foresight

ART88.pdf

Evaluating local and national public foresight studies from a user perspective Nicole Rijkens-Klomp a b,,*Patrick Van der Duin c, d a International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands b Pantopicon

Policy-makers who focus on long-term policy issues can use foresight methods during strategic policy-making processes to arrive at a better understanding of the future and its uncertainties

structured and applied in different ways by using various foresight methods (see, among other things, 1). In this article,

we focus on the use of foresight methods, with special attention to scenario analysis, which involves the exploration of alternative images of the future,

Foresight Users Policy Scenarios Dutch government Local National A b s T R A c T In this paper, we discuss the opinions

and experiences of local and national Dutch policymakker in applying foresight methods within the context of strategic policy processes.

Motives behind the selection of foresight methods, the timing involved in using insights from foresight studies in strategic policy-making processes, the added value of foresight methods,

In most evaluative studies on foresight, the added value is addressed from a‘supply-driven'point of view, by

which we mean from the point of view of experts on the production or methodology of foresight studies.

, that of policy-makers who have applied the results of foresight methods in policy-making processes. The insights presented in this paper are based on recent policy document analyses

What, according to policy-makers, is added the value of using foresight methods in strategic policy processes? Which levers and barriers do they perceive

when applying foresight methods in strategic policy processes? What are the similarities and differences in the application of foresight methods to strategic policy processes between the local and national level?

These research questions imply a clear focus on policy-making in the public domain (see, for example, 15) and on the perceptions of policy-makers,

because they may be involved in the development phase of scenarios as well as the usage phase of a foresight study. 2. 2. Methods

The case of Trendbureau of Overijssel includes different foresight exercises for strategic policy processes of city councils and the provincial organisation itself, focusing on different policy themes.

and carries out foresight studies for local policy organisations and organises debates and workshops to increase awareness about possible future changes.

We compared the findings of the case studies in the local public domain with two studies on the use of foresight at a national level (see 23,24),

The two studies that examined the national level mainly involved semi-structured interviews with civil servants involved in strategic matters and with the users and commissioners of foresight studies.

The first study conducted by the authors examined how Dutch departments use foresight to develop policy and strategy 23(‘policy foresight'.

1) an analysis of what foresight means to the interviewees and (2) an analysis of the way policy and strategy processes take place.

However, since the aim was to explore how foresight and strategy are related in policy processes at a national level,

In addition, a survey was conducted among civil servants involved with foresight policy and strategy. The response rate was over 40%(120 surveys completed) with a large majority of the respondents (88%)working for Dutch Ministries (such as Justice and Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality.

The second study conducted by the authors at the national level 24 was aimed at discerning how Dutch departments use foresight to develop their own organisation(‘organizational foresight'.

'In each Department (thirteen in total), one interview was conducted to obtain a broad view of how Dutch ministries deal with foresight and organisational development.

However, he was involved not from within the national government in the development and implementation of foresight methods for policy formation.

However, the initial findings can already shed new light on the use of foresight methods and serve as a source of inspiration for new dialogues within the foresight research community. 3 Results The insights from the local

and the national case-studies are structured by the research questions. N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 20 3. 1. How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of the scenario analysis method?

when using foresight methods for the first time, it can be difficult to find out how these methods relate to other methods with which they may be more familiar (such as SWOT-analyses,

By way of contrast, the national level inquiries showed that civil servants are relatively familiar with foresight methods, especially scenario analysis,

'The‘policy foresight'analysis showed that, in addition to scenarios (with which 99%of the respondents were familiar),

This was illustrated in the‘organizational foresight'study, where only four out of nine studies were based on scenario thinking.

in the different studies of the future in the‘organizational foresight'study, a more equal balance was found between expected, possible,

Especially at the national level, we see that foresight methods are performed in a participatory way, including external perspectives.

people are more familiar and experienced with foresight for policymakkin purposes than at the local level.

Nevertheless, at both levels, there are reasons for outsourcing foresight. However, at the national level, the motive is to increase objectivity,

The national policy foresight'study showed that studies of the future can be a source of inspiration for the development of new policy ideas, for agenda setting (i e.,

The national‘organizational foresight'study indeed focused more on organisational issues such as how to cooperate extensively with other (government

When we compare these motives to the foresight functions proposed by Da Costa et al. 25,

P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 21 When the main motive for using foresight methods is not necessarily a desire to realise a concrete policy end-product (such as an agenda, vision or strategy),

The national level‘policy foresight'studies showed that foresight can play three different roles:(1) signalling new developments,

Also, in the‘organizational foresight'study, the various foresight studies of the future carried out by the government departments are designed to form initial ideas and opinions about organisational change.

What is added the value of using foresight methods in strategic policy processes according to policy-makers? To a large extent, the added value of using the foresight method as perceived by policy-makers at the local level is processrelaated Local policy-makers indicated that they saw the inter-sectoral approach as one of the main process-related benefits

of using foresight methods. By the look of things, this inter-sectoral approach is unlikely to be taken for granted within local governmental organisations.

The use of foresight studies stimulated mutual learning processes, allowing participants to learn from each other's perspectives on the future and providing them with a common foundation for future policies.

In other words the spin-off of the foresight exercise was the creation of a common understanding, which relates to the function of reconfiguring the policy system,

as mentioned by Costa et al. 25, which in turn implies that foresight exercises can lead to the reconfiguration of a policy system and increase its ability to meet major challenges.

Nevertheless, there were also content-related benefits: foresight methods stimulate the user to take future developments and changes into account in a structured way.

When these methods are used not and strategic policies have to be developed, future-related assumptions are made in an intuitive and opaque way.

Another notable result from the local level case studies is that the respondents did not perceive the potential added value of foresight studies for policy innovation (see also, the conclusion by 26.

When we compare the local level results to the two national policy foresight'studies, it becomes clear that there is a greater focus on content at the national level,

On the one hand, the long lead time of strategy processes makes the use of foresight methods necessary. On the other hand, this leads to a certain level of disappointment, due to a lack of short-term implications.

Generally speaking, it is difficult to assess the impact of a foresight exercise by making a direct connection with a specific strategic decision.

the precise added value is debated often among users of national foresight studies (i e.,, the civil servants at the different ministries.

Often, it was unclear how the insights from the foresight study were applied in the policy analyses.

The two studies of national foresight activities indicate that there is room for improvement especially when it comes to connecting national foresight studies to decision-making. 3. 5

. Which levers and barriers do policy-makers perceive in applying foresight methods to strategic policy processes? We tried to determine why foresight methods are used not to their full potential (as expressed, for example,

by 25) by exploring which levers and barriers were encountered by policy-makers involved in the in depth interviews. 3. 5. 1. Knowledge

and skills in the organisation An important barrier with respect to the decision to use foresight methods at all,

especially at the local level, is the low level of knowledge and expertise, making it difficult for policy-makers to know which types of scenario analysis methods

policy-makers who are inexperienced in the use of foresight methods may find it difficult to decide which type of scenarios to develop/use

when local organisations decided to conduct a foresight study for the first time. These skills are related to communicating the idea

results and added value of the foresight method for strategic policy-making, and facilitating the process of gaining support of policy-makers and politicians for the method and the results of the foresight process.

Consequently, although external expertise was brought in, the perception at the local level was that, in addition to external assistance, policy-makers should also be able to implement

and communicate the foresight method and insights themselves. In all case studies, external organisations specialising in foresight assisted in developing

and/or applying the future analysis, by introducing the theoretical background of the method and/or by delivering content for the foresight analysis. One of the lessons learnt with respect to external assistance was that,

ownership of the scenarios was unclear in some cases. Policy-makers indicated that they want to remain in control during the development (and use) of the foresight study.

When this buy in happens too late in the process, there is less internal support, and policy-makers and politicians will not experience the added value of the scenario analysis.

To summarise, national level policy-makers seem to be equipped better to conduct foresight studies than their counterparts at the local level. 3. 5. 2. Timing of the foresight study Both at the local and national level,

foresight studies work better when combined with policy processes rather than as a stand-alone process. Most local policy-makers indicated that the foresight process took more time than they initially expected.

This was due, in part, to the longer duration of the development phase, particularly the time needed to generate support and commitment among policy-makers (and politicians).

Consequently, there was less time to learn from the foresight study in a strategic 1 Particular issues arise in the case of quantitative forecasting models,

Initiating new foresight processes just before a new Minister or Secretary is installed is seen as a good moment,

That is to say, the results of foresight studies are of course not necessarily bounded by organisational structures. For instance, possible future economic issues can be related to social and technological issues,

which can clash with the longteer perspective of most foresight studies. Da Costa et al. 25 stated that a lot of effort and commitment is needed for policymakker to switch from dealing with short-term issues towards a more long-term and holistic approach.

when it comes to applying the results of an analysis. Expectations need to be managed at the beginning and throughout the foresight study,

and communicate a foresight study in such a way that it is recognisable for politicians and that it can also be translated into a meaningful analysis within a strategic context 29 31.

The analysis of the two national foresight studies also showed that, although the futures research processes are relatively transparent and rational in nature,

Indeed, many foresight studies were set in motion by politicians, making them the most important users of the studies.

In many foresight studies, the role of the civil servants was to carry out the foresight study and let the politicians draw the conclusions.

this also allowed politicians to ignore the foresight study, because not drawing conclusions means that there is no connection between the foresight study and the policy development process.

To summarise, at both the national and local levels, the environment in which futures studies are conducted is complex,

If this‘foresight champion',i e.,, the initiator and main developer of the foresight study, should decide to leave the organisation,

support for the project may diminish or vanish completely. The national level analysis also shows that foresight is a‘human affair,

'meaning that, despite the importance and wide range of methods, the quality is determined also by the status, credibility and expertise of the people involved.

task force or ambassador is required to make sure that the foresight study has an impact. To summarise, at both the national and local levels, a kind of‘future champion'plays an important role in the development of the foresight process and its application to strategic policy-making.

However, it would appear that these‘future champions'are easier to find at the national than at the local level. 4. Synthesis

most significantly because of differences in the level of experience with foresight methods. At the local level, there is less experience with foresight methods:

thinking in terms of alternative futures and taking longer-run uncertainties into account is a rather new area of expertise that is still not broadly incorporated into the workings and cultures of local policy organisations.

and discover how to use the insights of foresight studies in strategic policy processes. At the national level, there is more experience,

as a result of which foresight studies are incorporated to a greater extent in daily routines and have a greater impact on strategic policy processes.

In appropriate timing of the foresight study has been deemed a factor contributing to the failure to apply the insights of a foresight study.

process-oriented effects of using foresight methods were emphasised, while, at the national level, greater emphasis was placed on content-related issues.

There were also similarities with regard to the implementation of foresight studies and the use of foresight insights, for example the important success factors of leadership and confidence in the process.

The same is true for the different reasons for using foresight methods in strategic policy processes which may be explained by the fact that both organisational levels are related to each other from a governmental and political perspective.

the authors feel that foresight studies are used not optimally (see 32). An important challenge has to do with connecting the outcomes of futures research to decision-making processes.

Da Costa et al. 25 also conclude that foresight results can only be taken on board by policy-makers

it is very important to position foresight studies within the complex process of building and connecting to other activities,

whether foresight is identical at both levels, and the prefixes‘local'and‘national'do not serve any purpose with regard to foresight studies.

Different methods of foresight (for example different types of qualitative scenarios) are available, different reasons and motives for setting up a foresight study may be legitimate,

different ways of using foresight studies are possible, and, finally, there are many different local and national government organisations, each with there own mandate, nature, structure, problems and opportunities.

The national and local level foresight studies indicate that it is difficult to determine levers or barriers that are valid in every case,

which is why a contingency view on designing foresight studies is recommended highly. References 1 A. Hines, B. Bishop, Thinking About the Future.

Guidelines for Strategic foresight, Social Technologies, LLC, Washington, 2006.2 K. van der Heijden, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, Chichester, 2005.3 H. Kahn, A. Wiener, The Year 2000, Macmillan, New york, 1967.4 P. Schwartz, The Art of the Long View, Wiley

, New york, 1997.5 K. van der Heijden, The Sixth sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios, Wiley, New york, 2002.6 EEA, Looking back on looking forward:

a review of evaluative scenario literature, in: EEA Technical Report/No 3/2009,2009. 7 M. B. A. van Asselt, A. Faas, F. van der Molen, S. A. Veenman, Uit zicht.

C. Cagnin, F. Scapolo, The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (2008) 369 387.26 J. Schoonenboom, Toekomstscenario's en beleid,(Scenarios and policies), Beleid en Maatschappij

30 (2003) 212 217.27 Stuurgroep Toekomstonderzoek Strategisch Omgevingsbeleid, Terugblik op Toekomstverkenningen (Looking back at Foresight studies), The hague, The netherlands, 2000.29 M. Van der Steen

evaluating foresight that fits, Futures 44 (2012) 475 486.30 S. A. Van't Klooster, M. B. A. van Asselt, Practicing the scenario-axes technique, Futures 39 (6)( 2006) 15 30.31 M. Van der Steen, M. van der Vlist,

the case of the RWS2020-project, Foresight 12 (5)( 2010) 41 57.32 T. Yoda, Perceptions of domain experts on impact of foresight on policy making:

ART89.pdf

Global foresight: Lessons from a scenario and roadmapping exercise on manufacturing systems Cristiano Cagnin a b,,

This paper addresses FTA and in particular foresight design and management in an international context. The aim is to draw lessons for international foresight processes on the basis of a specific international foresight project on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems.

Foresight has been applied at global and regional levels to support the design and implementation of policies and strategies.

Examples range from the European commission through the Framework programmes and its Joint research Centre, the OECD through its International Futures Programme, UNIDO through its Technology foresight Initiative, the Asian-Pacific Economic cooperation (APEC) Centre for Technology foresight, the UK Foresight

Horizon scanning Centre, the Risk assessment and Horizon scanning (RAHS) programme in Singapore, among others. Many of the specific projects undertaken by these different organisations are documented well.

Innovation International foresight Roadmapping Scenarios Vision-building A b s T R A c T Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences,

and the diversity arising from a large number of participants are all characteristics of international foresight exercises.

and management of global foresight exercises building on the experience of designing and managing the Intelligent Manufacturing Systems (IMS) 2020 project.

This principle ensures that participants position the foresight exercise and their own activities in a global context.

This principle ensures that foresight activities are connected to both local and international decision-making structures. Overall, due to the heterogeneity of global projects, all four principles must also be implemented in keeping with a scalable design approach. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

This article aims to begin filling the gap by analysing the authors'experience with an international foresight project.

and managerial approaches that are likely to be conducive to a successful international foresight project. Projects of this kind are usually characterised by geographical dispersion

Section 2 examines the available literature on international foresight management and conceptualises design and managerial issues particularly relevant in the international context.

Four principles for global foresight design and management are identified. The ways in which these have been dealt with in practice are outlined in Section 3 on the basis of a case study,

when designing and managing an international foresight undertaking. Section 5 considers, on the one hand, how FTA projects like IMS hold out the promise of achieving better international coordination and joint preparedness for future grand challenges.

While on the other hand, the complicated attributes of international foresight exercises necessitates careful consideration of relevant design and managerial challenges in order to take into account scale, culture,

Section 6 summarises the main conclusions. 2. Global foresight design and management The design and management of global foresight projects,

Our contention is that these design requirements can be met on the basis of four guiding principles for global foresight.

These principles build on the international foresight literature and our experiences with a global foresight exercise that is described in Section 3. The four principles are:

Understanding interconnected innovation systems. Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures. Capacity to reconfigure international networks, and a‘glocal'impact orientation. 2. 1. Understanding interconnected innovation systems Before starting any foresight venture is important to have a clear idea of the system being analysed

and related interconnected systems (e g. social, technological, economic, environmental, political, value, cultural, among others) 6. Managers of international exercises must also take into account the distinctiveness of local, regional and national subsysstem around the world.

At the same time, a spectrum of foresight methods can be applied to develop a better understanding of possible future developments of the systems under analysis 7. In this context

Both struggle with temporal coordination of policies 8. Therefore, to enable an appropriate design, implementation and management of an international foresight exercise

when they affirm that one of the defining features of foresight is the creative generation of synthetic knowledge

form an important core capability that impacts on the ability of organisations to undertake strategic foresight.

In the international setting, those involved in the discussions may not be acquainted with foresight, or have different interpretations of it.

Here one of the major challenges is embed to the global foresight exercise in different local regional and national systems as well as within international sectoral networks and institutions.

The consideration of‘glocal'foresight impacts is close to the concept of‘adaptive foresight coined by Weber 22,

The latter claims that foresight needs to go beyond the level of a collective process to that of individual actors'strategies.

The basic idea is to add a process cycle to complement foresight with a phase of‘strategic counselling'.

Such flexibility can also serve diverse users of foresight results, thus leading to diverse impacts in different regions and conditions. 3. Case:

Therefore, the methodology set up (Fig. 2) for the IMS2020 foresight process was defined in a way that would ensure the highest relevance to inputs coming from the industrial community.

Fig. 2. IMS2020 modular foresight design. 4 A large community closely supported the project across its lifespan,

and an edited book. 4. Revisiting the principles for global foresight The IMS2020 scenario and roadmapping process shed light on some of the challenges that arise

when organising global foresight exercises. Table 1 summarises the main lessons learned using four principles that need to be taken into consideration when designing and managing an international foresight exercise.

The proposed framework (Fig. 1) offers guidance across variety of practical dimensions, including: how to link strategic objectives with the operational activities to be performed;

The modular foresight design described in Fig. 2 (Section 3) allowed engagement of numerous participants in different roles and with different kinds of contributions.

when designing and managing an international foresight exercise. 4. 1. Understanding interconnected innovation systems In the IMS2020 project the understanding of the global system of sub-systems was attained by mapping scientific literature,

This is because none of the partners beyond JRC-IPTS were acquainted with foresight and the alternative processes for building scenarios, joint visions and roadmaps.

Activities conducted within IMS 2020 Guiding principles for global foresight Understanding interconnected innovation systems Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures Capacity to reconfigure international networks A glocal impact orientation

State-of-the-art and expectations Analysis of co-patents and co-publications Use common foresight framework User of partner contacts and established networks for outreach (survey, interviews,

workshops) Use of common foresight with emphasis on expected impacts Literature review Online survey for the collection of ideas Scenarios and joint vision Multiple scenarios for synthesising drivers inputs in various forms

and has proved useful to kickoff discussions with diverse stakeholders with different or no understanding of foresight.

It highlighted some of the challenges in organising global foresight exercises. For instance, the scalable design was crucial for adapting to geographical dispersion and the large number of participants.

The identification of four principles for global foresight design and management, and the ways in which these have been dealt with in practice,

It also shows that it is beneficial to have all these principles embedded in the design of a foresight exercise

we conclude that online working tools offer major support for efficient and participatory management of global foresight.

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