Synopsis: Foresight:


Science.PublicPolicyVol37\5. Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-Pacific.pdf

Workshops to conduct the foresight process were held in the region. Four scenarios and six technology roadmaps for the region were developed.

B Nares Damrongchai is at the APEC Center for Technology foresight, National science Technology and Innovation policy Office, 73/1 Rama 6 Road, Rajdhevee, Bangkok 10400, Thailaand Email:

Ponpiboon Satangput was at APEC Center for Technology foresight. He is now at the Government Information technology Services, National science and Technology development Agency, 17th Floor, Bangkok Thai Tower Building, 108 Rangnam Rd, Phayatthai Ratchatewi, Bangkok 10400, Thailand;

He is currently the executive director of the APEC Center for Technology foresight and the director of Policy Research and Management at the National science Technology and Innovation policy Office, Bangkok,

Thailaand His work includes foresight research, training, and consulting internationally. His recent research interests incluude converging technologies to combat emerging infectiiou diseases and climate change.

From 2006 2009 he was a policy researcher at the APEC Center for Technollog Foresight, Bangkok, Thailand.

A major activity has been his association with the APEC Center for Technology foresight since its inception in 1998.

In 1997, he joined the Natioona Science and Technology development Agency (NSTDA) of Thailand as co-director of the APEC Center for Technology foresight,

This paper describes the conduct of this regional foresight project using a combination of foresight methods. Within the scope of existing and new technollog development to combat EID, the study proviide evidence of how the FTA can address societal issues and challenges,

NEMS based Biochip) Figure 1. Examples of converging technologies, APEC Center for Technology foresight (www. apecforesight. org) 2006 Source:

Policy implications With strong user inputs in scientific and managemeen issues, the foresight project appears to have high potential to inspire

Even before the projecct'conclusion a number of activities related to the foresight project had been initiated that also raised the awareness in biosecurity throughout the region.

Subsequently, Dr Okamoto from RIKEN, who was a key contributor to the foresight project, also addressed the possibility of using one of the RIKEN research bases as an Towards low cost, high sensitivity and specificity, rapid,

in order to make the best use of the foresight roadmaps, the results should be disseminaate to a broad range of (and certainly to those in positions of authority) stakeholders.

References APEC Center for Technology foresight 2006. Future Fuel Technollogy Summary Report of an APEC-wide Foresight study.

Bangkok: APEC Center for Technology foresight. APEC Center for Technology foresight, 2008. Roadmapping Converging technologies to Combat Emerging Infectious Diseasses Bangkok:

APEC Center for Technology foresight. APEC Leaders'Declaration, APEC, 2006. 14th APEC Economic Leaders'Meeting, Ha Noi Declaration, Ha Noi, Viet nam, 18 19 november 2006.

Available at<http://www. apec. org/apec/leaders declarations/2006. html>,last accessed 20 february 2010. Nordmann, Alfred 2004.

Converging technologies: Shaping the Future of European Societies. Report by High-level Expert Group on‘Foresighting the New technology Wave'.

Suggestions from a 2020 Technology foresight: Technological Approaches to Combating Emerging Infectious diseases (EIDS. Paper presented at the APEC Scenario Workshop on Converging technologies to combat EIDS,

Some advances in the practice of foresight. Paper presented at EU US Seminar: New Technollog Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain.

World health organization 2006. Assessing vaccine-preventable diseases burden and immunization impact. Available at<http://www. who. int/immunization monitoring/burden/en/>,last accessse August 2008


Science.PublicPolicyVol37\6. User-driven innovation.pdf

from various disciplines (e g. design, foresight, fault tree analysis, anthropology etc. in order to support user-driven innovation.


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\1. The role of FTA in responding to grand challenge.pdf

One particular feature of the 2011 FTA Conference was the organisation of two invitation-only sessions devoted to good practice in foresight for policy.

The criteria identified as being important for foresight specialists to achieve effective policy engagement were deep knowledge in the relevant field, a‘roadmap'style of thinking

Embedding foresight into and across national, and increasinngl transnational, research and innovation systems can be seen to offer the most effective approach to meeting crosscutting societal challenges.

and businesses to shift FTA ACTIVITIES from individual large-scale foresight programmes and projects, to investing in developing in-house competencies for coping with sudden change.

and also the challenges posed to foresight design and management. They elaborate three central guiding foresight principles:

scalability, modularity and flexibility. The value of novel approaches to FTA to more effectivvel identify,

They draw on the foresight exercise‘Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges'(Boden et al. 2010) to illustrate how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues, the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters,

The experience of FTA practitioners in implementing foresight tools provides further evidence of the effectivenees of particular tools in meeting particular challenges in the most appropriate ways.

Cuhls, Bunkowski and Behlau provide a case study of the Fraunhofer Institutes'action-oriented foresight process of using global challenges to identify and implemeen research themes for future markets.

Nehme, de Miranda Santos, Filho and Coelho provide a case study of the application of foresight by the Brazilian Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), over the past nine years.

<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/intro. html>accessed March 2012.138. M. Boden et al.

<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed March 2012. The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges. 139


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\10. Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study.pdf

Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study to advise decision-makers on policy and strategy Claudio Chauke Nehme1, 2,,

chauke@cgee. org. br This paper addresses the challenges of communicating the results of a strategic foresight exercise

Foresight recommendations are shaped and derived according to the nature and complexity of the themes being considered, the level of stakeholder participatiio and, quite frequently, the communication skills of those managing the process.

Efforts towards better communication among participants are decisive for successful foresight exercises. This paper stresses that the intangibles are important outcomes,

foresight; decision-making; strategic intelligence; communication; mind-set transformation. 1. Introduction Exercises to explore the future are considered to be importaan for strategic planning, decision-making support and for public policy formulation,

Foresight seeks to provide a strategic perspective for the present, with knowledge of future possibilities, building commitment to and coordination on national or institutioona priorities.

Vecchiato and Roveda (2010) prefer to use the term‘strategic foresight'rather than the simpler‘foresight

Strategic foresight is defined by Slaughter (1999) as the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view

Strategic foresight exercises can be developed by means of different approaches, dealing with aspects that might include the following:

journals. permissions@oup. com experience dealing with complex strategic foresight exercises, developed by the Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), Brazil.

strategic foresight exercises (future studies; strategic evaluation of large programs and projects; information and knowledge diffusion. It is considdere to be an interface organization in the ST&I environmment having responsibility for articulating the views of the government, private sector and academia,

From 2001 to the present, the CGEE has conducted nearly 400 strategic foresight exerciise and strategic evaluation studies, mobilizing more than 2000 experts per annum from an average of 300 institutions.

but which emerges over the course of the foresight process and cannot be formalized as a deliverabbl (European commission 2011).

and foresight practitioners should pay heed to their generation as strategic foresight exercises develop. The process of sharing experiences, collective learning and understanding, creation of shared commitmeen to the main decisions to be made

Out-of-the-box thinking is importaan in a strategic foresight exercise. It is important for everyone participating in a given foresight exercise to not be afraid to attempt new ways of thinking (Kelley and Littman, 2001.

Individual and group abilities must be managed to provide ways and means of overcoming difficulties and limits associated with their culture, knowleddge training and perceptions and beliefs.

As mentioned before, the wisdom of conducting given strategic foresight exercises, irrespective of its complexity, lies in the ability to develop tailor-made methodologies,

A key factor in success is to start the exercise after a robust collective planning Step in the pre foresight phase of this methodological approach (see Section 4),

A case study of a strategic organizational foresight execise at the Brazilian Innovation Agency (FINEP), which focused on the knowledge required for a given exercise to achieve the desired outcomes is discussed in Section 5. Finally,

social engagement and foresight are relatively recent subjects of study which present controversial points. As far as governance is concerned

In this sense, shaping the future from the perception of present opportunities is, broadly speaking, known as foresight.

In addition, one of the characterristic of the foresight approach involves the ample possibilities offered to investigate

and incorporates different visions into the foresight process, different points of view, contributing to the success of the entire exercise and to the quality of the final results.

at the end of a foresight exercise, for stakeholders to say that‘the process was as more important than the product'.

From this brief introduction about the environment of governance social engagement and foresight, it can be seen that the discussion about intangibles should be focused more on state-of-the-practices than the state-of-the-art.

This paper will focus on strategic foresight, taking advantaag of CGEE's background in conducting strategic foresiigh exercises and strategic evaluation studies during the past decade, all of

Beside the fact that the strategic foresight methodologgica approach adopted in this paper will be presented later it is relevant to anticipate certain aspects more related to intangibles.

which have been identified, is observed often among participants in the initial phase of the foresight exercise. This anxiety must be controlled by those coordinating the project,

Foresight exercises help to overcome these limits and build a convergent reasoning process based on best practiice in organizational learning.

Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 247. The culture of looking ahead, having the past as an important reference..

Efficiencies linked to foresight exercises are associated usually with some of the intangibles that are generated, if not with all of them.

For the sake of clarifying how distinctive a strategic foresight exercise might be, demands may be associated with innovation, competitiveness, long-term government planning, subsidies to S&t public policies,

In the last three years, CGEE has conducted some relevant national strategic foresight exercises, all involving ST&I policy,

11 strategic foresight exercises to enhance the competitiveenes of the Brazilian industrial sector in the global economy:

shoes, furniture, automotive, cosmetics, marine, industrial automation, civil construction, medical equipment, plastics, furniture and aeronautics..Strategic foresight for FINEP (the case study of this paper) and the Sa o

Strategic foresight exercise for the sustainable food production process in Brazil..Strategic foresight for the National Council for Scientific and Technological development (CNPQ.

3. The value of out-of-the-box thinking in a foresight exercise The concept of out-of-the-box thinking adopted in this paper is related to learning organization theory (Tosey 2005.

It is associated directly with the mind-set concept. Brummer's thoughts about mind-sets in management are interesting

In foresight exercises developed by CGEE, mind-set revision involves the participation of experts and stakeholdders applying a variety set of methods and tools,

and for applyiin a variety of methods and tools to bring the main issues impacting a given foresight exercise to the table.

and other stakeholders. 4. Strategic foresight methodological approach This section will explore the main aspects of the strategic foresight methodological approach.

and conducting foresight exerciise according to the CGEE's values and institutional mission (Santos et al. 2004).

as well as practical orientattion contained in the Handbook of Knowledge society Foresight (Miles et al. 2002) and in Godet (2001).

which comprises technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, technollog assessment, and foresight. In addition, this methodological approach was based on the perception that decision-making emerges from a negotiaatio between multiple actors.

This perception is the key point of the forsight methodology, which can be defined as a:..

foresight is considered to be an activity connecctin three different dimensions of the same process: thinking, debating and shaping the future.

and plan the foresight exercise with a sense of anticipation, pointing out where participants find the most difficult points

Figure 1. Strategic foresight methodological approach. Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 249 The foresight exercise itself comprises three distinct phases:

initial, main and commitment, (see Fig. 1, block 3). In the initial phase, the baseline of the exercise, usually mapping

lies outside of foresight activity governaance The client and stakeholders are in charge of implemeentin the recommendations and corresponding strategies.

we now present an organizational foresight exercise developed for FINEP, the main federal S&t funding agency in Brazil,

and the pressure from the stakeholders for more efficiency have led the former president of the agency to carry out a foresight study with a clear message of urgency:‘

discussion and prioritization of results in an integrated format Analyses of recommendations of each panel compared to previous Brazilian foresight studies and international information Final report and dissemination of results Biotechnology Mapping

and nanotechnologies in selected countries Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 251 supporting basic and applied research;

This activity was part of the methodology preparation of the strategic foresight exercise. The main ideas and designed strategy on how to implement out-of-the-box thinking at FINEP are shown in Fig. 3. A vision of a possible, successful future for FINEP,

observation dimensions and facts related to Future challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 253 representatives. The interviews were structured semi

FINEP's SMP was developed as the main outcome of the organizational foresight exercise, which considered future trends in ST&I and their possible long-term impacts on the agency.

Thus, the use of the conceptual and methodological approach of strategic foresight to set strategic priorities and action plans

Strategic foresight proved to be a powerful instrumeen for long-term planning, combining the conceept of strategy and foresight, relying on a diversity of methods and techniques and,

above all, having flexibility and resilience in its application, which enabled it to be adapted to the specific needs of each study..

Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 255 6. Lessons learned and main conclusions The items briefly discussed here summarize the main lesson learned,

The main challenge is to introduce long-term perception and analysis to foster strategic foresight of interest to the state more than a given government structure.

Competitive intelligence approaches produce better engagement than strategic foresight. Private sector stakeholders tend to become very active

representatives from universities and research institutions tend to impose barriers to accepptin strategic foresight activities. Time is usually not a problem

Foresight exercises are exposed usually to some dangerrou pitfalls throughout their development. It is imporrtan to note,

Foresight exercises and innovaatio strategies are interconnected and it is imporrtan to stress the possible influence and impacts from other business segments.

when foresight exerccise and innovation strategies are applied to new future possibilities in academia. Some of the intangible gains must be highlighted

The establishment of a foresight culture within organizattion or industries, which could result in a better decision-making process.

2011)‘ Strategic foresight applied to the management plan of an innovation development agency',Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24: 267 83.

Conway, M. and Voros, J. 2002)‘ Implementing organisational foresight: a case study in learning from the future',paper presented at International Conference Probing the Future:

Developing Organisational Foresight in the Knowledge Economy, held Glasgow, Scotland, 11 3 july 2002. Cuhls, K. and Grupp, H. 2001)‘ Alemanha:

De Geus, A. 2002) Tools for Foresight: Planning for the Unpredictable Future. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business Press.

Eriksson, E. A. and Weber, K. M. 2008)‘ Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 462 82.

2011)‘ The FOR-LEARN Online foresight Guide, '<http://forlearn. jrc. ec. europa. eu/guide/0 home/index. htm>accessed 12 december 2011.

Habegger, B. 2010)‘ Strategic foresight in public policy: reviewiin the experiences of the UK, Singapore and The netherlands',Futures, 42:49 58.

The case for integral foresight',paper presented at Foresight International Seminar: From Theory to Practice, Brasilia, Brazil, 16 7 december 2010.

a simple guide to successful foresigght'Foresight: the Journal of Future Studies, 1: 5 9. Irwin, A. 2004)‘ Expertise and experience in the governance of science:

Johnston, R. 2010)‘ Methods and tools for breaking mindsets and bringing new perspectives to the table',paper presented at Foresight International Seminar:

Miles, I.,Harper, J. C.,Georgiou, L.,Keenan, M. and Popper, R. 2008)‘ The many faces of foresight'.

I. and Popper, R. eds) The Handbook of Technology foresight: Concepts and Practice, pp. 3 23.

Miles, I.,Keenan, M. and Kaivo-Oja, J. 2002) Handbook of Knowledge society Foresight. Manchester: Prest.

Popper, R. 2008)‘ Foresight methodology'.'In: Georgiou, L.,Harper, J. C.,Keenan, M.,Miles, I. and Popper, R. eds) The Handbook of Technology foresight:

Concepts and Practice, pp. 44 88. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. Porter, A l.,Ashton, W. B.,Clar, G.,Coates, J. F. et al.

Vecchiato, R. and Roveda, C. 2010)‘ Foresight in corporate organizations',Technology analysis & Strategic management, 22:99 112.

Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 257


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\11. Head in the clouds and feet on the ground.pdf

Head in the clouds and feet on the ground: Research priority setting in China Mats Benner1, Li Liu2,


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\2. Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles.pdf

foresight; technology assessment. 1. Introduction Recent years have seen a great deal of discussion on how science, technology and innovation (STI) systems might be reoriented to better address several grand challenges that affect not only contemporary societies but also the future of human civilisation itself.

of strategic foresight, forecasting and technology assessment. These are oriented future processes that offer policy -and decision-makers the potential to look across (disruptive) transformations

and practice for thinking about the future something that is often termed a‘foresight culture'Enhance the standing

In fact, foresight activities is one of the six joint programming framework conditions8 for which analytical guidelines are developed to facilitate the planning and implementation of joint research programmes (ERAC-GPC 2010).

The importance of transnational foresights is highlighted also specifically for joint programming (Acheson et al. 2007. In this regard, the importance of the informing role and benefits from FTA are recognised already in the new instruments.

Enhancement of the strategic capabilities of individuals and organisatiion through the development of a foresight culture can be an important side effect of any FTA ACTIVITY provided appropriate provisions are made in the design of the new instruments.

as well as regular interactions among stakeholders that allow active engagement and understanding of foresight philosophy and practices.

This would require, at the least, a dedicated preparaator phase to enable training in foresight and trust building through regular interactions among stakeholders that would allow an understanding of foresight philosophhy roles and practices.

Such a preparation phase is hardly foreseen in the design of or launched new initiativves such as the Lund Declaration11 that shall be the basis for designing the EU's future policies for research and innovation.

2. Foresight activities; 3. Evaluation of joint programmes; 4. Funding of cross-border research by national or regional authorities;

Barre',R. and Keenan, M. 2008)‘ Revisiting foresight rationalles What lessons from the social sciences and humanities?'.

Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises',Futures, 36:46 65. Hall, B. H. and Rosenberg, N. 2010) Handbook of the Economics of Innovation.


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\3. Coping with a fast-changing world.pdf

*Jennifer Cassingena Harper2, Totti Ko nno la 3 and Vicente Carabias Barcelo'4 1ait Austrian Institute of technology, Department of Foresight & Policy development, Donau-City

Transformations linked to disruptive events are causing a shift in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA ACTIVITIES from individual large-scale foresight actions to smaller in-house exercises and capacity building.

and more recently there has been a growing trend to use foresight to open up broader and exploratory debates,

reflecting the theoretical premises of prevailing foresight practice with its emphasis on systemic aspects and networkking Papers with a strong emphasis on the innovation system, tend to also address other dimensions and their interplay with the coordination mode.

or foresight activities tailored to exploring the future in the context of science, technology and innovation (STI) policies and achieving impact on national innovation systems (NIS).

despite reporting on experiences derived from a single foresight exercise, indicate increasing evidence of institutionalised forms of FTA.

They suggest changing this anticipatory thinking by transforming the foresight process into a horizontal organisational function that permeaate all levels of the parallel innovation process.

2012) report on the setting up of foresight units within several departments at the federal level in Canada.

2011) address the importance of engaging stakeholders in foresight exercises from the very beginning in order to improve support for policy options and their implications.

We can conclude that a substantial benefit can be derived from such networks, in particular for smaller countries or countries with a less developed foresight and anticipatory intelligeenc culture in general.

Tiits and Kalvet (2011) learned from recent foresight exercises in Estonia that the Table 4. Diversity of FTA systems in practice Approaches in FTA systems Transformation types Governance modes Organisational models

and policy roadmapping activities‘Linking territorial foresight and urban planning'Ferna'ndez Gu ell et al. 2012) Addresses spatial dimension in gradual transformation, combining both reactive and deliberate approaches in scenario work that integrate spatial dimensions of urban planning Elements of different modes of governance addressed.

For instance, integration in view of central planning vs. competition in view of market forces defining urban development Individual regional foresight project‘Embedding foresight in transnatiiona research programming'Deals with deliberate approach to both rapid

Recent experience from Germany'Warnke (2011) Focuses on deliberate design of transformations from viewpoint of post-Foresight phase

and in particular policy strategies Various governance modes are addressed in examination of instituutiona change for uptake of foresight results in design of systemic innovation policy Discusses how the findings of foresight project are embedded in institutional structures and policy design 160.

Moreover, they conclude that foresight exercises carried out in smaller countries require international support. International cooperaation in particular when assisted by FTA networks,

and businesses to invest less in individual large-scale foresight programmes and projects, and to opt more for developing in-house competencies for coping with sudden change.

as reflected, for instance, in the creation of new dedicated horizonscanning centres, the strengthening of parliamentary technology assessment offices and the establishment of dedicated foresight units in firms and public administration.

In this context, it is imperative that foresight initiatives to address global challenges are carried out at regular intervals to build a common understanding of current situatiion

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. 2012)‘ On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues',Science and Public policy, 39: 208 21.

Brummer, V.,Ko nno la, T. and Salo, A. 2008)‘ Foresight within Era nets: Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.

Butter, M.,Brandes, F.,Keenan, M.,Popper, R.,Giesecke, S.,Rijkers-Defrasne, S.,Braun, A. and Crehan, P. 2009)‘ Monitoring foresight activities in Europe and the rest

of the world',Final Report of the European foresight monitoring Network EFMN. EUR 24043 EN. Brussels: European commission.

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From trend based logics to open foresight',Technology analysis & Strategic management, 20: 321 36. Dervin, B. 1998)‘ Sense-making theory and practice:

An overview of user interests in knowledge seeking and use',Journal of Knowledge management, 2: 36 46.

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