The analysis focuses on the formal and informal actors involved in decision making and in implementing them as well as the formal,
7. 1. FTA for public decision making Actors affected by innovation processes ought to be involved more in technological development,
what kinds of governance is needed to permit actors external to the innovation processes to become more actively involved in technological development,
FTA can fulfil its role of supporting actors in society in shaping a common future based on a shared vision among all concerned.
and complex factors involving diverse actors that lead and cause societal change. What is often apparent is that most stakeholders are relatively powerless alone to affect the direction
What is interesting about trends is that normally most players, organizations or even nations cannot do much to change them they are larger than the power of individual organizations
familiar bases for economic value, international conflict and innovations may be shifting resulting in loss of control by the old guard actors;
Findings FTA APPROACHES create spaces where an effective dialogue between key players in different policy domains facilitates vision-building
Furthermore, FTA APPROACHES create spaces where an effective dialogue between key players in different policy domains facilitates vision-building
multidisciplinary coordination but also on a strong action orientation by supporting actors in actively shaping the future.
In the meantime, it can be observed that more qualitative and discursive methods are stipulated by actors in the process or proposed by the project leaders.
since many policy interventions (and the actors responsible for them) are confronted regularly with unforeseen adverse some authors even call them perverse effects. 2. The issue of uncertainties
what actions and which actors play key roles After this round the preliminary versions of the result of the scenario process,
indirectly (by means of the involved actors), seeks to influence the technological development at stake. By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment
For example, there is a visible increase in the number of linkages between the heterogeneous actors together in search of defining the newly emerging field or technology.
As nanotechnology is intended the partly, partly unintended outcome of the moves of many actors in industry, research and policy,
enable and constrain actors in a sense that actors experience more or less resistance for different options they try to explore
Emerging irreversibilities make it more difficult (or less easy) for actors to do something else (or easier to do something.
the stakes and the expectations are high for various actors. At the same time, the situation is very fluid,
unpredictable and no actor has clear knowledge what the technology will bring. Research institutes study a broad variety of scientific subjects
and actors will experience less available choices due to diminishing variety and decisions taken earlier 6. These emerging irreversibilities reduce the complexity of the situation 7. How do emerging irreversibilities affect the actors operating in the field?
An irreversibility is something that cannot be undone easily, and when actors try to achieve something that go against the irreversibility,
they become aware that it is impossible, or at least requires a lot of effort. Therefore, emerging irreversibilities are constraining.
On the other hand, when actors try to achieve things in line with the irreversibility, the actor can rely on some predictability to improve the chances of his strategy,
and this refers to the enabling character of emerging irreversibilities. The emerging irreversibility can be weak or strong,
when an actor has the intention to test the irreversibility, i e. tries actions or interactions that go against it.
or weaken the irreversibility depending on the outcome of the behaviour of the actor. In addition, irreversibilities often emerge behind the backs of the actors,
i e. without awareness of the actors. For instance, the growing attention for a certain subject is an indicator for an emerging irreversibility.
Fig. 1 shows the growing attention in journals for a certain topic and indicates that the term dnanotubest was used increasingly in the titles of scientific articles (extracted from the Picarta database.
The fact that these roadmaps are made is an indication that actors involved in this process link up to reach a common goal.
thus, functions as a device to keep the actors together. To deviate from it can only be done with increasing costs and effort,
Since all involved actors scientists, firms, policy makers have to act under the condition of insufficient information,
Expectations shape the mindsets of the various actors, while, in their turn, expectations will be shaped and reshaped by research results, findings in other technical fields,
Expectations are translated into the agendas of the different actors, upon which they act. The agendas give rise to activities and different outcomes (e g.,
one could focus on emerging networks of actors and artefacts: the preferred entrance point of actor network theory 6, 11.
Then, the analyst would trace the emerging concentrations in actor-networks (e g.,, firm cooperation, joint research efforts),
as indicators of emerging irreversibilities. R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1097 technological field, with its dedicated journals, conferences and communities.
NGO's and other societal actors articulate the social, political and economic aspects of the new technological field.
they feed expectations by various actors in society (e g.,, the public, politicians, firms. On the 5 1 nm is approx. 1/80,000 of the thickness of a human hair
This type of memory can be used in a wide variety of electronic devices (PCS, digital cameras, MP3 players, etc..
and the collaboration with ASML indicate the emerging irreversibility that Nantero has become a central player in the realisation of highly integrated nonvolatile memories.
This fact changed the market side in the sense that a robust player emerged within this industry.
used in nonvolatile memories Nantero as a surviving central player in realising nanotube applications in nonvolatile memories Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Possibilities where opened up by scientific research results that took away hurdles in using nanotubes for electronic devices
co-construction by all possibly relevant actors is not straightforward. Therefore, we suggested in this paper that a focus on expectations
indirectly aims at influencing the technology in development via the involved actors. We think the tracing of emerging irreversibilities is an important next step in the development of TA,
which the perspectives and actions of multiple heterogeneous actors are involved. Understanding the dynamics from the different perspectives gives insight in the different points of view of the actors involved in the CTA study. 16 Finally,
we note that the emerging character of nanotechnology provides research opportunities for innovation and technology studies.
which supports the actors to formulate their views on the future. These views are directly related to the social perspectives on the new technology.
As the set of involved actors is developed heterogeneous, the scenarios will differ in outlook and consequences.
and dynamics, looking at constitutional, institutional and administrative law (public actors and relationships with the public administration);
private law (private actors and horizontal relationships; and criminal law (public power and punishment. Moreover, the project planned to study all of these legal dimensions at national
In other words, through serious multi-player online games, we will be able to explore possible futures not only different designs of shopping malls, airports,
where a myriad of different actors and institutions try to orient specific laws according to their own different (and sometimes opposite) motivations, objectives and goals.
and actors involved in areas and activities as diverse as legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement. 2. For a historical review of the development of Future-oriented technology analysis, see Johnston (2008).
Private law/private actors/horizontal relationships; and Criminal law/public power and punishment. The organizers of the programme underlined that those tracks were not to be conceptualized as doctrinally‘‘closed''compartments.
the role of governments or politics as important players in the innovation process has changed. First there is a significant shift away from a direct governmental participation in the innovation process towards a concentration of national governments on the shaping of framework conditions for innovation.
creating spaces for an effective dialogue between key players in different policy domains; vision-building and consensus-building for engineering major processes of transformation;
which translates the strategic orientation of governmental actors into research and innovation priorities. The arena includes research funding and related agencies and mediates between the governmental actors and the research actors.
Schoen et al. 2011) also link these arenas to the various objectives and present the following comprehensive overview (Table 2). Foresight is exercised also in firms,
and technological developments actors continuously and explicitly refer to what is possible in the future: they draw from
Actors will choose some of these tasks, assuming that other tasks will be enacted by others. This mutual positioning again may be reinforced by foresight reports that stipulate actions and agendas.
because they are connected to more actors, more data Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 776 H. van Lente and more developments (Konrad 2006.
(which includes many choice moments) with more actors, more perspectives and, in general, more reflection (Schot and Rip 1996;
The interaction of collective and actor-specific expectations on electronic commerce and interactive television. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 429 44.
and customer needs in a timely manner and at figuring out their implicattion for the activities of the value chain and the rise of new players.
'it is the difficulty to figure out who the main players and what the main activities of the value chain will be.
What the player does not know is which cards he/she will be dealt and what cards will be put on the table (i e. state, effect,
Internet services such as video on demand) and the rise of completely newkinds of players (e g.
operating in the consumer electronic business in the 2000s could be compared to the case of a player who still has to learn both the rules of the game
which surrounds the industry. 7 The second category is‘discontinuous'drivers of change that bring about boundary uncertainty, by leading to completely new kinds of products, players,
and the new players who are entering the business. Only after that boundary uncertainty has been solved
In this paper, a new concept of networked sustainability (Cagnin 2005) is introduced as an evolution of the value Net value is redefined to be a triple-bottom-line balance of the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within a business's network:
with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 799 represented by a triple-bottom-line balance or the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within the network.
which actors in the network participate in defining common vision and strategy. The important questions are as follows:
The heart of a network becomes interaction alignment and integration of all operatiion and their supporting activities across products and services among all its actors.
and mutual understanding among the actors involved to enable the whole network to pursue the same vision of sustainable development.
to be pursued by all actors involved in the system. Moreover, it should link the activities that need to be performed at each stage to build an organisation's ability to know itself (how things are done in the present),
requiring a common identity (a true feeling of who‘we'are as partners as well as of who each actor is as individuals)
It also considers where all actors see themselves both individually and collectively within these alternative futures.
such a common vision to be pursued across the system should be based upon the mutual positioning of network actors in relation to future needs (Cagnin, Amanatidou, and Keenan 2012.
Cagnin 2005) between actors need to be reinforced to allow the coordination and mobilisation of necessary skills and resources towards a common target, aligning therefore strategy and operations across the system.
Management system FTA roles Decide to be in business FTA supports mutual learning and shared understanding of network actors'views and feelings as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes, all of
achievement of common ground, shared perspectives, dynamic multilateral partnerships, trust and adaptation as actors interact, new ideas emerge and existing
and new configurations Sustain the business FTA enables the network to continue to exist in the long run by enabling it to behave as a complex living system as actors interact
founded on a shared vision for sustainable development to be pursued by all actors, with interdependent and agreed roles;
but also enable all actors within such networks to progress towards higher levels of sustainable development. What one part does to another is interpreted indefinitely
the interactions among all the actors within networks characterise the existence of such a system or the network itself.
These might be the necessary characteristics to enable actors within business networks to perform at higher levels
enabling actors to anticipate and manage disruptive and transformative changes. The kind of dialogue supported throughftaprovides a newparadigm able to deal with unpredictability
Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises. Paper prepared for the STRATA ETAN Expert Group action on Mobilising the Regional foresight Potential for an Enlarged European union.
by interactions of multiple actors and trajectories working in different temporal dimensions. These dimensions could be, for example, linear, visionary or disruptive.
'Second, the roadmapping process enables the engagement of the key actors in an organisation. Thus, it builds on a variety of organisational knowledge spaces
Furthermore, modularisation enables the tailoring of the roadmapping process to suit the needs of the different actors
the actors have different interpretations of the present in relation to the past and the future but the present is the only temporal position where interpretations can be turned into actions.
The second is the social/actor space, which covers all the issues that are primarily dependent on relations between different social actors inside and outside the organisation.
This space covers organisational development markets, and also more Figure 3. An ideal model of the knowledge spaces in an RTO.
and solutions Social/actor Covers issues that are primarily dependent on relations between different actors inside
and outside the organisation Capacities for aligning development activities with societal drivers Building a market vision Capacities for market creation or entering into existing markets as a novel player Identification of novel
market features and actors Articulation of demand Identifying societal and market drivers Strategy Strategic and holistic view of the research objects Strategic capacity of the organisation and/or entity Holistic roadmaps to be used in long-term strategic planning Technology space
and social/actor space are linked to a strategic perspective of the future, i e. a strong target Building strategic
and the social/actor space are mainly heuristic, because technologiie are formed in social interaction, and markets are created by socio-technical relationships.
useful because it enables the organisation to set specific targets both for technologies as solutions and organisational actors as realisers of these solutions.
and the social/actor space are combined in a distinctive strategic perspective. The fourth knowledge space is the visionary space.
Our model starts with a presupposition that in the technology and social/actor spaces the exploration of the more radical futures is restricted usually by the overaal need to identify certain actions in the present.
policy perspective Innovation policy roadmapping Roadmap for developing synthesising policy perspectives for public actors Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces depends on the specific aims of the process Forming policy conclusions on the basis of the roadmapping Downloaded by University of Bucharest
It is constructed to produce synthesising policy perspectives for public actors. The aim is to form policy conclusions on the basis of roadmapping.
technology and social/actor space, R&d I scope Our first example is a roadmapping process that is aimed to renew a line of organisational compettenc that is already rather well established at VTT.
and actors in the sector of building services. The third workshop focussed on and verified the constructed roadmap drafts.
I type of technology roadmap that is aimed to contribute to the technology space and the social/actor space.
The project also operated in the social/actor space. It underlined, first, markets for the adoption of novel solutions,
e g. advanced materials Several novel single technology elements were embedded in the roadmaps Social/actor Exercise covered social/actor space from the selected perspectives Capacities for linking of knowledge internally, e g. construction and ICT
trajectories and also by tracking disruptive alternatives Markets for adoption of novel solutions, e g. integrated ICT Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in the renewal of building services markets,
and construction Novel market features and actors were identified, e g. integrated service provider Markets for new services and service providers in the field Built capacities for the construction of new integrated market players and clarified the role of VTT in relation to these new
players Articulated demand opportunities especially in the advanced building service solutions Identified societal and market drivers,
e g. customised housing and indoor services Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 832 T. Ahlqvist et al. services and service providers.
In the social/actor space, the project aimed primarily to form capacities for linking knowledge internally atvtt, by combining construction expertise with ICT expertise.
The project endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in the renewal of building services markets.
It also enhanced capacity building for newintegrated market players and clarified the role of VTT in relation to these new players.
for example, the identification of novel market features and actors, articulating demand opportunities in advanced building service solutions,
strategy space and social/actor space, RD II scope Our second example applies roadmapping in the context of an organisational development process aimed at establishing a service research network at VTT.
potential collaborators such as universities, funding agencies and the societal actors in the field of service science (Halonen, Kallio, and Saari 2010.
and systemic capacities The SSB roadmap can be perceived as an R&d II type of technology roadmap that aims to contribute to the strategy space and the social/actor space.
The SSB network also contributed to the social/actor space. It identified the most important players in the field of service research internally and externally
and attempted to define markets Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
It also endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research in Finland and in Europe.
and vision for the future Social/actor Identification of most important players in the field of service research internally and externally Capacities and methods for linking and sharing existing knowledge internally,
opportunities and challenges Markets for new services and service providers in the field Capacities and methods for creating new knowledge in the network Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research both in Finland and Europe
the key ideas accentuated the need to build a new kind of serviceorieente operation culture in a field that is considered quite conservative by the actors.
In the final research phase, the action workshop, a set of actions to be taken by the key players in the Nordic countries was depicted.
and the construction machinery roadmapwas about finding newbusiness directions in the network of actors in the field.
aimed to empower actors and, through this, to establish and strengthen VTT's organisational identity as a novel‘player'in service science.
Thus, it fostered the formation of an anticipatory culture, through empowering an anticipatory agency among the in-house professionals.
all the cases dealt with topics that are likely to spur different interpretations among the actors and stakeholders.
On the basis of the cases, it can be assessed that roadmapping is most applicable to processes aimed either at the technology space, the social/actor space,
These include innovation system modelling, text mining of Science, Technology & Innovation(‘ST&I')information resources, trend analyses, actor analyses,
sharing progress on our efforts to devise algorithms to help extract key technology components, significant actors, and potential applications.*
TDS models can serve to identify the key institutional actors, spelling out enterprise requirements, and spotlighting leverage points to affect the prospects of successful commercialisation.
and profile that activity and the associated actors from these data (Steps C and D). Many analytical tools can serve to profile R&d,
then, lead to the identification of additional (or different) key players in the TDS. Stage 3 brings expertise to bear on the system depiction (Stage 1) and empirical results from Stage 2. Step F digests prior results to present those to participating experts
and take it to market and (2) the key contextual factors (actors, trends, and events) affecting the success of that innovation process.
targeted at the USA we chose this national focus to focus on a set of key actors.
Key reviewarticles helped us to understand the important componeent and players in this‘delivery system'.'Engagement of our collaborating solar cell researchers helped distinguish the more important elements.
and those discussed in the business-oriented literature identifies possibly important actors in the DSSC arena.
4. 3. Profile innovation actors and activities (Step D) Since 2009, WOS has been providing a funding acknowledgement field as it indexes publications.
the multi-institute CAS has also been a dominant player. Since 2009, EPFL has published 21 papers that have received already 10
and AIST, only 4. Examination of the research emphases of such leading players can provide intelligence on where the field is heading.
We especially attended to industrial players, identifying the leading organisations active in each of the different data sources.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 853 Once such highly active players have been identified,
Such details can enrich cross-charting procedures to elucidate which key players (countries and institutions) currently pursue which priorities.
which are expected to be the main players for addressing global or national challenges through innovation in the future.
1. central player in the scientific and technological arena; 2. sustainable growth through green innovation; 3. successful model for healthy-aging society;
2006) with relevance to strategic dialogues Model/framework Relevance to strategic dialogues Rational actor paradigm (RAP) The RAP assumes that all individuals maximize their personal benefit without communication with,
a holistic view across a complex landscape of relevant stakeholders, including relevant disciplines as well as players across the value chain is required.
and can facilitate the interplay of actors in research as well as research policy. Through our work we have come to the conclusion that a carefully designed transfer of foresight results into research policy making would be beneficial in a wide range of situations, not just in Germany but also within the EU and internationally.
and reputation as‘‘a player''and good partner in global politics and trade in uncertain times?
The Lund Declaration and other initiatives have provided high-level impetus for actors in the research and innovation system to take stock of the way in which they develop
The natural resources sector includes numerous players (federal and regional government agencies, public and private companies and industrial enterprises, R&d centres, environment protection organisations,
and the large number of players, imply the need to use integrated approaches for identifying S&t and innovation priorities for this sector.
Creating spaces for dialogue between key players from different domains, with diverging views and experiences. Vision-building and consensus-building for considering
and thusmobilise actors to take actions in order to realise the joint visions (or at least take steps in that direction).
or even impossible to solve by single actors. Grand challenges 381 C. Cagnin et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 are by nature complex and largely impervious to top-down rational planning approaches.
ii) align actors around the challenge;(iii) discuss expected and unexpected consequences of challenges; and (iv) anticipate
and stresses the need of an organisational structure that includes a variety of actors and perspectives from the outset of an endeavour in order to properly foster nanotechnology by establishing governance structures able to coordinate interactions of relevant actors.
Schirrmeister and Warnke 14 contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations by proposing an original methodological approach that combines four specific features:
and to promote co-operation between various actors. In Germany, FTA was used mainly to shape
In both countries, public policy activities to foster nanotechnology were accompanied by efforts to establish governance structures to coordinate interactions between actors of the innovation system.
implies the need for an organisational structure that includes a variety of actors and perspectives from the outset.
Results indicate that a wide variety of hybrid value creation models with novel configurations of innovation actors emerged.
The implication for foresight methods is that network analysis can introduce a‘systemic'perspective emphasising relationships between actors,
The appraisal of the expected future performance (and the ranking) of alternative technological options therefore explicitly incorporates information that inherently reflects the subjectivity of social players,
and prepare various actors for it. In this context, combining methodological approaches creates opportunities to complement the weaknesses inherent to the use of one single approach with strengths of other approaches.
a multi-actor, multi-objective method, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 76 (2009) 1037 1050.29 N. Agami, M. Saleh, H. El-Shishiny, A fuzzy logic based trend impact analysis method, Technol.
by an individual or group of actors, and‘policy-making'for the act or process of designing policies by those in charge of designing (public policy.
Another important challenge inmany FTA projects is supporting amulti-actor process. Different perspectives, differentworldviews or different mental models of various stakeholders are usually the norm in FTA projects
and may result in situations where the results of FTA projects are contested by one ormore of the actors involved in the process
if the diversity of views and/or actors is cared not properly for. Here, EMA can be of use,
the actor-options framework for modelling socio-technical systems, in: Policy analysis, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2010.6 P. Eykhoff, System Identification:
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011