Received 11 march 2008 Received in revised form 6 april 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 The sustainable transformation of infrastructure sectors represents a challenge of prime importance worldwide.
Due to long life times of infrastructures, strategic decision making has to explicitly consider uncertainties in context conditions,
The present paper argues that foresight informed strategic planning, allows addressing trade-offs related to context uncertainties,
2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Regional foresight Strategic planning Participation Infrastructure 1. Infrastructure planning and foresight In OECD countries, most infrastructure sectors such as electricity supply, water supply and sanitation were constructed over the 20th century by implementing a narrow
socio-technical paradigm of central generation plants with wide area distribution networks. The presumed superiority of this paradigm relied on a series of assumptions,
and the politically set criteria of effective, homogenous and affordable infrastructure services 2. It is fair to say that this socio-technical constellation has been highly successful over the past decades.
Nowadays infrastructure organizations are confronted with an increasing amount of future uncertainty 3 that calls for a fundamental reconsideration of the former success model, at least in three respects:(
Over the past decades, strategic planning in these sectors was focused mostly on narrowing down context uncertainties, value considerations and system configurations to reduce complexity and ease implementation 1, 4. Given the increased range of uncertainties,
these approaches are often deficient with regard to addressing the broad range of uncertainties associated with the long planning horizon (more extensively treated in 5). Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Corresponding
0040-1625/$ see front matter 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.008 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting
and suggesting implementation strategies 7. In the present paper, we want to build on foresight methods for improving strategic decision making in infrastructures through the method of Regional infrastructure foresight RIF.
In the present paper, we aim at explicating the contribution of the foresight approach to the identification of trade-offs.
Due to the long life time of their key technical components and the strong coupling between technological and institutional structures they exhibit strong path dependencies 11.
They are particularly strong in OECD countries where infrastructure networks have been established since decades. In the social science literature, the couplings have been described as socio-technical regimes.
Given the long life times of most infrastructures, strategic investment decisions will only take place every couple of decades.
For almost one hundred years in industrialized countries, infrastructure 1151 E. Störmer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 organizations have been optimizing to guarantee the provision of homogeneous and affordable services.
Today a balanced consideration of environmental, social and economic aspects is necessary 16. Strategic planning processes are a key for determining the appropriateness,
performance and sustainability impacts of infrastructures over their long life time. Changes in context conditions outside the considered range may entail very costly adaptation measures (see e g. 17),
a more elaborate and open approach to strategic planning seems very timely. 2. 2. Foresight supporting infrastructure planning Foresight methods have been developed over the past decades to explicitly address substantial uncertainties in technology development.
In line with this shift of attention, foresight was conceived mainly as an informing policy task until the 1970s,
Land use transportation scenario planning projects have been carried out since the late 1980s in the US 37. In particular metropolitan transportation has moved from a supply-side focus siting facilities to meet projected demands toward a more 1152 E. Störmer et al./
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 integrated system-and demand-management perspective 38, p. 4. Some scenario projects show a variety of different land use
but is rather an important first step in an overall strategic planning process (Coates 1985 cited in 25).
and system alternatives for an infrastructure system in the time horizon of 25 years which is congruent with the expected average lifetime of central infrastructure components.
The RIF process typically runs for nine months during which several working groups interact in a highly structured way.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 actors. The core team selects approximately a dozen stakeholder representatives according to their influence and affectedness 61.
board minutes and stakeholder interviews, they identify the strength and weaknesses of the prevailing technical and organizational setup to address claims from customers, public, regulatory bodies and the affected environment 62.
and uncertain factors for further analysis. During the first stakeholder workshop the participants project different possible states of each of the factors in the year 2030+of each of the suggested influencing factors.
They construct the context scenarios for the year 2030+discursively by describing coherent and plausible scenarios that are regional specific 63,64.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 For analyzing these trade-offs, we have developed two graphical representations of the assessment data.
This may indicate risks that have to be considered before implementing the solution. The lower circle calls for some caution in discarding these options
we introduce a second visual representation of the data (see Fig. 3). As a first dimension,
(i e. balanced) basis. The location of options in Fig. 3 may now be interpreted as follows: a coincidence of social and sustainability assessments is given
if points are located in the diagonal area pointing to the upper right corner. Points to the left of the diagonal indicate potential sustainability deficits as the option is more desirable from the average stakeholder groups'perspective than from a balanced sustainability perspective.
On the other hand, the vast amount of discursive material assembled during the nine month process is very difficult to grasp
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 participate in the different stages of the process.
Connection rates of households to centralized wastewater treatment plants rose from form 15%in 1965 to 97%in 2005.
The assets built up during these decades amount to approximately 100 Billion euros 68. Today however, there is a high need for repair and renewal.
The sanitation system has limited flexibility to adapt to changing context conditions as its key technical components have a very long life time (e g. sewer system last 80 years,
wastewater treatment plants last 25 years 17). Communities own and operate most of the sanitation systems.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Based on a national analysis of The swiss sanitation system 69 and a call for participation in innovative strategic planning processes,
These cases were run between late 2006 and early 2008. In the next section, we present the process
to 2. 5 full time equivalents each. The plant operating organizations are associations of communities,
and thus lack employees to guarantee 24 hour availability. Therefore, the idea of an organizational integration of the associations had been raised.
In the first workshop, the stakeholders elaborated four alternative scenarios describing context conditions in the year 2030+based on the set of influencing factors
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 the prevailing technical structure and the autonomy of the existing organizations.
Environmental impact ranked only second in their priorities. In contrast, the industry's stakeholders favor besides low tariffs, additionally low levels of bureaucracy as well as voice and participation in the associations decision board. 4. 4. Exploring the trade-off landscape The virtual future stakeholder groups
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 and a forceful coordination of regional sanitation services.
a transitory organization would be necessary to implement a stepwise decision process taking place over one or two decades.
One year later the political decision making process approved this plan that first foresees an intensified collaboration of joint human resource management leading to joint ownership of facilities
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 The elaboration of a joint system representation by the different organizations in the Kiese catchment furthermore prepared the ground for intensified collaboration and shared visions.
options and timing aspects of a conjointly favorable course of action could be elaborated. At the same time, open issues associated with the merger option could be identified
In this process the result was a radically different solution compared to an earlier recommendation gained in a conventional planning process less than two years earlier:
and outlook In this present paper we developed and applied an explorative oriented approach to strategic decision making in infrastructure planning.
We argued that due to the long life times of key technical components of these sectors
Members of the core team had to invest about seven full days over a nine months period for participating in the RIF procedure.
The affiliations of the core team members in the decision making bodies guaranteed the persistence of the argumentative structure in later stages of the planning process.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Acknowledgements The project Regional infrastructure foresight was funded by The swiss National science Foundation within the National research Program 54 Sustainable development of the Built Environment.
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/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162
Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies Raija Koivisto, Nina Wessberg, Annele Eerola, Toni Ahlqvist, Sirkku Kivisaari, Jouko Myllyoja, Minna Halonen VTT Technical research Centre of Finland
Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 11 june 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools,
suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools. 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The context, emphasis and time horizons of examination vary, however. For instance, risk assessment in the context of industrial process safety aims to predict the risk caused by a failure, deviation,
The time horizon considered typically is a couple of years maximum referring to the practice to revise the analysis every three to five years.
In an ideal situation the risk analysis is performed continuously to check all appearing changes and situations.
The time horizon varies from some five to fifty years, depending on the issues examined and the purpose of the foresight exercise.
whereas in foresight exercises the positive developments like innovation possibilities has Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Corresponding author.
0040-1625/$ see front matter 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.012 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting
Hence, somehow the link between these two research traditions is in essence present, but in practice the researches, research projects
A systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term visionbuilldin process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint action.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Both the SECI and SLC model emphasize the shared knowledge making.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 interviews. Megatrends and weak signals are also the crucial targets of the examination:
and space technology in the 1960s 13. These fields are renowned for their complicated systems, where possible accidents may have far-reaching consequences.
During the 1970s, a worldwide trend of increasing accidental losses in factories was recognised 14. Process industrial operations also became more complex and larger volumes of chemicals were used at higher pressures than previously.
Various major accidents in the process industry in the 1970s (e g. Flixborough, 1974; Seveso, 1976;
A systematic and Fig. 2. A systemic framework for methods 10.1 For instance, the TA studies carried out by the US Office of Technology (OTA) in 1974 1995 primarily served to inform Congress
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 analytic way to assess and manage risks in a complex context was rapidly showing its success. The number of industrial accidents
A systematic risk analysis typically starts, after the data gathering, with the identification of hazards and the associated hazardous scenarios according to a specific procedure defined by the selected risk analysis method.
In recent years the approach towards more comprehensive and holistic risk management has strengthened. Approaches like inherent safety 26 in process design as well as resilience engineering 27 in process operating address the complex nature of industrial process.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 the resilient ecosystem dynamics, the resilience engineering stands for an industrial process
Risk management is based not on a striving for perfection from the start nor even on systematic surveillance of deviances for the purpose of correcting them,
research period 2006 2009. The aim was to study the possibilities of proactive risk assessment and management of critical infrastructures based on the integration of risk assessment and scenario development methods.
The time frame of the study was the year 2015. The study addresses that the more the scope of risk analysis is moving into a not-so-well-known field the more the risk identification becomes the crucial part of the process 28.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 The INNORISK Managing opportunities, risks and uncertainties project is a 3-year (2006 2009) joint research project between the Corporate Foresight
a medium-size company offering control systems for high-tech companies, a medium-size technology company and a large-size technology company. 2 The back-pocket roadmap starts
as well as the drivers and bottlenecks of the ongoing business in a defined time perspective 29.
in order to evaluate their business potential after 5 10 years in a medium-size company. One opportunity was selected for more thorough concept development including iterative steps of idea generation and enrichment,
Risks, Potential and Adaptation (CES, time frame 2007 2010. The project aims at assessing the development of the Nordic electricity system for the next 20 30 years.
It will address how the conditions for production of renewable energy in the Nordic area might change due to global warming.
the general risk assessment procedure, guidelines for gathering the background information, the seasonal plan, risk identification model
The seasonal plan, for instance, aims at stimulating the risk identification process by listing the normal seasonal routines of the hydropower plant,
e g. spring floods or ice cover freezing over the river in the 2 E-mail discussions with Pasi Valkokari in INNORISK project March 6th 2009.3 E-mail discussions with Pasi Valkokari in INNORISK project March 6th
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 autumn. Potential climate change effects are added then to the seasonal plan
and changes to the normal seasonal routines can be noticed; the future is linked in that way to present situation.
Risk assessment procedure in CES is designed on the basis of brainstorming sessions between power plant operators and managers as well as climate change experts.
Background information contains, for instance, the modelling of the changes in the river flows based on the climate change scenarios.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 The positioning of the case projects in the Fig. 4 can be explained by the types of projects:
CES project, for example, stresses the operational level risk assessment whereas the INNORISK project's starting point is corporate strategic decision making.
risk analysis expert may know e g. roadmapping method, but does not understand that it is the most usable only in the prescription phase of the foresight process.
for example related to resource allocation or the formation of strategic partnerships/joint actions. o Informative outcomes refer to the use of foresight to improve the understanding of present and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts.
Fixed vs. autonomous management o Fixed management can be characterised as centralised approach in which co-ordinators fix the scope and methods of the exercise at the outset and control the process,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Fig. 1. However, the normal monitoring and evaluation actions are conducted
Fig. 5 also shows that the assessment of new emerging risks demands longer time-frame and a more contingent examination approach.
and risk assessment traditions in emerging risk assessment would then help in applying the more contingent and holistic approach in more fixed and short time risk assessment exercises.
Fig. 5. The relationships between risk assessment and FTA METHODS according to the time frame and approach. 1172 R. Koivisto et al./
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 4. 3. Lessons learned from the case projects The basic lessons learned from the case projects are shown in Table 1. The case projects of this paper (IRRIIS, INNORISK,
which is constantly present. The second benefit may come from the participatory and networking approach of different expert analyses.
and to create knowledge to help decision making in defining management strategies concerning the changes the future may cause.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 than the FTA PROCESS. In turn, there is a shift towards a more contingent approach also in risk assessment as is in FTA APPROACH.
which is more common nowadays, for instance, in FTA APPROACH. Either way, both approaches may benefit methodologically from each other in developing better methods for assessing the futures.
which are more capable of taken into consideration the longer time frames than have been common in risk analysis tradition before.
This may, for example, concern integration of theories of networks or organisational culture in risk management more solidly.
In the Book‘Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy',Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 25 40.2 T.,Könnölä, T.,Ahlqvist, A.,Eerola, S.,Kivisaari, R.,Koivisto
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Studies 1 (9)( 2000) 73 102. Table 2 The main characteristics, differences, similarities and future expectations.
Time horizon 0 5 years 5 50 years Phases Scope definition, risk identification, risk estimation (probability, consequences), risk evaluation The pre foresight phase
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Prof. Raija Koivisto has over twenty years experience in safety, security, risk assessment and foresight related research at VTT.
Her current research interests include emerging risks and critical infrastructure protection, among others. She also holds a docent position in the University of Oulu
She graduated in environmental engineering (M. Sc. 1996) and in environmental policy (M. Sc. 1997, Lic.
2000 and D. Sc. 2007. She was first working as an environmental policy researcher at the University of Tampere.
In 1999 she joined VTT to work in developing the management of environmental risks. In 2007 she entered VTT's Technology foresight and technology assessment team.
Dr. Annele Eerola is Senior Research scientist and Deputy Technology manager of the knowledge centre‘Organisations, Networks and Innovation systems'at VTT.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Dr. Toni Ahlqvist is Senior Research scientist and Team Leader of Technology foresight and Technology assessment team at VTT.
Minna Halonen (MSC) has been working as Research scientist at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland since 2004.
She graduated in applied geography from the University of Rome La Sapienza in 2003. Her main research interests concern technology foresight, service research and sustainable development. 1176 R. Koivisto et al./
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176
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