and associating the future technology themes in foresight reports with a state of the-art-the art technology classification system. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrative method for systematically clustering,
Design/methodology/approach Delphi topics related to sustainable energy were collected from strategic foresight reports of Japan South korea and China,
Findings By this standard mapping taxonomy and structured analysis, future technology themes in strategic foresight reports from countries in focus are mapped systematically
if this structured analysis could be applied more broadly across different geographic regions or across research areas in foresight reports.
This research may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification framework to make comparison and aggregation of future technology options from different countries/regions.
Originality/value The integrative method in this research provides a way to combine both the advantage of strategic technology foresight
Keywords Strategic technology foresight, Competitive technology intelligence, Delphi topic analysis, International patent classification system, Sustainable energy, Innovation, Forward planning Paper type Research paper 1
. Introduction Foresight and competitive intelligence (CI) are two fields that seek to address future-oriented environmental scanning (Calof and Smith, 2010.
Foresight activities have become more and more popular all over the world and the proliferation of foresight activities among all sorts of economies can be observed.
Also, the rule of foresight has changed from the previous explorative forecasting to more be come more oriented to strategic planning (Martin, 1995.
Foresight is undertaken no longer with the claim to forecast or predict a certain future situation, but recognizes the possibility of alternative futures
and also tries to shape or create PAGE 54 jforesight j VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013, pp. 54-73, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1463-6689 DOI
Therefore, many countries not only use foresight as a tool to improve anticipatory intelligence but also use it as a priority-setting tool.
In some Asian countries such as Japan, South korea and China, foresight has been taken as a tool for priority setting or R&d agenda setting.
Japan has utilized the result of the 8th Foresight activity to form the Innovation 25 policy and the result of the 3rd Foresight activity of South korea has resulted in 21 future technology areas.
Also, China has used the result of foresight for selection of their critical technologies. Even in some small countries in Europe like Austria
foresight results have been used for the implementation of policy measures (Aichholzer, 2001. Competitive intelligence is a systematic way to collect
and analyze public information about competitors and use it to make decisions. The context and importance of competitive intelligence is based partly on the resource-based theory,
A new integrated domain strategic intelligence and foresight on technology (SIFT), a combination of CTI and Strategic technology foresight (STF) was proposed recently by Calof and Smith (2010).
They indicated that STF can be both a source of CTI and a means for its application.
STF is derived from technology foresight and foresight, where the emphasis VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 55 is not only on the technologies of the future
they are of a shorter duration to foresight and are more of a predictive nature than STF.
During the input phase or preparatory phase of many different foresight activities, technology or research topic mapping by reviewing existing foresight activity is becoming more and more popular.
One such is called a foresight activity‘‘FISTERA, ''which is a large-scale technological foresight study that was designed to benchmark current information society technologies (ISTS)
and develop strategies for future ISTS in order to realize the goal stated in the Lisbon Objective (Fujii,
) In FISTERA, many national foresight exercise reports were scanned and important ISTS were listed and scouted. In Delphi Austria, an analysis of the Japanese, German, French, British Delphi studies was conducted to separate
In addition, after the Delphi Austria foresight process, the results of the Austria Technology Delphi were reclassified also according to the standard classifications of industry
Another famous example is the foresight activity mapping used by the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN), a Europe-wide network inspired
and financed by the European commission within the framework of the Foresight Knowledge sharing Platform implemented under the Research Framework programme (FP7).
and socioeconomic sectors which the collected foresight activity explicitly address, are fingerprinted based on the Frascati Manual classification and the NACE code classification,
and industry development from foresight collected from all over the world. In the foresight experience of small countries such as the foresight activity conducted in Austria named‘‘Delphi Austria,
''foresight activity was regarded as a‘‘search tool''to identify their strengths in R&d, and in particular to identify innovation potentials
and niches within technology trends where Austria might find opportunities to achieve leadership within the next 15 years (Aichholzer, 2001).
It has been shown that fingerprinting of foresight activities by using a widely accepted or standard classification system will make it easier to take a cross-foresight comparison and for analysis. Therefore, a structured mapping method that uses a worldwide accepted international classification system i e.
International Patent Classification (IPC) is applied as a basis for the mapping of the contents of future technology themes
and has become a widely accepted and frequently used research method, especially for foresight or for future oriented research.
) Previous publications have proved that the technique is established an method for foresight activities and that Delphi outperforms other group formats such as statistical groups or standard interacting groups in terms of effectiveness (Rowe and Wright, 1999).
Meanwhile, the communication effect of Delphi studies and the value of the process are acknowledged also. 2. 2 Basic information for the scanned Delphi topics The Delphi topics used for sustainable energy are chosen from foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China.
Table I summarizes the basic information for the scanned foresight reports and details for their foresight activities.
By proper selection of sustainable energy related topics, the Delphi topics were extracted first based upon their original category in the foresight reports.
Delphi topics collected from the scanned foresight reports are diversified somehow and have subtle differences in the scope of their descriptions.
I Basic information for scanned foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China Japan South korea China Report Title The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Delphi Analysis Prospect of future society
& future technology of Korea-challenges and opportunities (Korea 2030) China's Report of Technology foresight 2004 Report year 2005 2005 2004 Project promoter/initiator Ministry of Education
, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan The Ministry of Science and Technology of the Republic of korea Ministry of Science and Technology agency or organization responsible for the foresight activity Science and Technology foresight Center, National Institute
of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP) Foresight and Strategy Planning Team, Korean Institute of S&t Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), The Science
and Technology policy Research institute (STEPI) Technology foresight Research team, National research Center for Science and Technology for Development Time horizon 2035 2030 2020 Original category Energy and resources Energy
In addition, the content of Delphi topics depends on the time horizon of the foresight activities. For example, the foresight activity of Japan has up to a 30-year time horizon,
and hence the technology trends provided by the scanned Delphi survey will provide a long-term view while the result from patent analysis for CTI or for forecasting provide a short-term view.
Table II Overall procedures for mapping of Delphi topics Procedure Description Step 1 Collect Delphi topics from foresight reports of Japan, South korea and China Step 2
Select topics related to sustainable energy based on the original category in the foresight reports and confirmed by domain experts Step 3 Identify the technology/product keywords
and implications Since the time horizons surveyed in the three scanned foresight report are different, the Delphi topics need to be screened again based on their realization time for cross-country comparison.
but the forecasting time horizon for the whole foresight activity was set at up to the year 2020, by
3. 2 Mapping interactions across technologies from the top 25 percent important Delphi topics in each country Since the foresight results of these three countries were intended to be used for reference in priority setting
Therefore, the top 25 percent important Delphi topics before 2020 are selected according to the foresight result in each country,
and associating the future technology themes described in strategic foresight reports from selected countries with a state of the-art-the art technology classification system.
One is to help solving the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies,
Also, the method combines both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence, by utilizing the results derived from the former as a target for analysis
When entering into the foresight phase, such kinds of research output can be used as a knowledge base for brainstorming among participants,
The result of the analysis is based on the foresight activities of three large Northeast Asian countries and some of the technology interactions are prospected differently by these three countries.
Third, since the mechanism of incorporating of foresight results into research or development priorities is different in each country,
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Her research interests include foresight, technology roadmap, and patent analysis. Hai-Chen Lin is the corresponding author and can be contacted at:
His research interests include foresight, data mining, and learning technologies. Cheng-Hua Ien received A MS degree in Food Science and Technology from Taiwan University in 1983.
Her research interests include foresight, technology roadmap, and patent analysis. VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 73 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 3. Combining quantitative and qualitative approaches FTA is an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools (technology foresight,
an important part of the FTA toolkit, namely foresight, would be eclipsed in case the use of advanced quantitative methods is declared'always necessary,
foresight as part of the broader set of FTA) on innovation systems and governance structures? To what extent the current decision-makers and other major‘gatekeepers'would be open to launch and finance such exercises,
Schirrmeister and Warnke 14 contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations by proposing an original methodological approach that combines four specific features:
Schirrmeister and Warnke 14 contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations by sharing their experience on a project that explores future innovation patterns.
12 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt, Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty, Technol.
14 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke, Envisioning structural transformation lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation, Technol.
and practice in RTDI (Research, Technology development and Innovation), business strategy and sustainability, environment management, cleaner production and foresight.
and regional editor of the International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy. His academic interests are in economics of innovation theory and practice of innovation policy, and technology foresight.
In 1997 2000 he was the Programme Director of TEP, the Hungarian technology foresight programme. He has contributed to international research projects on STI policies, innovation,
as well as on foresight and prospective analyses, and been a member of several EU expert groups. He has advised national governments and international organisations on the above issues.
Ozcan Saritas (Phd) is a Senior Research fellow at the Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR formerly PREST;
and the editor of Foresight: the journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy. His research activity has been focused mostly upon long-term policy
and strategy making with particular emphasis upon foresight methodologies and their implementation in socioeconomic and technological fields at the supranational, national, regional and sectoral levels. 385 C. Cagnin et al./
(which comprises Foresight, Forecasting and Technology assessment), 1 foresight practitioners have concentrated traditionally on participatory methods based on qualitative data,
on the grounds that quantitative extrapolation from past data is not sufficient to address the uncertainties of the future
whether foresight performs better than quantitative approaches in supporting the design of effective policies. The answer is,
what makes foresight successful. Literature has paid however little systematic attention to evaluating the actual impact of foresight 16,17.
In the call for papers, the 2011 FTA Scientific Committee argued that the exclusive use of qualitative methods can lead to partial views on possible futures,
In addition, several authors indicate that foresight reproduces or projects current knowledge and assumptions 19,20 and does not tell us much about the future.
Valette 32 points at opportunities for foresight exercises that combine expert-based contrasted socioeconomic and policy scenarios (qualitative part) and a mathematical quantification of the impacts of the alternative scenarios (quantitative part)( p. 239.
and radical innovations via 5 The European foresight monitoring Network is one of the few attempts to take stock of quantitative and qualitative foresight methods.
suggesting that the need for combining methods is less felt than in the foresight communities, possibly because foresight is more recent and still wants to prove its usefulness. 388 K. Haegeman et al./
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 identification of emerging clusters analysing citations and keywords for a particular technology field,
and methods of social scanning and prediction markets could be used to improve professional forecasting and foresight in an era of complex phenomena and disruptive events with high level of uncertainties.
When used in combination with foresight data collected online, network analysis can be used to enable robust analysis of foresight data,
which are often complex to present and codify. Nugroho and Saritas 42 propose a framework for this, building on online foresight survey data,
and by pointing at benefits in the various phases of a foresight process: it reveals the structural features of the data
and can inform the foresight process on emerging links or relationships, groups or clusters. The implication for foresight methods is that network analysis can introduce a‘systemic'perspective emphasising relationships between actors,
key issues and trends. Visualisation techniques and strategic design: During the 2011 International Seville Conference on FTA, the use of images and visualisation techniques was suggested as a tool,
both for better explaining (quantitative and qualitative) methodologies adopted and for results obtained. A method that makes use of visualisation techniques is the application of strategic design in addressing societal challenges.
and foresight seems to be unexplored rather. The idea that one can forecast or predict the future seems to be contradicting the idea of developing multiple futures
using foresight. In reality, predicting certain elements of a broader system such as demographic developments is not in contradiction in any way with developing multiple futures.
or a foresight practitioner identifying the right stakeholders to invite to a workshop). Second, when FTA and especially foresight is addressing the intrinsically uncertain challenge of devising possible futures,
subjectivity, meant as expert/stakeholder opinion, is effectively a source of creativity and as such should be exploited fully.
In general, foresight aims also to envisage a wide and contrasted set of options that can be devised by eliciting experts'knowledge.
or they simply distrust the foresight process, because they have not been involved themselves 67. Finally, policy-makers are concerned still very much with the shorter term,
Such sectors include energy 32 (see the Energy Foresight Network: www. efonet. org), transport and climate change.
As a result, their direct involvement in the foresight process will not only increase its robustness, it may also lead to higher acceptance levels and legitimacy.
The experience of the European foresight Platform (www. foresight-platform. eu) could provide some relevant inputs towards this endeavour.
Proficiency and Publishing. 14 Da Costa et al. 72 illustrate the stepwise organisation of the participatory process by suggesting the application of varying degrees of participation in each phase of the foresight process
and thus tailoring foresight phases to different foresight functions. 15 Typically, quantitative models present higher credibility for shorter time horizons,
For forecast exercises, past performance can be validated by comparing predictions to reality. 16 Foresight on the other hand does not claim to predict the future
if at all possible, the benefits derived from the foresight process itself (such as for instance network building and improved collaboration) and the improvement of the decision-making process,
whether organisations (including private companies) that consistently adopt foresight approaches, perform ultimately better than those that do not.
17,74 moves a step closer into the direction of assessing the impact of foresight, but a long way is still to go.
Much can also be learnt from the experience that the field of foresight has developed in dialogue and communication in support of building trust amongst stakeholders.
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and in organising several foresight trainings and International Seville Conferences on Future-oriented technology analysis. He has been publishing articles and reports on anticipatory and analytical research in support of European RTDI policy and on new methods and tools for FTA.
and at the JRC-IPTS she is developing a specific interest in their combination and application in foresight exercises.
She is involved currently in several FTA ACTIVITIES including the European foresight Platform and the ERA NET Rus project. 396 K. Haegeman et al./
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 Fabiana Scapolo holds a Phd on foresight methodologies and practices from the Manchester University (UK).
which may affect future European public policies by applying horizon scanning and foresight. She has worked in several foresight projects mainly in the advancement of the application of foresight as an instrument for policy-making formulation.
Andrea Ricci is Vice president of ISIS Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems, Rome.
He received his engineering degree at Ecole Centrale (Paris). His key qualifications are Sustainability Policy analysis and impact assessment, and foresight studies.
and Innovative Approaches) and EFONET (Energy Foresight Network) and is rapporteur of the EC Working group Global Europe 2030 2050.
Professor Alexander Sokolov is Deputy Director of the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge and Director of the International foresight Centre at the Higher School of economics (HSE) one of the most prominent national research universities
and internationally devoted to Foresight and S&t and innovation policies; managed several national S&t foresight exercises in Russia,
participated in dozens of international projects. Alexander Sokolov is a member of a number of high-level expert groups at the OECD and other international organisations. 397 K. Haegeman et al./
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This paper concludes that EMA is useful for generating foresights and studying systemic and structural transformations despite the presence of a plethora of uncertainties,
including technology forecasting, technology intelligence, future studies, foresight, and technology assessment 1. In their own ways each of these approaches is used for analyzing technological developments and their potential consequences.
It thus explicitly addresses one of the FTA challenges identified by Porter et al. 1 by assessing how EMA could contribute to adaptive foresight 10 under deep uncertainty.
EMA addresses one of the often mentioned shortcomings of foresight, namely its impressionistic character 10.3.
Porter et al. 1 argued that foresight exercises could not comprehensively explore the full range of scenarios that is encompassed by the many irreducible uncertainties encountered
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long-term forward-looking intervention, inter-ministerial, demand-side instruments combined and coordinated with supply-side instruments, based on foresight,
Thus through trial-and-error and learning-by-doing 1 The Cost Action A22 network was a four year program (2004 2007) entitled Foresight methodologies Exploring new ways to explore the future and funded by the Individuals, Societies, Culture
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The 3rd SCAR foresight exercise (see Appendix 1) also falls into this group with its focus on research priorities
In the project report, the insights of the foresight exercise are used to articulate the research priorities. Still, the implementation could be improved with regards to knowledge dissemination e g. education
IPTS and different past and present foresight network initiatives such as the European foresight Platform and Forlearn for organizing creative discussion platforms on foresight and scenario initiatives.
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On a broad range of regional and EU projects, involving foresight and integrated assessment, Peter worked together with experts
Currently Peter works at the Research centre of the Flemish Government where he is in charge of foresight and sustainability assessment.
Furthermore, he is an expert in foresight and scenario methodologies, where his interests are focused on how to handle trans-disciplinary conflicts and scientific uncertainty.
) He is Professor of Entrepreneurship and Strategic foresight. His academic mission is to understand how futures are created
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