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constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 821-841, DOI:
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research and technology organisation (RTO; anticipatory; agency; culture; roadmapping; strategy process Introduction The geographical scales of innovation systems are interlinked currently more than ever.
In the article, we focus especially on research and technology organisations (RTOS. As argued by Arnold, Clark,
whose predominant activities are to proviid research and development, technology, and innovation services to enterprises, governments, and other clients.
especially by increasing the innovation activities in industry through technology platforms, stretching technoloogica capabilities of companies, and connecting research-based theoretical knowledge with practical knowledge through applications.
We use a notion of process-based roadmapping that widens the horizons of traditional technology roadmapping in such directions as visionary strategic management, network building and development,
and the use of technology. In this article, we open a view towards the systemic capacities, based on a perspective of an organisation as a complex system that is mobile in space time.
and long term) and roadmap layers (such as drivers, markets, and enabling technologies). In the systemic context, roadmapping refers to a continuous and transparent process, not a single exercise,
and communication technology (ICT), differs vastly from the long term of a highly inert field, such as transportation infrastructure.
First is the culture of technology roadmapping, in which the roadmapping is approached as a normative instrument to identify relevant emerging technologies
and to align these technologies with explicit product plans and related action steps (see e g.
Phaal, Farrukh, and Probert 2001. In this culture, the roadmappiin process is a tool to endorse product development.
Process-based strategy roadmapping is methodologically more flexible and exploratory than traditiiona technology roadmapping. The roadmaps are approached not as hermetic plans to achieve definite goals (e g. new products),
When there is a need to link technological and societal trajectories, roadmapping is an apt instrument.
and technologies in a certain time frame. The fifth way is to identify single targets in the roadmap structure.
to identify logical temporal sequences in a specific roadmap layer, such as enabling technology. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
The first knowledge space is the technology space, which basically covers the domain of techniica knowledge,
emphasising technology as an object, that is, as a technological solution and a gadget, cutting through three temporal scales.
The second is the social/actor space, which covers all the issues that are primarily dependent on relations between different social actors inside and outside the organisation.
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Technology Covers a certain domain of technical knowledge, e g. different technologies, gadgets,
and development, cutting through the three temporal scales Capacities for the renewal of the technological basis:
Building a technological vision Scoping new enabling technologies or new products Identifying temporal sequences Identifying singular elements,
such as separate technologies, applications, and solutions Social/actor Covers issues that are primarily dependent on relations between different actors inside
and market drivers Strategy Strategic and holistic view of the research objects Strategic capacity of the organisation and/or entity Holistic roadmaps to be used in long-term strategic planning Technology space
It should be noted that the differences between the technology space and the social/actor space are mainly heuristic,
In the context of an RTO with an emphasis on technology development, this separation is, in our view,
useful because it enables the organisation to set specific targets both for technologies as solutions and organisational actors as realisers of these solutions.
at one end of the continuum there is technology as a mere object (a solution), and at the other end there is technology as socio-technical constellation combining the technological object,
related subject positions (e g. developer, user, non-user, early adopter, latecomer, and experimenter), and the wider social settings (e g. geographical, organisational, political, economic, and ethical).
In this space, the technology Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
Our model starts with a presupposition that in the technology and social/actor spaces the exploration of the more radical futures is restricted usually by the overaal need to identify certain actions in the present.
The first roadmap scope is R&d I, with a perspective of a single technology or object.
This is quite a traditional technology roadmap that aims to build a future perspective for a single technology. The aim of the roadmap is to identify specific action steps towards the future.
This scope is parallel to the technology space. The second roadmap scope is R&d II
but instead of a technology domain, the focus is on the organisational Table 2. Ideal scopes of roadmaps.
R&d perspective on a single technology or object Roadmapping single technologies from a certain perspective Enhancing organisational capacities in a certain technology field Building vision
and associated steps mainly in the technological space Drafting action steps to advance the implementatiio of the technology in question R&d II:
technology and social/actor space, R&d I scope Our first example is a roadmapping process that is aimed to renew a line of organisational compettenc that is already rather well established at VTT.
The first workshop was about drivers and technologies. The second workshop considered the future markeets business potential,
I type of technology roadmap that is aimed to contribute to the technology space and the social/actor space.
The project roadmapped a single type of technology sector and thus endorsed the organisational capacities in this domain.
The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 3. The building services roadmap operated, first, in the technology space.
It was aimed to build capacities for the renewal of VTT's technological basis by stressing the development of a more service-oriented approach.
The project knowledge in the technology space was constructed by building explicit technology visions, such as a novel way to characterise building services,
and identifying novel technological concepts, such as a virtual power plant and the‘black box'of a building. The project also operated in the social/actor space.
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Technology Exercise covered the field of building services with an explicit focus on the future possibilities,
especially through ICT applications Capacities for the renewal of technological basis internally at VTT Technology visions were built,
e g. in a novel way to characterise building services Catalysing a new bedrock for building services in Finland by stating the VTT state-of-the-art in research New enabling technologies were identified,
e g. advanced materials Several novel single technology elements were embedded in the roadmaps Social/actor Exercise covered social/actor space from the selected perspectives Capacities for linking of knowledge internally, e g. construction and ICT
market-based visions were built on the basis of current technology trajectories and also by tracking disruptive alternatives Markets for adoption of novel solutions, e g. integrated ICT Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in the renewal of building services markets,
e g. spread the vision of technological possibilities for rather conservative markets in building and construction Novel market features and actors were identified,
The construction machinery roadmap was aimed to develop new service capacities for a network of technology-oriented companies,
Visionary ideas about technology-enabled services could also be one way to stimulate Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and technology-enabled services in the field Constructing a horizontal anticipatory agency, especially through novel technology and services concepts Endorsing education
and international influences in the field Making visionary timelines for the adoption of new solutions Envisioning development projects based on the results this aspired culture.
In addition, the field of construction machinery should actively endorse a kind of horizontal anticipatory agency, for example, through novel technology and services concepts,
from a readiness to adopt new technological solutions, to the construction of novel knowledge linkages in an organisation,
The key systemic capacities in these cases emphasised especially the structural openness towards new technological impulses
On the basis of the cases, it can be assessed that roadmapping is most applicable to processes aimed either at the technology space, the social/actor space,
simulation, modellling technology mining, or cognitive mapping could provide useful data for the identification of potential‘boundary'competencies.
His current research focusses on socio-spatial transformations induced by science, technology, and innovation policies. He has published widely in the field of foresight, on topics such as roadmapping, emerging technologies and infrastructures,
and socio-technical change. Minna Halonen is a research scientist at VTT. Her research focusses on foresight and socio-technical change
Tech Degree from Helsinki University of Technology. Sirkku Kivisaari works as a senior scientist at VTT.
Tech.)) is a research scientist atvtt. He has been working in different roadmap processes as a senior facilitator.
(i) organisational development enabled by new communicational methods and (ii) marketing issues of environmental technologies. Nina Wessberg is a senior scientist in Foresight and Socio-Technical change team at VTT.
She holds a Dr. Degree in environmental policy and M. Sc. degree in environmental technology. References Aaltonen, M. 2007.
A study of social and economic impacts of research and technology organisations. A report to EARTO.
Technology road mapping: Linking technology resources into business planning. International Journal of Technology management 26, no. 1: 12 9. Geels, F. W. 2004.
From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems: Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory.
Research policy 33, nos. 6 7: 897 920. Halonen, M.,K. Kallio, and E. Saari. 2010.
Disruptive technology roadmaps. Technological forecasting & Social Change 71, no. 2: 141 59. Kostoff, R. N, . and R. R. Schaller. 2001.
Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21, no 3: 381 405. Lee, S.,andy. Park. 2005. Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes:
Technologies and markets. VTT Tiedotteita 2379. Edita, Helsinki In Finnish. Petrick, I. J, . and A e. Echols. 2004.
Technology roadmapping in review: A tool for making sustainable new product development decisions. Technological forecasting & Social Change 71, no. 1 2: 81 100.
Technology roadmapping: Linking technology resources to business objectives. Cambridge: University of Cambridge. http://www. ifm. eng. cam. ac. uk/ctm/publications/tplan/trm white paper. pdf (accessed August 18, 2009.
Phaal, R c. J. P. Farrukh, and D. R. Probert. 2004. Technology roadmapping a planning framework for evolution and revolution.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 71:5 26. Phaal, R c. J. P. Farrukh, and D. R. Probert. 2006.
Technology management tools: Concept, development and application. Technovation 26, no. 3: 336 44. Phaal, R, . and G. Muller. 2009.
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Huang a a School of management and Economics, Beijing Institute of technology, Beijing, China b Technology policy and Assessment Center, Georgia Institute of technology, Atlanta, GA,
Ying Guo, Tingting Ma, Alan L. Porter & Lu Huang (2012) Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 843-861, DOI:
Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www. tandfonline. com/page/termsanndconditions Technology analysis & Strategic management Vol. 24, No.
btechnology Policy and Assessment Center, Georgia Institute of technology, Atlanta, GA, USA Highly uncertain dynamics of New and Emerging science and Technologies pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools.
Once a set of multi-database, emerging technology search results has been obtained, we devise a means to help extract intelligence on key technology components and functions, major stakeholders,
and potential applications. We present results pertaining to the development of dye-sensitised solar cells. Keywords:
Tech Mining; nanotechnology; dye-sensitised solar cells, technology intelligence 1. Introduction New and Emerging science and Technologies(‘NESTS')are studied increasingly because of their potentially important‘emerging applications'.
'However, the highly uncertain dynamics of NESTS pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools. Capturing and exploring multiple potential innovation pathways show considerable promise as a way of informing technology management and research policy.
We have devised a 4-stage, 10-step approach to Forecast Innovation Pathways(‘FIP'.'This process integrates (a) heavily empirical‘Tech Mining'with (b) heavily expert-based multipath mapping.
It combines a range of Future-oriented technology analysis(‘FTA'TOOLS. These include innovation system modelling, text mining of Science, Technology & Innovation(‘ST&I')information resources, trend analyses, actor analyses,
and forecasting workshops. This paper explores the systematisation of the FIP analytical approach through the application of Tech Mining.
It presents results pertaining to the development of dye-sensitised solar cells (DSSCS. We treat DSSC abstract records through 2010 based on searches in four databases.
sharing progress on our efforts to devise algorithms to help extract key technology components, significant actors, and potential applications.*
FTA TOOLS have expanded from technology forecasting of incrementally advancing technologies (e g. consider Moore's law describing some six decades of continual advances in semiconductor capabilities)( Roper et al. 2011).
Such technology opportunitiie analysis (Porter et al. 1994) for NESTS poses notable challenges. FTA increasingly includes science-based technologies
with less orderly developmental trajectories (cf. Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group 2004; Cagnin et al. 2008). ) The analytical components that we address should be considered in the context of performing FTA (Porter 2010)
and applying it to serve technology policy or management ends (Scapolo, Porter, and Rader 2008). Recently, Robinson (Robinson et al. 2011) has introduced the approach of‘FIP'.
'That paper provides conceptual background for the endeavour of combining‘Tech Mining'(Porter and Cunninngha 2005) and‘multipath mapping'(Robinson and Propp 2008).
It explores the promise of this approach through its application to two illustrative innovation situations:
and national policy-makers as they formulate infrastructures to encourage innovation. 2. Background 2. 1. Tech Mining and FTAS Bibliometrics counting activity levels and identifying patterns in R&d bibliographic records,
plus patent analyses has contributed to science and technology studies for decades (cf. Van Raan 1988. With the expansion of databases that compile abstract records
Tech Mining (Porter and Cunningham 2005) is our shorthand for such activities.‘‘Research profiling'(Porter, Kongthon,
and Lu 2002) examines a technology of interest by search and retrieval of abstract records on the topic.
Classical technology forecasting methods were devised to address incrementally advancing technological systems. These methods keyed on technical system parameters, somewhat more than on socioeconnomi system aspects.
which emerging technologies contribute to commercial innovation. To facilitate the analysis of technological change, Hekkert et al. 2007) articulate‘functions of innovation systems'.
'Some researchers look into what kind of innovation transfer is most effective (e g. Liu, Tang, and Zhu 2008;
as well as undesirable while the course of technology development remains more malleable (Collingridge 1980; van Merkerk and van Lente 2005.
We note several innovation system conceptual modelling efforts pertaining particularly to energy technology, given our case focus on solar cells.
Several scholars seek to understand the driving forces and the blocking mechanisms that influence the development and diffusion of sustainable technologies (Jacobsson and Johnson 2000;
the technology delivery system(‘TDS')has demonstrated enduring value by capturing and representing (1) key enterprise (to‘deliver'an innovation) and (2) contextual factors (impinging on such delivery).
and Rossini (1985) developed a TDS for microcomputer technology in developing countries, spotlighting the importance of language barriers.
quite willing to revisit the earlier steps as one learns more about the emerging technology and distinguishes vital issues affecting potential commercial or other applications.
It seeks to gain basic understanding of the technology how it works and what functions it can accomplish (Step A). In addition,
and applying this technology (Step B). As discussed earlier, we favour TDS modelling to do this compactly and informatively.
We seek innovation indicators (i e. empirical measures to gauge technological maturation and prospects for successful applications.
We also seek to determine how technological characteristics link to functional advantages, applications, and potential users (Step E). Figure 1. Framework for forecasting NEST innovation pathways.
At Georggi Tech, we drew upon two faculty members to orient our work. Most importantly, we found a willing Phd student (Chen Xu) to collaborate in our analyses.
Work in this stage should take into account competing technologies that may hold advantages over the target NEST under study.
an important renewable energy technology form (also known as photovoltaics). DSSCS, one type of nano-enabled solar cells with special promise,
and are less equipment intensive than other solar cell technologies. 3. 3. Data We chose a modular,
Technology assessment (Step H) has not been carried out yet. Synthesis and reporting (Step I) to explicit target users have not been emphasised in this scholarly exercise.
with a secondary interest in the DSSC characterisation. 4. 1. Compose TDS (Step B) The TDS approach is akin to other technology innovation system approaches,
In terms of the enterprises to accomplish commercial innovation based on DSSC technology, we sketch three loose groups of companies.
Tech Mining the various publication and patent abstract records can track the emergence of key terms over time to spotlight new (appearing only in the most recent time period) and hot subtechnoologie (i e. those appearing
The rapid growth of DWPI and Factiva data suggests that DSSC technology is becoming more mature
the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science & Technology (AIST Japan), Uppsala University (Sweden),
& Technology with 1013 cites; and three others have 1330 to 1717 cites (to their many publications.
9. 5 Korean Institute of Science & Technology 1. 9 5. 1 6. 3 8. 2 Korea University 2. 3 10.3 6
2 1 Konarka Technologies Inc. 7*11 11*9*Dong Jin Semichem Co Ltd 0 1 16*8*Sony Corp
and among organisations. 4. 4. Determine potential applications (Step E) We introduced a new technique called‘cross-charting'to explore the links from technological attributes (e g. particular nanomaterials or nanostructures and particular technical advances) to functional
that is, cross-charting can suggest ways that particular technologies might link to potential applications. The content of a given cross-chart will vary depending on one's interests.
This could help us to identify potential partners with complementary interests at different places along this technology development progression, thereby serving‘Open innovation'purposes (Chesbrough 2006.
tracking materials to technology to functions to applications. engaging with those knowledgeable about the technology through the process of further specifying the set of important, and distinctive, functions;
We also contacted Georgia Tech and Emory University colleagues with a background in solar cells. One professor invited us to meet him.
key promising technologies can be identified and positioned in a time frame; and obstacles and opportunities that will facilitate
4. 7. Calls to perform technology assessment (Step H) Much of the FIP process serves to promote the first type of technology assessment evaluation of competing technologies.
A first step is to broaden the technology assessment beyond the technology alone, to expand selection criteria beyond technical functionality to consider cost, infrastructures, and compatibility.
This leads us to the second type of technology assessment impact assessment. We especially would like to identify potential hazards
DSSCS reflect a variety of component technologies, with R&d emphases distributed among them. In one stream of exploration, we consider the intersection of advanced dye formulations (to enhance light energy capture)
The potential draws on the practical combination of empirical and expert knowledge to capture key technology and contextual attributes, affecting the prospects for effective applicatioons Drawing attention to innovation pathways (e g.
which in turn can trigger consideration about research, technology management, and policy options. Laying out alternative pathways also raises impact assessment needs.
Her current specialty is technology management and assessment, particularly focusing on how to forecast the likely innovation pathways for emerging nano-related technologies and applications.
Tingting Ma is a Phd candidate in Management Science and Engineering, Beijing Institute of technology of China.
Her specialty is science and technology management particularly the study of technology forecasting and assessment. She is focusing on research on emerging science and technology topics.
Alan L. Porter is Director of R&d for Search Technology, Inc.,Norcross, GA. He is also Professor Emeritus of Industrial & Systems Engineering,
and of Public policy, at Georgia Tech, where he continues as the co-director of the Technology policy and Assessment Center.
He is the author of some 220 articles and books, including Tech Mining (Wiley, 2005).
He and the co-authors are preparing a Second Edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology (Wiley.
He is pursuing ways to exploit science and technology information to generate and visualise intelligence on emerging technologies.
Lu Huang is a faculty member in the School of management and Economics, Beijing Institute of technology. Her specialty is science and technology management, particularly the study of technology forecasting and assessment.
She is focusing on research on emerging science and technology topics. References Cagnin, C.,M. Keenan, R. Honston, F. Scapolo,
and R. Barré, eds. 2008. Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an innovation economy. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-verlag. Chesbrough, H. W. 2006.
Open innovation: A new paradigm for understanding industrial innovation. In Open innovatiion Researching a new paradigm, ed. H. W. Chesbrough, W. Vanhaverbeke,
Technology assessment: A tool kit. Chemtech 6 june: 372 83. Collingridge, D. 1980. The social control of technology. London:
Pinter. Ezra, A a. 1975. Technology utilization: Incentives and solar energy. Science 187: 707 13. Foxon, T. J.,R. Gross, A. Chase, J. Howes, A. Arnall,
and D. Anderson. 2005. UKINNOVATION systems for newand renewable energy technologies: Drivers, barriers and systems failures.
Energy Policy 33, no. 16: 2123 38. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 859 Guo, Y.,L. Huang,
A new approach for analyzing technological change. Technological forecasting & Social Change 74, no. 4: 413 32. Huang, L.,Z. C. Peng, Y. Guo,
The diffusion of renewable energy technology: An analytical framework and key issues for research. Energy Policy 28, no. 9: 625 41.
Journal of the American Society for Information science and Technology 60, no. 2: 348 62. Liu, B.,N. Tang,
Transferring technology across borders: Institutional effects in Chinese context. The Journal of Technology transfer 33, no. 6: 619 30.
Markard, J. 2006. Technological innovation systems and the multilevel perspective: Towards a combined framework for the analysis of innovation processes.
Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies: The case of nanotubes. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72, no. 9: 1094 112.
The Journal of Technology transfer 33, no. 6: 653 66. Porter, A l. 2010. Technology foresight: Types and methods.
Tech mining: Exploiting new technologies for competitiveadvantage. New york: Wiley. Porter, A l.,Y. Guo, L. Huang, and D. K. R Robinson. 2010.
Forecasting innovation pathways: The case of nano-enhanced solar cells. ITICTI International Conference on Technological innovation and Competitive Technical intelligence, Beijing.
Technology opportunities analysis: Integrating technology monitoring, forecasting & assessment with strategic planning. SRA Journal (Society of Research Administrators) 26, no. 2: 21 31.
Porter, A l.,A. Kongthon, and J.-C. Lu. 2002. Research profiling: Improving the literature review. Scientometrics 53, no. 3: 351 70.
Journal of the American Society for Information science & Technology 61, no. 9: 1871 87. Rantanen, K,
Forecasting innovation pathways for new and emerging science & technologies. Technological forecasting & Social Change, doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2011.06.004.
Multi-path mapping for alignment strategies in emerging science and technologies. Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 4: 517 38.
Forecasting and management of technology. 2nd ed. Newyork: Johnwiley. Shi, H.,A l. Porter, and F. A. Rossini. 1985.
Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group (Alan L. Porter, Brad Ashton, Guenter Clar, Joseph F. Coates, Kerstin Cuhls, Scottw.
Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods. Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 1: 287 303.
Handbook of quantitative studies of science & technology. Dordrecht: North Holland. http://www. cwts. nl/.
Interinstitutional networks in technological delivery systems. In Science and technology policy, ed. J. Haberer, 153 75.
Lexington: Lexington Books. Appendix 1. WOS DSSC search terms No. Records Term Annotation#1 4000 TS=((dye-sensiti*)or (dye*same sensiti*)or (pigment-sensiti*)or (pigment same sensiti*)or (dye*same sense)) same
methods to get information for discussion on strategies of sustainable growth through science and technology. It seeks to address the combination of outputs in an objective manner to identify expected areas of future innovation toward the desired future as well as related areas that are supposed to play a key part.
Keywords Foresight, Combination, Delphi method, Scenario, Innovation, Sustainable development, Forward planning Paper type Case study 1. Introduction The situation surrounding science and technology has undergone a radical change in recent years.
and many countries have shown a clear tendency to place special focus on science and technology policy in their innovation strategies.
Science and technology policy are discussed often including the creation of values in society, social or economic conditions for their promotion,
In Japan, the status of science and technology policy in the national grand strategy has changed significantly as its GDP growth rate stagnates in the face of intensified international competition and a falling birth rate and aging population.
10.1108/14636681311310105 Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada are based at the National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Tokyo, Japan.
Since 1996, science and technology policy has been carried out under the Science and Technology Basic Plans which are formulated every five years.
and technology to contribute toward addressing global or national challenges. In the Fourth Basic Plan (Government of Japan
solving global or national issues through the effective application of science and technology. In this situation, the idea of placing special focus on particular fields has to be phased out,
B the fusion of several areas in science and technology; B collaboration with the humanities and social science;
and B the promotion of science and technology viewed as an integral part of social-system reformation.
Converging technologies, collaboration or fusion of several fields (nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science) have been given attention since the mid-2000s.
and technologies are becoming interrelated and need to be converged, and converging technologies focus on human performance or the social or economic dimension (National science Foundation, 2002,2005;
European commission, 2004. It is expected that converging technologies will trigger innovation and lead to the solution of social issues in the future.
Foresight has changed its role according to these changes: it aims to provide an overview of future impacts on our society in broader contexts.
Their main role was to identify key or emerging technologies, looking into the development of science and technology and the expected changes in society.
Strong emphasis is placed on how key technologies or emerging technologies should be integrated and adequately embedded in society to achieve social goals and tackle social issues.
Foresight is expected to facilitate a framework for integrated knowledge. 2. The 9th Science and Technology foresight in Japan A variety of methods have been adopted in alignment with the objectives of a project including extrapolative/normative methods or qualitative/quantitative methods.
The 9th Science and Technology foresight in Japan (see Figure 1) focuses on science and technology,
Considering the relation between science and technology and society along the lines of science in and for society, it is necessary to have a broad view from both the technological and social aspects.
1. Delphi that focuses on the technological aspect; 2. scenario that explores the interaction between the technological aspect and the social aspect;
and 3. workshop that aims for the participation of citizens. The exercise was conducted by the National Institute of Science and Technology policy from 2008 to 2010.
It started with a discussion on social goals and their relation to science and technology, considering changes on a global or national scale.
Based on the discussion, four global or national challenges were set as the goals of science, technology and innovation.
They act as an umbrella covering three investigative studies which were carried out independently by using the methods mentioned above.
B Delphi provides technological perspectives for the challenges; B scenario reveals the social impact of technological development
and B workshop provides tangible examples of the challenges on a regional scale as well as the technological and social conditions involved.
The main points are expert panels by cross-disciplinary theme rather than by technological discipline, the active participation of specialists in social science and humanities,
is to identify the expectations for science and technology. The preliminary discussion was conducted to identify the missions of science
and technology that would play an important role in drawing up a picture of future society.
''They reviewed the mission of science and technology, and selected 24 priority issues (National Institute of Science and Technology policy, 2009).
The results of the preliminary discussion clearly indicated the importance of systematic integration in other words, science and technology to be embedded in society as a socialized system.
With the discussion above and the dramatic changes occurring inside and outside Japan as a backdrop,
the 9th Foresight exercise narrowed down the course of actions, in terms of scientific and technological challenges, into the following four global or national challenges:
1. central player in the scientific and technological arena; 2. sustainable growth through green innovation; 3. successful model for healthy-aging society;
and it has been used in Japan as a technique for large-scale questionnaires targeted at experts in science and technology since 1971.
and technology from the viewpoint of‘‘what should be done from now on''to resolve global or national challenges,
and what kind of science and technology will be expected to contribute to realize them. Participants included citizens, researchers, business persons,
and technology that achieve innovation success to resolve challenges in the future. However, investigative studies that are implemented in parallel do not give a comprehensive and panoramic view.
and Technology information for analysis is obtained from the Delphi survey and scenario building by group work in the 9th Foresight exercise.
and technology because they are considered complementary to each other also in regard to perspectives of development in science and technology.
Delphi deals with a variety of areas of science, technology and society, and therefore it contains events that are expected to make an implicit contribution
and technology for addressing the challenges, looking at things holistically. However neither the relationship among events nor the necessary coordination or cooperation among them is mentioned.
Furthermore, Delphi rarely refers to the application of established technologies, tending instead to cover leading-edge technologies.
On the other hand, scenario gives sufficient discussion on scientific and technological events that make a direct contribution to the challenges,
considering a variety of related factors. It also refers to the application of established technologies and collaboration possibilities among technologies.
However it cannot give a comprehensive view and define priorities for the whole country. All the information from scenario building is dependent on each theme.
and base or general-purpose technologies tend to have little chance of being mentioned. 3. 2 Procedure of combination Text mining is employed to combine information from two sources, i e.
and technology for realizing innovation for solutions to the challenges. The procedure is shown in Figure 2. 4. Expected innovation 4. 1 Relations between Delphi topics and scenarios On average,
The scenarios that contain many highly scored topics can be considered to offer a greater scope for contributions from science and technology.
''In terms of these themes, the importance of each scientific and technological event has gained already a common understanding among those concerned.
and technology can offer. Figure 2 The procedure of analysis VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 11 4. 2 Overall view Relations between the scenarios
This implies that the areas that are conducive to the realization of energy-and-environment related future visions gathered much attention from experts in a variety of technological disciplines.
where science and technology are expected to make great contribution because a lot of Delphi topics are related closely.
I. Other elements that possibly assume a high level of importance come from such areas as fundamental technology (e g.
Space and ocean management technology (including observations) a 06-A Nuclear energyb 06-D Renewable energyb 06-C Fossil energy 06-H Efficient power
and CCS 08-C Lifestyle and environment 08-G Evaluation of and countermeasures to global warming 08-I Technology for urban waste minimization/material circulation for environmental conservation
water and soil/circulative use technology for water resources 10-F Energy, resources, and environmenta Health and medical care 03-B Applied bio-nanotechnology 03-E Medical treatment (exogenous factor, metabolic disease,
-B New principle for information and communication 05-G Space technologies (including space medicine) 09-A Base materials for nanotechnologyb 09-B Output (device, systemization and applied
technology) b 10-E Globalization, value-adding and market creation 10-G Unpopularity of science and engineering, human resource problem,
The collaboration of these base technologies including ICT with mainstream innovation will be discussed further in the next section. 5. Common factors for future innovation As stated in section 3,
and technology that have the potential to make innovation happen and contribute to the solution of four challenges directly or indirectly.
This section discusses how base technologies in common are expected to become engaged in the two potentialities. 5. 1 Examination from positions of key areas As shown in Table I,
which indicates that innovative progress will be made in health and medical care through collaboration with ICT and management technology.
this indicates that these areas will play a role as a general-purpose technology or as a source of cutting-edge technology providing ground-level support to the concrete contributions of other technologies.
Figure 5 Relation between directions of future innovation and base technology areas VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 15 5. 2 Examination of relationship between scenario descriptions
including base technologies, are expected to have a great effect in solving four challenges. Another focus is Delphi topics in the key areas categorized as‘‘Others''in Table I that is, the topics in Panels 2, 5, 9, 10,11, and 12.
Regarding base or common technologies related to ICT (Panel 2) and to earth/space (Panel 5),
whereas when it comes to technologies related to hard and soft infrastructure (Panel 11 and 12),
The extent of expected diversity in science and technology depends on scenario themes and the extent of relation to scenario themes depends on scientific or technological fields.
and technology is indispensable for discussing the desired future. 6. Conclusion To bring about innovation in society through the effective use of the fruits of science
They provided information about scientific and technological possibilities and promoting factors toward specific social goals as well as the potential of each local region.
and scenario to get a whole picture of science and technology toward the desired future. Green-related areas and life-related areas define the major directions of our future efforts toward realization of the desired future.
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Corresponding author Yoshiko Yokoo can be contacted at: yokoo@nistep. go. jp PAGE 18 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
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