time & dates

ART2.pdf

Frontiers of futures research: What's next? Theodore J. Gordon, Jerome C. Glenn*,Ana Jakil American Council for the United nations University, 4421 Garrison Street N w.,WASHINGTON DC 20016, United states Received

13 may 2004; received in revised form 24 october 2004; accepted 1 november 2004 Abstract This paper describes some important frontiers of futures research with the aim of identifying new opportunities for improving the value and utility of the field.

These frontiers include the exploration and/or the reexamination of (a) Potential for integrating new technology with futures research methods,

(b) Ways to reduce the domain of the unknowable, (c) Ways to account for uncertainty in decision making,(d) Strategies for planning and management of nonlinear systems operating in the chaotic regime,

there is no assurance that the evolution of such methods 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 American Council for the United nations University.

Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 will lead to a more organized bscience-likeq field with a theoretical basis. Not only are there many diverse techniques for theorizing,

Just forty years ago, computers were not much of a factor in futures research. The Delphi method was accomplished with pencil and paper in 1963,

forty years from now nearly all futures methods will be conducted in software, through networks, with diverse and changing sets of people, continually cross-referencing data,

an idea before its time is apt to result in derision and dismissal 3. T. J. Gordon et al./

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1065 So, given these circumstances, how can the domain of the unknowable be reduced?

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1066 nonlinear (that is, input and output are related not in a one-to-one fashion) and, through excessive feedback or bgain,

since conditions in the past were almost certainly different than the present. Do these arguments lead to the conclusion that modeling

Second, nonlinear models can be built to simulate real life systems that operate in a stable mode most of the time.

In the old days validity was tested by building models with data through some date in the past

and then using the model to bforecastq the interval to the present. If there was a match,

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1067 6. Judgment heuristics People often make irrational decisions.

but there are about 100 times more salesmen than librarians. So given only the sparse amount of information in this example, salesman would have been a better bet.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1068 9. Conclusions This paper has identified several frontiers

and challenges that may give new vitality to futures research. Certainly as they and other directions are explored the field will gain new thinking

Thus, these frontiers will serve as important orientation in the elaboration of the second edition of Futures research methodology 2. 1 (CD-ROM) to be published by American Council for the United nations University early in 2005.

Futures research methodology Version 2. 0 (CD-ROM), American Council for the United nations University, 2002. For further information see:

http://www. acunu. org/millennium/FRM-v2. html. 2 Robert J. Lempert, Popper Steven, Steven C. Bankes, Shaping The next One hundred Years:

Change 42 (1992) 1 15.5 Daniel Kahneman, Slovic Paul, Tversky Amos (Eds. Judgment Under Uncertainty:

Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge university Press, 1982. Theodore J. Gordon is Senior Fellow and cofounder of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United nations University.

He is the founder and Board member of The Futures Group International and member of the Board of the Institute for Global Ethics, UK.

Jerome C. Glenn is the director of the Millennium Project bwww. acunu. orgn for the American Council for the United nations University

and has 35 years experience in futures research with governments, UN organizations, corporations, universities, and nonprofit organizations.

He can be contacted at jglenn@igc. org. Ana Jakil is interning with Millennium Project for the American Council for the United nations University.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1069

ART20.pdf

The role of the technology barometer in assessing the performance of the national innovation system Torsti Loikkanen a,,

Received 10 november 2008 Received in revised form 11 june 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 Along with increasing significance of innovation in socioeconomic development grows the need to utilize future-oriented knowledge in innovation policy-making.

since the late 1990s and reached leading nations in early 2000s. This attainment raised national interest and critical debate of the reliability of the data basis and methodologies used in comparisons.

The barometer has been undertaken in 2004 2005 and 2007, and a wide interest and emerged discussion of barometer proves that a social interest

and order exists for the barometer. The article presents the background, methodology and results of technology barometer, discusses its impacts on national discussion,

and gives perspectives for the future development of barometer. 2009 Published by Elsevier Inc. Keywords: Innovation policy Science and Technology indicators Barometer Future-oriented knowledge 1. Introduction A growing number of different international comparison systems of the economic and innovation performance of nations have emerged within a decade 2

. The role of performance comparisons has become increasingly important in the era of globalization when competition is not only between multinational and other enterprises but also between economies and innovation systems.

Comparisons are based on a number of different indicators, composite indicators or survey based studies providing comparisons in a wide range of fields like economy, society, education, innovation system, or sustainable development.

and sometimes even elusive issues and they often seem easier to interpret by the Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 Corresponding author.

0040-1625/$ see front matter 2009 Published by Elsevier Inc. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.011 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change general public than finding a common trend among many separate indicators.

Accordingly composite indicators must be seen as starting points for initiating discussion and attracting public interest 1, 2. Finland has improved her positionamong developed nations according to several internationalperformance comparisons since the latter part of 1990s,

and soon in early 2000s reached a position among leading nations for example according to competitiveness reports of IMDANDWORLD Economic Forum (WEF).

Although Finnish policy-makers, industrial community, scientists and citizens have followed international comparisons and related discussion with great interest,

i e. they are based only on past and often outdated data, and not on examination of future development.

Fromthe start TEK included in the barometer both a comparative study of reference countries, based on indicators of past development,

The Finnish association of graduate engineers developed a technology barometer in collaboration with VTT Innovation studies during 2002 2003. The first technology barometer was published in 2004

and since then that barometer has been repeated twice in 2005 and 2007 3 7. The plan is to publish a barometer once in every two to three years.

The content of the technology barometer will be developed further in appropriate ways, however, without jeopardizing its comparative nature

so that the comparison of indicators of latest exercise to those of previous barometers remains possible. 2. Theoretical framework

and methodology Technology barometer is a societal indicator instrument with a strong emphasis on the innovation environment.

and second, to a technology barometer based on a survey study of the visions and attitudes of relevant national key actor and interest groups.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 The theoretical framework of technology barometer is based on various economic development stages since the first barometer exercise in 2004.

In conjunction with the reform of the Finnish information society strategy, the knowledge society is defined as one where knowledge

In conclusion, an indicator study of the technology barometer comprises 12 sub-indicators providing an index-type key value indicating the state of technology at a given time.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 composite indicators to avoid datamanipulation andmisrepresentation 1. OECD publications 1,

According to this index figure Finland rates as second after Sweden in Technology barometer 2007. In the same way other combined composite indicators determine Finland's proportional rating compared to the reference group countries in different areas of technology barometer (the content of Technology barometer 2007 is presented in Appendix B

). Besides the indicator-based comparative analysis the technology barometer includes a forward-looking survey of future expectations of relevant target groups.

Together these analyses give an all-inclusive understanding of the present state and future perspectives of techno-scientific development of the nation.

Despite the vast amount of interest in the Nordic innovation policy during the last decade, even this approach may have its pitfalls.

The first barometer was published in 2004. Having reached its 3rd round of implementation it is now possible to see what type of development trends are currently in progress in addition to the key numbers of each individual study.

Fig. 3 below is a synthesizing presentation of Finland's position according to the 2007 barometer

and related change of position as compared to the barometer of 2005 6, 7. The synthesis paints a picture of the country's progress in each indicator of two recent technology barometers.

Compared to the previous indicator studies (Technology barometer 2004 and 2005 positive development was observed in entrepreneurship and openness to internationalism. 1180 T. Loikkanen et al./

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 3. 2. Survey study of future visions In addition to indicator-based comparison the technology barometer instrument includes a survey about people's expectations regarding the future development trends.

altogether Fig. 3. Positioning Finland in technology barometer 2007: Figure sets out Finland's above-average or below-average rating in comparison to the reference group (the y axis),

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 272, were 2nd year students sitting for their matriculation examination.

and results of indicator study obtained in 2005 and 2007. Standard statistical practices such as the Mann Whitney U test, were applied to analyze the results.

The 2007 survey had, among others, the following results. According to the results, the Finnish politicians are consistently more optimistic than professional engineers or company executives about the country's techno-economic development.

Accordingly technology barometer 2007 accentuated the following three crosscutting themes: the changing role of knowledge-intensive work, innovations and business,

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 most notably in terms of social needs and innovation policy interest, for the kinds of insights that the technology barometer exercise can deliver.

and publish technology barometer at appropriate intervals of two or three years. The precise timing of barometer procedure depends

moreover on different factors affecting the national economy and innovation system. For example, political changes and elections,

meaning that the comparison of latest exercise with previous ones remains possible, allowing the identification of changes occurred in the course of time both in indicator study as well as in survey study.

Recent relatively radical changes of Finnish innovation policy are challenging data basis and indicators of research and innovation,

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 indicators. Moreover, the process of developing Finnish national strategic centres for science, technology and innovation is underway in the technology fields with future importance for businesses and the society.

Development of comprehensive indicators is time-consuming requiring a fair amount of resources as well as a widespread contact network within the society.

JRC (2002) and compilation by OECD. Area/name of composite indicator Economy Composite of Leading indicators (OECD) OECD International Regulation Database (OECD) Economic Freedom of the World

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 Appendix B. Technology barometer 2007 Technology instrument for measuring citizens'attitudes and the nation's orientation towards a knowledge-based

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 References 1 M. Nardo, M. Saisana, A. Saltelli, S. Tarantola, A. Hoffman, E. Giovannini, Handbook

, Tekbaro 2005 Teknologiabarometri kansalaisten asenteista ja kansakunnan suuntautumisesta tietoon perustuvaan yhteiskuntaan, Tekniikan Akateemisten Liitto TEK, Tikkurilan Paino Oy Ab, Vantaa

, 2005.6 O. Lehtoranta, P. Pesonen, T. Ahlqvist, E. Mononen, T. Loikkanen, Tekbaro 2007 Teknologiabarometri kansalaisten asenteista ja kansakunnan suuntautumisesta tietoon

Tekniikan Akateemisten Liitto TEK, Painotalo Miktor, Helsinki, 2007.7 O. Lehtoranta, P. Pesonen, T. Ahlqvist, E. Mononen, T. Loikkanen, Technology barometer 2007

Revolution or a History of the Future, 1991 New york, XXXX. 11 M. Castells, The Rise of Network Society, The Information age:

Economy, Society and Culture, vol. II, Blackwell, Cambridge, MA, 1997.13 M. Castells, The End of the Millennium, The Information age:

Economy, Society and Culture, vol. III, Blackwell, Cambridge, MA, 1998. Torsti Loikkanen is a Senior Research scientist

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186

ART21.pdf

The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany Kerstin Cuhls a,, Amina Beyer-Kutzner b, Walter Ganz c, Philine Warnke d a Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research (ISI), Breslauer Str. 48,76139 Karlsruhe, Germany

Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 11 june 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 In September 2007,

All of them are specifically knowledge dynamic fields. 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Foresight process Fully fledged foresight Bibliometrics Strategic partnerships Research alliances 1. Introduction In September 2007, the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) launched a new foresight process

in order to sustainably safeguard Germany's status as a research and education location. The process started with four objectives

Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 Corresponding author. E-mail address: kerstin. cuhls@isi. fraunhofer. de (K. Cuhls.

and technology and was broadened to look into the future of the next 10 to 15 years and even further.

latest developments in various technological-scientific subject areas were analysed, consolidated and processed in order to attain a reliable description of the international state-of-the-art.

In a second wave nearly 1 year later, they were interviewed once more to consolidate their opinions

and interviewed in order to find the most promising topics in research and technology for the next 10 to 15 years or even further in the future.

These topics should still be in the research or development phase during this time. Topics that will already be in the implementation phase during the next years,

or are transferred already to innovations in 10 years'time were excluded from the lists of topics to be considered.

For first selections a set of criteria was developed together with BMBF. Fig. 1. Combination of different methods. 1188 K. Cuhls et al./

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 The topics were handled, internally assessed and reassessed several times via an internal database and scientific papers.

As an input to the first workshop in November 2007, a first set of scientific papers describing the developments in the fields were written

The milestones of the process are described in Fig. 2. The first workshop was held as a starting point in the process to define those topics which should be elaborated in more detail,

These interfaces were the starting points for the searches at the national and international level. For every field, topic coordinators (sometimes two persons) were nominated who were responsible for defining

Topics, in which BMBF or German research institutions were already very active at that point in time were labelled as‘golden

An online survey among experts from the German innovation landscape was performed in September 2008 in order to get broader assessment on the topics,

their importance and their time frame (see below. Parallel to this, the corresponding innovation systems were being analysed

in order to identify candidates for potential strategic partnerships which are proposed in 2009 at the end of the whole process (Objectives 3 and 4). In the last phase of the process,

Nevertheless, this conference marked the beginning of the integration of the topics that were identified into the German innovation system and into BMBF.

these fields were selected as starting points to search for new topics in science and technology, at first at the national level, later on internationally.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 The topic fields were: 1. Life sciences and biotechnology 2. Information and communication technology 3. Materials and their production processes 4. Nanotechnology 5. Optics/photonics/optoelectronics 6. Industrial production processes

Services Science In a first workshop with 110 participants in November 2007, these 14 thematic fields were discussed with respect to emerging topics

In the plenum session, a guided fictive time travel served as a mind opener. The workshops themselves addressed the 14 thematic fields themselves

These crosscutting areas were additional starting points for searches. Fig. 3. Timeline of the methodology and different outputs at the end. 1190 K. Cuhls et al./

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 3. 2. Search phase of the process The second phase of the foresight process encompassed a further national and international search, interviews with Monitoring Panel participants,

already at this point in time, five new thematic fields were derived from the first workshop results and further search

and Infrastructures for Human Living spaces) Productionconsumption 2. 0 Simulation and modelling Time research In order to assess the relevance of all the topics (fields

a nationwide online survey was carried out in September 2008. The results from this survey, expert interviews and a set of criteria were supposed to be inputs to select interesting candidates for BMBF relating to the targets 1) and 2) of the process. 3. 3. The online survey Intentionally

In order to save time, no Delphi survey like in some of the previous German foresight activities was planned 16,17.

The second question was about the time: when do you expect the highest research intensity (in 1 to 5 years, in 6 to 10 years, in 11 to 15 years or in 16 to 20 years.

Additionally, central problems which hamper an intensifying of research could be chosen. Because from the first category list, only one problem could be chosen,

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 For the survey, in September 2008 altogether 19.365 persons from German companies, academia, associations and single persons (consultants or persons

A reminder was sent at the end of September 2008 and the survey was finished on October 22, 2008. The survey was accessed via the code we sent to the participants.

If someone else wanted to participate, it was necessary to contact the project office to receive a new code. 2659 persons filled in one of the questionnaires,

As an incentive, all participants who included their e-mail received the summarised results (beginning of 2009.

On the basis of the survey, topics that will no longer be on the research agenda in 10 years'time,

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 3. 4. Some results In the end, eight new future fields (broader fields) with a different perspective as well as single future topics in all 20

new drivers like lifestyles or developments in society change the time and space patterns of living and working.

Time research: time is the limiting factor in different developments. Therefore, research on time efficiency, parallel structures, a new kind of precise and ultra-short time measuring as well as 4 D precision (for imaging etc.

are some examples. But also the biological rhythms of the human beings (chronobiology) and new knowledge for different applications will be future topics.

When this article is written, most of the results are published not, therefore only the spectrum of the broader fields can be mentioned. 3. 5. Integration

and implementation phase An international workshop at the beginning of October 2008 marked the link to generate ideas for recommendations concerning policies

and research alliances (objectives 3) and 4)) to be elaborated in 2009 9, 10. The workshop took place in Hamburg

or crosscutting topics, along the lines of examples from the past. The guiding questions were therefore:

and topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and longer be rapidly

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 How are organisations or companies in other countries dealing with crosscutting issues and future topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and beyond?

In five parallel working groups, different aspects of research and innovation policy around novel topics will be discussed: Organisation of scientific communities Establishment of research alliances Research programmes and initiatives Innovation policy instruments Ideation A round-table discussion enhanced this discussion

The challenge for the BMBF Foresight process from 2009 onwards was the design of concrete strategies to address some of the topics identified.

These talks and first workshops took place in spring 2009. All of them were tailor-made adapted to the needs of the BMBF departments (as a kind of service)

which described the starting points in the thematic fields as discussed in the first workshop of the process.

in order to inform them about the start of the process and deliver some first preliminary impressions of topics that would be the start of the search phase.

Nevertheless, the process had four different objectives and there are many more impacts and outputs in-between. One impact is by informing BMBF about things to come.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 Reconfiguring the policy system: in a way that makes it more apt to address long-term challenges.

The workshop in autumn 2008 is supposed to directly contribute to the theoretical and case study discussion for the translation of outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy definition and implementation.

In the integration phase of the process in 2009, the embedding is realised step by step. But it is definitely too early in the process to exhaustively evaluate the impacts according to these five dimensions.

and avoid influences on the thematic focus from the beginning. Especially the direct predecessor process Futur 13,14 was promoted directly from the beginning.

It was well-known and therefore, the expectations were very high. The Delphi surveys 16 were known mainly by expert communities who participated because at that point in time

foresight was relatively new for German communities and for the ministry itself. It did not have to fight high expectations

but was promoted by the coming year 2000 and the demand for knowledge about the future.

It was very important to include BMBF from the start but without BMBF advising BMBF.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 divisions (Abteilungen and Referate) and experts in BMBF were organised very cautiously

The information and topics gained in these processes may also be interesting for other actors in the innovation system.

even if there is still enough time to prepare the implementation. This is regarded as one of the add-ons from foresight processes:

to gain time for the preparation of new research. There is already interest from BMBF departments to get involved into the process.

in 2009, general elections will be held in Germany. Until now, all German foresight processes ran into election times 19 which made it difficult to continue with the implementation preparations as intended.

The process is linked not to any particular political goal. The results can be put to use for different strategy building activities on different levels

and from foresight studies 22 27 and took into account knowledge from 15 years of foresight in Germany and internationally 4, 5, 6, 17,21, 28 31.

in order to make use of the strategic intelligence of the innovation system 24,27, 32 but this time very cautiously and step by step.

But this time, even if the large process is acknowledged not after the next general elections in 2009, there is already an impact on some of the ministerial departments.

Nevertheless, the question remains, how this kind of impact can be demonstrated, traced and measured. References 1 Forlearn, http://forlearn. jrc. ec. europa. eu/guide/1 why-foresight/functions. htm, access:

, 2000, pp. 78 92.8 Horizon scan Report, Towards a Future Oriented Policy and Knowledge Agenda, COS, The hague, 2007, www. horizonscan. nl. 9 K. Cuhls

, Seminar Paper Prague 2003, UNIDO, Wien, 2003.12 T. Buzan, B. Buzan, The Mindmap Book, BBC Books, London, 1993.13 H. Banthien, K

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 22 P. Warnke, G. Heimeriks, Technology foresight as innovation policy instrument:

Future-oriented technology analysis, Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008, pp. 71 87.23 F. Scapolo, A l. Porter, New methodological developments in FTA, in:

Future-oriented technology analysis, Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008, pp. 149 162.24 S. Kuhlmann, R. Smits, The rise of Systemic Instruments in Innovation policy, Int. Journal of Foresight

and Innovation policy, vol. 1, 2004, pp. 4 32,2/3. 25 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barré, Future-oriented technology analysis

. 3, 2007, pp. 53 75,1. 27 K. Ducatel A. Tübke, J. Gavigan, P. Moncada-Paterna-Castello, Strategic policy Intelligence:

L. Georghiou (Ed.),The Handbook of Technology foresight, Concepts and Practice, PRIME Series on Research and Innovation policy, 2008, pp. 131 152.29 K. Cuhls, K. Blind, Knut

Improving distributed intelligence in complex innovation systems, Final Report of the Advanced Science & Technology policy Planning Network (ASTPP), Karlsruhe, 1999.

She is a jurist since 2003 in BMBF, and since 2004 in the Department of Research Analysis, Research Communication and Science Coordination.

Walter Ganz is director and member of the Leading Circle of the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering (IAO) in Stuttgart, Germany.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197

ART22.pdf

Scenario planning in public policy: Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors Axel Volkery, Teresa Ribeiro European Environment Agency, Strategic Futures Group, Kongens Nytorv 6, DK 1050

Received 24 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 27 july 2009 Scenario planning has formed a growing area of interest on the interface of academia and public and private sector policy-making.

Over the recent decades, it has formed a growing area of interest on the interface of academia and public and private sector policy-making.

and international organisations 1. Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 This article does not represent any official opinion of the European Environment Agency,

We would also like to thank the participants of the April 2008 BLOSSOM workshop in Copenhagen

and the participants of the 3rd International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis which took place in October 2008 for useful discussions and comments.

not only unfold over several decades, but also cut across spatial scales which are influenced by a myriad of driving forces.

and vice versa 13.1199 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 The limitations of the policy cycle concept have been discussed widely.

budget-or policy-cycle related perspective frequently prevails in this phase, alongside serious time and resource constraints and the need to fix working compromises between conflicting societal interests.

& Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 and organisational performance. To identify relevant literature a number of experts were asked for suggestions.

As part of this analysis we organised a two-day international workshop gathering thirty environmental scenario practitioners from governments

There are also data available on the types of businesses that use scenarios most often large firms in capital-intensive industries with long (greater than 10 years) planning horizons.

since impacts might take a long time to become evident or are difficult to single out from the complexity of influence factors. 3. 2. Impacts of scenario planning The few studies that attempt to evaluate the effectiveness of scenarios find them useful 29,30.

This process requires a longer time perspective. Drawing from the private sector literature, using scenarios to address the challenges facing firms can easily fail for another reason:

The value in close collaboration between scenario 1201 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 developers and users, particularly at the beginning and ending stages of a scenario exercise,

which warned of the dangers of a 9-11-scale terrorist attack, examined 20 scenario studies of U s. national security

requires more time and a greater willingness and patience to engage in creative discussions. These conditions are met oftentimes not in the sphere of policy-making,

triggering a stronger use of deductive approaches that require less time, seem more logical and easier to communicate.

T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 4. Reviewing practitioners'perspectives 4. 1. Relevance

The process of doing so may persuade key decision makers of the need for further action.

and failed to provide knowledge at the time it was needed. Oftentimes, external experts are commissioned by governments and public administration to produce forward-looking analysis,

A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 UK government's strategy on flood and coastal erosion risk management,

T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 made, however, towards getting scenario planning more fully incorporated into processes of policy design, choice and implementation.

In addition, policy-makers and strategists often have not only different time horizons than scenario planners, but also very different attention foci.

where the practice and literature has been flourishing in recent years, but there will also never be a standard approach.

From this point of view, some general rules of 1205 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 conduct can be agreed on,

as in the case of global environmental assessments such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment or the IPCC, work on the systematization of methods

inductive approaches are considered also often to be too time-consuming and ambiguous in their outcomes, highlighting the need for further methodological improvements.

report of the February FAN Club meeting, Prepared for the Horizon scanning Centre, 2008, available at:

http://www. foresight. gov. uk/Horizon%20%Scanning%20centre/Fanclubnews/Feb2008. asp (accessed 7th july 2008.

A Review Of Evaluative Scenario literature, Technical Report 3/2009, Copenhagen, EEA, 2009.3 R. J. Lempert, S. Hoorens, M. Hallsworth, T. Ling, Looking

A Review Of Evaluative Scenario literature, RAND WR-564-EEA, 2008.4 D. Mercer, Robust strategies in a day, Manage.

Decis. 35 (1997) 219 223.5 P. Wack, Scenarios: shooting the rapids, Harvard Bus. Rev. 63 (6 nov./

/Dec.,1985) 139 150.6 T. Henrichs, M. Zurek, B. Eickhout, K. Kok, C. Raudsepp-Hearne, T. Ribeiro, D. van Vuuren

, A. Volkery (in prep. Scenario development and Analysis for Forward-looking Ecosystem Assessments. In: MA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (in prep.

Ecosystems and Human Well-being: A Manual for Assessment Practitioners, forthcoming. 7 B o'Neil, S. Pulver, S. Vandeveer, Y. Garb, Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Lett. 3 (2008) 045012.8 P. Bishop, A. Hines, T. Collins, The current states of scenario development:

an overview of techniques, Foresight 9 (1)( 2007) 5 25.9 R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K. Van der Heijden, The origins

and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures 37 (8)( 2005) 795 812.10 R. J. Lempert, S w. Popper, S. C

. Bankes, Shaping The next One hundred Years: New methods for Quantitative, Longer-Term Policy analysis, 2003, RAND MR-1626-RPC. 11 C. Selin, Trust and illusive force of scenarios, Futures 38 (1

)( 2006) 1 14.12 E. A. Eriksson, M. Weber, Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technol.

Forecast. Soc. Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.13 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro, T. Henrichs, Y. Hoogeveen, Your vision or my model?

Lessons from developing participatory land use scenarios on a European scale, Syst. Pract. Action Res. 21 (6)( 2008) 459 477.14 M. Howlett, M. Ramesh, Studying public policy, Policy Cycles and Policy Subsystems, Oxford university Press, Oxford

, 2005.15 T. R. Dye, Understanding Public policy, Prentice hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1984.1206 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198

1207 16 P. Sabatier, H. J. Jenkins-Smith, The advocacy-coalition-framework. an assessment, in:

P. Sabatier (Ed.),Theories of the Policy Process, Westview Press, Boulder, CO.,1999, pp. 117 166.17 E. A. Parson, V. R. Burkett

J. 14 (1993) 193 213.20 T. J. Chermack, et al. Exploring the relationship between scenario planning and perceptions of learning organization characteristics, Futures 38 (7)( 2006) 767 777.21 Y. Garb, S. Pulver, S. Vandeveer, Scenarios in society

, society in scenarios: towards a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling, Environ. Res.

Lett. 3 (2008) 045015.22 W c. Clark, R. B. Mitchell, D. W. Cash, Evaluating the influence of global environmental assessments, in:

lessons from regional projects, Development 47 (4)( 2004) 62 72.24 M. B. A. van Asselt, Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk:

The Prima Approach to Decision support, Springer, Berlin, 2000.25 United states Commission on National Security in the 21st century, New world Coming:

American Security in the 21st century, Study Addendum, 1999.26 S. A. Van't Klooster, M. B. A. van Asselt, Practicing the scenario axis technique, Futures 38 (1)( 2006) 15 30.27 D. Groves, D. Knopman, R. Lempert, S. Berry,

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