The second is the building of advocacy coalitions. Foresight builds up an‘interaction space'by stimulating new networks and communities through the formation of a common vision.
The second is the emerging culture of strategy roadmapping in which the roadmapping is perceived more as a dynamic
and align their timing. Particularly when developmeent commercialization and diffusion of innovation takes place in a context with a high degree of systemic characteristics
either singular technologies or logical temporal sequences, in the roadmap structure. When the business environment follows the systemic logic of a value network rather than the more linear logic of a value chain,
and start to extrapolate steps backwards from the vision towards the present stage. This method is known as backcasting.
i e. to define the present state and start to build steps, finally reaching the long-term state.
Present Medium term Long term Present stage Change 2 Change 3 Change 4 Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Present stage Change 2
Change 3 Change 4 Present stage Change 2 Change 3 Change 4 Technology roadmap 1 Policies:
companies that operate across several jurisdictions report high compliance costs due to multiple regulatory frameworrks The second bottleneck is based the project nature of construction, with little replication at the design level.
Present Medium term Long term Present stage Technology developments 2 Technology developments 3 Technology developments 4 Technologybaase solutions Present Medium term Long term Vision Present stage Technology developments
2 Technology developments 3 Technology developments 4 Present stage Needs and market developments 2 Needs and market developments 3 Needs and market developments 4 Present stage Enabling technologies, convergence
At the level of drivers, the most important policy would be Present Medium term Long term Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Policies:
Real-time energy management systems; Sensor networks and ubiquitous sensing Nanostructured materials; Low-exergy technologies renewable sources, energy storage;
but should be offset by demandorieente innovation policy measures such as smart regulatiio and public procurement. 4. 2. 3 Sectoral development.
and solutiions The present markets are fragmented and emphasiiz suboptimization by price. The regulations are defined mainly technically,
The most important present solutions are: assessment and certification services, low-energy concepts and distributed building services systems (e g. heating and air conditioning.
development of ICTS will focus on product model technologies linking design, building, operation and real-time EMS.
In materials, a key present enabling technology is advanced materials and energy efficient lighting solutions (e g. LED. In the long term, the use of low-energy technologies and energy efficient, flexible lighting solutions (e g.
ICT will increasingly be present in our everyday private and business life. It has contributed to decreasing the resource consumption and resource-intensive lifestyles in many ways.
Smart production and recycling technologies have resulted in Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Technology roadmap 1:
Optimizing systems Increasing awareness of global consequences of climate change Economic recession Emission trading starts to have effect on companies Rising living standards in BRIC countries Green values:
duration, upgradeability, recyclability Global treaties, initiatives and campaigns on environmental questions Shortage of fossil fuels and fresh water Standardization of green monitoring solutions REGULATION AND DEMAND-SIDE POLICIES:
The second is the economic recession. Recession is empathetically a double-edged phenomenon: it can be a driver for environmental solutions by focusing on issues such as the reduction of materials
The strategic policy issues in environmentaall sustainable ICT start from the present zero position in which there is basically no regulation
and sensor network-based subutility energy measurements play a key Present Medium term Long term Key technologybaase solutions Vision Basic automatic meter reading (AMR) maturing Present
Foresight processes can produce outcomes that spring from interactions between multiple stakeholders. The success of the systemic foresight process could be evaluated, for example,
and over time (see Section 2. 2) . If effective research and innovation are seen as part of the solution to these tensions,
existing clientele Risk taking for new discoveries Risk averse Priority setting by peers Priority setting by diplomacy Long-term perspective Time pressure Simplified yet sustainable funding Juste retoura
T. Ko nno la and K. Haegeman 2. 2 Dimensions of co-ordination of transnational research programming The challenges of transnational research collaboration have been addressed for decades,
The aligning of research systems with vertical and horizontal co-ordination efforts face major difficulties in facilitating policy activities that lead to sustainable policy efforts over time.
The OECD (2003) defines temporal coherence as a general policy objective that ensures that policies continue to be effective over time
given the role of time lags in transnational policy-making contexts. Table 3 links the four dimensions of policy co-ordination, as described above
In last two decades systemic challenges in research and innovation have lead to the development of systemic Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 195 instruments for better preparedness, co-ordination and integrratio of research and innovation systems
and piloting of the proposed approach. 3. 1 Foresight processes case by case The cases were handpicked principally because of the explicit role of foresight activities in their implementation as well as the fact that the present authors had access to the information
) Temporal co-ordination Ensuring that policies continue to be effective over time and that short-term decisions do not contradict longer-term commitmeent(‘dynamic efficiency')Differences in degree of continuity of policy design
and implementation Differences in start and duration of national programmes Different national rules and cycles make collaboration impractical Differences in speed of implementation at national level Differences in degree of long-term planning
at national/regional level 196. T. Ko nno la and K. Haegeman specific processes and roles of foresight in each of these cases is given below and in Fig. 2. 3. 1. 1 Wood Wisdom-net24.
Based on the results of the last workshop for funding organisaations three working groups were formed such that each consisted of funding organisations with shared interesst in the topic of the working group. 3. 1. 2 EMIDA ERA-NET27.
and respective foresight roles Case Partners Timing Goal Role of foresight Wood Wisdom-net20 18 partners from 8 European countries 2004 8 Establish
support mobilising and networking of innovation communities across borders EMIDA ERA-NET21 29 partners (and three observers) of 19 EU Member States and Associated Countries 2008 11 Develop a durable focused network22 of national research funders in Member and Associated States of EU in order to share information,
which can change during process accordiin to upcoming needs Analysis of current time horizon of existing programmes reveals a lack of longer term foresights.
Foresights with a time horizon of 2050 and beyond are planned therefore Development of scenarios, desirable futures and pathways towards these futures for specific Urban Europe topics Use of a pilot call to improved understanding of future trends
and can compare this with current programmes and their time horizons. Alternatively, current and planned programmes can be checked against alternative future scenarios to test their robustness over time.
Temporal co-ordination also relates to regularly checking those scenariios visions and roadmaps against new developments
and to help building communities over time, thus making use of the collective knowledge of wider stakeholder groups.
the tasks in the final phases were specified not fully at the outset, because it was expected that results from the earlier phases would be helpful in planning these tasks.
and design for the duration of the Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 201 entire exercise,
Instead of seeking to‘fix'the objecttive and associated process design at the outset those in charge of the foresight process should anticipate,
At the time of writing this paper only the expected outcomes have been defined, as well as criteria to assess potential call topics, such as providing input and insights for developing new concepts and providing input for research roadmaps.
In turn, with the notion of‘result flexibility'we refer to leaving flexibiliit with regards to how the results are expected to be presennted Between the modules executed in sequence,
and to be time consuming, hence be counterproductive by inhibiting the rapid and efficient implementation of transnational research programming.
The transnational, efficient and effective engagement of numerous stakeholders may lead to time-consuming and resource-intensive processes.
However, such internatiiona engagements call for a structured and modular design to avoid endeavours that are time-and resource-intensive.
and the principles we have outlined are integrated into the overall design and management from the outset of the programming activities.
2005), Anderson (2010), Chioncel and Cuntz (2012), European commission (2011), Seiser (2010) and authors'own expertise. 6. An indicator of the culture of openness may be the past and present openness
ERAWATCH is a platform collecting data on national research systems in the ERA, including policy documents and research programmes. 11.
NETWATCH collects data on transnational research collaboration in the ERA. 12. In Europe the following European and intergovernmennta mechanisms are in place:
2005), Anderson (2010), Chioncel and Cuntz (2012), European commission (2011), Seiser (2010) and the present authors'own expertise. 20.
industrial relevance, possible time horizon for industrial use and need for collaboration at EU level. 27.
2010a)‘ A vision for strengthening world-class research infrastructures in the ERA',Report from the Expert Group on Research infrastructures, Directorate-General for Research, Directorate B European research area:
Gnamus, A. 2009) Comparative Report on S&t Cooperation of the ERA Countries with Brazil, India and Russia, JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, EUR 25022 EN.<
<http://www. era. gv. at/attach/Urban-Report ecassessment 201104 final. pdf>accessed 15 march 2012. Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 207
The present paper draws on the experiences from the seventh European Framework programme horizon scanning project Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues (SESTI.
3 During the project the present authors developed an approach to organise and implement horizon scanning processes effectively
Van dijk 2002) and nowadays audiovisual presentations and computer simulations. The outcome of a political discourse is partly dependent on the contents and shape of the communicative expressions of the participants their cognition in wide sense as well as the power relationships between the participants (Chilton 2004;
As a starting point a frame of reference is conceptualised for the chosen policy domains. Signals are sought then that give a full or substantial future narrative with high impact for a certain policy level.
because most of the contributors did not want to spend time writing new full-length articles on issues that had already been described elsewhere.
and is bound to the moment in which it is executed. Thus, there is a limited possibility for retrieving new information.
and also a body of additional signals that are considered to be indicative of the start or development of their emergence.
The results of the scanning can also be a starting point for taking into account the areas of unknown unknowns by spotting gaps in the scan picture
and commitment of participants are critical factors for success. The survey conducted in the SESTI project was confronted also with the limited time and visibility of the contributors.
when the fields are specified and the scanning starts from well-defined fields such as energy, conservation or science and policy (cf.
the ability to trace how signals evolve over time. In general, however, the potential of Twitter to become a main tool for retrieving future-oriented information is high as colleagues,
the speed of communication is ahead of the sheer time needed to think and get in the lab and work.
the timing of bringing up signals or emerging issues could be a crucial factor for their further consideration in the policy-making arena.
Timing seems to be a general challenge with early signal analysis. Due to the novelty of issues the evidence basis at the beginning is rather weak
As the signal starts to have visible negative impacts on its environment possible controversies and disruptions may emerge alongsiid a general frustration about the lost opportunity to be informed earlier about the potential upcoming developmennts This forms a difficult challenge for scanners who Table 2. Comparison of tools
and methods in horizon scanning. 215 want to be successful by giving the right alerts to policy-makers at the right time in order not to over-occupy their busy agendas.
Apart from timing, there are also challenges in bringing forward a potential emerging issue or early signal to policy-makers.
i e. the interests of the client, the wider policy context which they are associated with, time and budget restrictions,
These combinatiion present different features in terms of the degree of automation of the tools that are used and the degree to
Table 3. Evaluation criteria for scanning approaches and methods Connections, clustering of weak signals and degree of relevance to a specific area Duration of weakness of signal, also associated with time at
specific for survey and conferencces large for focused expert review, literature review Duration: observation time Through reports, blogs, groups, social networks, Twitter, sites, etc.
observatiio time depends on participants) Reports as pdf, docs, rtf and parts from website, e g. RSS (Really Simple Syndication) feeds for text-mining.
Articles, websites, videos for focused expert review. Any other info piece for second-round scanning (observation time depends on scanner) Experts'knowledge;
literature; conferences for additional signal/issue selection and refinement of reference frame (observation time depends on participants
and scanner) Signal/issue selection criteria Predefined criteria based on sources other futurists use (sense of credibilitty
and clustering Cross-checking with results from recent foresight exercises Duration: observation time High Medium Medium As reported but also time series tracing possible in blogs, google etc.
As attached to raw sources for text-mining. In focused expert review via tracing back earlier signals
and communication of the most important issues at the right time is both a challenge and an absolute necessity.
The special nature of horizon scanning activities points to the importance of continuity to increase the relevance, validity and timeliness of the information.
Time for the EU to meet global challenges',24364 EN, 6/2010. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European commission.
Time for the EU to meet global challenges'which was carried out for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors.
Here, the need for horizon scanning is intensified effecttivel by the long lead times for bringing about desired policy impacts (cf. climate change mitigatioon) Taking this remark further,
Time for the EU to meet global challenges, 'which was carried out in 2009 by the Joint research Centre-Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors (BEPA) of the European commission (EC).
such as available resouurce or the duration of the exercise, may impose comparrabl bounds. 2. 2 Sense-making:
by doing so, foster the development of joint policy measures without necessitating potentially time-consuming and cumbersame changes in existing organizational structures and practices (Anderson 2005).
for instance, indicates that the first criterion is the most importtant followed by the second and then the third.
M Pervasive sensors for real-time surveillaanc are diffused widely on a global scale by 2020 M V Investments in defence will carry on declining in world R M=
and loss of ecosystems services 6 DS13 Attacks on infrastructure facilities 6 DS15 A major war by 2020 6 DS81 Pervasive sensors for real-time surveillaanc widely diffused Global
individual projects or programmes of limited duration and with targeted objectives. dedicated units providing continuous input to their embedding
Time for the EU to meet global challenges'which has informed the strategy processes of BEPA and JRC, has influenced also other stakeholders,
Time for the EU to meet global challenges',24364 EN, 6/2010. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European commission.
kerstin. cuhls@isi. fraunhofer. de One urgent mission for European research is to focus on the grand challenges of our time.
The idea The Lund Declaration (Lund Declaration 2009) formulated a request that European research should focus on the grand challenges of our time, moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches.
In order to differentiate from the rather technologydriive processes of the past, a new approach was sought. This new strategy process should orient itself more towards demand-driven questions.
and try to identify what is lying ahead without looking into the past. Global challenges therefore represent different strands of issues (authors'own observation:.
in order to give some examples of these different views of global challenges that were starting points for the Fraunhofer considerations. 2. 1. 1 First example.
2. 1. 2 Second example. The State of the Future reports of the UN Millennium Project can be regarded as another source for‘megatrends'and long-lasting challenges for the future.
To the best knowledge of the present authors, the State of the Future report is the most comprehensive
therefore as an appropriate starting point for the Fraunhofer Future markets process. 2. 1. 4 Fourth example.
and results should be quickly implementable to create the maximum impact in the organisation in the shortest possible time. 3. 2 Former future-oriented processes at Fraunhofer (technology-driven) In 2004,
and technologydriiven the starting point of the processes was technologies and technological approaches. Both processes were started to enhance
and evaluated as the starting point. Experts with different technological backgrounds met in workshops to discuss
European research must focus on the grand challenges of our time moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches. This calls for a new deal among European institutions and Member States, in which European and national instruments are aligned well
The specific challenges served as a framework for the second bottom-up, part of the process. Within a competitive call, institutes teamed up to develop technological solutions to the challenges in the form of collaborative project proposals.
The most convincing projects were funded internally. 4. 2 Deriving Fraunhofer-specific challenges from global challenges The 2009 State of the Future report of the UN Millennium Project was chosen (Glenn et al. 2009) as a starting point for deriving the Fraunhofer
mass customisation Change in work Individual is a lifetime entrepreneur, time and location flexibility, and mental flexibility necessary (lifelong learning), greater importance of women in business and society Increasing mobility and transport Due to increasing global flows of goods and leisure Increasing
Sum 25 5 137 Table 4. Second Round Round 2 Challenge Project ideas Selected Projects Teams involved Mobility 6 tbd
and outlook Using global challenges as a starting point for an internal FTA PROCESS within the corporate strategic R&d planning was a new approach for Fraunhofer.
Other institutes were involved often quite late in the development and formulation of the problem-solving process.
Central moderation of the problem-solving as a kickoff of the application phase is necessary in order to identify solutions with high impact and to foster collaborative aspects.
Time for the EU to meet global challenges'.'Sevilla: JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, EUR 24364 EN, European commission Report.
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