so it is deemed even more important to work toward a more commonly accepted set of definitions for purposes of future work in this area. 2. 1. Trends The starting point for scanning definitions is usually to identify the key trends which are presently evident in the broad sense of being both discernible
Some analysts have attempted to distinguish trends by their degree of influence 3. 3 It is also possible to further analyse trends according to their duration, scale,
The increase in population from the Palaeolithic period to the present provides an example. 2 The UK Department for Environment,
forks in the road and deep uncertainties that keep executives awake at night. In this context, the definition for drivers of change was decided to focus on things that are accessible
In a very short time, slide rules and mechanical calculators disappeared and, in some cases, the companies that made these products disappeared
if realised within the next decade, could fundamentally alter our ways of making materials, practicing medicine and computation-making calculations, with pervasive societal impacts.
Discontinuities are those situations impacts where over time and extending beyond single events, change is rapid
were hard to estimate at the time, but can now clearly be seen as being indicative of things to come.
and signs usually associated with early developments in technologies, societal innovations, conflicts, origins of conflicts, etc. that while not easily verifiable from a present day perspective.
3. Estimated time horizon: 2008 2015; 2016 2025; beyond 2025.3.1.2. Data set Total surveys submitted:
Analysis of assessed impact, likelihood, controversy, time horizon patterns; Comparison of FTA COMMUNITY insights-domains content with others sources of Foresight trends, drivers, etc.
or government respondents see the prospective developments in longer or shorter time horizons than the business respondents?
Results can serve as baseline for a more quantitative-reactive survey next year likely generating a higher return rate requiring less time to formulate original ideas. 3. 2. Analysis of the results 3. 2. 1. Descriptive statistics
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The majority of the trends were considered to be medium to high probability of occurrence.
The time of occurrence for most of the trends was considered to be from 2016 to 2025.
Assessed together with the time horizon, the survey respondents generally expect that the highest controversies are likely to emerge from 2016 to 2025.3.2.2.3.
%Likelihood and time horizon assessment. Almost all respondents from all regions considered that there is a medium to high level of occurrence of the trends identified. 75%of the North american respondents considered that the likelihood of occurrence was high,
More than half of the respondents from North america and the EU countries suggested a medium time horizon (between 2016 and 2025) for the occurrence of the trends identified.
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. Similarly no significant differences were encountered between the different affiliation category groups.
whereas the majority of the respondents from business envisaged shorter time horizon for the emergence of trends (between 2008 and 2015.
The responses from the respondents from governments were balanced more between long, medium and short time horizons.
Time horizon. All respondents from less than 1 year experience to more than 15 years considered that the majority of the drivers will occur between 2016 and 2025.3.2.3.2.
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The respondents from North america and the EU countries suggested similar assessments for the likelihood of occurrence of the drivers identified.
whereas the majority of the respondents from the EU Candidate countries assessed the time horizon for the occurrence of drivers after 2025.3.2.3.3.
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The majority of respondents from Academia and NGOS expected a medium level of likelihood of occurrence for the drivers identified.
life prolongation Technological innovation to create inexpensive self-diagnostic devices Development of a global e-science community The new human:
if any of these eventually emerge. 3. 2. 4. 1. Further assessment of wild cards/shocks by time horizon,
Experience time horizon. As the years of experience increased, the time horizon for the occurrence of wild cards tended to remain between 2016 and 2025.
Respondents with no experience expected that the wild cards would occur after 2025, whereas the respondents with maximum 3 years of experience had a shorter time horizon (2008 2015).
Affiliation time horizon. Regarding the affiliation of participants, the time of occurrence for wild cards indicates parallelism between the respondents from Academia, Business and Other affiliations,
who have a medium term time horizon. While the time horizon for students and NGO respondents is longer,
it is the opposite for the participants from the Government, where the majority (40%)has a shorter time horizon for the occurrence of wild cards.
Country of residence time horizon. Respondents from the EU Candidate countries have a longer time horizon,
compared to the respondents from the rest of Europe. The respondents from North america have balanced a more distribution of time horizons among short
medium and long terms. Table 4 Examples of wild cards/shocks. Examples of wild cards shocks by category A b c Society & Culture 42 Rise of dogma, e g. creativism/creationism, social resistance to technological change New diseases from pharmaceutical and space
research Intolerance of science to renew moral outrage over genetic modification, trans-humanist research, etc.
Strong classes between cultures, intensification of conflicts between cultural classes Population boom & high competition in job markets Decline of knowledge grounded in local society and history because of less direct human interaction
Blockage of free trade due to a major pandemic Science & Tech. 9 Big disasters in science creation of out-of-control species, viruses, robots Disruption of technological systems Artificial intelligence passes human capacity Shocking scientific discovery challenges all hitherto received ideas, e g.,
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The likelihood of occurrence for about 50%of the discontinuities identified was considered to be medium.
Different from the other groups, respondents with 5 15 years experience considered that more than 50%of the discontinuities will occur with the realisation time between 2016 and 2025.
The candidate country respondents constituted the second largest group. Impact assessment. The impacts of the discontinuities identified were considered to be high by most of the respondents around the globe.
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. Strong disagreements were observed regarding the likelihood of occurrence of the drivers identified.
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. Regarding the likelihood of occurrence of discontinuities, the responses from Academia,
The figures changed slightly in the assessment of time horizons. This time Academia and Business suggested that most of the discontinuities would emerge from 2016 to 2025
whereas students and Governmental respondents expected a longer time horizon (beyond 2025. 3. 2. 6. Weak signals The radar diagram below (Fig. 12) shows the orientations of the 171 weak signals identified by the respondents of the Big Picture Survey.
The following observations were made after the analysis of the Weak signals:(TD$FIG Fig. 12. Orientations of weak signals.
of weak signals by time horizon, affiliation and country of residence. Experience time horizon. The respondents with a Foresight experience longer than 1 year expect most the majority of the weak signals to emerge in the medium term future (2016 2025),
whereas the inexperienced respondents have a longer time horizon (beyond 2025). This is likely due to the familiarity that older
and more experienced contributors have with how fast changes can really appear from insight to application.
Affiliation time horizon. The majority of the Business respondents have a longer term time horizon (beyond 2025) compared to the respondents from Academia
and Governments who consider that most of the weak signals will occur in the mid-term (2016 2025).
Country of residence time horizon. Regardless the country of residence most of the respondents have medium term time horizon, with a higher emphasis from the EU Associate countries.
Table 6 Examples of weak signals. Examples of weak signals by category A b c Society & Culture 61 Concept of rational behaviour in modernity losing value
and impact People might be eating plastics due to photo-degraded plastics in environments (e g. eaten by fish) Different ethical vision science built Stronger impact of artists Increase of genetic and hereditary
one that could provoke a more consistent and comprehensive response over time. The current paper aims to establish a methodological base.
even though time did not permit a full analysis of the data. Further analysis will include:(
1) trends and drivers by experience, country of residence and affiliation and also by responses on impact, likelihood, controversy and horizon time;(
So wait for the next iteration in 2010. In summary, the authors are excited by how this information might be dissected further
Unfortunately, she shunned Apollo at the last minute and he added a twist to her gift:
‘‘A significant feature of this era is the strange combination of more than ever long term challenges like climate change with the need for leaders to react in the very short-term conditions of a crisis''.More than ever,
Hence, some FTA outputs may enter the reservoir of knowledge where it may be drawn on at some time in the future.
‘‘while you can always tell when a foresight program starts, it is more difficult to tell where it ends''.
'2 but there is also value in selecting topics that are likely to arouse strong interest. 3 The challenge for high impact FTA is to select issues that have both a long time horizon,
Changes to these deeply embedded standards and practices will require both time and continuing commitment.
and talk up the latest FTA wares to those who may have need a to apply them. To this end, it is crucial in the future to design
and learn about the latest advances in and applications of FTA. This would suggest the need for continuing evolution of the format of the conference so as to engage policy-makers directly with issues in
Four scenarios were constructed by looking back to the present from the future state of 2050 The main purpose in using the scenario approach was not to predict
but that the longer the reviewed time horizon gets, the more uncertain the results become.
This research represents a starting point for interaction between urban planners and futurists. If this is achieved, the chances are high that foresight will elicit less technical skepticism in the urban planning realm.
and the less effects are excluded from the beginning. A wide range of unintended effects might come to the fore.
Two crucial issues in all TPMS have been the assumption of stability in model coefficients over time
and the assumption that variables excluded from the model will not be instrumental in modifying travel behaviour over time.
For example, they criticised that the assumed time for boarding and de-boarding will not be sufficient during rush periods.
Although this timeframe constitutes a short to medium time perspective, the action plans aims at building a long-term vision,
and their changes over the course of time. For transparent decision making procedures it is crucial to make preferences
However, as it was pointed out in the beginning of this paper, the approach aims at supporting a more proper handling of uncertainties by enabling a more appropriate application of fta methods.
''But the rules do not have to be fixed they can change according changes in the system too (for a driver a late night in a bad area may change the first rule to‘‘don't stop for anyone''.
phase change could result in‘‘no cabs for half an hour and then six come around the corner at once''.
The starting slate is never clean extremely tiny errors in understanding where the system starts from can send any‘‘forecast''off in totally the wrong direction.
that there is no‘‘new''starting point, and that tiny, often trivial actions can have huge, irreversible, impacts. 5. Non-equilibrium.
and will change over time (and will never‘‘settle down'')a peak may become worthless compared to others
of a variety of types Experienced, new, night, cheating Experienced, young, male, female, hungry...use their strategies (rules...
1 Minimise time to find customer 2 Go where customer wants 1 Avoid crowding neighbours 2 Steer towards the average heading of neighbours 3 Move toward the average position of neighbours...
The lesson is often that the environment/time/space/area in which one works and lives in determines how one thinks (the mental model or frame),
Human Science for a New Era, Transaction Publishers, Piscataway, NJ. Bhimji, W. 2009), Guidance on the Use of Strategic foresight Analysis for Policy development in Government, UK Government office for Science, London, available at:
Rami'rez, R. and Van der Heijden, K. Eds)( 2008), Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New methods for Applying Scenarios, Earthscan, London.
3/4. Ringland, G. 2010),‘Frameworks for coping with post-normal times: a response to Ziauddin Sardar'',Futures, Vol. 42 No. 6, pp. 633-9. Schwartz, P. 1991), The Art of the Long View:
what is considered to be highly significant to the nation's future at the time. Topics of some previous reports have included issues such as regional development and the effects of ageing of population.
The scenario process was facilitated by the Finland futures research centre (FFRC) of the University of Turku in late 2008.
and energy strategy for Finland 1. The time horizon in the climate and energy strategy was 2020,
The assumptions can be understood as best guesses of the operational environment of the coming decades
is a scenario coming back from the future to the present. A classical predecessor of modern backcasting is Edward Bellamy (1951) with his Table
I Progress of the scenario process Phase Time Method Goal Material gathering and final design of the study September 2008 Literary review,
Instead of continuities they build on possible discontinuities to reach the solution desired and try to break the trend of business-as usual.
a desirable future end state is imagined and visualised, not as a continuation of present trends, but rather as a giant leap directly to the future.
in formulating the path from the future to present external factors need to be taken account (Robinson, 1990, pp. 830-831).
This sequence of three main phases in the workshop was a modification of Jungk's (1987) workshop formula,
and actions leading to these futures to come back to the present from the future and go back to the future again.
the reliability and information value of calculations made using the kind of information that was available at the time of the task,
or public officials to have the time to learn and master all aspects of the decisions they make.
but it has to be noted that the longer the reviewed time horizon gets, the more uncertain the results become.
The Committee also paid attention in its statement to the fact that the government foresight report chose as its only starting point the success of the Copenhagen Climate Agreement.
because the time allocated for such an all-embracing work was very tight. The scenario team had collected a very impressive and insightful group of people to act as expert panellists for the Delphi and the scenario process to balance out the time constraints.
It is interesting to note that the results produced in the FFRC's process were altered slightly as they were presented in the final publication by the Prime minister's Office.
possibility of degrowth economy (since wellbeing was considered to be at least on the present levels, this would mean that in the future wellbeing is defined in a different fashion from today) was presented in scenario B. In the final publication of the results of the scenario process this notion was replaced with stable growth.
Presumably the original result was politically too difficult an issue to consider at the time.
Seen from the present situation in particular after the global financial crises, the anticipated possibility of degrowth economy is not an insignificant option
Regardless the choice of the methods, ample time to carry out the given foresight process so that it can best serve the needs of the client,
Time and Space for Sustainable development, Springer, Dordrecht. IPCC (2007), IPCC AR4 WGIII, Climate change 2007: Mitigation of Climate change, WGIII Contribution to the IPCC AR4, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge and New york, NY, chapter 13, Box 13.7, p. 776, available at:
a dominant design 4, are present. In this seemingly chaotic process it is important to look for the first signs that appear
they will depend on the shared expectations that are present. Expectations shape the mindsets of the various actors,
2000 2001 2002 Fig. 1. Number of times dnanotubet is mentioned in article titles (Picarta. 3 The fact that we use the emergence of this specialised journal for this paper is the fact that nanotubes is one of the major topics in this journal.
This discovery was the beginning of a whole range of microscopes achieving the same precision,
in the last decade, changed considerably 21. In the early 90's, especially the growth and (electrical, chemical and mechanical) properties were investigated in great detail.
longer lived and at least 10 times more energy efficient 23. Since the publication of Rueckes et al. 16, where they introduce the architecture of nonvolatile memory based on nanotubes,
this being the promise of huge computer memories (more than a thousand times greater in capacity than
bwithin this decade, the materials and processes on which the computer revolution has been built will begin to hit fundamental physical limits.
At the market side, other dynamics are present. Here, Nantero being the only company working on this technique tries to mature the given technique (proof of principle) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
buniversal memory has been a dream for the semiconductor industry for decades we fell that Nantero's innovative approach using carbon nanotubes
and start to work on solving the problems at R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1105 hand.
Technology assessment (TA) started in the late 1960s as an dearly warningt method 33, merely to inform parliaments about possible negative effects of new technologies.
In the late 1980s the notion of constructive technology assessment (CTA) became apparent in Europe. Many different types of CTA exist depending on the audience, phase of technological development, etc.
while it is unfolding at this very moment gives the opportunity to observe (for example with the method proposed in this paper) the construction of the technology in a more symmetrical way.
References 1 D. Collingridge, The Social control of Technology, Pinter, London, 1980.2 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of useful theory of innovation, Research policy 6 (1
34 J. W. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 251 268.
Originality/value The value of the present work lies in the synergy that can be generated between territorial foresight and urban planning
In fact, one of the core objectives of a city plan is to take decisions in the present time in order to correctly guide urban activities in the future for the benefit of its citizens.
In the dawn of urbanism visionaries such as Daniel H. Burnham, Lewis Mumford and Le Corbusier made an effort to depict the future of cities in drawings and words.
In the second half of the twentieth century, urban planning abandoned its visionary origins and became more technocratic,
In this context, urban planners had a hard time undertaking forecasts, since structural changes were making traditional paradigms obsolete.
These reasons explain to some extent the scant attention paid by urban planners in the last few decades to the revision and reinvention of futures studies as a field of practical knowledge.
After determining all kinds of implications across the territorial system, the analyst should be able to perceive the gap between the proposed future vision and the present situation of the territory
and urban planning PAGE 320 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 because all the elements are used in an articulated and coherent way, with a foresight exercise as a solid starting point.
Since the Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as‘‘the ability to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs''(World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987),
Megawatts hour of electricity per inhabitant consumed in a year Economic growth. Increase of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) or other measures of aggregate income, typically reported as the annual rate of change in real GDP Environment Selective collection of solid waste.
Many second homes will be abandoned by their owners because of maintenance problems, and they will be demolished either or recycled for other urban uses.
which gaps between the future scenario and the present situation can be perceived easily. The identification of gaps
An approximated work sequence can be set out as follows: 1. Evidence about the oblivion of territorial foresight among Spanish planners was gathered as part of doctoral academic activity (Ferna'ndez Gu ell et al.
the present research lays the foundations for the integration of foresight methods with urban planning processes in order to achieve a more sustainable development model.
This research represents a starting point for interaction between urban planners and futurists. If this achieved
Law tends to adapt to the passage of time through a gradual process, and hesitates to anticipate forthcoming developments.
looking at the past in order to address the present, while forgetting the future. In their efforts to establish a legal framework characterised by the fundamental values of order, stability and predictability, legislators,
looking solely to the immediate past in order PAGE 336 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 336-351, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
case studies 3. 1 Introduction FTA ACTIVITIES, techniques and research have registered an impressive growth over the past decade.
What developments are we likely to see in the coming two to three decades? What do those developments mean for national legal systems in the international legal order as a whole?''
It not only contributed to the construction of the various alternative scenarios that the project had planned to present,
limited to a short time span and resistant to prospective thinking and alternative planning. Despite the fact that scenarios have already been used in legal-oriented studies,
and not to problematize or present alternative visions of the future. Furthermore they were not of a legal nature (of
speeding the present towards the future by providing knowledge about tomorrow through data about today.
The project proposes using real time data (financial transactions, health records, logistics data, carbon dioxide emissions, or knowledge databases such as Wikipedia) to construct a model of society capable of simulating what the future holds for us.
collecting data in real-time and allowing‘‘one to do reality mining on a global scale and to measure the socioeconomic-environmental footprint of human actions,
connecting the future to the present. After a given period of time, a law of this kind would go through a‘‘future verification''assessment, in
the present) by this piece of legislation. 3. 4 Law enforcement Faced with increasing budgetary constraints,
enabling officers to focus their efforts in problem areas, armed with real-time information, accurate intelligence, rapid deployment of resources, individual accountability,
Rather, they surface particular times and locations predicted to be associated with an increased likelihood for crime.
arguing that‘‘we are surrounded by numerous professors of the past, but not one of the future''(Miles and Keenan, 2003).
‘‘the tendency to be captive to the'spirit of times 'and to assume that tomorrow's problems
but to allow for the future to come into being in the minds of the people of the present, that is, to allow for the future to be imagined,
the continuity of the financial investment presupposed in the application of fta tools?).Given the systemic unpredictability of the future 20, how can FTA-based
or research is vital for the consolidation and continuity of this approach, as otherwise the suggested application of fta to Law may run the risk of losing credibility in the eyes of policy and decision makers. 4. 2. 2 Neutrality and objectivity.
Rather than today's primarily‘‘reactive''work, according to which Law responds to observed economic trends and past societal events,
moreover, impossible) or to apply in the present the most perfect laws for the future.
3. These various tools and strategies differ according to the range of technology targeted, the time horizon span, their goals and outcomes, etc.
which might require the attention of legislators at some later point in time''.''Regarding technology assessment, it is interesting to note that it‘‘originally emerged with the aim of contributing to the balance of power between the legislative and executive branches of government,
overcoming the epistemic models of FTA that inherently assume a world that evolves as an extrapolation of the past,
methodologies and selected applications'',paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville.
It was introduced, in its very beginning, as an early warning of technological risks and unintended consequences, later also as a tool for an early diagnosis of the chances and potential of technology.
particularly the sustainability assessments of technology, is prepared by decades of experiences with technology assessments. Consideration of the long term perspective
For a detailed discussion of the different types of roadmaps, their scopes, objectives, methodologies and time-scales see e g.
It has become a widely used technique during the past two decades from the perspective of both individual companies and entire industries.
qualified estimates about technological hurdles and the degree of difficulty to overcome them and related time horizons,
who argued that the industrial era of the past and today's ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715475 http://www. tandfonline. com
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 730 Editorial information era will be followed by a molecular era,
when moving to the molecular era, thus limiting the possibilities of forecasting. He continued that
or whether they will become the dominant productive force in the next decades. Tuomi kicks off a set of contributions that look more conceptually at how FTA can contribute to identifying
by zooming in on the issue of unpredictability, in line with Linstone's argument on the limitations of forecasting in times of transition between two eras.
Their starting point is that FTA deals with phenomenological ignorance of three kinds (known unknowns unknown knowns and unknown unknowns) that give rise to an over-reliance on subjective opinion.
How do businesses develop successful continuity and become economically wealthy while simultaneously following their vision of the tenets of sustainable development?
and present four case studies of road mapping projects from the Technical research Centre of Finland (VTT). How to forecast technologies that depend mainly on discontinuous advances?
Three eras of technology foresight, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/FTA%202011
Three eras of technology foresight. Technovation 31, nos. 2 3: 69 76. Ollila, J. 2011. The innovation policy challenge, keynote speech.
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011