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influences on future-oriented technology analysis, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 753-767, DOI: 10.1080/09537325.2012.715477 To link to this article:
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These invade both the qualitative and quantitative information co-joined to create outcomes for policy and management in all the STEEPV (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecology, Politics andvalues and Norms) themes.
and will be more so as FTA becomes involved with technologies of great social and commercial complexity.
quantitattive methods Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic (Arthur C. Clarke) 1. Introduction Is there something phoney about foresight,
In the present context, with its emphasis on science and technology, is embedded foresight in diminuendo in its corresponding social and commercial expectations?
and more broadly artefacts, can blend together across the entire STEEPV (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecology,
forecasting and technology assessment research techniques of and for their respective communities. Futures studies are omitted. Derrida's comment,
what are believed commonly to be the metaphors from foresight, forecasting and technology assessment: all have a long history and an equally long and growing catalogue of techniques to use:
and will be preceded by its scientific possibility and/or technological feasibility, even if the former is recognised not until after the event.
Historically, the focus of FTA has been on technology. Its purpose now is to set technology in the context of socioeconomic matters, ecology, politics and human values/norms of the STEEPV set.
Casti (2010) is only the most recent person to question the frequent assumption that science
and technology are the prime movers in disruptive change: here, it is assumed that they are not and nor should they be considered as such.
Transformation of quantitative data from science, technology and pseudo-science into information then plays a role, in conjunction with thesteepv constituents,
the broad range of sciences and technologies that any FTA has to be able to cope with:
FTAIS already confronted by technological convergence, not at the historic macro scale, but at the nanometre cum atomic scale, where phenomena are unfamiliar
and will face FTA with a new world of expectations of a form of social control of technology. 8. Epilogue In conclusion,
forecasting and technology assessment are construed often as theory. To search for a philosophical cum theoretical basis to underlie FTA seems to be limited of value.
and of corporate venturing to create new high technology businesses, large and small, relating to Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 767 long-term directions of change in the business environment.
He has negotiated technology licenses based on intellectual property, for business growth and business advantage. Ozcan Saritas is a Research fellow at Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR) in Manchester Business school, UK.
and strategy making with particular emphasis upon Foresight methodologies and their implementation in science, technology and social fields.
Technology analysis & Strategic management 24, no. 8: September, 817 40. Casti, J. L. 2010. Mood matters:
International Journal of Technology management 21, nos 7/8: 781 91. Loveridge, D. 2009. Foresight: The art and science of anticipating the future.
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lessons from the sociology of expectations, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 769-782, DOI: 10.1080/09537325.2012.715478 To link to this article:
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Yet, anticipaatio in science and technology is limited not to foresight, but occurs in many more informal ways.
which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. Finally, three generic lessons from the sociology of expectations are derived,
technology and innovation studies; technology road mapping; expectations of technological change; foresight; technological change and dynamics 1. Introduction While foresight has been developed into an important instrument for both firms
and policymakking the active exploration of the future is by no means a privilege of foresight methods. Anticipation occurs in many more domains, in particular, in areas of science and technology,
which are predicated on ideas of progress. Innovation studies have shown and discussed how expectations are part and parcel of all professional practices
and circulate amongst engineers, board rooms, research institutes and policy circles (Borup et al. 2006; Van Lente and Bakker 2010.
Expectations are produced, circulated, adapted and are forceful in various ways (Berkhout 2006). Foresight exercises, or‘formal'assessments of the future,
and discusses the implications for formal foresight exercises of science and technology. The central question of this paper is whether and howforesight exercises,
which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. These two reviews allow us to reflect in Section 4 on the implications for the practice
Foresight activities are seen as functions not only to identify promising technological pathways but also to engage relevant stakeholders and create common visions into action.
The special issue of Technology analysis & Strategic management in 2008 provides a good overview of these intended benefits.
A popular technique is technology roadmapping, which has been used since the 1980s by Motorola and later by many other firms (Willyard and Mcclees 1997), like Philips (Groenveld 1997) and Lockheed martin (Houston and Turner 2001).
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 772 H. van Lente Technological roadmaps basically are creative connections between expected developments in technological skills, sequences of products and potential future
and technology are structured, how they grow, gain dramatic attention or quietly disappear, and how this affects the decisions of engineers, businesses and governments.
businesses and governments derive their agendas from their collectively created images of a promising technology
In the case of technological expectations, however, it is not easy to distinguish between the validity of a claim and the collective perception of it (Van Lente 2000;
a promising future of a technological option lacks such independent tests. In fact, the only reliable way to validate the claim is to try to achieve it.
While the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 774 H. van Lente current performance of a technology
Second, expectations provide direction to the search processes of science and technology (Rip and Kemp 1998.
but the promising direction is available through the informal expectations circulating amongst technology developers. Expectations thus reduce uncertainty in much the same way as heuristics do in research and development (Nelson andwinter 1982.
In addition, sociologiist of science and technology point to the dynamic nature of science and technology:
The developers of a hopeful technology, on the other hand, see more uncertaintiie and have other options in case the applications will disappoint.
For example, constructive technology assessment (CTA) does not intend to give a final decision about the prospects of a technical development,
New technological options, as variations within a selection environment may or may not survive. The market is a distinct selection environment, next to institutional (regulations), cultural or political selection environments.
New technologies need protection to survive (in a company or a governmental programme), as they evolve by trial and error;
‘What I resent is the pressure from Europe to force one country to adopt this very dangerous technology'(371.
An example here is that public participation in new technologies often does not lead to new and heterodox insights;
and consultants anticipate the wave of expectations by locating their technological option in the cycle.
Foresight will thus enhance the reflexive and strategic character of technological change including self-fulfiling and self-denying dynamics.
to be contrasted with the numerous informal articulations of futures that circulate in science and technology.
and philosophy and has published widely on the dynamics of expectations in science and technology. His research interests concern how emerging technologies such as nanotechnology
hydrogen and medical technologies produce novelty and needs. This involves studies of technology Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 780 H. van Lente assessment, foresight, intermediary organisations, politics of knowledge production and philosophy of technology.
Currenntly he is Programme Director of Technology assessment of Nanonextnl, the leading Dutch research consortium in nanotechnology.
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Berube, D. M. 2006. Nanohype: The truth behind the nanotechnology buzz. Newyork: Promotheus Books. Borup, M.,N. Brown, K. Konrad,
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matching environmental uncertainty, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 783-796, DOI: 10.1080/09537325.2012.715487 To link to this article:
Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www. tandfonline. com/page/termsanndconditions Technology analysis & Strategic management Vol. 24, No.
and technological (PEEST) landscapes that surrooun the business micro environment and today are referred commonly to as the business macro environment (Fahey and Randall 1998).
and technological drivers of change interact in novel and unforeseeable ways. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 786 R. Vecchiato Prominent scholars supported the idea that the best way to handle an uncertain future is to ignore it
on the other hand, Philips and Siemens operated in fastpaace industries (consumer electronics and information and communication technology (ICT))
which were affected strongly by new technologies and customer needs. Foresight in mature industries Environmental uncertainty and foresight approach The chemical and automotive industries throughout the last decade were typically mature and global industries where trajectories of technologies
and customer needs were established well and companies competed for market share at the international level. The boundaries between the micro and macro environments were blurred in these industries;
by rooting them in an understanding of the long-term dynamics of technologies, economics, society, and politics.
The growing pace of technology developmment and the continuous emergence of disruptive changes in customer needs have contributed together to greatly increased dynamism in these industries and for these firms.
in the display and large-screen TV segment, in the last decade, there have been some major market launches of such new technologies as liquid crystal display, plasma display panel, surface-conduction electron-emitter display, organic
as major changes in technologies and ensuing customer demand are again continuously scrambling the boundaries of the business.
In such a context, strategic foresight efforts at Philips aimed essentially at detecting new trends in society, technologies,
and the expressions of these values as they emerge in customers'attitudes towards the technologies
and made coherent with those about technologies and markets, to provide a comprehensive vision of the future evolution of the firm business environment, in a procees that guarantees that all view points (people,
technology, and business) are taken into account. Foresight activities usually cover a 10-year time horizon, while emerging trend investigations are scheduled yearly to fit in with the annual strategy calendar.
As with Philips, foresight efforts at Siemens aim at identifying strong discontinuities and disruptions in markets and technologies so that they can be acted upon quickly.
Foresight activities are carried out by the Corporate Technology unit, where a specific research unit (an‘Innovation Field')has been established for each of the company business segments.
and customer needs in terms of both markets and technologies. In the case of the consumer products and ICT businesses, the time horizon is 5 years.
Foresight and decision-making The main goal of strategic foresight at Philips is to drive the renewal of the organisation by figuring out how to exploit the new market opportunities enabled by emerging technologies or in response to changing customer needs.
Philips has built its core technological competencies around displays, connectivity, and storage and started to develop and to experiment with innovative product concepts in all its business divisions.
Anotable example is the Ambilight concept (Ambient Lighting Technology), which aimed at enhancing the home cinema experience by generating lighting effects around the TV SET that match the video content,
At Siemens, too, foresight activities go beyond identifying emerging changes in technology and customer needs to encompass the exploitation of the new market opportunities inherent in such changes.
it is allocated to the‘Siemens Technology Accelerator'(part of the Corporate Technology Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 791 division),
Let us consider in particular such a driver of change as the convergence of multimedia technologies:
Investigating such changes in technology and customer needs requires not only the anticipation of their likely evolution,
Continuous drivers of change typically affect mature and global industries where trajectories of technologies and customer needs are established well
Discontiinuou drivers of change are typically disruptive technologies (Christensen 1997) and new customer needs stemming from emerging or growing industries.
foresight must help decision makers realize the implications of new technologies and customer needs for the value chain,
Discontinuous drivers of change typically stem from technology-driven industries which are at the initial stage of their life cycle.
if new technological paradigms such as electric of hydrogen car will be established. Firms operating in mature industrrie have to rely as well on environmental scanning
and explorative actions to look for likely technological discontinuities and major shifts in customer needs, even if such events are quite infrequent
and Phd graduates. 3. Roadmaps consist of representations of interconnected nodes of major changes and events in some selected fields of the external environment, such as science, technology, and markets.
a new technological paradigm might be established in mature industries as well, bringing the life cycle to the initial stages
His main research fields are foresight methodologies and strategic management of technology and innovation. He has presented on these themes at international conferences
and published in international journals such astechnological Forecasting and Social Change, Technology analysis and Strategic management, and International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy.
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Centre, Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain b Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), SCN Quadra 2, Bloco A, Ed. Corporate
Cristiano Cagnin & Denis Loveridge (2012) A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 797-820, DOI:
Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www. tandfonline. com/page/termsanndconditions Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 Technology analysis & Strategic management Vol. 24
8 september 2012,797 820 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnina, b*and Denis Loveridgec adg Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective and Technological
Cagnin 2005), namely social (S), spatial-technological (ST), economic (E), ecological (Ec), political (P) and values-norms (V)( acronym SSTEEPV.
spatial-technological, institutional-political and cultural-values. Cooperation and dynamic partnerships (Holliday, Schmidheiny, and Watts 2002) are the cornersstone of networked sustainability.
and the intangible assets underlying sustainable development are partnerships, strategy, communication, competencies, motivation, technology and operations. These are needed the activities for the creation of value in sustainable development (Cagnin 2005.
Both forecasting and technology assessmeen provide a more factual and numerical understanding of a business's financial and technical risks
and objectives-Based on feedback loops and information persistence-Interpersonal and technological channels in use-Based on cross boundary learning and knowledge flow-Intuition
level sustainability net Technology-Focus on manual individdua routine automatiion craft development character-Embryonic-Databased, IT used to build systems that cross functions
spatial-technological, social, economic, environmmenta or ecological, political-institutional and cultural-values. Living systems share matter, information and energy with their external environments:
and an inclusive dialogue throughout the network Competences Core competences definition and review Communication Communication channels and processes definition and review Technology Technology infrastructure definition and review Operations Operations
and leveraging Technology Existing IT, systems (IS), strategic, managerial and operational technologies analysis and selection Operations Marketing and/or commercial;
production; procurement; financial; human resources; legal Run the business Implementing the vision of sustainability Business Sustainability Maturity Model Business Path to Sustainability Comparing present performance (as it is) with the business
and leveraging Technology Technology selection; building and leveraging Operations Internal operations and network relationships, performance reporting Sustain the business Achieve the identified vision of sustainability
Through its components (foresight, forecasting and technology assessment), FTA has an undeniably arduous role to play.
and is now a senior advisor of STI (Science, Technology and Innovation policy and strategy at CGEE.
energy matters and corporate venturing to create new high-technology businesses, large and small, relating to long-term directions of change in the business environment.
He has negotiated technology licences based on intellectual property, for business growth and business advantage. References Accountability. 1999.
Technology and competitive advantage. The Journal of Business strategy 5, no. 3: 60 78. Porter, M. E. 1991.
Proceedings of the fourth international Seville conference on futureorieente technology analysis, Seville, Spain. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
and build a common set of values Technology An effective integration of social and environmental strategies can be supported strongly by theuse of IT.
Hence, technology (i e. IT and IS) plays a critical role in building and enabling an infrastructure to collect,
Recently, information visualization techniques have been used with corporate data to map several LDRD investment areas for the purpose of understanding strategic overlaps and identifying potential opportunities for future development outside of our current technologies.
and techniques hold great promise for aiding the future direction of the science and technology enterprise.
Much of the technology that has been developed 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
Computational and Information sciences (CIS), Engineering sciences (ES), Electronics and Photonics (EP), Materials Science and Technology (MST),
Then, internal teams of experts in the technologies comprising each IA review the short ideas
The purpose of these visualizations was to identify past and present technological competencies and overlaps of competencies, within the IAS.
, person, company, technology, product, university, etc. and relationships from unstructured textual sources. Using rules to define categories,
and categorize technology terms and organization terms (e g.,, CIS, MST, PP, ES, and EP.!Technology and organization terms were linked together on a document basis and visualized in a network or link analysis map.
Both types of visualizations, the landscapes and the link analyses, were used for both the Sandiaspeccifi and DOE LDRD analyses,
The two largest perceived overlaps were between CIS and the Engineering sciences (ES) and Materials Science and Technology (MST) areas,
Several smaller regions of overlap between CIS and MST, mostly in the lower part of the graph, are all related to microsystems and related technologies.
For instance, a portion of the EP portfolio dealing with microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) technology has shifted from component integration to applications.
However, specific information indicating the relationships between technology and IA and the explicit nature of the relationships between the technologies is hidden still.
In order to Fig. 4. Scatterplot of the five Sandia LDRD IAS using the same map coordinates as shown in the Vxinsight map of Fig. 3. Overlaps between the CIS IA
The link analysis map was crucial in portraying to the IA leads the direct and indirect relationships that occurred between technologies within their IAS,
The first level of analysis consisted of identifying relationships between technologies and multiple IAS. The relationships exposed by this analysis were intended to reveal potential overlapping
or complementary technology spaces that can be leveraged jointly in future LDRD calls. Fig. 5 is an example of the link analysis visualizations that were created
Common technologies that indirectly link two (or more) IAS appear between the IAS, showing direct links between a technology and the associated IAS.
Technologies that are unique to an IA are depicted by the collection of links that extend out from each IA label.
Fig. 5. Clearforest link analysis map of specific technology linkages between the five IAS. Thicker lines indicate stronger relationships.
Fig. 5 indicates that each IA has a robust set of unique technologies indicated by the unlabeled lines extending out from the IA markers.
This unique set of technologies represents the development of a strong and innovative R&d portfolio.
The third level of analysis consisted of a technology-to-technology relationship assessment within a single IA.
The result of the visualization pointed to specific technological efforts within an IA that could be combined to create a larger effort that could in turn attract future funding outside of the LDRD program.
compare, and leverage objective technological strengths to attract new external customers. 4. 3. Landscape mapping of DOE LDRD A map of the DOE LDRD data set was created using the same technique described previously
or ideas outside the technology clusters within the map. We note that a more global map
which future opportunities to fund. 4. 4. Link analysis of DOE LDRD The Sandia-specific link analysis assisted in the understanding of the technologies within,
and the relationships among, the technologies from different IAS. The next step was to take the localized knowledge extracted from the IA analysis and compare the strengths and weakness with the rest of the DOE complex.
only the strongest links between technologies and laboratories were extracted and visualized. Fig. 8 identifies the relationships between laboratories and technology,
and thus laboratories with common technology competencies. For example, laboratory B has an area of common technical focus with laboratory A through lithography, laboratory C through fuel cells and biological systems,
and laboratory D through biological systems and semiconductors. The identification of these common points directs us to btechnology categoriesq that can be analyzed further to identify the portfolio of technology that characterizes the capabilities of each laboratory.
For example, when clicking on the fuel cells node in Fig. 8 when using the Clearforest link analysis tool interactively,
and technologies that have weaker links than in the original visualization. Drilling down into a technology is a powerful analysis technique,
and provides greater detail for the laboratory and IAS. The value of this analysis lies in its ability to identify the technological capabilities of each laboratory,
in addition to determining whether duplication or collaborative opportunities exist. The second analysis consisted of linking each individual IA to other laboratories in the DOE complex through common technologies.
The analysis was conducted by selecting each IA in turn and exposing all laboratory and technology relationships associated with it.
The result was a visualization that placed the IA in the middle of the link map with a minimum of 50 nodes identifying direct and indirect Fig. 8. Clearforest link analysis map of specific technology linkages between different laboratories within the U s
. DOE complex. Thicker lines indicate stronger relationships. K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1134 relationships.
The indirect relationships were explored to identify complimentary technology outside of Sandia, and thus to assist in the identification of new
aid the IA leaders in forecasting the direction of technology development. Although this is not equivalent to more traditional and long-term forecasting methods such as Delphi studies or scenarios,
it is nonetheless an effective means of guiding the science and technology enterprise in the shorter term.
or consolidate efforts to create a more focused and effective technology development program. In the near future, we plan to expand our scope to include not only the LDRD information from DOE laboratories,
This will allow us to broaden the technology intelligence that forms the context of our maps
and forecast technology paradigm shifts, which in turn will allow us to take a stronger role in accelerating the development of cutting-edge technology.
This is a research question and possible future that is worthy of exploration. Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the LDRD Program, Sandia National Laboratories,
Vis. 2001 (2001) 23 30.5 K. W. Boyack, B. N. Wylie, G. S. Davidson, Domain visualization using Vxinsight for science and technology management, J. Am.
Nabeel holds a Master's degree in Management of Technology (MOT) from the Anderson Schools of Management at the University of New mexico.
His current areas of interest include the integration of information visualization technology with business intelligence. K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1136
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