This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 04:57 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:
1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Karel Haegeman, K. Matthias Weber & Totti Könnölä (2012) Preparing for grand challenges:
the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural and systemic changes, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 729-734, DOI:
Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www. tandfonline. com/page/termsanndconditions Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Technology analysis & Strategic management Vol. 24
8 september 2012,729 734 EDITORIAL Preparing for grand challenges: the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural
and systemic changes A series of conferences on future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) has been organised by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European commission's Joint research Centre over the past years.
The fourth editiio (2011) of the International Seville Conference on Future-Orientedtechnologyanalysis (FTA) focused its attention on processes of transformative change in response to Grand Societal Challennges
Although earlier conferences had focused in a rather self-reflexive manner on future perspectives for FTA (2004 and the impact of fta on decision-making (2006,2008),
shaping and defining research and innovation agendas (2011 FTA Conference Scientific Committee. 1 An even more basic question raised during the conference relates to
who argued that the industrial era of the past and today's ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715475 http://www. tandfonline. com
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 730 Editorial information era will be followed by a molecular era,
driven by the confluence of nanotechnology, biotechnology and materials science (Linstone 2011a, 2011b. It is these fundamental changes that give rise to the main challenges of today'sworld.
when moving to the molecular era, thus limiting the possibilities of forecasting. He continued that
which aims to create transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures (Inayatullah 1998). 3 Other examples are immersive decision theatres (offering a virtual environment facility to visualise output of predictive and scenario-based models with the aim to support decision-making (Edsall and Larson
2006) 4), transformational narratives5 and Integral Foresight methodologies. The latter introduces Integral Philosophy into foresight, based on the argument that the answers required today cannot,
in principle, be found in what Slaughter (2008) calls‘problem-oriented'futures (i e. conventional thinking), and thus requires a new approach making use of integral ideas.
and Scapolo (2012) give some responses to these new demands on FTA. They pose a tentative claim that‘FTA
With a similar line of thought in his keynote at the 2011 FTA Conference, Ollila (2011) from Nokia focused on the future challenges for innovation policy as resulting in particcula from global economic developments.
and what their potential and limitations Are downloaded in by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Preparing for grand challenges 731 addressing Grand challenges.
or whether they will become the dominant productive force in the next decades. Tuomi kicks off a set of contributions that look more conceptually at how FTA can contribute to identifying
by zooming in on the issue of unpredictability, in line with Linstone's argument on the limitations of forecasting in times of transition between two eras.
Their starting point is that FTA deals with phenomenological ignorance of three kinds (known unknowns unknown knowns and unknown unknowns) that give rise to an over-reliance on subjective opinion.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 732 Editorial Should a firm match its foresight approach with the types of uncertainty it faces?
How do businesses develop successful continuity and become economically wealthy while simultaneously following their vision of the tenets of sustainable development?
and present four case studies of road mapping projects from the Technical research Centre of Finland (VTT). How to forecast technologies that depend mainly on discontinuous advances?
Stronger emphasis on creativity and exploration of truly Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Preparing for grand challenges 733 alternative future developments are called for to be prepared better to address both the existing Grand challenges
http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/FTA2011 CALL FINAL. pdf. Last accessed July 2012.2. A fourth religious/mythological perspective can add to bridging the gap between the systems analysis and the real world.
Inayatullah (1998) argues that, ‘the challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down the layers of analysis
Denning (2005) on the use of narrative tools in combination with strategic analysis for addressing transformational innovation.
and F. Scapolo. 2012. The role of FTA in responding to Grand challenges: A new approach for STI policy?
Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 135 9. Denning, S. 2005. Transformational innovation: A journey by narrative.
and K. L. Larson. 2006. Decision-making in a virtual environment: Effectiveness of a semi-immersive Decision Theater in understanding
and assessing human environment interactions. http://www. cartogis. org/docs/proceedings/2006/edsall larson. pdf (accessed 6 august 2012).
Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. Hames, R. 2011b. Feedback on the 2011 international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis.
IPTS internal note. Inayatullah, S. 1998. Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method. Futures 30, no. 8: 815 29.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 734 Editorial Linstone, H. A. 2011a.
Three eras of technology foresight, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/FTA%202011
%20%205-9%20%20hl%20%20%20%20%20ppt%20%20copy. ppt. accessed 6 august 2012.
Linstone, H. A. 2011b. Three eras of technology foresight. Technovation 31, nos. 2 3: 69 76.
Ollila, J. 2011. The innovation policy challenge, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on futureorieente technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/JO
%202011. ppt (accessed 6 august 2012. Slaughter, R. A. 2008. Integral futures methodologies. Futures 40, no. 2: 103 8. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014
This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 04:52 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:
1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Foresight in an unpredictable world Ilkka Tuomi a a Meaning Processing Ltd.
Merenneidontie 24 D, 02320, Espoo, Finland Published online: 28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Ilkka Tuomi (2012) Foresight in an unpredictable world, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 735-751, DOI:
10.1080/09537325.2012.715476 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715476 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
However, Taylor & francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness,
or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,
and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon
8 september 2012,735 751 Foresight in an unpredictable world Ilkka Tuomi*Meaning Processing Ltd. Merenneidontie 24 D, 02320 Espoo, Finland Unpredictability has two main sources:
ilkka. tuomi@meaningprocessing. com ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715476
http://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 736 I. Tuomi are active generators of novelty
and use some ideas from cultural historical theory to argue that modelling the directionality of the innovative élan requires analysis of progress at several time scales.
At least since the 1970s it has been understood well that even when the world unfolds in a completely deterministic fashion under well-known natural laws,
Haken 1981. For all that we know, physical nature can be indeterminate. Social scientists (Goffman 1959;
Giddens 1984; Luhmann 1990; Beck, Giddens, and Lash 1994) have emphasised further the point that reflexivity in thought
and action creates a delicate balance between predictability and unpredictability in social systems and interactions. As soon as we have an explicit theory of human or social behaviour,
it influences the way we think and live, thus, in general, making the theory obsolete and prediction futile.
which in competitive markets remains the only source of profits. 1 Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 737 Epistemic uncertainty Integrating the numerous extant typologies
2003) distinguished two sources of uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty, according to these authors, is uncertainty due to the imperfection of our knowledge,
Following van Asselt and Rotmans (2002), they characterised variability uncertainty as‘ontological uncertainty'.'2 The ontological uncertainty of van Asselt and Rotmans and Walker et al. is about uncertainty of attributes associated with given objects.
what used to be a beast can one day become cattle. The nature of the beast Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 738
I. Tuomi depends on our relation with it. If we run as fast as we can
For example, the idea that radical innovations emerge as‘hopeful monstrosities'that only gradually realise their true promise (Tushman and Anderson 1986;
Mokyr 1990, chap. 11; Bower and Christensen 1995) assumes that we know the dimensions on which we will measure their‘beastliness'at the point of their emergence.
In practice, such‘ugly ducklings'of evolution can be defined as ugly ducklings only retrospectively, when we already know that they are not (Tuomi 2002;
Taleb 2007. In contrast to this biblical ontological model, below we adopt a model of constant creation that relies on a different ontology.
In this model, innovation occurs when social practice changes. The history of innovations and technical change shows that‘heroic innovators'are located often in the downstream.
when a potential user group finds a meaningful way to integrate latent innovative opportunities in the current social practice (Tuomi 2002).
In models that emphasise the role of social practices and social interaction as the key loci of innovation (Engel 1997;
Brown and Duguid 2000; Tuomi 2002; Oudshoorn and Pinch 2003), downstream innovators also include creative members of communities of practice.
For example, in the multifocal model of Tuomi (2002), new technical functionalities and propensities are thrown in effect from the‘upstream'to a‘downstream'field of interacting social practices,
and new user groups and new uses mutually construct each other. Innovation and social learning in the context of the local downstream systems of meaning then become key drivers for the evolution of technology.
This view allows for the fact that some innovations are more radical and revolutionary than others.
and their realisation requires power struggles (Hughes 1983; Callon, Law, and Rip 1986; Bijker, Hughes, and Pinch 1987;
Latour 1996) as well as new world views, social arrangements, and systems of categorisation (Schon 1963; Fleck 1979;
Dosi 1982; Perez 1985; Garud and Rappa 1994; Bowker and Star 1999; Geels 2005. It is,
however, impossible to categorise a particular innovation based on the characteristics of a technical artefact before it is used.
The proper unit of analysis of innovation is thus‘innovation-in use'.'The same artefact Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 739 can be used for many different purposes in many different social practices, each with its own developmental trajectories.
This leads to a relational epistemology that is structurally different from the traditional objectivistic and empiristic models of epistemology.
It also shifts the locus of innovation from the‘upstream'to the‘downstream'.'A practical consequence of this relocation of locus of innovation to the downstream is that human upstream inventors rarely know,
or can know, what their inventions will be. The dominant constraints and resources for innovation are often far beyond the reach
and control of heroic upstream creators. Innovations become real in the context of use, and this requires stocks of knowledge
and systems of meaning that are located in communities of users and social practice. The true nature of the beast is revealed only when someone domesticates it.
Bell 1876) As Fischer (1992) has documented in detail, for many decades after the telephone was invented, itwas marketed mainly for business use.
Itwas often understood either as a newform of telegraphy or as a broadcast medium. Telephone entrepreneurs tried to use the telephone to broadcast news, concerts, church services, weather reports,
and almost the first five decades of its history, industry actively discouraged such use. This social use of the telephone was invented basically by housewives in the USA, in particular, by those in the Midwest, around the first decade of the twentieth century.
The challenge of ontological unpredictability can thus be formulated in a simple way: How can we predict the number of cattle or the impact of a new technology,
Henri Bergson explored this question in great depth over a century ago. In Creative Evolution, he argued that both mechanistic and teleological approaches fail to explain novelty.
According to Bergson (1983),‘they say the same thing in their respective languages, because they respond to the same need'(45).
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 740 I. Tuomi In Bergson's analysis,
Akey starting point for Bergson was the belief that evolution is truly creative, and novelty is not only recombinatiio of already existing forms or unfolding of a predetermined future.
Out of this continuity, intellect, in turn, constructs a world that consists of discontinuities and potential breaking points.
It thus tells us how to break the continuity and create distinctions that matter. The distinctions that our intellect generates are not arbitrary, however;
In contrast to the mechanical time of physical sciences, the Bergsonian‘durée'of living processes therefore has direction and irreversibility.
teenagers start to use SMS for communicating with each other. At that point, social practices start to change.
Messaging becomes a key driver for development and profit in the telecom industry, and telecom operators start to write‘messaging'in their strategic plans and marketing material.
Ontological reality expands. After the new domain of reality moves from periphery to the centre,
stories of heroic innovators emerge telling howsms functionalitywas devised by clever engineers in the GSM standardisation groups in the mid-1980s.3 Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable
In practice, we create imaginations (Rubin 1998; Miller 2007) and expectations (Borup et al. 2006) that provide us temporary stepping stones on the way ahead.
We may illustrate the expansionary character of this process using alpinism as a metaphor. When a mountaineer climbs a mountain face, at each hold,
and it needs to be described as a complex process that transpires in several different time scales in parallel (Tuomi 1999,203).
At the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 742 I. Tuomi level of operations, progress, in turn,
Activities, thus, can be associated with an underlyyin thought community (Fleck 1979), community of practice (Brownand Duguid 1991;
Lave and Wenger 1991), and community of practitioners (Schön 1983; Constant 1987) and with specialised systems of knowledge and meaning (Polanyi 1998;
Knorr Cetina 1999. In practice, the upward movement of most mountaineers does not occur in an inert external environment.
The environment is rarely a static result of sedimentation, and sometimes mountains feel like anthills under construction.
As many authors (Haldane 1931; Whitehead 1978; Maturana andvarela 1980; Lewontin 1983; Varela, Thompson, and Rosch 1991;
Nishida 2012) have emphasissed the environment subject distinction fails to account for the mutual co-determination
and co-evolution of living beings and their environments. Yet, the movement towards future occurs in a context that can often be taken to be static in relation to the time scale of present action.
In creative evolution, at each horizon of action, we rely on a temporary blueprint of the world.
This is another reason for why we need to split the élan into multiple parallel processes that occur in different time scales.
The alpinist model is, in fact a reversed version of the natural drift model of evolution proposed by Maturana and Varela.
In their original depiction of natural drift, Maturana and Varela (1988, chap. 5) described the process of evolution using a metaphor of water drops rolling down from the top of a mountain.
In this model, Darwinistic selection may weed out those developmental forms that are incompatible with survival and reproduction.
the speculative profit opportunities of Knight or the idiosyncratic individual interests of Hayek and the more collective tacit understandings of progress highlighted by Polanyi (Mirowski 1998;
Jacobs 2000. In practice, simple tinkering may also be important. Schön (1987,31) illustrated such a process by recounting Edmund Carpenter's description of the Eskimo sculptor patiently carving a reindeer bone,
examining the gradually emerging shape and finally exclaiming‘Ah, seal!'.'Anticipation under ontological uncertainty Ontological expansion makes anticipation a challenging task.
According to Rosen (1985), anticipatory systems are systems that contain predictive models, allowing future to have an impact on the present:
To take a transparent example: if I am walking in the woods, and I see a bear appear on the path ahead of me,
The stimulus of my action Is downloaded not just by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 743 the sight of the bear,
my present behavior is not simply reactive, but rather it is anticipatory. 7) An anticipatory system,
The crucial point for Rosen is that time works differently in natural and formal systems.
In natural systems, time separates events into two classes: those that are simultaneous with each other
or logical relations that remain true independent of time, and time becomes a parameter that can be used to label system states.
In practice, this means that if the formal model is good enough a representation of the natural system,
we can use the formal system to find out the state of the natural system in some future point of time.
create hypotheses about the unobservable causal relationships, fast forward the formal model to a future point of time,
and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 744 I. Tuomi Figure 1. Modelling relation according to Rosen. mathematical models that make predictive statements particularly efficient and allow,
'On the right-hand side, time is a parameter that can be used to label system states
On the left-hand side, time is the creator of irreversibility and novelty. In other words, the left-hand side is the generator of innovations,
As Bergson (1988) pointed out abstraction itself relies on memory. This means that both natural systems and their predictive models are necessarily to a large extent retrospective.
In slightly more provocative terms, predictive and formal models live in a phenomenological world that is fundamentally a reflection of the past.
Ontological Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 745 Figure 2. Modelling in the context of the phenomenological veil. unpredictability,
In future-oriented research, the nature and implications of‘weak signals'have been debated actively during the last few years (Mendonça et al. 2004;
Rossel 2011; Holopainen and Toivonen 2012. We can use the above analysis to gain some novel insights into this debate.
The Bergsonian story about the emergence of the biological eye and vision is structured in three acts.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 746 I. Tuomi A similar story underlies the GSM short messaging example Engineers first define a standard that allows short messages to be delivered using the GSM control channel.
The transitory moment when a proto-eye gains new meaning as an organ of vision is a creative moment
‘Weak signals'of future can often be understood as narrative fragments that are used to compose meaningful stories that make sense of the present as an endpoint of past history.
Making sense of the present thus involves backcasting both the present and the narrative future.
In the case of GSM SMS, ontological expansion looks less radical, as the emerging new social practices can be understood as new forms of already existing practices.
where the‘objects'of the world provide the ultimate foundation for analysis (Hiltunen 2008). Here Nishida's (1987) analysis of the problems of objectificcation underlying the more recent work of Shimitzu and Nonaka (Nonaka, Toyama,
and Hirata 2008), still represents the state of the art. Although ontological expansion makes future an unpredictable place,
this does not mean that we cannot say anything interesting about the future. It may be impossible to have facts
so that we are better able to live in an unpredictable world (Miller 2007). In strategic decision-making, it is possible that the traditionalansoffian analysis of weak signals mainly produces fictional certainty that leads to managerial overconfidence and blindness to true novelty and uncertainties.
and that they are able to predict the future also now (Bukszar 1999). A potential approach to reduce such misplaced overconfidence is to explicate both the underlying Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 747 assumptions (Rossel 2009)
and the narrative structures (Wright 2005) that are used to make sense of the issue at hand. As decision-making tends to be inherently a political process,
it is believed often that conflict can be reduced by decision processes that emphasise data and facts. The above discussion indicates that such approaches have limited only potential in future-oriented analysis.
and standardised interpretations do not exist (Regnér 2003). Instead of emphasising the‘objective'in future-oriented analysis, decision processes and future-oriented analysis therefore should methodologically emphasise domains that are labelled conventionally‘subjective'.
Ogilvy (2011) has argued recently that scenario developers and decision-makers have to learn to maintain an agnostic attitude
as the data are collected on categories that used to be important in the industrial economies and value production models of the twentieth century.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 748 I. Tuomi In general facts exist only for natural systems that have associated measurement instruments and established encodings and decodings between the natural system and its formal model.
For example, ageing may become a‘grand challenge 'when we assume an industrial age model of factory-based production, industrial era life patterns and health services,
an educational system geared towards producing skilled labour, and public financing systems that are based on all the above assumptions.
elderly people could well become the dominant productive force in the next few decades, instead of a grand challenge.
For a critical historical review of key contributions, see Mirowski (2009. 2. Ontological uncertainty has been defined in several different ways by different authors.
For example, Lane and Max-field (2004) distinguished between truth uncertainty, semantic uncertainty, and ontological uncertainty.
and access to the telex network has already been discussed in the first GSM plenary meeting in Stockholm in 1982 (CEPT-CCH-GSM 1982).
however, lists mobile-to-mobile SMS as an‘additional service'(CEPT/GSM 1985). In recent years, both Friedhelm Hillebrand and Matti Makkonen have been described as the‘inventors'of SMS (Wallén 2008;
Milian 2009. In its present form, SMS emerged only after 1992 when Nokia introduced the first SMS-capable phone. 4. Leont'ev's activity theory was based on Vygotsky's theories on cultural historical development (Luria and Vygotsky 1992).
A similar three-level structure emerges when we analyse the communicative meaning of sentences. We cannot derive the communicative meaning of a sentence by adding up word definitions,
and we cannot define the meaning Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 749 of a word by adding up letters.
The letters are used to‘implement'the words, and words are used to say things; the meaning of a sentence,
however, cannot be reduced to its constitutive letters. The meaning of activity, similarly, cannot be deduced from observed acts. 5. Cf.
Louie (2010), Poli (2010), and other articles in the same special issue of foresight on anticipatory systems.
and S. Lash. 1994. Reflexive modernization: Politics, tradition and aesthetics in the modern social order.
Bergson, H. 1983. Creative evolution (first edition 1907. Lanham, MD: University Press of America. Bergson, H. 1988.
Matter and memory (first edition 1896. Newyork: Zone Books. Bijker, W. E t. P. Hughes, and T. J. Pinch. 1987.
The social construction of technological systems: New directions in the sociology and history of technology.
and H. Van Lente. 2006. The sociology of expectations in science and technology. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos 3 4: 285 98.
and C. M. Christensen. 1995. Disruptive technologies: Catching thewave. Harvard Business Review (January February: 43 53.
Bowker, G, . and S l. Star. 1999. Sorting things out: Classification and its consequences. Cambridge, MA:
The MIT Press. Brown, J. S, . and P. Duguid. 1991. Organizational learning and communities of practice:
Toward a unified view of working, learning, and innovation. Organization science 2, no. 1: 40 57.
and P. Duguid. 2000. The social life of information. Boston, MA: Harvard Business school Press. Bukszar, E. 1999.
Strategic bias: The impact of cognitive biases on strategy. Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences 16, no. 2: 105 17.
and A. Rip. 1986. Mapping the dynamics of science and technology: Sociology of science in the real world.
CEPT-CCH-GSM. 1982. Report from meeting no. 1. T/CCH (83)/ 9 GSM Doc 32/83.
CEPT/GSM. 1985. Services and facilities to be provided in the GSM system. GSM Doc 28/85 rev. 2. Constant, E w. 1987.
The social locus of technological practice: Community, system, or organization? In The social construction of technological systems:
Dosi, G. 1982. Technical paradigms and technological trajectories a suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technological change.
Engel, P. G. H. 1997. The social organization of innovation: A focus on stakeholder interaction. The netherlands: Royal Tropical Institute.
Fischer, C. S. 1992. America calling: A social history of telephone to 1940. Berkeley, CA:
University of California Press. Fleck, L. 1979. Genesis and development of a scientific fact. Chicago, IL:
. and M. Rappa. 1994. A socio-cognitive model of technology evolution. Organization science 4, no. 3: 527 50.
Geels, F. W. 2005. The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: A multilevel analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860 1930.
Technology analysis & Strategic management 17, no. 4: 445 76. Giddens, A. 1984. The constitution of society:
Outline of the theory of structure. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. Goffman, E. 1959.
Haken, H.,ed. 1981. Chaos and order in nature. Berlin: Springer-verlag. Haldane, J. S. 1931.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 750 I. Tuomi Hiltunen, E. 2008.
and M. Toivonen. 2012. Weak signals: Ansoff today. Futures 44, no. 3: 198 205. Hughes, T. P. 1983.
Networks of power: Electrification in western society 1880 1930. Baltimore, MD: The John Hopkins University Press.
Jacobs, S. 2000. Spontaneous order: Michael Polanyi and Friedrich Hayek. Critical review of International Social and Political Philosophy 3, no. 4: 49 67.
Knight, F. H. 1921. Risk, uncertainty, and profit. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin. Knorr Cetina, K. 1999.
Epistemic cultures: How the sciences make knowledge. Cambridge, MA: Harvard university Press. Lane, D, . and R. Maxfield. 2004.
Ontological uncertainty and innovation. Journal of Evolutionary economics 15, no. 1: 3 50. Latour, B. 1996.
Aramis, or the love of technology. Boston, MA: Harvard university Press. Lave, J, . and E. Wenger. 1991.
Situated learning: Legitimate peripheral participation. Cambridge: Cambridge university Press. Leont'ev, A n. 1978. Activity, consciousness, and personality.
Prentice-hall. Lewontin, R. 1983. The organism as the subject and object of evolution. Scientia 118: 63 82.
Louie, A. H. 2010. Robert Rosen's anticipatory systems. Foresight 12, no. 3: 18 29.
Luhmann, N. 1990. Essays on self-reference. Newyork: Columbia University Press. Luria, A r, . and L. Vygotsky. 1992.
Ape, primitive man, and child: Essays in the history of behavior. Hemel Hempstead: Harvester Wheatsheaf.
and F. J. Varela. 1980. Autopoiesis and cognition: The realization of the living. London: Reidl.
and F. J. Varela. 1988. The tree of knowledge: The biological roots of human understanding. Boston, MA:
and F. Ruff. 2004. Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation. Futures 36, no. 2 march: 201 18.
Milian, M. 2009. Why text messages are limited to 160 characters. Los angeles times, May 3. http://latimesblogs. latimes. com/technology/2009/05/invented-text-messaging. html Miller, R. 2007.
Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method. Futures 39, no. 4: 341 62. Mirowski, P. 1998.
Economics, science, and knowledge: Polanyi vs. Hayek. Tradition & Discovery, The Polanyi Society Periodical XXV, no. 1: 29 42.
Mirowski, P. 2009. Why there is (as yet) no such thing as an economics of knowledge. In The Oxford handbook of philosophy of economics, ed. H. Kincaid and D. Ross, 99 156.
Oxford: Oxford university Press. Mokyr, J. 1990. The lever of riches: Technological creativity and economic progress.
Oxford: Oxford university Press. Nicolis, G, . and I. Prigogine. 1977. Self-organization in nonequilibrium systems: From dissipative structures to order through fluctuations.
Nishida, K. 1987. Last writings: Nothingness and the religious worldview. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press.
Nishida, K. 2012. Logic and life. In place and dialectic: Two essays by Nishida Kitaro, trans.
and T. Hirata. 2008. Managing flow: A process theory of the knowledge-based firm. Houndmills, Basingstoke:
Ogilvy, J. 2011. Facing the fold: From the eclipse of Utopia to the restoration of hope.
and T. J. Pinch. 2003. Introduction: How users and non-users matter. In How users matter:
Perez, C. 1985. Microelectronics, long waves and world structural change: New perspectives for developing countries. World Development 13, no. 3: 441 63.
Polanyi, M. 1998. Personal knowledge: Towards a post-critical philosophy. London: Routledge. Poli, R. 2010.
The many aspects of anticipation. Foresight 12, no. 3: 7 17. Raven, R. P. J. M,
. and F. W. Geels. 2010. Socio-cognitive evolution in niche development: Comparative analysis of biogas development in Denmark and The netherlands (1973 2004.
Technovation 30, no. 2: 87 99. Regnér, P. 2003. Strategy creation in the periphery: Inductive versus deductive strategy making.
Journal of Management Studies 40, no. 1: 57 82. Rosen, R. 1985. Anticipatory systems: Philosophical, mathematical and methodological foundations.
Oxford: Pergamon Press. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 751 Rossel, P. 2009.
Weak signals as a flexible framing space for enhanced management and decision-making. Technology analysis & Strategic management 21, no. 3: 307 20.
Rossel, P. 2011. Beyond the obvious: Examiningways of consolidating early detection schemes. Technological forecasting and Social Change 78, no. 3: 375 85.
Rubin, A. 1998. Giving images a chance: Images of the future as a tool for sociology.
Schön, D. A. 1983. The reflective practitioner. Newyork: Basic books. Schön, D. A. 1987. Educating the reflective practitioner:
Toward a new design for teaching and learning in the professions. San francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.
Schumpeter, J. A. 2005. The analysis of economic change. Reprinted from Review of Economic Statistics, May 2 10,1935.
In Essays on entrepreneurs, innovations, business cycles and the evolution of capitalism, ed. R. V. Clemence, 134 49.
Taleb, N. N. 2007. The black swan. Newyork: Random House. Thom, R. 1972. Stabilité structurelle et morphogénèse:
Tuomi, I. 1999. Corporate knowledge: Theory and practice of intelligent organizations. Helsinki: Metaxis. Tuomi, I. 2002.
Networks of innovation: Change and meaning in the age of the Internet. Oxford: Oxford university Press.
and P. Anderson. 1986. Technological discontinuities and organizational environments. Administrative Science Quarterly 31, no. 3: 439 65. van Asselt, M. B. A,
. and J. Rotmans. 2002. Uncertainty in integrated assessment modelling. Climatic Change 54, no. 1: 75 105.
and E. Rosch. 1991. The embodied mind: Cognitive science and human experience. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
Von Hippel, E. 1988. The sources of innovation. Newyork: Oxford university Press. Walker, W. E.,P. Harremoes, J. Rotmans, J. van der Sluijs, M. B. A. vanasselt, P. Janssen,
and M. P. Krayer von Krauss. 2003. Defining uncertainty: A conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support.
Wallén, M. 2008. Mannen som uppfann sms: et. Dagens Industri, May 11. http://di. se/Artiklar/2008/5/11/41905/Mannensoomuppfann-sms-et/Whitehead, A n. 1978.
Process and reality: An essay in cosmology. Corrected ed. Newyork: Free Press. Wright, A. 2005.
The role of scenarios as prospective sensemaking devices. Management Decision 43, no. 1: 86 101.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011