draws conclusions and makes suggestions for future research. 2. Literature review and the configuration of the innovation systems The conception of the configuration of the three innovattio systems is established on the theoretical foundations of different system approaches.
The question should be analyzed further in future research. Acknowledgements The author particularly wishes to thank Prof.
Ding, Y.-X. 2001)‘ The history, current condition and future of pharmaceutical industry('.'In: Zheng, S.-J. ed.)The History of Pharmacology in Taiwan(),pp. 227 32.
A review of the past and projectiio for the future',Forum for Agricultural Innovation and Development Council of Agriculture, 26 nov 2004, pp. 15 21.
technology and innovation (STI) systems might be reoriented to better address several grand challenges that affect not only contemporary societies but also the future of human civilisation itself.
and adapt to the future and thus address common challennges and to spread democracy and transparency at the global level.
These are oriented future processes that offer policy -and decision-makers the potential to look across (disruptive) transformations
They can also assist in managing the uncertainty associated with innovation activities and with the future more broadly by providing spaces for policy,
business and societal actors to come together to better appreciate their mutual positions vis-a vis future innovation directions. From a policy arena perspective, this coordination potentiia can enhance communication and understanding 144.
and process signals of future change. In this way FTA PROCESSES can enable governments and other actors to become more adaptive and capable of enacting systemic change.
and understanding future solutions that run counter to mainstream practices. This can be a first step in trying to overcome certain lock ins and path-dependencies along specific socio-technical trajectories.
and investment priorities for public policies Evaluate existing strategies against potential futures, and devise future-proof strategies Develop reference material for policy-makers
and other actors to use, broadening the knowledge base around which decisions are made, thereby resulting in better informed public policies
and analyse weak signals to‘foresee'likely future changes and to gain insights into complex interactions and emerging drivers of change Identify New s&t,
and dynamic multilateral partnerships Develop widely shared visions of the future with which actors can identify
and practice for thinking about the future something that is often termed a‘foresight culture'Enhance the standing
In the same vein, three PPPS were established under the European Economic Recovery Plan to help industries that were hit severely by the economic recession (Factories of the Future, Energy efficient Buildings and Green Cars.
The identification of grand challenges and the corresponding priorities for research and innovation through the use of forward-looking activities is mentioned explicitly in the Council's conclusions (December 2009) 7 on guidance on future priorities for European research.
for example, provide insights into longer-term developments, scope and opportunities for shaping futures, and mutual positioning of other innovation system actors vis-a vis the future.
In addition to these, FTA PROCESSES can encourage multi-disciplinarity in research needed when exploring the nature and impacts of grand challenges as well as their possible solutions Informing role of FTA can be embedded within EU instruments in the steps of challenge/problem identificatiion prioritisation of associated themes and areas for research,
and debate possible and desirable futures. In this way, FTA provides forums for knowledge to be exchanged and created.
of visions and expectations that guide actors in their search and selection of future opportunities.
and join forces for designing common desirable futures Orienting European innovation systems. 149 contributions these would make to various innovation system functions. 7. Conclusions This paper has outlined the contours of an emerging mission-led approach to innovation policy that is more global
or launched new initiativves such as the Lund Declaration11 that shall be the basis for designing the EU's future policies for research and innovation.
nanoelectronics (ENIAC) and fuel cells and hydrogen (FCH) as well as the Future Internet Initiative. 6. See<http://cordis. europa. eu/fp7/jtis/about-jti en. html>accessed 19 dec 2011.7.
Council of the European union, Guidance on future priorities for European research and research-based innovation in post-2010 Lisbon strategy, Council conclussions Brussels, 8 december 2009.8.
Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegeman, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
New approaches to governance',Futures, 43: 279 91. CEC. 2010)‘ Communication from the Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social, Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union',SEC (2010) 1161
Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises',Futures, 36:46 65. Hall, B. H. and Rosenberg, N. 2010) Handbook of the Economics of Innovation.
The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations.
and their effectiveness in tackling a range of futures and related needs. A typology of future requirements to be addressed by FTA,
including exploration of the future and preparednees for the unknown, will be developed. Drawing on recent experiences with alternative models of FTA systems, solutions will be identified based on a combinattio of social
organisational and technological innovations at the three levels of FTA systems, to make FTA fit for the challenges of the future.
Against this conceptual background the four guiding questions addressed in the subsequent sections are:.What areas and types of transformations will require anticipatory action?
What do these findings suggest with regard to the future direction to take for organising FTA ACTIVITIES? The structure of the remainder of this paper is as follows:
Section 2 addresses the first two questions, including also the future conceptual requirements for FTA systems that are likely to emerge,
The analysis will clarify the potential of different institutional models for tackling different types of future requirements.
There is an emerging stream of FTA ACTIVITY geared to providing future-oriented knowledge for decision-making on a more continuous Figure 2. Modes of governance (modified from Thompson et al. 1990.
but also possible disruptive events or developments that may radicalll influence the future. This trend reflects growing attentiio to uncertainties and complexities,
This is crucial if they are to be able to point to future risks and potential disruptions that are not yet at the top of the current policy agendas. 2. 3. 3 FTA networks.
Joint visions and action plans prepare for common futures. Networked FTA Competition mode of governance. Optimising the market conditions.
and understand highly complex and often uncertaai future developments by way of addressing, in the same exercise, alternative forms of transformation and the conseqquen roles of different stakeholders.
whereas a number of other methods are applied to develop future plans and action-oriented recommendations for decision-making.
or foresight activities tailored to exploring the future in the context of science, technology and innovation (STI) policies and achieving impact on national innovation systems (NIS).
or suggestiin future fields in a specific phase of re-orientation of policy, whereas institutionalised forms of FTA are more suitable under unstable political conditions and in situatiion with a high level of fluctuation.
In particular Warnke (2011) recommends the use of strategic dialogues to foster the embedding of suggested‘future fields'into the national research, technology and innovation (RTI) landscaape Ahlqvist et al.
‘intelligent piggybacking'approach is much more suitable for smaller catching-up economies than the traditional‘grand narratives'approach typically employed in larger advanced economies to define future developments at the cutting edge of a given field of technology.
but also to shape the future, building upon mutual understanding and common visions which are to be pursued jointly.
systemic and structural transformation of organisations'premises and practices, with the ultimate goal of handling current and future technological, economic and societal challenges in line with the goals defined by the organisation.
In the case of parliamentary TA, the argument in favour of dedicated future intelligence can be made in a very straightforward manner.
In general, parliamentarians need better access to knowledge about current and future developments in technology and society.
Future intelligence units were expected increasingly to provide forward-looking knowledge for operational and R&d units rather than fulfilling an exploratory think-tank function for top-level management,
Organisations are facing major problems in identiffyin future challenges and providing solutions on time. A faster and continuous analysis and translation into actions of future challenges and opportunities is needed
thus. This is particularly obvious when the focus extends beyond the challenges that societies face today
and seeks to anticipate future challenges and transform them into opportunities. The need to deal with global issues implies a corresponding institutional capacity
to anticipate future challenges and transform them into opportunities. This heralds a new generation of FTA systems, reflecting a stronger emphasis on flexibility,
The question that arises from these observations on the possible future evolution of FTA is whether or not these types of developments will be sufficient to cope with the challenges of transformative and disruptive changes.
Multiple factors influence the ways in which the future will evolve, and existing institutions have not yet been able to develop a fully systemic view of current
and possible future situations to be prepared for properly shaping the future. Identifying weak signals and developiin scenarios are crucial tools in preparing for the unexpeccted
and to translate these into common visions of the future of the world which can be pursued jointly.
exploring alternative futures and shaping the direction to follow, coupled with an evaluation of what has or has not been achieved from time to time to correct deviattion
and monitoriin in order to ensure that FTA systems can address fast-changing requirements of the future.
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Nordmann, A. 2004)‘ Converging technologies Shaping the future of European societies',Report of an Expert Group to the European commission.
Rijkens-Klomp, N. and van der Duin, P. 2012) Evaluating local and national public foresight studies from a user perspecctive Futures (forthcoming.
and the uncertainties involved in future global governance regimes. Foresight offers a means to explore these dimensions of science.
but need to gain a good appreciation of possible future developments, particularly given the uncertainties around the dynamics and impacts of grand challenges.
This paper sets out to describe the conduct of the ICSU foresight exercise with a view to identifying lessons for future foresight exercises carried out in international arenas.
and the present of international science cooperation Before thinking about the futures of international science cooperation,
it commissioned a meta-analysis of the results of several existing national foresight exercises with the aim of identifying future priority areas for international science cooperation (Teixera et al. 2002.
the new exercise set out to focus on the exploration of possible futures of international science cooperation and the roles ICSU might play.
a scenario approach that captures multiple futures was embraced. The exercise was led by ICSU's Committee on Scientific Planning
allowing for exploration of possible futures and for articulation of a visionary‘success scenario'..'Scope: While the exercise was intended to increase ICSU's organisational agility
together with an exploration of possible future developments that might offer opportunities or threats to ICSU.
The scope of the exercise therefore oscillated between the narrower scope of ICSU's future organisational positioning and the future transformation of international science cooperation..
In order to create a desirable vision of the future that is somewhat grounded, it is first important to explore the so-called future‘possibility space'.
'Acknowledging this highlighted the need for a multi-phase exercise, where the key drivers of change Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.
or so to explore, in a structured way, future key drivers of change. On top of this, several dedicated activities were organised,
importance of the driver in shaping future developmeent over the next 20 years in international science. uncertainty around the direction and dynamics of the driver over the next 20 years and the impacts it is likely to have on international science
and begin to address differing views among a large community about its shared future. For ICSU, such a process was intended to inform collective strategic choices about its future role.
and to use them as a basis for developing contrasting explorrator scenarios of the future of international science cooperation.
and relevant with regard to the future of international science..All scenario spaces should plausibly be able to include positive and negative traits
The future preferences of states on socioeconomic development models will impact on international science. The present range of options extends from market-based economies to stronger developmental state intervention to communism,
The relationship between science and society is likely to have a significant impact on the future of international science.
The types of future international collaborative research infrastructures will have a significant impact on international science, presuming that there is an ongoing commitment to such structures at all.
offer four distinct, yet plausible images of the future‘world order'and of international science cooperation 20 years from now.
They are intended not as predictions of the future. Indeed it is a near certainty that none of these scenarios will come to pass as articulated.
and to expand the‘possibility space'on future courses of action. They put more emphasis on the multiplicity of futures
and are meant to encourage the development of strategies that are appropriate to a variety of circumstances,
and other interested parties develop‘agility'to manage future uncertainties. 3. 2. 3 Phase 3:
and encouraged a more rigorous treatment of the key drivers of change that are likely to impact on the future state and directions of internatiiona cooperation in science over the longer term.
only its general contours are presented in Box 2. Through‘backcasting'from the future success scenario of 2031 to the present day,
Some commentators misunderstood the exercise as being concerned with predicting the future, but they were a small minority.
but could be introduced during future strategic planning processes, as is done often in business environments (Mendonc¸a et al. 2003).
while the European Science Foundation (ESF) created a programme of Forward Looks in 2000 as an instrument for developing medium term perspectives on future directions of multi-disciplinary research in Europe. 4 In national settings,
foresight has been proven to be a useful tool for bringing together different stakeholders in processes of mutual learning and exchange of expectations of the future,
and for improving organisatioona agility vis-a vis future unpredictable change (Miles et al. 2008). These are all qualities that that can benefit international science cooperation as it seeks to address many of the grand challenges of our time.
Notes 1. The German Fraunhofer Gesellschaft (2010) has developed also exploratory scenarios for the future of the European research landscape in 2025.2.
Towards a user's guide',Futures, 38: 723 39. Cagnin, C. and Ko nno la, T. 2011)‘ The challenge of global foresight:
2010) Envisioning Future research Horizons: Scenarios for the European research Landscape 2025. Munich: Fraunhofer Gesellschaft. ICSU. 2006) Strengthening International Science for the Benefit of Society:
Fahey, L. and Randell, R. eds) Learning from the future. New york: Wiley. Royal Society. 2011) Knowledge, Networks and Nations:
Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New york: Wiley. Teixeira, A.,Martin, B. and von Tunzelmann, N. 2002)‘ Identification of Key Emerging Issues in Science and Society:
European Science Foundation. van‘t Klooster, S. A. and van Asselt, M. B. A. 2006)‘ Practising the scenario-axes technique',Futures, 38:15 30.
and conclude by assessing the future potential of the IPRM approach. 2. Systemicity, foresight and forward-looking policy design The concept of a system has different emphases in different branches of the innovation literature.
like exploring future opportunities in order to set priorities for investment in science and innovation activities, reorienttin the science and innovation system, demonstrating the vitality of the science and innovation system, bringing new actors into the strategic debate,
usually research-based, views on futures)..Facilitating policy implementation (widening the change capacities in a certain policy community..
and the analysis of the wider societal setting and to enable systematic analysis of future-oriented ideas that could spring either from technological development, policy practices or more generic societal development.
It is based on an idea that roadmaps are like visual narratives that describe the most critical paths of future developments (Phaal and Muller 2009.
Therefore organizations that are involved can utilize the vision as a‘beacon'for navigating towards the future.
and depicts the participants'common understanding of future societal and market needs. The fourth way to use roadmaps is with visionary strategizing.
The first way is oriented future i e. to define a desired vision and the related future targets,
and start to extrapolate steps backwards from the vision towards the present stage. This method is known as backcasting.
The third way is a hybrid between the future-oriented and present-oriented methods. Hybridization allows the roadmapping process to escape process lock ins that can result from too rigid a process.
which can contribute to dealing with the web of future dependencies. The first case study (green and intelligent buildings in Victoria Australia) was an example of a transformmatio roadmap that was completed as part of a wider regional strategy for industrial renewal.
Weber, M.,Kubeczko, K.,Kaufmann, A. and Grunewald, B. 2009)‘ Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis:
As current governance systems are incapable of tackling current and future, interconnected, global challennge (Ko nno la et al. 2012),
whether future costs are taken into account in today's policy-making. This is crucial for ensuring synergies between the programmes,
but opens opportunities for future research and piloting of the proposed approach. 3. 1 Foresight processes case by case The cases were handpicked principally because of the explicit role of foresight activities in their implementation as well as the fact that the present authors had access to the information
and carefully planned workshoops 317 future-oriented research issues were proposed by researchers and assessed by researchers
To this end, longer-term strategic requirements with a 10 5 year outlook are identified in a systematic way, building on knowledge about future aspects of animal disease develoopmen in Europe and the world,
business opportunities and needs for new co-operation structures Support identification of breakthrroug innovations on functions of cities in future (2020 50) Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 197 3
scenarrio for long-term urban developments, an improved understanding of future trends and research needs, first concepts and recommendations for policy measures, a strengthening of the European research and innovation communities,
and an Urban Europe exchange platform. 32 Despite the fact that these forums are designed not expliccitl for the anticipation of long-term future developments,
the ministries and organisations involved, their respective visions for the future, and their plans for Table 5. Ways in which foresight addresses co-ordination challenges in transnational research programming Co-ordination challenge Wood Wisdom-Net EMIDA Urban Joint
Three working groups with funding organissation were composed based on similar interests in future research topics Mapping of recent foresight exercises with support of FPU Project pays attention to research capacity
and capabilities to benefit from planned programme Proposals for new/additional foresights aiming to cover identified gaps in future outlooks on regional
and starting new initiatives with European R&i communities Temporal co-ordination Consultation on research issues among stakeholders provided future-oriented information on directtio and interests of research community.
desirable futures and pathways towards these futures for specific Urban Europe topics Use of a pilot call to improved understanding of future trends
Joint visions and joint research agendas also facilitate the alignment of future joint programmes and of research infrastructure planning with these programmmes The participation of the actors in research systems in a foresight process may also promote transparennc
Foresight may enhance vertical co-ordination by taking stock of previous anticipattor studies and existing visions for the future at regional, national and transnational level.
A gap analysis on missing future outlooks may propose additional studies at regional, national or transnational level.
Furthermore, comprehensive stocktaking on earlier foresight studies can be conducted to understand future developments and to position the programme in the light of other ongoing activities.
While engaging in future-oriented analysis and engaging wide sets of stakeholdders foresight activities prepare the ground for positioonin
Temporal co-ordination can be enhanced by foresight through the joint development of a vision for the future and of a roadmap towards it,
Alternatively, current and planned programmes can be checked against alternative future scenarios to test their robustness over time.
Also (pilot) calls can be used to increase the accumulation of knowledge on future trends, scenarios and other relevant data (by dedicating a pilot call to research on such future-oriented issues)
and to help building communities over time, thus making use of the collective knowledge of wider stakeholder groups.
orienting the efforts towards understanndin diverse interests and shared visions on future developments, thus contributing to better decision-making in a cost-effective way.
where a pilot call is planned to collect additional intelligence on future trends and scenarrio and support the construction of stakeholder communities and platforms.
34 Furthermoore foresight plays particularly a relevant role in learning on future developments in the areas where there is little
Food Security and Climate change have no openness to other EU Member States. 7. Platforms collecting data on foresight exercises can offer deeper insights into possible and desired futures of research priorities, e g.<
novelty, tentative researcher's interest and description how the researcher would like to contribute to future projects on the issue.
A set of examples of internet-based tools allowing for integration of data of all sorts in future-oriented technollog analysis can be found in Haegeman et al.
and shaping the future: Foresight for Europe'.'Final Report of the High level Expert Group for the European commission, 24 april 2002.
Ko nno la, T.,Salo, A.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V. and Vilkkumaa, E. 2012)‘ Facing the future:
-and decision-makers about new and future opportunities as well as threats and have prepared them (or make them aware) for drastic changes and surprises/shocks.
the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning.
Building on the advantages and disadvantages of each tool and method, Section 4 evaluates the different approaches and tools based on evaluation criteria reflectiin the information needs of policy-makers about new and future opportunities and threats.
and synthesising observations that hold potential for the formulation of pertinent future developments and the derivation of actionable implications on decision-making.
future, emerging, promising, threatening, solutioons discoveries, problems, crisis, tensions, growth, breakthroughs, breakdowns, or new insights in combinaatio with the domain demarcating keywords..
It comes close to the concept of future narratives as used by Van der Steen (2008) in his political discourse analysis. Van der Steen (2008) sees future narratives as‘stories about what the future,
or possible futures, may or will (depending on the narrative) look like and that connect these possible futures to current issues for political debate (the discourse)'.
'Recent horizon scans of the UK, Netherlands and Denmark show us many examples of smaller and larger potential emerging issues.
They usually describe a future narrative or mini scenario that, according to the cited author or source, should be taken into account by policymakers, society and/or research.
Signals are sought then that give a full or substantial future narrative with high impact for a certain policy level.
which describe a future narrative with a foreseen great impact on future science, society or economy in combination with a need for present-day (policy) decisions to prevent,
or multiple future storyline leading to the impact. The story often contains some recommenddations or at least suggestions,
or plausible assumptions in a logical way with a foreseen future high impact are considered. These high impact items are supporrte by reliable sources such as:
In most cases it will also be necessary to track the secondary signals in the near future to see
Conferences may also be particularly interesting for making contact with future-oriented experts as well as policy-makers in the relevant domains.
These searches and interviews lead to a selection of more or less full descriptions of potential emerging issues (future narratives)
In general, however, the potential of Twitter to become a main tool for retrieving future-oriented information is high as colleagues,
scientists and other futurists consider future analysts to be their most valuable source for weak signals (Hiltunen 2008b).
With a better understanding of the blogosphher it would be possible to develop tools to use collective wisdom to scan future-related signals and emerging issues.
However, they are useful for discussing with future-oriented experts as well as with policy-makers the validity of hypotheses on specific emerging issues or their novelty
if they are considdere to be of relevance for the future but have not been taken sufficiently into consideration by policy and society thus far.
Notwithstanding, a strong future narrative is able to draw the attention of the participants and agenda setters.
But, there is not only competition among future narratives but also between future narratives and present-day competing events
This means that not only the evidence-based plausible storyline in the identified future narrative counts.
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