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12 oct 2009. To cite this article: Stefanie Jenssen (2009) Foresight and governance: how good can it get?

The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 971-986, DOI:

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8 november 2009,971 986 Foresight and governance: how good can it get? The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project Stefanie Jenssen*Centre for technology, innovation and culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway The article addresses the theme of foresight and equality in the area of stakeholder participation

Drawing on fieldwork studies of a Norwegian municipal vision project conducted in 2006 it is shown how a specific image of young people was constructed

stefanie. jenssen@tik. uio. no ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:

10.1080/09537320903262397 http://www. informaworld. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 972 S. Jenssen multi-stakeholder dialogue

and strategic decisions. 3 In their seminal paper on‘Inclusive foresight'Loveridge and Street (2005) argue that the credibiilit of foresight is dependent on extending participation to social stakeholders, especially those not normally seeking participation themselves.

or a political entity with predefined power or influennc in the project but young people between 14 and 19 years of age.

However, similar to Fombrun's (1996) definition‘image'is here related to seemingly inherent characteristics, including socioeconomic,

Relevance of case study What picture do we have of young people between 14 and 19 years of age?

In regard to foresight Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Foresight and governance: how good can it get?

Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS)( 2005 7)‘ a vision is imagined an representation or a shared picture of the (usually desired future'.

and exploring the future in different scenarios (Godet 2001). In the literature on municipal planning, visioning is regarded as a separate method,

2004,195) there was virtually no mentioning of visioning as a collective activity within the planning profession before 1990.

Scholars of science and technology studies (STS) have called attention Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 974 S. Jenssen to the specific qualities of foresight

arguing that its practices point to certain ways of framing and rationalising the future (Rappert 1999.

however, have questioned the direct influence of scientific expectatiion and technological promises on strategic development of organisations (Sanz-Menéndez and Cabello 2000;

Burt 2007. They have studied foresight in the context of organisational identittie and the ways individuals fulfil identities

and follow rules and procedures (Bood 2002). Schwandt and Gorman (2004) argue that organisations do not necessarily follow a straight and rational logic of techno-scientific expectations and promises.

Building on these arguments Jenssen (2007) advocates a more cautious approach to the importance of foresight as a strateggi tool for policy

and decision-making by emphasising the complexity of organising and organisations. Thirdly, this discussion of stakeholder image construction in foresight is inspired by issues of reflexivity in social theory (Giddens 1991;

Beck, Bonss, and Lau 2003; Lash 2003; Latour 2003), as a form of governance (Wynne 2002;

Grunwald 2004; Cunliffe 2005; Konrad and Voß 2006) in designing foresight processes and adaptive planning (Grin, Felix, and Bos 2004;

Weber 2006) and as a critical tool in qualitative research (Lynch 2000; Colombo 2003; Cañellas-Boltà and Strand 2006.

Reflexivity is a broad concept, with roots in philosophical, literary and social as well as natural science discourses.

In the context of future orientation, reflexivity has evolved from an understanndin of human practice as described by Garfinkel (1967) via a social theory of modernity introduced by among others Giddens (1991) and Beck, Bonss,

and Lau (2003), towards a new understanding of foresight methodology and practice (Fuller and De Smedt 2008).

Most literature today sees reflexivity as a positive value in itself, a practice to aspire to

and to be followed by social institutions. Beck, Bonss, and Lau (2003,2) refer to‘reflexive social institutions'as central agents charged with the responsibility to make‘reasonable decisions about the future...

in a world that is, in some respects, literally boundless'.'Foresight is thus a coordinated response to uncertainty and risk.

Giddens (1991,29) argues that the‘popularity of futurology in the system of high modernity is not an eccentric preoccupation...

but signals a recognition that the consideraatio of counterfactual possibilities is intrinsic to reflexivity in the context of risk assessment and evaluation'.

'Foresight is thus an expression of the constant self-monitoring of social institutions, their ability to address present

and future issues and to act responsibly in a changing environment. Less attention, however, is given to the paradoxical aspects of reflexive knowledge in its relation to expectations and the organisation of the future.

Therefore we need a broader understanding of reflexivity Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Foresight and governance:

and to collect‘relevant ethnographic moments'(Van't Klooster and Van Asselt 2006) during the 7-month project period.

which were‘indicative of dissonance'(Herzfeld 1997) and highlighted‘contesting values or problematic social changes of some kind'(O'connor 2004).

This article is based on the collection of specific moments in which the idea of assumed shared values collided with the ideal of community engagement. 9 The following discussion of how an image of schoolchildren as stakeholders

and limits of inclusive foresight in municipal planning processes and expounds the challenges of our contemporary understanding of communicative planning tools as power instruments (Pløger 2002).

In September 2005, the municipal administration conducted a survey measuring their inhabitants'satisfaction with the community services provided.

except for one group of inhabitants, young people between 14 and 19 years of age. According to the survey this social group was satisfied least with communal offers for social and cultural engagement.

‘All pupils and students in secondary schools and colleges should be invited to participate in a vision project organised by the municipality to create a desired picture of their community in 2020'.

'Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 976 S. Jenssen Figure 1. The future picture of Lundal was situated clearly within the possible and desirable.

From power point presentation by project leadership, March 2006. The visioning project was organised by a project group consisting of one of Lundal's municipal administration employees

The resulting visions were planned to be revised part of the municipal long-term plan regarding social development of the community (2006 2020.

The process of the visioning project was defined also as being guided by Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Foresight and governance:

and giving priority to their ideas about Lundal's future was expressed by the community council in September 2005:‘

To avoid political discussions about unrealistic use of municipal areas resulting from the young Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 978 S. Jenssen Figure 2. Illustration by German cartoonist

Power point presentation, March 2006. people's suggestions, they were asked to focus on the‘well-being of citizens and on ideas about

They were asked to use their estimated age of about 30 years in 2020 as a starting point for their visionary ideas. 14

which would show desired descriptions of Lundal in 2020. These future pictures were to be written using expected trends in municipal developmmen coupled with the young people's ideas.

The municipal project leader ordered the ideas collected from the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Foresight and governance:

979 Figure 3. The design of the municipal vision project according to the project group, February 2006. schools systematically and created three future pictures,

or agree Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 980 S. Jenssen on a desired vision, for instance upcoming municipal elections.

'18 In the case of the Lundal vision project, long-term social planningwas intended to be influenced by young people between 14 and 19 years of age.

defining them as non-experts (Cañellas-Boltà and Strand 2006), or they should be able to influence the activities of an organisation.

The participation of young people as stakeholders in the vision project is an example of a wider legitimation movement that does not base stakeholder participation on authority but on authenticity (Brown and Michael 2002.

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Foresight and governance: how good can it get?

Areas Pre-definitions as stakeholders Preconditions for their contributions as participants Cognitive Young people are the future Imagine yourselves as grown-ups in 2020!

This case illustrates thus not only challenges of inclusive foresight taken up by Loveridge and Street (2005) but also much wider problems regarding good governance

Pløger 2001. 21 They argue that one of the problems municipal planning is confronted with is assumed the frequently existence of universal values

The case discussed here illustrates Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 982 S. Jenssen that power in such processes is both hierarchical and relational, yet‘not simply a relationship between partners, individual or collective;

as steering and decision-shaping and of politics as decision-making (Johnston 2002). Foresight as well as governance is seen often as consisting of networking

but helps identifying power structures related to government (Stoker 1998). However, since foresight methods and practices are always part of an organisational setting, local, sectorial, regional or otherwise,

‘Most OECD member Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Foresight and governance:

'2. See Cuhls (2003), Cuhls and Georghiou (2004), Rask (2008), Van't Klooster and Van Asselt (2006).

3. About the relationship between foresight and decision making see Brown et al. 1999), Ringland (2002), Brown, Rappert, andwebster (2000), Böhle (2003), Genus (2006), Georghiou (2001), Johnston (2001), Berkhout and Hertin (2002.

4. In scenario planning a set of alternative scenarios are created to achieve an understanding of the range of possible future developments, more or less regardless of

For more insight into scenarios and visions work, see Van Notten (2005) and Gertler and Wolfe (2004.

2003). ) 5. On visioning in municipal planning, see Shipley and Newkirk (1999), Shipley (2002), Shipley et al.

2004). ) 6. Slaughter (2004,92 4) sees the development of Critical Future Studies (CFS) following the traditions of STS in‘challenging the inevitability

and the taken-for-grantedness of the familiar, as well as of the novel and the new'.

but also by economics, innovation studies, organisational studies, linguistics and semiotics, see Van Lente (1993), Brown, Rappert, andwebster (2000), Brown and Michael (2003), Borup et al.

2006). ) 8. The term‘expectational reflexivity'covers those simultaneously enabling and constraining situations in which collecctiv expectations are predefined by governmental actors who need to establish future visions firmly within the frame of existing governmental structures.

The notions of active citizenship and community involvement have become increasingly promineen in political discussions and policy practices within planning and future oriented governance (Stukas and Dunlap 2002;

Marinetto 2003. 10. The informants involved in the visions project requested to keep their municipality's identity unrevealed.

Proposal sent by Lundal's head of administration to the community council, September 2005, p. 7. 12.

March 2006 italics added. 13. Invitation sent by Lundal's head of schools to all secondary schools and colleges,

February 2006 italics added. 14. From Invitation. 15. Interview with vision project leader, April 2006. All interviews were conducted in confidentiality,

and the names of interviewees are withheld by mutual agreement. 16. Interview with vision project leader April 2006.17.

Interview with vision project leader, June 2006.18. In this respect, foresight practises and guidance literature interact with research areas of science and technology studies (STS), especially regarding insights about the relationships between‘given facts and future values'.

'As Brown (2005,331) writes:‘‘in a wide range of contexts, present day evidences, proofs, facts or truths are giving way to future-oriented abstractions premised on desire,

imagination and the will to the yet not present'.'19. According to The United nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP 2009) good governance has eight major characteristics.

It is oriented participatory, consensus, accountable, transparent, responsive, effective and efficient, equitable and inclusive and follows the rule of law.

Local newspaper article, 5 april 2006.21. See also Flyvbjerg (1998. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 984 S. Jenssen 22.

Theorist of urban planning Huw Thomas takes a pragmatic position when discussing the relationship of planning, power and values:‘

‘when we do good we use power. When we help some we exclude others'(Thomas 1994,217.

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ART3.pdf

QTIP: Quick technology intelligence processes Alan L. Porter*,1 R&d, Search Technology, Inc.,4960 Peachtree Industrial Blvd.

Suite 230, Norcross, GA, 30071, USA Received 13 may 2004; received in revised form 11 october 2004;

accepted 18 october 2004 Abstract Empirical technology analyses need not take months; they can be done in minutes.

One can thereby take advantage of wide availability of rich science and technology publication and patent abstract databases to better inform technology management.

We traditionally perceived the answer calibrated in months, particularly for empirical technology analyses. This mindset contributes to many technology management

and co-directs the Technology policy & Assessment Center there//tpac. gatech. edu. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081

The time to conduct certain technology analyses can be reduced from months to minutes by taking advantage of four factors enabling QTIP Quick Technology intelligence Processes:

But, even more importantly, it familiarizes users with data-based technology analyses The manager who gets the prescribed FTA A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1071 outputs upon

Instead it derives from analytical work that has been ongoing for 2 years as illustrative material for a book 1. But,

indeed, be done in a day. Fuel cells are the example technology. They convert hydrogen and oxygen into water, producing electricity and heat in the process.

A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1072 Innovation indicators are rooted empirical measures in models of how technological innovation proceeds.

A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1073 Whatever the route the key is that,

A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1074! The SOFC topic map (upper right, based on factor analysis of keywords appearing in multiple papers) shows an intriguing bcluster of clustersq in the upper region.

o several terms appear for the first time in the most recent year's publications we could use these to stimulate discussion with our subject experts,

**Nano-surfaces & rare-earth materials 0 50 100 150 200 250 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

1999 2000 2001 2002 Priority Patents Family Member Patents Factor Map keywords-combo (Cleaned)( tec..

AIR FUEL CELL X-ray photoelectron spectra SURFACE ORGANOMETALLIC CHEMISTRY impedance spectroscopy (IS platinum alloys electrooxidation electric impedance measurement 1988 1989 1990 1991

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 nano-combo methanol stuff Map:

Nano-surfaces & rare-earth materials*Activity--%during the last 3 years: 261 articles 44%last 3 years 72 priority patents 14%last 3 years 133 family patents 32%last 3 years*Conference/Journal Ratio:

10%vs. 29%for SOFC*New Terms include: chemisorption, free energy, isotope effects, glass-ceramics, surface segregation & diffusion*Patenting:

A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1075 o three companies each show 7

U s. Patents (select) Citation Tree Heat Resistant Steel 2001 Elec Interconnect for a planar fuel cell-2001 Fuel cell Interconnect Device-1999 Sumitomo Disc brakes Sarnoff SOFC

CHANAUD P Badwal AHMED K 012345678 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Company Patenting Trend Who uses their patents?

A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1076! Within the Scorecard, the Capabilities Spectrum synthesizes information to draw implications regarding this company's relative strengths.!

We know of a major corporation that reduced its time to provide a key set of competitive technological intelligence (CTI) analyses from 3 months to 3 days.

A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1077 bprocess managementq factors should be considered for all types of QTIP players:!

& Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1078 miningq exploits the information compiled by S&t and other (e g.,

it will take two semesters to completeq. Instead, the quick mindset has the user set the defining temporal parameter the deadline then we technology analysts fit into that schedule.

We decide to focus on the last 5 years. He wants 3 Powerpoint slides like those we used last month in a similar benchmarking exercise.!

8: 05 am: I finish a quick Dialog bdialindexq search that identifies which databases contain the most SOFC information.

A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1079! 8: 40 am: I search a compilation of Georgia Tech publication records to augment the VP's awareness of who is active in fuel cells.

I undertake the dfinalt searches in SCI and EI Compendex and download hundreds of SOFC records for the most recent 5 years.!

A comparative 5-year trend script is run. Results are pasted from MS Excel into MS Powerpoint bgt Benchmarkingq slide templates.!

A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1080 But it is worth the effort.

Exploiting New technologies for Competitive advantage, Wiley, New york, 2005.2 T. Teichert, M.-A. Mittermayer, Text mining for technology monitoring, IEEE IEMC 2002 (2002) 596 601.3 R

. J. Watts, A l. Porter, Innovation forecasting, Technological forecasting and Social Change 56 (1997) 25 47.4 N c. Newman, A l. Porter, J. Yang, Information professionals:

changing tools, changing roles, Information Outlook 5 (3)( 2001) 24 30.5 A l. Porter, A. Kongthon, J.-C. Lu, Research profiling:

improving the literature review, Scientometrics 53 (2002) 351 370.6 K. Bo rner, C. Chen, K. W. Boyack, Visualizing knowledge domains, Annual Review of Information science and Technology 37 (2003) 179 255.7 A l. Porter, E. Yglesias, A. Kongthon, C. Courseault, N c. Newman, Getting

What You Need from Technology information Products, Research-Technology management, 2004 (Nov 8 H. de Bruijn, A l. Porter, The education of a technology policy analyst-to process management, Technology analysis and Strategic management 16 (2)( 2004

) 261 274.9 H. Ernst, Patent information for strategic technology management, World Patent Information 25 (3)( 2003) 233 242.10 A. Kontostathis,

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