Foresight offers a means to explore these dimensions of science. The International council for science (ICSU) has been applying foresight as a central component of its strategic planning.
This paper describes the most recent ICSU exercise which has explored how two decades hence international collaboration in science could foster progress in science and address global challenges.
research foresight; international science cooperation; scenarios; International council for science. 1. Introduction Responses to grand challenges, if they are to be effective,
ICSU has been using foresight practices for some time to determine research priorities (Teixeira et al. 2002) and to develop mobilising visions of the orientation of whole research fields (ICSU 2010).
The purpose of its current foresight exercise is to explore the potential development of international science over the next two decades in a changing economic, social, political and environmental context.
To this end, the conduct of the foresight exercise has been synchronized closely with the development of the ICSU strategic plan 2012 7 (ICSU 2011a)
This paper sets out to describe the conduct of the ICSU foresight exercise with a view to identifying lessons for future foresight exercises carried out in international arenas.
A final section draws some preliminary conclusiion on the design choices taken, the peculiarities of conducting foresight in international arenas,
and the scope for using foresight to further international science cooperation in the future. 2. The past and the present of international science cooperation Before thinking about the futures of international science cooperation,
if it is to continue to play a leadership role for the global scientific community. 3. Foresight approach
and results ICSU is no stranger to using foresight approaches. In 2002 it commissioned a meta-analysis of the results of several existing national foresight exercises with the aim of identifying future priority areas for international science cooperation (Teixera et al. 2002.
More recently, ICSU has started to use foresight approaches in some of its thematic work. For example, it has been carrying out a visioning exercise On earth systems research with a view to identifying a single strategic framework for global environmental change research and its policy relevance (ICSU 2010.
In contrast to these earlier foresight approaches, the exercise described in this paper neither attempted to identify research priorities nor did it focus on any particulla research field.
The 2002 foresight exercise had explicitly set out to identify priority areas of science for ICSU to focus upon in its new strategic plan (ICSU 2006.
This exercise reinforced the continued importance of ICSU's historical areas of interest, mainly focused around the environment,
Following a foresight design framework outlined by Keenan and Miles (2008 these can be grouped as follows:.
Foresight exercises depend upon a number of different resources, including financial, human and relational capital, for their success. Given the limited capacity in the ICSU Secretariat,
Foresight exercises usually demand broad participation for their success . But the depth of this participation is also a significant success factor.
This infrastructure provided a wide and diverse base for eliciting views during the foresight exercise. However
The time horizon of the foresight exercise had to be beyond ICSU's usual planning horizons of 5 10 years.
were used extensively. 3. 2 The three phases of ICSU foresight The foresight exercise entailed three phases as follows:.
and extensively deployed in regional, national and international foresight exercises. It involves generating a vision of success that sets‘stretch targets'for key stakeholdders Crucially,
and the peculiarities specific to conducctin international foresight exercises are discussed. 4. 1 Reception and impacts The exercise is expected to have impacts both inside and outside of ICSU.
The new plan also includes commitments to engage the ICSU memberrshi in continuing foresight analysis
as necessary, in the light of the foresight findings. The internal impacts of the success scenario are less certain at the time of writing,
This can be taken as a strong signal of the likely interest of the science policy community in the scenarios. 4. 2 Lessons in conducting international foresight Reflecting on the approach taken in the ICSU foresight,
Second, conducting international foresight has some peculiarities that need to be taken into account. The most obvious challenge is limited the scope for bringing people together face-to-face on a regular basis on account of the costs involved.
'175 Finally, the exercise and ICSU's other uses of foresigght e g. in the Earth systems visioning exercise have demonstrated the feasibility of using foresight in support of international science cooperation activities.
For example, experiences with international foresight using scenarios have been described by Cagnin and Ko nno la (2011) for the domain of intelligent and sustainable manufacturing,
foresight has been proven to be a useful tool for bringing together different stakeholders in processes of mutual learning and exchange of expectations of the future,
At the same time, ICSU's independence and unique ability to consult with the worldwide scientific community in conducting global foresight
Many of the ICSU membership have adopted foresight approaches to help them become more flexible and responsive.
Cagnin, C. and Ko nno la, T. 2011)‘ The challenge of global foresight: lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems,
2011b)‘ ICSU Foresight Analysis Report 1: International Science in 2031 Exploratory scenarios'.'Paris: International council for science. iknow. 2011)‘ iknow ERA Toolkit:
I. and Popper, R. eds) The Handbook of Technology foresight, pp. 342 75. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
Miles, I. 2005)‘ Scenario planning',in UNIDO Technology foresight Manual, Vol. 1, pp. 168 93. Vienna: UNIDO.
Miles, I.,Cassingena Harper, J.,Georghiou, L.,Keenan, M. and Popper, R. 2008)‘ The many faces of foresight'.
I. and Popper, R. eds) The Handbook of Technology foresight, pp. 3 23. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
an International Perspective on National foresight Studies',review report to the ICSU Committee on Scientific Planning and Review Report.
foresight; socio-technical transformation. 1. Introduction Since the 1960s, the results of R&d practices have increasinngl been approached as knowledge inputs in the construuctio of science and technology policies.
foresight and forward-looking policy design The concept of a system has different emphases in different branches of the innovation literature.
In the field of foresight, the idea of systemicity, and especially the anticipation of potential system failures, has become a key rationale.
) Foresight stimulates two types of systemic capacities. First, foresight provides actors with informatiio and signals outside the immediate environment and helps to identify potential threats and opportunities.
It thus helps to overhaul the so-called market lock in. Secondly, foresight stimulates new social structures and linkages that could be useful in fostering the circulation of information in the system.
Georghiou and Keenan (2006: 764) also propose that foresight has other functions, like exploring future opportunities in order to set priorities for investment in science and innovation activities,
reorienttin the science and innovation system, demonstrating the vitality of the science and innovation system, bringing new actors into the strategic debate,
foresight has a catalysing role. Foresight is about the formation of‘process benefits, 'about aligning expectations and building a‘self-fulfilling prophecy'.
'In a systemic view, foresight can thus be viewed as‘an integral element of networked and distributed policy making'.
'This is realized through three functions of foresigght informing, strategic counselling and facilitating (Weber et al. 2009:
766) also distinguish three policy rationales of foresight. The first is the provision of policy advice by accentuating the long-term perspective.
Foresight builds up an‘interaction space'by stimulating new networks and communities through the formation of a common vision.
The foresight process provides a‘hybrid forum'for strategic reflection that broadens the range of participation on policy issues.
In our approach, foresight has a specific role and thus one could talk about forward-looking policy design.
From our perspective, six functions of foresight defined by Da Costa et al. 2008: 369) aptly capture the functions of foresiigh in the context of policy design.
Support to strategy processes and global market foresight MARKETS: Sub-optimisation, price dominates; Fragmented markets; Technically defined regulations;
T. Ahlqvist et al. to support regional strategy processes by executing systematti rounds of global market foresights.
The roadmapping approach represents a form of foresight which can contribute to dealing with the web of future dependencies.
First, innovation policy roadmapping contributes to enhancing the systemic benefits of foresight. Our conclusiion support the views of Georghiou
and Keenan (2006) who emphasize the systemic rationale of foresight. Foresight enables the connection between multiple stakeholdders with diverging perspectives
and limited informatiion and enables them to align their actions towards shared long-term visions. Foresight processes can produce outcomes that spring from interactions between multiple stakeholders.
The success of the systemic foresight process could be evaluated, for example, by the ideas it has created that could be potentially important for multiple stakeholders
Barker, D. and Smith, D. J. H. 1995)‘ Technology foresight using roadmaps',Long Range Planning, 28:21 8. Blackwell, A f.,Phaal, R.,Eppler, M
Da Costa, O.,Warnke, P.,Cagnin, C. and Scapolo, F. 2008)‘ The impact of foresight on policy-making:
Georghiou, L. and Keenan, M. 2006)‘ Evaluation of natioona foresight activities: Assessing rationale, process and impact',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 73: 761 77.
Transition management in public policy',Foresight, 3: 15 31. Smits, R. and Kuhlmann, S. 2004)‘ The rise of systemic instrumeent in innovation policy',International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy, 1: 4 32.
Smits, R.,Kuhlmann, S. and Shapira, P.,eds,(2010) The Theory and Practice of Innovation policy:
experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna',Technology analysis and Strategic management, 21: 953 69.
Embedding foresight in transnational research programming Totti Ko nno la 1, *and Karel Haegeman2 1 Impetu Solutions, Vi'ctor Andre's Belaunde, 36-4c, 28016 Madrid, Spain 2european Commission, JRC-IPTS, Edificio EXPO
This provides some evidence on a potentially significant role for foresight in facilitating and integrating different functions of programming
but also shows major challenges in foresight design and management, which we address by way of elaborating guiding foresight principles of scalability, modularity and flexibility.
We also consider the potential role of foresight in joint programming in Europe and in transnational research programming elsewhere.
Keywords: transnational research co-operation; foresight; joint programming. 1. Introduction Science and scientists have crossed the national borders of individual states for many years.
International research collaboration has become a daily business together with the pace of globalisation. In this respect, more collaborattio in research programming across borders makes sense in terms of avoiding duplication, reaching a critical mass and detecting gaps,
and examine some recent European experiences using foresight as a co-ordination tool embedded in the facilitation of transnational research collaboration.
possible foresight principles in the context of transnational research programming are discussed, as well as the role foresight can play as an integrator of programming functioons The paper also looks at the implications for transnatiiona programming in Europe and elsewhere.
Finally, it draws conclusions for foresight in transnational research programming. 2. Co-ordination of transnational programming The co-ordination of cross-national public research involves a set of challenges in bridging potentially Science and Public policy 39 (2012
) pp. 191 207 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs020 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved.
evaluation and learning-based policy-making Lack of national support to fund longer-term collaboration in evaluation Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 193 European experiences
In last two decades systemic challenges in research and innovation have lead to the development of systemic Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 195 instruments for better preparedness, co-ordination and integrratio of research and innovation systems
Among different systemic instruments foresight has been characterised as a participatory, systemic and anticipatory vision building approach that supports the present-day decision-making (European commission 2002).
In this paper we explore the possible role of foresight in transnational research programming and how it can respond to systemic, horizontal,
and facilitating the different functions of programming described in Table 2. 3. Empirical observations on recent foresights in connection with transnational research programming In this section we describe three European cases of transnatiiona research programming in terms of the role foresight
some possible foresight principple are discussed in Section 4. Further testing of those principles goes beyond the scope of this paper,
and piloting of the proposed approach. 3. 1 Foresight processes case by case The cases were handpicked principally because of the explicit role of foresight activities in their implementation as well as the fact that the present authors had access to the information
T. Ko nno la and K. Haegeman specific processes and roles of foresight in each of these cases is given below and in Fig. 2. 3. 1. 1 Wood Wisdom-net24.
The main role of foresight in this case is to support the joint programme preparation of Member States
The responsibles for the shaping of research agendas realised that a systematti participatory bottom up foresight process could streamline the engagement of Research and Technology development communities from eight countries.
Stakeholders25 had specified roles and responsibilities in each consecutive phase of the foresight process. Their inputs were solicited
The main role of foresight in this case is to develop, maintain and update the strategic research agenda (SRA),
To this end a foresight and programming unit (FPU) was established, consisting of a small group with an interest in the animal diseases and their future perspectives.
ongoing foresight activities aiming to renew the SRA, foresiigh capacity building and gap analysis. The sustainability of the FPU is intended to be achieved by having the SCAR Collaborative Working group Animal Health
and respective foresight roles Case Partners Timing Goal Role of foresight Wood Wisdom-net20 18 partners from 8 European countries 2004 8 Establish
coordiinat activities and work towards a common research agenda and mutual research funding activities in field of animal health Structured long-term foresight process to develop,
business opportunities and needs for new co-operation structures Support identification of breakthrroug innovations on functions of cities in future (2020 50) Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 197 3
In this case foresight supports the identification of specific research needs and roadmaps, short-and long-term poliic measures
30 and making use of foresight techniques (a backcasting experimeent a first vision building workshop
and an SRA workshop) The majority of the foresight process is, however, still to be implemented, and there are plans to further refine the SRF.
The planned foresight process (see Fig. 2) consists of a pre foresight phase and four foresight phases. Interestingly, a pilot call is part of the foresight process,
and will comprise targeted research within a two-year span in order to broaden the knowledge base in three areas:
foresight activities can find different roles and forms when dealing with co-ordination challenges. Such diversity of foresight activities indicates that it is relevant to tailor the foresight design
and management style to the case-specific context and to particular requirements of the participating organisations and related stakeholders.
Foresight supports the alignment of different research systems by Figure 2. Project phases of foresight in each of three cases selected. 198.
and their plans for Table 5. Ways in which foresight addresses co-ordination challenges in transnational research programming Co-ordination challenge Wood Wisdom-Net EMIDA Urban Joint
Three working groups with funding organissation were composed based on similar interests in future research topics Mapping of recent foresight exercises with support of FPU Project pays attention to research capacity
and access to research programmes and results across all countries Mapping and analysis of existing foresight exercises for urban regions and for other non-region specific topics relevant for urban development allows gaps
to be identified where additional foresight exercises may be needed Development of an SRF that sets out likely directiion of technological
and capabilities to benefit from planned programme Proposals for new/additional foresights aiming to cover identified gaps in future outlooks on regional
and publish shared priorities on a transnatiiona programme level Mapping of foresight exercises at all governance levels Establishment of a UEF,
close co-operation with China on foresight) Horizontal co-ordination Cross-feeding of research teams was encouraged by assessment of submitted issues
and supported novel research collaboration across research fields Foresight exercise is multi-disciplinary. It aims to include stakeholders from other disciplines in priority setting
Foresight efforts focus specifically on interfaces of those four pillars Urban Europe exchange platform aims amongst others at connecting various disciplines
which can change during process accordiin to upcoming needs Analysis of current time horizon of existing programmes reveals a lack of longer term foresights.
Foresights with a time horizon of 2050 and beyond are planned therefore Development of scenarios, desirable futures and pathways towards these futures for specific Urban Europe topics Use of a pilot call to improved understanding of future trends
and Urban Europe and ensuring a long-term integration of stakeholders in activities Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 199 increasing research capacity in a specific thematic area can also contribute to better understanding and aligning research systems.
and of research infrastructure planning with these programmmes The participation of the actors in research systems in a foresight process may also promote transparennc
Foresight may enhance vertical co-ordination by taking stock of previous anticipattor studies and existing visions for the future at regional, national and transnational level.
Horizontal coordinnatio can be enhanced by foresight by encouraging the sharing of research interests among research teams in different areas and disciplines.
Furthermore, comprehensive stocktaking on earlier foresight studies can be conducted to understand future developments and to position the programme in the light of other ongoing activities.
and engaging wide sets of stakeholdders foresight activities prepare the ground for positioonin and scoping the programme within the transnational research
Temporal co-ordination can be enhanced by foresight through the joint development of a vision for the future and of a roadmap towards it,
thus evolving towards a more continuous application of foresight. It can also mean the establishment of a flexible and adaptive approach to foresight,
which can change upcoming needs. Here, the establishment of stakeholder platforms for long-term stakeholder engagement in the process and knowledge and collaboration platforms for cumulating knowledge
In particuular the temporal co-ordination dimension calls for safeguarding the existence of a foresight function
In particulaar the role of a supporting tool like foresight for engaging and mobilising the innovation communities can be crucial for understanding
We consider that foresight holds promise for a structured and responsive process that efficiently mobillise stakeholders
Foresight supports a structured organisation of stakehollde involvement, orienting the efforts towards understanndin diverse interests and shared visions on future developments,
We first look at some principles for the use of foresight, drawing on the cases, and then explore more in detail how foresight can play a role as an integratto of different functions of transnational research programming.
Section 4 ends with a look at the implicatiion for research programming in and beyond Europe. 4. 1 Foresight principles for transnational research programming To be effective in supporting transnational research programming,
foresight activities need to address the 200. T. Ko nno la and K. Haegeman different dimensions of co-ordination challenges.
Against this backdrop, the design and management of foresight may benefit from some principles that support the attainmeen of the objectives of the entire programming initiative and support its legitimacy in the wider research and poliic landscape.
We crystallise three principles for foresiigh design and management in transnational research programming. 4. 1. 1 Scalable design for transnational initiatives.
which permits the decomposiitio of the foresight process into manageable sub-processes and enables transitions between different levels of abstraction by way of problem structuring and synthesis (Ko nno la et al. 2011).
and the organisatiio in parallel of foresight activities on selected Urban Europe topics. In Woodwisdom-Net, modularity was pursued, for example
capabilities and culture in transnational programming also calls for flexibility in the design and management of the foresight process.
On the eve of initiating a foresight exercise and scoping its research programme it is often premature for many national agencies to decide on their level of committmen to that programme and its planning.
Foresight can be structured in a way that allows flexibility in design to respond to the changing expectations of stakeholdders for instance including open access
the establishment of a small foresight team prepared to be adaptive and flexible depending on the changing conditions. search for a balance between planned foresight activities and expected additional non-defined activities of the FPU In the Urban Europe case,
and instruments to participate (such as foresights, joint calls, and the alignment of existing programmes) in variable geometry.
Furthermore, if one regards foresight as a creative process (Salo et al. 2004), then it may be impertinent to fix foresight objectives
and design for the duration of the Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 201 entire exercise,
if only because the foresight exercise produces information about the relevance and attainability of these very objectives.
those in charge of the foresight process should anticipate, and even prepare for, later modifications in the implementation plan.
The foresight literature contains several accounts of the tensions arising from attempts to map out and execute large-scale foresight exercises according to a clear‘bluepriint (Havas 2003).
Salo et al. 2004) argue that responsiveness to shifting objectives and stakeholder expectations should be regarded as a major concern
and even a key design variable in the planning and execution of foresight activities. The need for responsiveness by which they mean‘purposely designed managerial controls for making warranted mid-course adaptations to foresight objecttive
and implementation plans'depends on the envisaged role that is ascribed to a specific foresight activity in an evolving innovation environment.
Hence, while ensuring the scalable, fast and efficient implementation of a transnational foresight process by way of structured and parallel activities coordinated in different modules
it is also important leave room in the design to integrate clear phases that allow for redirectiin
and objectives of the entire project (see Fig. 3). 4. 2 Foresight as an integrator Transnational foresight activities may be seen to claim excesssiv resources
Hence, foresight can be seen as an integrator of other programming functions, which structures the engagement of stakeholders from different countries,
and speeds up the implementation (see Fig. 4). Achieving the benefits of foresight activities in support of the implementation of other programming functions is related to the appropriate positioning of foresight design and management in the overall programming process.
which are apparent in the implementation of transnational research programming and the consequent roles for foresight..
Participatory foresight creates wider awareness on the programme and prepares stakeholders to participate in other functions.
Towards this end foresight can facilitaat access to and co-ordination of different networks and databases of experts and other stakeholders.
and innovation systems Figure 3. Process and result flexibility in modular foresight design for transnational research programming. 202.
Foresight extends the sector and discipline focused expert databaase and thus provides opportunities to bring in new faces in incumbent collaborative networks,
and the development of joint knowledge repositories (see for instance the European foresight Platform). 34 Furthermoore foresight plays particularly a relevant role in learning on future developments in the areas where there is little
or no evidence-based record. By way of engaging stakeholders in the creation and codification of tacit knowledge (Nonaka 1994), foresight synthesises key findings for decision-makers from fragmented information and expert recommendations.
Hence, foresiigh can play a significant role of interface and sense-making between diverse sources of information and the decision-makers..
This risk of partiality can be limited by introducing a foresight approach into the process. Considering the national differences in foresight capabilities and capacities, particcula efforts in organising training35 for possible national coordinators could enhance the overall quality
and participation in transnational research programming, making use of existing initiatives such as the Forlearn Online foresight Guide (European commission 2012) or the UNIDO Technology foresiigh Guide (UNIDO 2012)..
Availability of IT solutions for process implementation. The transnational, efficient and effective engagement of numerous stakeholders may lead to time-consuming and resource-intensive processes.
in order to implement and evaluate the programme seem to call for sharing best practices Figure 4. Foresight as an integrator of different functions of transnational research programming.
Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 203 in appropriate applications for the benefit of different types of transnational research programming.
and the respective roles of foresight activities can be seen from the viewpoints of an individual programming project, of an instrument,
and the accumulation of foresight and other types of supporting knowledge through the shared repositories could benefit different types of activities in the realm of transnational research programming. 4. 3 Implications for research programming in Europe
(which is understood to include foresight and other forms of anticipatory intelligennce) The above-presented three foresight principles in this section are particularly relevant for JP,
as the JP instrument is based on variable geometry, voluntary particippatio and flexible implementation. The argument for using foresight as an integrator of transnational programming functions pleads for giving a more promineen role to forward-looking activities as an integrator of other framework conditions.
Finally, the ways in which foresight can accommodate the four dimensions of the co-ordination challenge may offer a more systematic way for JP to address these dimensions,
e g. to systematically involve regional and local levels in JP. The analysis and discussion may be of similar relevance to forms of transnational research programming between nations outside Europe
or when the research and innovation systems and capacities of the countries involved are highly diverse. 5. Conclusions Recent efforts in transnational research programming indicate that the mobilising effect of embedded foresight activities can lead to novel networking and cross-feeding of research and innovation
Against this background we explored how foresight activities embedded in transnational research programming can support those dimensions and functions.
This provided some evidence on a significant role for foresight in facilitating and integrating different functions of programming.
However, this requires that foresight and the principles we have outlined are integrated into the overall design and management from the outset of the programming activities.
Therefore, we suggest further research and piloting of general foresight principles and guidance for the efficient and flexible implementation of transnational research programming.
Towards this end, the further piloting of the principles and roles for foresight in transnational research programming should be enhanced,
and capacity in running, foresight projects through foresight training. Knowledge collected on pilots methodologies and understanding of transnational research programming needs to be accumulated, calling for institutionalised forms of knowledge repositories.
While choosing the perspective of embedding foresight in transnational programming rather than providing ad hoc support,
we run a risk of co-optation37 of foresight and consequent constraints to develop radically new alternattive or particularly bold programmes in terms of scale and ambition.
In this respect, particular design structures ensuring minimum autonomy in foresight activities and methodological choices (for instance, horizon scanning and generation of innovation ideas among a wide and diverse set of stakeholders) can alleviate the risk of co-optation,
Furthermore, the positioning of foresight 204. T. Ko nno la and K. Haegeman as an integrator of other programming functions can outweigh the risks
Finally, transnational programming in a non-European context may benefit even more from the capacity of foresight to act as an integrator,
Food Security and Climate change have no openness to other EU Member States. 7. Platforms collecting data on foresight exercises can offer deeper insights into possible and desired futures of research priorities, e g.<
<www. foresight-platform. eu>accessed 15 march 2012.8. The use of‘regional'in this paper is to be understood as‘geographically part of a nation'
Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 205 19. Based on Optimat et al. 2005), Anderson (2010), Chioncel and Cuntz (2012), European commission (2011), Seiser (2010) and the present authors'own expertise. 20.
however, too early to draw any conclusions on possible discrepancies between planning and implementtatio of foresight activities in this case. 30.
See<www. foresight-platform. eu>accessed 15 march 2012.35. An example is the generic online foresight training,
which has been developed as part of the European foresight Platform, targeting policy-makers at differeen policy-levels. 36. A set of examples of internet-based tools allowing for integration of data of all sorts in future-oriented technollog analysis can be found in Haegeman et al.
in press. 37. In particular, if the foresight function is tightly institutionalised, the established power structures and historical path dependencies related to routines and infrastructures may limit the ability of foresight activities to explore alternatives that differ strongly from current pathways.
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