Early models saw innovation processes as a linear sequence of functional activities distinguishing only between technology push
For decades the dominant definition of innovation as new products and processes that are introduced to the market combined with the common understanding of companies as the main actors in this process was questioned hardly ever.
and there would be no time lag, thanks to real time investigation. Fig. 2. Amplification example: web-extracted innovation. 456 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Fig. 3. Screenshot from the INFU web-based
This image seemed to foster the idea of time consuming and slow participative processes. This interpretation did not correspondwith the intention of the project team and the comprehensive description of the vision.
Centralised-Distributed Innovation continuity Permanent-Occasional Innovation acessibility Free-Private Innovation tangibility Tangible-Intangible Innovation motivation Profit/Benefit-Normative/Mission
The consideration of very diverse perspectives can be seen as an important starting point for the assessment of systemic change.
which is needed to envisage structural transformation challenging today's paradigms. 4. Conclusions As INFU was being finalised at the time of writing it is too early to assess the usefulness or even the impact of its findings in a reliable manner.
and fostered the integration of diverse perspectives not only at the beginning but throughout the project.
A Practitioner's Guide to Developing and Using Scenarios to Direct Strategy in Today's Uncertain Times, Thomson Southwestern, Mason, Ohio, 2006.33 J. Buur, B. Matthews, Participatory innovation, Int
Future-oriented Innovation Foresight Grand challenges Disruptive Transformations When circumstances become more turbulent it is often the case that an era is regarded retrospectively as one of calm
and continuity even if it were perceived not so at the time. In the current less stable economic, political and social environment it is possible to apply such a lens to the preceding two or three decades.
This essay reflects on the implications for the practice of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) 1 of the current period of instability and discontinuity.
The second powerful strand has been a package of measures designed to reinforce research business linkages,
and more by a process of geological accretion where the structures and policy styles of earlier decades continue, perhaps with some diminution,
but a counter hypothesis would suggest that deeply embedded institutions are equipped better to fight for survival (one thinks of the persistence of at best partially-reformed institutions from the Soviet-dominated era in some post-transition countries).
most noticeably but by no means exclusively at European level where societal challenges such as health, energy and food security, transport, climate and resources and innovative and secure societies became first a part of the ERA debate 10 and subsequently a central
the ensuing simplification would render ineffective from the start the efforts being made to address it.
or at a single point in time and hence variety of approach remains beneficial Alignment is a more realistic objective.
But there are shared issues with the wider discipline of evaluation in dealing with time-lag between action
and effect and in seeking enough continuity to create the opportunity to apply lessons from previous experiences.
This Special issue, like many compendia arising out of a professional conference, offers a sample of the state of the art at a particular point in time.
''The time it has taken to edit and finalize this Special issue reflects the difficulty of this kind of ex-post process and the far-flung and changing circumstances of its authors and editors.
Of course the‘‘story''of FTA over the last decade can be presented in many ways ours is only one of many possible versions,
Starting with the very first FTA conferences, participants have signalled their concern that an excessive disparity of interests, theoretical starting points,
But as time went on the consistent presence of heterogeneous perspectives and the difficulty of making sense of this continued diversity of the FTA voices made another case.
While the technology assessment crowd and the small but regularly present business oriented strategy practitioners voiced worries about the‘‘scientific''legitimacy and practical effectiveness of the at times open ended and exploratory nature of thinking about the future.
Certainly, over time the proportion of papers and discussions preoccupied with forecasting and deterministic roadmapping approaches to the future gave way to a growing awareness and acceptance of other methods,
A second related weakness is signalled by the difficulty of making a credible case for the links between the case studies and the associated methodologies.
Taking the proposition that the future only exists as anticipation as a starting point and that efforts to‘‘use the future''can be understood better by considering the different nature
types of planning, meaning of time, and tolerance for deviant ideas. The first implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to a society's view on planning in general.
Conversely, strategic planning presupposes a distancing from the certainties (and known uncertainties) of the past and a significant amount of tolerance for new uncertainties.
The second implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to the meaning of time
According to Hofstede, the uncertainty avoidance dimension impacts the question of‘‘how a society reacts on the fact that time only runs one way
In countries such as France and Japan with a high uncertainty avoidance indexes, time and the future are considered to be something that should be mastered and exploited.
time is merely a framework for orientation rather than something to be mastered. Adaption to upcoming changes might be considered more important in these countries.
This late adoption may be due to several reasons. First, during the 1970s, Denmark had some rather negative experiences with prospective planning.
Finally, for several decades, the Danish Board of Technology (DBT) has played an active and internationally recognised role in the political and wider public debate that concerns the potential and consequences of science and technology.
But this context has changed during the recent decade. Based on the Danish Globalisation Strategy from 2005, public expenditures on R&d have increased.
this context has changed during recent decades with increased national R&d budgets and the establishment of a strategic research council.
it must be noted that over several decades, Denmark has carried out foresight-like processes and strategic planning within individual sectors.
Research2015 aimed to set priorities for the government's strategic research programme or at least, parts of this programme. 4. 1. The government's Globalisation Strategy In the spring of 2005,
The first meeting was a kickoff meeting, and the following three meetings discussed the Grand challenges that Denmark faces.
Kickoff Conference of the European foresight Platform EFP, 14/15 June, Vienna, 2010, Available: http://www. foresight-platform. eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Key-messages-EFP-Conference-FINAL3-100623. pdf (accessed 20.12.11)( Online.
Motives behind the selection of foresight methods, the timing involved in using insights from foresight studies in strategic policy-making processes, the added value of foresight methods,
including all of its functions, with a time horizon of at least 10 years. At the local level, a document analysis was combined with interviews with policymakers.
Apparently, when the time to make a decision comes closer, other issues and (political) interests start playing a role as well.
On the one hand, the long lead time of strategy processes makes the use of foresight methods necessary. On the other hand, this leads to a certain level of disappointment, due to a lack of short-term implications.
which was not how they were applied in most case studies (with the exception of The hague), because of a lack of time or expertise.
When this buy in happens too late in the process, there is less internal support, and policy-makers and politicians will not experience the added value of the scenario analysis.
To summarise, national level policy-makers seem to be equipped better to conduct foresight studies than their counterparts at the local level. 3. 5. 2. Timing of the foresight study Both at the local and national level,
policy-makers indicated they consider the timing of a future study to be a crucial success factor
The optimal timing is related to the reason for conducting a future study. If it is to increase awareness about the future
the timing of the scenarios will be compared different to a situation where the motive is to test policies by means of scenarios (the latter will take place at a later stage in the policy process).
Most local policy-makers indicated that the foresight process took more time than they initially expected. This was due, in part, to the longer duration of the development phase,
particularly the time needed to generate support and commitment among policy-makers (and politicians). Consequently, there was less time to learn from the foresight study in a strategic 1 Particular issues arise in the case of quantitative forecasting models,
which are perceived often as black boxes by policy-makers. In these cases, contradictory information may indeed emerge as a consequence of different assumptions across models.
N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 23 way. Policy-makers were disappointed as a result of this,
the duration of the process does not appear to be a major issue. Initiating new foresight processes just before a new Minister
or Secretary is installed is seen as a good moment, because as a result civil servants are prepared well to discuss the new policies with the new Ministers and Secretaries.
local policy-makers mentioned that managerial commitment from the start of a future exploration trajectory is a crucial success factor
when it comes to applying the results of an analysis. Expectations need to be managed at the beginning and throughout the foresight study,
In appropriate timing of the foresight study has been deemed a factor contributing to the failure to apply the insights of a foresight study.
if they are fully in step with the policy-making process, in terms of their timing, cultural compatibility and usability.
timing and institutional constraints. Section 6 summarises the main conclusions. 2. Global foresight design and management The design and management of global foresight projects,
Along the same line, the ways in which workable agreements will be achieved should be prepared from the outset building upon shared understanding as well as collective and creative knowledge.
and behavioural aspects should be done in a way that is clear and coherent from the beginning of an endeavour
can provide a relevant starting point. 2. 4. A‘glocal'impact orientation Many researchers specialised in international management 20,21 have argued for‘glocalization'as the transformation of global and local interests into a new
which takes time and resources. Third, informal networks are developed usually by those in the front line or carrying out the daily work,
and expectations To kickoff the project-design together with consortia partners most of the initial debate centred on methodological aspects.
and which reduce the time between engaging with end users and delivering a solution. Sustainable manufacturing possible due to cultural change of individuals and corporations supported by the enforcement of rules
These start from the implementation of the identified research topics and supporting actions between 2011 and 2013
From the outset the initial design was geared towards taking into account the specificity of context and intentions when identifying guiding questions (i e. intended impacts and objectives), determining participants (i e. type and level of stakeholders'participation),
and has proved useful to kickoff discussions with diverse stakeholders with different or no understanding of foresight.
and the communication procedures had been clarified to all from the outset, managing interactions, especially between partners, required more attention.
JRCIPPT proposed a different approach than the one decided at the kickoff meeting: each selected snapshot would be developed by different teams with support from JRC-IPTS.
and stakeholders the second planned workshop was devoted to develop a common vision. Here, although JRC-IPTS was facilitating and giving direction to the discussions,
During the kickoff meeting the JRC-IPTS framework (Fig. 1) was used to present different alternatives to achieve the intended impacts,
time for the EU to meet global challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.2 L. Y. Tang, Q. Shen, Factors affecting effectiveness and efficiency of analysing stakeholders
Proceedings from the IMS2020 Summer School o Sustainable Manufacturing, 26 28 may 2010, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 2010.28 E. Dall, C. Cagnin, Regional foresight a case
The IMS Summer School Manufacturing Strategy First Edition 2010: Sustainable Manufacturing, 2010.34 D. Klimkeit, Organizational context and collaboration on international projects:
Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe and Karlsruhe Institute of technology, Karlsruhe, Germany Received 29 february 2008 Introduction The contributions included in this special issue build on material presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
as contribution towards the establishment of common research policy (i e. the so-called European research area (ERA). 3 This contribution refers to a very specific project
http://ec. europa. eu/research/era/index en. html. 2 http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/intro. html. 458 F
However, a review of recent works on the future of higher education shows that the approaches implemented present three major shortcomings:(
Moscow 101000, Russia 1. Introduction Over the last decade, scholars, policy makers and practitioners from various fields have witnessed
The nature of innovation in this new era is fundamentally different from the earlier technology push
Moreover, traditional user research methods tend to be focused on the‘here and now'and in most cases,
Although it is unknown in the present who the future users of a technology or product will be,
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 41 IF aims to go beyond the‘here and now 'and is situated at the intersection of Foresight, user/market research and humancenntre product design.
They represent two different approaches for going beyond the‘here and now'in the context of innovation research. 3. Illustrations from two empirical case-studies 3. 1. Study 1:
which were not possible at the time of the study (the questions can be found in the appendix).
The second column‘market potential+5y'indicates the experts'mean estimated potential five years from the moment of surveying (end 2014.
and the last column‘implemented 5y'indicates the number of respondents that thinks this idea will be implemented effectively in five years'time.
but the majority of the experts see them implemented within five years'time anyway. The open source, surveillance and smart home ideas can be considered as the most innovative ideas
The starting point for this study was the observation that this very popular medium has been the subject of rapid technological evolution over the last few years.
Belgium, at the time of the research. K. De Moor et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 43 the TV AUDIENCE, this simplicity is however under pressure.
In this study, we therefore involved different types of users in an inclusive process to reflect on possible, probable and/or preferable‘TV experiences of the future (initial time horizon:
therefore serve as a starting point for empirically grounded personas 27.3.2.1.3. Phase 3. In the third and last research phase,
The probe consisted of seven small assignments/questions, one for each day in a week. On day 1
and included a DVD with video sequences and scents matching those sequences. Day 3 focused on holographic TV.
Participants were asked to select adjectives from a list and to match them with pictures of different locations in
a review of the literature on current television viewing practices and time spending patterns confirmed the observation that TV is still predominantly a lean back medium.
and although viewers have the opportunity to watch content‘a la carte',anywhere, any time and anyhow,
'The PP2 records a lot of content matching personal interests on the digital recorder and watches it at a convenient time.
This persona is aware of the possibilities with regard to time shifting and on-demand viewing, but does not use them.
but this persona needs time to gradually get used to the new functionalities. The purchase was influenced largely by others in the immediate environment of the NP3.
In both studies, information and intelligence concerning real experiences, practices and visions from a user perspective served as starting points.
IF aims to go beyond the dominant‘here and now'focus in traditional user research and draws on participation and inclusion of different types of users (not only experts).
such as the objectives of an exercise, time and budget, coverage and time horizon. Secondly, it would be relevant to further investigate the link between Innovation Foresight
Proceedings Participatory Design Conference, 2008, pp. 186 189.14 J. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technological forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 268
and change over time (Annex 1). The authors thus developed a new PMS to tackle these limitations,
and its implementation across a firm value chain does not allow the whole system to become flexible and adaptive over time.
when used in conjunction with other models such as the BSC, the Quality Function Deployment 26 and the GBN method 27.
will behave or evolve over time. Moreover, the scenario development process should become an important contribution to organisational learning 28.
the first a monitoring and control circuit (single loop) and the second a learning circuit (double loop.
nor the shaping of a shared vision to be developed. 3. 2. An example from the higher education sector 3. 2. 1. Rationale The second case focused on a higher education institution that was pursuing a management model focused on efficiency standards for sustainability and continuity in the long run.
Moreover, working laws restricted the possibilities of continuity during the holiday's period. Through the Management of Strategic Initiatives (step 5 phase 3) the institution was able to properly map the university processes
These were generated through the development of strategy maps (phase 2), in conjunction with the city of Floriano'polis, SC, Brazil and relevant stakeholders,
This means that there is a need to establish clear priorities with deadlines and to enable the community to monitor success during the next five years.
and to develop an action plan to monitor the achievement of the agreed vision as well as enable adaptation over time. 3. 4. Limitations of the proposed system
and the overall system to become adaptive over time. The limitations of BSC which were still not effectively addressed by the proposed system,
(i e. value chain) and individuals to become adaptive over time. Finally, embedding FTA within the system proposed shall enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
which nowadays is referred to as a strategy map 57 61 System dynamics 61 65 In order to analyse the cause and effect relationships between measures,
36,37 Skandia Navigator 71 75 The balanced scorecard does not take into account the interaction between the processes of strategy development and implementation 1, 69 Proposed system Marinho and Cagnin (present paper, forthcoming
41 (2000) 29 40.3 A. Raps, Implementing strategy, Strategic Finance June (2004) 49 54.4 H. Mintzberg, The fall and rise of strategic planning, Harvard Business Review
Using Quality, Time, and Performance Measurements to Chart Your Company's Future, American Management Association, New york, 1993.22 U s. Bititci, A s. Carrie, L. Mcdevitt, Integrated performance measurement systems:
past, present and future, in: Performance Measurement Conference, Cambridge, 2000.31 S. Tonchia, Linking performance measurement system to strategic and organizational choices, International Journal of Business Performance 2 (2000) 15
Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010, http://dx. doi. org/10.2791/4223eur 24364 EN, ISSN 1018
. Since the connection between the different generations of innovation processes and futures research can be established for the past,
This translates into the firm's aim at surviving over time and sustaining or gaining a competitive advantage over competitors.
Dynamic capabilities research shows that strategic resources lose their value over time 29. Thus, firms need to have innovative capabilities
The last two decades have seen an increase in collaborations between different organizations driven by at least five trends in corporate innovation:
and as an instrument to increase the number of new innovations the second of the key roles described above.
The project was intended to increase the understanding of the US car market by having managers live with ordinary American families for a certain time
data collection instruments included access to key documents, such as reports, internal documents, presentations and meeting minutes and observations through active participation within the organizations and, to some extent, in the build up Phase in the WINN
and performance. 2. A process model that guides the organization toward the envisioned future. 3. The ongoing innovation processes together constitute a transition path that leads the organization from the present to the future. 4. The inner component leadership
In one case the different concepts might be present but not explicitly formalized, and in another the concepts might indeed be present
time-limited projects, nonrecurring activity) and evaluate the scope of the activities, i e.,, contributors and beneficiaries of the activities (open network, closed network, contract-based partnerships or single organizations.
and communication technology. 5 The aim of pooling innovation activities in the ICT market was based on three considerations at the time of its foundation:(
, becoming the leader in ICT innovation) as stated by the network partners emerges as the starting point for the network.
The futures research activities at EICT have in common that they are applied usually on a project basis. Projects are set up with explicit definitions of time, scope and desired results.
EIT ICT Labs The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) is the latest attempt of the European commission (EC) to increase European innovation performance.
In 2008, the European parliament and Council established the EIT as an independent agency in the EU. In the summer of 2009,
Image of the future vision The starting point of the EIT ICT Labs was the vision of an integrated institute.
Later, both, the KIC's vision and strategy were in conjunction with the revision of the EIT's SIA.
Second, pressure from the top management level of RWS to present short-term results in addition to conceptual work about possible future developments created a kind of‘‘the urgent drives out the important''atmosphere as Henri Kissinger put it.
Others revealed that they are unsure to this moment how to effectively reintegrate information from the network in internal processes (outside-in.
time-limited project and nonrecurring, singular activity. When comparing the three cases based on the earlier descriptions
the analysis implicates that networked foresight activities are more likely to be activities with a certain degree of continuity, i e.,
) 1051 1067.38 H. Chesbrough, The era of open innovation, Sloan Management Review 44 (2003) 35 41.39 T. Heger, R. Rohrbeck, Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration
a new start for the Lisbon strategy, in: Communication from Commission President Barroso (COM 2005), 2005.52 EIT ICT Labs, European Institute of Innovation and Technology:
These functions were an important outcome of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis held in 2006.
Paper presennte at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 Septembbe 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain
identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Victor van Rij Over the past decade, horizon scanning has been recognised as part of forward-looking government processes in a number of industrialised countries.
In business management the term environnmenta scanning is used to refer to the systematic observation of developments that present either threats or opportunities for the business.
and underlying values of the actor (s). No particular time frame (try to look forward as far as we can see or imagine),
whether and how phenomena that were observed at an earlier stage are developiin over time. Participation and involvement of societal and government stakeholders,
in March 2007 and a second in October 2007. The possible use of the horizon scan data at the European commission (EC) level was discussed in interviews with representattive of different directorates within the EC.
but also in different other societal value dimensions (health, longevity, human rights, social cohesion, law-based democratic society, international relations etc.).
where the starting point is a client (for example, a government departmeent reflecting on its strategic direction or policy.
The UK effort has focused on drafting the issue papers in such a way that they present a balanced synthesis of the sources scanned (and referenced),
quality of life, ecological quality (survival, health, longevity of (future) citizeens health of ecosystems; social dimension; economic financial dimension:
economic quality (basis for other dimensions but also welfare creatiion luxury, leisure, distribution of wealth) social quality (social cohesion in the present and in the future, eliminating poverty, mental health of (futuure citizens;
An important tool of these sector counciil was participative foresight that developed over time and was used to influence decision-makers in government, research and society in a futureorieente setting.
For the OECD DASTI horizon scan it was clear from the beginning that the results of the scan would be used as an important input for the process of priorittisin new research themes for the Danish fouryeea cycle of the research funding councils
and worldwide lack of governmentta financial control) 17 became reality within a very short time frame highlights the value of referring to individual scan issues,
to clarify the picture of the most relevant relationnship in a shared process (with the involvement of decision-makers) on a much earlier moment than usual
the embedding in an adaptive foresight framework and the implementation of a real-time Delphi which lead to interesting methodological lessons.
) Moreover, rather than specifying all stages of the methodology in full detaai at the outset, a stepwise approach was allowed followwed It new insights on the nature of potentially disruptive changes,
In other words, the methodological details were adjusste in‘real-time'depending on the knowledge generated in the course of the process.
and media industries (where the value of the content is linked closely to its accuracy and timeliness).
and heterogeeneou it was necessary from the outset to focus on a sub-set of activities most likely to be impacted by ICT innovation
The second involves the emergeenc of proprietary and convergent platforms for content selection and distribution.
constantly look for means to maintain social relationships real-time, wherever they are. In this context, customer expectations need to be managed carefully for a company to remain successful
The EPIS-Delphi was implemented as an internetbaase real-time Delphi (RT Delphi)( Gordon and Pease, 2006;
and the open issue of the likely development and importtanc of virtual worlds (like Second Life) and multiplayer online games (like World of Warcraft.
The projeec team completed a full-blown scenario descriptiio with the input from all participants after the workshop because of time constraints.
which are characterised by a decline in national identities but the persistence of regional differences;
for instance by adding a scenario development phase late on in the project. This becaam necessary because the range of possible futures turned out to be broader than was expected initially.
which they themselves may not be willing to accept at the outset. In other words, one has to find the balance between the‘feasibility'and‘surprise'dimensions,
we can conclude that it is unrealistti to have fixed a framework from the outset when dealing with a sector in flux and where uncertainties are so high that even experts have trouble imagining impacts (as the strong discrepancies in trend impact assessments show).
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