york state Bar Journal, p. 49.
Cagnin, C. and Keenan, M. 2008),‘Positioning future-oriented technology analysis'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis:
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin. Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds)( 2008), Future-oriented technology analysis:
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin. de Smedt, P. 2010),‘The use of impact assessment tools to support sustainable policy objectives in Europe'',Ecology and Society, Vol. 15 No. 4
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www. futurict. ethz. ch/data/Whatfuturictwilldo4media. pdf HIIL (2011),‘Law scenarios to 2030. Signposting the legal space of the future'',available at:
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D. S. 2011),‘Using the international futures (IFS) model for scenario analysis: combining quantitative and qualitative methods,
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About the author Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade is a Scientific Officer at the Information society Unit of the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European commission's Joint research Centre.
In 2009 he co-edited and published Law and Technology: Looking into the Future Selected Essays.
norberto. andrade@ec. europa. euvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 351 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
. 36 40, D-76021 Karlsruhe, Germany Received 13 may 2004; received in revised form 30 september 2004;
accepted 2 october 2004 Abstract Technology assessment reflecting on R&d and technological trends in the area of nanotechnology and its implications is confronted with the problem that most scientific endeavours of nanotechnology can be allocated to basic research
while most of the technological visions related to nanotechnology are far (N10 years) in the future. Since technology assessment has to integrate the socioeconomic context of a technical product
in order to be comprehensive, in the case of nanotechnology a preparing step is necessary which connects the ongoing basic research with the visions communicated either by the scientist themselves or by the media.
D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Science and technology roadmapping; Technology assessment; Nanotechnology 1. Introduction Emerging technologies pose considerable challenges for dclassicalt technology assessment (TA.
On the 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.10.005*Corresponding author.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 other hand, decision support and policy making require information on the potential consequences of the introduction of new technologies before they are implemented widely,
Over the last years, the landscape for Technology assessment has changed significantly. TA has started with the investigation of large complex technologies (conventional or nuclear energy technologies, aerospace technologies...
During the last years, the technological focus has shifted somewhat towards rather small, widely distributed (some would say decentralised) technologies where the impacts arise rather from a single component itself but from the large number of components and their widespread application,
In the last years, in many countries due to economic and social pressures there is a shift of focus towards technologies that stimulate
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1113 Most funding organisations or contract awarders require valid, scientifically sound, knowledge-based, often quantitative,
It was introduced, in its very beginning, as an early warning of technological risks and unintended consequences, later also as a tool for an early diagnosis of the chances and potential of technology.
particularly the sustainability assessments of technology, is prepared by decades of experiences with technology assessments. Consideration of the long term perspective
they are heralded as a key technology for the 21st century. These potential innovations offer numerous benefits. There are great expectations among policymakers,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1114 ordinated by the Europa ische Akademie zur Erforschung von Folgen wissenschaftlich-technischer Entwicklungen Bad
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1115 considered as the most important bridge between basic research and marketable products and processes.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1116 The term droadmapt is used widely, starting from graphical representations of technology development paths and their application environments up to detailed and ambitious
For a detailed discussion of the different types of roadmaps, their scopes, objectives, methodologies and time-scales see e g.
and apply technology roadmapping in the mid-1980s. It has become a widely used technique during the past two decades from the perspective of both individual companies and entire industries.
To our knowledge, the term dscience roadmapt has been proposed first by Robert Galvin in a 1998 article in Science 9. Kostoff and Schaller without any explicit justification dreinteggrated both types.
According to them a bs and T (science and technology, T. F.)roadmap provides a consensus view
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1117 be as specific and reliable as necessary to be the basis for a valid and sound technology assessment
qualified estimates about technological hurdles and the degree of difficulty to overcome them and related time horizons,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1118 Besides this, a successful implementation of this concept could also help to overcome some of the argumentative asymmetries that can be found in many debates about chances
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1119 purposes, and what further benefits of the roadmapping process beyond structuring the field of nanotechnology can be expected. 5. Summary
and outlook The landscape for Technology assessment has changed over the last few years. Political priorities are altering
Nanotechnology is considered mainly as one of the technological developments to have far-reaching impacts on the industries of this century.
Technology assessment Methods and Impacts, Springer Heidelberg, New york, 2004. T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1120 2 T. Fleischer, A. Grunwald, Technikgestaltung fu r mehr Nachhaltigkeit Anforderungen an die Technikfolgenabscha
tzung, in: A. Grunwald (Ed.),Technikgestaltung fu r eine nachhaltige Entwicklung Von der Konzeption zur Umsetzung, Edition Sigma, Berlin, 2002.3 H. Paschen, C
Manage. 48 (2)( 2001) 132 143.7 O. Da Costa, M. Boden, Y. Punie, M. Zappacosta, Science and technology roadmapping:
from industry to public policy, IPTS Report 73 (2003. 8 J. D. Linton, S. T. Walsh, Introduction.
Change 71 (1 2)( 2004) 1 3. 9 R. Galvin, Science roadmaps, Science 280 (5365)( 1998) 803.10 A. Grunwald, Technikfolgenabscha tzung eine
Change 71 (1/2)( 2004) 161 185.12 S. Walsh, J. Elders, International Roadmap on MEMS, Microsystems, Micromachining and Top Down Nanotechnology, MANCEF, Naples
mstnews 5, 2003, pp. 42 44.15 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods, Technol.
Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303. Torsten Fleischer has a background in physics. After serving as a project manager for several technology assessment studies for the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany,
After receiving a Phd from the University of Heidelberg in 1995, he worked as researcher at the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in Stuttgart.
Between 1997 and 2002 he was a member of the scientific staff of the Europa ische Akademie Gmbh where he managed several TA-projects
Since 2003 he is a member of the scientific staff and since February 2004 deputy head of the Institute for Technology assessment and System Analysis (ITAS) at the Research centre Karlsruhe.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1121
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