Governance Emerging technologies Key enabling technologies Nanotechnology Public engagement Foresight Technology assessment Responsible research and innovation 1. Introduction As science and technology become more central to economic development,
Governments that established nanotechnology funding programs later, such as Denmark, used national level technology foresight processes to prepare
In this paper, FTA is used as the umbrella term covering subfields such as technology foresight, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping and technology assessment cf. the list in 29 and combining tools, ranging fromquantitative methods
The US and Germany differ with regard to their commitment to national-level foresight activities (as a highly comprehensive form of FTA.
In contrast to many other developed economies where technology foresight is used to support strategic decision-making, national-level technology foresight studies are seen not as a prominent activity in the science
and technology landscape of the United states. The U s. stands virtually alone in specifically avoiding centralized S&t planning
In contrast to the US, the German government has launched several technology foresight processes in the last decade 33,34.
In their United states case study on technology foresight in general, Porter and Ashton conclude: The pluralistic nature of the US R&d system, the diverse, dynamic nature of US national political bodies and the limitations of US foresight history makes centralized goal-setting across many
national issues in the US very unlikely 32. They see widespread skepticism among US leaders of most forms of centralized,
The term technology foresight has not been used with regard to future-oriented activities in nanotechnology, but considering the nano-related FTA of the last fifteen years,
As is the case in fully fledged technology foresight programs cf. 47 the activities under the umbrella of the National science and Technology Council Subcommittee were per se closely policy-related and, in the last decade,
Participation The NNI fulfilled the functions usually associated with foresight initiatives 59. The NNI's early nanotechnology assessment studies indicated to the public that policy was based on scientific knowledge information
Acknowledgements This paper builds on earlier research on the governance of nanotechnology in Germany funded by the German Research Foundation DFG and also on studies for an AIT funded project on the impact of foresight (Sufo Sustainable Foresight.
, 2009.26 P. Dannemand Andersen, B. Rasmussen, M. Strange, J. Haisler, Technology foresight on Danish nanoscience and nano-technology, Foresight, J. Futur.
International Handbook on Foresight and Science policy: Concepts and Practice, 2008, pp. 154 169.33 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to foresight processes new participative foresight activities in Germany, J. Forecast. 22 (2003) 93 111.34
K. Cuhls, A. Beyer-Kutzner, W. Ganz, P. Warnke, The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany, Technol.
Forecast. Soc. Chang. 76 (2009) 1187 1197.35 C. Milburn, Nanotechnology in the age of posthuman engineering:
foresight, engagement, and integration, in: O. A. Edward, J. Hackett, Michael E. Lynch, Judy Wajcman (Eds.
107 112). 47 I. Miles, The development of technology foresight: a review, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 77 (2010) 1448 1456.48 A. Zweck, G. Bachmann, W. Luther, C. Ploetz, Nanotechnology in Germany:
Econ. 4 (1997) 448 471.59 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C. Cagnin, F. Scapolo, The impact of foresight on policy-making:
Her current research focuses on foresight, governance of emerging technologies, and methods and practices of futuring. 452 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
Envisioning structural transformation lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation Elna Schirrmeister, Philine Warnke Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany a r t
Received 14 may 2011 Revised 25 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 2 november 2012 The paper aims to contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations.
Experiences from a foresight project exploring future innovation patterns (www. innovation-futures. org) are discussed. Four specific features were applied
Inductive foresight approach with an emphasis on capturing indications for extra-systemic change at a micro level instead of extrapolating seemingly dominant macro-trends.
and findings of the project and discuss in particular the implications for foresight methodology. We argue that all four innovative methodological features contributed in a specific way to opening up new perspectives on the future of innovation
Vision Structural transformation Inductive approach Foresight methodology Innovation pattern Visualisation Scenarios Weak signals 1. Introduction Envisioning structural transformation in foresight exercises is challenging.
many foresight exercises do not look into paradigm shifts but rather tackle different variants of the established system view.
In many cases mode 1 foresight 1 that fosters the recognition of intra-systemic alternatives, underpins the optimisation of robust strategies within the existing paradigm,
and ideas across stakeholder groups is suitable for meeting the objectives of the foresight exercise. For a growing number of cases, however
One prominent example is the case of priority setting for science, technology and innovation policy a highly relevant domain of foresight activities.
Sustainability is another realm where the need for foresight methods that are able to unlock the potential for paradigmatic change rather than just highlighting incremental improvements along current trajectories is strongly emerging.
The INFU (Innovation Futures) foresight project was set out to explore such future innovation landscapes. INFU was financed by the European commission in the 7th Framework programme Area Social sciences and Humanities (SSH.
The foresight project comprised four distinctive phases with different methodological approaches: 1. screening for signals of changes linked to innovation in a wide range of online
In Section 2 we outline the methodological framework of the INFU foresight exercise and highlight in particular the features that were foreseen to enable the capture of structural transformation.
Section 4 presents conclusions for future applications of transformative foresight. 2. INFU methodology The INFU project envisioned
Inductive foresight approach Visual inspiration Assessment of coverage of dimensions of change Extended openness for diversity (prolonged divergence.
In the following sub-sections these features are described in more detail. 2. 1. Inductive foresight approach There is a wide variety of foresight approaches differentiated not only by their objectives
This type of story-scripts has successfully been applied in previous foresight projects with similar objectives e g. 27.
foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations. Four methodological innovations were adopted in the project and contributed in a specific way to opening up newperspectives for thinking about the future of innovation and potential structural transformation of innovation processes:
and have been used to some extent in other foresight activities. However the combination of those four features has not been described before
This leads us to the conclusion that some of the features of the INFU methodology proved indeed suitable for tackling structural transformation in foresight exercises.
foresight methodology needs to be developed further. Wewould like to highlight some of the aspects of the INFU experience that seemto be of particular relevance to be explored further by foresight practitioners
users and clients. The open research approach of subcontracting mini panel co-ordinators without any constraints on the visioning methodology
The value of the contributions of actors from different perspectives was exploited much better than in conventional workshops where participants'contributions are documented by the foresight team.
We feel that the integration of elements fromdifferent foresight approaches such as weak signal scanning and diverse scenario approaches might help in addressing structural transformation.
We feel that this kind of approach holds a considerable potential for complementing established foresight methodology and that this potential is only just at the beginning of being exploited.
Accordingly, we conclude that similar approaches could serve in other foresight exercises to uncover and transcend perception filters.
Cagnin, F. Scapolo, The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Tech. Anal.
, L a. Smits, Foresight in Action: Developing Policy-oriented Scenarios, Earthscan Publ. Ltd. London u. a.,2010.19 F. Liebl, Rethinking trends
She has been Deputy Head of the Competence Center Innovation and Technology management and Foresight between 2009 and 2011.
As a mechanical engineer she has conducted various foresight projects on future prospects for industrial production and on research and innovation patterns on behalf of government authorities
Philine Warnke is a researcher in the Foresight & Policy development Department of the Austrian Institute of technology (AIT) in Vienna.
In the past ten years she has worked on Foresight at Fraunhofer ISI and at the European commission's institute for prospective technological studies JRC-IPTS.
Her research focuses on Foresight methodology and the mutual shaping of technology and society. 466 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466
this essay reflects on the implications of the current period of instability and discontinuity for the practice of FTA or foresight.
In the past the demand environment for foresight on research and innovation policy favoured application to priority-setting and articulation of demand.
Future-oriented Innovation Foresight Grand challenges Disruptive Transformations When circumstances become more turbulent it is often the case that an era is regarded retrospectively as one of calm
the term‘future-oriented technology analysis'seeks to apply a wider collective identity around several strategic intelligence activities including technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, assessment and modelling but faces a reality where the community regards FTA as the name
of the conference series and foresight as the label for most of the activities it presents.
and presentations discussed use the term foresight interchangeably. Let us then set the scene against
foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy, Futures 43 (3)( 2011) 243 251.10 L. Georghiou, Europe's research system must change, Nature 452 (2008) 935
T. Konnola, P. Warnke, R. Barré, S. Kuhlmann, Tailoring foresight to field specificities, Futures 43 (April 3 2011) 232 242.14 M. Weber
His research interests are demand-side innovation policy, foresight and evaluation. He is active in policy advice to governments and business and as Vice-president for Research and Innovation at the University of Manchester.
Her research interests are foresight and STI policy with a particular emphasis on small and transition economies.
She is active in foresight and R&i policy at the European and international level, serving on a number of EU expert groups. 470 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467
and in particular improving the‘‘embedding of Foresight into policy making processes''goals that have resonated strongly in all four FTA conferences.
and assess differences between policy foresight at the local/regional and national levels. By evaluating six Dutch Foresight exercises from the point of view of policy makers as‘‘users''of foresight studies they highlight the importance of taking into account differences between the national and local level when designing an FTA PROCESS.
A third paper, written by Cagnin and Ko nno la, can also be allocated to category (a). This paper suggests that endogenous improvement to FTA PROCESSES is about tailoring Foresight design to the specific applied context.
Cagnin and Ko nno la analyze success factors for international FTA PROCESSES. Again the authors take a more empirical or applied approach, by focusing on a particular case study, the‘‘Intelligent Manufacturing Systems 2020''project.
De Moor et al. develop the concept of‘‘Innovation Foresight ''(IF) as an approach for bringing the future into innovation processes.
For this purpose they combine Foresight with elements from market research innovation management and human-centred product design.
Like De Moor et al. this paper uses established Foresight theories applied to selected cases that provide evidence in support of their hypotheses.
Their arguments and analyses bring together theoretical concepts from innovation studies, innovation management and foresight. They use an analytical framework that they call the‘‘Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)''to make the case for the convergent development of innovation
and‘‘networked Foresight''.''Based on three case-studies, they conclude that a networked approach to future-oriented activities strengthens the results of FTAS
and suggest that networked foresight is‘‘the logical next generation of futures research.''''The time it has taken to edit
‘‘constant tension between foresight and FTA, with conflicting views on which is a subset of the other.''
On the foresight side not only was there considerable confusion and conflict at the level of methods,
As a result the foresight voices often appeared internally contradictory, starting out from the premise of the unknowability of the future
and research agendas it is little wonder that at times the foresight community expressed concerns, like in 2004,
as if FTA TOOLS and Foresight more generally are used just to respond to policy and business questions as they arise,
and Foresight practitioners to ongoing demands for studies that address our continuously changing complex emergent context.
and implementation of FTA and foresight avoid incoherence or even contradictions between methods and outcomes.
In the view of the editors of this Special issue the FTA and Foresight communities may be at a turning point:
At the moment many conversations in the foresight community point towards the emergence of a shared sense-making framework, one that could help to map current undertakings as well as,
and organization of anticipatory systems seems to offer shared sense-making framework for the FTA and Foresight communities.
Hopefully the FTA and Foresight communities will be able to continue to build humanity's capacity to understand the future through conferences such as FTA,
The impact of national traditions and cultures on national foresight processes Per Dannemand Andersen*,Lauge Baungaard Rasmussen Department for Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstorvet 424,2800 Lyngby
, Denmark 1. Introduction This paper originates from two issues that are being discussed in the current academic literature on foresight and in the international foresight community.
The first issue concerns the integration of foresight into national policy-making processes. Foresight projects have often been carried out as stand-alone activities
and have been partly decoupled from the processes into which the results of the foresight must feed.
Many foresight exercises have had no impact on policy-making. This lack of impact has led policy-makers to require that the content of foresight exercises relate to current political agendas
and that their processes relate to policy making processes 1. Academic research has explored also this issue, focusing on different characterisations and typologies of foresight projects 2 3. The literature has suggested that foresight must be an integral part of policy-making processes 4,
and concepts such as adaptive foresight 5 and systemic foresight 6 have been suggested for the development of more tailored foresight processes.
Among the contributions to this discussion, the key conclusion is that there is no one-size-fits-all'approach to foresight.
Context matters. The fact that context matters leads to the other issue that this paper originates from
namely, the context to which foresight processes are to be adapted. In a discussion of the use of the concept of systems thinking in foresight, Saritas distinguishes between external and internal context 6. The external context is the set of STEEPV factors (Social, Technological, Economical, Environment, Political
and Values) that affect the content of a foresight exercise. The internal context relates to the structures and behaviours of the organisation or system in
which a foresight exercise is organised and carried out. This organisation or system includes all parties and institutions (e g. administrative system and political system) that are involved in the performance of a foresight process and implementation of the results.
This paper focuses on internal context. There is no doubt that each foresight exercise must be adapted narrowly to its actual context.
Nevertheless, both practitioners who are carrying out foresight processes and academics who are studying foresight processes need to simplify Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Available online 22 january 2014 Keywords: Foresight Governance National culture Policy making A b s T R A c T This paper addresses the influence of national traditions, styles or culture on the use of foresight in decision-making processes.
Inspired by sociologists'contributions on national culture, the paper demonstrates that two dimensions of national culture,
which national foresight exercises are carried out. The paper is based on two Danish cases: The Danish Government's Globalisation Strategy, from 2005,
All rights reserved. the real world through different characterisations and typologies of both foresight projects and their contexts.
The literature has suggested several simplified contexts for foresight. Some of the literature has suggested that a decisive context for national foresight exercises relates to the size of the country.
The seminal book Foresight in Science by Irvine and Martin analysed processes in France, West germany, the United states and Japan
which were, in effect, the world's four largest economies at that time 7. In opposition to this focus,
In a paper titled‘Foresight in Smaller Countries',Crehan and Harper analysed foresight in Malta, Cyprus and Estonia 8. In another example, Glod,
Duprel and Keenan recently published a paper entitled‘Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country:
The Handbook of Technology foresight, has chapters on four of such regions: the Nordic countries, industrialising Asia, Latin america,
In line with this regional approach to contextual categorisation, Keenan and Popper have discussed regional styles of foresight for six regions 11.
and using foresight in policy-making. The paper argues that this concept provides a more useful approach to the decisive context of foresight than the size or regional affiliation of a country.
Hence, the aim of this paper is to contribute, in general, to the discussion of national (or political, governing,
and industrial) culture's effect on national foresight exercises, and more narrowly, on priority setting in science, technology and innovation policies.
In the paper, we broadly adopt the European foresight Platform's definition of foresight as‘a systematic, participatory,
'In parallel with the term‘foresight',the term‘future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)' is used by the European commission's Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), for example.
JRC-IPTS has defined FTA as‘a common umbrella term for technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment'12.
As, in practice, both foresight and FTA draw on, by and large, the same methodological foundation, this paper draws on the literature for both terms.
and introduces a conceptual framework for analysing cultural differences in foresight and planning. Section 3 contains background information on the Danish economy and culture
and (c) Danish experiences with technology foresight. Empirically, this section is based on publicly available reports and internet information from relevant governmental bodies (ministries and agencies.
and discussed. 2. National traditions and governance culture as context for foresight In this section, we introduce a conceptual framework of national traditions
and governance culture for analysing foresight and priority setting in science, technology and innovation policies. 2. 1. Sociologists'and anthropologists'perception of culture Cultural differences and styles are very hard to quantify,
These two dimensions are of interest in foresight because, as Hofstede notes, these two dimensions have obvious consequences for the way in
both the power distance and uncertainty avoidance might affect the use of foresight in at least three areas:
the use of longer-term planning tools such as foresight in general, the selection of foresight methods, and the inclusion of experts and citizens.
The power distance dimension has implications for societies'need for subordinate consultation and thus for participatory elements of foresight exercises.
Societies with lower power distance might be more likely favour interaction (citizen consultation) based foresight methodologies
In high power distance societies, we could expect expertise and evidence based foresight methodologies, such as Expert Panels, Interviews, Modelling and Literature reviews.
In particular, three of these implications relate to foresight: types of planning, meaning of time, and tolerance for deviant ideas.
The first implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to a society's view on planning in general.
There are most likely few risks affiliated with carrying out significant foresight exercises but implementing the results into real policies might be difficult in a society with more uncertainty avoidance.
A more careful investigation might reveal that societies with lower levels of uncertainty avoidance might be less willing to launch significant foresight exercises
but more willing to implement bold new policies that may result from a foresight exercise. The second implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to the meaning of time
and thus on how the future is perceived. According to Hofstede, the uncertainty avoidance dimension impacts the question of‘‘how a society reacts on the fact that time only runs one way
The third implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to tolerance for deviant ideas.
The tolerance for deviant ideas also has implications for the selection of methods that include stakeholders in a foresight process.
The Danish hybrid Hofstede's cultural typology needs to be supplemented with a socioeconomic typology in order effectively to analyse the national specificity of foresight exercises.
This hybrid socioeconomic position of Denmark combined with the cultural aspects of low levels of power distance and uncertainty avoidance have important implications for the specificity of the foresight exercises in Denmark.
and formulating the technology foresight programmes. Third, the low level of power distance and uncertainty avoidance combined with dense networking
and companies in Denmark support the initiation of participatory consensus approaches 2. 4. National styles in foresight and foresight methods In a recent paper,
Keenan and Popper discussed regional styles in foresight. In their context, the term‘‘regional''refers to geographical clusters of countries 11.
which a foresight exercise is carried out reflects three factors, of which two are the most important. The first factor is the contextual landscape in
which the foresight activity is embedded. This landscape includes local economic, political and sociocultural contexts that might differ from region to region.
Keenan and Popper focus on foresight as a political instrument, and naturally, make some simplifying assumptions about political traditions.
The second factor is the history of foresight diffusion and adoption. The key point of view here is that history matters in the sense that foresight activities are inspired often by earlier activities in other countries.
For each of the six regions, Keenan and Popper compare issues such as scale of participation in the foresight project and methods used.
Here, Keenan and Popper rely on another paper by Popper which suggests a taxonomy for foresight methods 26.
Popper suggests that foresight methods can be characterised by their ability to gather or process information, based on four abilities:
evidence, expertise, interaction and creativity, or combinations of these abilities. Creative abilities refer to the mixture of original and imaginative thinking.
Expertise refers to the skills and knowledge of individuals in the particular area of the foresight exercise.
Expert Panels and to some extent Delphi surveys are examples of foresight methods that have a high content of expertise.
Futures workshops and citizens panels are examples of foresight methods that have high interaction content. Finally
According to Popper, most foresight methods comprise a mix of several of the four abilities. As the practical use of foresight methods varies significantly from case to case,
such a categorisation of methods must be considered as only indicative. See Fig. 2 in Section 4. 3. One of the clearest observations in Keenan
and Popper's analysis of regional styles in the use of foresight methods is oriented that interaction methods,
L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 9 common use in South Europe and South america and totally absent among the top 10 foresight methods in Northwest Europe and North america.
This fact challenges Keenan and Popper's factors for explaining variations and similarities in regional foresight data.
it challenges the role of the history of foresight diffusion and adoption across and within the regions of many countries.
but the foresight activities of each country might reflect, to a higher degree, sociocultural traditions of power distance and uncertainty avoidance than foresight traditions in neighbouring countries. 3. The Danish context in relation to foresight The intention of this section is to sketch elements of Danish‘‘style
''foresight based on the socioeconomic and cultural features described above. 3. 1. Danish traditions and cultural context of governmental foresight and long range planning As history and cultural context are important,
this section contains background information for understanding the use of governmental foresight and long range planning.
Denmark was not among the first countries to adopt foresight and similar systematic processes in policy making in science, technology and innovation policies or other policy areas.
This late adoption may be due to several reasons. First, during the 1970s, Denmark had some rather negative experiences with prospective planning.
In two prospective plans (Perspektivplan I and II) from 1971 and 1974, the government analysed social trends and developments 15 and 20 years ahead for the public and private sectors, respectively.
Expertiseinteractioncreativ ityevidenc eexpe rt pan elsexpe rt pap ersdialogu e meeting sindicatorsconferencesfactshee tsuserpan elsworkshopshorizon scann ing Fig. 2. Foresight methods used in the two cases:
Consequently, there was less need for policy mechanisms like foresight to define priorities for the governmental expenditure on r&d.
The combination of the widespread use of policy evaluations and the DBT's parliamentary technology assessment might have constituted a platform for policy making that would make the need for foresight less urgent.
In conclusion, historically, Denmark has had a weak tradition of applying foresight and similar systematic, forwardloookin processes in national-level policy making.
This changing context has created a need for foresight understood to be political priority-setting for strategic research. 3. 2. Danish experiments with technology foresight In a green paper from 1995,
and refer to foresight programmes in the UK, Germany, The netherlands and Japan. In 1998, the Danish Board of Technology established an independent working group to analyse
and assess the feasibility of a technology foresight programme in Denmark. In this study, technology foresight was defined as‘‘dialogue activities and analyses of long-term developments in science, technology,
economy and society with the aim of identifying technologies which may have economical and/or societal significance''29.
The working group recommended that the Danish parliament launched a programme for technology foresight that has a budget of DKK 25 30 million (ca. EUR 3. 3 4. 2 million) over three years.
A technology foresight programme was established with the centre-left government's 2000 business development strategy 30. The strategy contains the following statement:‘.
‘the Government will take the initiative to implement a project on technology foresight in Denmark. The aim is to increase knowledge
'1 Hence, technology foresight was seen to be part of the government's business policy and not, in particular, part of science policy,
A pilot programme for foresight was launched early in 2001. The allocated budget consisted of DKK 24 million (ca. EUR 3. 2 million) for the period of 2001 2004.
and the technology foresight programme was moved to 1 Authors'translation. P. D. Andersen L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 11 the new Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.
the budget for the technology foresight programme was reduced to DKK 18 million (ca. EUR 2. 4 million).
Under this pilot programme, nine technology foresight exercises were carried out in three rounds. Following the second round, an additional two exercises were carried out by the Agency for Forest and Nature and the Agency for Environmental Protection.
Due to the experimental nature of the programme, a range or foresight methods were tested during the eleven projects.
Although Denmark was not among the first countries to adopt foresight explicitly, it must be noted that over several decades,
Denmark has carried out foresight-like processes and strategic planning within individual sectors. For example various energy action plans have many similarities to foresight, both with regard to the processes and results.
Another example is the widespread use of futures workshops and citizens panels in municipal and regional planning.
In the latter case, the focus is on the inclusion of and interaction with the wider public and not on expertise-oriented types of foresight methods. 4. Two cases:
responsible organisations as a foresight exercise or as having used foresight methods. Nevertheless, the Globalisation Council's process included both expertiseorieente foresight methods (expert panels, expert discussion papers), evidence-oriented foresight methods (indicators and fact reports) and interaction-oriented foresight methods
(conferences, workshops, stakeholder inclusion. The Research2015 process included foresight methods such as horizon scanning, expert panels, user panels, dialogue meetings, conferences and workshops.
In Fig. 2, the foresight methods that were applied in the two cases are indicated using Popper's Diamond,
as described in Section 2. 4 in this paper. The two processes also show some traits that are expected for a country that has low uncertainty avoidance and low power distance.
The country's low uncertainty avoidance is reflected in several ways in the two cases. When during the Research2015 process, the expert group worked to reduce the number of themes for strategic research
and negotiations among societal stakeholders mirror the‘mobilising joint actions'content of the European foresight Platform's definition of foresight,
L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 15 5. Conclusion and perspectives This paper aims to contribute to the discussion of national cultures'effects on national foresight exercises.
national foresight exercises must be integrated better into the actual national policy making processes. We also proceeded from the perception that there is no one-size-fits-all'approach to national foresight exercises.
Context matters. Instead of using country size or a country's regional affiliation (such as Western europe or Asia),
and using foresight in policy making. To qualify the concept of national governance culture, we have suggested drawing on the classical work of Geert Hofstede.
The findings of this paper have implications for foresight practitioners and policy makers. In this paper the concept has successfully been applied for analysing recent foresight in Denmark.
The Danish negotiation culture due to a low degree of power distance and uncertainty avoidance as well as an approach that combines market and non-market coordination mechanisms, cannot be emulated directly in countries that have a very different cultural context.
and even more careful when planning cross-national foresight exercises. Even between culturally neighbouring countries, such as Denmark and Sweden, large differences exist in governance culture,
Most of the academic foresight literature is of a descriptive and normative type and reflects the practice of foresight in different contexts.
We have shown an improved framework for comparing and analysing national differences on foresight. However, there is still much to be understood about national governance cultures'effects on foresight,
and there is a need for more systematic research on this topic. Acknowledgements An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 12 13 may 2011, JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville, Spain.
The authors are thankful to Doris Schartinger from the Austrian Institute of technology for comments on the early version of the paper and to the anonymous reviewers who,
brought our attention to Hall and Soskice's book Varieties of Capitalism and Saritas'paper on Systemic Foresight methodology.
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