Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
Prime minister's Office is in charge of the work for each government foresight report. The work is carried out in co-operation especially with the Ministries relevant as regards the topic of the foresight report
as well as with other ministries and public organisations. Also a large group of experts from research institutes, private companies,
In 2008-2009 The Finnish Prime minister's Office coordinated the construction of the government foresight report on climate and energy policy (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
In the course of the work for the foresight report discussed here, the government commissioned several studies on issues concerning the effects
Furthermore, one part of the work done for the foresight report, and the part on which this paper concentrates, was a scenario process aimed at depicting possible end states
Before and partly simultaneously while preparing the government foresight report on climate and energy policy, the government also decided on a long-term climate
whereas in the foresight report work it was set up for 2050. These two works (foresight report and strategy) supported
and complemented each other. Before FFRC was invited to facilitate the scenario process, the Prime minister's Office had identified already the desired goal for the year 2050:
the foresight exercise was about forming different backcasting scenarios to the desired future. The approach of using backcasting was predetermined also specifically.
The preordained backcasting scenario approach was notable in this foresight process in two senses: 1. by their nature backcasting scenarios are typically normative (target orientated),
In government foresight process, the majority of participants were experts but the results of the ongoing foresight and scenario work were communicated to the general public via the internet for comments and discussion.
The workshop produced a considerable amount of material concerning the workings of the Finnish society
in addition to providing the background for the four scenarios that were the final result of the whole foresight process.
Results and policy implications The final results of the foresight process were four scenarios that all fulfil the targets of reducing GHG emissions by at least 80 per cent from the 1990's levels
The results of these calculations are presented in the Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009, pp. 160-184.
External and internal evaluations The Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy was completed and approved in the government and by Parliament in October 2009.
A year after that, the government commissioned an evaluation on the effectiveness of the preparation process that would comment on the general progress of the process as well as the usability of this kind of foresight work in policy planning.
One has to bear in mind that the evaluation concerned the whole foresight report, of which the FFRC's scenario work represented only one part.
and the full scenarios were published only as attachments in the completed foresight report. All in all, three evaluations of the government futures report were conducted where the scenario process was discussed also:
The Committee for the Future (2011) supported the government foresight report. The Committee had its own analyses of the Finnish climate policy made on three aspects:
The Committee also paid attention in its statement to the fact that the government foresight report chose as its only starting point the success of the Copenhagen Climate Agreement.
In the evaluation of government foresight report by Wilenius (2011), attention was drawn to the fact that the government foresight report could have dug deeper into the economic implications of climate and energy policy
The extent of constructing scenarios in the government foresight report was defined as unique and pioneering. Wilenius (2011) recommends the application of scenarios in the future as well,
and proposes that the focus in developing foresight reports should be, e g. on how scenario techniques could deal with long-term goals and path dependences to a more detailed degree.
Concerning the application of foresight methodologies used in this kind of work the statements of evaluation are encouraging.
2011 for those involved in the foresight report work to discuss retrospectively the process and reflect on the impacts of the foresight report.
Government Climate Policy Specialist Oras Tynkkynen who was responsible for the preparation of the report in the Prime minister's Office 3,
An open question remains how various ministries will connect themselves in implementing the recommendations and conclusions in Government Foresight report.
Regardless the choice of the methods, ample time to carry out the given foresight process so that it can best serve the needs of the client,
2. The scenario titles are here in the form that they are presented in Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
''3. The work for the foresight report was supervised by a ministerial working group. References A°kerman, J. 2011),‘Transport systems meeting climate targets.
Prime minister's Office (2009), Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy: Towards a Low-carbon Finland, Prime minister's Office Publication 30/2009, available at:
Assessment of the Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy'',Prime minister's Office, Helsinki, Prime minister's Office Publications 3/2011, available at:
Her expertise is concerned with futures research, sustainable development, technology foresight, energy and environment, and the future of communities.
Linking territorial foresight and urban planning Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell and Leticia Redondo Abstract Purpose This article aims to show the opportunity
and benefits of linking territorial foresight tools to urban planning procedures. Additionally, it suggests ways to reinforce the scenario design method with more in depth analysis,
In addition the study confirms that foresight offers interesting opportunities for urban planners, such as anticipating changes,
Originality/value The value of the present work lies in the synergy that can be generated between territorial foresight and urban planning
Keywords Territorial foresight, Scenario design, Urban planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. The oblivion of future studies in urban planning Since its origins in the nineteenth
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 317 3. The new concept of territorial foresight Three arguments are given to support the use of futures studies.
The answer could be called‘‘territorial foresight''.''According to several authors (Ferna'ndez Gu ell, 2006; Gavigan and Scapolo, 2001), territorial foresight can be defined as a systematic, participatory,
future intelligence gathering and vision-building process aimed at present-day decision making and mobilising joint initiatives in the urban and territorial realm.
Territorial foresight involves the implementation of five essential elements at a small geographic scale, in
Foresight is structured a way to anticipate and project long-term social, economic and technological developments and needs. 2. Vision.
Foresight elaborates a guiding strategic vision, which shares a sense of social commitment about a certain issue. 3. Action.
Foresight develops and implements strategic visions through detailed action plans, which enable current actions to tackle the future successfully.
Foresight intensively incorporates interactive, participatory methods that foster debate and analysis with a wide variety of stakeholders. 5. Networking.
Foresight forges new social networks for the exchange of ideas experiences and specific knowledge. Territorial foresight offers noteworthy tangible benefits.
First, it systematises the debate about future prospects for socioeconomic development amongst a wide variety of agents by building up plausible and coherent future visions.
and disseminate knowledge deriving from the foresight exercises amongst stakeholders and political decision-makers. In spite of the above-mentioned advantages, territorial foresight has clear limitations.
In the first place, foresight cannot tackle or resolve all the social, economic, environmental and political problems in a territory.
Second, foresight cannot impose consensus when there are deep disagreements between territorial stakeholders. Third, foresight is not a quick remedy for urgent problems
because it requires long analyses that do not produce immediate results. Finally, foresight requires certain policies that may be difficult to implement in emerging territorial institutions with little real power.
In contrast to traditional planning processes, which tend to have limited a sectoral scope, territorial foresight gradually builds up an integrated vision of the possible future through participation methods.
Foresight is thus complementary to the established planning processes feeding new elements and values into them, empowering local agents and providing legitimacy to territorial strategies.
Foresight methods are spreading progressively and are becoming a decisive element in many planning exercises. As a matter of fact, in the last few years territorial foresight has gathered increasing attention from various European public bodies.
The European commission's Foresight for Regional development Network (2001) published A Practical Guide to Regional foresight, which documented nine regional foresight exercises.
Likewise, several articles by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies have drawn attention to the potential of territorial foresight for decision making at the regional level (IPTS
2001). ) The European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007) has published also the findings of its project‘‘Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe'',in
which three spatial scenarios were set out for the horizon 2030 (European foresight Platform, 20115). Finally, the European foresight Platform, another European commission funded body, has made an intense effort to compile several regional foresight exercises within its Knowledge sharing Platform (European foresight Platform, 2011.
Despite the well-deserved interest and merit of the previous references, specialized literature still shows a substantial divorce between the scope and content of foresight exercises and the specific needs of urban planning.
On the one hand, most foresight exercises by social scientists are usually based on general narratives that are intellectually stimulating but rarely of much help to the physical planner for making decisions in the urban realm.
On the other hand, when looking at the future, urban planners tend to focus on forecasting tools, disregarding most foresight methods as frivolous exercises.
In fact, our literature review has detected not specific innovative research efforts geared to bridging the gap between these two fields of knowledge. 4. How to reconcile territorial foresight and urban planning Despite its apparent benefits,
territorial foresight is ignored either simply or just perceived as a trivial set of tools that do not provide much added value to the urban decision making processes.
In order to reconcile foresight techniques with urban planners, new contributions are needed to reinforce qualitative instruments with quality,
detailed outputs (visions or scenarios) that can be used as inputs for quantitative tools. With this aim in mind, an approach is presented hereby to link foresight tools and the urban planning process.
The proposed approach shows the way that a future urban vision can be VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 319 translated into practical, measurable strategies to guide territorial development in the long term.
This approach consists of five sequential steps (see Figure 2): 1. Formulation of future visions. Traditional foresight tools such as vision or scenario design are used to create a future vision of the territory and its broader socioeconomic context in a narrative format.
This first step should normally use qualitative tools that facilitate participation by stakeholders. 2. Determination of functional implications.
Once the visions are formulated, the functional implications for the territorial system are determined, which may display territorial elements,
socioeconomic flows and local stakeholders. This step should be undertaken with semi-qualitative analytical tools and should be restricted mostly to urban experts. 3. Determination of parametric implications.
its uniqueness emerges Figure 2 Linking foresight and urban planning PAGE 320 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 because all the elements are used in an articulated and coherent way, with a foresight exercise as a solid starting point.
These five steps are developed in the following sections. 4. 1 Step 1: formulating a future vision for sustainable development Once the proposed approach to link foresight tools to the urban planning process has been established,
a practical application is presented to assess its utility and feasibility. The chosen example is based on a scenario design exercise, in
Scenario design was chosen from among all the foresight tools because it provided an adequate management of the topic's complexity and uncertainty while at the same time unfolding alternative futures.
Scenario design is a foresight technique that has been used widely and documented (Godet, 1993; van der Heijden, 1996;
For most foresight practitioners, scenario development is the archetypal product of future studies because it is profoundly creative and capable of handling uncertainty.
The stated foresight exercise followed the conventional scenario design methodology made up of three sequential stages:
A perusal of the various websites specifically devoted to foresight studies (European foresight Platform, Forlearn Online Guide (n d.)and Millennium Project (n d.))shows that most scenarios exercises conclude with a description of the geopolitical, economic, societal and technological contexts.
Figure 10 Spatial implications of Scenario C (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 331 5. Applied approach to territorial foresight The proposed method to reconcile territorial
foresight with urban planning was developed over a five-year period. Due to the scarcity of research resources and the complexity of the topic, progress had to be attained through a slow, piecemeal effort in different research projects and academic activities.
1. Evidence about the oblivion of territorial foresight among Spanish planners was gathered as part of doctoral academic activity (Ferna'ndez Gu ell et al.
and their perceived barriers to the implementation of these studies. 2. Scenarios regarding social attitudes towards sustainable development were adopted from the foresight exercise carried out by Fundacio'n OPTI in 2007.
and focus groups. 3. The determination of functional implications as a means to strengthen scenario design was tested for the first time as part of a foresight exercise undertaken in Burgos city (Asociacio'n Plan Estrate'gico de Burgos,
The second set of findings shows the advisability of reinforcing foresight tools to make them more attractive and reliable for urban planners.
First, the foresight method appears to be user-friendly for regional and local decision makers and quite manageable for technicians.
Second, this foresight approach may be welcomed by both strategic and physical planners. On the one hand, it offers a comprehensive future vision of a territorial issue and its functional implications,
Therefore, a foresight method like the one proposed here should not lose its eminent qualitative nature. Fourth, this exercise elicits the potential for using foresight as a powerful tool for the dissemination of territorial knowledge and the establishment of expert networks,
which altogether can help to improve a territory's governance. In brief the present research lays the foundations for the integration of foresight methods with urban planning processes
in order to achieve a more sustainable development model. The complementary added value of both approaches can represent an innovative opportunity for policy makers
Therefore, foresight methods represent an emerging approach that works with few technical constraints and shows an increased adaptability to environmental changes.
the chances are that foresight will elicit less technical scepticism in the urban planning realm. References Asociacio'n Plan Estrate'gico de Burgos (2009),‘Estudio de prospectiva territorial para la Ciudad de Burgos, unpublished study'',Asociacio
European foresight Platform (2011),‘Foresight brief‘Knowledge sharing Platform'''available at: www. foresightplatform. eu (accessed 14 july 2011.
Foresight for Regional development Network (2001), Practical Guide to Regional foresight, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Sevilla.
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (2001),‘Special issue on foresight and regional development'',The IPTS Report No. 59, pp. 1-47.
Presently, he is a full-time Professor at the Urban and Regional planning Department of Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid and foresight advisor at Fundacio'n OPTI.
His professional and academic interests are focussed on strategic planning, territorial foresight and governance studies. He is the author of several articles and books related to strategic planning and foresight tools.
Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell is the corresponding author and can be contacted at: josemiguel. fernandez@upm. es Leticia Redondo is an Architect and Urban Planner at the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid.
focusing on the development of an innovative foresight approach to identify major trends and develop visions of alternative futures for a transition towards a more sustainable model.
failing to encompass the use of forecasting methods or foresight tools in the development of their studies.
It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight, forecasting and technology assessmentmethods and tools to the legal sphere.
Keywords Law, Future-oriented analysis, Foresight, Scenario planning, Modelling, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction Future and Law 1 are two words that are rarely found in the same phrase.
and risk, neglecting as a consequence the use of forecasting techniques, foresight methods and technology assessment procedures.
failing namely to encompass the use of forecasting methods or foresight tools in the development of their studies.
It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight
and in some cases shape technological futures 2. It was used first by the European commission's (EC) Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) as a common umbrella term for technology foresight
has provided a common place and platform where various communities dealing with different aspects of future envisioning (such as technology foresight,
As Johnston (2008) noted, the objective of the first of these seminars‘‘was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice between technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.''
as it allows experts in foresight to define their own visions of the future, creating their own narratives and visualisations of forthcoming developments.
back in 1933 and PAGE 342 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 in a BBC broadcast program, underlined the need for professors of foresight,
I believe that Law schools would very much enrich their programs by creating the post for Professors of Legal Foresight
what is known in foresight as the‘‘Zeitgeist Problem,''that is, ‘‘the tendency to be captive to the'spirit of times
The problem we here face is the one of having foresight used as a lobbying instrument
regardless of the claim that is sometime made for foresight that it is a neutral space for debate and consensus formation.
Foresight is a place where governments can and will try to stabilise, naturalise their roles, institutions jostle for positions,
the application of foresight methods and tools to Law should be as scientifically-sound as possible.
(and therefore enacted) due to the scientific foresight method employed, or on the contrary would the foresight method be legitimised because of its coupling with the enactment of a specific law?
Here we might encounter an interesting (and ultimately) dangerous mix between Law and Science, with the crafting of odd notions as‘‘science-based law''or‘‘legally-based science''!
For a clarification on the differences and similarities among the wide array of terms, methods and approaches that are included in the umbrella term of FTA, such as technology forecasting, technology assessment, roadmapping, technology foresight,
and foresight, see Rader and Porter (2008). For the distinction between technology assessment, foresight and technology forecasting made by the European Science
and Technology observatory Network (ESTO), see Rader (2001). The latter was revised, moreover in Rader (2001, p. 4);
surveys and foresight studies Delphi methodology and scenarios) that are adequate to conduct regulatory foresight, and which allow the identification of future fields for regulatory policy intervention.
The paper thus underlines that foresight methodologies can be applied for identifying and prioritizing the future areas of regulation. 6. These were the cases of the future-oriented technology assessment exercises conducted during the period 1974-1995 by the US Office of Technology assessment (OTA).
arguing that foresight has missed systematically important future developments due to its reliance on categorizations and measurement systems optimized for the Industrial Age models of production.
According to the author, foresight needs a paradigm shift in the Knowledge society, overcoming the epistemic models of FTA that inherently assume a world that evolves as an extrapolation of the past,
furthermore, explores the basic ontological and epistemological concepts that underlie foresight and FTA. 21. Peter De Smedt
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 349 References Barre',R. and Keenan, M. 2008),‘Revisiting foresight rationales:
France, Paris. Blind, K. 2006),‘Regulatory foresight: methodologies and selected applications'',paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
Miles, I. and Keenan, M. 2003),‘Two and a half cycles of foresight in the UK'',Technikfolgenabscha tzung Theorie und Praxis, Vol. 12, pp. 41-9. PAGE
Saritas, O. 2011),‘Systemic foresight methodology'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville.
Staton, M. 2008),‘Monstrous foresight'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis:
I. 2011),‘Foresight in an unpredictable world'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville.
C/Inca Garcilaso 3, 41092, Sevilla, Spain b Weber, AIT Austrian Institute of technology, Department of Foresight & Policy development, Donau-City-Straße 1, 1220
These unique conferences have brought together practitioners from three different communities of foresight, forecasting and technology assessment.
This approach is in line with a claim made by another keynote speaker, Richard Hames from the Asian Foresight Institute (AFI),
2006) 4), transformational narratives5 and Integral Foresight methodologies. The latter introduces Integral Philosophy into foresight, based on the argument that the answers required today cannot,
in principle, be found in what Slaughter (2008) calls‘problem-oriented'futures (i e. conventional thinking), and thus requires a new approach making use of integral ideas.
In order to navigate foresight in the sea of expectations, one needs both clear sight as well as a compass.
what it can offer for foresight. His paper investigates the phenomenon that socio-technical developments are saturated with formal and informal anticipations
and discusses the implications of this situation for foresight. The key features of foresight approaches are reviewed against the background of this observation,
as well as the main results of the sociology of expectations, which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology.
and discusses how these support or limit the ambitions of foresight. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 732 Editorial Should a firm match its foresight approach with the types of uncertainty it faces?
Vecchiato kicks off a set of four contributions on concrete cases of how FTA is used in addressing compleexit and uncertainty.
and use foresight practices and techniques for handling environmental uncertainty. He expands the understanding of environmental uncertainty by defining the concept of‘boundary uncertainty,
and explores their implications for strategic foresight. How do businesses develop successful continuity and become economically wealthy
AIT Austrian Institute of technology, Department of Foresight & Policy development, Donau-City-Straße 1, 1220 Vienna, Austria Totti Könnölä Impetu Solutions, Palacio de Miraflores
http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/FTA2011 CALL FINAL. pdf. Last accessed July 2012.2. A fourth religious/mythological perspective can add to bridging the gap between the systems analysis and the real world.
Three eras of technology foresight, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/FTA%202011
%20%205-9%20%20hl%20%20%20%20%20ppt%20%20copy. ppt. accessed 6 august 2012.
Three eras of technology foresight. Technovation 31, nos. 2 3: 69 76. Ollila, J. 2011. The innovation policy challenge, keynote speech.
Fourth international Seville conference on futureorieente technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/JO
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Foresight in an unpredictable world Ilkka Tuomi a a Meaning Processing Ltd.
Ilkka Tuomi (2012) Foresight in an unpredictable world, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 735-751, DOI:
8 september 2012,735 751 Foresight in an unpredictable world Ilkka Tuomi*Meaning Processing Ltd. Merenneidontie 24 D, 02320 Espoo, Finland Unpredictability has two main sources:
and foresight frequently fail to grasp socially and economically important technical developments and clariffie why policy strategy,
In this paper, the epistemic and ontological causes for this failure are described and their implications for foresight, innovation policy,
and failing foresight, which in competitive markets remains the only source of profits. 1 Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 737 Epistemic uncertainty Integrating the numerous extant typologies
of uncertainties proposed in the literature, Walker et al. 2003) distinguished two sources of uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty, according to these authors, is uncertainty due to the imperfection of our knowledge,
Ontological unpredictability thus becomes importaan for technology analysis, foresight, and strategy, as well as for characterising the limitations of evidence-based policy-making in innovation-intensive societies and economies.
'The same artefact Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 739 can be used for many different purposes in many different social practices, each with its own developmental trajectories.
stories of heroic innovators emerge telling howsms functionalitywas devised by clever engineers in the GSM standardisation groups in the mid-1980s.3 Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable
The stimulus of my action Is downloaded not just by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 743 the sight of the bear,
Ontological Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 745 Figure 2. Modelling in the context of the phenomenological veil. unpredictability,
Implications for foresight and future-oriented analysis What are the practical implications of the above conceptual analysis for foresight and futureorieente analysis?
Ontological expansion and foresight research The above discussed concepts of unpredictability and ontological expansion shed some new light on recent discussions on foresight research.
Here we touch only two issues: weak signals and scenario methodologies. In future-oriented research, the nature and implications of‘weak signals'have been debated actively during the last few years (Mendonça et al. 2004;
A potential approach to reduce such misplaced overconfidence is to explicate both the underlying Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 747 assumptions (Rossel 2009)
foresight efforts therefore could more appropriately be located around the problem of articulating natural systems, instead of formulating predictive models.
foresight requires an imaginative step that resembles the movement of a mountain climber towards the next hold.
For purely ontological reasoons foresight cannot be based on reactive models. Models inspired by physics, control theory,
Foresight efforts can probably best be organised using reflective learning and knowledge creation as their theoretical framework. If innovation is importaant we probably should give relatively little weight for trend extrapolations,
and we cannot define the meaning Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 749 of a word by adding up letters.
and other articles in the same special issue of foresight on anticipatory systems. Notes on contributor Ilkka Tuomi is Chief Scientist at Meaning Processing Ltd.
Foresight 12, no. 3: 18 29. Luhmann, N. 1990. Essays on self-reference. Newyork: Columbia University Press.
Foresight 13, no. 4: 7 23. Oudshoorn, N, . and T. J. Pinch. 2003. Introduction: How users and non-users matter.
Foresight 12, no. 3: 7 17. Raven, R. P. J. M, . and F. W. Geels. 2010.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 751 Rossel, P. 2009.
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