and use some ideas from cultural historical theory to argue that modelling the directionality of the innovative élan requires analysis of progress at several time scales.
for many decades after the telephone was invented, itwas marketed mainly for business use. Itwas often understood either as a newform of telegraphy or as a broadcast medium.
and almost the first five decades of its history, industry actively discouraged such use. This social use of the telephone was invented basically by housewives in the USA, in particular, by those in the Midwest, around the first decade of the twentieth century.
The challenge of ontological unpredictability can thus be formulated in a simple way: How can we predict the number of cattle or the impact of a new technology,
Akey starting point for Bergson was the belief that evolution is truly creative, and novelty is not only recombinatiio of already existing forms or unfolding of a predetermined future.
Out of this continuity, intellect, in turn, constructs a world that consists of discontinuities and potential breaking points.
It thus tells us how to break the continuity and create distinctions that matter. The distinctions that our intellect generates are not arbitrary, however;
In contrast to the mechanical time of physical sciences, the Bergsonian‘durée'of living processes therefore has direction and irreversibility.
teenagers start to use SMS for communicating with each other. At that point, social practices start to change.
Messaging becomes a key driver for development and profit in the telecom industry, and telecom operators start to write‘messaging'in their strategic plans and marketing material.
Ontological reality expands. After the new domain of reality moves from periphery to the centre,
and it needs to be described as a complex process that transpires in several different time scales in parallel (Tuomi 1999,203).
Yet, the movement towards future occurs in a context that can often be taken to be static in relation to the time scale of present action.
This is another reason for why we need to split the élan into multiple parallel processes that occur in different time scales.
allowing future to have an impact on the present: To take a transparent example: if I am walking in the woods,
my present behavior is not simply reactive, but rather it is anticipatory. 7) An anticipatory system,
The crucial point for Rosen is that time works differently in natural and formal systems.
In natural systems, time separates events into two classes: those that are simultaneous with each other
or logical relations that remain true independent of time, and time becomes a parameter that can be used to label system states.
In practice, this means that if the formal model is good enough a representation of the natural system,
we can use the formal system to find out the state of the natural system in some future point of time.
create hypotheses about the unobservable causal relationships, fast forward the formal model to a future point of time,
'On the right-hand side, time is a parameter that can be used to label system states
On the left-hand side, time is the creator of irreversibility and novelty. In other words, the left-hand side is the generator of innovations,
In slightly more provocative terms, predictive and formal models live in a phenomenological world that is fundamentally a reflection of the past.
The transitory moment when a proto-eye gains new meaning as an organ of vision is a creative moment
‘Weak signals'of future can often be understood as narrative fragments that are used to compose meaningful stories that make sense of the present as an endpoint of past history.
Making sense of the present thus involves backcasting both the present and the narrative future.
In the case of GSM SMS, ontological expansion looks less radical, as the emerging new social practices can be understood as new forms of already existing practices.
'when we assume an industrial age model of factory-based production, industrial era life patterns and health services,
elderly people could well become the dominant productive force in the next few decades, instead of a grand challenge.
In its present form, SMS emerged only after 1992 when Nokia introduced the first SMS-capable phone. 4. Leont'ev's activity theory was based on Vygotsky's theories on cultural historical development (Luria and Vygotsky 1992).
Much depends on the conflict between modernity, with its strong attachment to science, and post-modernity with its questioning of much that modernity accepts.
Staton (2006) drew out the poverty of foresight if Derrida's claim that foresight does not say much about the future is accepted.
In the present context, with its emphasis on science and technology, is embedded foresight in diminuendo in its corresponding social and commercial expectations?
The BWR was probably the best known at the time and stability in a known earthquake zone would have been very much in mind.
Similarly, any business has a certain momentum that will ensure its continuity for an uncertain time into the future in the absence of some new
but above all else to ensure successful continuity of the business based on securing future profits and a strong share price.
FTA has a strong role to play in businesses achieving successful continuity through offensive and defensive activities.
The outcome is then a version of the long-time notion of the future as a present appreciation of current knowledge projected to some future horizon.
while occurring over decades or centuries, bringing life changing events where an appreciation of existence alone will bring the situation into a liveable perspective.
Transformation of quantitative data from science, technology and pseudo-science into information then plays a role, in conjunction with thesteepv constituents,
selection of methods used in FTAINDICATING the nature of the knowledge (ignorance) each assumes to be present along the two axes.
and to get past their dichotomy by placing knowledge in a broader context of its contribution to social evolution Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 760 D. Loveridge
In its context, FTA helps to develop hypotheses as to how present situations may evolve into the future,
Scenario style photographs portrayed the UK at two time slots, 1985 and 1995. Interviews are used so often to obtain opinion that the procedure is regarded as mundane,
generalists, people of thought and people of present and future action. Generalist's had a wide spread of interests;
People of present and/or future action were those people whose present or possible future position meant that they were then able to affect the amelioration of a situation
or were likely to become able to do so at some time in the future. Seeking subjective opinion about a situation and its future from these three types of expert had to be tailored carefully to each
and the elicitations carried out sensitively, but within the general principles that apply to elicitation procedures.
the assessing ability test was repeated this time using questions drawn from the interviewees'field of expertise.
The scores from the second assessing ability test were a form of calibration of each interviewees assessing ability.
In 1983, Loveridge was only the then latest person to raise questions along the following lines:‘
and their meaning at scales and with methods that are unimaginable at the present time except to a few scientists.
'Nothing could have identified the‘unknown unknowns'that were present in the recent Japanese earthquake. In that sense, Derrida's argument is unassailable:
and that which cannot be at the time Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 766 D. Loveridge
so that its‘certainties'are fraught with the uncertainties of expertise (7) There is the temptation to believe that hugely increased computational power will take FTA into a Kurzwellian era in
During the last decades, dedicated foresight practices have emerged and various approaches and tools have been developed and evaluated (Coates et al. 2001;
and present the following comprehensive overview (Table 2). Foresight is exercised also in firms, where it tends to be framed in costs and benefits (Reger 2001;
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 772 H. van Lente Technological roadmaps basically are creative connections between expected developments in technological skills, sequences of products and potential future
markets. 3. Sociology of expectations In the last decade, the so-called sociology of expectations has studied how in scientific and technological developments actors continuously and explicitly refer to what is possible in the future:
People act not only in reaction to the past (socialisattion or present (roles in a social structure),
or present evidence of research may provide insufficient reason for support, the claimed possibilities in the future justify the costs.
Maybe it failed this time, but the next time it might succeed (Hellsten 2002). In some cases, such as nuclear fusion, this mechanism has secured costly research during decades (e g. on the Joint European Torus and International Thermonuuclea Experimental Reactor),
while proper results are lacking. Other studies stress that while expectations are needed to start a project or a programme,
they also introduce vulnerability when projects or programmes bring other outcomes than expected as they usually do (Geels and Smit 2000).
In the case of genomics, for example, where knowledge about gene sequences and protein structures promises to lead to new,
(which includes many choice moments) with more actors, more perspectives and, in general, more reflection (Schot and Rip 1996;
Sturken et al. 2004) like the‘electronic superhighway'in the 1990s or the‘hydrogen economy'of the last decade.
The past and future of constructive technology assessment. Technological forecasting and Social Change 54, nos. 2 3: 251 68.
On the one hand, scholars have shown that in the last two decades a significant number of leading firms of such diverse sectoor as energy, automotive, telecommunications,
and to provide empirical evidence of its contribution to sustain the advantage of the firm over time.
The second is‘effect'uncertainty and refers to managers'inability to predict what the consequences of drivers of change will be on their organisations (e g. will customers switch from a traditional product fuel-based car to an innovative one hybrid car?).
Firm Business Foresight activities started Philips Consumer electronics Early 1990s BASF Chemicals Mid-1990s Daimler Automotive Late 1970s Siemens Consumer Products,
Foresight in mature industries Environmental uncertainty and foresight approach The chemical and automotive industries throughout the last decade were typically mature and global industries where trajectories of technologies
The time frame is usually 10 15 years for Global Scenarios, but much shorter for sector and business scenarios.
in the display and large-screen TV segment, in the last decade, there have been some major market launches of such new technologies as liquid crystal display, plasma display panel, surface-conduction electron-emitter display, organic
A specific initiative the‘Probes Program'has been established recently as a long-run (10-year time horizon) research project intended to present‘provocations'about new lifestyle patterns,
Foresight activities usually cover a 10-year time horizon, while emerging trend investigations are scheduled yearly to fit in with the annual strategy calendar.
As with Philips, foresight efforts at Siemens aim at identifying strong discontinuities and disruptions in markets and technologies so that they can be acted upon quickly.
In the case of the consumer products and ICT businesses, the time horizon is 5 years.
these drivers of change did not affect either the identity of these components or the identity of the main activities of value chain of the chemical or the automotive business. 6 Over the last two decades,
and what responses it could adopt (e g. postponement of the launch of new models: response uncertainty.
who from the beginning has full awareness about the rules of the game and the cards in the pack (i e. boundaries of the business identity of the key components of the industry).
What we mean is that, in the last two decades, the automotive and chemical industries were affected not by such‘discontinuous'drivers of change and, more generally,
and a model of how companies create enduring continuity needed for sustainable development (Brundtland 1987). This paper suggests a dynamic framework of continual learning to enable businesses to anticipate
thus contributing to a business's successful continuity. The sustainable development of a business depends on the integration of sustainable thinking into mainstream decision-making and core operational processes:
Moreover, it should link the activities that need to be performed at each stage to build an organisation's ability to know itself (how things are done in the present),
It is the process of seeking in the present to bridge the gap between the present and the future continuously,
For most, the undeclared psychological imperative is to maintain‘successful continuity'and their independence. The secoon unspoken but implicit theme for a company is knowing that successful continuity,
measured by being able to secure future profits and a strong share price, for a limited time horizon, will be maintained through interdependence between itself and a swarm of suppliers and customers.
Businesses organise themselves to achieve these ends through activities under the rubric FTA but these are not an all-important part
which are seeking successful continuity for themselves and indirectly for the network itself. What role does FTAPLAY in successful continuity
while attempting to followwhat a firm believes to be its sustainable development and that of its mutually supporting network of businesses?
namely what may be important to do to help secure successful continuity and what to avoid doing to prevent self-destruction.
is a basic requirement for successful continuity. Foresight can also expose a range of equally likely paths into the future that may permit more insightful decisions to be made by a business.
and does contribute to a business's successful continuity. FTA cannot remove the uncertainty that surrounds its contribution to or nature of sustainable development in the wider context of its supporting network and society as a whole.
focus on processes and activities planning-Change factors as processes and activities interdependence-Decision based on risk/reward-Integration starts;
and proactive collaboration starts to be felt-Selection driver Is distributed quality coordination structure where structured collaboration starts to be felt-Stakeholders'engage
reward/punishment systems-Cooperation starts to be felt-Cooperation between interdependent teams-Informal training of sustain ability and necessary skills and practice-Teamwork,
and objectives-Based on feedback loops and information persistence-Interpersonal and technological channels in use-Based on cross boundary learning and knowledge flow-Intuition
legal Run the business Implementing the vision of sustainability Business Sustainability Maturity Model Business Path to Sustainability Comparing present performance (as it is) with the business
Time for the EU to meet global challenges. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European union. http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf (accessed July 2012.
and reviewing past and present decisions and performance to decide whether or not to be in business (changes needed) according to competitive
Furthermore it is time to define a vision for sustainable development to be pursued in alignment with the seven dimensions of sustainability,
starting early each spring. First, staff members submit short ideas answering written calls (i e.,, requests for proposals.
LDRD projects have a maximum duration of 3 years. Continuation proposals and an annual review are required for each existing project that has completed not its term.
The purpose of these visualizations was to identify past and present technological competencies and overlaps of competencies, within the IAS.
Time was built into the plan to iterate the visualizations if large differences were found between them and the leaders'mental models of their areas.
or restricting the data displayed to a certain time span and sliding through sequences of years with a slider.
Relationships among the individual data records may be displayed as arrows between documents and understood at many levels of detail.
but were thought to be increasing with time. Potential three-way overlaps were considered not. The Sandia-specific IA map, generated using the process described above,
Using the Vxinsight time-sliding capability we investigated trends in the IA overlaps, some examples
many hours of exploring, including reading abstracts, would be required. An alternative approach to tedious review is the development of a link analysis map coupled with an unstructured text-tagging rulebook.
However, such a map would take much more data and time to construct. Fig. 6 shows that significant areas of the graph, especially at the top and right, are covered not at all by any of the Sandia IAS.
Coming late in the annual process, the results have been more modest than they could have been.
Strategic development paths and systemic transformation capacities An important starting point when building an anticipatory culture is the realisation that organisatiion act under constant temporal tension.
and (3) the present, in which all the actions and decisions are put into action. It is critical to understand that the unrealised options in the past,
as well as the potential ones in the future, also affect the present decisions. The idea of an anticipatory culture builds on this temporal tension (Figure 1). Therefore,
with strategic watersheds decision moments when the organisation has to visit its fundamentals and ponder whether it is going to continue with business as usual, try modest renovations,
It is important to realise that not only the realised paths affect the present development and the future possibilities
but the unrealised options also‘haunt'the present in the organisation's Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and knowledge spaces 823 Figure 1. Interplay of past, present, and future knowledge in an organisation. memory, at least to some extent.
Therefore, it is crucial to conceptualise an organisation not as a closed node in the present,
the present, realised path in the past, decisions made in the past, and unrealised past options. Organisations navigate, as argued above, in the strategic landscape that increasingly requires specific systemic capacities.
and potential future options manifested in the organisation's present. We realise that transformation capacities could also be identified on other grounds
its visual format enables the transparent formulation of visions with explicit linkages across the temporal spectrum (present, medium term,
not only to depict its present position, conditioned by historical paths, as transparently as possible (structural openness),
and technologies in a certain time frame. The fifth way is to identify single targets in the roadmap structure.
The sixth way is to read roadmaps as temporal sequences, that is, to identify logical temporal sequences in a specific roadmap layer, such as enabling technology.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture, and knowledge spaces 827 In process-based roadmapping,
we have singled out four knowledge spaces that are important in the context of RTOS (see also Table 1). The model combines the four knowledge spaces with three basic temporal scales (past, present, and futures.
The present, as the sphere of all actions, is the most coherent one, and the past and the futures are more incoherent.
This visualisation underlines a crucial point: all three temporal scales are based on interpretation that is, the actors have different interpretations of the present in relation to the past
and the future but the present is the only temporal position where interpretations can be turned into actions.
The first knowledge space is the technology space, which basically covers the domain of techniica knowledge,
The second is the social/actor space, which covers all the issues that are primarily dependent on relations between different social actors inside and outside the organisation.
Building a technological vision Scoping new enabling technologies or new products Identifying temporal sequences Identifying singular elements,
the exploration of the more radical futures is restricted usually by the overaal need to identify certain actions in the present.
but that have significance in the imaginary of the present options). Table 1 translates the above-mentioned knowledge spaces into‘roadmapping language'and terminology.
First, impact evaluation was used to gain a systematic view of the past (see Halonen, Kallio, and Saari 2010.
The first roadmapping phase traced the big picture of the service landscape from the present moment (2009) until 2025.
Third, research should pay more attention to the systemic and temporal relativity of the organisations, that is, to how the interplay of past, present,
Managing the complex trade-offs between the properties of the strategic landscape and the time frame being considered.
We present results pertaining to the development of dye-sensitised solar cells. Keywords: Forecasting Innovation Pathways;
FTA TOOLS have expanded from technology forecasting of incrementally advancing technologies (e g. consider Moore's law describing some six decades of continual advances in semiconductor capabilities)( Roper et al. 2011).
plus patent analyses has contributed to science and technology studies for decades (cf. Van Raan 1988. With the expansion of databases that compile abstract records
Tech Mining the various publication and patent abstract records can track the emergence of key terms over time to spotlight new (appearing only in the most recent time period) and hot subtechnoologie (i e. those appearing
although the data in 2009 and 2010 were collected not completely by Thomson Reuters at the time of the downloading.
and is possibly entering into an era of rapid commercialisation. We applied science overlay mapping (Leydesdorff
US National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) is second with 4780, but much reduced activity recently;
but has not been mentioned frequently in conjunction with business actions (Factiva database. Dainippon Printing is extremely active in patent families
The use of multiple information sources in conjunction with each other enriches perspective on how the NEST is being developed.
and positioned in a time frame; and obstacles and opportunities that will facilitate or inhibit progress along a particular pathway can be located.
We illustrate the use of multiple information resources in conjunction with expert opinion to inform FIP, with special attention to the experiences in devising a TDS model
time horizons for innovation, and scope of study all reinforce the need to adapt these 10 steps to one's priorities.
He and the co-authors are preparing a Second Edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology (Wiley.
Measuring and mapping six research fields over time. Scientometrics 81, no. 3: 719 45. Porter, A l.,J. Youtie, P. Shapira,
chronic colitis) or (Dynamic Slow-start) or (dextran sulphate sodium) or (disease or patient*or QSRR)))Seeking papers that include (1) relate to DSSCS
85 90%solar cell market Multi-crystalline silicon Second generation Amorphous silicon To decrease cost To take silicon as the thin film Silicon thin-film solar cell Now,
In the Second and Third Basic Plans, which started in 2001 and 2006 (Government of Japan, 2001,2006),
In conjunction with this principle, a call for innovation through scientific and technological development was mentioned first clearly in the Third Basic Plan.
2007) and reduced the burdens of cost and time (Gordon and Pease, 2006. Combining methods has been recognized as a precondition of successful foresight
Questionnaires from the viewpoint of a time span of 30 years until 2040 were carried out twice,
and the region's place in the era of globalization. 3. Integrative study 3. 1 Advantage of combination A good public investment in research and development needs an overall picture of facets of science
''2.‘‘World's highest level medical environment underlying a healthy society with longevity'';''3.‘‘Health information infrastructure for eliminating disparities'';
an efficient,‘round-less',almost real time Delphi method'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 73, pp. 321-33.
This paper aims to present such a process(‘‘strategic dialogue'')and illustrate it with recent examples from Germany.
With his summary of the key results of foresight activities in Germany in the early part of the last decade, he also illustrates once more their wide-ranging and interdisciplinary nature and hence the need for an active and carefully designed transfer to research policy making.
and to describe the starting point in more detail. At this stage it is possible to map out in a first iteration the disputes that may hinder the strategic dialogues By its nature,
but rather ensures that fact-finding does not take up any of the valuable time (maximum of one
and they show the application of this dialogue approach in a range of different situations. 5. 1 Strategic dialogue to transfer results from the BMBF Foresight process Strategic dialogues were conducted, for example, for focus areas from the latest BMBF Foresight process (German Federal Ministry
and the process to the experts as well as to collect initial input to describe the starting point
In a more tangible sense, the European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006) although not couched at the time in precisely the same language of PAGE 30 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013‘‘grand challenges''set out a similar framework for addressing the critical
European research must focus on the Grand challenges of our time moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches. This calls for a new deal among European institutions and Member States, in which European and national instruments are aligned well and co-operation builds transparency and trust.
and results described in the case study. 3. 2 Scope and context of the exercise In the second half of 2010,
their potential impact and the opportunities (including market opportunities) they present for Ireland and the research areas that will be required to address the challenges and meet the opportunities''(Project Terms of Reference).
Although not explicitly designed into the methodology at the outset the identification of grand challenges was introduced
During the second half of the project, Forfa's posed the question of how the global drivers
anticipation of likelihood and impact Participants in the roundtable discussions were given time individually to appraise the drivers
and reputation as‘‘a player''and good partner in global politics and trade in uncertain times?
and innovation communities to consider the impacts of changes in conditions, resources and other factors over different time horizons.
Rationales for the European research area (ERA), Report of the ERA Expert Group, European commission, Brussels. European commission DG Research (2009), Preparing Europe for a New Renaissance.
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