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ART27.pdf

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1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:

12 oct 2009. To cite this article: Frank Glod, Carlo Duprel & Michael Keenan (2009) Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country:

the case of Luxembourg, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 933-951, DOI: 10.1080/09537320903262298 To link to this article:

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8 november 2009,933 951 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country: the case of Luxembourg Frank Gloda*,Carlo Duprela and Michael Keenanb afonds national de la recherche, 6 rue Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, B

(2006 2007) conducted in one of Europe's smallest and wealthiest countries, Luxembourg. The country's small size brings into sharp viewmany of the underlying tensions present in those foresight exercises that explicitly attempt to set national priorities.

research system 1. Introduction In 2005, Luxembourg began to embark upon a‘national'technology foresight exercise, with the primary aim of identifying newresearch domains for the National research Fund (FNR) to support*Corresponding author.

frank. glod@fnr. lu ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:

10.1080/09537320903262298 http://www. informaworld. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 934 F. Glod et al.

FNR 2006. 1 As with other small countries, Luxembourg has limited public resources devoted to research

and is set to increase budgets further over the next few years. Thus, the challenge for Luxembourg lies not in distributing limited funds among its existing science community.

while a final section draws some summary conclusions and highlights lessons for future foresight practice. 2. STI Policy in Luxembourg Before the 1980s,

These included the founding of Luxinnovation in 1984, an agency for supporting innovation; and the establishment of several public research centres in 1987, with the primary aim of supporting technological innovation in firms.

However, with increased recognition of the role of research and innovation in contributing towards the future development of the country,

the Luxembourg government decided in 1999 to increase the level of publicly funded research. Accordingly, the government went on to develop a focused STI policy,

These developments were followed up in 2003 by the establishment of the University of Luxembourg (UL.

In addition, the government increased spending on publicr&dfrom 0. 08%of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1999 to 0. 3%in 2004 and plans a further increase to 0. 58%by 2010.3 Figure 1

although the level of gross expenditure on r&d (GERD) in Luxembourg at 1. 25%of GDP in 2006 still remains one of the lowest in the Europeea Union (EU). Afuller reviewof the evolution of the Luxembourg research system is offered by Meyer

2008. It is important to understand that the institutional changes and budget increases at the turn of the century represent attempts to shift public research away from a largely‘responsive'and mostly industrially-oriented mode to a more long-term, strategic mode.

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 935 Expenditure on Public research 0 20 000 000 40 000 000 60 000 000 80 000 000 100

000 000 120 000 000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Public research centres FNR UL Figure 1. Public

2000 2007(¤)Source: MCHER). ) Box 1. Parallel strategic initiatives. The OECD Review of Innovation policy was conducted in 2006 and commissioned by the MCHER.

The Review report (see OECD 2007) suggested a number of needed reforms in the system of public sector research governance

in order to better ensure that additional public investment in R&d will yield expected economic and social benefits.

The University of Luxembourg was established in 2003 and implies a shift of paradigm, as it was considered always to be a national strategic advantage that Luxembourg students had to go to foreign countries to study.

This site will accommodate the activities of more than 1600 FTE researchers and aims to house the related research activities of the various research actors in purpose-built infrastructures.

The construction of this new quarter will be finished by 2013 with costs exceeding¤600 million.

The Centre of Competence in Molecular Medicine was launched in 2008 as an initiative of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Health and the MCHER.

Research activities will mainly cover the topic of molecular diagnostics with a 5-year budget of¤140 million.

With an annual budget of 18 million in 2007 the FNR serves as Luxembourg's national funding agency in supporting the development of research competences in topics of national interest Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 936 F. Glod et al. through multi

-annual programmes. It is mandated also to provide advice and suggestions for priority action that should be taken

the strategic research funding agency) level and the operational (research performing institutes) level (OECD 1991). Furthermore, different sorts of things might be prioritissed including scientific fields, industrial areas, research facilities, types of research performing institutes, and so on.

The OECD (1991) has distinguished therefore between thematic priorities concerned with scientific fields, technology areas, industrial sectors, issues,

Keenan 2003 has identified the following‘dilemmas'around the framing and conduct of prioritisation:(1) Scope of prioritisation.

even if revolution might Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science

such as Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 938 F. Glod et al. Luxembourg, where in theory, it is possible to engage almost everyone in the prioritisation proceess Rather,

should somehow be engaged in priority-setting processes. 4. Outline of FNR Foresight FNR Foresight has been delivered as a two phase process (FNR 2006, 2007a,

and Keenan (2006) for a fuller account of the conduct of Phase 1). Based on these results,

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 939 where respondents were asked to rate research domains against a battery of‘attractiveness'and‘feasibility'criteria.

and to remain relevant while pushing at the‘normal'boundaries of debate (Keenan and Miles 2008.

While some of the first generation research programmes (seven programmes were launched in the period 2000 2003) were still ongoing by 2007,

and advice of an international group of eight science policy experts (including one of this paper's authors) through a one day workshop.

which not only provides the budget for the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 940 F. Glod et al.

if their Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 941 research was not to fall under identified research priorities.

Thus, a four-level granularity schema quickly emerged during Phase 1 (FNR 2006) and was applied for‘nesting'research domains in the‘long list'(see Table 1). The FNR was interested most in Level 3 research domains as this was considered the most‘natural'level at which to formulate new FNR programmes.

ICT Infrastructure Telecoms Voip Social & human sciences Economy, policies, institutional framework Economy and finance Dynamics of financial wealth creation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december

2014 942 F. Glod et al. the panels were asked to build a case for the prioritisation of the topic using SWOT analyses

by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 943 so-called‘competence niches'

which was to last about six months and deliver a list of ranked priorities. As we will argue below,

but with so little time to work with, they decided to rely upon a single deliberative forum the Exploratory Workshop (EWS) near the end of the process to validate the domain rankings derived from analysis of the online survey. 12 This was always going to be problematic as it left too much to be achieved in a single one-day

Indeed, it would be fair to say that there was a questionable commitment to a deliberative and discursive Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 944 F. Glod et al. process,

and analysis. Similar shortcomings have also been noted by Meyer 2008 who comments that Luxembourg's‘current science policy appears to be almost too ambitious,..

the existence of one (or few) dominant actors influenced the process right from the outset (Thorsteinsdottir 2000.

contrary to previous findings (Crehan and Cassingena-Harper 2008), this did not make coordination easier in Luxembourg

rational Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 945 manner instead,

'as foresight results rarely‘speak for themselves'(Georghiou and Keenan 2006). 6. 1. Sense-making and the construction of political ownership As the main S&t policy body in Luxembourg,

since the FNR represents only about 20%of the public investment in research Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 946 F. Glod et al.

A first call for project proposals was launched in early 2008, some two years after the initial deadline,

the FNR launched a call for project proposals based on the Foresight results at the beginning of 2008. The FNR received the highest number of proposals (in absolute terms and in relation to the available budget) across all priorities.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the number of proposals in domains newly identified by the Foresight exercise was lower in comparison to the domains where there have been research activities for several years,

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 947 6. 4. Impacts on the private sector It is unclear

Expectations around competence niches Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 948 F. Glod et al. dictated that national priorities had to be fewer in number

or whether the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science

as well as by the OECD (2007), which recommended a clearer distinction between policy formulation (the preserve of the MCHER

Cyprus and Estonia as part of the eforesee project (see Crehan and Cassingena-Harper 2008). Outside of Europe, the Commonwealth Science Council has funded work examining design

and the Seychelles as pilot countries (see Wehrmeyer et al. 2004). 2.‘Competence niches'refer to areas of potential economic success that develop from the establishment of an exceptionally strong knowledge base in a particular domain. 3. As the GDP of Luxembourg has increased by 50%(from¤22 to 33.1 billion) between 2000 and 2006,

these are sizeable budget increases for public research. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 950 F. Glod et al. 4. The use of the term‘in-house'can refer to actors beyond the officials of a ministry

or agency to include expert advisory boards and the like. As such bodies tend to perform important governance functions

and an inappropriate workshop format used (see Glod, Duprel, and Keenan 2006). 13. In fact, interdisciplinarity had been underplayed somewhat throughout the conduct of the exercise.

and J. Cassingena-Harper. 2008. Technology foresight in smaller countries. In The handbook of technology foresight, eds.

FNR. 2006. FNR Foresight Baseline Report. Luxembourg: Fonds National de la Recherche (unpublished. FNR. 2007a.

and M. Keenan. 2006. Evaluating national technology foresight exercises. Technological forecasting and Social Change 73: 761 77.

and M. Keenan. 2006. Luxembourg Foresight a‘standard'exercise in a‘peculiar'setting? Paper presented at the Second FTA Conference, 28 29 september, Sevilla, Spain.

Keenan, M. 2003. Identifying emerging generic technologies at the national level: the UK experience. Journal of Forecasting 22: 129 60.

Keenan, M, . and I. Miles. 2008. Scoping and planning foresight. In The handbook of technology foresight, eds.

L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena. Harper, M. Keenan, I. Miles, and R. Popper, 342 75. Cheltenham:

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 951 Meyer, M. 2008.

The dynamics of science in a small country: the case of Luxembourg. Science and Public policy 35, no. 5: 361 71.

OECD. 1991. Choosing priorities in science and technology. Paris: OECD. OECD. 2007. Reviews of innovation policy:

Luxembourg. Paris: OECD. Thorsteinsdottir, H. 2000. Public sector research in small countries: does size matter? Science and Public policy 27, no. 6: 433 42.

Wehrmeyer, W.,J. Chenoweth, A. Clayton, M. Fernandez-Lopez, and K. Lum. 2004. Foresighting and technology choice in small developing countries.

In Paper presented at the EU US Seminar: New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, 13 14 may, Sevilla, Spain.

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ART28.pdf

This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 05:10 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:

http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis: experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna K. Matthias Weber a, Klaus Kubeczko a, Alexander Kaufmann a & Barbara Grunewald a a Austrian Institute of technology, Department Foresight

12 oct 2009. To cite this article: K. Matthias Weber, Klaus Kubeczko, Alexander Kaufmann & Barbara Grunewald (2009) Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis:

experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 953-969, DOI:

Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www. tandfonline. com/page/termsanndconditions Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Technology analysis & Strategic management Vol. 21

8 november 2009,953 969 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis: experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna K. Matthiasweber*,Klaus Kubeczko, Alexander Kaufmann and Barbara Grunewald Austrian Institute of technology, Department Foresight and Policy development, Vienna

, Austria In 2006 the City ofvienna launched a foresight and strategy process to revisit its urban research and innovation policy.

others are planned to be implemented in the years to Come in spite of this apparent success, a more critical and systematic assessment of the process shows that the apparent short-term success of the process seems to come at the cost of limited medium-to long-term impact, associated with a low degree of novelty and the avoidance of controversy.

policy impact 1. Introduction In 2006, the City of Vienna initiated a far-reaching and open strategy process on the orientation of its future research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy.

matthias. weber@ait. ac. at ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:

10.1080/09537320903262314 http://www. informaworld. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 954 K. M. Weber et al. municipal RTI policy actions until the year 2015.

of which are to be started in 2008. The core process was conducted between autumn 2006 and autumn 2007.

At its end stood indeed a number of concrete measures to be taken, as well as a perspective on future challennge and key areas for action that had been developed in the context of a participatory process.

For that purpose we use an impact assessment framework that has been developed by Havas, Schartinger, and Weber (2007.

given the fact that the process ended only in 2007. However other medium-and longer-term issues can be discussed on the grounds of the process design

In the 1960s, government policies in relation to research and technology had predominantly been inspired by an approach that today is labelled often as‘picking winners':

the late 1970s saw the emergence of a new paradigm in research, technology and then also innovation policies,

but also with the institutional and structural settings of innovation systems (Dosi 1988; Edquist 1997; Freeman 1991,2002;

Fagerberg, Mowery, and Nelson 2005; Smith 2000. In line with these concepts, the 1990s were also characterised by a great reluctance of government policy to prioritise research themes and select technologies in a top down manner.

Since the turn of the millennium we can observe a shift in policy-making practices from shaping framework conditions and structural settings towards strategic decision making:

science, technology and innovation policies give the thematic portfolio of a country or region a greater weight again and pay more attention to long-term perspectives.

However, the growing complexity of innovation processes is recognised also by stressing the bottom up Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 955 component of networking

and clustering as important instruments for enhancing the innovative performance in emerging areas of specialisation (OECD 2002).

Similar to this shift in approaches to innovation processes, there has been a shift in the conceptual understanding of policy processes.

Taking into account insights from strategic planning and complle social systems thinking, policy studies are stressing the growing importance of interactions,

and networked character of political decision making and implementtatio (Smits 2002; Smits and Kuhlmann 2004. Initially, the prevailing technocratic and linear process models of policy making (e g. in terms of formulation implementation evaluatiio phases) were replaced by cycle models,

where evaluations are supposed to feed back into the policy formation and implementation phases. Already in these cycle models, policy learning is seen as an essential ingredient of political governance.

However, in viewof the complexity and the ever-changing character of the object of policy which strongly applies in the case of innovation policy it is recognised now widely that there is neither a clear-cut recipe for nor an overarching theory of policy making (OECD 2005.

From a different angle, we should acknowledge a fervent need for continuous adaptation and readjustment of policies and related instruments (Carlsson, Elg, and Jacobsson 2006.

The concept of distributed policy making and intelligence (Kuhlmann 2001; Smith 2002) draws our attention to various policy practices relying extensively on the knowledge, experience and competence of the different stakeholders concerned.

From this network perspective, policy making is not just about government, but about the joint impact of public and private decision making on society's course of change and the interactions that precede formal decision making.

This is also reflected in the EC's White paper on Governance (EC 2001) which stresses five principles of good governance:

Examples are‘Adaptive foresight'(Eriksson andweber 2008) and‘Sustainability foresight'(Truffer, Voss, and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 956 K. M. Weber et al.

Konrad 2008. This interest is fuelled by the recognition that there is a‘translation problem'appareen in foresight approaches that predominantly rely on broad participatory processes, namely the translation of shared collective problem perceptions and visions into actual decisions of individuua actors and organisations.

From this perspective, foresight can be interpreted as an integral element of networked and distributed policy making by providing three crucial functions (Da Costa et al. 2008;

Eriksson and Weber 2008; Weber 2006) which in line with the networktyyp distributed model of policy-making processes are provided simultaneously rather than in distinct phases:(

1) Policy informing by generating consolidated findings concerning the dynamics of change, future challenges and options and transmitting it to policy makers as an input into policy conceptualisation and design.

This function is an important motivation for policy makers to initiate a foresight programme in the first place. 2) Policy strategic counselling by merging the insights generated in the context of policy informiin foresight activities with perspectives on the strategic positioning

Vienna already launched an active RTI policy in the early 1990s; almost twenty years later the city is confronted with the necessity to revisit its RTI policy landscape.

At the same time, new challenges were identified that have to be tackled in order to keep pace with the international developments in science, technology and innovation,

In 2006 it was decided therefore to initiate a process of strategic dialogue, bringing the growing number of diverse actors together in an open and self-critical debate.

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 957 Table 1. A Framework to classify the impacts of foresight activities.

ARC systems research, building on Cassingena Harper and Georghiou (2005), PREST (2006) and Forsociety (2007.

when there was not even a first discussion Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 958 K. M. Weber et al. about setting up a broader participatory process on research

In fact, when the research programme was started at the end of 2004, the suggestion of launching a participatory foresight process as part of the research programme was rejected by the representatives of the City of Vienna in the management team of the programme.

The preliminary results from the various analyses from different perspectives were brought together during a forward-looking integration phase in spring 2006,

The essence of these four scenarios is captured in their titles (Weber et al. 2007: Innovative niches:

the main phase of the project‘Wien denkt Zukunft'started in November 2006 with a major kickoff event attended by over 500 participants.

'Over the following 12 months, a broad participative debate on RTI policy strategies for the city was conducted.

and vision for municipal RTI policiie by both identifying areas for action and implementing adequate policy measures until the year 2015.

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 959 Panel 1 FTI in business Integrative concept for RTI-strategy Panel

academia and business and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 960 K. M. Weber et al. several hundred participants.

and each panel met between three and five times over the following months. While the opening session was mainly presenting the intentions and the working mode of the initiative,

Exactly one year after the kickoff event the RTI-strategy of the City of Vienna was presented to an equally large audience of several hundred participants, backed by the mayor, city councillors and key stakeholders.

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 961 4. Objectives,

which should be achieved by 2015 (City of Vienna 2007a):(1) Increase Vienna's research expenditures to 4%of the gross city product;(

6) Rate of female researchers in the business sector is to increase by 100 per cent. 4. 2. Five main challenges A cross-panel analysis revealed five main challenges that would need to be tackled until 2015

with a special Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 962 K. M. Weber et al.

In this context, Vienna's network-based location of research and innovation will be strengthened further. 4. 4. Implementation the schedule for 2008 and beyond Based on the objectives,

'and are likely to be implemented in the first 2 3 years after the end of the strategy process (see Figure 2). For the year 2008 the initial three projects have been endowed with approximately¤14 million:(

(1 Under the title of a‘Keynote Programme'for the specific fields of research in the humanities, the social and cultural sciences (on the side of the already well established programmes for Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs

A first call in this new area was launched in the first half of 2008, focusing on Arts&sciences.

A first event will take place in autumn 2008. 3) In revising the City of Vienna business promotion principles‘ZIT 08plus'more attention will be given to crosscutting issues of RTI policies,

The newbusiness promotion principles were introduced at the beginning of 2008 already. Other kickoff projects as well as further initiatives are planned to be launched from 2009 onwards.

In fact, in response to the economic crisis in early 2009, the City of Vienna decided to spend an additional¤60 million on research infrastructures and cutting-edge research as part of a broader economic and employment stimulus package.

Two of the remaining three kickoff projects (promottio of junior groups and top locations for cutting-edge research) will be financed from this additional source of funding.

and the benefits Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 964 K. M. Weber et al. of

medium-term impacts While it may be too early to assess the sustainability of the medium-term impacts that have become apparent 18 months after the end of the process,

it will be one of the great challenges of the following years whether at least some of the participatory elements and coordination processes among municipal departments can be established on a permanent basis. Monitoring the implementation of the strategy is planned to be an element of this,

and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 965 boundary-crossing initiatives are difficult to realise.

Its implementation has been accelerated by the economic crisis in 2008/2009 that has led to an increase in funding for RTI as part of city's economic

Overall, some elements of the strategy have been defined in such a way that the momentum will be kept for at least the next two or three years.

Although the foresight process was targeting the time horizon 2015 (and in some instances even beyond),

and the restrictions on the time horizon implied Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 966 K. M. Weber et al. that some longer-term issues tended to be excluded

Giving an assessment of longer-term impacts is difficult after just a year since the completion of the process.

and thus to the consideration of alternative futures had been addressed in the forward-looking part Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 967 of the preceding research programme on the Viennese innovation system,

He has been working for many years as scientist and policy advisor on matters of RTI policy, at regional, national as well as at European level.

Between 2006 and 2008 hewas leading a research programme on regional innovation patterns and policy in cooperation with the City of Vienna.

Barbara Grunewald has been Research Associate at Austrian Institute of technology (AIT) in the Department of Foresight & Policy development since 2005.

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 968 K. M. Weber et al. Notes 1. This section draws largely on Havas, Schartinger, andweber (2007.

2. Obviously, there are also certain types of foresight exercises that have a less pro-active intention by concentrating on the identification of future challenges

and Weber (2006) and in particular the work on self-evaluation tools for foresight in the context of the Forsociety ERA NET (Forsociety 2007).

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. and S. Kuhlmann. 2004. The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1, nos. 1/2: 4 32.

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www. innovationspolitik-wien. at Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014

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