in the present era of public funding accountability, remaining viable in the long term seems to be a critical indicator of success. In terms of critical success factors it was interestiin to note that all the studies showed that foresight delivery
At the time of writing, Jack E Smith was Senior Advisor Federal Foresiigh and Innovation strategy, Defence R&d Canada.
However, indirect and/or unanticipaate impacts that fall outside the scope of speciifi programme goals
innovations implemented and legislation adopted Table 3. Success factors influencing the political role of participatory technology assessment Societal Institutional Process properties Good timing
How has evolved the foresight program over time? Do you have a foresight wish list? In the final phase, senior representative (s) from the nine foresight institutions identified during the first study were contacted by email and/or through direec telephone conversations to request additional information,
persistence and innovation, especially in communications; synchronization with the business agenda of the organization Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 36 Ireland, Japan, Finland and the UK;
Denmark (Spain was exchanged in favour of Australia to have more global diversity and three more European countries were added);
in this era of public funding accountability, seems to be critical in itself as an indication of success. As many subjects stated,
there were many consistent comments in the interviews that provides the beginnings of a model on
Excelleen foresight is both time sensitive and attractive to those motivated to detect change ahead of its appearance,
and websites devoted to key stakeholders to an approach of getting in the elevator with key decision-makers to give them 60 second elevaato speeches.
As present (early 2010) there are some encouraging signs of a revival of interest by the Canadian government in a modest S&t foresight initiative so,
This is just the beginning of what we hope will be a stream of other research that helps identify factors leading to foresight success. Finally,
'Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Futuureoriented Technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
there have been other emerging infectious diseases (EID) which also present threats to humans and animals. More new diseases have emerged in the past 20 years than in the previous 50 years with the majority of these originating in wildlife.
In the present study we have applied the concept of converging technologiies particularly the pragmatic European definition,
'The technology roadmapping method has been used in the present authors'previous region-wide studies (APEC CTF, 2006.
The new challenge in the present study is the roadmapping of converging technologies within the diversity of the Asia-pacific region.
the trends of potential infectious diseases, the timing of the emergence of those diseases, the level of severity of the impacts from the spread of those infectious diseases to communiitie etc.
2005) where EID become a threat in the Asia-pacific region over the next decade and beyoond Thirty three experts from seven economies met in Thailand in February 2007 to develop scenarios for the future of EID in the Asia-pacific region.
and the uncertainties influencing these drivers were considerred Self-consistent scenarios were constructed then for an agreed time in the future.
The time frame of the roadmaps was divided into three periods: short term (2007 2012), medium term (2012 2017),
Current S&d includes diagnostic testing and monitoring of cases by persoonplace/time characteristics. Future diagnostic or communication technologies could potentially improve upon the likelihood and timing of diagnoosi and reporting.
Treatment (Tr. Current treatment options include drugs such as artemisinin-based combination therapies. Future drugs could potentially be even more effective and cheaper.
if no action were to be taken, the time window for effective intervention, and the efficacy of possibbl interventions.
-and longteer time horizons. Diagnosis of infectious diseases is done usually by detecting causative agents (virus, bacterium, etc.
Such a continuity of effort to disseminate the outputs of the project and inspire other activities during the later stages of the project
The project was announced concluded in late 2008 and the full report (APEC CTF, 2008) with policy recommendatiio was presented at the 34th APEC Industrial Sciennc
and the intended time horizon. The proposal is being considered by the Rockefeller Foundation for funding,
medicine with testing linked to information networks and personalized treatment High throughput technologies Rapid pathogen genetic characterization, high level of biosecurity Users'requirement Access to latest technologies
high polymerase chain reaction capacity High throughput genetic sequencing Multiplex testing Access to latest and developing diagnostic technologies High-level investigative capacity and capability Local site Regional
To this, the final stage (technology roadmappping added the details of a proposed‘working plan'that are suitable in different time frames
It is only a beginning and there is a need for further action by individual economies
and communication technologies (ICT) has been challenged in various ways over the last few decades. Due to extensive convergeenc in the domains of communication, consumer electronics, computing
and which propagates the industry's‘push'perspectiive has dominated the theoretical debate for several decades.
i-City was located in Hasselt (Belgium) at the time. Using technologies such as Wi-fi, Bluetooth, general pocket radio service (GPRS) and universal mobile telecommunications system (UMTS),
At the time of the research, the panel had 450 members. Althooug the test users were more than averagely intereeste in mobile technologies,
we zoom in on distinct moments of user involvement during the three stages (see Figure 1),
time-use frameworks were used in the focus groups. Eight categories of daily time-use were identified:
social participation, household activities, study, work, transportation, leisure, health and sleeping and restinngrelaxing. To complement the traditional social science method of focus groups,
For each archetype, we listed a series of daily activities within the time-use framework.
Participants in the focus groups were asked to descrrib their daily activities at different times using questions like
The list was divided preliminnaril into eight categories based on the time-use research. Although the full list of 80 applicattion (Table 2) is too long to be discussed in detail in this paper,
Blind aid Spare time suggestions Museum tour Cot death alarm Mobile search Event information Table 1. Archetype Patricia and some of her daily activities Time use
User-generated applications that were not being developed by the industry at the time of the reseaarch Applications that were mentioned by the users
but rather those applications that enable people to save time and that contribute to a better quality of life.
1. availability of network (connection at any time, anywhere; 2. user-friendliness; 3. interface; Table 4. Ranking of application clusters and separate applications based on respondents'interest level Application (cluster) Average interest (1:
and information (Mobnews cluster) 3. 11/5 Public transport schedules 4. 11/5 Checking available places in cinema 3. 72/5 Spare time suggestions 3. 10/5 Payments and financial affairs
and 5. response time. 2. Pre-usage translation workshops. The aim of these workshops is to find an optimal match betwwee user-indicated Qoe elements and measurabbl Qos parameters.
In the pilot study, a photo-download application was for example devellope to simulate different download times (ranging from 0 to 5 second scenarios.
more time is needed to load such things as pictuure on the PDA, which causes the application to slow down.
one-and-ahaal years is an adequate time lag between R&d and realization of R&d outcomes for most industries and for incremental innovations.
For the firms that compleete their subsidized R&d during the second half of the reference period, particularly in the year 2002, it is questionable,
whether or not they would have had enough time until the end of 2002 to realize any additional innovation gains. 53%of projects were finished by the middle of 2001,78%by the end of 2001.
Hence, for the large majority of the projects there was enough time to have a measurable impact of R&d on their innovation performance.
%The subsidized firms are characterized further by the industry affiliation and the number of employees in full-time equivalents (firm size.
The present analysis yields some information on three policyrellate issues: the type of enterprises that received subsidies from the CTI;
There is some measurement error in this calculation due to the time incongruence between subsidies granted before the beginning of 2000
Time for the EU to meet global challenges'(Boden et al. 2010) to illustrate how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues, the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters,
Time for the EU to meet global challenges',24364 EN, 6/2010. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European commission.
Foresight seeks to provide a strategic perspective for the present, with knowledge of future possibilities, building commitment to and coordination on national or institutioona priorities.
From 2001 to the present, the CGEE has conducted nearly 400 strategic foresight exerciise and strategic evaluation studies, mobilizing more than 2000 experts per annum from an average of 300 institutions.
but is also very important nowadays and constituute a differential for organizations and countries looking forward to shaping their own future
In this sense, shaping the future from the perception of present opportunities is, broadly speaking, known as foresight.
We can say that they are interconnnecte every time the need arises to identify possible futures
This paper will focus on strategic foresight, taking advantaag of CGEE's background in conducting strategic foresiigh exercises and strategic evaluation studies during the past decade, all of
This requires time, especially in the case of complex situations. Again, this is another challenge, as different stakeholders usually have divergent perspectives for defining the best route towards the desired future.
the time available to complete the exercise. The most important intangibles are as follows:.Collective learning..
The culture of looking ahead, having the past as an important reference..The collective commitment to take joint courses of action.
and Grupp 2001) This approach aims to link the present decisions and actions to a strategic perspective, coping with the possibilities of the future for the construction of commitmeent around national priorities for ST&I. 248.
This starts with the correct identification of factors associated with the subject under analysis, including its nature and scope, time horizon, intended applications of the results by clients etc.
Participatory management structures are recommended highly to allow for‘on the fly'decisions to be made once the exercise starts.
on one hand, balanced the knowledge related to the present and a number of relevant future possibilities, and, on the other hand, compared the internal and external views about the agency,
which could impact its present and future. There were three relevant elements over which FINEP had partial or no control at all:
is the representation of a temporal sequence of possible future events, delimiting the scope of the observation dimensions
If we look at the past, it is clear that a great change is anticipated often by a series of micro-events, often not perceived.
focused on prospective vision and on the definition of strategic guidelines covering time horizons of 5, 10 and 15 years..
but also and mainly with its continuity. This represents an important intangible gain, where the process was as important as the outcomes..
The present authors hope to expand this experiienc to other cultures, societies and realities. These three types differ in the following aspects:.
Preparation and delivery timing: Government: the sense of timing is related to politicca opportunities which arise to create initiatives and projects in the course of a given government mandate.
The main challenge is to introduce long-term perception and analysis to foster strategic foresight of interest to the state more than a given government structure.
the sense of timing is driven by increased competition in the internal and external markets, requiring immediate solutions to the problems identified,
Time is usually not a problem and all governance levels are to be considered and respected.
Government representatives frequently start making decisions before interpreting the material which was obtained in the first phase of the exercise (informatiio and data gathering),
It is possible to see results in real-time, filter by question or respondent, and export the data.
In the last decades, the rise of new public management within state administration has had also a major impact on science policy-making,
The second is related to institutiionand capacity-building and governance of the S&t system, and in particular floor funding of academic institutiions Ergas'work
in modern times it has lagged behind Western countries in S&t (Ke 2004). Beginning with the founding of People's republic of china in 1949, a Socialist centralized S&t system was built in the 1950s by adding the Soviet model of centralized planning onto the S&t system that had emerged in the Republic of china (e g.
From the beginning of the reform period, S&t constituted one of the‘four modernizations'identified by Deng xiaoping (and earlier by Zhou Enlai) as pillars of the reform,
Throughout the era, Chinese leaders have pointed to science as a key to economic progress and competitiveness, most recently through the concept of‘scientific development'and the launching of the indigennou innovation strategy (e g.
The latest MLP was presented in February 2006 and lasts until 2020. It proposed guidelines which are expressed in 16 Chinese characters:
which goals are pursued through the various priorities identified in the latest and largest plans and programs.
The funding of the 973 Program by S&t fields is shown in Table 4. The most salient example is the 973 Projects where the average funding for one project is 30 million RMB, about 100 times larger
since their time span has varied over the range 8 15 years. The national S&t programs,
Thus, in the making of the latest Medium and Long-term Plan, an‘expert consulttatio group for the overall strategy for the Mediumaan Long-term Plan'consisting of around 20 senior scienttist was created in 2003 to provide input to the‘leading group'which was made up of the Prime minister
The 1978 Science Conference functioned as a starting-point for a renovation of the S&t system by acknowledging S&t as a productive force.
while also indicating the decoupling of science from the planning exercises of the past. 268.
Present address: 10f.7, No. 57, Ln. 136, Xuefu Rd. Tamsui Dist.,New Taipei City 251, Taiwan (R. O. C.;
agriculture. 1. Introduction Over the last two decades scholars working on innovattio systems have established different ways in
and explore the changes in the relationships between these components over time. Since national institutions,
2004), is developed the biotechnology in the post-genetic engineering era in the 1970s and comprised of a broad range of knowledge fields. 1 The biotechnology developed before the post-genetic engineering era is defined in this paper as traditional biotechnology.
While the majority of the existing literature on modern biotechnollog focuses on the empirical experiences of European countries and the USA (Mckelvey et al. 2004;
We especially focus on the components of each NSTIS and the changes in their interactions over time.
did Taiwan start to use Chinese herbal medicines. Later, these Chinese herbal pharmacies gradually set up their own herbal factories (DCB 2003:
At the time, strict clinical trials were applied gradually for the development of new herbaceous5 medicines.
some Taiwanese universities also set up locally. 6 Until the late 1970s, there was a total of six pharmaceutical colleges in the universities of Taiwan (Zheng 2001:
Only after 1998 did the government start to recognize Chinese herbal medicines as the backbone of the pharmaceutical sector.
Only in the late 1990s did the government start to support the development of modern pharmaceutical biotechnnolog through supporting the innovation of new herbaceous medicines. 3. 2 Evolution of the Taiwanese agricultural biotechnology innovation system 3. 2
The main purpose of the agricultural policies at the time was to direct the agricultural sector to maximize the production of agricultural products, especiaall the primary productions of rice and sugar cane,
and evolve differently over time. As shown by the case of Taiwan in the pharmaceuticca biotechnology innovation system local SMES led the innovation and manufacturing.
but may also change differently over time. Secondly, different NSTISS may adopt the same knowleedg base to develop different products
and co-evolve with different NSTISS over time. Our final issue is the implications of RTDI policies.
A review of the past and projectiio for the future',Forum for Agricultural Innovation and Development Council of Agriculture, 26 nov 2004, pp. 15 21.
if neglected, have catastrophic consequences on a global scale over the next few decades. But they also reflect a more overt steering of STI efforts at least those funded by the public purse to meet explicit political goals.
The aim is to rejuvenate the European research area (ERA), an overt political project, which, since its adoption a decade ago, has yet to meet the expectatiion of European policy-makers.
It is hoped that the agreement and articulation of grand challenges at the EU level will mobilise Member States to better synchronise their STI policy instruments,
thereby contributing to the realisation of a fully fledged ERA. However, these efforts face many practical and conceptuua hurdles.
Longer-term time horizons to be introduced more expliciitl into shorter-term policy agendas and business planning practices.
this paper starts (Section 2) by presenting the basic elements of innovation and the need for an operational agenda that takes into consideration a context-sensitive approach required to address specific challenges.
Some essentials If innovation is to contribute to solving some of the grand challenges of our time,
Innovation system analysis often takes as its starting point the system's structure. It is here that innovation system failures that demand policy attention tend to be identified,
This makes them an essential starting point in efforts to set in motion virtuous cycles of transformative change directed at grand challenges.
Indeed, right at the outset, a more transformative innovattio sets a responsibility to catalyse and facilitate more effective public dialogue beyond the usual suspects by engaging new entrants, small business, wider stakeholders and civil society.
Addressing grand challenges is at the core of EU policies for research and innovation as illustrated by the latest EU strategic policy documents.
The new instruments also acknowledge the importance of long-term time horizons to be introduced more expliciitl into shorter-term policy agendas
See<http://www. era. gv. at/space/11442/directory/19999/doc/21643. html>accessed Dec 2011.11.
References Acheson, H.,Amanatidou, E. and Boekholt, P. 2007)‘ Optimising research programmes and priorities',Report of the ERA Expert Group, EUR 23324.
time for the EU to meet global challenges',EUR 24364 EN. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European union.<
2010)‘ The impact of European policy on the development of the ERA in the areas relevant to environmennt'Draft Final Report.
The categories of grand challenges identified by theeuropean Research area (ERA) Rationales Expert Group (European commission 2008) provide one typology of transformations.
economic and political to social (pervasive and quick to diffuse with longer term effects emerging over time)
but less obvious ways over time (Ko nno la et al. 2012a). At the same time, the capacity to engineer
individual FTA projects or programmes of limited duration and with targeted objectives;.dedicated FTA units providing continuous input to their embedding or mother organisations;.
Setting up dedicated and temporary FTA projects or programmes has been a very common model over the past two decades.
The rationales, time horizons and capabilities of the clients and users determine to a large extent what types of results are taken up or not.
The institutionalisation of FTA provides continuity and permits the accumulation of knowledge and know-how in a single organisational unit.
which has grown over the past decade. In FTA, networks can relate to individuals, and are enabled peer-to-peer through information technology and the internet (cf.
and constitute the second main dimension. However, which of these three basic organisatioona models best fits the requirements is also a matter of the governance mode (co-existence, competition, cooperattio or integration)
By looking into the latest developments in how FTA systems understood as combination of governance modes
2011) address the importance of engaging stakeholders in foresight exercises from the very beginning in order to improve support for policy options and their implications.
Early warning of disruptive events and scientific/technological breakthrough and their likely impacts in scope and time.
or are recognised too late, crises are inevitable. Emerging shortages of food, water and other resources, due to demographic trends and human activities, will have far reaching economic and social consequences,
and adapt these in view of the latest world developments. In this context, it is imperative that foresight initiatives to address global challenges are carried out at regular intervals to build a common understanding of current situatiion
building a continuous and shared approach to understand the present, exploring alternative futures and shaping the direction to follow, coupled with an evaluation of
2008)‘ Challenging Europe's Research Rationales for the European research area (ERA)',Report of the ERA Expert Group, EUR 23326 EN.
<http://ec. europa. eu/research/era/pdf/eg7-era-rationales-final-report en. pdf>accessed 15 dec 2011.
michael. keenan@oecd. org Over the coming decades, science will play a key role in society's response to emerging global‘grand challenges'.
Longer-term perspectives must also be incorporated to reflect the time horizons of key global challenges
which has explored how two decades hence international collaboration in science could foster progress in science and address global challenges.
The purpose of its current foresight exercise is to explore the potential development of international science over the next two decades in a changing economic, social, political and environmental context.
and the scope for using foresight to further international science cooperation in the future. 2. The past and the present of international science cooperation Before thinking about the futures of international science cooperation,
it is essential to appreciate something of the past and the present. In this section, a short‘potted'history of international science cooperation since the Second world war is provided,
followed by a snapshot of the current landscape. 2. 1 A short history of international science cooperation Large-scale international science cooperation really began after the Second world war
This IGY heralded a new era in collaborative earth sciences research. Taking place at Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.
'167 the height of the Cold war, it demonstrated that even during tense political times scientists from around the world could work together for the betterment of society.
and the results generated. 3. 1 Scoping the exercise's design A number of important decisions were taken at the outset by ICSU regarding the scope and scale of the exercise.
a scenario approach was preferred from the outset, allowing for exploration of possible futures and for articulation of a visionary‘success scenario'..
it was recognised from the outset that the various results generated would likely be useful to other organisations, particularly the ICSU members, in their own strategy processes..
The project was supported by a project officer in the ICSU Secretariat who was able to give about one-third of his working time
This approach was especially important in the first phase where numerous existing project meetings were able to set aside an hour
Time horizon: The time horizon of the foresight exercise had to be beyond ICSU's usual planning horizons of 5 10 years.
The question was by how much longer. Many of the grand challenges that ICSU activities are focused upon,
particularly climate change, involve change over relatively long time periods measured at least in decades. But this is too long for an exercise that is focused on organisational agility and a vision for international science cooperatiion Given the relative trade-offs,
the exercise settled for a 20-year time horizon, which happens to coincide with the centenary of the founding of ICSU in 1931.
and scale over the coming two decades as they were in the previous and there is certainly reason to believe that some major disruptions lay ahead in the medium term,
Duration: Given available resources and the scope of the exercise, it was thought at the outset that the exercise would take about 12 8 months to complete from start to finish.
This would give sufficient time for the project's final results to be generated and fed into the new round of strategic planning.
This timetaabl was compromised, however, by delays due to changes in key staff. As a consequence, the results generated in the later stages of the project (essentially the visionary success scenario) have shaped perhaps not ICSU's new strategic plan to the degree that was planned originally
though the intermediate products, such as forecasts around key drivers of change, were used extensively. 3. 2 The three phases of ICSU foresight The foresight exercise entailed three phases as follows:.
from oceans to ecosysteem to the cryosphere and atmosphere, the forecasts are consistent in suggesting broad changes with major impacts on society over the coming two decades..
there is a high degree of certainty that these will occur over the next two decades, probably in several fields..
The second selected axis was based on the‘science and society'driver. At one end of this axis
The present range of options extends from market-based economies to stronger developmental state intervention to communism,
but new systems may develop over the coming two decades, possibly informed by greater consideration of the environment.
The last decade has seen significant changes in the nature of the scientific record. The move to open-access publishing is likely to have a number of impacts, in particular,
The resulting success scenario has a 20-year time horizon outlining the contours of a desirable state of international cooperation in science in 2031 and ICSU's role in its achievement.
only its general contours are presented in Box 2. Through‘backcasting'from the future success scenario of 2031 to the present day,
and articulating the challenges to be faced by international science cooperation over the coming decades. The new plan also includes commitments to engage the ICSU memberrshi in continuing foresight analysis
The internal impacts of the success scenario are less certain at the time of writing,
though the present authors have not found other examples that focus on mechanisms for internatiiona science collaboration.
These are all qualities that that can benefit international science cooperation as it seeks to address many of the grand challenges of our time.
International Cooperation in Science and Technology',report of the ERA Expert Group 5, Directorate-General for Research, EUR 23325 EN.
2011)‘ iknow ERA Toolkit: Applications of Wild Cards and Weak signals to the Grand challenges and Thematic Priorities of the European research area'.
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