The current and likely future dynamics of the creative content industries represent a major challeeng for the application of forward-looking methood to underpin
even methodollogie that have been developed to deal explicitly with a range of potential futures are reaching their limits in the face of the scope and pace of change in the creative content sector.
Established FTA approaache tend to struggle with the double challenge of exploring future trajectories of extremely fastchanngin areas like creative content
the EPIS project foressa the design and implementation of a combinatiio of methods to explore the future evolution of the creative content industries
and methodology used to envision the future of the European creative content sector, as well as the quality of the main results achieved.
a prospective study dealing with the future evolution of the creative content industtries She has worked also for many years in the field of electronic communications policy and regulation at Europeea level.
Among others, he has been involved in the Europeea projects FISTERA and EPIS, both dealing with the future of the information society.
In order to achieve our objective of delivering forwaardlooking intelligence on the future evolution of the creative content industries,
adaptive in terms of stressing the need to adapt to changing contextual developmeent (as opposed to stressing the ability to shape the future), in terms of assigning iterative monitoring and learning a central role in foresight,
the picture that emerged was one of uncertainty, with two potentially dominant future situations. The first is characterised by growing opportuunitie for the sort of small,
In addition, as neithhe of the two possible future developments seemed to be more likely than the other it was necessary to add the (originally unforeseen) scenario process
Delphi survey We used the Delphi method to elicit views from a wide-ranging audience on current and future trends Box 1. The creative content sector on the move Figure 3 shows the various stakeholders involved and the technology trends
which they had to assess topics based on statements about the future. In a RT Delphi, the particiipant not only judge twice but they can change their opinion as often as they like
In a nutshell, the Delphi survey revealed only a small number of topics where experts did not reach a consensus about the likely future development.
and Public policy February 2010 26 remain crucial for the future success of the creative content sector.
Design of scenarios for the future The sector analysis carried out as the first step of the process
Four future scenarios In developing the four scenarrio the workshop participants considered the impaac of ICT innovation, user behaviours and other factors on the transformation of the creative content industries.
a future in which negative effects of ICT-based media producctio and distribution (e g. spamming) have resullte in a widespread loss of popularity for the internet.
and further specification of our initial list of issues relevaan to the assessment of the impact of future sociotecchnoeconomic trends on the sustainability of the creative content sector.
Analysis of issues The fourth step of our methodology consisted of the analysis of the scenarios with a view to identifyyin issues that may have an impact on the future sustainability of the sector
which in turn meant that no consenssu on the future of the creative content industries could be achieved.
Key issues for the future success of the creative conteen industry Even though the scenarios reflect differrent often contradictory trends and uncertainties about the future of the creative content industry,
a number of important issues can be highlighted by looking across the scenarios. These issues may be technological,
They will be decisive for the future pathway of the creative conteen sector. It is thus important to understand those factors
Among the multitude of factors that are potentiaall important for successful future development of the content sector the following deserve particular attention:
(i e. envisioniin the future of a sector in disruption such as the creative content sector) with the need to derive conclussion for policy-making.
the methodological setup succeeded in generating forward-looking perspectives on the creatiiv content sector, building on a consolidated understtandin of how the sector works and likely future trends.
This becaam necessary because the range of possible futures turned out to be broader than was expected initially.
This is as much due to the inherent limitations of our abilities to look into the future and of the possibilities of what FTA can deliver as it is to the client's unrealistic expectations.
It is essential to accept that the future is opaque, uncertain and unpredicctable and that we must learn to handle uncertaiinty in particular in fast changing sectors like the creative content sector.
the practitionners while ensuring a plausible new picture of the future can be shaped which they themselves may not be willing to accept at the outset.
Although exploratory in nature, the latter reflect major differences of opinion among the stakeholders over the expected and desiire future of the sector.
which quality is expected to determine the future of several segments of the creative content sector.
On certain areas a consensus on their importtanc for the future was easy to reach
This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technoloog Analysis:
The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic thinking and Policy, 9 (2), 27 35. Gordon, T J and A Pease 2006.
Futures, 38 (8), 908 924. Marcus, C 2005. Future of Creative industries: Implications for Research policy. Working Document EUR 21471.
Brussels: European commission. Mateos-García, J, A Geuna, A w E Steinmueller et al. 2008. The Future Evolution of the Creative Content Industries:
Three Discussion papers. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publicatiion of the European communities (Scientific and Technical research series, EUR 23633 EN.
Futures, 36 (2), 201 218. Price waterhouse coopers 2006. Global Entertainment and Meddi Outlook: 2006 2010. Global Overview.
calof@telfer. uottawa. ca and jesmith@telfer. uottawa. ca. This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technollog Analysis:
future fuels for APEC economies; animal health; bio-health innovattio and stewardship, and future professional readiness for physicians and veterinarians.
He maintains active connecttion with foresight organizations in Europe, Asia, the US and Brazil. Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,
and members of the European community have used to guide their foresight design Quality of products Produce future-oriented materials for the system to use Development of reference materials for policy-makers and other innovation actors More informed science,
technology and innovation priorities Creating a language and body of practice for thinking about the future A source of inspiration for policy system actors More comprehensive,
and quality of social interactions Aid and help elaborate discussions of the future Facilitate thinking out of the box, challenge mindsets Creation of new networks and clusters of expertise,
repositioning of old ones Establishment of communications structures between innovation actors Support the empowerment of (innovation and futures) systems actors Contribute towards the development of actor identities Foresight provides many opportunities for enhanced
so as to gain agility and strengthen preparedness Learning effects impacts Supports system actors to create their own futures Creates a shared vision amongst diverse actors Gain insights into complex interactions
and experiences Highlighting the need for systemic approaches to both policy making and innovation Stimulation of others to conduct their own foresight exercise after being inspired Accumulation of relevant experience in how to think about the future
better informed about risks Using foresight to evaluate and future-proof strategies and priority actions Better evidence-based policies Making the case for increased investments in R&d Note:*
) In comparison to futures studies and forecastinng the literature on foresight has paid little attenntio to its actual strategic value.
and a central innovation and futures committee of the parliameen chaired by the prime minister. Another difference was in the area of participants.
In Finland, the Parliamenntar Committee on the Future is supported by a national fund for R&d (SITRA-government investtment augmented by a significant Nokia share sale in the 1990s) as well as by government S&t focused agencies such as the TEKES, VTT
but participants consistenntl stated that one needs a local sounding board that can be aligned with the policy needs/capacities, through providing training, intelligence and policy ideas relevant to future challenges;(
their orientation to the importance of considering diverse futures and the urgency and complexity of problems facing the national policy community.
future foresight assesssment may wish to expand the sample base in an attempt to both validate the critical success factors
Assessing the impact of future-oriented technology assessment. Paper presented at EU US Seminar: New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain.
Develoopin futures for agriculture in The netherlands: a systematti exploration of the strategic value of foresight.
http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Nares Damrongchai, Ponpiboon Satangput, Greg Tegart and Chatri
The results show that many future technologies will converge to become most effective in dealing with biosecurity and EID.
medical imaging, decision-making techniques, future knowledge management systems, and project management. Greg Tegart has had a long and varied career.
I to determine the possible preparation for the future research and development (R&d) needed to manage,
Phucharoenchanachai (2005) Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 44 In Phase II, the objective was to determine directiion for future R&d
and the future changes in medical requireement in each research domain as identified in Phase I. At the end of Phase II,
Information flow through the two phases of the project is shown in Figure 2. Scenarios We used scenarios in attempts to develop internally consistent stories about possible futures (Tegart and Johnston,
and beyoond Thirty three experts from seven economies met in Thailand in February 2007 to develop scenarios for the future of EID in the Asia-pacific region.
The groups identified key driveer of future change relevant to the study, and the uncertainties influencing these drivers were considerred Self-consistent scenarios were constructed then for an agreed time in the future.
Experts discussed the future changes in medical requirements in each research domain, the types of supporting technologies needed,
Future measures could include a preventive vaccine and new approaches to control the vector. Surveillance and detection (S&d) is the stage aftte the emergence of EID.
Future diagnostic or communication technologies could potentially improve upon the likelihood and timing of diagnoosi and reporting.
Future drugs could potentially be even more effective and cheaper. Prevention of spread (Pos. Pos include proceduure to limit the transmission of the parasite,
Future decisions regarding interventions should use all available information about the disease and possiibl interventions, together with current data from sensors and assays, health clinics, hospitals,
and to guide the future development of respoonse in controlling these factors. The life cycle model can be linked to six significaan technology domains:
The scope and focus were developed further into the context of the future by scenario planning, in
Future Fuel Technollogy Summary Report of an APEC-wide Foresight study. Bangkok: APEC Center for Technology foresight.
Shaping the Future of European Societies. Report by High-level Expert Group on‘Foresighting the New technology Wave'.
Challenges of user involvement in future technology analysis Katrien De Moor, Katrien Berte, Lieven De Marez, Wout Joseph, Tom Deryckere and Luc Martens The shift
which focused on future mobile applications in a living lab setting, we illustrate how the two challenges can be tackled.
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 52 Indeed, although‘the consumer'has always been important,
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 53 of the diffusion theory has to do with its proinnovvatio bias and the assumed linearity of the innovaatio and adoption process.
and at a more latent level that are quite difficult to grasp User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 54 narrow and technology-centric scope of many projects.
users can for example generate unique and valuable ideas for future products (Kristensson et al. 2004). ) User-driven innovation should
A user-oriented assessment of (future) wireless applicattion in cities was conducted. Six IBBT research groups collaborated on this project and
i-City's User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 55 large-scale living lab was the main research location.
In the first stage (opportunity identification), possibbl (future) applications and trends in consumer behavviou were explored.
and knowledge in order to identify current and future mobile applications that might not only make a significant difference to consummers everyday lives,
but also to overcome users'limited capacity to imagine future technological opportunities. First extensive desk research was conducted
Secondly, in order to generate some new (and even wild) ideas for future mobile city services, users were involved in two focus groups.
and to imagine future needs and applications. Users oftte keep referring to familiar technologies such as multimedia messaging services, phone calls etc.
evaluation Figure 1. Schematic overview of the three research phases User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 56 activities and finds it difficult to identify with the life
and sounded out for their interest in Table 2. Final list of 80 (future) mobile applications Finding people with same interests Note taking Reader Mobile payment Traffic jam
from home to work Avoid traffic jams Buy petrol Take the children to school Travel abroad Book airline tickets Leisure travel Go on holiday User involvement in future technology analysis Science
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 58 disregarded, this choice illustrates that decisions are made sometimes at the expense of the user-centred rationale.
54/5 Tourist information (Tourist cluster) 3. 87/5 Mobile help for studies (and Work study cluster) 3, 43/5 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February
Future research will include the testing of this multimettho approach with a large number of users and several usage contexts and parameters in a living lab setting.
Q2, Q5 and Q6 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 60 Conclusion In this paper, we have focused on the shift from traditiiona technology push to more user-oriented and user
Empirical findings from the interdisciplinary ROMAS project on future mobile applications were presented in this paper in order to illustrate how both challenges can be tackled.
the establishment of real user-driven living labs might provide a more accuraat insight into users'current and future needs.
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 61 Latour B 1993. We Have Never Been Modern.
The future of innovation research. In The Internatiiona Handbook on Innovation, L V Shavinina (ed.),pp 1094 1100.
Current and future societal challenges as well as their combination emerge from such transformations and call for appropriate forms of FTA to support
which served to translate possible futures into a schema that is both comprehensible and actionable, a high level of imagination and openness to new ideas,
FTA can support the development of knowledge by providing, for example, insights on longer-term developments, the scope and opportunities for shaping futures,
and the mutual positioning of innovattio system actors in relation to the future. At the same time, FTA can support
M. Boden et al. are also internal drivers for the emergence of novel forms of future intelligence
and human sciences, could play in addressing future global grand challenges. Ahlqvist Valovirta and Loikkanen describe the developmmen of a new policy instrument, innovation policy roadmapping,
They draw on the foresight exercise‘Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges'(Boden et al. 2010) to illustrate how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues, the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters,
References Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegeman, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
mind-set transformation. 1. Introduction Exercises to explore the future are considered to be importaan for strategic planning, decision-making support and for public policy formulation,
Foresight seeks to provide a strategic perspective for the present, with knowledge of future possibilities, building commitment to and coordination on national or institutioona priorities.
It represents a merger of future methods with those of strategic management. It is defined by Habegger (2010) as a deliberate attempt to broaden the‘boundaries of perception
which the future could unfold. Strategic foresight exercises can be developed by means of different approaches, dealing with aspects that might include the following:
strategic foresight exercises (future studies; strategic evaluation of large programs and projects; information and knowledge diffusion. It is considdere to be an interface organization in the ST&I environmment having responsibility for articulating the views of the government, private sector and academia,
and a shared vision on future possibilities are all intangibles which need to be pursued. Their value exceeds
On the other hand, as the future is unpredictable, the notion that prevails is that studies of the future are not very effective.
Finally, social engagement means a change in the pattern of behavior by the citizens, much more participative and conscious of their rights.
there is the issue of the unpredictability of the future it is neither possible nor feasible to say how the future will be (De Geus 2002.
However, attempting to understand how the future may unfold and dealing with the notion of‘possible futures'(Jouvenel 1967),
is not only feasible, but is also very important nowadays and constituute a differential for organizations and countries looking forward to shaping their own future
and not merely being hostages to destiny. In this sense, shaping the future from the perception of present opportunities is, broadly speaking, known as foresight.
In addition, one of the characterristic of the foresight approach involves the ample possibilities offered to investigate
We can say that they are interconnnecte every time the need arises to identify possible futures
or imagine desirable futures, incorporating the visions of those who, at the same time, will be their builders and their users,
since the choices made today are decisive for shaping the future. The participation of different stakeholders in the process of identifying possible futures creates a more democratic decision-making
and incorporates different visions into the foresight process, different points of view, contributing to the success of the entire exercise and to the quality of the final results.
looking forward to visions of the future and to what must be done to transform those visions into reality,
which needs further knowledge generation and interpretation of trends, perspectives and future possibilities. Furthermore, it is important to assemble possible futures in the same way that a puzzle is assembled
step by step, and part by part, testing how best one piece fits into another. This requires time, especially in the case of complex situations.
as different stakeholders usually have divergent perspectives for defining the best route towards the desired future. Foresight exercises help to overcome these limits
and the future of complex themes, such as climate change, demography, biodiversity, bioethanol, energy efficiency etc. In the last three years, CGEE has conducted some relevant national strategic foresight exercises,
as well as the group dynamics of such a management team, may have prominent influence on determining how such competitive force will approach the possible opportunities, uncertainties and threats of the future business environment.
This approach considers that many forms of analysing the future of ST&I coexist and can be mobilized, individualll or in combination with others,
2004) have coined the term technology futures analysis (TFA), which comprises technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, technollog assessment, and foresight.
process which leads to a more complete understanding of the forces shaping the future and
and Grupp 2001) This approach aims to link the present decisions and actions to a strategic perspective, coping with the possibilities of the future for the construction of commitmeent around national priorities for ST&I. 248.
thinking, debating and shaping the future. The diversity of communication channels and the need for effective coordination between these three different levels emphasizes the importance of setting up a well-structured governance body for the whole exercise.
and understand possible futures associated with the main issues under analysis. In this phase, it is vital to apply collective intelligence procedures,
to achieve high levels of common understanding about future possibilities and impacts associated with the theme of the main exercise.
‘Our future is now'.'This message must be interpreted as a call to explore possible futures and to adapt the agency to face potential future developmennts and,
at the same time, increase and improve its current performance indicators. FINEP's mission entails promoting economic and social development in Brazil through public funding for the development of ST&I.
It is broad enough to support a large spectrum of ST&I activities in the country. All phases of the innovation value chain are being mapped by FINEP
and analysis of robustness Final report and dissemination of results Water resources Establishment of ST&I priority agenda aimed at guiding future investments made by governmental agencies in six predefined themes Quality
This should include social and cultural aspects associated with GMO commercial use and consumption in agricultural and health sectors Future economic and social impacts of GMO technologies;
future of plant breeding and plant breeder profile; and trends in intellecctua property rights (IPR) Mapping S&t national capacity according to data available in CNPQ/Lattes databases and Innovation Portal Expert panels to debate the following themes:
future of plant breeding and future breeder profile; and IPR as applied to biotechnology development Validation of results in workshoops final report
and disseminnatio of results Nanotechnology Mapping current situation and future trends in S&t in Brazil and in a number of selected nations,
FINEP's strategic management plan was developed in 17 months, in an intense and challenging process of looking into the future of the agency and its role in the national ST&I system.
The main ideas and designed strategy on how to implement out-of-the-box thinking at FINEP are shown in Fig. 3. A vision of a possible, successful future for FINEP,
on one hand, balanced the knowledge related to the present and a number of relevant future possibilities, and, on the other hand, compared the internal and external views about the agency,
which could impact its present and future. There were three relevant elements over which FINEP had partial or no control at all:
the political changes that could affect it as a government-owned company. 5. 2 Future perspectives A tool the future timeline was developed
is the representation of a temporal sequence of possible future events, delimiting the scope of the observation dimensions
and of the identification of drivers for future events promoting environmental changes, and alterations in the trajectories of relevant phenommena defined by national and international studies,
which emerged regarding the future, and create a fuzzier vision than scenario building permits. If we look at the past,
and the keywords indicattiv of the future-bearing facts are shown, although the complete timeline included other variables).
observation dimensions and facts related to Future challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 253 representatives. The interviews were structured semi
The views of these players were importaan elements in broadening the vision for the future of FINEP.
The final workshop,‘FINEP of the future',provided a forum for further discussions between employees and stakeholders, resulting in the construction of the key elements of the proposed plan:.
The statement of the future vision..The definition of core competencies..The proposal of strategic objectives to formulate an action plan.
which considered future trends in ST&I and their possible long-term impacts on the agency. This was created due to FINEP's need to promote changes in its organizational and management processes,
allowed for shared commitments between the relevant players to facilitate the construction of a future vision and roles for FINEP in the national ST&I system.
techniques and tools is one of the characteristics of future studies, as has been highligghte by Porter et al.
The preoccupations of FINEP's staff and their suggestions about the future of the agency needed to be heard
visualize possible futures and take strategic actions. The development of the FINEP SMP also represented an excellent opportunity for those participating to reflect on the main characteristics of the national ST&I systeem whether good or bad,
when foresight exerccise and innovation strategies are applied to new future possibilities in academia. Some of the intangible gains must be highlighted
More important than consensus on future challenges not always possible is shared the sense of commitmeen to a desirable future established by different stakeholders..
a case study in learning from the future',paper presented at International Conference Probing the Future:
Planning for the Unpredictable Future. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business Press. Eriksson, E. A. and Weber, K. M. 2008)‘ Adaptive foresight:
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Slaughter, R. A. 1999) Futures for the Third Millennium: Enabling the Forward View. Sydney: Prospect Media.
supporting economic and social development (zhicheng fazhan), leading the future (yinling weilai). Priorities expreesse in the MLP include‘strategic priorities'(zhanlue Research priority setting in China. 261 zhongdian),
The 863 Program serves the goal of‘leading to the future'by supporting the development of frontier technologies.
Furthermore, the increasing research investments are expected to provide the foundattio for future economic growth, to enable the restructuring of industry from low-tech to high-tech,
Science, technology and China's politiica future: a framework for analysis'.In: Simon, D. and Goldman, M. eds) Science and Technology in Post-Mao China.
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