Synopsis: Time & dates:


ART89.pdf

Global foresight: Lessons from a scenario and roadmapping exercise on manufacturing systems Cristiano Cagnin a b,,

*Totti Ko nno la c adg Joint research Centre for Prospective and Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Seville, Spain b Center for Strategic studies and Management

less attention has been paid to the theory and Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

Available online 12 february 2014 Keywords: Innovation International foresight Roadmapping Scenarios Vision-building A b s T R A c T Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences,

and managing the Intelligent Manufacturing Systems (IMS) 2020 project. The first principle is interconnected understanding innovation systems. This principle ensures that participants position the foresight exercise and their own activities in a global context.

Overall, due to the heterogeneity of global projects, all four principles must also be implemented in keeping with a scalable design approach. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

w ww. elsevier. co m/loc ate/fu tu r es 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

and managing the IMS 2020 project. The authors develop four principles that they believe should be taken into account

timing and institutional constraints. Section 6 summarises the main conclusions. 2. Global foresight design and management The design and management of global foresight projects,

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 28 In the design phase is important to structure aspects such the interactions between people (e g. participants, stakeholders, policy and decision makers,

Along the same line, the ways in which workable agreements will be achieved should be prepared from the outset building upon shared understanding as well as collective and creative knowledge.

and behavioural aspects should be done in a way that is clear and coherent from the beginning of an endeavour

The establishment of strong connections with existing formal and informal networks, 3 particularly those contacts cultivated over the years 18,

can provide a relevant starting point. 2. 4. A‘glocal'impact orientation Many researchers specialised in international management 20,21 have argued for‘glocalization'as the transformation of global and local interests into a new

which takes time and resources. Third, informal networks are developed usually by those in the front line or carrying out the daily work,

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 29 of results. Conducting the investigation this way makes it possible to address multiple levels

intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS) 2020 IMS2020 was an FP7 project funded by the NMP division of the European commission within the IMS Framework, conducted by an international consortium of 15 core partners and a large group

The main objective was the creation of five research roadmaps towards IMS by the year 2020 and beyond.

Four scenario snapshots of possible states of the future by 2025 were developed. Based on these the IMS2020 Vision was defined.

and expectations To kickoff the project-design together with consortia partners most of the initial debate centred on methodological aspects.

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 30 online tools to engage project partners and the supporting roadmapping group4 in well-defined stages.

T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 31 3. 2. Scenarios and joint vision A more in depth analysis of the findings of the state of the art and expectations

6. Developing the selected snapshots highlighting how their main features interact within each possible state of the future by 2025.

The timeframe 2025 was selected both to break from current mindsets and to allow partners to think freely without trying to connect these possible states of the future with the desired IMS2020 vision,

and the likelihood of having such behaviour in 2020. This was done in a dedicated workshop;

During a period of a month and a half a number of online tools were used for this process.

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 32 After the snapshots were developed within each of the four groups they were circulated to all project partners and IMS

project partners had to assess all features within each snapshot scenario with respect to the likelihood and desirability of these becoming reality by 2020.

or likely to happen by 2020. The results of this exercise were used then as an input for the development of the IMS2020 Vision during a vision building workshop,

and somewhat likely to happen by 2020 (likelihood>2). Based on the results of the vision building workshop a first draft of the IMS2020 Vision was developed by JRC-IPTS.

and which reduce the time between engaging with end users and delivering a solution. Sustainable manufacturing possible due to cultural change of individuals and corporations supported by the enforcement of rules

The refined research topics were then prioritised in terms of (i) a timeline between 2010 and 2020,(ii) inter-dependencies between research topics (those

These start from the implementation of the identified research topics and supporting actions between 2011 and 2013

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 33 1 3 years and to be concluded in 3 7 years;

and (ii) actions (RAS in Fig. 4) that are of mid-term implementation (7 10 years), with a wider focus and linked to the research topics,

and 2020 to enable the European commission to identify and select research priorities to be funded in collaboration with the IMS region in this timeline.

Results are currently being used to develop further framework programme (FP) 7 calls and in shaping future RI calls from 2014.

in order to closely involve partners during a period of almost two months. Flexibility was critical to build ownership of results

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 34 calls, as well as workshops with industry.

From the outset the initial design was geared towards taking into account the specificity of context and intentions when identifying guiding questions (i e. intended impacts and objectives), determining participants (i e. type and level of stakeholders'participation),

Activities conducted within IMS 2020 Guiding principles for global foresight Understanding interconnected innovation systems Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures Capacity to reconfigure international networks A glocal impact orientation

and has proved useful to kickoff discussions with diverse stakeholders with different or no understanding of foresight.

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 35 The use of online tools was important to enable partners to collaborate across the project within dedicated spaces

and the communication procedures had been clarified to all from the outset, managing interactions, especially between partners, required more attention.

even if the process as a whole may then exhibit more inertia. By considering the above features in the design phase it is easier to manage the process according to plan.

T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 36 devoted to the joint selection of variables to be used

JRCIPPT proposed a different approach than the one decided at the kickoff meeting: each selected snapshot would be developed by different teams with support from JRC-IPTS.

and stakeholders the second planned workshop was devoted to develop a common vision. Here, although JRC-IPTS was facilitating and giving direction to the discussions,

and partners felt very motivated during the two-day discussions, which was critical to build ownership of results. 4. 4. A‘glocal'impact orientation The management of the exercise integrated discussions on the outcomes of the exercise from the very first project meetings.

During the kickoff meeting the JRC-IPTS framework (Fig. 1) was used to present different alternatives to achieve the intended impacts,

and future EU calls after 2014. At the same time, the way in which the scenarios, the shared vision,

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 37 Acknowledgements The views expressed are those of the author

time for the EU to meet global challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.2 L. Y. Tang, Q. Shen, Factors affecting effectiveness and efficiency of analysing stakeholders

'needs and the briefing stage of public private partnership projects, International Journal of Project Management 31 (2013) 513 521.3 A. Alsan, M. A. Oner, An integrated

integrated foresight management model, Foresight 5 (2)( 2003) 33 45.4 A. Alsan, M. A. Oner, Comparison of national foresight studies by integrated foresight management model, Futures

36 (2004) 889 902.5 O. Saritas, M. A. Oner, Systemic analysis of UK foresight results:

joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 27 65.6 O. Saritas, Systems thinking for Foresight,(Ph d. thesis), Manchester

Toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303.8 T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, V. Brummer, Foresight for European Coordination:

Developing National Priorities for the Forest-Based Sector Technology platform, International Journal of Technology management 54 (4.)(2011.

Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises, Futures 36 (2004) 45 65.10 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R

(2)( 2012) 191 207.12 C. Cagnin, D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, FTA and equity: new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (3)( 2011.

13 A. Salo, T. Ko nno la, M. Hjelt, Responsiveness in foresight management: reflections from the Finish food and drink industry, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2004) 70 88.14 T. Ko nno la, T

. Ahlqvist, A. Eerola, S. Kivisaari, R. Koivisto, Management of foresight portfolio: analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis and Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.15 T. Ko nno la, V. Brummer, A. Salo

, Diversity in foresight: insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 608 626.16 L a. Costanzo, Strategic foresight in a high-speed environment, Futures 36 (2004

) 219 235.17 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science and Public policy 39 (2012) 140

152.18 G. Reger, Technology foresight in companies: from an indicator to a network and process perspective, Technology analysis and Strategic management 13 (4)( 2001) 533 553.19 F. J. Contractor, P. Lorange (Eds.

Cooperative Strategies in International Business Joint ventures and Technology Partnerships Between Firms, 2nd ed.,Pergamon, Amsterdam, 2002.20 C a. Bartlett, S. Ghoshal, Managing Across Borders the Transnational

glocalization/grobalization and something/nothing, Sociological Theory 21 (3)( 2003) 193 209.22 M. Weber, Foresight and adaptive planning as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making:

Reflexive governance For Sustainable development, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 2006, http://www. eelggarenvironment. com/Bookentry contents. lasso?

Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis and Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 1 232.24 T. Ko nno la, Innovation roadmap:

Contributed paper for the 2007 conference on corporate R&d (CONCORD: new and emerging issues in corporate R&d, JRC-IPTS, 8-9/10/07, 2007.25 M. Taish, J. Cassina, B. Cammarino, S. Terzi, N

Milano, March 2010.26 C. Cagnin, Scenarios Snapshots and IMS2020 Vision. Deliverable D2. 2. of IMS2020, Project Number 233469,2009. 27 A. Rolstadas, IMS2020 roadmap for sustainable manufacturing research, in:

Proceedings from the IMS2020 Summer School o Sustainable Manufacturing, 26 28 may 2010, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 2010.28 E. Dall, C. Cagnin, Regional foresight a case

experiences from the preparation of an international research programme, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495.30 D. White, J. Fortune, Current practice in project management an empirical

study, International Journal of Project Management 20 (2002) 1 11.31 E. Osipova, P. E. Eriksson, Balancing control and flexibility in joint risk management:

lessons learned from two construction projects, International Journal of Project Management 31 (3)( 2013) 391 399.32 C. O. Cruz, R c.

Marques, Flexible contracts to cope with uncertainty in public private partnerships, International Journal of Project Management 31 (3)( 2013) 473 483.33 M. Mani, K. Lyons, R

The IMS Summer School Manufacturing Strategy First Edition 2010: Sustainable Manufacturing, 2010.34 D. Klimkeit, Organizational context and collaboration on international projects:

the case of a professional service firm, International Journal of Project Management 31 (2013) 366 377.

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 38


ART9.pdf

Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: Impact on policy and decision-making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR Fabiana Scapolo a,, Alan L. Porter b c, d, Michael Rader e a European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Brussels, Belgium b R&d for Search Technology, Inc

.,Norcross, GA, United states c Industrial & Systems Engineering, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, USA d Public policy, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, USA e

Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe and Karlsruhe Institute of technology, Karlsruhe, Germany Received 29 february 2008 Introduction The contributions included in this special issue build on material presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA

) 1 that took place on the 28th and 29th of September 2006. The Seminar was sponsored

This International Seminar was founded on the success of the joint EU US Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) that was organised by JRC-IPTS in 2004.

and the next conference is scheduled for the 16 17 october 2008 in Seville. This biannual event is becoming a reference within the FTA COMMUNITIES to increase understanding of the advances occurring in the field of FTA for academics

Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 Corresponding author.

10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.03.001 The six articles included in this Special issue were presented in 2006. The overarching theme was the impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making,

methods and approaches Four of the six contributions address a specific theme of the Seminar on the evolution over the years of FTA assumptions, methods and approaches.

In fact, in the past 10 to 15 years, FTAACTIVITIES havemultiplied across a wide spectrum of settings and at different levels.

as contribution towards the establishment of common research policy (i e. the so-called European research area (ERA). 3 This contribution refers to a very specific project

http://ec. europa. eu/research/era/index en. html. 2 http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/intro. html. 458 F

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 The contribution describes methodologies and approaches developed for the purpose.

and learning Another very important theme addressed by the FTA 2006 International Seminar relates to FTA evaluation, impact and learning.

and goal attainment levels. 3. FTA on specific issues Two themes of the 2006 FTA International Seminar put FTA into contexts.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 thus advance the existing literature, on how the business sector (e g. industry, industrial associations and foundations) uses FTA TOOLS for a variety of reasons.

However, a review of recent works on the future of higher education shows that the approaches implemented present three major shortcomings:(

and he addresses the above listed shortcomings. 4. Concluding remarks We note some of the issues presented in the concluding session of the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR.

These stem from an address4 given by The chair and a Member of the Technical Committee of the 2006 FTA Seminar

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 Fabiana Scapolo: She works at the European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre.

Previously, Fabiana was leading for more than 4 years the Foresight activities implemented by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (DG JRC-IPTS) located in Seville (Spain.

and books, including Tech Mining (Wiley, 2005). He focuses on text mining for technology intelligence, forecasting and assessment.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461


ART90.pdf

Towards Innovation Foresight: Two empirical case studies on future TV experiences for/by users Katrien De Moor a b, 1,,

, O. S. Bragstads Plass 2a, 7491 Trondheim, Norway b iminds-MICT, Department of Communication Sciences, Ghent University, Korte Meer 7-9-11

Moscow 101000, Russia 1. Introduction Over the last decade, scholars, policy makers and practitioners from various fields have witnessed

(and even hyped) in the literature is a Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

Available online 21 january 2014 Keywords: Innovation Foresight User involvement User practices Future TV experiences Interaction A b s T R A c T This paper discusses the need for a shift towards more Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes

and contribute to the detection of potential user/societal needs and possible unexpected forms of use. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

and received funding from the European union Seventh Framework programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n°246016.

w ww. elsevier. co m/loc ate/fu tu r es 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

The nature of innovation in this new era is fundamentally different from the earlier technology push

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 40 Although in theory, such inclusive processes aim to strengthen the role and input of users into innovation,

Moreover, traditional user research methods tend to be focused on the‘here and now'and in most cases,

Although it is unknown in the present who the future users of a technology or product will be,

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 41 IF aims to go beyond the‘here and now 'and is situated at the intersection of Foresight, user/market research and humancenntre product design.

They represent two different approaches for going beyond the‘here and now'in the context of innovation research. 3. Illustrations from two empirical case-studies 3. 1. Study 1:

which were not possible at the time of the study (the questions can be found in the appendix).

Their role was to evaluate the ideas in terms of market potential(‘now'and‘in five years),

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 42 survey was taken (end 2009) in percentage of Flemish digital TV-viewers.

The second column‘market potential+5y'indicates the experts'mean estimated potential five years from the moment of surveying (end 2014.

and the last column‘implemented 5y'indicates the number of respondents that thinks this idea will be implemented effectively in five years'time.

but the majority of the experts see them implemented within five years'time anyway. The open source, surveillance and smart home ideas can be considered as the most innovative ideas

The starting point for this study was the observation that this very popular medium has been the subject of rapid technological evolution over the last few years.

Belgium, at the time of the research. K. De Moor et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 43 the TV AUDIENCE, this simplicity is however under pressure.

As a result, it is crucial to reflect on current and future viewing practices and on how the TV of the future should address these evolving practices in order to stay close to the users.

In this study, we therefore involved different types of users in an inclusive process to reflect on possible, probable and/or preferable‘TV experiences of the future (initial time horizon:

2030). ) 3. 2. 1. Methodological approach A multi-method approach was used to stimulate users'creative and imaginative potential in the IF process.

therefore serve as a starting point for empirically grounded personas 27.3.2.1.3. Phase 3. In the third and last research phase,

and may help developers and innovators to not be biased technologically. In total, 11 (Lead) users matching the six distinct persona profiles were recruited for further qualitative exploration. 3 These 11 users participated in creative and imaginative home sessions in

The probe consisted of seven small assignments/questions, one for each day in a week. On day 1

the i-Magine concept was explored. A short video and storyboard with text and pictures visualised a specific multitasking problem

Day 2 of the probe focused on scent-TV and included a DVD with video sequences

and scents matching those sequences. Day 3 focused on holographic TV. Participants were asked to select adjectives from a list

and to match them with pictures of different locations in which they think that holograms would fit.

On day 4, the focus was explicitly on the combination TV Internet: participants were asked to indicate where they would want to watch TV

and have internet access in the future by pasting green and red stickers on pictures of different contexts-of-use (see Fig. 1 on the left).

Day 5 addressed the sharing of content: participants were asked to cut out programmes from a TV programme guide

On day 6, a row of drawings on TV control by gestures was used to elicit 3 For the analogue viewers,

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 44 thoughts, comments and ideas (see Fig. 1 on the right.

On the 7th and last day, the participants sent a postcard to the future describing their ideal future TV experience

a review of the literature on current television viewing practices and time spending patterns confirmed the observation that TV is still predominantly a lean back medium.

and although viewers have the opportunity to watch content‘a la carte',anywhere, any time and anyhow,

and is interested Fig. 1. Examples the cultural probe tools (Day 4 and Day 6). K. De Moor et al./

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 45 Fig. 2. Schematic overview of the developed positive and negative personas.

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 46 in it, but considers herself as a non-expert.

'The PP2 records a lot of content matching personal interests on the digital recorder and watches it at a convenient time.

This persona is aware of the possibilities with regard to time shifting and on-demand viewing, but does not use them.

, popular American fiction series are watched on the day that they are broadcasted in the US. The PP3 is also a very intensive internet user who uses multiple devices and screens (e g.,

but this persona needs time to gradually get used to the new functionalities. The purchase was influenced largely by others in the immediate environment of the NP3.

In both studies, information and intelligence concerning real experiences, practices and visions from a user perspective served as starting points.

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 47 stimulate users'imagination and to empower them to reflect on possible and preferable future developments in the context of TV experiences.

IF aims to go beyond the dominant‘here and now'focus in traditional user research and draws on participation and inclusion of different types of users (not only experts).

such as the objectives of an exercise, time and budget, coverage and time horizon. Secondly, it would be relevant to further investigate the link between Innovation Foresight

Why‘open innovation'is old wine in new bottles, International Journal of Innovation Management 13 (2009) 715 736.3 C. Cagnin, D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, FTA

new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2010) 279 291.4 P. Warnke, G. Heimeriks, Technology foresight as innovation policy instrument:

Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer-verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 71 87.5 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy, International Journal of Foresight

and Innovation policy (IJFIP) 1 (2004) 4 32.6 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, in:

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 48 7 L. Haddon, E. Mante, B. Sapio, K.-H. Kommonen, L. Fortunati, A e. Kant

2005.8 E. Von Hippel, Democratizing Innovation, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2005.9 R. Williams, D. Edge, The social shaping of Technology research Policy 25 (1996) 865

899.10 D. Loveridge, P. Street, Inclusive foresight, Foresight 7 (2005) 31 47.11 K. De Moor, O. Saritas, Innovation Foresight for living labs, in:

Proceedings of Yeditepe International research Conference on Foresight (Yircof 2009), Istanbul, Turkey, 2009.12 O. Saritas, Innovation Foresight and Foresightful Innovation in Europe and beyond, in:

Proceedings Participatory Design Conference, 2008, pp. 186 189.14 J. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technological forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 268

521.15 P. Kristensson, A. Gustafsson, T. Archer, Harnessing the creative potential among users, Journal of Product innovation Management 21 (2004) 4 14.16 H. Rohracher, From passive consumers

Strategies and Limitations from a Socio-Technical Perspective, Profil-Verlag, Munich, 2005, pp. 9 35.17 M. Borup, N. Brown, K. Konrad, H. Van

Lente, The Sociology of expectations in Science and Technology, Technology analysis & Strategic management 18 (2006) 285 298.18 P. den Hertog, R. Smits, The Co-evolution of Innovation theory, Innovation Practice

Challenges of user involvement in future technology analysis, Science and Public policy 37 (2010) 51 61.20 C. Lettl, User involvement competence for radical innovation, Journal of Engineering and Technology management

24 (2007) 53 75.21 R. W. Veryzer, B. Borja de Mozota, The impact of user-oriented design on new product development:

an examination of fundamental relationships, Journal of Product innovation Management 22 (2005) 128 143.22 S. Dimitri, M. Katrien De, M. Lieven De, E. Tom

Proceedings of the 2010 43rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, IEEE Computer Society, 2010.23 E. Von Hippel, Lead users:

a source of novel product concepts, Management Science 32 (1986) 791 805.24 B. Katrien, S. Dimitri, M. Lieven De, Adoption versus use diffusion

Proceedings of the 8th international interactive conference on Interactive TV & Video, ACM, Tampere, Finland,(2010), pp. 15 22.25 E. Von Hippel, The dominant role of users

Proceedings of the Third international conference on Human-centred software engineering (HCSE'10), Springer-verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 2010, pp. 111 118.29 W. Gaver, A. Boucher, S

. Pennington, B. Walker, Cultural probes and the value of uncertainty, Interactions 11 (2004) 53 56.30 F. Sleeswijk Visser, Bringing the Everyday Life of People into Design

a literature review, ejov Special issue on Living Labs 10 (2008. K. De Moor et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 49


ART91.pdf

The roles of fta in improving performance measurement systems to enable alignment between business strategy and operations: Insights from three practical cases Sidnei Vieira Marinho a,,

despite the awareness that both researchers and executives have that organisational performance is linked directly to an alignment between Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 A r T I C L E I N F O

Available online 30 january 2014 Keywords: Performance measurement systems FTA Strategy Implementation A b s T R A c T Despite the growing number of publications on firms'performance measurement systems (PMS), consensus

The authors conclude by highlighting specific ways in which FTA can be integrated in the PMS proposed. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

2014.01.015 0016-3287/2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. endogenous variables (strategy, structure and processes) and exogenous ones (e g. environmental uncertainty and technology).

and change over time (Annex 1). The authors thus developed a new PMS to tackle these limitations,

and its implementation across a firm value chain does not allow the whole system to become flexible and adaptive over time.

when used in conjunction with other models such as the BSC, the Quality Function Deployment 26 and the GBN method 27.

will behave or evolve over time. Moreover, the scenario development process should become an important contribution to organisational learning 28.

These actions S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 51 together represent the strategy translated into operational actions,

C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 52 into account the availability and facility to access information,

the first a monitoring and control circuit (single loop) and the second a learning circuit (double loop.

S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 53 system followed the designed phases and steps.

nor the shaping of a shared vision to be developed. 3. 2. An example from the higher education sector 3. 2. 1. Rationale The second case focused on a higher education institution that was pursuing a management model focused on efficiency standards for sustainability and continuity in the long run.

S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 54 attending the communities which depend on such social projects.

Moreover, working laws restricted the possibilities of continuity during the holiday's period. Through the Management of Strategic Initiatives (step 5 phase 3) the institution was able to properly map the university processes

and projections for the years to come. 3. 3. An example from the not for profit sector 3. 3. 1. Rationale The third case was selected due to the growing importance of the third sector in Brazil and worldwide.

These were generated through the development of strategy maps (phase 2), in conjunction with the city of Floriano'polis, SC, Brazil and relevant stakeholders,

but the sustainability of the project is expected to happen only in five years. This means that there is a need to establish clear priorities with deadlines

and to enable the community to monitor success during the next five years. This should stimulate motivation

and support stakeholders to believe in the project being idealised. Hence, the proposed system should improve in terms of its notion of stakeholder involvement to enable the development of a common vision to be pursued across the system,

and to develop an action plan to monitor the achievement of the agreed vision as well as enable adaptation over time. 3. 4. Limitations of the proposed system

These are critical to enable it to become flexible S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 55 and adaptive,

like any other BSC, most often short-term (usually five years or less). Also, it does not allow disruptive

and the overall system to become adaptive over time. The limitations of BSC which were still not effectively addressed by the proposed system,

C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 56 Foresight also supports the firm's and its stakeholders'ability to develop a joint vision

S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 57 intelligence systems, direction setting, priority setting, strategy formulation, marketing, organisational change,

(i e. value chain) and individuals to become adaptive over time. Finally, embedding FTA within the system proposed shall enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.

which nowadays is referred to as a strategy map 57 61 System dynamics 61 65 In order to analyse the cause and effect relationships between measures,

36,37 Skandia Navigator 71 75 The balanced scorecard does not take into account the interaction between the processes of strategy development and implementation 1, 69 Proposed system Marinho and Cagnin (present paper, forthcoming

) S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 58 Annex 2. Casual relationship diagram.

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of performance measurement systems as a form of implanting strategy throughout an organization, in: Annual British Academy of Management Conference, 2008.6 F. Okumus, A framework to implement strategies in organizations, Management Decision 41 (2003) 871 882.7 D c. Hambrick, A a

. J. Cannella, Strategy implementation as substance and selling, Academy of Management Executive III (1989) 278 285.8 M. Freedman,

The genius is in the implementation, Journal of Business strategy 24 (2003) 26 31.9 L. E. Bossidy, L. R. Charan, Execution:

The Discipline of Getting Things Done, Crown Business, New york, 2002.10 R. Kaplan, D. Norton, Execution Premium, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, Massachusetts, 2008.11

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what is still to be explored, Journal of Management 32 (2006) 673 719.15 K. A. Meers, Contextual barriers to strategic implementation:

an examination of frontline perspectives, Journal of American Academy of Business 11 (2007) 11 16. 16 O. Furrer, H. Thomas, A. Goussevskaia, The structure and evolution of the strategic management field:

a content analysis of 26 years of strategic management research, International Journal of Management Reviews 10 (2008) 1 23.17 V. C. Prieto, M m.

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