years

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Envisioning structural transformation lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation Elna Schirrmeister, Philine Warnke Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany a r t

Received 14 may 2011 Revised 25 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 2 november 2012 The paper aims to contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations.

and potential structural transformation of innovation processes. 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. Keywords: Vision Structural transformation Inductive approach Foresight methodology Innovation pattern Visualisation Scenarios Weak signals 1. Introduction Envisioning structural transformation in foresight exercises is challenging.

Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Corresponding author. E-mail address: Elna. Schirrmeister@isi. fraunhofer. de (E. Schirrmeister.

0040-1625/$ see front matter 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.10.008 Contents lists available at Sciverse Sciencedirect Technological forecasting

It was carried out between 2009 and 2012 by the Austrian Institute of technology AIT (Austria), Fraunhofer ISI (Germany), Z punkt (Germany) and Solutioning Design Scenarios SDS (Belgium.

whereas an intuitive approach without any software support has been practiced for many years in the US 17.

Both these 1 www. innovation-futures. org. 454 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 approaches can be termed inductive

In the past years approaches have been developed to integrate disruptive events into scenario building in the form of wildcards 20.

which was scanned then systematically back to the year 2007 by the project teammembers, who acted as signal scouts in this phase of the project.

80 (2013) 453 466 Transfers to other sectors, to other user groups...e g. from fashion to furniture industry;

web-extracted innovation. 456 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Fig. 3. Screenshot from the INFU web-based

survey. 457 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Fig. 4. Visualisation of all INFU visions. 458 E. Schirrmeister,

P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 2. 2. Visual inspiration The INFU amplifications were illustrated in a visual,

P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 without any rootwithin phenomena that can be observed today 25,26.

P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 the scenario building activity is looking for a consensus building process among the participants

& Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 mini panels were the emergence of more active roles for users and citizens

and use phases. 462 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 (2) Participation:

Fig. 9. Element from INFU mini panel Participatory Innovation. 463 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466

P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 dominance of the macro-level and the influence of today's perception of consistency were reduced to give room for creative assessment of structural transformation.

ISPIM conference Hamburg, 17 20th of June 2011, Lift conference Marseilles 2/3 july 2011 (INFU workshop), FTA conference Sevilla 2011,

and R&d Management Conference Manchester 2nd of June 2010 (INFU workshop). 465 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 References 1 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C

. Cagnin, F. Scapolo, The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Tech. Anal.

Manag. 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.2 R. Miller, Futures literacy: a hybrid strategic scenario method, Futures 39 (4)( 2007) 341 362.3 European commission, Communication from the Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions

Europe 2020, Flagship Initiative Innovation Union, Brussels, 2010.4 P. Warnke, Implementing transformative innovation policy priorities, in:

JRC-IPTS (Ed.),The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), Book of Abstracts, Sevilla, 2011.5 P.-B. Joly, A. Rip, M. Callon, Reinventing innovation, in:

Firms, Clusters and Institutions in a Changing Setting, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2010, pp. 19 32.6 F. Steward, Breaking the boundaries, Transformative Innovation for the Global Good, NESTA, 2008.7

Chang. 78 (1)( 2011) 90 102.8 R. Bleischwitz, B. Bahn-Walkowiak, W. Irrek, P. Schepelmann, F. Schmidt-Bleek, et al.

critical success factors for the 1990's, R&d Manag. 22 (3)( 1992) 221 239.11 W c. Kim, R. Mauborgne, Strategy, value innovation,

Rev. 78 (September October 1999) 129 141.12 I. Miles, Innovation In services, Oxford university Press, New york, 2005.13 G. Mulgan, R. Ali, R. Halkett

Stud. 11 (2)( 2006) 61 74.21 T. Postma, F. Liebl, How to improve scenario analysis as strategic management tool?

Chang. 72 (2005) 161 173.22 E. Hiltunen, The future sign and its three dimensions, Futures 40 (3)( 2008) 247 260.23 F. Jégou, K

Sustainable Everyday, Scenarios of Urban Life, 2003, pp. 246 255.26 F. Jégou, S. Vincent, Co-design approaches for early phases of augmented environments, in:

Transitionspfade der Nutzerintegration Erkenntnisse aus einem Vorausschau Prozess, Vorausschau und Technologieplanung, W v. Westfalia Druck Gmbh, Paderborn, 2008, pp. 321 340.28

Operations research Proceedings 2005, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2005, pp. 741 746.29 P. Warnke, E. Schirrmeister, INFU scenario assessment report (deliverable D

Ansoff Today, Futures 44 (2012) 198 205.32 B. Ralston, W. Ralston, The Scenario planning Handbook: A Practitioner's Guide to Developing and Using Scenarios to Direct Strategy in Today's Uncertain Times, Thomson Southwestern, Mason, Ohio, 2006.33 J. Buur, B. Matthews, Participatory innovation, Int

Manag. 12 (3)( 2008) 255 273.34 J. Grin, J. Rotmans, J. Schot, Transitions to sustainable development, New Directions in the Study of Long term Transformative Change, Routledge

combining insights from innovation systems and multilevel perspective in a comprehensive‘failures'framework, Research policy 41 (2012) 1037 1042.

Elna Schirrmeister is a senior researcher and project manager at Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research since 1999.

She has been Deputy Head of the Competence Center Innovation and Technology management and Foresight between 2009 and 2011.

In the past ten years she has worked on Foresight at Fraunhofer ISI and at the European commission's institute for prospective technological studies JRC-IPTS.

Her research focuses on Foresight methodology and the mutual shaping of technology and society. 466 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466

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Received 25 june 2012 Accepted 17 august 2012 Available online 3 november 2012 Drawing upon the presentations made at the fourth conference on Future-oriented technology analysis,

Since the 1990s Nokia would have been on any list of European industrial success stories as it rose to global leadership in themobile telephony sector.

transformations and disruptive change while references to adaptation and alignment hinted at strategies for coping Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 Corresponding author at:

Donald Rumsfeld made to the Press in 2002 T here are known knowns; there are things we know we know.

J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 and more an input into understanding what its transformative implications might be.

plank of the new core programme Horizon 2020 11. The tendency is also visible in the United states where the White house Office of Science

J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 but may not be desirable to achieve.

The next two or three years promise to be a critical period for the challenged practices of FTA,

Towards integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303 2004.2 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU US

Chang. 72 (2005) 1059 1063.3 F. Scapolo, A. Porter, M. Rader, Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technol.

Forecast. Soc. Chang. 75 (2008)( 2008) 457 461.4 In: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barré (Eds.

Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008.5 J. Cassingena Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technol.

Manage. 20 (3)( 2008) 267 269.6 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, F. Scapolo, From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis, Futures 43 (3

)( 2011) 229 231.7 A. Geim, Curiosity-driven science: philanthropy or economic necessity, in: Plenary Address to European commission Innovation Convention, 2011.8 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper and F. Scapolo op cit. 9 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper

foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy, Futures 43 (3)( 2011) 243 251.10 L. Georghiou, Europe's research system must change, Nature 452 (2008) 935

936.11 European commission, Communication from The Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic And Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Horizon 2020 The Framework programme for Research and Innovation, Brussels, 30.11.2011 COM

(2011) 808 final, 2011 12 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Sci.

Public policy 39 (2)( 2012) 140 152.13 A. Schoen T. Konnola, P. Warnke, R. Barré, S. Kuhlmann, Tailoring foresight to field specificities, Futures 43 (April 3 2011) 232 242.14 M. Weber

, J. Cassingena Harper, T. Konnola, V. Carabias Barcelo, Building FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations:

Public policy 39 (2)( 2012) 153 165.15 K. Haegeman, F. Scapolo, A. Ricci, E. Marinelli, A. Sokolov, premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS

, Technological forecasting and Social Change 80 (3)( 2013) 386 397. Luke Georghiou is Professor of Science and Technology policy and Management in the Manchester Institute of Innovation research at Manchester Business school.

and R&i policy at the European and international level, serving on a number of EU expert groups. 470 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467

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In this case, the window on the state of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is provided by a conference held in 2011 in Seville, at the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European commission's Joint research Centre.

This was the fourth in the FTA series that started in 2004 and was held again in 2006 and 2008.

These conferences, organized by IPTS, aimed to bring together academics, practitioners, and policy makers from across Europe and around the world to discuss FTA.

The 2011 conference focused on an important topic, the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in response to grand societal challenges.

and discussed at the 2011 FTA Conferences. Papers that overall covered a wide range of points-of-view

Again the authors take a more empirical or applied approach, by focusing on a particular case study, the‘‘Intelligent Manufacturing Systems 2020''project.

The Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jou r nal h o mep ag e:

w ww. elsevier. co m/loc ate/fu tu r es 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

and practice that made up the 2011 FTA conversation in the light of subsequent developments.

Furthermore, the editors of this Special issue, each from their own vantage point, have been following the evolution of the disparate fields brought together by FTA over the years.

For instance, in 2008 one of the conclusions noted the‘‘.‘‘constant tension between foresight and FTA, with conflicting views on which is a subset of the other.''

and ending up with a version of the expert's best guess regarding the best bet for winning the industrial or technological race ten or so years on.

like in 2004, that they were not being taken seriously by policy makers. Or that the reality of technological and societal interaction was being simplified overly even misunderstood.

as when an orchestra tunes up to finding Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 2 shared tones and interconnected,

/Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 3 Elisabetta Marinelli Phd*Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Knowledge for Growth Unit (Kfg), European commission DG

philine. warnke@ait. ac. at Available online 21 january 2014 Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 4

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and academics who are studying foresight processes need to simplify Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

Available online 22 january 2014 Keywords: Foresight Governance National culture Policy making A b s T R A c T This paper addresses the influence of national traditions, styles or culture on the use of foresight in decision-making processes.

The Danish Government's Globalisation Strategy, from 2005, and the Danish research 2015 process, from 2008,

E-mail addresses: pean@dtu. dk, per. dannemand@gmail. com (P. D. Andersen. Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jou r nal h o mep ag e:

The Danish Government's Globalisation Strategy, from 2005, and the Research2015 process, from 2008. In both cases, the impacts have been significant and largely measurable in new legislation and budget allocations.

The Globalisation Strategy and the Research2015 process are two attempts to combine the strong Danish tradition for political compromises, negotiations and stakeholder inclusion with evidence-and expertise-based prospective elements.

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 6 One of the most comprehensive and acknowledged studies of national styles in management, decision making

In his original study from the 1970s, Hofstede analysed cultural differences based on attitude questions that were asked of IBM employees in 40 countries.

and covered 76 countries by 2010 22. In the original study, Hofstede presented four dimensions of culture (see Table 1) 20.

which individuals are integrated into groups P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 7 avoidance, such as Denmark or Great britain,

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 8 2. 3. Varieties of capitalism:

L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 9 common use in South Europe and South america and totally absent among the top 10 foresight methods in Northwest Europe and North america.

First, during the 1970s, Denmark had some rather negative experiences with prospective planning. In two prospective plans (Perspektivplan I and II) from 1971 and 1974, the government analysed social trends and developments 15 and 20 years ahead for the public and private sectors, respectively.

However the studies did not foresee the oil crises and the economic crises of the 1970s, and this gave such analyses a rather negative reputation among economists and planners in government.

Second, Denmark‘s tradition of basing policy decisions on analyses of available knowledge is weak.

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 10‘Denmark has had never strong traditions for basing political decisions on accessible knowledge as opposed to Sweden, for instance.

As late as the 1980s, the Danish governmental expenditure on research and development (R&d), relative to the country's gross national product (GNP), was among the lowest of the OECD countries.

Based on the Danish Globalisation Strategy from 2005, public expenditures on R&d have increased. Consequently, today, Denmark is among the OECD countries with the highest public expenditures on R&d.

In 2005, two thirds of Danish public research funding was appropriations directly to universities and research centres,

and the goal was to increase the competitive portion from one third in 2005 to one half in 2010.

This changing context has created a need for foresight understood to be political priority-setting for strategic research. 3. 2. Danish experiments with technology foresight In a green paper from 1995,

In 1998, the Danish Board of Technology established an independent working group to analyse and assess the feasibility of a technology foresight programme in Denmark.

The working group recommended that the Danish parliament launched a programme for technology foresight that has a budget of DKK 25 30 million (ca. EUR 3. 3 4. 2 million) over three years.

A technology foresight programme was established with the centre-left government's 2000 business development strategy 30. The strategy contains the following statement:‘.

A pilot programme for foresight was launched early in 2001. The allocated budget consisted of DKK 24 million (ca. EUR 3. 2 million) for the period of 2001 2004.

Following the general elections and the change of Government in November 2001, the ministries were reorganised,

and the technology foresight programme was moved to 1 Authors'translation. P. D. Andersen L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 11 the new Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.

Also following the change in Government, the budget for the technology foresight programme was reduced to DKK 18 million (ca. EUR 2. 4 million).

First, the section describes the Danish government's 2005 Globalisation Strategy. The Globalisation Strategy aimed at a very broad range of policy areas.

Research2015 aimed to set priorities for the government's strategic research programme or at least, parts of this programme. 4. 1. The government's Globalisation Strategy In the spring of 2005,

''which the reelected government presented after the general election in February 2005. The government established an internal Committee of Ministers and a broad-based Council for Globalisation,

From April 2005 to April 2006, the Globalisation Council held 15 meetings. The meetings typically lasted for two days, from lunch to lunch.

In light of the Globalisation Council's work, in April 2006, the government presented an overall strategy for Denmark in the global economy:‘

L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 12 as the capability of Danish research institutions to meet these needs.

Every four years, such a process should result in a catalogue of important themes for strategic research.

which was initiated by a passage in the Parliament in November 2006 as part of the national budget negotiations for 2007.

The catalogue that resulted from Research2015 was presented in May 2008. The task of coining out the priorities that was identified in the catalogue was given to the Danish Agency for Science Technology and Innovation (DASTI.

This mapping was conducted from March to October 2007. The mapping consisted of three parts. On behalf of DASTI, the OECD's International Futures Programme Unit carried out an international horizon scan,

This implementation came in the form of political negotiations in the context of the budget bill for 2009,2010 and 2011.

During the parliament's budget negotiation in 2008 approximately half of the 21 themes were received prioritised

Thus, the catalogue constituted the basis for prioritisation for the next three years. However other factors, particularly the Parliament's energy agreement, have contributed significantly to the prioritisation process.

During the parliament's budget negotiation in 2008, approximately DKK 1 bn (ca. EUR 134 million) was allocated to strategic research in the two year period of 2009 and 2010.

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 13 4. 3. Discussion of the cases Neither Research2015 nor the Globalisation Strategy was recognised by their key

lives P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 14 elements, such as workshops, hearings,

Theme Budgets in millions of DKKS 2009 2010 Energy, climate and environment Energy systems of the future 190 455 Future climate and climate adaptation 43 0 Climate

Implementation of the Research2015 catalogue in real policy Political negotiations in Parliament, starting with the Fiscal Act of 2009 Most(>75%)of the 21 themes for strategic research were receiving budgets Speakers from the parties

L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 15 5. Conclusion and perspectives This paper aims to contribute to the discussion of national cultures'effects on national foresight exercises.

Acknowledgements An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 12 13 may 2011, JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville, Spain.

Kickoff Conference of the European foresight Platform EFP, 14/15 June, Vienna, 2010, Available: http://www. foresight-platform. eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Key-messages-EFP-Conference-FINAL3-100623. pdf (accessed 20.12.11)( Online.

impacts and implications on policy-making, Futures 43 (April 3))(2011) 252 264.3 A. Havas, D. Schartinger, M. Weber, The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making:

recent experiences and future perspectives, Research Evaluation 19 june (2))(2010) 91 104.4 M. Keenan, R. Barre',C. Cagnin, Future-oriented technology analysis:

Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 163 169.5 E. Eriksson, K. Weber, Adaptive foresight:

navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (May 4))(2008) 462 482.6 O. Saritas, Systemic foresight methodology, in:

the case of Luxembourg, Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 november (8))(2009) 933 951.10 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan,

regions, Foresight 10 (6)( 2008) 16 38.12 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, Positioning future-oriented technology analysis, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds.

Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 1 13.13 L. B. Rasmussen, Interactive scenario analysis, in:

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Managing New technology Development, Mcgraw-hill, USA, 1994, pp. 287 314.19 G. Hofstede, Cultural dimensions in management and planning, Asia Pacific Journal of Management 1984

(January)( 1984) 81 99.20 G. Hofstede, Culture's Consequences: International Differences in Work-related Values, Sage, Beverly hills, CA, 1980.21 M. Minkov, G. Hofstede, The evolution of Hofstede's doctrine, Cross Cultural Management:

An International Journal 18 (1)( 2011) 10 20.22 G. Hofstede, M. Minkov, Long-versus short-term orientation:

new perspectives, Asia Pacific Business Review 16 october (4))(2010) 493 504.23 P. A. Hall, D. Soskice, Varieties of Capitalism:

Institutional Foundations of Comparative Advantage, Oxford university Press, NY, 2001. P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 16 24 P. A. Hall, D. Soskice, An introduction to varieties

of capitalism, in: P. A. Hall, D. Soskice (Eds. Varieties of Capitalism: The Institutional Foundations of Comparative Advantage, Oxford university Press, NY, 2001.25 J. L. Campbell, O k.

Foresight 10 (6)( 2008) 62 89.27 L. Togeby, J. G. Andersen, P m. Christiansen, T b. Jørgensen, Power and Democracy in Denmark.

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 17

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Evaluating local and national public foresight studies from a user perspective Nicole Rijkens-Klomp a b,,*Patrick Van der Duin c, d a International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands b Pantopicon

We are interested in finding out (1) how scenario analysis as a Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

Available online 21 january 2014 Keywords: Foresight Users Policy Scenarios Dutch government Local National A b s T R A c T In this paper, we discuss the opinions

ww w. els evier. c o m/lo cat e/fu tu res 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 19 The Overschie case involves the development and use of a qualitative scenario analysis as a strategic building block for a new strategic coalition

We used an independent evaluation that was conducted in 2010 by the University of Twente 21, based on interviews with 21 politicians and civil servants and a document analysis. Furthermore,

including all of its functions, with a time horizon of at least 10 years. At the local level, a document analysis was combined with interviews with policymakers.

and will be elaborated in the coming years. However, the initial findings can already shed new light on the use of foresight methods

N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 20 3. 1. How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of the scenario analysis method?

P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 21 When the main motive for using foresight methods is not necessarily a desire to realise a concrete policy end-product (such as an agenda, vision or strategy),

P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 22 flexibility of strategies, which was not how they were applied in most case studies (with the exception of The hague), because of a lack of time or expertise.

N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 23 way. Policy-makers were disappointed as a result of this,

however, that leadership is N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 24 a fragile factor.

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A Study of Stakeholder participation in an Integrated Assessment of Long-term Climate Policy in The netherlands, LEMMA Publishers, Utrecht, 2004.15 P. A. van der Duin, Qualitative Futures research for Innovation, Eburon

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Universiteit Twente, 2010.22 J. W. Kooijmans, M. Rours, Decision making Under Uncertainty, Plandag 2011, Brussel, 2011.23 P. A. van der Duin, R. van

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insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (2008) 369 387.26 J. Schoonenboom, Toekomstscenario's en beleid,(Scenarios and policies), Beleid en Maatschappij

30 (2003) 212 217.27 Stuurgroep Toekomstonderzoek Strategisch Omgevingsbeleid, Terugblik op Toekomstverkenningen (Looking back at Foresight studies), The hague, The netherlands, 2000.29 M. Van der Steen

Futures 44 (2012) 475 486.30 S. A. Van't Klooster, M. B. A. van Asselt, Practicing the scenario-axes technique, Futures 39 (6)( 2006) 15 30.31 M. Van der Steen, M. van der Vlist,

R. Demkes, Exploring the future through creative competition: the case of the RWS2020-project, Foresight 12 (5)( 2010) 41 57.32 T. Yoda, Perceptions of domain experts on impact of foresight on policy making:

the case of Japan, Technological forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 431 447. N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 26

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