Socio-demographic, economic and technological changes were taking place at a fast speed with nonlinear patterns
the legal framework, the technology base and the management skills. This conceptual model may vary a lot from one country to other.
Likewise, several articles by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies have drawn attention to the potential of territorial foresight for decision making at the regional level (IPTS
Nowadays, GIS technology provides a wide array of functionalities to display alphanumeric data on a digital map.
This axis included all critical uncertainties regarding the abundance or scarcity of technological, economic, human, institutional, and natural resources.
Public and private agents are fully aware of the need for sustainable development due to a lack of response by the economic and technological realm.
Forlearn Online Guide (n d.)and Millennium Project (n d.))shows that most scenarios exercises conclude with a description of the geopolitical, economic, societal and technological contexts.
frequent disputes between political, social and economic stakeholders hinder consensus. Horizontal elements such as legislation, technology and management are weak in the first stages of the planning stages,
B Modify mobility patterns by incorporating technological and energy innovations. B Modernize public administration so that it can implement an advanced, transparent governance model.
because it feels confident that new technologies will solve most environmental threats. In this context, there is a need for strict policies
Figure 9 Spatial implications of Scenario B (2025) PAGE 330 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 B Pursue a massive incorporation of new technologies into public administration to improve
B The development model will have to be integrated more, more participatory, more coordinated, more technology-friendly,
B The urban planning processes will have to incorporate breakthrough innovations and subsequently, be totally reengineered. B The transformation of the planning process will require reciprocal changes in the legal framework and the governance model.
Foresight for Regional development Network (2001), Practical Guide to Regional foresight, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Sevilla.
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (2001),‘Special issue on foresight and regional development'',The IPTS Report No. 59, pp. 1-47.
It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight, forecasting and technology assessmentmethods and tools to the legal sphere.
and risk, neglecting as a consequence the use of forecasting techniques, foresight methods and technology assessment procedures.
), Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain. The views expressed in this article are purely those of the author
forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools to the legal sphere. 2. Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)‘‘Future-oriented technology analysis''(FTA) was created the term to encompass the different tools
and in some cases shape technological futures 2. It was used first by the European commission's (EC) Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) as a common umbrella term for technology foresight
, technology forecasting and technology assessment 3. The JRC-IPTS, through the FTA overarching concept and a series of sponsored biennial seminars 4,
technology forecasting and technology assessment communities, along with the broader field of future studies) have come together to discuss
''As a comprehensive term, FTA is anchored firmly‘‘in the relation between science and technology on the one hand,
and social needs on the other''(Cagnin and Keenan, 2008), acknowledging thus the co-evolution of science and technology (S&t) together with society in their approach and work.
and shape technological futures (Rader and Porter, 2008). In addition, this particular community of scholars and practitioners has managed also to provide a collective definition of FTA,
This has been mainly due to the increasing importance of technological and organisational innovation; the development of service economies;
which aimed to describe specific situations and actions in forthcoming technological worlds. These scenarios were used
They thus constituted isolated and factual narratives of a future technological world, which aimed to alert the policy maker to the legal implications of such prospective scenarios.
a modelling system with the ambitious plan of turning massive amounts of data into knowledge and technological progress.
the police have turned to new technologies to improve their efficiency, using ICT to optimize their increasingly scarce and limited resources,
Based on comprehensive computer statistics, technology has allowed the law enforcement community to rapidly identify and address crime hot spots,
A concrete example of a predictive policing technology can be found in Compstat, a computerized crime mapping system developed by NYPD in 1993
3. These various tools and strategies differ according to the range of technology targeted, the time horizon span, their goals and outcomes, etc.
For a clarification on the differences and similarities among the wide array of terms, methods and approaches that are included in the umbrella term of FTA, such as technology forecasting, technology assessment, roadmapping, technology foresight,
For the distinction between technology assessment, foresight and technology forecasting made by the European Science and Technology observatory Network (ESTO), see Rader (2001).
The latter was revised, moreover in Rader (2001, p. 4); and revised in Tu bke et al. 2001):
Technological Analysis and Strategic management vol. 20 (3; Technological forecasting and Social Change, vol. 72 (9; as well as to the publication of the book Cagnin et al.
and prioritizing the future areas of regulation. 6. These were the cases of the future-oriented technology assessment exercises conducted during the period 1974-1995 by the US Office of Technology assessment (OTA).
but on the other side of the Atlantic, we currently have the example of the Scientific Technology Options assessment (STOA),
which advises the European parliament in policy issues involving scientific and technological options. Recurring again to Johnston's (2008) observations,
‘‘t he studies for the STOA panel of the European parliament have served to pinpoint critical aspects of technologies and their application
''Regarding technology assessment, it is interesting to note that it‘‘originally emerged with the aim of contributing to the balance of power between the legislative and executive branches of government,
but has moved increasingly towards providing knowledge suitable for actively shaping technology'',in Rader and Porter (2008).
and analyse the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical issues related to identity, privacy and security in the forecasted
and to contribute to the technologies and infrastructures needed. See Rannenberg et al. 2009). ) 13. For a detailed analysis of those trends, uncertainties, scenarios (including its likely triggers),
For an overview of data mining technologies and their use for competitive advantages, see Porter and Cunningham (2005.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville. Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques:
), Tech Mining: Exploiting New technologies for Competitive advantage, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ. Rader, M. 2001),‘Monitoring of technology assessment activities'',report by the European Science and Technology observatory Network, Seville.
Rader, M. and Porter, A l. 2008),‘Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study types'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R
. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin. Rannenberg, K.,Royer, D. and Deuker, A. 2009), The Future of Identity in the Information society:
About the author Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade is a Scientific Officer at the Information society Unit of the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European commission's Joint research Centre.
and technology (including biotechnology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, genetics and genomics, digital environments, ambient intelligence), data protection and privacy law, intellectual property, philosophy of law and legal theory.
In 2009 he co-edited and published Law and Technology: Looking into the Future Selected Essays.
Assessing emerging technologies Methodological challenges and the case of nanotechnologies Torsten Fleischer*,Michael Decker, Ulrich Fiedeler Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Gmbh, P. O. B
accepted 2 october 2004 Abstract Technology assessment reflecting on R&d and technological trends in the area of nanotechnology and its implications is confronted with the problem that most scientific endeavours of nanotechnology can be allocated to basic research
while most of the technological visions related to nanotechnology are far (N10 years) in the future. Since technology assessment has to integrate the socioeconomic context of a technical product
in order to be comprehensive, in the case of nanotechnology a preparing step is necessary which connects the ongoing basic research with the visions communicated either by the scientist themselves or by the media.
In this paper we propose to adapt the well known tool droadmappingt to contribute to the solution of this problem.
Science and technology roadmapping; Technology assessment; Nanotechnology 1. Introduction Emerging technologies pose considerable challenges for dclassicalt technology assessment (TA.
If TA focuses on the outcomes or impacts of a technology, it can be performed only at later stages of technology development
when societal implications can easily be identified and determined. On the 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.10.005*Corresponding author. Tel.:++49 7247 824571; fax:++49 7247 824806. E-mail address:
Torsten. Fleischer@itas. fzk. de (T. Fleischer. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 other hand, decision support and policy making require information on the potential consequences of the introduction of new technologies before they are implemented widely,
i e. at early stages of their development when the direction of the innovation process already can be influenced
The assessment of emerging technologies implies the introduction of new methods into the toolkit of the TA practitioner.
and tested. 2. Assessment of emerging technologies changing framework and new questions Technology assessment (TA) is a scientific,
interactive and communicative process with the aim to contribute to the public and political opinion forming on science and technology related societal aspects 1 like exploitation of potential, dealing with secondary effects,
and technological risks, overcoming problems of legitimacy and technology conflicts. It produces knowledge, orientation and procedures to deal with societal challenges in coping with technology.
Over the last years, the landscape for Technology assessment has changed significantly. TA has started with the investigation of large complex technologies (conventional or nuclear energy technologies, aerospace technologies...
which were developed and deployed with significant participation of national governments for dcustomerst in politics like parliaments or administrations.
During the last years, the technological focus has shifted somewhat towards rather small, widely distributed (some would say decentralised) technologies where the impacts arise rather from a single component itself but from the large number of components and their widespread application,
from the new type of complexity and interdependence that these components form when they are interacting,
and from the change in economic and societal patterns initiated by the almost ubiquitous usage of these technologies.
Some technologies to be investigated are so-called denabling technologiest. They are often crucial technological prerequisites for other technologies
products and processes which are expected to impact existing technologies by expanding their usefulness, to enable new technological approaches
and to trigger wider applications in a number of industries. Enabling technologies often have no direct easily recognisable connection with applications
which makes it difficult to even determine relevant impact categories. Therefore it is necessary to perform intermediate analysis steps to connect these technologies to applications or visions for their integration in application technologies or products.
Together with the new kinds of technologies to be assessed, the role of governments or politics as important players in the innovation process has changed.
First there is a significant shift away from a direct governmental participation in the innovation process towards a concentration of national governments on the shaping of framework conditions for innovation.
This is due to many reasons: Globalisation has altered the roles and influence of national policies and industries, political paradigms have changed, EU legislation and international competition leave less room for direct governmental activities in many technological fields.
In the last years, in many countries due to economic and social pressures there is a shift of focus towards technologies that stimulate
or support economic growth, sometimes corresponding with the requirement to develop technologies that contribute to sustainable development (whatever the criteria for that might be).
T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1113 Most funding organisations
or contract awarders require valid, scientifically sound, knowledge-based, often quantitative, information on future developments of technology and its interaction with society before they are implemented widely,
i e. at early stages of their development when the direction of the innovation process already can be influenced.
But most questions about the relevant consequences and options to influence it arise in the later phases of the innovation process, from the diffusion to the market, the use of technology and its disposal.
This holds considerable methodological challenges with respect to analysis and assessment for all emerging technologies but especially for emerging enabling technologies.
The principle of taking into account the knowledge about presumed or probable technology impacts in decisions already at an early stage is part of the basic concept of technology assessment.
It was introduced, in its very beginning, as an early warning of technological risks and unintended consequences, later also as a tool for an early diagnosis of the chances and potential of technology.
It is perhaps not ill-founded to state that the treatment of central challenges of the sustainability discussion,
particularly the sustainability assessments of technology, is prepared by decades of experiences with technology assessments. Consideration of the long term perspective
and methodical approaches of technology assessment for sustainability assessments of technology 2. The requirements on sustainability assessments and their consideration in decision-making represent until now unknown degree of methodical challenges even with regard to very ambitious concepts of technology assessment,
It is no exaggeration to say that the known methodological problems of technology assessment come to a head here. 3. Nanotechnology Nanotechnology is among the most prominent emerging technologies,
they are heralded as a key technology for the 21st century. These potential innovations offer numerous benefits. There are great expectations among policymakers,
nanotechnology is a case for technology assessment. Technology assessment of nanotechnology has to deal with several methodological challenges:
First of all: Up to now it is blurred quite what in detail should be considered as dnanotechnologyt and what not. Until now, there is no definition of nanotechnology that is generally accepted in the scientific community.
Neuenahr-Ahrweiler (European Academy for the study of the consequences of scientific and technological advance) 4:
Functional systems are systems where the (technological or natural) functionality to be considered provides the criteria for defining system boundaries...
According to this definition (but also interpreting other widely used descriptions of the field), nanotechnology is neither a specific technology nor is it a definite group of technologies.
Many of the developments called dnanotechnologyt are scientific findings and curiosities rather than R&d results close to a technological application.
What does that mean for the technology assessment of nanotechnology? The first part of the answer is rather simple:
Most activities that are considered as R&d in the field of nanotechnology are basic or applied research rather than technology development.
As so-called, denabling technologies',they are technological prerequisites for numerous innovations in many technological fields from comparatively simple technologies for every day use (like cosmetics or pigments in paints),
energy technologies or information and communication up to biotechnologies without their interdependence being always obvious at first glance.
the general methodology can be adapted from procedures that are used broadly in the assessment of conventional materials technologies.
Methods like Life cycle Analysis or Materials Flow Analysis are comparatively sharp swords in the analysis and assessment of ecological and economic impacts of new materials technologies.
These established methods are common in technology assessment and widely accepted internationally 5 . But the hopes and questions reach much further.
and the structural changes in technology, economy and society possibly initiated by them will have considerable consequences.
In this situation, is it possible to find ways to consider knowledge about the potential impacts of a technology which admittedly is gained with high uncertainty and its assessment with regard to sustainability already in early phases of technology development?
in order to identify and to strengthen positive sustainability effects, the bsustainability potentialq of technologies, and to recognise, to mitigate
The aim rather is to initiate a process of shaping of technology in which the emergence of new technologies is accompanied by mutual co-operation between technology development and impact analysis, between sustainability research and nanosciences,
and perhaps also between market research and technology assessment. Such a reflexive procedure surely would take into account the numerous demands from the debate on sustainable research and technology policies. 4. Roadmapping methodology as a tool for technology assessment of nanotechnology?
4. 1. Science and technology roadmapping a brief introduction A standard definition of roadmap or droadmappingt does not exist.
There is considerable diversity among practitioners as to what constitutes a roadmap and the roadmapping techniques employed 6. T. Fleischer et al./
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1116 The term droadmapt is used widely, starting from graphical representations of technology development paths and their application environments up to detailed and ambitious
descriptions of future technology requirements and research needs. Even in politics the term is used for implementation plans of political goals.
and apply technology roadmapping in the mid-1980s. It has become a widely used technique during the past two decades from the perspective of both individual companies and entire industries.
a bs and T (science and technology, T. F.)roadmap provides a consensus view or vision of the future S and T landscape available to decision makers.
Q 6 The probably most comprehensive overview of relevant research on and current knowledge about roadmapping, together with a critical discussion of the potential of roadmapping approaches which are applied usually to sustaining technologies to offer insights into disruptive technologies,
and/or technology. 4. 2. Roadmapping as a precursor of a TA process for specific nanotechnology applications The situation described above rather broad and largely unstructured field of investigation, mostly enabling technologies at early stages of development,
and risks and calls for technology assessment of these technologies, political requirements to orientate R&d budgets on the potential contribution of new developments to sustainable development puts some pressure on the TA practitioner.
Similar to roadmapping, there is no general methodology for technology assessment. TA projects can differ by task, subjects and questions of investigation and addressee.
or distinctions and often using varying terminology the following basic elements (1) definition of task and system (2) analysis of technology, their applications and framework (3) impact assessment (4) evaluation and development
Many activities that are considered as nanotechnology are closer to R&d for enabling technologies than they are embedded in a product (or process) development,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1117 be as specific and reliable as necessary to be the basis for a valid and sound technology assessment
and should include not only the perspectives and knowledge of the developers and proponents of a technology,
and technology roadmapping to include it as a precursor into the TA process for selected applications of nanotechnology.
(or architecture) that shows how the different technological elements fit together, interact, depend on each other or are constrained by technical (or occasionally socioeconomic) factors.
qualified estimates about technological hurdles and the degree of difficulty to overcome them and related time horizons,
and visionary applications thought up by proponents (and sometimes propagandists) of nanotechnology, about the realism and the realisation periods of these concepts as well as about the potential of competing conventional technologies.
and assessing technological dopportunity spacest for new phenomena and material properties by developing dproperty profilest that can be linked to needs derived
how the experiences with technology roadmapping in companies or industries can be adapted for our T. Fleischer et al./
and outlook The landscape for Technology assessment has changed over the last few years. Political priorities are altering
Also, the characteristics of technologies to be assessed are changing. These developments have put pressure on the TA practitioners to rethink their approaches
when TA results are expected to contribute to the sustainability assessment of emerging technologies. Nanotechnology is considered mainly as one of the technological developments to have far-reaching impacts on the industries of this century.
Nanotechnology is a clear case for technology assessment. Because of the diversity of scientific and technological approaches pursued under the umbrella of dnanotechnologyt, for TA purposes some preparatory steps are needed.
We propose an adaptation of the concept of science roadmapping and its application to selected segments of the overall field of nanotechnology.
whose results can be fed back into the scientific, technological and also societal decision-making and agenda-setting processes.
On the other hand, there is some experience with similar doubts about the potential of technology roadmapping. In the words of Robert Galvin:
and industry officials that their questioning of support for fundamental technology support is muted...Just as engineers first scoffed at them (roadmaps, T. F),
Technology assessment Methods and Impacts, Springer Heidelberg, New york, 2004. T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1120 2 T. Fleischer, A. Grunwald, Technikgestaltung fu r mehr Nachhaltigkeit Anforderungen an die Technikfolgenabscha
M. Boden, Y. Punie, M. Zappacosta, Science and technology roadmapping: from industry to public policy, IPTS Report 73 (2003.
from sustaining to disruptive technologies, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 71 (1 2)( 2004) 1 3. 9 R. Galvin, Science roadmaps, Science 280 (5365)( 1998) 803.10 A. Grunwald, Technikfolgenabscha tzung eine
Einfu hrung, Edition Sigma, Berlin, 2002.11 S. Walsh, Roadmapping a disruptive technology: a case study: the emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry, Technol.
European commission, IST Programme Future and Emerging technologies, 1999.14 G. Fernholz, Roadmaps in MEMS/MST: what do they offer
mstnews 5, 2003, pp. 42 44.15 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods, Technol.
After serving as a project manager for several technology assessment studies for the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany,
and the Office of Technology assessment at the German Parliament (TAB), he is currently heading the project group btechnology Assessment for Nanotechnologiesq at ITAS.
and studies dealing with methodological aspects of Technology assessment. Since 2003 he is a member of the scientific staff and since February 2004 deputy head of the Institute for Technology assessment and System Analysis (ITAS) at the Research centre Karlsruhe.
Ulrich Fiedeler is a Postdoc Research Associate in the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe.
He has a background in physics with emphasis in the field of semiconductors and solar cells.
At present he is working in several projects concerning technology assessment of nanotechnology. T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1121
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and shaping structural and systemic changes, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 729-734, DOI: 10.1080/09537325.2012.715475 To link to this article:
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and systemic changes A series of conferences on future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) has been organised by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European commission's Joint research Centre over the past years.
These unique conferences have brought together practitioners from three different communities of foresight, forecasting and technology assessment.
and would need to complement the technological perspective that has dominated traditionally FTA. 2 It is against the background of such transformative changes that this special issue looks at the fundamental possibilities
These invade both the qualitative and quantitative pieces of information that are joined to create outcomes for policy and management in all the STEEPV themes (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecology, Politics and Values and Norms.
This tendency is likely to increase as FTA becomes involved with technologies of great social and commercial complexity.
which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. He derives three generic lessons from the sociology of expectations
Ahlqvist, Halonen, Eerola, Kivisaari, Kohl, Koivisto, Myllyoja and Wessberg look at the role of research and technology organisations (RTOS),
How to forecast technologies that depend mainly on discontinuous advances? Guo, Ma, Porter and Huang propose an approach to address the highly uncertain dynamics of New & Emerging science &technologies (NESTS.
The authors explore how the 10-step‘Forecasting Innovation Pathways'analytical approach can be systematised through the use of Tech Mining.
while the technological and religious perspectives are created constructs by humans (Linstone 2011a). 3. It consists of four levels:
Fourth international Seville conference on futureorieente technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/JO
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Ilkka Tuomi (2012) Foresight in an unpredictable world, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 735-751, DOI:
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ranging from innovation and technology studies to a Bergsonian analysis of creative evolution, theory of autopoietti and anticipatory systems,
The paper then makes the claim that technological change can be understood as an especially human form of Bergsonian élan vital or creative flux.
Ontological unpredictability thus becomes importaan for technology analysis, foresight, and strategy, as well as for characterising the limitations of evidence-based policy-making in innovation-intensive societies and economies.
Animals, as well as technologies, are domesticated in a historical process. For ordinary human beings, what used to be a beast can one day become cattle.
Innovation and social learning in the context of the local downstream systems of meaning then become key drivers for the evolution of technology.
many technology students could easily namealexander Graham Bell as its inventor. Yet, in his patent application from 1876, Bell tells us what the telephone is about:
How can we predict the number of cattle or the impact of a new technology, when we only retrospecttivel know what we are talking about?
In mobile technology, global system for mobile communication (GSM) short messaging is created in a similar fashion.
First technology designers implement short message service (SMS) functionality with the aim of sending control, broadcast,
and technologies that effectively implement the operations that are needed to perform goal-oriented acts. A specific activity thus generates a socially shared ontology that allows problem-solving
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