sense making and decision making as well as diffusion/acting on environment and interaction with other actors in real world. 1164 R. Koivisto et al./
In both technology and risk assessment this is made by changing mindsets, building trust among actors and developing better preparedness for the change,
In addition to performance analysis based on ex-post indicators the barometer includes the questionnaire of the views and visions of the future development by relevant national actors.
as well as a future-oriented survey exploring future visions of relevant national actors like industries, policy-makers and politicians, research community and future generations,
and second, to a technology barometer based on a survey study of the visions and attitudes of relevant national key actor and interest groups.
In principle, this concept could be applied in the study of different kinds of societal objects and objectives, related to national innovation system, regions, research programmes or societal actors, engaging private enterprises and public organizations.
but also the innovation system and the actors working in the fields. A bibliometric analysis provided further input in this process.
As many actors are involved and many disciplines may contribute, energy is a field that needs a symphony.
or if it is more about identifying actors, innovation policy measures or other issues. When this paper is written,
The information and topics gained in these processes may also be interesting for other actors in the innovation system.
Participatory scenario planning also helps mobilizing action by different public and private actors. In the longer run, it can trigger cultural change in the way institutions
but also actor constellation and related conflict constellations, differ with regard to the framing, design or implementation of policies.
and creating a common language and shared understanding between different actors 40. Users often value the opportunity to explore contentious issues outside of the usual parameters in a safe space.
Those networks of actors are seldom willing to accept changes in core aspects of relevant policies.
First, analysis can be conducted by actors within the public administration, or by external parties. Secondly, the organisational mandate of the actors responsible can be either permanent or temporary.
Thirdly, a sector-based or a cross-sector approach can be used. Examples can be found for all categories
On the other hand, the strategy unit in the Department for Agriculture in The netherlands is an example for an actor in charge of long-term sectoral analysis. A number of other procedural options can be utilized to strengthen the role of scenario planning.
and processes that vary between open and closed formats of interaction with many or few actors 12.
At present, during its early stages, a wide variety of actors are anticipating both on the potential benefits and risks of the development of nanotechnologies and their embedment into markets and into society.
Such an emerging reconfiguration of actor relations, their roles and responsibilities is particularly striking in nanotechnology in the diverse activities in
uncertain and involve multiple actors working at multiple levels shot through with anticipatory strategies and expectations on risks and benefits of the emerging technology field.
which take actors'initiatives and interactions into account. The latter is important because this form of scenario confronts participants in multi-stakeholder workshops with choices
Such scenarios should highlight both the multilevel/multi-actor dynamics and the unfolding innovation journeys of technology development have not been developed to date.
of actor activities (including anticipation in the form of agendas and strategies) and of enabling and constraining factors
Innovation actors will be responsive and may be asked by societal actors to account for what they do, and in this way responsible innovation is the responsibility of innovation actors,
in interaction with various societal actors. 2 This term was created by the author for the purposes of the project,
encompassing the notions of responsible development, responsible innovation and including the notion that this umbrella term covers research, product development and embedment.
Responsible (research &) innovation can be read in two ways: one with an emphasis on innovation, which requires some responsibility to be successful/acceptable,
but also by international and global actors. 4 To capture this non-linearity of innovation processes, the metaphor of the innovation journey has been used;
and by learning processes of actors about artefacts and actants. Elements include the convergence and coupling of emerging technical and organisational elements,
and parcel of the actor-network that carries the innovation as well as the broader landscape which overtime shifts.
actors anticipate on futures and these expectations influence their attempts to shape activities 21. Recent projects such as Socrobust 11 were an attempt at creating anticipatory management
which focus on actors'estimates about desired futures, also neglects these processes. In this section I use three building blocks to construct a framework for prospecting innovation:
and technological application whilst recent notions regard innovation as being nonlinear and recursive interactions between a variety of actors participating in the quest for innovation. 8. 5 These environments,
These configurations are entanglements (sometimes regular networks) of many actors, interacting based on regimes of activities.
and is part of a socio-technical network of actors, artifacts and infrastructures which evolve with the innovation.
This reads like actor-network theory (Callon et al on TEN) and so innovation itself is an outcome of alignment and configuration of actors, artifacts and infrastructures.
In line with Innovation chain+nomenclature one could call this Innovation+.+8 Still the focus of technology developers in their FTA ACTIVITIES, focus on paths (such as roadmapping) rather than journeys.
Another aspect of endogenous futures is linked with anticipation of actors. Expectations can give indications of directions
(and it is just a matter of actors deciding on what they want to work towards).
with the aim of bringing together actual and potential players involved in nanotechnology governance to share perspectives,
Actors such as governmental agencies, industry and NGOS were held increasingly accountable for addressing societal concerns, feeling pressures to incorporate ELSA and HES into their ongoing activities (similarly with corporate social responsibility).
Thus, at the time, there was something at stake for these actors and a willingness to participate in discussions
I position (in the IC+framework) the actors that were active at the time of the workshop
At the same time, researchers (for example in the Frontiers Noe) and other actors in and around the nano-world were becoming concerned about hype and bubbles bursting,
While actors will always take enabling and constraining factors in the situation into account, Constructive TA adds to this because of a broader & deeper understanding of socio-technical dynamics.
which not only take actors'initiatives and interactions into account but also the surrounding or ensuing dynamics and shifts in agendas that slowly become irreversible.
to enhance the reflexivity of actors regarding strategic decisions which can modulate these developments, and larger lock ins (irreversibilities)
and this actor learning is captured in the term complexity. This learning links up with the complexity of evolving (governance and other) environments.
We can see the importance of new actors in the shaping of emerging governance patterns and industry structure, of NGOS such as the ETC-Group,
There is an opening for consideration of soft law due to actors (firms in the main) anticipating (and thus proceeding with caution.
The other two scenarios focused on engagement and actor strategies, and on hype and mobilizing resources (promise requirement dynamics).
in general most public engagement activities initiated by R&d actors focused more on enlightening the general public on the potentials of nanotech R&d-engagement as a lubricant against public friction.
and case analysis to find expectations of various actor groups and entanglements between groups and particular elements of RRI.
and links them up with overall strategies in motivations for engagement around nanotechnology. 12 The scenario focused on the engagement aspects of RRI, the roles of various actor groups, the strategies and how the interactions played out.
Tensions in this scenario include the issues of timeliness of engagement when to incorporate actors? Early stage technologies are fragile
Again it describes actor strategies and the eventual entanglement of actors and the RRI elements to allow certain paths
and inhibit others. In this case a technology 12 Nanodiablog crosses all three motivations for engagement.
Nanodiablog provides a space for other actors to shape the context from instrumental to constructive criticism (whistle blowers have a space to proclaim
Innovation actor's quality not assured. Voluntary codes align best practice but have little effect on worst practice due to regime of patchwork of codes (so good become better,
The scenario in Box 4 will be shown in more detail in Section 5. 4. 2. The effect of these scenarios in the workshop The three scenarios together covered the various positions and expectations of those actors active in the debate around RRI.
The elements and actors were recognised by the participants with praise about the plausibility of such scenarios.
was the inclusion of all active actors in the scenarios. This meant that for certain actor strategies,
say a firm or ministry, they could refer to scenario elements and discuss around these, allowing an easier route to some of the key issues.
government actors attempt voluntary initiatives but there are tensions. This was the case at the time of writing w. r. t. the UK voluntary initiative.
Not all actors in R&d sign up to the codes, the broadness of principles causes concerns with some actors a large pharmaceutical company states,
RRI topics begin to fork as actors focus either on Speculative Ethics 41 and nearteer Health Safety and Environment issues.
Responsible actors, who have followed a particular code of conduct, flag their level responsibility by highlighting the following of codes as a sign of good governance Tension:
Innovation actor's quality not assured. Voluntary codes align best practice but have little effect on worst practice due to regime of patchwork of codes (so good become better,
6. Evaluation and discussion These co-evolutionary scenarios can prepare the ground for discussion of complex potential radical technologies via the combination of endogenous futures, the IC+framework and deep case research into actors
In this case they were used by participants as a resource for discussing the complexities of potential multi-actor multilevel de/re alignments and the effects on nanotechnology emergence.
the scenario introduces actors and their activities, responses and shifts that have a certain plausibility given
and provide both a place for exploring different actors'positions and strategies as well as providing key elements and aspects in context.
and so helps in identifying actors and their strategies. This aids the scenario creator, in my case I could place amidst the three scenarios some major stances and strategies of various actors,
and based on expectations analysis and the concept of emerging irreversibilities, show how actors interactions and reactions would co-evolve with the broader IC+landscape. 6. 1. A new member to the socio-technical scenario family
Co-evolutionary scenarios can be created and are productive as an input in Constructive TA type workshops.
So the scenarios provide a grip on complexity through actors pro-actively shaping chains and governance,
and certain entanglements of actors and their activities prevail in one direction or another. The co-evolutionary scenario approach is a contribution to the growing field of socio-technical scenarios 3. Other members of the family include regime transition scenarios14,
and actor-centric scenarios revealing the visions carried by various actors 34. Co-evolutionary scenarios make a modest,
The objective of encouraging other actors of the R&i system to initiate foresight activities has lead to many spinoof activities,
and studied the actors involved. The actors'understanding of strategy was included also in the analysis. Based on these analyses we argue that the impact of foresight exercises can be improved
if we have a better understanding of the traditions and new challenges faced by the research councils.
With its long-term perspective and its emphasis on connecting perspectives of different knowledge areas and different actors and stakeholders, foresight differs from corporate strategic planning,
Second, foresight exercises usually include actors in the priority discussion other than scientists. In some cases only industry representatives are included in the process
and suppliers of technology (i e. to influence the direction in which actors employ their resources);(
4) bringing new actors into the strategic debate; and (5) building new networks and linkages across fields, sectoor and markets,
or other societal actors also were included in Delphi surveys. Following foresight exercises in many countries during the 1990s, there now seems to be a new wave of research
this raises the question of what the various actors understand as strategy. Mintzberg and colleagues describe 10 schools of thought in strategy formation (Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, and Lampel 1998.
and each player hopes to achieve their goals as a result of the negotiations. It is obvious that such elements are present in foresight and strategy processes.
Stakeholders and decision-makers in charge of implementing the choices are the major players in these processes; foresight practitioners (process consultants or core groups) and formal processes play relatively minor roles.
Foresight methods preferred under this approach focus on key actors and their viewpoints, for example stakeholder analyses and Delphi studies.
The focus is less on priority-setting as a result of a foresight process and more on knowledge creation and knowledge sharing by the various actors during the process;
and Qualitative interviews with the actors involved. Interviewees were typically central council members, civil servants from relevant governmental entities, process and other external consultannts industry representatives and representatives of non-governmental organisations (NGOS;
The actors involved in developing the plan were primarily members of the research council and employees of the Research Agency.
A significant amount of the interactions of these actors, including the decisions on how to advance in the process,
such as the Natural science Research council, received broad input from many different actors during the process of strategy development.
In contrast, apart from the actors mentioned above the research council members, the agency employees, the PR company and the authors of the vision papers only a few other persons were involved directly in the development of the Strategy plan 2003 2007.
2) Discussion of the proposal with the actors in the area at a hearing meeting;(
the intention of the programme managers and the core group of the strategy activities to interact with key actors in energy research.
and members of the core group knew many of the actors in the area. There was a relatively strong network, both informal and formal, between the programme management and the established industrial and research actors in the field of energy technology.
Demands for research were incorporated into strategy planning primarily through the energy systems'actors and industrial actors,
Technical research Council Energy research programme Actors involved Programme management Research council Research Agency (secretariat) Energy Authority Core group in strategy processes Research council Research Agency (secretariat+strategy
and information functions) Energy Authority System operators (PSO actors) Consultants Other actors involved in the process Scientists Communication consultants Ministry of Science
Upward Government minister, parliamentary politicians Downward Programme Management system operators (PSO actors) Energy production companies Energy-technology companies Scientists Approaches Key scope Science
descriptions of areas of strategy effort Analysis of areas (present state and actor views) Hearings Roadmaps (as follow-up) Duration of the process 15 months Approximately 18 months Legitimization
Actor dialogues, partnershhip consensus seeking Advisory Council for Energy Research Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight
Table 2. Rationales for strategy functions as reflected in the interviews with actors involved in the strategy process.
especially with respect to elements such as the legitimacy of discussing long-term future perspectives and the inclusion of actors.
and public research actors (including the FNR) with a view to enhancing the latter's accountability and efficiency.
better informed through the involvement of a wider set of actors taking into account longer-term futures.
It is important to bear in mind that the FNR is not the only important actor in the formulation of FNR programmes.
the existence of one (or few) dominant actors influenced the process right from the outset (Thorsteinsdottir 2000.
no re-alignment of resources in money or kind by other actors is knownto the authors.
Furthermore, the FNR and the other public research actors benefited from a strong presence in the national media,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 950 F. Glod et al. 4. The use of the term‘in-house'can refer to actors beyond the officials of a ministry
'promising sectors and large players had been selected as being of particular public or strategic interest and were favoured
More recently, it has been recognised that the effectiveness of policy depends also on the involvement of a broader range of actors than those formally in charge of policy decisions.
Thus, a shared understanding of problems, goals and development options can be expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.
This converging understanding of the issues at play is likely to contribute to an improved coherence of the distributed decisions of these actors
This interest is fuelled by the recognition that there is a‘translation problem'appareen in foresight approaches that predominantly rely on broad participatory processes, namely the translation of shared collective problem perceptions and visions into actual decisions of individuua actors and organisations.
and options of individual actors to support their internal decision-making processes. 3) Policy facilitating by building a common awareness of current dynamics and future developmment as well as new networks and visions among stakeholders,
therefore to initiate a process of strategic dialogue, bringing the growing number of diverse actors together in an open and self-critical debate.
technology and innovation options among players, creating debate Awareness of the systemic character of change processes Foresight skills are developed in a wider circle Dialogues in new combinations of experts and stakeholders and a shared understanding
establishing longer-term perspectives Ultimate Integrating new able actors in the community that is shaping an area of concern Counselling Immediate Making hidden agendas
transparent and open participatory governance processes Ultimate Influence on (research policy) agendas of actors, both public and private (as revealed, for instance,
Many players coming from various units of the municipality, from universities and other research organisattions from the education sector,
'Each of the panels was chaired by a leading actor in urban RTI policy, coming either from a municipal department in charge of research agendas or from a public research funding agency in charge of research agendas,
It gave the key policy actors a clear and visible place in the process thus reducing the risk of counterproductive interference.
technology and innovation among different players that are primarily dealing with other issues. While still being distributed very much among different municipal departments,
which for the first time ever brought several of the actors, experts and stakeholders together who had interacted hardly with each other before.
and facilitating actors outside the local government, but hardly any specific action has been started firmly yet that would build explicitly on the strategy.
and other research and innovation actors is one of the issues on the future agenda, including the dialogue with the public.
as well as between local government and other research and innovation actors. 5. 3. Ultimate, long-term impacts Integrating suitable new actors in the community dealing with research and innovation is one of the key long-term impacts expected from foresight exercises.
In the Viennese case, the range of‘relevant actors'is limited rather and generally well known. Identifying‘new'actors is less the key point than integrating the known actors (e g. from neighbouring policy areas) into the debates about research and innovation.
First steps in this direction have been made that promise to be fruitful. Some longer-term impacts with respect to the counselling function of foresight can already be observed,
A second reason must be seen in the early involvement of key actors in researchaan innovation-related organisations of the City of Vienna.
Overall, the need to achieve consensus on immediate policy actions among the key local policy actors implied that several of the more controversial issues,
and relations between social actors relates to existing structures and could limit our openness to new insights.
and supplied with suggestions from other actors and where the politicians would like to be represented before the head of administration writes a proposal for visions and goals
and other actors'input too fantastic ideas will be erased! Visioning at the service of‘good'Practitioners
and of power. 7. The sociology of expectations is influenced by Science and Technology studies (STS) and Actor-Network-theory (ANT),
which collecctiv expectations are predefined by governmental actors who need to establish future visions firmly within the frame of existing governmental structures.
community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises. Futures 3: 45 65. Giddens, A. 1991.
and analysis. Design of QTIP tools and functions must address the diverse needs of all the players.
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1077 bprocess managementq factors should be considered for all types of QTIP players:!
8. A key principle is to maximize engagement and ongoing interaction of the QTIP players with each other.
(4) to bring new actors to R&i debates, or (5) to foster new networks (Georghiou and Keenan 2006).
characterised by numerous activities that have been initiated by several key actors of the R&i system (see, e g.
A focus area of competence was defined as a community of collaborating actors that (1) create
(i e. how strong a basis do Finnish actors have in the development and applicatiion of knowledge pertaining this focus area of competence?)
South korea and Canada and by the European commission. 8 One of the objectives of Finnsight was that it should encourage other actors of the R&i system to initiate foresight activities.
finding new applications in aligning actors around societal challenges (as described by Ko nno la et al.)
but also emphasises that this does not happen simply by bringing all the actors together. They map FTA METHODS in terms of the ways in
the funding and the strategic orientation of research and innovation have become a multilevel and multi-actor arrangement (e g. 21,22).
-the arena of programming in between the governmental and the research performing actors, deals with (1) translating the objectives of the former in specific scientific priorities
It can simply be considered that the actors of the programming arena have contributed to the tasks of the strategic orientation arena
but did not substitute the actors of this latter arena. 3. 2. Foresight objectives in the context of the three governance arenas We choose to focus our analysis on Foresight in connection with policy
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 235 objectives matrix (Table 2). In each cell of the matrix, the Foresights do not have the same actors involved, nor the same perspectives, nor the same objectives.
actors enter in a wide exploration, multiplying directions, and this divergence, as shown by recent biotechnology,
The European Technology platform for Nanoelectronics European Nanoelectronics Initiative Advisory Council (ENIAC) was launched in 2004 with the mission to bring together all leading players in the field
Biotechnology and nanotechnology topics are continuing players in the abstract sets. Synthetic biology the prospect of engineering cellular processes to operate as bioreactors, labs in a cell,
when the players have sufficient experience to know what kind and what level of discussion
and potential implications. 4. The players Because the scanning process profits from a wide variety of perspectives in the abstract-collection process and the Scan meeting,
''and reflects the aims of many exercises to promote networking between actors in research and innovation.
in Section 3 we catalogue the emergence of structural foresight and in Section 4 its growing role as an instrument for aligning actors in innovation.
Another kind of structural foresight has an actor-focus. For example this was an explicit objective of an EU project
''A number of foresight exercises have addressed actors. Universities have been a particular focus. A review for the 2006 FTA conference noted an increasing use of scenarios for the sector in the face of a number of pressures
Havas has argued that the actor-based approach is only meaningful if it is embedded in an understanding of the research systems in
Foresight aligning actors in innovation policy Structural issues are also to the fore in an emerging important application of foresight
its use to align actors around innovation objectives. Simpler definitions of innovation present it as‘‘the successful exploitation of new ideas''.
and that a broader set of actors, including social scientists, need to be brought into the range of engaged stakeholders
Here the aimwas tomobilise actors and networks by reference to the research focus of their activities rather than to the location inwhich these activities are carried out.
J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 248 actors which are important for innovation.
Building views of the Nordic potentials in ICT development among key actors. Action proposals and policy recommendations.
An action plan for the Nordic key actors without a direct link to any decision process.
in order to be able to give action recommendations for the Nordic key actors. Still, a variety of views and opinions were considered
business actors and researchers from all EU Member States responded to the on-line Delphi study. In addition, more than 600 stakeholders in a various EU Member States were addressed in a series of national seminars.
Furthermore, the outputs are reused often''by actors not considered in the design phase. This systemic nature of foresight may have several ramifications
some actors have more access to sources of information and information-processing capabilities, and to the levers of power and capacities to commandandcontrol others.
and even the bestinfoorme and most powerful actors have to work with others to a limited extent in totalitarian regimes, to a huge extent in liberal democracies.)
Since these decisions and actions involve many actors, there is often need for concerted action, and shared visions of what futures to seek
Having key actors, or influential members from key organisations, engaged in the FTA PROCESS means that they can develop a much deeper understanding of the process itself,
The deeper understandingmeans that when contingencies change as they almost certainly will the participant will be able to assess their implications for the FTA conclusions and for the orientations of other actors.
The senior actorswill thus be primed to receive the detailed knowledge that is gained by the more junior actors.
Individual actors in FTA organise information in ways that are relevant to their purposes practical problems, conceptual challenges,()TD$FIG Knowledge Information Knowledge Socialisation:
to understanding and guiding the shared knowledge creation of key actors (industry, academia and policymakers) in the context of Nordic foresight activities 21,22.
When the FTA PROCESS involves a wide range of key actors in the case of the Nordic H2 energy foresight coming from several countries there are special challenges confronted in shared knowledge creation (even in agreeing upon which of Bell's‘‘posits''to explore
Experts (engineers, designers, social analysts, political actors) are seen as possessing particularly valued-and sometimes privileged knowledge.
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