On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues Effie Amanatidou1,,
horizon scanning activities have been applied at the national level to inform national foresight exercises, thus providing a more evidence-based approach to research and innovation policy (Georghiou 2007).
and therefore present a significant foresight challenge both for policy makers and researchers (Mendonc¸a et al. 2009) Emerging issues Beyond horizon scanning the concept of emerging issues is used also in the area of risk assessment (Marvin et al. 2009), in the field of environmental issues (Sutherland et al. 2010) and in organisations in their environmental scanning (Morrison 1992).
scientific articles, statisttica analysis, trend reports and foresight exercises. The storyline may address conflicts or common interests as well as emotional, ethical and legal aspects.
Within the SESTI project, a number of foresight reports in the field of energy and healthcare were processed with text-mining.
and clustering Cross-checking with results from recent foresight exercises Duration: observation time High Medium Medium As reported but also time series tracing possible in blogs, google etc.
Cross-checking with results from recent foresight exercises In focused expert review by tracing back on internet (e g. google timeline) As reported by survey respondents;
and considered in framing/reframing of potential issues by manual search for related previous foresight activities
in previous published thematic foresight report as well as in recently published policy documents Text-mining can show the policy related terms.
For the more creative function it is necessary to realise that the shaping of emerging issues is a social activity where foresight intelligence is shaped (re by the perceptions,
Also via examinattio of relevant thematic foresight reports and recently published policy documents Meta descriptions of issues can be discussed in Workshops with experts
Notes 1. See<http://www. bis. gov. uk/foresight/our-work/horizonscanning-centre>accessed 21 december 2011.2.
Czaplicka-Kolarz, K.,Stanczyk, K. and Kapusta, K. 2009)‘ Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector developmeen in Poland till 2030.
<http://www. unido. org/foresight/rwp/dokums pres/tf plenary georghiou 201. pdf>accessed 8 september 2011. Hiltunen, E. 2008a)‘ The future sign and its three dimensions',Futures, 40: 247 60..(
Loveridge, D. 2009)‘ Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future'.'New york and London:
Giaoutzi, M. and Sapio, B. eds) Recent developments in Foresight methodologies. New york: Springer verlag. Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 221
totti. konnola@impetusolutions. com. In this paper, we discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, particularly in the light of the foresight exercise‘Facing the future:
which in turn contributes to the enhanced transparency and legitimacy of foresight. Keywords: horizon scanning; foresight; grand challenges;
policy coordination; futures. 1. Introduction In future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), the systematti exploration of divergent views on future developments has tended to receive less attention than approaches that foster consensus seeking (Ko nno la et al. 2011;
Methodological advances have been pursued, for instance, in the Framework programme 7 Blue sky Foresight projects on emerging issues that shape European science and technoloog (Amanatidou et al. 2012.
which evolved gradually from initial exchanges of relevant foresight studies to more systemaatic comprehensive scanning and detailed analysis of reports,
and phases of foresight exercise‘Facing the future'(Boden et al. 2010). Facing the future: Horizon scanning. 225 developed using a participatory approach.
These issues were complemented with additional issues from the FTA 2008 conference survey. 3 3. 2 Assessment of issues The formulated issues were assessed in an online survey by some 270 external experts who represented foresight practitiooners
including foresight practitioners. All particiipant were requested to prepare for the workshop by familiarizing themselves with the earlier results
font styles of issue codes refer to results obtained in different RPM analyses(<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/survey issues. pdf,
we have presented the foresight exercise‘Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges'which has informed the strategy processes of BEPA
The particularly novel issues from this survey were added to the issues collected from the literature review. 4. These issues plus the 73 additional issues identified by the survey participants can be found at<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/bepa. html
Brummer, V.,Ko nno la, T. and Salo, A. 2008)‘ Foresight within Era nets: Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.
Fuerth, L. S. 2009)‘ Foresight and anticipatory governance',Foresight, 11:14 32. Georghiou, L. and Cassingena Harper, J. 2011)‘ From priority-setting to articulation of demand:
Foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy',Futures, 43: 243 51. Glenn, J. C.,Gordon, T. J. and Florescu, E. 2010) State of the Future, The Millenium Project.
Graefe, A.,Luckner, S. and Weinhardt, C. 2010)‘ Prediction markets for foresight',Futures, 42: 394 404.
Haegeman, K.,Cagnin, C.,Ko nno la, T.,Dimitrov, G. and Collins, D. 2011)‘ Web 2. 0 for foresight:
Experiences on an innovation platform in European agenda setting'in Proceedings of the FTA 2011 Conference, Seville,<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/>accessed 26 september 2011.
Ko nno la, T.,Brummer, V. and Salo, A. 2007)‘ Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 74: 608 26.230.
Ko nno la, T.,Haegeman, K. and Guy, K. 2012)‘ Embedding foresight in transnational research programming',Science and Public policy, 39: 191 207.
Ko nno la, T.,Scapolo, F.,Desruelle, P. and Mu, R. 2011)‘ Foresight tackling societal challenges:
Martin, B. and Johnston, R. 1999)‘ Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system: Experiences in Britain, Australia and New zealand',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 60:37 54.
Nelson, R. 2010)‘ Extending foresight: The case for and nature of foresight 2. 0',Futures, 42: 282 94.
Nonaka, I. 1994)‘ A dynamic theory of organizational knowleedg creation',Organization science, 5: 14 37. OECD. 2008) OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030.
Salo, A.,Brummer, V. and Ko nno la, T. 2009)‘ Axes of balance in foresight:
Schoen, A.,Ko nno la, T.,Warnke, P.,Barre',R. and Kuhlmann, S. 2011)‘ Tailoring foresight to field specificities',Futures, 43: 232 42.
Using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context',Foresight, 8: 3 12. SEC (2010) 1161 Final.
foresight; future markets; grand challenges; global challenges; megatrends; societal demand. 1. Introduction: The idea The Lund Declaration (Lund Declaration 2009) formulated a request that European research should focus on the grand challenges of our time, moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches.
These developments were addressed directly in the Fraunhofer foresight process at that time (Klingner et al. 2008. 2. 1. 5 Fifth example.
Methodologically, the analysis of different foresight activities in different countries was at the forefront. From these analyses, a core team composed of Fraunhofer
In this approach, the analysis of foresight studies was only a small work package followed by an internal survey to generate topics.
Papers on foresight studies or specific technological R&d trends were analysed and evaluated as the starting point. Experts with different technological backgrounds met in workshops to discuss
The European foresight monitoring Network: Collection of EFMN Briefs',pp. 201 6. Luxemburg: Office for Official Publications of the EU. Cuhls, K.,Blind, K. and Grupp, H. 2002) Innovations for our Future.
New foresight on Science and Technology. Technology, Innovation and Policy, Series of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, No. 13.
Kolz, H. and Hadnagy, C. 2012)‘ A regional foresight process to cope with demographic change: Future radar 2030 (Zukunftsradar 2030)',International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy, forthcoming special issue.
Lund Declaration. 2009), See<www. se2009. eu/..fs/1...lund declaration final version 9 july. pdf>accessed 20 september 2011.
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