Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 27 july 2009 The democratic deficit (the‘deficit'hereafter) in present institutional Foresight(‘Foresight'hereafter) lies in its participation regime.
and environmentally responsive nano artifacts. 2009 Published by Elsevier Inc. Keywords: Foresight Inclusivity Critical systems Heuristics Nanotechnology 1. Institutional Foresight Institutional Foresight programmes(‘Foresight'hereafter) now occupy a prominent position in the minds of public policy makers.
In the 1990s most of these programmes were driven by the economic mantra of technologically dependent competitiveness and its importance to national economies.
Despite this belief, almost all Foresight implied wider dimensions Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 Corresponding author.
0040-1625/$ see front matter 2009 Published by Elsevier Inc. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.013 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change stretching into social, ecological, political and value matters.
of important influences that may shape the future of research and indirectly society. It is far from clear that the sponsors of Foresight studies,
which has undergone such a marked erosion in recent years with the shift towards a postmodern world 1209 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221-A dissatisfaction
In the 1950s outsiders to whatever policy making processes there were began to reject the notion of infinite plasticity toward the adoption of new technology.
and the quality of life a position supported politically throughout the ensuing 50 years. Formal rejection of the notion of infinite plasticity came in the late 1960s and early 1970s with the growth of technology assessment (TA) and the creation of the Office of Technology assessment (OTA) in the USA,
and the Programme Analysis Unit (PAU) in the UK. In this sense, the issue of inclusivity is not new. 1. 3. Some challenges to Inclusive foresight Creation of trust between all the parties involved is one of the major requirements of an effective Foresight programme, especially between the‘expert'community and the general public,
Box 1) have arisen consistently in recent years and have introduced secrecy and obfuscation by policy makers, providing another incentive for widening the scope and transparency of consultation and participation in Foresight.
great patience and extremely good communication skills will be needed. 1210 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 clime.
O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 2. 3. Coping with social inclusion Wider participation in Foresight faces severe but not insurmountable obstacles.
'In this context, inclusivity needs to create an appreciation of those wider matters that may influence a nation or a region;
Establish a baseline from what has been attempted to make Foresight programmes more inclusive in recent years The policy (or political) requirements:
which ran in Germany from 2001 to 2005, was the biggest departure from convention and was designed to broaden participation through allowing the shape of the study to evolve 2 as participation through the Internet reveals issues of importance.
and society 1212 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 4. Participants from the fields of ethics, theology, social theory
O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 but usually rate themselves as‘familiar,
The notion underlying expert consultation is that the consultors select the consultees according to rules that may
1214 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 Widespread participation Inclusivity explicitly needs widespread participation and, because of the breadth of the behavioural traits
O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 CSH claims to recognise existing inequalities of wealth, status, power, authority, gender, race and sexual orientation
O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 4. 1. 2. Sources of power 4. The management process of Inclusive foresight ought to be open for all to see
a feature pointed out in the 1970s). 11. The design of Inclusive foresight ought to incorporate ways of enabling those affected by its outcome to criticize
23.1217 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 5. Foresight's democratic deficit and nano artifacts The root of Foresight's deficit lies
There are parallels here with the events that surrounded the success of gene-splicing in the early 1970s.
technological feasibility and artifact desirability of a nano artifact. 1218 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 participation in Foresight relating to these issues.
& SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI)) Mitchell's original VALS 1 hierarchy was created at SRI International during the 1970s
VALS is a consumer Fig. 4. Growth of a critical mass favouring public acceptance. 1219 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208
The EUFORIA Project synthesis report, Report to the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living Conditions, Working Conditions and Industrial Relations, October, 2003.2 K. Cuhls, Government foresight activities
The Journal of Futures studies, Strategic thinking and Policy 7 (3)( 2005) 31 47.4 A m. Weinberg, Science and trans science, Minerva 10 (1972) 209 222.5 A. Barker, B
Creating, Using and Manipulating Scientific knowledge for Public policy, Edinburgh University Press, 1993.6 J. Stiles, Neural plasticity and cognitive development, Developmental Neuropsychology 18 (2)( 2000) 237 272.7 D
. Loveridge, Computers and you, Futures 15 (6)( 1983) 498 503.8 E. Powell, Politicians and the future, Futures (1979) 338 341 August 9 A. Giddens, The Consequences of Modernity
, Polity Press, 1990.10 A. Maslow, Motivation and Personality, Harper & Row, NY, 1954.11 D. dubeth, Values and lifestyles, Insight 1 (5)( 1984) 2 11 september
1978 95, Futures 14 (3)( 1982) 205 239 June 13 D. Loveridge, Foresight seven paradoxes, International Journal of Technology management 21 (7/8
)( 2001) 781 791.14 D. Loveridge, Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future, Routledge, NY, 2009.15 H. G. Daellenbach, Systems thinking & Decision making:
of problem-solving systems, Management Science 23 (10)( 1977) 1099 1108.18 W. Ulrich, 1983 Critical Heuristics of Social Planning:
Wiley 1994.19 W. Ulrich, Critical heuristics of social systems design, European Journal of Operational Research 31 (3)( 1987) 276 283.20 M. B. L
The Informed Student Guide to Management Science, Thomson Learning, London, 2002, p. 72.22 W. Ulrich, Systems thinking as if People Mattered:
Critical systems Thinking for Citizens and Managers, Working Paper No. 23,1998. 1220 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 23
Technology and Strategic management 20 (1)( 2008) 29 44 January 24 P. Berg, et al. Potential Biohazards of RECOMBINANT DNA Molecules, Science (1974) 303.
both are at the Manchester Institute of Innovation research at the Manchester Business school, the University of Manchester. 1221 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221
Received 24 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 17 july 2009 Potentially breakthrough science
and how these may co-evolve with each other. This paper presents a research project that took the recent activities in
This involved the inclusion of pre-engagement analysis of potential co-evolutions in the form of scenarios into interactive workshop activities, with the aim of enabling multi-stakeholder anticipation of the complexities of co-evolution. 2009
and risks that may become reality as nanotechnology matures. It is uncertain what sort of sectors will be impacted
Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 Tel.:++33 621 716 728 (mobile. E-mail address:
robinson@emerging technologies. eu. 0040-1625/$ see front matter 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.015 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting
whilst constraining those that may cause harm. But the potential breakthrough nature of nanotechnologies as enablers of radically new applications may mean a complex reconfiguration of the environments that a nanotechnology innovation may traverse during its‘lifetime'from concept to well embedded technology in our society.
and deep case research 4 into scenario narratives which place emphasis on the how paths to the future may unfold
whilst reducing (but not removing) the emphasis on the where the paths will lead to. 1. 2. The why and how of co-evolutionary scenarios In recent years,
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 There is increasing recognition that innovation emergence is a nonlinear process,
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 Sociologically inclined innovation scholars have focused on analysing and prospecting innovation/selection activities, studying open-ended situations of emergence,
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 Fig. 1. Innovation chain+as a mosaic of co-evolving arenas of innovation and selection with innovation journeys showing coupling, shifting,
deadends etc. 1226 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 For structuring the co-evolutionary scenario narratives,
and how the IC+may evolve. Paths to the future do not fall out of the sky,
and thus potentially breaking up existing orders to some extent, subsequent developments create new patterns that may lead to stable situations.
and their internalisation 3. 1. A project is initiated In Autumn 2007 (as still the case 2 years on) there was an increasing emphasis on societal impact and embedment of nanotechnology applications.
but by the end of 2007 they were solidifying into policy and regulation. Thus, there was an occasion to launch a technology assessment exercise,
At the time of the workshop (December 2007) the situation in and around nanotechnology involved mostly the discussion of Environment, Health and Safety aspects (EHS/HES) and other nanotoxicity related discussions,
and the role of technology platforms which came about through institutional entrepreneurship between the framing conditions, the bubbles and the coordinating bodies. 1227 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222
1228 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 Fig. 3. Evolution of governance, 2000 2008.1229 D. K
. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 It is not in the scope of this paper to detail the case history of the emergence of RRI for nanotechnology,
By the end of 2007 a large number of soft law proposals were on the table
In the case of the Frontiers Noe for nanotechnology, the programme involved research and preparation of these scenarios an input to 1-day multi-stakeholder workshops
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 3. 2. The scope of the workshop and the nano context at the time From the situation outlined in Section 3. 1,
production and use of nanoparticles and the consideration of risks of nanotechnology. 10 Fig. 3 visualizes this (up to 2008.
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 These elements provide building blocks to create three scenarios each of them a plausible story about how they might play out (including twists and turns).
By 2012, health care authorities would not certify the approach without clinical testing. This leads to precaution by health insurance companies to cover the procedure.
The further effect is that this medical option becomes available only to those who can obtain it in another way through private clinics. 1232 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009
By mid 2008 the patchwork of codes of conduct, best practices and measures of responsible innovation remains misaligned,
By 2014 the proliferation of nano and its increasing complexity hits home when consumer organisations try to target concerns
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 option emerges but is only available for a limited number of people.
By mid 2008 the regulation void continues and soft law is taken as an interim solution to allow nano to go ahead Observed misalignment:
This was one vision of the future proposed by a number of codes of conduct tabled in the December 2007 EU meeting.
this element linked up with the difference between two regulation reviews in the UK during 2006.
this is a stylised quote announced by a large pharmaceutical company in a meeting in November 2007 on Nanomedicine 38..
the codes are positioned here as useful additions to existing (well regulated) areas like medical devices 6..By the end of 2008 advanced cantilever arrays
(and flourish) to take the university research to the market, 1234 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 with the prospect of takeover by larger firms in 3 to 4
years Aspects of translation through Innovation chain: Innovation journeys shift from gestation period to start-up phase. This section also illustrates techno start-up strategies..
5. 1. 2009 2010 nano development boom The self-imposed standards for manufacture work as a minimum safety requirement,
5. 2. 2011 2012 nanoproducts proliferate The Precautionary principle is promoted within codes but framed by self-assessment mechanisms
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 aimed at temporary governance of developments are expected to reduce pressure on regulators so not supplanting regulation but inhibiting it all the same (regardless of good intentions).
and can be applied in many setting. 5. 3. 2013 house of cards collapses As ever-increasing complexity of nano,
This element of the narrative was inspired by NIOSH 2004 which raised concerns around the manufacturing of nanoparticles.
This example is linked to a presentation given by manufacturing firm in the London meeting November 2007 on Nanomedicine.
5. 4. Total recall By 2014 Nanotech employs approximately 2. 3 million workers globally. Nano has become a many headed hydra
Authorisation and Restriction of Chemical substances (EC 1907/2006) which entered into force on 1 june 2007.
while some nanomaterials will be produced below that level. 1236 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 standards causes complication:
Reference to UK government report of 2012 identifying gaps stimulates finger pointing at regulators for not following up.
Here they show that the patterns that were becoming stabilized by 2007 (identified through exploring endogenous futures) continue to shape development
and interact within multi-stakeholder workshops. 1237 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 The scenarios use endogenous futures,
Change 75 (2008) 517 538.7 A. Rip, J. Schot, Identifying loci for influencing the dynamics of technological development, in:
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18 july September 2006) 411 428 Numbers 3 4,-4. 10 R. van Merkerk, R. E. H. M. Smits, Tailoring CTA
Change 75 (3 march 2008) 312 333.11 P. Larédo, E. Jolivet, E. Shove, S. Raman, A. Rip, E. Moors, B. Poti, G
Ecole des Mines, Project SOE 1981126,'Management tools and a Management framework for Assessing the Potential of Long-term S&t Options to Become Embedded in Society',TSER Programme of the European commission, January 2002.12 A. Rip, Introduction
Manag. 7 (4)( 1995) 417 431.13 A. Rip, A co-evolutionary approach to reflexive governance and its ironies, in:
Manag. 9 (2)( 1997) 131 148.15 H. van den Belt, A. Rip, The Nelson Winter Dosi model and synthetic dye chemistry, in:
Policy 28 (1999) 777 792.17 S. Bakker, H. van Lente, M. Meeus, Arenas of expectations for hydrogen technologies, Innovation studies Utrecht (ISU) Working
Policy 11 (3)( 1982) 147 162.20 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of useful theory of innovation, Res.
Essays on Power, Technology and Domination, Routledge, London, 1991, pp. 132 161.23 B. de Laat, Scripts for the future technological foresight, strategic analysis and socio technical networks:
Policy 31 (6)( 2002) 935 946.25 C. Freeman, C. Perez, Structural crises of adjustment: business cycles and investment behaviour, in:
Rev. 75 (1985) 332 337.27 W. B. Arthur, Positive feedbacks in the economy, Scientific American (February), 1990, pp. 80 85.28 R. Garud, P
Path Dependence and Creation, Lawrence Earlbaum Associates, Mahwah, 2002, p. 138.29 M. Borup, N. Brown, K. Konrad, H. Van Lente, The sociology of expectations
Manag. 18 (2006) 285 298.14 Targeted (and used) for transition policy. 4 15 Used for open-ended roadmapping by technology developers at early stages of development 6. 16 Used for exploring industrial/sectorial alignment/misalignments. 17 See Haico
Delft University (NL) on multilevel analysis of body area networks (to be published in 2010). Also the multilevel approach similar to 2 was used in one of the Frontiers Constructive TA exercises on the drug delivery sector,
33 1238 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 30 A. Rip, R. Kemp, Technological change, in:
Phd Manuscript,(forthcoming Spring 2010. 34 R. van Merkerk, R. E. H. M. Smits, Tailoring CTA for emerging technologies, Technol.
Change 75 (3 march 2008) 312 333.35 A. Rip, M. van Amerom, Emerging de facto Agendas Around Nanotechnology:
Akademische Verlagsanstalt, 2009.37 Mayer Brown, Minutes of Debate on Governance Initiatives for the European Nanotechnology Community in the Public and Private Sectors European commission, Brussels, December 5th 2007.38 Investing
Medical Nanotechnologies II, Royal College of Surgeons, London, UK, Nov 28 29 2007 (www. nano. org. uk). 39 A. Delemarle, D. K. R
technology platforms and institutional entrepreneurship, Paper Presented at the Triple Helix Conference, Turin, May 18 21 2005.40 D. K. R. Robinson, A. Rip, V. Mangematin, Technological agglomeration
Policy 36 (2007) 871 879.41 A. Nordmann, If and then: a critique of speculative nanoethics, Nanoethics 1 (2007) 31 46.
Douglas K. R. Robinson obtained his Undergraduate and Masters degree in Physics and Space science and Technology at the University of Leicester (UK), Universität Siegen (Germany) and International Space University in Strasbourg (France.
Alongside this, he is also a part-time Technical Analyst at the Institute of Nanotechnology (UK) focusing on nanotechnologies in the agrifood sector. 1239 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239
03 december 2014, At: 05:08 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:
12 oct 2009. To cite this article: Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas & Ian Miles (2009) Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 915-916, DOI:
10.1080/09537320903262272 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537320903262272 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
8 november 2009,915 916 EDITORIAL Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making*Most of the papers in this special issue were presented at the Third International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) that took place in October 2008.
ozcan. saritas@mbs. ac. uk ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:
10.1080/09537320903262272 http://www. informaworld. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:08 03 december 2014 916 Editorial authors conclude that the short-term success of the policy impact was at the expense of mediumtt long-term impact
It is worth highlighting that the exercise has identified a competence area linked to the financial and economic crisis of 2008 09,
The above papers, a selected subset representing the themes1 of the 2008 FTA Conference offer a clear insight that smarter policy and corporate decision-making processes are needed to deal with recent crisis and the threat of discruptive changes.
Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas and Ian Miles Note 1. Reflecting the 2008 FTA Conference emphasis on impacts and implications of FTA for policy and decision making
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12 oct 2009. To cite this article: Per Dannemand Andersen & Mads Borup (2009) Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 917-932, DOI:
10.1080/09537320903262280 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537320903262280 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
8 november 2009,917 932 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes Per Dannemand Andersen*and Mads Borup Department of Management Engineering
pean@man. dtu. dk ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:
10.1080/09537320903262280 http://www. informaworld. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 918 P. D. Andersen
Although the use of foresight exercises as a tool has become widespread over the latest 10 15 years
but the area has attracted increased interest in the last 10 or 20 years. However a significant difference between today's knowledge-based economies and the industrial economies of 30 or 50 years ago is that technological development has become crucial for economic development
and for meeting the challenges faced by society, such as those concerning health, energy supply and the environment.
(Gibbons et al. 1994. While Mode 1 research does still exist, Mode 2 research has gained considerable influence in recent years.
We see foresight as a specific type of strategy activity. Foresight is a part of the much larger area of strategy activities in general,
five or maybe eight years ahead and involves only a very limited number of stakeholders.
the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight
and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 919 and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economical and social benefits'(Martin 1995).
which interact in the production, diffusion and use of new and economically useful knowleddge (Lundvall 1992).
and (5) to facilitate the formation of markets (Johnson and Jacobsson 2001. It is acknowledged generally that the theoretical rationale for foresight exercises is supported by the perspective (or school) of evolutionary economics (Georghiou and Keenan 2006.
The rationales and objectives of foresight programmes are of course wider than just deciding how to distribute public funding to R&d,
or around problems (Johnson and Jacobsson 2001). The same type of rationale is used often also for strategy processes in research councils and research programmes.
Examplle of strategy and priority-setting processes in public research can be found from Spain, UK, Norway, The netherlands, France and Denmark in a report from the European project MUSCIPOLI (Siune 2001.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 920 P. D. Andersen and M. Borup 2. 2. Foresight approaches and methods Whereas the rationale for foresight gets its legitimacy from the tradition of evolutionary econoomi foresight,
textbooks on strategy (Grant 1998; Johnson and Scholes 2002. Based on this strategy discipline quite a fewbooks
and journal articles have provided lists of foresight methods and discussed them in light of, for example, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment (Martino 1983;
Millet and Honton 1991. Many of these methods were developed between the 1940s and 1970s, often in the USA and often in affiliation with defence-related analyses or strategic intelligence in large firms.
Furtherrmore several methods assume the relationship between research and innovation to be linear, whereby innovation is thought to be initiated in pure science
and to trickle down through applied research and industrial development, ending up in new products introduced on to the market.
Following foresight exercises in many countries during the 1990s, there now seems to be a new wave of research
and lists of approaches and methood for foresight have been suggested by different authors in review articles on foresight and future-oriented technology assessment methods (Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group 2004).
since the 1960s from the first generation of technology-oriented forecasting to the current third-or fourth-generation activities that also include wider social dimensions (Reger 2001;
Georghiou 2001. A similar evolution has happened in the field of strategy (Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, and Lampel 1998.
Some authors have suggested that foresight has emerged from the convergence of the three disciplines and practices of policy development, strategic planning and futures studies (Gavigan et al. 2001),
but newer approaches do not totally replace older approaches: different approaches to foresight and strategy coexist.
but it seems generally accepted Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight
In the 1990s Henry Mintzberg, in a book and two papers (Mintzberg 1994a c), argued that strategic planning focuses too much on analyses
Mintzberg and colleagues describe 10 schools of thought in strategy formation (Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, and Lampel 1998.
A discussion on this topic can be found in Kaivo-oja 2001. However, foresight seen in the light of three of the traditions are described in the following:(
Also, the definition of foresight given by Martin 1995, cited above, gives probably unintentionally the impression that he understands foresight as a rational-analytical process,
March 1988; March 1994. Traditional alternatives to rational-analytical models of decision processes are political models
and anarchical models (e g. the garbage-can and muddling-through models). To these authors there seems to be a relationship between Martin's definition of foresight
Porter's book from 1980 focused on the strategic management of a firms'external environment and on selecting a strategy to position a firm in the market (Porter 1990.
and Lampel 1998), the premises of foresight are as follows: Foresight is about priority-setting and there exists identifiable positions for research activities.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 922 P. D. Andersen and M. Borup With this understanding of strategy it is logical to use forecasting methods capable of analysing the uncertainties in the future strategic environment.
Mintzberg and colleagues label this‘strategy formulation as a process of negotiation'(Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, and Lampel 1998.
It is based on the knowledge-based view of the firm and on organisational learning (Prahalad and Hamel 1990;
Grant 1991. The resource-based approach does not replace analyses of an organisation's strateggi environment,
knowledge creation and learning naturally come into focus (Nonaka 1994; Nonaka and Takeuchi 1995. In particular, Finnish and other Nordic foresight communities have analysed
and utilised foresight from this perspective (Eerola et al. 2004; Karlsen and Karlsen 2007. In this perspective the premises for foresight might be that:
The focus is less on priority-setting as a result of a foresight process and more on knowledge creation and knowledge sharing by the various actors during the process;
The context for science is that research and technological development are unpredictable; in this sense it is almost a Mode 1 understanding of science and technology;
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 923 Foresight and strategy focus on competencies and visions for defining future development;
but their structure varies significantly (EU DG Research 2005). It is difficult to obtain comparable statistics for research council funding activities on the scale of the European union (EU) or countries of the Organisation for Economic cooperation and Development (OECD). In Denmark,
approximately 20 25%of public research is funded through research councils and national research programmes (Forskningsstyrelsen 2003). Both national research councils and research programmes often channel money to new and important emerging research areas and topics.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 924 P. D. Andersen and M. Borup Since the study was formulated the Danish research sector has changed dramatically.
The research councils were reorganised in early 2005. There is now a clearer distinction between the independeen research council (with five traditional disciplinary councils;
Followiin the change of government in Denmark in late 2001 the energy research programmes were cut by two-thirds in 2002,
but with tighter cooperation with the strategic research council's activitiies Other reforms are expected in coming years as a result of the Government's Strategy for Denmark in the Global economy (The Prime minister's Office 2006).
3. 3. Strategy processes in the Danish technical research council One of the activities of the Danish technical research council over the last 15 20 years has been to develop 5-year strategy plans.
The council's annual contribution to the national budget negotiations, another strategic aspect of its activities, was coordinated with the 5-year plans.
The Danish advisory and funding system for research was subjected to a large reform in January 2004. Following this reform the Technical research Council was merged with another council
To this was added in most years a limited number of special programme appropriations in the national budget,
The latest strategy plan for the Technical research Council was Strategy plan 2003 2007, publisshe in August 2002 (Statens Teknisk-Videnskabelige Forskningsråd 2002.
but quite a few also included thoughts on education and on the potential industrial and societal Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 925 impacts of the suggested research.
In the second phase, during the second half of 2001 the council members described and discussed the different areas of research in science and technology, building on, among other things, the vision papers.
The third phase in the development of the Strategy plan 2003 2007 was more important to the end product than was suggested by the term communication format.
From the beginning of the process it was clear for many of those involved that the Strategy plan would be simpler than the previous 5-year plan (1998 2002),
early in 2002. The Research Agency played, in collaboration with the council, an important role in the definition of this communication format.
Contrary to the earlier 5-year plans, the Strategy plan 2003 2007 was targeted primarily at politicians, with the aim of inspiring them to spend more on science and technology.
and on the different sub-areas of research, the plan for 2003 2007 emphasised the difference that science
the PR company and the authors of the vision papers only a few other persons were involved directly in the development of the Strategy plan 2003 2007.
Itwas not expected that the 2003 2007 planwould have a mediating and coordinating role in the research community or internally within the research council.
In practice, however, there are indications that the Strategy plan 2003 2007 has, at least to some extent, had the effect of coordinating and giving direction to the research community.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 926 P. D. Andersen and M. Borup 3. 4. Strategy processes in the Danish energy research programme The Danish energy research programme is managed by the Danish energy authority,
for example, the general national research strategy developed in the mid-1990s (Miljø-og Energiministeriet 1996a c). Danish energy research experienced considerable turbulence following the change in governnmen in late 2001.
This case study focuses on the round of strategy development in the period after 2001. In this period
Since its establishment in the late 1990s an increasing amount of money has been channelled through this programme. With a budget of around DKK100 million(¤13.4 million) a year (rising to DKK130 million(¤17.4 million) in 2005) it has become the same size as the Energy research programme. 2 The PSO R&d programme supports
R&d on environmentally friendly energy production technologies. The PSO R&d programme was operated by the two electricity grid operators
During the first year of the turbulent period the Advisory Council recommended the drawing-up of a strategy plan,
but the Ministry did not approve this Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 927 suggestion.
it was decided that strategy development from early 2003 should be concentrated on four areas: biomass energy, solar cells, wind energy and fuel cells.
and provided input and background papers to strategy developments (IEA 1999). These committees were closed down. Instead, the core group lead the strategy work in the four areas,
Steps 1 3 were carried out in 2003 and the first half of 2004, whereas the follow-up activities and the roadmaps for some of the areas are being undertaken currently.
The strategy work was used in the funding decisions of the research programmes as early as 2003. In the second half of 2003 and in 2004, two other areas were defined as priorities for strategy development.
First, work on hydrogen technology was initiated, an area with application to research on fuel cells. Second, strategy activities concerning energy-efficient technologies and biofuels were launched by the Danish energy authority.
and decisions Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 928 P. D. Andersen
The Technical research Council plan mentions that its strategy is about prioritising areas of science with special importance for society during the next 10 20 years.
2030 and the Kyoto Protocol's timeframe of 2008 2012. An interesting observation in both the cases analysed is that the members of the core strategy groups are also those responsible for implementing the strategy.
-oriented Technology-oriented and methods Time horizon 10 20 years 2008 2012 and 2030 Method, systematics and tools Invited vision papers Council discussions Council members'own
descriptions of areas of strategy effort Analysis of areas (present state and actor views) Hearings Roadmaps (as follow-up) Duration of the process 15 months Approximately 18 months Legitimization
Actor dialogues, partnershhip consensus seeking Advisory Council for Energy Research Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight
demarcation, e g. against natural science and the natural science research council Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 930 P. D. Andersen and M. Borup 4. Conclusion In contrast to basic funding for universities
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