Toward networked foresight? Exploring the use of futures research in innovation networks Patrick van der Duin a b, 1,,
*Tobias Heger c, Maximilian D. Schlesinger d a Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX, The netherlands b Futures research & Trendwatching at the Fontys University
of Applied sciences, Academy for Creative industries, The netherlands c Chair for Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship, University of Potsdam, August-Bebel-Straße 89,14482 Potsdam, Germany d EICT Gmbh
, Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin, Germany 1. Introduction Both innovation and futures research have been identified as being crucial for the success of companies.
The connection between futures research and innovation has been established well (e g. by Cooper 1, Tidd 2) and the use of futures research within individual companies has been studied on various occasions.
These studies have provided insight into how futures research methods and innovation processes can be combined and integrated 3, how technology intelligence processes can be organized 4
and how corporate foresight affects companies'innovative capabilities 5. In 2003, Chesbrough coined the term‘Open innovation'to describe the paradigm‘‘that firms can
as firms look to advance their technology''6. Since Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Innovation networks Futures research Foresight Networked foresight Open innovation A b s T R A c T Along with the rise of the now popular‘open'paradigm in innovation management,
Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jo u rn al ho m epag e: ww w. els evier. c o m/lo cat e/fu tu res http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures
. 2014.01.008 0016-3287/2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. the introduction of the term, studies using it have attracted increasing academic and corporate attention 7,
The link between futures research and innovation networks led us to investigate the following questions:(1) How is futures research related to the context of‘open innovation'in general,
and to‘innovation networks'in particular?(2) Do activities that could be named‘networked foresight'exist?(3) How are these activities currently conducted?
first, by investigating the relationship and analogies of innovation management and futures research; second, by explicating the link of futures research to innovation networks.
Then, the approach for the analysis is outlined, the CIM is introduced as an analytical framework and the categorization of foresight is explained.
The article finishes with concluding remarks. 2. Toward networked foresight 2. 1. Analogies in the development of innovation management and futures research Liyanage 13, Niosi 14 and Ortt and van der Duin 15
Since the 1940s, the way people and organizations have looked at the future has changed from a technology-oriented attempt to predict the future toward a more exploratory perspective that incorporates many different societal aspects (e g.
Up to the 1980s, futures research focused on forecasting future developments by applying s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models 18 20.
Subsequently, futures research focused on identifying possible and preferable futures instead of trying to predict the future 21.
and developments that are likely to impact the future of the focal firm and the preparation of adequate measures to react to the various possible futures 22.
The close link between innovation and futures research tempts analogies to be drawn between the historical developments of both concepts as illustrated in Table 1
. Since the connection between the different generations of innovation processes and futures research can be established for the past,
this article seeks to analyze the apparent next step in the development of futures research: networked foresight. 2. 2. Linking futures research to innovation networks 2. 2. 1. Trends driving corporate innovation toward open innovation processes Innovation, i e.,
, the process of creating a new product, service or system 24, has long been considered a driving force behind economic growth 25.
For a long time, internal R&d capabilities were associated closely with innovativeness. In fact, substantial efforts were put into keeping the results of innovation a secret.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 63 was redefined as‘‘a set of organizational routines and processes by
Futures research and open innovation Futures research aims at systematically exploring predicting and/or explaining future developments with the means of different methods and techniques, e g.,
, scenario analysis, technology forecasting, roadmapping, and backcasting or the above-mentioned s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models. Thus, it supports companies'efforts to sense change
In this context, the application of futures research methods can serve various goals such as testing strategies, or identifying new business fields or new policy issues.
The link between futures research and open innovation became apparent in past research. Rohrbeck and Gemu nden 5 link three of the above-listed trends driving open innovation shortening life cycles
Rohrbeck, Ho lzle and Gemu nden discuss the role of futures research for corporate innovativeness in the form of foresight workshops 8. These workshops are identified as one instrument of Deutsche telekom for embracing the open innovation paradigm
In this section we have shown two paths that led us to believe that networked foresight is the next generation of futures research:
First, the close connection between innovation management and futures research and analogies in their past developments hint at networked foresight as a logical next generation of futures research.
However, systematic research about futures research in innovation networks as one form to embrace open innovation is lacking.
Moreover, activities observable in the three cases are Table 1 Generations of innovation management and futures research (based on van der Duin 3
Innovation processes Futures research Generation 1 Technology push Technology forecasting Generation 2 Market pull Technology assessment Generation 3 Coupled innovation processes Exploratory futures research Generation
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 64 investigated in terms of type, scope and foresight role. The goal is to identify
and characterize‘networked foresight'as the basis for further research. 3. Methodology 3. 1. Study design For analyzing the link between futures research
The WINN case allows futures research to be examined in a cooperation between two partners (RWS and an external consultancy Deltares) enhanced by external knowledge.
while the EIT ICT Labs case made it possible to observe futures research activities in a large network of around 65 partner organizations.
For analyzing the future orientation and openness of the three networks we applied the Cyclic Innovation Model as an analytical framework.
the link of future orientation, futures research and the network is analyzed by connecting the CIM analysis with the character of the foresight activities. 3. 2. Analytical framework 3. 2. 1. The Cyclic Innovation Model The main
and information in the‘innovation arena'and (2) that every well-functioning innovation process should be based on one or more images of the future 47,48.
which links‘the'future to innovation processes and level 2, which structures the partners involved in the innovation network and links them in a cyclic way.
since it comprises a direct link between futures research and innovation. Level 1 of the CIM is illustrated in Fig. 1. This future-oriented part of the CIM consists of four components:
1. The image (s) of the future, which function as a kind of‘Leitmotiv'for all innovation-related activities.
It is fed by the organization's internal ambitions for the future and by an awareness of external developments that may influence the organization's future goals
and performance. 2. A process model that guides the organization toward the envisioned future. 3. The ongoing innovation processes together constitute a transition path that leads the organization from the present to the future. 4. The inner component leadership
links the other three components. The management is responsible for consistent interconnected and balanced links between the other components.
It also includes setting out an inspiring vision of the future, while ensuring that this future vision is aligned strategically with a sound process model that allows managing
and executing the innovation processes adequately and the actual transition to the envisioned image of the future.
The cyclic nature of the CIM is a result of the inherent constant feedback and feed-forward between the four components leadership,
image of the future, process model and transition path. For instance, the transition path aims at realizing the 2 Critics argue that the active involvement in day-to-day work creates bias in the participant-observers in that they may partly
or completely neglect their external role or impose actions that are not in line with sound scientific practice,
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 65 once-set image of the future. At the same time, changes in the image of the future for example, due to an adapted vision as a result of leadership activities can mean that the transition path has to be adapted
just as the strategy might need to be updated. 3. 2. 2. Applying the CIM for analyzing the preferences on networking
and the interconnectedness of futures research In this article the CIM is used as a tool to structure
If that is not the case the transition path might lead to a‘wrong'image of the future, i e.,
Additionally, the application of the CIM can reveal various system failures that can limit the effectiveness of the use of futures research.
Since the use of futures research in innovation networks is not yet mature it can be expected that the application of the CIM to the cases reveals that the focal networks have not explicated
three different levels are used (visualized as gray-shading) for each component of the CIM to visualize their preference concerning openness and network orientation of futures research activities.
They merely reflect the state of each case concerning the planned and actual network orientation concerning futures research activities. 3. 2. 3. Categorizing the networked foresight activities The implementation of the identified networked foresight activities is structured according to the three roles of foresight
the connection between innovation and the future. For details see 48. P. van der Duin et al./
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 66 field and carries out various foresight activities organized in separate programs and projects.
but also architects, people from advertising and art, secondary school children and students to provide a‘‘fresh perception of an appropriate future water policy''49.4.1.1.
Image of the future vision Now WINN clearly aims at exploring and developing innovative solutions for water management in The netherlands with many partners 49.
However, a mixed image emerged with regard to the presence and use of an image of the future regarding the innovation processes of WINN in the past.
and future innovations Challenging the state-of-the-art of current R&d projects 3 See http://www. rijkswaterstaat. nl/water/innovatie en onderzoek/index/for more details about WINN. 4 From Deltares'website (www. deltares. nl):‘
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 67 to act as guards against defective outside political influences while also making sure that the internal components of the network were aligned. 4. 1. 5. Networked foresight activities Foresight activities inside Rijkswaterstaat
The future of WINN itself was addressed not within these activities (Table 3). 4. 2. Case 2:
In practice, the EICT supports collaborative projects in futures research, basic research, applied research, and new product development with expertise in innovation management, project management, and IT infrastructure.
and research. 6 4. 2. 1. Image of the future vision When applying the CIM to the EICT,
Activity Short description Type 1. 1 Inspirational workshop Identified future‘themes'for inspiration and to structure innovation processes for WINN Singular activity 1. 2 Business modeling Addressed
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 68 innovation process, from futures research, topic identification and business field exploration to consortia building,
Here, collaborative futures research activities supported by EICT make it possible to identify risks and opportunities in the very early stages of product development (see below).(
The integration of new partners with additional competences, ideas and insights broaden the innovation potential of the network. 4. 2. 5. Networked foresight activities Futures research activities are conducted in particular within the innovation management unit of EICT.
roadmapping and target costing 39, business modeling and future studies. The outcome of the applied futures research methods is broadened substantially in projects with interdisciplinary character and a combination of knowledge and insight from various industries.
The futures research activities at EICT have in common that they are applied usually on a project basis. Projects are set up with explicit definitions of time, scope and desired results.
Futures research methods are used subsequently to explore and evaluate possible future developments within the project boundaries. Thus, the futures research activities within EICT usually address thematic issues in various industries.
The future of the partners involved and EICT as an innovation network is addressed not within the foresight activities of the innovation management unit.
In Table 4 the identified foresight activities within EICT are listed, briefly described and their character stated. 4. 3. Case 3:
EIT ICT Labs The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) is the latest attempt of the European commission (EC) to increase European innovation performance.
The idea to create an institute that combines excellent research, education and business activities emerged in 2005 51.
Activity Short description Type 2. 1 Future studies Continuously identify future trends in an industry based on Delphi
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 69 Innovation Agenda (SIA), reviewed and revised with support of the KICS once they were established.
Image of the future vision The starting point of the EIT ICT Labs was the vision of an integrated institute.
and educate the CIOS of the future, 7 which is subsidized by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF).(
Since then, proposals for future activities have to meet a set of predefined criteria and are evaluated
Several collaborative instruments were established to support the identification and selection of activities for the future of the network, e g.,
provides images of the future, identifies innovation opportunities and potential for commercialization, and creates cohesion within the ICT Labs about current trends.
and the partners are engaged in domains that will drive the future. The aim is explicitly to‘‘establish a common outlook on the future of ICT to create cohesion
and a strong community across nodes and partner organizations''56. The best-practice benchmarking ensures the implementation of state-of-the-art instruments
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 70 executive steering board and a chief executive officer (CEO), who leads a management team with 12 members.
Eventually, the assessment of the outcome (network performance versus original expectations) will determine the partners'future commitment.
trends and developments in selected fields, establishes a common outlook on the future of ICT
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 71 Given the doubtful existence of a clear vision at the beginning of the program the transition path was lacking direction.
By now, the desired future and vision for WINN clearly embrace an open and networked approach to foresight to identify
the foresight activities were used to develop strategic guidance for the future in water management, to identify new business opportunities
being enthusiastic and very active does not necessarily promote (1) contemplation about the future, (2) structuring,
and analyzing thoughts about the future and (3) analyzing the possible impact of future developments. Second, pressure from the top management level of RWS to present short-term results
in addition to conceptual work about possible future developments created a kind of‘‘the urgent drives out the important''atmosphere as Henri Kissinger put it.
when it comes to conducting and supporting collaborative innovation among its partners, the image of the future,
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 72 provide frameworks for open innovation emerged in the last few years, e g.,
, Joint Technology initiatives (JTIS), the European Alliance for Innovation and the EIT KICS (case 3). Thus, the image of the future for EICT seems to be need in of an update. 8 The partner structure of EICT of a research institute, a university
and future orientation based on the CIM. 5. 2. 1. Networked foresight activities The partners use EICT's competences in foresight mainly on a project basis and for specific thematic topics;
adjusting the image of the future and the vision and strategy of EICT quarterly board meetings,
EICT's own foresight competences could complement these meetings. 4. The existing foresight activities could be utilized to capture external developments adequately to guide EICT prepare it for the future. 5. Foresight would benefit from additional network partners that add to the existing knowledge base.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 73 5. 3. Case 3: EIT ICT Labs The EIT ICT Labs have an elaborate mission
and vision for the network based on the image of the future of an open network of partners that fosters research and business opportunities.
Fig. 4 visualizes the EIT ICT Labs in regard to its future orientation and openness. 5. 3. 1. Networked foresight activities In the EIT ICT Labs 10 foresight activities with varying roles
Based on the CIM evaluation and the futures research activity analysis the following conclusions can be drawn for the EIT ICT Labs:
Activity Initiator role Strategist role Opponent role Scope 2. 1 Future studies & (&) Open (organizations and end-users) 2. 2 Business field exploration
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 74 3. Some networked foresight activities, e g.,, the innovation radar, are used to provide the basis for the process model of the network especially
and guide the future of the network. 5. 4. Cross-case evaluation 5. 4. 1. Toward networked foresight within the three cases In Fig. 5 the classification of the foresight activities in terms scope
'and on a project basis. When one of the network partners requests futures research for a selected topic EICT creates a network tailored for that topic
and provides the methodological background for futures research. The foresight activities are mostly mid-to short-term activities within Table 8 The scope of the foresight activities in the EIT ICT Labs
Fig. 4. Visualization of the EIT ICT Labs concerning openness and networks for futures research activities.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 75 the network of constant network partners or on a contractual basis. The strategic role of foresight for the corporate strategy of the partners is the focus of attention.
Futures research in the EIT ICT Labs can be characterized as thematically driven networked foresight conducted by equal partners. 5. 4. 2. Networked foresight linked to open innovation
and should be used to develop a suitable process model toward an envisioned future of an innovation network.
Second, foresight and especially networked foresight can also be used to guide the transition path toward the envisioned future.
shaping and modeling the future of the network itself, i e.,, in terms of the CIM especially the image (s) of the future, the vision and the process model of the network.
From the perspective of the network this is a coupled (outside-in and inside-out) information flow from the perspective of the partners it is an inside-out information flow. 6. Conclusions This paper aimed at exploring futures research in innovation networks by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model as analytical framework to three cases
and analyzing foresight activities therein in terms of type, scope and role of each activity. The scope comprises contributors
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 76 In the literature review two paths that indicate networked foresight as the next generation of futures research were identified:
first, the close connection and analogies of innovation management and futures research hint at networked foresight as the logical next generation of futures research;
Furthermore, the use of foresight within the networks could be increased (1) to address the future of the networks themselves
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a portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development, Futures 42 (2010) 380 393.18 F. Phillips, On s-curves
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Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010003-04 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 3 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
on being able to discern the possible shape of the future: what is likely to influence it,
which addressed the challenge of increasing the impact of future-oriented technology analysis on policy and decision-making. HE RECENT ONSET OF CRISES AND challenges ranging from climate change, finanncia and economic downturns,
and shape future technological developmennts mainly, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment. The FTA labbe brings together a set of widely differing techniqques
building on a typology proposed during the first FTA conference in Seville by the Technology Future Analysis methods Working group (see Table 1). Keenan
and Popper (2007) defined six principles to distinguish FTA from other policy-support techniqques future-orientation, participation, evidencebassed multidisciplinarity, coordinated mobilisation of people and resources,
impact checklists, state of the future index, multiple perspectives assessment Matrices Analogies, morphological analysis, cross-impact analyses Statistical analyses Risk analysis, correlations Trend analyses Growth
Requirements analysis, institutional analyses, stakeholder analyses, social impact assessment, mitigation strategising, sustainability analyses, action analyses (policy assessment), relevance trees, futures wheel
This renders decisiionmaking smarter and more capable of tackling expected future challenges. Although the applicatiion described in the papers are very different,
Score Comment Future orientation***Future orientation***Participation*(*Consultation of experts for certain parameters**Validation of modelling output in a workshop***Validation through wide consultation Participation**(Depends on size of community involved
by challenging policy-makers to look at uncertaaintie and unexpected futures, in order to deveelo more resilient policies towards sustainability.
using future mobile applications as a casestuudy The analysis is based on the results of the Reseaarc on Mobile Applications and Services project,
Futures (in press. Keenan, R and R Popper (eds. 2007. Guide to Research Infrastruccture Foresight.
Fitting future-oriented analysis methods to study types. In Future-Oriented Technology Analysiis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, C Cagnin, M Keenan, R Johnson, F Scapolo and R Barré (eds..
Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer verlag. Saritas, O 2006. Systems thinking for foresight, Phd thesis. PREST, Manchester Business school, University of Manchester.
Towards the desired future of the elderly and ICT: policy recommendations based on a dialogue with senior citizens.
It helps policy-makers in addressing the diversity of future societal and environmental challenges and in addressing the potential of emerging areas of science and technology in an integrated way.
this paper makes a series of recommendations regarding horizon scanning processes at the national level and the construction of common future-oriented policies.
This paper is reworked a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technollog Analysis:
Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 8 Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats,
opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizzo scanning may explore novel and unexpected issuues as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signals.
seeking out alternattiv sources of information and challenging impliici assumptions about the future that underlie today's decisions (UK HSC).
and sciennc and technology (S&t) foresight and other FTA TOOLS by its wide scope and its function to envisage the complexity of future societal problems
In generral this means that the future horizon is divided up into a set of categories that serve as coordinaate (in parallel with the spatial coordinates used by radar
) The Government office of Science in the UK started its national horizon scanning in 2004.6 This activity covers a wide range of S&t forecasts (Delta Scan) and future developments across all policy domains (Sigma Scan.
focusing on the societal needs of the future and Emerging s&t. NISTEP (2005) in Japan executed a scanning-like activity during 2005,
An increasing number of countries in Europe are considering undertaking horiizo scanning activities in the near future like Malta, Norway,
Finally, we are persuaded that horizon scanning gives us a tool to create a common understanding and shared awareness of a wide variety of future problems, threats and opportunities (PTOS),
and generally under-researched which might have a significant impact on our future way of living and
the aim was also to influence the framing of policies into a more future-oriented mode,
and foresight are aimed explicitly at developing resillien policies that are adaptive to changing and uncerrtai futures.
In The netherlands the aim is to contribute to the future orientaatio of policies towards sustainability,
Policymakker are encouraged to expose their analysis to possible future trends to prepare themselves better. Alert policy-makers to forgotten
to challenge dominant, implicit assumptions about the future. Stimulate decision-makers and their staff to use horizon scanning in decision-making on different levels,
and to envisage the future in a more systematic way. Identify new challenging issues for policy
Identify knowledge gaps (relevant for resolving future problems or for exploiting potential opportunities). Identify possible inter-linkages (enhancers, inhibitoors multipliers) between future issues (from differren parts of the horizon) with a potentially major impact.
which for instance could be used for setting priorities for future investments but also for initiattin public debate. Development of the national horizon scans Data collection All three scans were developed in phases.
issues were collected from a variety of (future) literature and the internet and through consultation with experts (workshops, interviiew etc..
while the Delta Scan of the S&t developments was carried out by the Institute for the Future.
The primary data for the Danish scan were deliverre by the OECD International Futures Programme Unit with support from DASTI,
In the Dutch scan as well as in the UK scan, networks of future analysts were used to support the scan as a permanent soundiin board.
but also scientific discipllines The involvement of client departments and their own future analysis is considered to be mutualll advantageous:
such contacts have been encouragge by the formation of a network of future analysts (FAN club.
In this way, the future-oriented approach is disseminated through the whole of the government system, as well as the scientific communnit and society.
and intensive literature surveys (including foresight, future studies and even science fiction) and panel groups. Horizon scanning seeks to identify what in The netherlands scan are described as potential PTOS
Issue (or PTO) selection is therefore based on likelihood and estimated impact on the future of our society.
quality of life, ecological quality (survival, health, longevity of (future) citizeens health of ecosystems; social dimension; economic financial dimension:
self-realization of (future) citizens (freedom of indiviidual and of religious and cultural expressioon) and stability of international relations (peaceful coexisttenc with the rest of the world.
and future thinking to inform the policies of (all) departments. It operatte under the government's chief scientific adviser.
and regional and local communities that asked for help and/or cooperation in the area of horizon scanning and development of future strategies.
and institutions that are influenced certainly by the future-oriented project work and the material provided by the scans.
In future, the way forward may be to link the broad national scan with more in depth departmental scans from other ministries
making sure that existiin scientific evidence is overlooked not or contradiccted with the need to point to potential future scientific developments for
and evoking important questiion around the future than in providing clear-cut Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 17 answers (Medina Vasquez, 2006).
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