time & dates

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Received 25 june 2012 Accepted 17 august 2012 Available online 3 november 2012 Drawing upon the presentations made at the fourth conference on Future-oriented technology analysis,

Future-oriented Innovation Foresight Grand challenges Disruptive Transformations When circumstances become more turbulent it is often the case that an era is regarded retrospectively as one of calm

and continuity even if it were perceived not so at the time. In the current less stable economic, political and social environment it is possible to apply such a lens to the preceding two or three decades.

This essay reflects on the implications for the practice of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) 1 of the current period of instability and discontinuity.

Since the 1990s Nokia would have been on any list of European industrial success stories as it rose to global leadership in themobile telephony sector.

transformations and disruptive change while references to adaptation and alignment hinted at strategies for coping Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 Corresponding author at:

The second powerful strand has been a package of measures designed to reinforce research business linkages,

and more by a process of geological accretion where the structures and policy styles of earlier decades continue, perhaps with some diminution,

but a counter hypothesis would suggest that deeply embedded institutions are equipped better to fight for survival (one thinks of the persistence of at best partially-reformed institutions from the Soviet-dominated era in some post-transition countries).

Donald Rumsfeld made to the Press in 2002 T here are known knowns; there are things we know we know.

J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 and more an input into understanding what its transformative implications might be.

most noticeably but by no means exclusively at European level where societal challenges such as health, energy and food security, transport, climate and resources and innovative and secure societies became first a part of the ERA debate 10 and subsequently a central

plank of the new core programme Horizon 2020 11. The tendency is also visible in the United states where the White house Office of Science

the ensuing simplification would render ineffective from the start the efforts being made to address it.

J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 but may not be desirable to achieve.

or at a single point in time and hence variety of approach remains beneficial Alignment is a more realistic objective.

But there are shared issues with the wider discipline of evaluation in dealing with time-lag between action

and effect and in seeking enough continuity to create the opportunity to apply lessons from previous experiences.

The next two or three years promise to be a critical period for the challenged practices of FTA,

Towards integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303 2004.2 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU US

Chang. 72 (2005) 1059 1063.3 F. Scapolo, A. Porter, M. Rader, Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technol.

Forecast. Soc. Chang. 75 (2008)( 2008) 457 461.4 In: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barré (Eds.

Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008.5 J. Cassingena Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technol.

Manage. 20 (3)( 2008) 267 269.6 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, F. Scapolo, From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis, Futures 43 (3

)( 2011) 229 231.7 A. Geim, Curiosity-driven science: philanthropy or economic necessity, in: Plenary Address to European commission Innovation Convention, 2011.8 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper and F. Scapolo op cit. 9 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper

foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy, Futures 43 (3)( 2011) 243 251.10 L. Georghiou, Europe's research system must change, Nature 452 (2008) 935

936.11 European commission, Communication from The Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic And Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Horizon 2020 The Framework programme for Research and Innovation, Brussels, 30.11.2011 COM

(2011) 808 final, 2011 12 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Sci.

Public policy 39 (2)( 2012) 140 152.13 A. Schoen T. Konnola, P. Warnke, R. Barré, S. Kuhlmann, Tailoring foresight to field specificities, Futures 43 (April 3 2011) 232 242.14 M. Weber

, J. Cassingena Harper, T. Konnola, V. Carabias Barcelo, Building FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations:

Public policy 39 (2)( 2012) 153 165.15 K. Haegeman, F. Scapolo, A. Ricci, E. Marinelli, A. Sokolov, premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS

, Technological forecasting and Social Change 80 (3)( 2013) 386 397. Luke Georghiou is Professor of Science and Technology policy and Management in the Manchester Institute of Innovation research at Manchester Business school.

and R&i policy at the European and international level, serving on a number of EU expert groups. 470 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467

ART86.pdf

This Special issue, like many compendia arising out of a professional conference, offers a sample of the state of the art at a particular point in time.

In this case, the window on the state of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is provided by a conference held in 2011 in Seville, at the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European commission's Joint research Centre.

This was the fourth in the FTA series that started in 2004 and was held again in 2006 and 2008.

These conferences, organized by IPTS, aimed to bring together academics, practitioners, and policy makers from across Europe and around the world to discuss FTA.

The 2011 conference focused on an important topic, the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in response to grand societal challenges.

and discussed at the 2011 FTA Conferences. Papers that overall covered a wide range of points-of-view

Again the authors take a more empirical or applied approach, by focusing on a particular case study, the‘‘Intelligent Manufacturing Systems 2020''project.

The Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jou r nal h o mep ag e:

w ww. elsevier. co m/loc ate/fu tu r es 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

and monitoring of complex dynamic systems and may enable organizations to use long-term visions to effectively link strategy and operations across the whole value chain.

''The time it has taken to edit and finalize this Special issue reflects the difficulty of this kind of ex-post process and the far-flung and changing circumstances of its authors and editors.

and practice that made up the 2011 FTA conversation in the light of subsequent developments.

Furthermore, the editors of this Special issue, each from their own vantage point, have been following the evolution of the disparate fields brought together by FTA over the years.

Of course the‘‘story''of FTA over the last decade can be presented in many ways ours is only one of many possible versions,

Starting with the very first FTA conferences, participants have signalled their concern that an excessive disparity of interests, theoretical starting points,

For instance, in 2008 one of the conclusions noted the‘‘.‘‘constant tension between foresight and FTA, with conflicting views on which is a subset of the other.''

But as time went on the consistent presence of heterogeneous perspectives and the difficulty of making sense of this continued diversity of the FTA voices made another case.

and ending up with a version of the expert's best guess regarding the best bet for winning the industrial or technological race ten or so years on.

like in 2004, that they were not being taken seriously by policy makers. Or that the reality of technological and societal interaction was being simplified overly even misunderstood.

While the technology assessment crowd and the small but regularly present business oriented strategy practitioners voiced worries about the‘‘scientific''legitimacy and practical effectiveness of the at times open ended and exploratory nature of thinking about the future.

as when an orchestra tunes up to finding Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 2 shared tones and interconnected,

Certainly, over time the proportion of papers and discussions preoccupied with forecasting and deterministic roadmapping approaches to the future gave way to a growing awareness and acceptance of other methods,

A second related weakness is signalled by the difficulty of making a credible case for the links between the case studies and the associated methodologies.

Taking the proposition that the future only exists as anticipation as a starting point and that efforts to‘‘use the future''can be understood better by considering the different nature

/Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 3 Elisabetta Marinelli Phd*Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Knowledge for Growth Unit (Kfg), European commission DG

philine. warnke@ait. ac. at Available online 21 january 2014 Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 4

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and academics who are studying foresight processes need to simplify Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

Available online 22 january 2014 Keywords: Foresight Governance National culture Policy making A b s T R A c T This paper addresses the influence of national traditions, styles or culture on the use of foresight in decision-making processes.

The Danish Government's Globalisation Strategy, from 2005, and the Danish research 2015 process, from 2008,

E-mail addresses: pean@dtu. dk, per. dannemand@gmail. com (P. D. Andersen. Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jou r nal h o mep ag e:

future-intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions'.

The Danish Government's Globalisation Strategy, from 2005, and the Research2015 process, from 2008. In both cases, the impacts have been significant and largely measurable in new legislation and budget allocations.

The Globalisation Strategy and the Research2015 process are two attempts to combine the strong Danish tradition for political compromises, negotiations and stakeholder inclusion with evidence-and expertise-based prospective elements.

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 6 One of the most comprehensive and acknowledged studies of national styles in management, decision making

In his original study from the 1970s, Hofstede analysed cultural differences based on attitude questions that were asked of IBM employees in 40 countries.

and covered 76 countries by 2010 22. In the original study, Hofstede presented four dimensions of culture (see Table 1) 20.

types of planning, meaning of time, and tolerance for deviant ideas. The first implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to a society's view on planning in general.

Conversely, strategic planning presupposes a distancing from the certainties (and known uncertainties) of the past and a significant amount of tolerance for new uncertainties.

but more willing to implement bold new policies that may result from a foresight exercise. The second implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to the meaning of time

and thus on how the future is perceived. According to Hofstede, the uncertainty avoidance dimension impacts the question of‘‘how a society reacts on the fact that time only runs one way

and that the future is unknown: whether it tries to control the future or to let it happen''19.

In countries such as France and Japan with a high uncertainty avoidance indexes, time and the future are considered to be something that should be mastered and exploited.

which individuals are integrated into groups P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 7 avoidance, such as Denmark or Great britain,

time is merely a framework for orientation rather than something to be mastered. Adaption to upcoming changes might be considered more important in these countries.

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 8 2. 3. Varieties of capitalism:

L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 9 common use in South Europe and South america and totally absent among the top 10 foresight methods in Northwest Europe and North america.

This late adoption may be due to several reasons. First, during the 1970s, Denmark had some rather negative experiences with prospective planning.

In two prospective plans (Perspektivplan I and II) from 1971 and 1974, the government analysed social trends and developments 15 and 20 years ahead for the public and private sectors, respectively.

However the studies did not foresee the oil crises and the economic crises of the 1970s, and this gave such analyses a rather negative reputation among economists and planners in government.

Second, Denmark‘s tradition of basing policy decisions on analyses of available knowledge is weak.

and Power in Denmark'that was launched by the Danish Parliament shortly before the new millennium 27.

The purpose of the project was to analyse the state of the Danish democracy at the start of the 21st century.

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 10‘Denmark has had never strong traditions for basing political decisions on accessible knowledge as opposed to Sweden, for instance.

As late as the 1980s, the Danish governmental expenditure on research and development (R&d), relative to the country's gross national product (GNP), was among the lowest of the OECD countries.

Finally, for several decades, the Danish Board of Technology (DBT) has played an active and internationally recognised role in the political and wider public debate that concerns the potential and consequences of science and technology.

But this context has changed during the recent decade. Based on the Danish Globalisation Strategy from 2005, public expenditures on R&d have increased.

Consequently, today, Denmark is among the OECD countries with the highest public expenditures on R&d.

In 2005, two thirds of Danish public research funding was appropriations directly to universities and research centres,

and the goal was to increase the competitive portion from one third in 2005 to one half in 2010.

this context has changed during recent decades with increased national R&d budgets and the establishment of a strategic research council.

This changing context has created a need for foresight understood to be political priority-setting for strategic research. 3. 2. Danish experiments with technology foresight In a green paper from 1995,

In 1998, the Danish Board of Technology established an independent working group to analyse and assess the feasibility of a technology foresight programme in Denmark.

The working group recommended that the Danish parliament launched a programme for technology foresight that has a budget of DKK 25 30 million (ca. EUR 3. 3 4. 2 million) over three years.

A technology foresight programme was established with the centre-left government's 2000 business development strategy 30. The strategy contains the following statement:‘.

A pilot programme for foresight was launched early in 2001. The allocated budget consisted of DKK 24 million (ca. EUR 3. 2 million) for the period of 2001 2004.

Following the general elections and the change of Government in November 2001, the ministries were reorganised,

and the technology foresight programme was moved to 1 Authors'translation. P. D. Andersen L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 11 the new Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.

Also following the change in Government, the budget for the technology foresight programme was reduced to DKK 18 million (ca. EUR 2. 4 million).

it must be noted that over several decades, Denmark has carried out foresight-like processes and strategic planning within individual sectors.

First, the section describes the Danish government's 2005 Globalisation Strategy. The Globalisation Strategy aimed at a very broad range of policy areas.

Research2015 aimed to set priorities for the government's strategic research programme or at least, parts of this programme. 4. 1. The government's Globalisation Strategy In the spring of 2005,

''which the reelected government presented after the general election in February 2005. The government established an internal Committee of Ministers and a broad-based Council for Globalisation,

From April 2005 to April 2006, the Globalisation Council held 15 meetings. The meetings typically lasted for two days, from lunch to lunch.

The first meeting was a kickoff meeting, and the following three meetings discussed the Grand challenges that Denmark faces.

These meetings were initiated partly by some background papers that were prepared by the secretariat of the Globalisation Council.

On the first day of the meetings, a number of Danish and international presenters who were

In light of the Globalisation Council's work, in April 2006, the government presented an overall strategy for Denmark in the global economy:‘

L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 12 as the capability of Danish research institutions to meet these needs.

Every four years, such a process should result in a catalogue of important themes for strategic research.

which was initiated by a passage in the Parliament in November 2006 as part of the national budget negotiations for 2007.

The catalogue that resulted from Research2015 was presented in May 2008. The task of coining out the priorities that was identified in the catalogue was given to the Danish Agency for Science Technology and Innovation (DASTI.

This mapping was conducted from March to October 2007. The mapping consisted of three parts. On behalf of DASTI, the OECD's International Futures Programme Unit carried out an international horizon scan,

This implementation came in the form of political negotiations in the context of the budget bill for 2009,2010 and 2011.

During the parliament's budget negotiation in 2008 approximately half of the 21 themes were received prioritised

Thus, the catalogue constituted the basis for prioritisation for the next three years. However other factors, particularly the Parliament's energy agreement, have contributed significantly to the prioritisation process.

During the parliament's budget negotiation in 2008, approximately DKK 1 bn (ca. EUR 134 million) was allocated to strategic research in the two year period of 2009 and 2010.

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 13 4. 3. Discussion of the cases Neither Research2015 nor the Globalisation Strategy was recognised by their key

lives P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 14 elements, such as workshops, hearings,

Theme Budgets in millions of DKKS 2009 2010 Energy, climate and environment Energy systems of the future 190 455 Future climate and climate adaptation 43 0 Climate

Implementation of the Research2015 catalogue in real policy Political negotiations in Parliament, starting with the Fiscal Act of 2009 Most(>75%)of the 21 themes for strategic research were receiving budgets Speakers from the parties

L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 15 5. Conclusion and perspectives This paper aims to contribute to the discussion of national cultures'effects on national foresight exercises.

Acknowledgements An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 12 13 may 2011, JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville, Spain.

Kickoff Conference of the European foresight Platform EFP, 14/15 June, Vienna, 2010, Available: http://www. foresight-platform. eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Key-messages-EFP-Conference-FINAL3-100623. pdf (accessed 20.12.11)( Online.

impacts and implications on policy-making, Futures 43 (April 3))(2011) 252 264.3 A. Havas, D. Schartinger, M. Weber, The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making:

recent experiences and future perspectives, Research Evaluation 19 june (2))(2010) 91 104.4 M. Keenan, R. Barre',C. Cagnin, Future-oriented technology analysis:

Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 163 169.5 E. Eriksson, K. Weber, Adaptive foresight:

navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (May 4))(2008) 462 482.6 O. Saritas, Systemic foresight methodology, in:

the case of Luxembourg, Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 november (8))(2009) 933 951.10 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan,

regions, Foresight 10 (6)( 2008) 16 38.12 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, Positioning future-oriented technology analysis, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds.

Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 1 13.13 L. B. Rasmussen, Interactive scenario analysis, in:

a cross-cultural study between Singapore and New zealand, Industrial Marketing Management 36 (2006) 293 307.18 R. K. Moenaert, A. de Meyer, B. J. Clarysse, Cultural

Managing New technology Development, Mcgraw-hill, USA, 1994, pp. 287 314.19 G. Hofstede, Cultural dimensions in management and planning, Asia Pacific Journal of Management 1984

(January)( 1984) 81 99.20 G. Hofstede, Culture's Consequences: International Differences in Work-related Values, Sage, Beverly hills, CA, 1980.21 M. Minkov, G. Hofstede, The evolution of Hofstede's doctrine, Cross Cultural Management:

An International Journal 18 (1)( 2011) 10 20.22 G. Hofstede, M. Minkov, Long-versus short-term orientation:

new perspectives, Asia Pacific Business Review 16 october (4))(2010) 493 504.23 P. A. Hall, D. Soskice, Varieties of Capitalism:

Institutional Foundations of Comparative Advantage, Oxford university Press, NY, 2001. P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 16 24 P. A. Hall, D. Soskice, An introduction to varieties

of capitalism, in: P. A. Hall, D. Soskice (Eds. Varieties of Capitalism: The Institutional Foundations of Comparative Advantage, Oxford university Press, NY, 2001.25 J. L. Campbell, O k.

Foresight 10 (6)( 2008) 62 89.27 L. Togeby, J. G. Andersen, P m. Christiansen, T b. Jørgensen, Power and Democracy in Denmark.

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 17

ART88.pdf

Evaluating local and national public foresight studies from a user perspective Nicole Rijkens-Klomp a b,,*Patrick Van der Duin c, d a International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands b Pantopicon

We are interested in finding out (1) how scenario analysis as a Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

Available online 21 january 2014 Keywords: Foresight Users Policy Scenarios Dutch government Local National A b s T R A c T In this paper, we discuss the opinions

Motives behind the selection of foresight methods, the timing involved in using insights from foresight studies in strategic policy-making processes, the added value of foresight methods,

ww w. els evier. c o m/lo cat e/fu tu res 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 19 The Overschie case involves the development and use of a qualitative scenario analysis as a strategic building block for a new strategic coalition

We used an independent evaluation that was conducted in 2010 by the University of Twente 21, based on interviews with 21 politicians and civil servants and a document analysis. Furthermore,

including all of its functions, with a time horizon of at least 10 years. At the local level, a document analysis was combined with interviews with policymakers.

and will be elaborated in the coming years. However, the initial findings can already shed new light on the use of foresight methods

N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 20 3. 1. How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of the scenario analysis method?

P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 21 When the main motive for using foresight methods is not necessarily a desire to realise a concrete policy end-product (such as an agenda, vision or strategy),

Apparently, when the time to make a decision comes closer, other issues and (political) interests start playing a role as well.

On the one hand, the long lead time of strategy processes makes the use of foresight methods necessary. On the other hand, this leads to a certain level of disappointment, due to a lack of short-term implications.

P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 22 flexibility of strategies, which was not how they were applied in most case studies (with the exception of The hague), because of a lack of time or expertise.

In the strategic policy documents, we discovered that this connection between scenarios and strategies is also (in part) lacking.

When this buy in happens too late in the process, there is less internal support, and policy-makers and politicians will not experience the added value of the scenario analysis.

To summarise, national level policy-makers seem to be equipped better to conduct foresight studies than their counterparts at the local level. 3. 5. 2. Timing of the foresight study Both at the local and national level,

policy-makers indicated they consider the timing of a future study to be a crucial success factor

The optimal timing is related to the reason for conducting a future study. If it is to increase awareness about the future

the timing of the scenarios will be compared different to a situation where the motive is to test policies by means of scenarios (the latter will take place at a later stage in the policy process).

Most local policy-makers indicated that the foresight process took more time than they initially expected. This was due, in part, to the longer duration of the development phase,

particularly the time needed to generate support and commitment among policy-makers (and politicians). Consequently, there was less time to learn from the foresight study in a strategic 1 Particular issues arise in the case of quantitative forecasting models,

which are perceived often as black boxes by policy-makers. In these cases, contradictory information may indeed emerge as a consequence of different assumptions across models.

N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 23 way. Policy-makers were disappointed as a result of this,

because it conflicted with the widely held belief that futures research methods are instruments that speed up the development new strategic policies.

the duration of the process does not appear to be a major issue. Initiating new foresight processes just before a new Minister

or Secretary is installed is seen as a good moment, because as a result civil servants are prepared well to discuss the new policies with the new Ministers and Secretaries.

local policy-makers mentioned that managerial commitment from the start of a future exploration trajectory is a crucial success factor

when it comes to applying the results of an analysis. Expectations need to be managed at the beginning and throughout the foresight study,

however, that leadership is N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 24 a fragile factor.

In appropriate timing of the foresight study has been deemed a factor contributing to the failure to apply the insights of a foresight study.

The same may apply to the level of embedding with regard to the organisation and the organisational culture;

if they are fully in step with the policy-making process, in terms of their timing, cultural compatibility and usability.

The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, Chichester, 2005.3 H. Kahn, A. Wiener, The Year 2000, Macmillan, New york, 1967.4 P. Schwartz, The Art of the Long View, Wiley

An Advocacy Coalition Approach, Westview Press, Boulder, USA, 1993. N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 25 14 M. Van de Kerkhof, Debating Climate change.

A Study of Stakeholder participation in an Integrated Assessment of Long-term Climate Policy in The netherlands, LEMMA Publishers, Utrecht, 2004.15 P. A. van der Duin, Qualitative Futures research for Innovation, Eburon

. Dauvellier, H. C a. van der Cammen, Limburg 2030: uitstekend in Europa,(Limburg 2030: Excellent in Europe), TNO-Eindrapport, TNO Inro, Delft, 1998.17 Provincie Limburg, Limburg, een generatie verder. 4 scenario's over demografie, economie en milieu

(Limburg, One Generation Further. 4 Scenarios on Demographics, Economy and the Environment), Maastricht, 2006.18 Provincie Limburg, Provinciaal Omgevingsplan Limburg.

Universiteit Twente, 2010.22 J. W. Kooijmans, M. Rours, Decision making Under Uncertainty, Plandag 2011, Brussel, 2011.23 P. A. van der Duin, R. van

An exploratory study into the relationship between futures research and strategy and policy processes at Dutch ministries, Futures 41 (2009) 607 618.24 P. A. van der Duin, J. Dirven, C

. Hazeu, E. van der Linde, P. Rademaker, On the use of futures research for organizational change in Dutch government ministries, Futures 12 (2010) 23 36.25 O. Da

insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (2008) 369 387.26 J. Schoonenboom, Toekomstscenario's en beleid,(Scenarios and policies), Beleid en Maatschappij

30 (2003) 212 217.27 Stuurgroep Toekomstonderzoek Strategisch Omgevingsbeleid, Terugblik op Toekomstverkenningen (Looking back at Foresight studies), The hague, The netherlands, 2000.29 M. Van der Steen

Futures 44 (2012) 475 486.30 S. A. Van't Klooster, M. B. A. van Asselt, Practicing the scenario-axes technique, Futures 39 (6)( 2006) 15 30.31 M. Van der Steen, M. van der Vlist,

R. Demkes, Exploring the future through creative competition: the case of the RWS2020-project, Foresight 12 (5)( 2010) 41 57.32 T. Yoda, Perceptions of domain experts on impact of foresight on policy making:

the case of Japan, Technological forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 431 447. N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 26

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