This biannual conference provides a common platform for user communities of foresight, forecasting and technology assessment to reflect on these challenges.
and shape future technological developmennts mainly, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment. The FTA labbe brings together a set of widely differing techniqques
and applying foresight methodologies in the EU. He has a masters degree in business economics and in marketing,
Dr Jennifer Cassingena Harper is the director of policy within the Malta Council for Science and Technology with responsibility for national research and innovation strategy and foresight.
What has been accepted by many FTA practitioners as‘post-foresight, 'and hence not their responsibility, should now be recognised as an integral part of the FTA PROCESS.
The paper by van Rij looks at horizon scanning from an adaptive foresight angle by combining the experiences
In general, the paper also recommends connecting horiizo scans to more focused foresight activities. It concludes with a proposal to build a European netwoor for using joint scan data
Adaptive foresight is applied by Abadie et al. to the highly uncertain environment of the European creative content industries as part of the European Perspectives on the Information society project.
The paper by Calof and Smith contributes to the definition of successful foresight studies by identifyiin a set of critical success factors for governmentlle foresight
They conclude that foresight prograamme need a clearly identified client, a clear link with today's policy agenda and propose some reseaarc questions to further analyse these critical succees factors.
Their analysis is based on the results of two surveys of selected international foresight practitiioner and leading foresight organisations, conduccte by Canada's Office of the National science Advisor and the Telfer School of management at the University of Ottawa,
Damrongchai et al. describe an appropriate mix of foresight methods that was applied in a research projeec of the Asia-pacific Economic cooperation aiming to better understand the complexity of emerging infectious diseases (EID.
Guide to Research Infrastruccture Foresight. Brussels: European commission. Popper, R 2008. Foresight methodology. In The Handbook of Technology foresight:
Concepts and Practices, L Georghiou, J C Harper, M Keenan, I Miles and R Popper (eds.),
pp 44 88. Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar. Porter, A l and S w Cunningham 2005.
Systems thinking for foresight, Phd thesis. PREST, Manchester Business school, University of Manchester. Scapolo, F and A l Porter 2008.
Foresight in a nonprofit organisation: a case of the Technology Promotion Association (Thailand Japan. Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis,
This paper discusses the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool for future-oriented technology analysis activities, such as technology foresight and scenario building.
N 2004, THE ERA NET FORSOCIETY1 began its mission to develop sustainable cooperation between national foresight programming bodies in 15 European countries.
One of the aims of this network was to initiate joint transnational (foresight activities which combined the foresight activities of at least 3 5 of the foresight programming bodies.
To achieve this a pilot project the Joint Horizon project was launched, focused on assessing the feasibility
it was envisaged that it would be less difficult to create a joint approach in contrast to foresight activiitie with a more specific focus.
and to identify gaps in the knowledge agenda (this definition has been derived from the UK Foresight Horizon scanning Centre (HSC) and Horizon scan Netherlands),
and sciennc and technology (S&t) foresight and other FTA TOOLS by its wide scope and its function to envisage the complexity of future societal problems
Departmental Victor van Rij is senior advisor foresight of the Knowledge Directtorat of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science in The netherlands.
and internatioona foresight projects as consultant and leads a pilot project joining the horizon scans of the UK,
Denmark and the Netherlannds Before he became the senior advisor he assisted the national coordinator for science and technology foresight of The netherlands Royal Academy of Science.
The NISTEP exercise combines this broad-scope foresight with a thorough analysis of strengths and weaknesses of Japanese research and development (R&d
2006) or have carried recently out scan-like exercises that were used solely to design foresight programs (Germany
Well-known examples include the Internaationa Council for Science (2002) exercise that focused on societal issues and research agenda settiin and also its foresight analysis (International council for science, 2004.
and create a common corpus for further analysis a joint database was developed on basis of the Sigma Scan of the UK Foresight HSC.
An attempt was made also to select some issue clusters with estimated high impact to investigate the usefulnees of joint horizon scanning as preparation for more in-depth foresight to design common policies
and foresight are aimed explicitly at developing resillien policies that are adaptive to changing and uncerrtai futures.
In addition to the scanning and foresight there is a large effort to spread good practiic to other parts of government and society.
Horizon scanning can therefore be seen as an adapttiv foresight (Eriksson and Weber, 2006) instrumeen that deliberately challenge policy-makers to look at the uncertainties and the unexpected and deveelo resilient policies towards sustainability.
and sets of issues which cross policy domains for further focused foresight (improving the scoping of these foresiigh activities) and research.
which adapted the issue descriptions to the Danish situation after Horizon scanning can be seen as an adaptive foresight instrument that deliberately challenges policy-makers to look at uncertainties
more focused foresight and the formulation of recommendations for research and policy. Next to this, a more client-oriented‘scan proof'approach was developed
and intensive literature surveys (including foresight, future studies and even science fiction) and panel groups. Horizon scanning seeks to identify what in The netherlands scan are described as potential PTOS
An important tool of these sector counciil was participative foresight that developed over time and was used to influence decision-makers in government, research and society in a futureorieente setting.
COS had the task of facilitating cross-departmental foresight and identifying crosscutting departmental themes; the horizon scan started in 2004 to guide this search in a systematic way.
Impact Although there are many unresolved methodological difficulties in assessing the impact of foresight (Barre and Keenan 2006), also due to more general problems around the interaction of scientific advice, government and society (De Wit, 2005) it is clear that horizon scanning is seen as a valued but also vulnerable learning process (DEFRA,
The report contained recommendations for Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 15 specific foresight activities which still have to be executed.
but also that the shared scan data provide a common basis for further joint foresight to develop joint research programs and even policies.
and closely connected to the national foresight programme. In the Netherlaand the function started in connection to the foresiigh function
when problems have accumulated this picture can be used to scope further (foresight activities to align key stakeholders
Available at<http://www. foresight. gov. uk/Horizon%20scanning%20centre/index. asp>,last accessed 1 june 2009.7.
Available at<ftp://ftp. cordis. europa. eu/pub/foresight/docs/keytechnoologiesreport. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
<http://cordis. europa. eu/foresight/kte expert group 2005. htm>,last accessed 1 Februuar 2010.10. The European Information Network on New and Changing Health Technologies.
Availabbl at<http://www. cs. um. edu. mt/gpac1/Teaching/Foresight/Papers/Horizonscanning. doc>,last accessed 1 october 2008.
Adaptive foresight Navigating, the complex landscape of policy strategies. Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
European commission, Directorate-General for Research Scientiifi and Technological foresight 2006. Creative system disrupttion towards a research strategy beyond Lisbon, Report of the Key technologies Expert Group.
Available from<ftp://ftp. cordis. europa. eu/pub/foresight/docs/key-technologiesrepportpdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
an International Perspecctiv on National foresight Studies. Paris: International council for science. Available at<http://www. icsu. org/Gestion/img/ICSU DOC DOWNLOAD/22 dd file spru07 02-Report. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Foresight analysis. Available at<http://www. icsu. org/Gestion/img/ICSU DOC DOWNLOAD/371 dd file foresight analysis. pdf>,last accessse 1 june 2009.
Map of levels of complexity and indetermiinatio for foresight studies. Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
A Comprehensive analysis of Science and Technollog Benchmarking and Foresight, NISTEP report 99. Tokyyo NISTEP. Available from:<
Criteria for improovin the business impact of foresight at Deutsche bank: lessons learnt in mapping trends. Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
Technology foresight directorate of the office of the national science advisor. Available from<http://www. techforesight. ca/Publications/Whatbroadsecuritychallenges Maycanadaface. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009. van Rij, V 2008.
http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries: anticipating value chain transformations and need for policy action Fabienne Abadie,
Michael Friedewald and K Matthias Weber This paper discusses the approach adopted to carry out a techno-economic foresight on the creative content industries, within the European Perspectives on the Information society project.
the embedding in an adaptive foresight framework and the implementation of a real-time Delphi which lead to interesting methodological lessons.
The impact of the foresight on policy was limited as it did not lead to direct policy measures,
Matthias Weber is at the Austrian Institute of technology, Departtmen Foresight and Policy development, Donau-City-Strasse 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria;
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 20 with the creative environment in which content activiitie unfold that make the creative content sector a fertile ground for radical innovations or disruptions
As a consequence, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES like foresight have gained growing attention in recent years in the EU and worldwide,
The methodoloog developed was based on the adaptive foresight framework in order to do justice to both the explorrator and the policy-oriented nature of the exerccis (Eriksson et al.,
we preseen our methodology, analysing its most important Fabienne Abadie is a scientific officer at the Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies workiin on techno-economic foresight studies and the impact of ICTS on the Information society.
and working on the German National foresight Process. He has coordiinate a project on EPIS and several studies on ambient intelligence for the European commission.
Much of his research work builds on foresight-type of approaches which aim to support the formattio of policy strategies and associated governance models.
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 21 elements and showing how the implementation of those elements in combination enables us to disentanngl the complexity of the disruptive forces influenccin a sector
adapted from Wiesand and Söndermann (2005) Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 22 a mass audience.
Adaptive foresight applied to creative content Choice of methodology In order to achieve our objective of delivering forwaardlooking intelligence on the future evolution of the creative content industries,
we opted for an adaptiiv foresight process: adaptive in terms of stressing the need to adapt to changing contextual developmeent (as opposed to stressing the ability to shape the future), in terms of assigning iterative monitoring and learning a central role in foresight,
and in terms of adding a targeted strategy process to the usual open participatory processes of anticipation (Eriksson et al.,
experts) Workshop (stakeholders) Workshop (restricted, client) Impact assessment Figure 2. Overview of methodology building blocks Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010
and building trust and awareness are part Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 24 of the equation.
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 25 and related variants, uncertain issues, potential disrupttion and the likelihood of possible identified trends/issues.
No consensus could be reached for the theses printed in italics Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science
The addition of a scenario process emerged at that point as a necessary new building block to our adaptiiv foresight methodology.
get a life Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 27 promises associated with user created content,
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 28 Step 5: Policy analysis Our adaptive foresight on the creative content industrrie was concluded with a policy analysis,
aimed at deriving policy options for a thriving creative conteen sector in Europe in the future. This was done in closed discussion with the client, i e.
2008) Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 29 mediating between skills and demand for skills.
and analysed in this paper is anchored in the adaptive foresight framework, which enables us to reconcile the exploratory nature of the exercise
where the fast pace of change can rapidly make any foresight outcomes obsolete. As to the adequacy of the methodology for shapiin a vision of the creative content sector as such, we can conclude that the process helped raise key issues and controversies relevant to the sector as depicted by the four scenarios.
This is coherent with the methodological approach of adaptive foresight that foresees a phase of internal debate of policy implications by the client (or other stakeholder),
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 30 With regard to the impact assessment aspect of the methodology
Finally, the creative content sector foresight becaam a particular challenge because of the high degrre of uncertainty in all (technological, economic, social and structural) dimensions,
Adaptive foresight. Navigatiin the complex landscape of policy strategies. Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75 (4), 462 482.
Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic thinking and Policy, 9 (2), 27 35. Gordon, T J and A Pease 2006.
Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decisiionmaking. Futures, 38 (8), 908 924.
http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Critical success factors for government-led foresight Jonathan Calof and Jack E Smith This paper reports on an integrated
research program involving three related studies that examined successful foresight programs. It analyzes the key factors that appear to determine whether or not foresight,
once launched by a government, can be successful. The study was performed by a team of researchers in Canada in the period 2005 2007.
appropriate budget and techniques alone are insufficient factors to explain the success of foresight programs. The interview results indicate that success is defined ultimately as the impact of the foresight exercise on government policy,
and as the growth of the foresight function. Taken together, the results should help organizations establish the parameters for a successful foresight program.
ANADA HAS DEVOTED considerable enerrg to understanding the whys and wherefoore of foresight, largely as a prelude to asking what would be useful to do
and how it might be resourced and scoped to connect to emerging poliic challenges. A review of the literature reveals much in the way of foresight methodology
and the rationale for foresight but little about the factors that lead to foresight success. As will be reported later in this paper, even the concept of
what constitutes foresiigh success does not appear to be well defined. This paper reports on two related studies that examiin successful foresight programs.
It analyzes the key operational success factors that appear to determiin whether or not foresight,
once launched by a government, can be successful and why. In this approoach we are not attempting to question the degree to which the prevailing political-foundational conteex is supportive,
since we wish to focus on the determiinant of success once the basic context has already
Althooug there can be a wide range of benefits associatte with the foresight process, all interviewees mentioned the importance of the results of foresight being used to inform
or guide policy decisions. Thus, program impact via policy appears to be the most important macro-objective for foresight.
This makes sense not just because of the alignment of interrest but also because, in the present era of public funding accountability, remaining viable in the long term seems to be a critical indicator of success. In terms of critical success factors it was interestiin to note that all the studies showed that foresight delivery
and reporting methodologies were very similar around the world and so best methods practiic is spreading rapidly within the foresight communnity Thus,
although the methodology of foresight study and focus is important, it is insufficient as an indicator of success. Eight factors were identified as the critical keys to success in government-led foresight programs:
Focus on a clearly identified client. Establish a clear link between foresight and todaay'policy agenda.
C Jonathan Calof (corresponding author) and Jack E Smith are at the Telfer School of management, Desmarais Building, Universiit of Ottawa, 55 Laurier Avenue East, Ottawa K1n
6n5, Canadda Emails: calof@telfer. uottawa. ca and jesmith@telfer. uottawa. ca. This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technollog Analysis:
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 32 Nurture direct links to senior policy-makers.
Integrate stakeholders into foresight programs. Take advantage of the existence of, or create, a national local academic receptor and training capacity.
which enable foresight to be launched successful once by government, we are less clear about the necessary preconditions for initiating foresight that can be positioned for success. Thus,
we conclude the paper by identifying a series of questions that will require further research to confiir the influence of political-foundational
and mandate factors on foresight structure, delivery strategies and operational positioning. Methodology The primary study methodology was interviews with the directors of successful foresight programs to learn from them what factors led to success and, of course,
how they defined success. The first step was then to identify successful foresight programs. Thirty experts from ten countries were sent a brief questionnaire
and asked what they thought were the best contemporary foresight organizations, and which factors were instrumental in their assessment of those organizations.
About 15 experts from ten countries and five internaationa organizations responded. In the second phase, we examined the institutions viewed as having the best foresight practices
and we conducted detailed phone and/or email interchanges and interviiew trying to establish their reasons for success (how they evolved,
The interviews were designed also to elicit the institutions'perception of what constitutes foresight success. Organizations
and representatives interviewed incluuded Forfas in Ireland, the National Institute for S&t policy (NISTEP) in Japan, the Asia-pacific Economic cooperation (APEC) Center for Technoloog Foresight in Thailand, Finnsight 2015 (encompasssin a mix of Nokia
and a leader in regional foresight in Spain. In the next phase, nine foresight institutions identiffie during the first study were contacted,
direct contact was established then and we then wrote to them requesting additional information, both to confiir the results from the first study and to obtain more detail on motivations, budgets, results etc.
The results of the interviews were examined by an expert group who in turn selected commonly recurring comments made by the foresight directors that appeaare to be critical success factors.
Foresight: how is defined success? At the most basic level, success can be defined as attainnmen of the foresight programs goals.
The problle is that, as past studies have found, there are numerous and diverse goals (see Table 1). Ladikas
and Decker (2004) similarly identified the broad impacts of foresight exercises which they divided into technological/scientific aspects
one of the objectives of the research was to look at how the practitioners of foresight defined primary program success. After a comprehensive reviie of foresight evaluation
he combines research and consultiin in competitive intelligence, foresight and management insight in the creation of the university's management insiigh program.
Since founding the Office of Technology foresight at the National research council in 2002, he has led or been an advisor to collaborative foresight projects in several emergiin science and technology (S&t) domains such as:
biosysteemics nano bio info convergence; bio-products; future fuels for APEC economies; animal health; bio-health innovattio and stewardship,
He maintains active connecttion with foresight organizations in Europe, Asia, the US and Brazil. Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,
as well as the integrity of the processes employed: e g. debates, inclusiveness, actor alignment etc. and foresiigh impact in terms of learning effects,
Foresight programmes are evaluated usually in terms of the achievement of initial objectives and the scale and nature of direct, anticipated impacts.
both direct and indirect, associated with foresight exercises. Howevver what should be the dominant benefit of foresigght For determining success we need to clearly identify
and articulate the intended direct benefits of foresight. Georghiou and Keenan (2004) recognized this when they wrote that:
Despite the spread of foresight experience across Europe and beyond, there has not so far Table 1. Foresight:
FTA objectives reported by the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN)* A review by the authors of reports on mapping foresight by the EFMN reveals the wide range of objectives that different nations
and members of the European community have used to guide their foresight design Quality of products Produce future-oriented materials for the system to use Development of reference materials for policy-makers and other innovation actors More informed science,
repositioning of old ones Establishment of communications structures between innovation actors Support the empowerment of (innovation and futures) systems actors Contribute towards the development of actor identities Foresight provides many opportunities for enhanced
and experiences Highlighting the need for systemic approaches to both policy making and innovation Stimulation of others to conduct their own foresight exercise after being inspired Accumulation of relevant experience in how to think about the future
and using foresight tools to do so Enhanced reputational position and positive image of those running a foresight exercise Better understanding of a territory's strengths and competencies Finally,
most foresight projects are designed explicitly to appeal to policy-makers'needs for more certainty, or reduced levels of risk, even about prospective situations or events that contain inherently unpredictable aspects Impacts in terms of strategy formulation for action Support decision making Improve policy implementation Strengthen strategy formulation:
better informed about risks Using foresight to evaluate and future-proof strategies and priority actions Better evidence-based policies Making the case for increased investments in R&d Note:*
*See the website of the EFMN<http://www. foresight-network. eu, >last accessed 3 february 2010 Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science
and Public policy February 2010 34 been a serious attempt to understand its effects in aggregate.
In particular, foresight has not been evaluated as an instrument of science and innovation policy. Thus the real effect of foresight on priorities may be difficult to determine.
This concept of direct impact was identified also by Van der meulen et al. 2003): ) In comparison to futures studies and forecastinng the literature on foresight has paid little attenntio to its actual strategic value.
Carlson (2004) also echoed these sentiments. Foresight success: what factors are associated with foresight success? We did not find much literature that looked at foresiigh success factors.
Buetschi and Nentwich (2000) identified several context or foundational success factors for influencing the political role of participatoor technology assessment (see Table 3). These studies tell us that FTA EXERCISES should not be viewed independently of their contexts
and they remiin us that FTA is also a sociopolitical activity and should be understood as such.
Rollwagen et al. 2006) looked at FTA from the corporate perspective and identified several criteria (content
and process) for improving the effectiveness of foresight studies (see Table 4). Survey process From the preceding discussion,
the objective of this paper and the study in general is to better understand exactly what foresight success is and the factors that lead to this success. Essentially,
it involves asking a series of strategic questions to national foresight expeert identified through global foresight networks,
Conceptually, this study seeks to find the most successsfu foresight programs and study them. The initial study
designed and delivered in the period 2005 2006 was a survey of foresight leaders around the world identified from international meetinngs followed by an expert analysis that delved more deeply into best practices.
and Table 2. Foresight impact dimensions Dimension Impact issue Raising knowledge Forming attitudes and opinions Initiating action Scientific and technological aspects Scientific assessment:
and practical implementation Involvement of political actors in the process Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 35 asked what they thought were the best contemporary foresight organizations,
The objective of this phase was to identify the organizations that the experts in foresight felt were the most successful.
Which five countries do you believe have advanced the most, productive or successful foresight programs? Of the countries you have identified,
and implementation of a successful Foresight progrram Are there pitfalls to be avoided? What are the critical differences in national foresiigh program models?
What, in your opinion, are some of the most successsfu assessments of recent foresight exercises? What tools/metrics/parameters work best to measure impacts?
economic or scientific impacts that you believe can be attributte to a national foresight program? Please review our proposed list of countries/individuals chosen for our direct survey.
Please feel free to comment on any aspect of Canadda'foresight program or activity. Your advice and insights would be welcomed In the second phase,
we examined the institutions viewed as having the best foresight practices and we conducted detailed phone
The interviews were designed also to elicit the institution's perception as to what constitutes foresight success. Foresight organizations
and national foresight programs from the following countries responded to our first study: Forfas in Ireland;
APEC Center for Technology foresight in Thailand; Finnsight 2015 (encompassing a mix of Nokia plus three government agencies (VTT, TEKES and SITRA) and Helsinki University of Technologgy in Finland UK Foresight, third phase 2004 2008;
and Denmark National Technology Board and Spain Regional foresight (also identified as countries that had used foresight in more specific applicatiion related to national policy development.
Phase 2 of the first study focused the interviews on deriving a deeper understanding of the models
What is the national foresight mandate? Who are the key clients of national foresight? What is the relationship of foresight to governmeen policy and economic decision-making structures?
What is the foresight funding model? What levels of resources has received foresight? How are allocated foresight resources?
What is the foresight project selection process? How has evolved the foresight program over time? Do you have a foresight wish list?
In the final phase, senior representative (s) from the nine foresight institutions identified during the first study were contacted by email and/or through direec telephone conversations to request additional information,
to confirm the results from the first study and to seek additional information and claritty This study involved various qualitative and quantitative research methods including:
a detailed literature review; a short email questionnaire; interviiew with foresight practitioners, managers responnsibl for national foresight efforts in various countries, and;
reviews of foresight project level summaries and overviews from the EFMN (part of the European foresight Knowledge sharing Platfoor which monitors
and maps foresight activities all over the world) were undertaken (called Dynaam and consisting of foresight project briefs and other documents).
Our second study looked at the following countries: Table 4. Criteria for improving the impact of foresight studies Foresight content criteria Plausibility;
convenience and usability of results; inspiration and appropriate temporal perspective Foresight process criteria Structured way of production and deliverance of foresight thinking;
high levels of interaction; inclusion in organizational renewal procedures; ideational entrepreneurship; persistence and innovation, especially in communications;
synchronization with the business agenda of the organization Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 36 Ireland, Japan, Finland and the UK;
Denmark (Spain was exchanged in favour of Australia to have more global diversity and three more European countries were added);
and Australia, Netherlands, Germany and France. The second study aimed to extend the analysis by asking the following questions:
What motivated your government's foresight effoort in the first place?(What were the specific needs? What were the challenges?
Were you copying other national efforts? To whom did your country look to when starting its national foresight efforts?
did need you to build a business case for foresiigh in your government? How was done that?
What were the direct outcomes from your national foresight initiative?(novel policy initiative (s), greater public foresight awareness, increased networkking new programs, direct impact on the innovaatio infrastructure etc.
Is there an annual budget for a national foresight program or foresight support in your country? What amount?
How many full-time equivalent staff per year work in the national foresight program?(2007) Is financial support for foresight in your country stable,
growing or decreasing in 2007 2008? Is there a central foresight web page? are included web links? Is there a foresight support agency (or departmeent in your government?
are centralized the foresight activities or decentrallized (e g. within a specific ministry or done individually in each agency with no central suppoor or supported by some central foresight body or outside research institute or both) In your opinion, has done your country anything unique that is making foresight work in your conteex
or culture? What do you think are the critical success factors? What has done your country in various foresight initiatives (national, supranational,
regional or sector) to promote public participation? So much data was collected during these studies than it could not all be reported in one paper,
so more papers will follow. For the purposes of this paper, however, we will only report on data related to the two primary research questions:
firstly, what is defined as program success, and secondly, how is attained success. Results The definition of success Overall the studies provide a rich array of insights and observations-data on the most dynamic public foresight programs in the world.
As Table 5 indicaate there can be competing primary and subobjecctives This is consistent with past studies.
This wide variety of goals makes the process of definnin narrow goals and success measures quite complicated.
Despite the divergence of objectives, a common theme emerged in the interviews. All interviewees mentioned the importance of the results of foresight being used to inform
or guide policy decisions. So we concluded that achieving program impact via policy appears to be the most important macroobjeectiv for foresight:
this makes sense not just because of the alignment of interests but also becaaus remaining viable in the long term,
in this era of public funding accountability, seems to be critical in itself as an indication of success. As many subjects stated,
survival is difficult without a visible and positive impact on policy. This suggesste two dominant criteria for success:
Table 5. Foresight objectives Main objective Sub-objectives Increase societal and economic well-being Economic growth and national competitiveness Societal well being, covering social, environmental, cultural
and implementation of technology policy Understand the best methods and use of foresight Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 37 Results:
critical success factors What is interesting to note from all the studies was that the foresight delivery
and so best methods practice is spreading rapidly within the foresight community. Thus, while the methodology of foresight study and focus is also important,
it is insufficient as an indicator of success. Taken together, the studies identified many similariities For example:
The target audience for all national foresight exercises appeared to be broad in scope, with single exercises typically having multiple audiences.
Financial support for national foresight programs has been increasing or stable in all the countries that replied to the survey,
where the foresight program was being supported, was terminated in 2008. Sponsors: Governments (both national and subnatiional and government agencies were the main sponsors of foresight exercises accounting for 95%of the sample.
Program spending. From the limited sample size, it is noticeable that Canada spends far less on national foresight efforts
but comes out on par on spending in sector or industry foresight efforts; Methods used: Four methods were particularly popular:
literature reviews, scenarios, brainstorminng and expert panels. The most striking result is the popularity of the four methods:
and sub-national foresight exercises, followed by scenarios, analysis of trends and drivers and research priorities. There were also interesting differences observed.
In Japan, S&t foresight activities feature a recurriin national iterative Delphi technology poll, and also include a quarterly international journal.
The APEC Center for Technology foresight is located a Bangkok applied research and foresight center established and supported by APEC, through active co-operation of Thailand and other APEC member economies,
with Canada playing a prominent role as a strategic partner and project advisor. This center is hosted by Thailand's National science & Technology development Agency (NSTDA.
but the key organizattiona factor is that there is a strong historical commitment to technology foresight and a central innovation and futures committee of the parliameen chaired by the prime minister.
what is required for foresight success Focus (es) on a clearly identified client: In all cases these successful functions were housed within a ministry responsible for innovation.
this was identified as the primary client for the foresight results. Clear link between foresight and today's policy agenda:
Using the most advanced foresight methodds matched to the specific task, ensures an effecctiv link to current government actions.
A key requirement is to develop foresight capacity amongst senior decision-makers so that they can integrate the important tools of technology foresiigh into advice to government.
The UK seems to have developed this capacity the most where the science advisor has repeatedly been able to engaag key ministries as joint sponsors and receptoor for the results.
what they were doiin (foresight exercises) and actual policy. Direct links to senior policy-makers: To have a better understanding of policy needs,
the foresiigh capacity and stakeholder organizations need Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 38 to be linked with
but the clear message was that a successful foresight program had to connect in some meaningful manner to private sector actors.
Thus, they brought intelligeenc and foresight methodologies to the table. APEC Center for Technology foresight in Thailaan has had its strategy planning
and scenario approaches used by their host department to help the government itself establish its longer term strategies.
Excelleen foresight is both time sensitive and attractive to those motivated to detect change ahead of its appearance,
Furthermore, many indicated that it was necessary to retain these involveement beyond the period of the actual projeect or initial foresight program,
because they were an important part of validating the advantage of foresight to new clients and new topic areas.
A clear need at the start is a national local academic receptor capability for foresight skills and training.
and they proviid a steady source of new ideas, intelligence and international foresight connections. Applying the critical success factors to Canada's foresight program Our studies have identified eight critical success factoors The strength of any model is its ability to assist
and predict. In this section, all eight criteria are appllie to the Canadian foresight program. At the outsse it should be noted that the methodologies that are being used during the program have been evaluated in the past
and have been found to be consistent with those associated with successful foresight programs. Thus this part of the paper applies only the eight critical success factors that are additional to the methodology factor.
At an operational level, the nascent Canadian foresiigh initiative (2002 2008) was able to produce some excellent projects with strong insights,
Table 6 summarizes how we applied the critical success factoor to Canada's foresight program. As present (early 2010) there are some encouraging signs of a revival of interest by the Canadian government in a modest S&t foresight initiative so,
the authors'assessment may have underestimated the longer term impacts of the activity of the nascent Office of the National science Advisor (ONSA),
nevertheless some appreciation for the contributions that foresight can make to general S&t preparedness. Based on the studies that were done,
Canada's foresight progrram based in the National science Advisor's (NSA) Office was disbanded in March 2008
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 39 Compared to most of the other nations represennte in our study,
Canada was unable to develop a sustainable, integrated foresight program. While the reason (s) for the failure of the program (despite the success of the outputs) continue (s) to be debated in policy circles in Canada,
as early as in 2005 2006, it enabled the authhor to predict the demise of the Canadian foresight effort.
and a list of considerations that are relevant for designers of foresight systems, structures and processses The key requirement seems to be creating the close linkages with policy-makers that in turn appear to be mainly dependent upon their sensitivity to futuur challenges,
or if the results of the foresight assessment were integrrate into policy making in real time. If this Table 6:
Key success factors applied to Canadian foresight Key success factor Application analysis Significant and clear client:
limited direct evidence Since 2004, with two successive minority governments, the policy agenda has been clearly dominated by short-term priorities (sometimes only five years) thus rendering foresight,
being clearly more receptive and supportive of foresight initiatives. The result has been projects which align with some of the areas where policy will be required,(e g. health technology, agricultural innovation,
evident but not strong enough to counter inside government weaknesses The various foresight initiatives all involved private sector leaders
evident but not distinctly recognized The foresight program was able to test at least five novel approaches
and train over 300 senior government staff and managers in foresight methods so that at least a portion of the policy advisory system has had some exposure/familiarity to these methods Communications strategy:
Neither case was suited well to the collaborative nature of the foresight process, and the change in government led to a more tightly controlled system for strategic messaging and press relations Stakeholder integration:
and professional levels of organizations and industrial domains affected by the foresight were able to be involved in the process,
somewhat, but little capacity existed in Canada for academic foresight in 2005 2008 Canada has limited only a number of foresight focused academics,
however, most professors who could be aligned with foresight in Canada had some connection to ONSA or to the Foresight Directorate,
and the program as initially formulated did not survive Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science
Further studies should validate these factors by applying them to different foresight organizations, both those that succeeded and those that failed.
In addition, this study focused on a small set of foresight practitioneer (30) and organizations (9
future foresight assesssment may wish to expand the sample base in an attempt to both validate the critical success factors
what we hope will be a stream of other research that helps identify factors leading to foresight success. Finally,
For example, while we learned that a clear communicatiio strategy was felt to contribute to foresight succeess exactly how should these strategies be designed?
The foresight literature is rich on the issue of different methodologiie and project selection but not on the seven factoor identified in this study.
what should be the key measure of foresight progrra success. Unfortunately, as was described by Barré
The authors endorse the need for further assessments of foresight impact, survival and the dynamics of managing regime transitions that remain a continuing challenge to foresight advocates
and practitioners Notes 1. See website, available at<www. forfas. ie, >last accessed 3 february 2010.2.
Interpreting foresight procees impacts: steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'.
'Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Futuureoriented Technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Using technology foresight to create business value. Research Technology management, 47 (5), 51 61. European foresight monitoring Network Mapping Reports 2005 2007.
Available at<http://www. foresight-network. eu>,last accessse 3 february 2010. Georghiou, Luke and Michael Keenan 2004.
Towards a typology for evaluating foresight exercises. Paper presented at EU US Seminar: New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assesssmen Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain.
Ladikas, Miltos and Michael Decker 2004. Assessing the impact of future-oriented technology assessment. Paper presented at EU US Seminar:
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Rollwagen, Ingo, Jan Hofmann and Stefan Schneider 2006.
Criterri for improving the business impact of foresight at Deutsche bank: lessons learnt in mapping trends. Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Van der meulen, Barend, Jan de Wilt and Hans Rutten 2003. Develoopin futures for agriculture in The netherlands:
a systematti exploration of the strategic value of foresight. Journal of Forecasting, 22 (2/3), 219 213
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