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28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Denis Loveridge & Ozcan Saritas (2012) Ignorance and uncertainty:
influences on future-oriented technology analysis, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 753-767, DOI: 10.1080/09537325.2012.715477 To link to this article:
8 september 2012,753 767 Ignorance and uncertainty: influences on future-oriented technology analysis Denis Loveridge*and Ozcan Saritas Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) deals in phenomenological ignorance
Much depends on the conflict between modernity, with its strong attachment to science, and post-modernity with its questioning of much that modernity accepts.
Staton (2006) drew out the poverty of foresight if Derrida's claim that foresight does not say much about the future is accepted.
These are not empty arguments but get to the root of what foresight, as the outcome of anticipation, appreciation and learning, can say about something that does not exist.
denis. loveridge@mbs. ac. uk ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080
/09537325.2012.715477 http://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 754 D. Loveridge
In the present context, with its emphasis on science and technology, is embedded foresight in diminuendo in its corresponding social and commercial expectations?
and sometimes interlocking, role of ignorance (Roberts and Armitage 2008; Roberts 2012) and uncertainty in underpinning quantitative and qualitative thought in FTA.
There is an evident paradox in characterising, if indeed that has any meaning, the‘future, 'something that does not exist even conceptually or perceptually,
as much is shrouded in various forms of ignorance, especially the unknown unknowns1 form (Rumsfeld 2002). The paper sets out to pay much attention to the situations that may confront FTA practitioners,
typified in Section 2, in the future, which emphasises the need for extensive learning: this is expanded in Section 3. Section 4 introduces some important issues that are referred to infrequently in FTA,
The co-joining of quantitative and qualitative information is exemplified by the T ohoku earthquake and tsunami on 11 march 2011 north east of Japan.
The BWR was probably the best known at the time and stability in a known earthquake zone would have been very much in mind.
an extreme case of the combination of an Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 755 unusually severe earthquake and tsunami,
what Taleb (2007) has called picturesquely a Black swan event as Richter scale 9 earthquakes were known events, though there had been only four more powerful ones in human history.
Similarly, any business has a certain momentum that will ensure its continuity for an uncertain time into the future in the absence of some new
but above all else to ensure successful continuity of the business based on securing future profits and a strong share price.
FTA has a strong role to play in businesses achieving successful continuity through offensive and defensive activities.
which the business has either strong or weak interdependencies or interlocking arrangements of a quite different character (Cagnin and Loveridge 2012).
Retracing ones steps to Derrida's criticism, real foresight (Loveridge 2001), perhaps more so than its institutional practice, can have much to say about the future recognising that ultimately the future is a‘black hole'.
a matter of importance to satellite communication, following the 2011 earthquake. No doubt it Will be downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 756 D. Loveridge
and O. Saritas argued that this is not what FTA is about, but when there is talk of‘managing the Earth'for this or that‘grand challenge'(all of
as described by Staton (2006), creates the impression that the umbrella is for immediate protection from inclement situations rather than trying to see beyond them into‘what comes next'.
The outcome is then a version of the long-time notion of the future as a present appreciation of current knowledge projected to some future horizon.
All this may or may not involve formal processes for bringing together quantitative and qualitative information that goes beyond the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 757 conventional‘synthesis report'.
'The latter may, or may not, recognise the nature of the expertise and uncertainties involved revealed in the next section. 4. FTA and subjective behaviour:
methodological issues and metaphors FTA assumes that its processes have an innate capability to deal with dynamic situations made up of many interconnected themes, each
Cooke (1991), Lipinski and Loveridge (1982) and Amara and Lipinski (1983) have described all similar processes for elicitiin expert (subjective opinion from either individuals or small groups.
the individual probability distributions can be joined (there are technical difficulties) using the procedure set out by Lipinski and Loveridge (1982).
while occurring over decades or centuries, bringing life changing events where an appreciation of existence alone will bring the situation into a liveable perspective.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 758 D. Loveridge and O. Saritas Throughout FTA,
Casti (2010) is only the most recent person to question the frequent assumption that science
Transformation of quantitative data from science, technology and pseudo-science into information then plays a role, in conjunction with thesteepv constituents,
How often the nature of measurements is dissected according to the NUSAP2 system (Funtowicz and Ravetz 1990),
1989) developed the two-dimensional framework shown in Figure 1. Meredith's notions can help FTA practitioners'position methods to guide their role and use.
and conversely of ignorance, on the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance
selection of methods used in FTAINDICATING the nature of the knowledge (ignorance) each assumes to be present along the two axes.
and to get past their dichotomy by placing knowledge in a broader context of its contribution to social evolution Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 760 D. Loveridge
's matrix is a subset of a much larger set (Popper 2008. Consequently, it enables judgements to be made on the mix of methods to be used.
these judgements place less Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 761 emphasis on philosophical matters and more on practical ones of concern in FTA,
In its context, FTA helps to develop hypotheses as to how present situations may evolve into the future,
that may include prioritising important areas of intervention, though prioritisation is underdeveloped an art. The next section illustrates how knowledge relevant to FTA can be elicited showing the practical implications of many of the issues raised above. 6. Combining quantitative
and qualitative information an example of elicitation The events involved in the 2011 earthquake north east of Japan illustrate the importance of the STEEPV set and within it,
Figure 2 (Loveridge 2009) illustrates a scheme for undertaking the essential learning processes. Elicitation of opinions and combining them is a central feature in FTA.
though thatwas the more important aspect Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 762 D. Loveridge
and O. Saritas Figure 2. Learning scheme (reproduced from Loveridge (2009) by courtesy of Routledge).
and Loveridge 1982) as it can only be summarised here. In 1977 1978, the Institute for the Future (IFTF) carried out a study of the future of the UK,
'The full outcome of the study remains confidential to this day, but its sponsors (16 major companies and a UK Government department) agreed to publication of the methods used.
Scenario style photographs portrayed the UK at two time slots, 1985 and 1995. Interviews are used so often to obtain opinion that the procedure is regarded as mundane,
generalists, people of thought and people of present and future action. Generalist's had a wide spread of interests;
People of present and/or future action were those people whose present or possible future position meant that they were then able to affect the amelioration of a situation
or were likely to become able to do so at some time in the future. Seeking subjective opinion about a situation and its future from these three types of expert had to be tailored carefully to each
and the elicitations carried out sensitively, but within the general principles that apply to elicitation procedures.
this raised the subsidiary question of their individual levels Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance
and Loveridge (1982)) that permitted an understanding of their level of expertise. The headings of the self-assessment criteria were:(
The outcome of self-ranking can provide weighting factors for each‘expert'(Amara and Lipinski 1983.
Verbal equivalents to different probability levels (Alpert and Raiffa 1982) were used during this part of the elicitation to seed the interviewee's thinking processes.
the assessing ability test was repeated this time using questions drawn from the interviewees'field of expertise.
The scores from the second assessing ability test were a form of calibration of each interviewees assessing ability.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 764 D. Loveridge and O. Saritas 7. Future influences on FTA All the foregoing has lain within the conventional boundaries of FTA
and Ravetz 1990)) to establish its veracity. These are‘straightforward'matters but do they remain so in the face of the political and social worlds'demands for immediacy that underlie the mode of living of modern society?
In 1983, Loveridge was only the then latest person to raise questions along the following lines:‘
of which far exceed those of the 1960s or 1970s. Kurzweil (2005) is only one among many to claim that the‘singularity,
'when computer‘intelligence'or at least computer power, may exceed the capabilities of the human brain,
and acceptance, bringing Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 765 a new social role for computation and computers.
and their meaning at scales and with methods that are unimaginable at the present time except to a few scientists.
'In a sense, these are a throwback to the 1970's debates about the world problematique but seem now to be seen as a series of silos rather than as a global phenomenon.
The interdependence of the silos of‘grand challenges'adds dimensions that were appreciated in the 1970's
For that appreciation to return the current global circulation climate models (GCM's) may need to be seen as simply a module in a much bigger global model.
'Nothing could have identified the‘unknown unknowns'that were present in the recent Japanese earthquake. In that sense, Derrida's argument is unassailable:
and that which cannot be at the time Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 766 D. Loveridge
so that its‘certainties'are fraught with the uncertainties of expertise (7) There is the temptation to believe that hugely increased computational power will take FTA into a Kurzwellian era in
Notes on contributors Denis Loveridge is an Honorary Visiting professor at the Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR) at the Manchester Business school after 44 years in industry.
large and small, relating to Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 767 long-term directions of change in the business environment.
and H. Raiffa. 1982. A progress report on the training of probability assessors. In Judgment under uncertainty, heuristics and biases, ed. D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Taversky, 294 306.
and A j. Lipinski. 1983. Business planning for an uncertain future. Newyork: Pergamon Press. Cagnin, C. H,
. and D. Loveridge. 2012. A business framework for enabling networks to evolve towards sustainable development. Technology analysis & Strategic management 24, no. 8:
September, 817 40. Casti, J. L. 2010. Mood matters: From rising skirt lengths to the collapse of world powers.
Newyork: Copernicus Books, Springer Science+Business Media. Cooke, R. M. 1991. Experts in uncertainty: Opinion and subjective probability in science.
Oxford: Oxford university Press. Funtowicz, S. O, . and J. R. Ravetz. 1990. Uncertainty and quality in science for policy, theory and decision library, Series A:
Philosophy and methodology of the social sciences. Dordrecht, The netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Kurzweil, R. 2005. The singularity is near:
When humans transcend biology. London: Duckworth. Lipinski, A j, . and D. Loveridge. 1982. How we forecast:
The Institute for the Future's study of the UK: 1978-95. Futures 14, no. 3: 205 39.
Loveridge, D. 2001. Foresight Seven paradoxes. International Journal of Technology management 21, nos 7/8: 781 91.
Loveridge, D. 2009. Foresight: The art and science of anticipating the future. Newyork: Routledge. M'Pherson, P. K. 1974.
and B. Kaplan. 1989. Alternative research paradigms in operations. Journal of Operations Management 8, no. 4: 297 326.
Popper, R. 2008. How are selected foresight methods. Foresight 10, no. 6: 62 89. Popper, Sir K. 1957.
and J. Armitage. 2008. The ignorance economy. Prometheus 26, no. 4: December, 335 54. Roberts, J. 2012.
Organizational ignorance: Towards a managerial prospective on the unkown. Management Learning, Sage Journals Online First, doi:
10.1177/1350507612443208, April 30, http://mlq. sagepub. com/(accessed May 31, 2012. Rumsfeld, D. 2002. Department of defense news briefing, February 12, http://www. defense. gov/transcripts/transcript. aspx?
transcriptid=2636 (accessed December 1, 2010. Savage, L j. 1954. The foundations of statistics. Newyork: Wiley. Staton, M. 2006.
Monstrous foresight. In Second international Seville seminar on future oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, Theme 2 FTAEVALUATION, Impact and Learning, September 28 29, Seville, 12 pp.
Taleb, N. N. 2007. The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Newyork: Random House.
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http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of expectations Harro van Lente a a Department of Innovation studies, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The netherlands Published online:
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Harro van Lente (2012) Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations:
lessons from the sociology of expectations, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 769-782, DOI: 10.1080/09537325.2012.715478 To link to this article:
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8 september 2012,769 782 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of expectations Harro van Lente*Department of Innovation studies, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC Utrecht, The netherlands Foresight can be described as the articulation of possible futures.
research institutes and policy circles (Borup et al. 2006; Van Lente and Bakker 2010. Expectations are produced, circulated, adapted and are forceful in various ways (Berkhout 2006).
Foresight exercises, or‘formal'assessments of the future, thus, are surrounded by‘informaal assessments of the future (Salo 2001).
This particular condition will have consequences for the established foresight approaches. This paper conceptually and empirically investigates the phenomenon that socio-technical developments are shot through with informal anticipations
and discusses the implications for formal foresight exercises of science and technology. The central question of this paper is whether and howforesight exercises,
h. vanlente@uu. nl ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715478
http://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 770 H. van Lente out.
and policy circles (Cagnin, Loveridge, and Saritas 2011). During the last decades, dedicated foresight practices have emerged and various approaches and tools have been developed
and evaluated (Coates et al. 2001; Harper et al. 2008; Eerola and Miles 2011. Schoen et al. 2011,235) give the following definition:
Foresight can be characterized as a systemic instrument aiming at enhanced capabilities in innovation systems and their parts.
Foresight activities are seen as functions not only to identify promising technological pathways but also to engage relevant stakeholders and create common visions into action.
Generally, foresight is distinguished according to method, objectives and setting. Various typologies of methods are available, and the review article of Porter (2004) lists the nine families of foresight methods including quantitative and qualitative explorations and forms of stakeholder involvement.
The objectives of foresight may also differ. The basic idea is that decision-making in firms
Glenn, and Jakil 2005. Foresight exercises provide policy with better problem definitions, ensuring more involvement of stakeholders
and help to implement the policy (Harper et al. 2008). The special issue of Technology analysis & Strategic management in 2008 provides a good overview of these intended benefits.
In their review of theories and practices of foresight in Europe, Da Costa et al. 2008) list six,
what they call, ‘functions'of foresight for policy-making, see Table 1. Others cluster the intended benefits of foresight into three different objectives (Könnölä, Brummeer and Salo 2007;
Schoen et al. 2011. The first objective, priority-setting, concerns the ambition to identify a shared agenda,
including future actions and allocation of resources. Foresight helps to highlight and evaluate alternative paths.
Brummer, and Salo 2007. Apart from methods and objectives, foresight exercises also differ in the settings in which they are used.
varying from governmental agencies, funding agencies to individual research institutes or firms (Luiten, van Lente, and Blok 2006).
2011) label these settings as‘arenas 'and distinguish between (i) the arena of strategic orientation of research,
the daily production of research and innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 771 Table 1. Functions of foresight for policy-making.
2008). ) Table 2. Foresight objectives in relation to the arenas of governance. Arenas of governance Foresight objective Priority-setting Networking Building visions Strategic orientation Macro policy priority-setting National/EU level stakeholders networks Overall political
2011). ) by universities and firms, the production, diffusion and transfer of knowledge;(iii) the arena of programming,
2011) also link these arenas to the various objectives and present the following comprehensive overview (Table 2). Foresight is exercised also in firms,
where it tends to be framed in costs and benefits (Reger 2001; Rollwagen, Hofmann, and Schneider 2008.
This is the domain of strategic decision-making. Business studies have developed a set of techniques to assess the future for strategic decisionmakkin (Kappel 2001;
Van der Duin 2006. A popular technique is technology roadmapping, which has been used since the 1980s by Motorola and later by many other firms (Willyard and Mcclees 1997), like Philips (Groenveld 1997) and Lockheed martin (Houston and Turner 2001).
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 772 H. van Lente Technological roadmaps basically are creative connections between expected developments in technological skills, sequences of products and potential future
markets. 3. Sociology of expectations In the last decade, the so-called sociology of expectations has studied how in scientific and technological developments actors continuously and explicitly refer to what is possible in the future:
they draw from and add to a repertoire of images, statements and prophecies and by doing
so they contribute to a particular dynamic (Van Lente 1993; Brown 2003; Borup et al. 2006;
Van Lente and Bakker 2010. This approach studies how expectations in science and technology are structured,
how they grow, gain dramatic attention or quietly disappear, and how this affects the decisions of engineers, businesses and governments.
It investigates how researchers, businesses and governments derive their agendas from their collectively created images of a promising technology
and how they are fueled, for instance by the fear of laggiin behind. It is helpful, thus, to study the insights from this literature,
and consider what they mean for the process of foresight. After all, the conscious and deliberate production of expectations in foresight occurs in an environment where promises
People act not only in reaction to the past (socialisattion or present (roles in a social structure),
The orientation towards the future applies to the behaviour of individuals, groups, organisations and society as a whole (Konrad 2006.
but rather a change or creation of a new reality (Guice 1999). In other words, expectations are performative:
likewise, the statement‘this material promises a reduction in electrical resistance of 30%in two years'does something,
they should be able to meet this specification within two years. Van Lente (1993,2000) has argued that such transformation of a promise into a requirement is a central mechanism in the dynamics of expectations:
and will vary in level, content and modality (Konrad 2006). The level of expectations may range from encompassing, abstract sketches of the future (macro) to detailed elements (micro.
And the modalities may range from taken Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 773 for granted statements that do not meet any resistance,
The wellknnow story of Moore's Law is used often as a prime example (Mackenzie 1990.
Gordon Moore, the director of Fairchild Semiconductor in the USA predicted in 1965 that the complexity of integrated memory chip would double every 18 months.
Three years after his prediction, in 1968, Gordon Moore founded with Robert Noyce the company Intel,
however, points to the central role that the prediction has been playing in the strategic game between the manufacturers of memory chips (Mackenzie 1990.
however, it is not easy to distinguish between the validity of a claim and the collective perception of it (Van Lente 2000;
Berkhout 2006. While the financial health of a bank can be verified in ways other than rumours,
such as the roadmaps on the hydrogen economy (Bakker, van Lente, and Meeus 2011). 3. 2. Force of expectations The case of Moore's Law is extreme,
a project or programme can be defended by referring to a promising future (Borup et al. 2006.
While the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 774 H. van Lente current performance of a technology
or present evidence of research may provide insufficient reason for support, the claimed possibilities in the future justify the costs.
and thus be granted support (Konrad 2006). Maybe it failed this time, but the next time it might succeed (Hellsten 2002).
In some cases, such as nuclear fusion, this mechanism has secured costly research during decades (e g. on the Joint European Torus and International Thermonuuclea Experimental Reactor),
while proper results are lacking. Other studies stress that while expectations are needed to start a project or a programme,
they also introduce vulnerability when projects or programmes bring other outcomes than expected as they usually do (Geels and Smit 2000).
A familiar pattern here is the hype cycle, as introduced and used by the Gartner Advisory Group (Borup et al. 2006).
They propose that a new development is accompanied by‘inflated expectations'that receive much attention and mobilise many investments,
Second, expectations provide direction to the search processes of science and technology (Rip and Kemp 1998.
Expectations thus reduce uncertainty in much the same way as heuristics do in research and development (Nelson andwinter 1982.
Finally, there is a coordination effect of expectations (Van Lente 1993; Konrad 2006. Techniica development is not solitary work,
but the work of networks of companies and research institutions. When a central control is lacking,
Rosenberg (1982) argues that expectations about rapid technologicca development may inhibit the development: when potential customers believe that, within the next few months,
an improved version is going to be available, they will postpone the purchase. Studies of financial markets have noted that investors are motivated
and Stein (1992) shows that investors tend to use the speculatiiv information that others use as well;
In the case of genomics, for example, where knowledge about gene sequences and protein structures promises to lead to new,
more sophisticated and effective health technoloogies many types of work are articulated (Van Lente 2006). The promised future situation contains sequencing of genes, characterisation of proteins, databases, dynamic models and so on.
Indeed, there are many examples of unfulfilled promises (Douthwaite, Keatinge, and Park 2001; Hedgecoe and Martin 2003.
Moore's law is an extreme case of a strategic game, reinforced by technology roadmaps, between manufacturers who cannot afford to lose the race.
but still forceful (Brown, Rappert, and Webster 2000). Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 775 3. 3. Expectations
and strategies A general assumption is that expectations can play such a big role due to the inherent uncertaiint of technological development (Antonelli 1989).
Researchers, firms and governments have to make decisions about future products in future markets, about things which,
and are uncertain about their future rivals in the future battlefields (Williams and Sorensen 2002). In addition, sociologiist of science and technology point to the dynamic nature of science and technology:
According to this belief in progress, a next version of products, systems or knowledge will be available (Braun 1995.
Berkhout (2006) emphasises the distinction between private and collective expectations. The first type relates to the cognitive schemes through
Mackenzie (1990) describes in his study on guided nuclear missiles how the degree of uncertainty about the promised capabilities of the missile depends on the distance from the development itself.
but lack insight into the details that may hinder the realisation. For them, the possibilities appear as facts.
Brown and Michael (2003) describe the phenomenon of the trough of uncertainty in the study of clinical applications of biotechnology:
more data Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 776 H. van Lente and more developments (Konrad 2006.
or promoting the‘robustness'of an expectation (Sung and Hopkins 2006). This provides other opportunities for foresight and assessments.
(which includes many choice moments) with more actors, more perspectives and, in general, more reflection (Schot and Rip 1996;
Roelofsen et al. 2008. For foresight exercises, it is relevant to consider that the constructivist perspective acknowledges that others are in the same situation as those who judge the expectations (Van't Klooster and Van Asselt 2011.
In contrast, the realist perspective implies an asymmetry: others may be victims of the game of expectations,
www. gartner. com. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 777‘niche'has been introduced to denote this protection (Vergragt 1988) and traces back to the evolutionary metaphor
of variation and selection (Nelson and Winter 1982. New technological options, as variations within a selection environment may
or guiding visions (Dierkes, Hoffmann, and Marz 1996; Sturken et al. 2004) like the‘electronic superhighway'in the 1990s or the‘hydrogen economy'of the last decade.
The idea is that a choice of the right Leitbilder will lead to a successful coordination of efforts (Grin and Grunwald 2000;
Kuusi and Meyer 2002. The criticism is that such dynamics can be traced only ex post,
and that the approach is insufficiently robust for an ex ante policy (Berkhout 2006). Eames (2006) and his colleagues have studied how the guiding vision of the hydrogen economy has lead to resistance.
They show that when the general vision is filled in with concrete projects contestations will arise.
Their example is the Clean Urban Transportation Europe project in the UK where industrial partners like Daimler-chrysler and BP,
we were taught to treat hydrogen with respect'(Financial times, September 27, 2003, cited in Eames et al. 2006).
The fact that it was supported by a European programme was an additional reason for suspicion.
and thus contribute to lock in (Jacobsson and Johnson 2000; Unruh 2000. On the other hand, foresight can be an antidote as well,
by Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 778 H. van Lente Table 3. Lessons of the sociology of expectations for Foresight objectives of foresight Lessons of sociology of expectations Expectations are drawn from repertoires Expectations
are performative Expectations enhance the strategic character of S&t priority-setting The efficacy of foresight as an antidote to lock in is limited Enhanced legitimation for selected priorities Foresight exercises
‘excessive prioritizing may decrease the diversity of options that challenge conventional approaches and dominant designs'.
an increasingly important task for foresight is to critically reflect on the available, circulating expectations (Könnölä, Brummer, and Salo 2007).
or even circumvent lock in conditions by engaging different stakeholders (Havas 2003). This may support the emergence of competing coalitions.
Such countervaailin strategy, again, is weakened by the dynamics of expectation, because stakeholders may be new, but their contribution will draw from a more general repertoire (Nahuis and Van Lente 2008).
An example here is that public participation in new technologies often does not lead to new and heterodox insights;
instead of new coalitions, old partisan oppositions tend to be reproduced (Rip and Talma 1998. The second lesson is that statements about futures are not innocent descriptions
thus, are not to be seen as descriptive statements that may or may not be true. Once they are voiced
where companies Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 779
referring to the efforts other governments have planned (Berube 2006. 5. Conclusion Foresight exercises can be seen as formal articulations of possible futures,
This involves studies of technology Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 780 H. van Lente assessment, foresight, intermediary organisations, politics of knowledge production and philosophy of technology.
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