Global foresight: Lessons from a scenario and roadmapping exercise on manufacturing systems Cristiano Cagnin a b,,
Examples range from the European commission through the Framework programmes and its Joint research Centre, the OECD through its International Futures Programme, UNIDO through its Technology foresight Initiative, the Asian-Pacific Economic cooperation (APEC) Centre for Technology foresight, the UK Foresight
less attention has been paid to the theory and Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jou r nal h o mep ag e: w ww. elsevier. co m/loc ate/fu tu r es 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.007 practice of the design and management of international foresight processes.
an international FTA project addressing the future of intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS). Section 4 outlines the lessons learned from the authors'experiences in designing
how FTA projects like IMS hold out the promise of achieving better international coordination and joint preparedness for future grand challenges.
At the same time, a spectrum of foresight methods can be applied to develop a better understanding of possible future developments of the systems under analysis 7. In this context
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 28 In the design phase is important to structure aspects such the interactions between people (e g. participants, stakeholders, policy and decision makers,
whereby future-oriented expectations are produced jointly, combined and assimilated through various inputs and critical reflection.
because it focuses diverse inputs by soliciting signals that convey ideas about future innovations aligned with the systemic and action-oriented nature of innovation processes,
instead of less focused future-oriented statements. Salo et al. 13 agree when they claim that an effective communication process with all stakeholders involved,
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 29 of results. Conducting the investigation this way makes it possible to address multiple levels
and the supporting actions needed to shape the future of intelligent manufacturing through international cooperation in each of,
Four scenario snapshots of possible states of the future by 2025 were developed. Based on these the IMS2020 Vision was defined.
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 30 online tools to engage project partners and the supporting roadmapping group4 in well-defined stages.
and a variety of ideas about future innovations linked to one or more KATS and to social,
T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 31 3. 2. Scenarios and joint vision A more in depth analysis of the findings of the state of the art and expectations
6. Developing the selected snapshots highlighting how their main features interact within each possible state of the future by 2025.
and to allow partners to think freely without trying to connect these possible states of the future with the desired IMS2020 vision,
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 32 After the snapshots were developed within each of the four groups they were circulated to all project partners and IMS
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 33 1 3 years and to be concluded in 3 7 years;
Results are currently being used to develop further framework programme (FP) 7 calls and in shaping future RI calls from 2014.
This generated momentum for shaping globally the intelligent manufacturing industry of the future 27. At the same time, new schemes and frameworks to support manufacturing systems research are being developed.
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 34 calls, as well as workshops with industry.
this would be an interesting question for future research or a project. Further efforts to develop
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 35 The use of online tools was important to enable partners to collaborate across the project within dedicated spaces
T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 36 devoted to the joint selection of variables to be used
and convince partners of the benefits of elaborating the survey questions in a way that would enable it to capture future innovation ideas and the ways in
The first online survey was designed also to collect information that would be helpful for understanding both future developments
and future EU calls after 2014. At the same time, the way in which the scenarios, the shared vision,
therefore critical for shaping future customised RI calls for project collaboration and appropriate funding mechanisms. 5. Conclusions The IMS2020 scenario and roadmapping process shed light on how future global collaborative research
and innovation (RI) could encourage sustainable manufacturing. It highlighted some of the challenges in organising global foresight exercises.
when the use of such tools is an integral part of the design of the whole exercise a finding that deserves further research in order to advance the field of future studies.
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 37 Acknowledgements The views expressed are those of the author
C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Ko nno la, Facing the future: time for the EU to meet global challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.2 L. Y. Tang, Q. Shen, Factors affecting effectiveness and efficiency of analysing stakeholders
integrated foresight management model, Foresight 5 (2)( 2003) 33 45.4 A. Alsan, M. A. Oner, Comparison of national foresight studies by integrated foresight management model, Futures
Institute of Innovation research, 2006.7 TFAMWP (Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group), Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303.8 T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, V. Brummer, Foresight for European Coordination:
Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises, Futures 36 (2004) 45 65.10 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (3)( 2011. 13 A. Salo, T. Ko nno la, M. Hjelt, Responsiveness in foresight management:
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 608 626.16 L a. Costanzo, Strategic foresight in a high-speed environment, Futures 36 (2004
exploring alternative futures of industrial renewal, in: Contributed paper for the 2007 conference on corporate R&d (CONCORD:
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 38
Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: Impact on policy and decision-making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR Fabiana Scapolo a,, Alan L. Porter b c, d, Michael Rader e a European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Brussels, Belgium b R&d for Search Technology, Inc
The second paper by Brummer et al. addresses the challenges of organising future-oriented consultation processes that are promoted at the international level and, in the precise case by the European commission,
Regulatory foresight addresses approaches allowing future fields of regulatory actions to be identified, which could also contribute to new markets.
The view of the author is that Regulatory foresight is an instrument for regulatory bodies to identify, in advance, future challenges for their regulatory regimes,
The conclusions provide a brief critical evaluation of the methods and an identification of requirements for future research.
the future sponsorship of FTAACTIVITIES (and certainly their wider diffusion and expansion) is likely to bemore difficult and places the whole activity under threat.
The logic behind this theme was to recognise the work already done in closely related areas, such as programme evaluation, futures studies, planning,
The last article in this Special issue entitled‘Devising Futures for Universities in a Multilevel Structure: a methodological experiment'by Havas, is a contribution to the Higher education theme.
However, a review of recent works on the future of higher education shows that the approaches implemented present three major shortcomings:(
Two empirical case studies on future TV experiences for/by users Katrien De Moor a b, 1,,
(and even hyped) in the literature is a Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Innovation Foresight User involvement User practices Future TV experiences Interaction A b s T R A c T This paper discusses the need for a shift towards more Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes
IF represents an approach for bringing the future into holistic innovation processes, in which users and other stakeholders are involved systematically to detect future opportunities and risks.
This could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
the IF process calls for future-oriented, continuous interaction with current/anticipated users and a better integration of methods and approaches from different fields, including Foresight, user/market research and human-centred product design.
This paper discusses two empirical studies that closely involved users in the exploration, imagination and creation of future TV experiences.
Study 1 aimed to identify users'specific (future) needs and possible Lead User ideas concerning digital TV (DTV) in Flanders through an online survey (N=11.802 digital TV users.
which focused on‘Future TV experiences, 'consisted of a multi-method research approach in three phases,
that help to provide an understanding of users'daily practices and futures aspirations. It is argued that a better introduction of future anticipation in inclusive innovation processes could enhance the input of users in innovation
and contribute to the detection of potential user/societal needs and possible unexpected forms of use. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jou r nal h o mep ag e: w ww. elsevier. co m/loc ate/fu tu r es 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.009 good example in this respect. Although the principles underlying the open innovation concept have been subjected to critical analyses,
and for identifying future innovation opportunities often remains problematic due to several constraints and limitations, which are discussed briefly in the next section.
One approach that may be effective at enabling the desired inclusive knowledge creation is to use the future as a catalyst for precipitating the collective intelligence of users and stakeholders 10.
notions of the future and anticipation often tend to be introduced poorly or lacking completely. This paper proposes a shift towards more Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes
'IF is a basis for stimulating a future-oriented innovation dialogue that enables different types of users
Through a better introduction of the future based on Foresight theory and practice and through an integration of methods and approaches from other fields, including user/market research
Thereupon, the methodological setup and results from two empirical studies in which current and future users were involved closely in the exploration,
imagination and creation of (future) TV experiences are presented in Section 3. Study 1 focused on the identification of unfulfilled needs and possible Lead User ideas related to interactive digital TV;
Study 2 investigated‘Future TV experiences'.'A multi-method approach was used to stimulate users'imaginative potential.
CTA drew strongly on the inclusivity of broader social constituencies and interaction with current and anticipated future users in Research
For instance, active and continuous user involvement have been said to lead to‘unique and valuable ideas for future development'15, to more‘socially and environmentally friendly technologies',to an increased‘quality of innovations'16
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 40 Although in theory, such inclusive processes aim to strengthen the role and input of users into innovation,
In this paper we argue that this limitation is to an important extent due to the insufficient or even lacking introduction of the future and future anticipation as components into the user-driven knowledge creation process.
Similarly, aspects such as the technological complexity and lack of references to existing products seem to constrain users to think about possible future products.
and possibilities that future technologies might offer 13. Another barrier discussed by Lettl 20 is that of‘not wanting
probable futures and to make a relevant and meaningful contribution. The point that we want to raise in this paper,
little attention is given to unexpected or unanticipated forms of use of a (future) product/technology,
despite the potential impact of unanticipated use on future success or failure (e g.,, in terms of user adoption.
Lead User methods for example, represent a specific category of methods that do include the future as a component
Yet, Lead User input can to some extent help to lower uncertainty regarding possible future needs and markets.
Although it is unknown in the present who the future users of a technology or product will be,
forecast studies allowing to develop anticipatory assumptions with regard to future user behaviour, future needs, expected profiles of adopters, etc.
and roadmapping are used commonly for the identification of technological opportunities and exploration of possible future markets in this respect.
the introduction of the future in inclusive processes aimed at enhancing users'input into the innovation process remains problematic.
and develop visions of the future, current or expected future users are involved rarely actively in this anticipatory process.
An integrated approach towards Innovation Foresight is thus called for. The notion of Innovation Foresight is based on the consideration of different dynamics.
(i) anticipation of the drivers and weak signals of change with the intention of being prepared for whatever might follow from the ongoing and future social, economic and political mayhem with a rich understanding of systems, their history and possible futures,(ii) analysis of different stakeholder perspectives
and other relevant stakeholders from the early stages of a holistic innovation process in view of discovering future opportunities (and risks),
and more specifically current and anticipated future users are consulted not only, but are engaged actively in the process and share their‘future'experiences and aspirations in an interactive and iterative way.
IF introduces an inclusive vision development process with longer-term perspective and a strong future component.
Such an inclusive approach requires participation and involvement of different stakeholders on equal terms, hereby empowering users as key stakeholders
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 41 IF aims to go beyond the‘here and now 'and is situated at the intersection of Foresight, user/market research and humancenntre product design.
We now zoom in on two empirical studies in which current users have been involved closely in the exploration, imagination and creation of (future) TV experiences.
Both studies have sought to engage current users at an early stage in the exploration and identification of possible future development ideas
a‘Lead User'approach for digital TV Study 1 aims to identify users'specific (future) needs concerning interactive digital TV in Flanders.
namely the identification of unfulfilled needs and possible Lead User ideas related to the (future) use of DTV. 3. 1. 1. Methodological approach An online survey was set up
and behaviour and to identify users'specific (future) needs concerning digital TV. A large group of 46.000 Flemish DTV-users as key stakeholders were invited to fill in the survey by email.
%For the identification of these future user needs, we adopted an approach based on the first steps of Lead User-market research 23,25 and inspired by the idea of‘crowdsourcing'26.
In crowdsourcing on the other hand, an unsolved problem or question in this case what are (future) needs concerning digital TV is submitted to a large‘crowd'of users, drawing on knowledge that is available in the crowd.
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 42 survey was taken (end 2009) in percentage of Flemish digital TV-viewers.
A visual EPG that synchronises with other devices, ratings and recommendations of content and community-features is considered also a Lead User-idea with an estimated future potential of 1/3
First of all, user surveys are used traditionally rarely at the early, exploratory stages of the development process and with the purpose of detecting future needs or opportunities.
whereas In traditional market research, the involvement of current or future users is often still cross-sectional and not based on a continuous interaction 7. In this respect,
the gathered ideas serve as bottom-up input for further exploration of future innovation opportunities for DTV in a natural research setting (through the Living Lab approach).
future TV experiences Study 2 was set up in collaboration with a‘Philips Consumer Lifestyle'group2 and explicitly focused on‘Future connected TV experiences'.
'Current and prospective users (i e.,, TV viewers) were involved actively. Television is one of the most widely adopted and domesticated media,
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 43 the TV AUDIENCE, this simplicity is however under pressure. As a result, it is crucial to reflect on current and future viewing practices
and on how the TV of the future should address these evolving practices in order to stay close to the users.
In this study, we therefore involved different types of users in an inclusive process to reflect on possible, probable and/or preferable‘TV experiences of the future (initial time horizon:
2030). ) 3. 2. 1. Methodological approach A multi-method approach was used to stimulate users'creative and imaginative potential in the IF process.
and asked for their expectations concerning the future of TV and their vision on the future TV user and TV SET of the future.
2). Each of these types was divided further into a positive and negative profile, based on current viewing practices, positive or negative attitudes and behavioural intentions towards current/future viewing possibilities.
concrete representations of target users'that are used for conveying information about a (future) user population in product design and innovation processes 27.
the aim was to explore possible future viewing behaviour and viewer profiles through the involvement of real users in a cultural probing exercise.
imagine and create‘future TV experience'-scenarios. The probe consisted of seven small assignments/questions, one for each day in a week.
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 44 thoughts, comments and ideas (see Fig. 1 on the right.
On the 7th and last day, the participants sent a postcard to the future describing their ideal future TV experience
and context. 3. 2. 2. Results 3. 2. 2. 1. Phase 1. The main aspects and trends mentioned by the experts in phase 1 in their vision on future TV experiences
and TV SET of the future viewer, included the increasing convergence between TV, PC and the internet, the shift from 3-dimensional television (3d TV) to holographic TV and 4-dimensional television (4d TV), in
which even more immersive TV experiences will be created by adding additional sensory effects to television viewing and the TV SET of the future.
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 45 Fig. 2. Schematic overview of the developed positive and negative personas.
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 46 in it, but considers herself as a non-expert.
and simplicity should still be key in the development of future TV experiences. This was the case for all 6 personas, both the positive and the negative personas.
For the internet and connected TV personas finally, the biggest difference that was found between the positive and negative persona was that the former is ready and eager to experience future TV now and that the latter emphasises the importance of gradual change
future TV should be multi-screen, flexible and mobile according to the participants. Especially for TV connected to the internet, this multi-screen aspect was found to be of crucial importance.
The third key aspect in our personas'expectations and visualisations of future TV experiences referred to the social character of the medium:
and co-experiences (as opposed to future TV a personalised and individual). This idea of shared TV was evaluated not as very innovative,
users as well as other relevant stakeholders were involved in an inclusive and future-oriented process, based on a combination of traditional and more creative methods.
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 47 stimulate users'imagination and to empower them to reflect on possible and preferable future developments in the context of TV experiences.
Such approaches can help to collect anticipatory intelligence, e g.,, through the identification of future innovation opportunities or threats and through the detection of explicit as well as more latent future needs.
This intelligence can than serve as relevant input for decision making and strategic planning within the innovation trajectory.
However, in future anticipation and visioning as part of such trajectories, the actual role and contribution of users is limited often
and constrained as the introduction of the future as a component is often insufficient or even completely lacking in traditional user research.
Lead User methods form an exception in this respect as they involve users with clear and distinct future needs.
and stimulate those users that are traditionally not behind the steering wheel to voice their expectations, needs, visions with regards to possible, preferable and probable futures.
both very advanced users as well as non-expert users are capable of reflecting on possible future developments, their possible impact,
and needs with regard to future TV experiences, implying that it is insufficient to only rely on expert users.
and limitations to user involvement in the earliest innovation phases and the poor or even entirely lacking introduction of the future as component in traditional user innovation research,
It represents an approach for bringing the future into inclusive innovation processes in a more systematic and comprehensive way, based on Foresight theory and practice and through integrating methods and tools from Foresight, traditional user/market research and human-centred
and anticipate possible future developments, needs, expectations,..IF aims to enhance users'input to and their influence on the inclusive knowledge creation process.
Future research should focus on the development of a comprehensive classification and integration of methods that are relevant for IF purposes,
Such a classification could be a first step towards an integrated framework comprising different ways to introduce the future
Appendix A. Supplementary data Supplementary material related to this article can be found, in the online version, at http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.009.
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2010) 279 291.4 P. Warnke, G. Heimeriks, Technology foresight as innovation policy instrument:
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 48 7 L. Haddon, E. Mante, B. Sapio, K.-H. Kommonen, L. Fortunati, A e. Kant
Proceedings Participatory Design Conference, 2008, pp. 186 189.14 J. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technological forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 268
Challenges of user involvement in future technology analysis, Science and Public policy 37 (2010) 51 61.20 C. Lettl, User involvement competence for radical innovation, Journal of Engineering and Technology management
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 49
The roles of fta in improving performance measurement systems to enable alignment between business strategy and operations: Insights from three practical cases Sidnei Vieira Marinho a,,
despite the awareness that both researchers and executives have that organisational performance is linked directly to an alignment between Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 A r T I C L E I N F O
Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jo u rn al ho m epag e: ww w. els evier. c o m/lo cat e/fu tu res http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures
. 2014.01.015 0016-3287/2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. endogenous variables (strategy, structure and processes) and exogenous ones (e g. environmental uncertainty and technology).
SWOT analyses provide the foundations for defining alternative futures. The Global Business Network (GBN) method enables an assessment of the resources
and competencies needed in relation to the trends that ought to mould the future of the business.
The combination of SWOT and GBN stimulates joint reflections on the future in terms of scenarios i e. the way in which strengths and weaknesses, both internal (firm) and external environment, including value chain),
These actions S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 51 together represent the strategy translated into operational actions,
C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 52 into account the availability and facility to access information,
S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 53 system followed the designed phases and steps.
In this context, the proposed system was implemented to support a rethinking of the institution, its values and its development into a desired future,
S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 54 attending the communities which depend on such social projects.
The analysis of strengths and weaknesses (SWOT analysis) stimulated an important reflection in terms of the future via the application of the Global Business Network scenarios.
when imagining and preparing for the future, it was possible to see that the institution was not able to shape a process to build a shared understanding of stakeholders'views as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes.
These are critical to enable it to become flexible S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 55 and adaptive,
and strategy to a long-term vision of where the organisation wants to position itself within possible alternative futures;
and stakeholders'views of what the future might entail or where they see themselves both individually and collectively.
and (iii) a common vision to be pursued across the system based upon the mutual positioning of value chain actors in relation to the future.
and strategy to a long-term common vision of where the organisation wants to position itself within possible alternative futures.
and stakeholders'views of what the future might entail. Also, it considers where all actors see themselves both individually and collectively within these alternative futures.
The link between learning and strategy around a common vision in the value chain enables trust to be developed across the system through participatory instruments.
However, such common vision to be pursued across the system should be based upon the mutual positioning of value chain actors in relation to future needs 52.
It does so by providing spaces where actors can come together to shape equally likely paths into the future through a collective articulation of visions
C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 56 Foresight also supports the firm's and its stakeholders'ability to develop a joint vision
and define where each one would like to position itself within a range of likely futures
and its partners in the value chain considering alternative futures and building upon increased participation in decision making processes for applications such as:
S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 57 intelligence systems, direction setting, priority setting, strategy formulation, marketing, organisational change,
Such an application of the system in practice shall be subject of future work to be developed by the authors. 5. Conclusions The system proposed was developed based on perceived gaps in the process of implementing the BSC The guiding objective was to combine characteristics inherent to PMS, such as participation
and refine such a renewed system the authors propose its application in practice as an avenue for future research.
33,58 60,67 Performance Prism 33 Independent variables (nonfinancial ones) are identified incorrectly as primary drivers of future stakeholder satisfaction 58 Quality Function Deployment (QFD) 58 There is no criteria
) S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 58 Annex 2. Casual relationship diagram.
S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 59 5 S v. Marinho, L. M. S. Campos, P m. Selig, Critical analysis
An Appraisal and Agenda for Future research, Handbook of Strategic management, Blackwell Business, Malden, Massachusetts, 2001, pp. 602 626.12 R. Kaplan, D. Norton, Building a Strategy-Focused
and Performance Measurements to Chart Your Company's Future, American Management Association, New york, 1993.22 U s. Bititci, A s. Carrie, L. Mcdevitt, Integrated performance measurement systems:
past, present and future, in: Performance Measurement Conference, Cambridge, 2000.31 S. Tonchia, Linking performance measurement system to strategic and organizational choices, International Journal of Business Performance 2 (2000) 15
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning
2005.46 M. Boden, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Konnola, Facing the Future: Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010, http://dx. doi. org/10.2791/4223eur 24364 EN, ISSN 1018
49 T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, E. Vilkkumaa, Facing the future:
Accelerating and Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities, Institute for Alternative futures, Alexandria, VA, 2009.51 C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la, Global foresight:
lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on manufacturing systems, Futures (2014)( forthcoming. 52 M. G. Lipe, S. E. Salterio, The balanced scorecard:
S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 60 63 H. Akkermans, K. E. van Oorschot, Developing a balanced scorecard
Research and Action, Boston, MA, 17 19,july 2002), pp. 85 92.68 A. Fink, B. Marr, A. Siebe, J. P. Kuhle, The future scorecard:
S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 61
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