1 The FTA acronym refers to strategic foresight, forecasting and technology assessment. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.03.001 The six articles included in this Special issue were presented in 2006.
The first paper from Eriksson and Weber, presents the methodological concept of Adaptive foresight. This concept was developed by using elements from adaptive strategic planning
in order to address shortcomings of more Conventional foresight and to ensure a better link between Foresight and its impact on decision-making processes.
The paper discusses Adaptive foresight and underlines that Foresight needs to go beyond the level of a collective process
and get to the level of individual actors'strategies. The contribution provides a process outline and examples of Adaptive foresight, including a critical assessment of its potentials
and methodological challenges to be addressed. The second paper by Brummer et al. addresses the challenges of organising future-oriented consultation processes that are promoted at the international level and, in the precise case by the European commission,
as contribution towards the establishment of common research policy (i e. the so-called European research area (ERA). 3 This contribution refers to a very specific project
The paper describes the embedded foresight process implemented to achieve a shared vision-building among different stakeholders, and the shaping of new research and technology development networks in European-wide innovation policy coordination.
In the paper‘Regulatory foresight: methodologies and selected applications,'Blind illustrates three methodologies for performing Regulatory foresight.
Regulatory foresight addresses approaches allowing future fields of regulatory actions to be identified, which could also contribute to new markets.
The view of the author is that Regulatory foresight is an instrument for regulatory bodies to identify, in advance, future challenges for their regulatory regimes,
thus allowing them to possibly reshape or develop new frameworks. These would require long-lasting decision processes within the public, the political decision structures,
The concept is based on the tradition of regulatory impact assessments and foresight exercises. Regulatory foresight is conceived as strategic activity undertaken by governments and policy-makers responsible for regulatory regimes to shape
pro-actively, innovation-promoting regulatory framework conditions, which are crucial for the competitiveness of national or regional innovation systems. 3 For further information:
The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises to assess the degree to which they promote the development of‘participatory knowledge societies.'
In parallel, a‘logicmodel'approach is used also to provide checklists of the foresight inputs and activities likely to lead to the attainment of both lower and higher level system goals,
Previously, Fabiana was leading for more than 4 years the Foresight activities implemented by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (DG JRC-IPTS) located in Seville (Spain.
She was in charge of different projects aiming at reinforcing the position of the JRC-IPTS as a centre for Foresight at European and international level.
Amongst the projects she was leading there were targeted activities supporting mutual learning on Foresight among practitioners
and users across European countries and advancing the application of Foresight as an instrument for policy-making formulation.
She holds a Phd from PREST, University of Manchester united Kingdom) on Prospective and Foresight methodologies and she has a degree on Political sciences from the University of Milan (Italy.
Towards Innovation Foresight: Two empirical case studies on future TV experiences for/by users Katrien De Moor a b, 1,,
Innovation Foresight User involvement User practices Future TV experiences Interaction A b s T R A c T This paper discusses the need for a shift towards more Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes
and introduces the concept of‘‘Innovation Foresight''(IF) in this respect. IF represents an approach for bringing the future into holistic innovation processes, in
continuous interaction with current/anticipated users and a better integration of methods and approaches from different fields, including Foresight, user/market research and human-centred product design.
This paper proposes a shift towards more Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes and discusses the concept of‘‘Innovation Foresight''(IF) 11 in this respect.
It is argued that IF could serve as an interactive, participatory and forwardloookin process towards the‘social shaping of technology'.
Through a better introduction of the future based on Foresight theory and practice and through an integration of methods and approaches from other fields, including user/market research
in the next section, the Innovation Foresight concept is introduced and contextualised. Thereupon, the methodological setup and results from two empirical studies in which current and future users were involved closely in the exploration,
Finally, Section 4 discusses a number of experiences and conclusions from the empirical studies in the light of the proposed shift towards more Innovation Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes. 2. Towards Innovation Foresight (IF?
CTA, for example, with its aim of broadening design and development processes and early interaction between the relevant technology and societal actors, can be considered an initial attempt at Innovation Foresight.
Moreover, other Foresight methods such as horizon scanning, scenarios, customer and technology trend analysis, and roadmapping are used commonly for the identification of technological opportunities and exploration of possible future markets in this respect.
An integrated approach towards Innovation Foresight is thus called for. The notion of Innovation Foresight is based on the consideration of different dynamics.
These include the recognition of challenges facing innovation including the increasing complexity and uncertainty which result in failing innovations;
and be affected by the Foresight process, and (iii) investigation into the formal and informal networks and procedures,
the concept of Innovation Foresight (IF) 11 has been introduced as an interactive, participatory and forward-looking way to engage in the‘social shaping of technology'.
Different from more policy oriented institutional Foresight exercises, IF is focused more on New Product development processes, where stakeholders,
'and is situated at the intersection of Foresight, user/market research and humancenntre product design. It seeks to understand the complex interactions between products, services, users and other stakeholders in multiple, realistic contexts, building on Foresight theory and practice, traditional user research,
and creative, generative methods. We now zoom in on two empirical studies in which current users have been involved closely in the exploration, imagination and creation of (future) TV experiences.
this paper has proposed a shift towards Innovation Foresight. IF aims to go beyond the dominant‘here and now'focus in traditional user research
It represents an approach for bringing the future into inclusive innovation processes in a more systematic and comprehensive way, based on Foresight theory and practice and through integrating methods and tools from Foresight, traditional user/market research and human-centred
Secondly, it would be relevant to further investigate the link between Innovation Foresight and the Living Lab concept which was mentioned already in 11.
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2010) 279 291.4 P. Warnke, G. Heimeriks, Technology foresight as innovation policy instrument:
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer-verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 71 87.5 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy, International Journal of Foresight
899.10 D. Loveridge, P. Street, Inclusive foresight, Foresight 7 (2005) 31 47.11 K. De Moor, O. Saritas, Innovation Foresight for living labs, in:
Proceedings of Yeditepe International research Conference on Foresight (Yircof 2009), Istanbul, Turkey, 2009.12 O. Saritas, Innovation Foresight and Foresightful Innovation in Europe and beyond, in:
which must then be embedded in the proposed system to enable an effective connection between strategy and implementation across the value chain. 4. Roles of fta FTA and its elements of strategic foresight,
when stating that foresight can be seen as a governance process, whereas 43 claim that this happens through shared
foresight can help actors to anticipate and manage emerging challenges. It does so by providing spaces where actors can come together to shape equally likely paths into the future through a collective articulation of visions
(thus supporting phases 3 and 4). Enabling spaces like this through foresight embedded within the proposed system to formalise this collective process of mutual learning and experimentation would enable increased communication across the value chain.
C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 56 Foresight also supports the firm's and its stakeholders'ability to develop a joint vision
and includes FTA elements into this structure to empower the organisation to appropriately apply foresight in business 39 using a PMS.
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning
community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises, in: Paper Prepared for the STRATA ETAN Expert Group action on Mobilising the Regional foresight Potential for an Enlarged European union, 2002.44 C. Shelton, Quantum leaps, Butterworth-Heinemann, Boston, Massachusetts, 1997.45 C. Cagnin,
An information Architecture to Enable Business Sustainability,(Phd thesis), University of Manchester, Manchester, UK, 2005.46 M. Boden, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Konnola, Facing the Future:
http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf (accessed 10.11). 47 O. Saritas, Systems thinking for Foresight,(Phd thesis), Manchester Institute of Innovation research, 2006.48 E
50 C. Bezold, C. Bettles, C. Juech, E. Michelson, J. Peck, K. Wilkins, Foresight for Smart Globalization:
Accelerating and Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities, Institute for Alternative futures, Alexandria, VA, 2009.51 C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la, Global foresight:
combining external and internal scenarios to create strategic foresight, Management Decision 43 (2005) 360 381.69 M. J. Epstein,
Toward networked foresight? Exploring the use of futures research in innovation networks Patrick van der Duin a b, 1,,
and how corporate foresight affects companies'innovative capabilities 5. In 2003, Chesbrough coined the term‘Open innovation'to describe the paradigm‘‘that firms can
Innovation networks Futures research Foresight Networked foresight Open innovation A b s T R A c T Along with the rise of the now popular‘open'paradigm in innovation management,
Foresight could potentially greatly benefit from resources that become available when the knowledge base increases through networks.
and foresight are related to what extent networked foresight activities exist and how they are practiced. For the former the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM) is utilized as analytical framework
and applied to three cases. The foresight activities are analyzed in terms of type scope and role. The cases are a collaboration between government agencies and a research organization and two inter-organizational networks of different size.‘
‘Networked foresight'is clearly observable in all three cases. Indeed, a networked approach to foresight seems to strengthen the various roles of foresight.
However, the rooting and openness of foresight activities in the three networks varies significantly. The advantages that‘networked foresight'entails could be exploited to a much higher degree for the networks themselves, e g.,
, the broad resource base and the large pool of people with diverse backgrounds that are available.
Furthermore, effective instruments for the reinteggratio of knowledge into the networks'partner organizations are needed. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
All rights reserved.**Corresponding author at: Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX, The netherlands. Tel.:+
2) Do activities that could be named‘networked foresight'exist?(3) How are these activities currently conducted?
and by analyzing foresight activities therein in terms of type, scope, and their respective roles. In the next section the concept of networked foresight is approached in two ways:
first, by investigating the relationship and analogies of innovation management and futures research; second, by explicating the link of futures research to innovation networks.
and the categorization of foresight is explained. This is followed by the description of the three cases according to the CIM concepts.
Special emphasis therein is placed on foresight activities. The subsequent case-specific discussions are followed by a cross-case evaluation.
The article finishes with concluding remarks. 2. Toward networked foresight 2. 1. Analogies in the development of innovation management and futures research Liyanage 13, Niosi 14 and Ortt and van der Duin 15
networked foresight. 2. 2. Linking futures research to innovation networks 2. 2. 1. Trends driving corporate innovation toward open innovation processes Innovation, i e.,
fast technological change and innovation speed to corporate foresight through the necessity of companies to renew their strategic resources as a result of these factors.
The link is deepened through various studies that discuss foresight methods as means to embrace the open innovation paradigm.
Heger and Rohrbeck 39 describe the collaborative application of a set of foresight methods for exploration of new business fields,
one of the previously listed three roles that corporate foresight should play within a company.
Rohrbeck, Ho lzle and Gemu nden discuss the role of futures research for corporate innovativeness in the form of foresight workshops 8. These workshops are identified as one instrument of Deutsche telekom for embracing the open innovation paradigm
, the results of the foresight project challenged existing development projects and led to strategic changes within the company.
Thus, the project filled the third key role of foresight as described above while clearly embracing the open approach by using outside sources within the corporate innovation process.
In this section we have shown two paths that led us to believe that networked foresight is the next generation of futures research:
First, the close connection between innovation management and futures research and analogies in their past developments hint at networked foresight as a logical next generation of futures research.
Second, past studies on foresight, collaboration in innovation and open innovation reveal the link between foresight and collaborative innovation,
also suggesting that networked foresight will indeed become increasingly important. However, systematic research about futures research in innovation networks as one form to embrace open innovation is lacking.
4 Innovation in systems or networks Networked foresight P. van der Duin et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 64 investigated in terms of type, scope and foresight role.
The goal is to identify and characterize‘networked foresight'as the basis for further research. 3. Methodology 3. 1. Study design For analyzing the link between futures research
and innovation networks and assessing the use of networked foresight activities this study uses a multi-case design.
This design makes it possible to capture the full richness of the focal phenomenon while taking into account the softer aspects that help identify new meanings, different interpretations,
in our case‘networked foresight'.'The cases in this article allow the focal phenomenon to be described
The identified foresight practices are categorized according to their character, in this article scope, type and the impact of its results.
the link of future orientation, futures research and the network is analyzed by connecting the CIM analysis with the character of the foresight activities. 3. 2. Analytical framework 3. 2. 1. The Cyclic Innovation Model The main
the conclusion would be networked that systematic foresight is practiced not. Additionally, the application of the CIM can reveal various system failures that can limit the effectiveness of the use of futures research.
or formalized networked foresight concepts or processes. Also, that it might be that components of the CIM are linked not to each other in a cyclical way.
Thus, the cases will show different levels of networked foresight. In one case the different concepts might be present but not explicitly formalized,
In this article the network orientation of foresight is described and analyzed, but not formalized. The CIM provides a common basis for the analysis of the three cases
and reveals the stages of development of networked foresight in the different cases. In the case evaluations
They merely reflect the state of each case concerning the planned and actual network orientation concerning futures research activities. 3. 2. 3. Categorizing the networked foresight activities The implementation of the identified networked foresight activities is structured according to the three roles of foresight
and opponent (Table 2). When foresight is implemented to contribute through these three roles 5, expect the ability of the firm to innovate
We reuse these three roles to categorize the individual networked foresight activities in the three cases below.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 66 field and carries out various foresight activities organized in separate programs and projects.
the network manager had Table 2 The three roles of foresight as described by Rohrbeck
and Gemu nden 5. Foresight role Impact Initiator role Identify new needs Identify emerging technologies Identify competitors'concepts early Strategist role Assess
while also making sure that the internal components of the network were aligned. 4. 1. 5. Networked foresight activities Foresight activities inside Rijkswaterstaat
Specifically, the partners are supported at several stages of the Table 3 Networked foresight activities in Rijkswaterstaat.
The integration of new partners with additional competences, ideas and insights broaden the innovation potential of the network. 4. 2. 5. Networked foresight activities Futures research activities are conducted in particular within the innovation management unit of EICT.
and EICT as an innovation network is addressed not within the foresight activities of the innovation management unit.
In Table 4 the identified foresight activities within EICT are listed, briefly described and their character stated. 4. 3. Case 3:
The EIT governing board developed an overarching Strategic Table 4 Networked foresight activities at the EICT Gmbh.
However, foresight activities aimed at the transition path have already been established: the aforementioned innovation radar helps ensure that the EIT ICT Labs
and an annual selection process (quality assurance) add to the aforementioned foresight instruments innovation radar and best-practice benchmarking.
Networked foresight activities Within the EIT ICT Labs various foresight activities can be observed. The partners receive financial grants for their participation
In Table 5 the foresight activities are summarized briefly and their type is stated. 5. Evaluation of the cases In this section,
Table 5 Networked foresight activities in the EIT ICT Labs. No. Activity Short description Type 3. 1 Action lines Bundle R&d activities in preselected thematic fields,
and networked approach to foresight to identify and explore innovations for Dutch water management. While the process model was adopted to integrate multiple parties as well,
and network orientation. 5. 1. 1. Networked foresight activities Foresight activities were limited to workshops, moderated discussions and other meetings either as stand-alone events or as series of events (activity 1. 4). Predominantly,
the foresight activities were used to develop strategic guidance for the future in water management, to identify new business opportunities
The opponent role was addressed ancillary within business case analyses (Fig. 2). Two factors were identified to significantly influence the results of the foresight activities.
As a result, most networked foresight activities within WINN were rather ad hoc, took place just once,
and Deltares (Table 6). Based on the CIM evaluation and the analyzed foresight activities the following conclusions can be drawn for Rijkswaterstaat:
Within WINN foresight activities were primarily singular activities, either with the contract partners Rijkswaterstaat and Deltares or with selected participants.
Beneficiaries of foresight were primarily the innovation activities originating from WINN and partly WINN itself. The latter in terms of identification of relevant developments and strategic guidance.
The partner network could be used to a higher degree within mid-to long-term foresight instruments and recurring activities.
including networked foresight. Fig. 3 visualizes EICT in regard to its openness and future orientation based on the CIM. 5. 2. 1. Networked foresight activities The partners use EICT's competences in foresight mainly on a project basis and for specific thematic topics;
therein pooling the knowledge and information of several partners. Thus, it is expected that the outcome of foresight is enhanced due to the partner network of EICT.
The project-based approach reduces the risk of failure and keeps investment levels low. However, the partners do not use the full potential of the network.
Also, a stand-alone and self-sustaining foresight process run by EICT could draw on the broad data basis available through the involvement of all partners.
In Table 7 the foresight activities provided by EICT are listed, their scope is shown and matched to the three roles of foresight.
Based on the CIM evaluation and the analyzed foresight activities the following conclusions can be drawn for EICT:
1. EICT applies foresight instruments mostly on a project basis for its network partners. Within the projects EICT's network is leveraged for information collection
and knowledge exchange. 2. Beneficiaries of networked foresight activities are the network partners within the predefined project settings. 3. For developing the process model,
adjusting the image of the future and the vision and strategy of EICT quarterly board meetings,
EICT's own foresight competences could complement these meetings. 4. The existing foresight activities could be utilized to capture external developments adequately to guide EICT prepare it for the future. 5. Foresight would benefit from additional network partners that add to the existing knowledge base.
Table 6 The scope of the foresight activities in Rijkswaterstaat and their matching to the roles of foresight according to Rohrbeck & Gemu nden 5. No.
and openness. 5. 3. 1. Networked foresight activities In the EIT ICT Labs 10 foresight activities with varying roles
and to a lesser degree competitors'concepts at an early stage (initiator role of foresight). Several instruments consolidate opinions
and to scan for disruptions (opponent role of foresight). In Table 8 the foresight activities are matched to the three roles defined by Rohrbeck and Gemu nden 5. Additionally,
the scope (contributors and beneficiaries) is shown. Based on the CIM evaluation and the futures research activity analysis the following conclusions can be drawn for the EIT ICT Labs:
1. Within the EIT ICT Labs foresight that utilizes the network on various levels is practiced. 2. Beneficiaries of these activities are the network partners and the network itself.
Table 7 The scope of the foresight activities in the EICT and their matching to the roles of foresight according to Rohrbeck & Gemu nden 5. No.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 74 3. Some networked foresight activities, e g.,, the innovation radar, are used to provide the basis for the process model of the network especially
and business results. 5. The existence of a management team within the network facilitates the use of results from networked foresight to define
and guide the future of the network. 5. 4. Cross-case evaluation 5. 4. 1. Toward networked foresight within the three cases In Fig. 5 the classification of the foresight activities in terms scope
and foresight role are shown on a grid for each case. Additionally, the shape of the boxes represents the type of activity in the sense of long-term program,
nonrecurring foresight activities are conducted. These are managed by RWS with support by Deltares and partly with additional external participants.
The emphasis of WINN activities is on the strategist role of foresight: first, to assess
Thus, WINN can be described as a bundle of conventional foresight activities to consolidate knowledge, to identify new ideas
In the sense of this article the WINN activities can be characterized as foresight supported by a loosely linked network.
EICT predominantly creates a platform for networked foresight‘on demand 'and on a project basis. When one of the network partners requests futures research for a selected topic EICT creates a network tailored for that topic
The foresight activities are mostly mid-to short-term activities within Table 8 The scope of the foresight activities in the EIT ICT Labs
and their matching to the roles of foresight according to Rohrbeck & Gemu nden 5. No.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 75 the network of constant network partners or on a contractual basis. The strategic role of foresight for the corporate strategy of the partners is the focus of attention.
The activities in this case can be described as project-based networked foresight. The EIT ICT Labs are a network as such.
Networked foresight is driven endogenously in selected fields with dedicated funds. Foresight activities are longer-term activities than in the other two cases.
They are either completely open to outsiders or limited to the network partners. On first sight it appears that strategic information is the focus of the activities as well.
Thus, although the activities belong to the strategist role of foresight, they initiate, consolidate and evaluate new ideas, technologies, etc. as well.
Futures research in the EIT ICT Labs can be characterized as thematically driven networked foresight conducted by equal partners. 5. 4. 2. Networked foresight linked to open innovation
first, foresight can and should be used to develop a suitable process model toward an envisioned future of an innovation network.
The networks can benefit from networked foresight especially due to its varying perspectives, diverse backgrounds of the involved people and broad information base.
Second, foresight and especially networked foresight can also be used to guide the transition path toward the envisioned future.
When combining the differences in networked foresight with further research on collaboration in innovation at least two known‘process archetypes of open innovation'are observable in the cases:
1. In all three cases the foresight activities are used as information sources for initializing new activities internally within the network partner organizations (outside-in.
2. In all three cases the network partners contribute information to the foresight activities independently from further use therein (inside-out.
Additionally, foresight activities in the WINN and EIT ICT Labs cases are used to provide information for guiding,
and analyzing foresight activities therein in terms of type, scope and role of each activity. The scope comprises contributors
The role refers to three known roles that foresight plays: the initiator, strategist and opponent role.
Fig. 5. Foresight activities from the cases matched to foresight roles, scope and type of activity.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 76 In the literature review two paths that indicate networked foresight as the next generation of futures research were identified:
first, the close connection and analogies of innovation management and futures research hint at networked foresight as the logical next generation of futures research;
second, the close connection between foresight, collaborative innovation and open innovation suggests that networked foresight is already being practiced,
EICT and the EIT ICT Labs implicate that networked foresight is indeed in use. The application of the Cyclic Innovation Model shows that the envisioned and practiced openness of the three networks differs substantially.
Furthermore, the use of foresight within the networks could be increased (1) to address the future of the networks themselves
The smaller networks of RWS and EICT concentrate on foresight with a focus on strategic implications, ideation or initiation of new business activities thus the strategist and initiator roles of foresight. 9 In contrast,
the opposition role of foresight is strengthened in the large network of the EIT ICT Labs. This appears to be explicable with the inevitably added new perspectives and consolidation of unconnected information through the network.
Long-term foresight activities are conducted predominantly within the large network of the EIT ICT Labs. The same is true for foresight activities that are open to new participants.
the analysis implicates that networked foresight activities are more likely to be activities with a certain degree of continuity, i e.,
In contrast, the role of foresight is limited not. On the contrary, foresight that serves all three roles is facilitated
when conducted in the networks. It should be noted that this article is based on data from three cases.
Although these give important impulses for research addressing foresight and implicate networked foresight as a new generation of foresight,
empirical and quantitative analyses are needed in order to ensure reliability and generalizability of any conclusions. References 1 R. Cooper
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