future(s)

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The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Petra Schaper-Rinkel AIT Austrian Institute of technology, Donau-City-Straße 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria a r t i c l e

but rather on the longer-term interplay between the organizational settings in both countries and the future-oriented nanotechnology analysis. In countries such as the US and Germany, where FTA on nanotechnology were already underway in the late 1980s,

the question of future-oriented governance of emerging technologies gets raised repeatedly. A decade ago, the question addressed how to maximize the contribution of such technologies to economic innovation with the intention of enhancing competitiveness 1, 2. Today,

the US and Germany started assessing the status and future trends in the area of nanotechnology early on 5,

but rather also in processes such as technology forecasting, technology assessment and participatory future-oriented studies, involving scientists, policymakers, media,

What are the contributions of the distinct future-oriented approaches to the development of nanotechnology governance?

and realizing future opportunities and identifying and reacting to potential risks. At the turn of the century, nanotechnology was discussed mainly with regard to content (future applications), not with regard to the future decision-making processes and the participation of stakeholders,

which is central to governance. Governance is broader than government covering non-state actors, and is characterized by continuing interactions among network members 15.

Today, future governance is seen as crucial for the development of nanotechnology 16.2.2. Approaching the future of nanotechnology:

the scope of future-oriented technology analysis Several distinct approaches toward anticipating the longer-term implications of nanotechnology have been taken.

Examples of these participatory and future-oriented activities include consensus conferences in the US 24 and a consumer conference in Germany 25.

In addition, the term also encompasses new participatory types of future-oriented nanotechnology-related studies and activities, such as dialogues on ethical, legal and social aspects cf. 31.

The early individual vision of Eric Drexler, who envisioned a distant future vision of molecular manufacturing in the late 1980s,

The resulting report most explicitly related to future orientation was the IWGN workshop report on nanotechnology research directions

The small section of the IWGN workshop report on the social impact of nanotechnology contains a vision on the future

represented a future-oriented relation of technology policy and society which can be characterized as a model of linear and science-driven innovation.

and public perceptions about its risks and future benefits has been analyzed extensively 40,41 and the need for risk governance has been expressed 42.

entitled Nanotechnology research Directions for Societal Needs in 2020 3 combined retrospective and future-oriented analysis documenting developments in nanotechnology from 2000 to 2010

and envisioned the future of the US National Nanotechnology Initiative 16. He distinguishes two foundational phases, called Nano 1 and Nano 2. The first foundational phase (2001 2010),

The related future governance will be oriented on a user-centric ecosystem which is expected to become increasingly participatory

The core concept for the future development is innovative and responsible governance of nanotechnology 45, a concept rooted in 5 The NNI itself is not a funding program.

but rather a coordination of future-oriented activities that allowed the departments involved to develop their own individual agendas

The term technology foresight has not been used with regard to future-oriented activities in nanotechnology, but considering the nano-related FTA of the last fifteen years,

the NNI uses advanced strategic planning methods and tools and acts as a kind of umbrella organization for pooling heterogeneous future-oriented activities.

and disciplines. 3. 2. Germany FTA for addressing the future of existing areas of strength In Germany,

to monitor future technology trends that could be the subject of funding programs in the future. These reports are referred to as technology analyses

and include both assessment and future-oriented parts, but focus predominantly on economic issues and impacts.

describing future applications, analyzing research deficits, and making policy recommendations. From1988 to 1998, the technology field wasmonitored by analyzing the literature,

and to assess the market potentials of future nano-applications. In 1998 these early monitoring and forecasting activities were followed by an initiative of the BMBF to establish the first six national nanotechnology competence centers with annual funding.

In 2003, the BMBF developed a national strategy for future funding and support of nanotechnology.

rather than future strategies) without mentioning past or future cooperation and collaboration among ministries and agencies of the federal government 52.

A concept for future governance of nanotechnology is also not part of the action plan. The work of the Nanokommission is mentioned

Unlike in the US, the BMBF does not include the input from the social sciences in setting a future agenda.

In Germany other ministries and government agencies have their own agendas with regard to the future governance of nanotechnology without being part of a common board where strategies are compared and aligned.

The forward-looking activities of the US nanotechnology initiative have had a major impact on the future orientation within the US political realm with regard to nanotechnology governance

and oriented to revolutionary future technologies. The early study exercises provided justification for a policy that was under consideration (symbolic function) and the results lead to policy conceptualization,

In both countries, early FTA envisioned innovative future nanotechnologies but did not provide guidance either for future innovative governance or for using nanotechnology for disruptive innovation to address grand societal challenges.

The implication for future emerging technologies is that the methodology and practice of FTA should consider the governance dimension from the beginning by acknowledging that monitoring

and identifying a broad field implicitly includes the shaping of the field and its governance structure by including

Coherent and powerful statements of what the future governance of nanotechnology should aim to accomplish can be seen as a precondition that could potentially lead to binding prioritization of the goals to be reached by using nanotechnologies.

While early FTA involved experts almost exclusively fromscience and industry and governmental bodies, current future-oriented activities involve at least in the US experts from social science and humanities.

Future oriented activities that are linked not directly with decision making in policy such as public engagement activities organized by researchers in the US

The updated nanotechnology vision in the US 3 is envisioning the involvement of a broader range of experts and stakeholders and addresses societal challenges through a sophisticated concept of future nanotechnology governance.

Values (2007) 196 220.12 A. Nordmann, No future for nanotechnology? Historical development vs. global expansion, in:

Zur politischen Ökonomie der Nanotechnologie, Prokla 36 (2006) 473 496.14 M. Kaiser, S. Maasen, M. Kurath, C. Rehmann-Sutter, Governing future technologies.

, C. Peterson, G. Pergamit, Unbounding the Future: The Nanotechnology Revolution, William Morrow, New york, 1991.19 G. Bachmann, Technologieanalyse Nanotechnologie, VDI Technologieanalyse, in:

future directions, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barré (Eds. Future-oriented technology analysis, Springer, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 163 169.28 A. Eerola,

a knowledge-based perspective, Futures 43 (2011) 265 278.29 M. Rader, A l. Porter, Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study types, in:

I. Miles, M. Mogee, A. Salo, F. Scapolo, R. Smits, W. Thissen, Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods, Technol.

Chang. 71 (2004) 287 303.31 A. Rip, Futures of ELSA, Sci. Soc. Ser. Converg. Res. 10 (2009) 666 670.32 A l. Porter, W. B. Ashton, United states case study, in:

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Envisioning structural transformation lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation Elna Schirrmeister, Philine Warnke Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany a r t

Experiences from a foresight project exploring future innovation patterns (www. innovation-futures. org) are discussed. Four specific features were applied

We argue that all four innovative methodological features contributed in a specific way to opening up new perspectives on the future of innovation

When exploring alternative futures, many foresight exercises do not look into paradigm shifts but rather tackle different variants of the established system view.

Future innovation landscapes may function according to a different logic all together. The INFU (Innovation Futures) foresight project was set out to explore such future innovation landscapes.

INFU was financed by the European commission in the 7th Framework programme Area Social sciences and Humanities (SSH. It was carried out between 2009 and 2012 by the Austrian Institute of technology AIT (Austria), Fraunhofer ISI (Germany), Z punkt (Germany) and Solutioning Design Scenarios SDS (Belgium.

and print media 2. stepwise clustering of the findings into visions in interaction with innovation actors through interviews and an online survey 3. development and assessment of scenarios of future innovation landscapes 4. generation of policy implications.

Section 4 presents conclusions for future applications of transformative foresight. 2. INFU methodology The INFU project envisioned

and discussed possible future innovation landscapes together with innovation actors from a wide range of backgrounds. In order to do justice to the transformative nature of the subject

but also by the distinct steps for building the scenarios or visions of the future. In the case of scenario building the model-based approach is in widespread use in Europe,

Both these 1 www. innovation-futures. org. 454 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 approaches can be termed inductive

The aim is to explore the future of innovation in a rigorous inductive approach with a strong emphasis on open collection of phenomena

They can sometimes hint about future changes. Their visibility is characteristically low 22 p. 4. The definition included uptake of newways of doing innovation in fields where they were previously unknown

For each signal of change a possible impact on the future of innovation was estimated in an intuitive manner by the project members

but also in the weak signal collection available on the internet. 2 The movie is available at www. innovation-futures. org. 455 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change

Story-scripts combine pictures and drawings for visualising a fictive future situation. The photographic image facilitates immersion into a possible situation in the future,

They were subcontracted by the INFU consortium to further develop the vision of a future innovation landscape without any constraint as to the visioning approach.

emblematic images (e g. for widespread creativity, Fig. 8) abstract schemes (e g. for social experimentation, Fig. 9) stories fromthe future ranging from short day in a life segments (e g. for deliberative innovation

, Fig. 10) to full scale descriptions of future events and actions archetypes of persons, organisations or infrastructure. 3. INFU findings and lessons learnt 3. 1. The future of innovation preliminary insights The findings indicate interesting changes in the mediation between innovation demand

and innovation supply 29. A wide variety of hybrid value creation modelswith novel configurations of innovation actors emerged.

Germany Workshop with stakeholders of future innovation camps in Berlin 6. Ubiquitous Innovation (including dark sides) Rolandas Strazdas Professor,

and instruments to enable this kind of co-creation of solutions seems a crucial future challenge. 3) Motivation:

However, it is to be noted that among the around 80 actors involved directly in the INFU futures dialogue

and contributed in a specific way to opening up newperspectives for thinking about the future of innovation and potential structural transformation of innovation processes:

Themajority of these responses indicate that the project succeeded in opening up new perspectives for exploring the future of innovation with relevance for strategic conversations among various actor groups.

Manag. 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.2 R. Miller, Futures literacy: a hybrid strategic scenario method, Futures 39 (4)( 2007) 341 362.3 European commission, Communication from the Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions

Europe 2020, Flagship Initiative Innovation Union, Brussels, 2010.4 P. Warnke, Implementing transformative innovation policy priorities, in:

. 1), www. innovation-futures. org 2010.17 D. Mietzner, in: Strategische Vorausschau und Szenarioanalysen: Methodenevaluation und neue Ansätze, Gabler, Wiesbaden, 2009.18 M. B. A. van Asselt, S. A. van't Klooster, P. W. F. van Notten

Chang. 72 (2005) 161 173.22 E. Hiltunen, The future sign and its three dimensions, Futures 40 (3)( 2008) 247 260.23 F. Jégou, K

and contrasted visions (deliverable D 2. 3), www. innovation-futures. org 2010.24 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke, K.-H. Leitner,

Innovation futures scripts nodes of change in innovation patterns emerging from the explorative dialogue on the 19 INFU visions (deliverable D 3. 1), www. innovation-futures. org

5. 1), www. innovation-futures. org 2011.30 K.-H. Leitner, W. Rhomberg, P. Warnke, E. Schirrmeister, A. Kasztler, INFU Policy strategy Report

Ansoff Today, Futures 44 (2012) 198 205.32 B. Ralston, W. Ralston, The Scenario planning Handbook: A Practitioner's Guide to Developing and Using Scenarios to Direct Strategy in Today's Uncertain Times, Thomson Southwestern, Mason, Ohio, 2006.33 J. Buur, B. Matthews, Participatory innovation, Int

As a mechanical engineer she has conducted various foresight projects on future prospects for industrial production and on research and innovation patterns on behalf of government authorities

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Future-oriented Innovation Foresight Grand challenges Disruptive Transformations When circumstances become more turbulent it is often the case that an era is regarded retrospectively as one of calm

lists available at Sciverse Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change with these futures. While it is the task of futurists in general to anticipate,

Studies have indicated that the principal applications of FTA have been in supporting priority-setting and in the analysis and articulation of the potential of future technologies 9

and long-term erosion of excellence as new entrants and hence potential future research leaders are excluded to a greater degree.

also cited as Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group) Technology Futures analysis: Towards integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303 2004.2 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU US

Manage. 20 (3)( 2008) 267 269.6 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, F. Scapolo, From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis, Futures 43 (3

foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy, Futures 43 (3)( 2011) 243 251.10 L. Georghiou, Europe's research system must change, Nature 452 (2008) 935

T. Konnola, P. Warnke, R. Barré, S. Kuhlmann, Tailoring foresight to field specificities, Futures 43 (April 3 2011) 232 242.14 M. Weber

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The Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jou r nal h o mep ag e:

''(IF) as an approach for bringing the future into innovation processes. For this purpose they combine Foresight with elements from market research innovation management and human-centred product design.

and other stakeholders can systematically be involved in exploring future opportunities and risks. Marinho and Cagnin propose the inclusion of elements of FTA PROCESSES in strategic management with the explicit aim of‘‘improving Performance Measurement Systems''.

''Based on three case-studies, they conclude that a networked approach to future-oriented activities strengthens the results of FTAS

and suggest that networked foresight is‘‘the logical next generation of futures research.''''The time it has taken to edit

but nevertheless interconnected fabric of how to use the future to address technological research, investment, sectoral and societal choices?

how to think about the future (epistemology), but even worse a difficulty in defining and connecting‘the future'as an aspect of reality (ontology) with its impact on choice.

As a result the foresight voices often appeared internally contradictory, starting out from the premise of the unknowability of the future

and ending up with a version of the expert's best guess regarding the best bet for winning the industrial or technological race ten or so years on.

While the technology assessment crowd and the small but regularly present business oriented strategy practitioners voiced worries about the‘‘scientific''legitimacy and practical effectiveness of the at times open ended and exploratory nature of thinking about the future.

as when an orchestra tunes up to finding Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 2 shared tones and interconnected,

and deterministic roadmapping approaches to the future gave way to a growing awareness and acceptance of other methods,

and relate the wide range of different approaches to thinking about the future within an overarching framework.

including the specific subset that consists of conscious human efforts to use the imaginary future for making decisions.

Taking the proposition that the future only exists as anticipation as a starting point and that efforts to‘‘use the future''can be understood better by considering the different nature

and organization of anticipatory systems seems to offer shared sense-making framework for the FTA and Foresight communities.

across far-flung and diverse communities, about the theory and practice of using the future. There is no assurance that this particular conversation will fully address the lack of a shared sense-making framework made evident by the FTA PROCESSES

when attempting to use the future while at the same time helping to facilitate more sharing of knowledge across the disparate communities that use the future.

Hopefully the FTA and Foresight communities will be able to continue to build humanity's capacity to understand the future through conferences such as FTA,

generating more papers like those found in this Special issue, and provoking further conversations on to use the future in ways that take advantage of humanity's many anticipatory systems. 1 R. Miller, R. Poli, P. Rossel, The discipline of anticipation, forthcoming, UNESCO.

Also: http://www. projectanticipation. org/./Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 3 Elisabetta Marinelli Phd*Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Knowledge for Growth Unit (Kfg), European commission DG

JRC, C/Inca Garcilaso 3, E-41092 Sevilla, Spain E-mail address: Elisabetta. Marinelli@ec. europa. eu*Corresponding author.

philine. warnke@ait. ac. at Available online 21 january 2014 Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 4

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and academics who are studying foresight processes need to simplify Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jou r nal h o mep ag e: w ww. elsevier. co m/loc ate/fu tu r es http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.013 0016

future-intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions'.

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 6 One of the most comprehensive and acknowledged studies of national styles in management, decision making

such as Futures Workshops, Citizens Panels and Conferences/Workshops. In high power distance societies, we could expect expertise and evidence based foresight methodologies,

and thus on how the future is perceived. According to Hofstede, the uncertainty avoidance dimension impacts the question of‘‘how a society reacts on the fact that time only runs one way

and that the future is unknown: whether it tries to control the future or to let it happen''19.

In countries such as France and Japan with a high uncertainty avoidance indexes, time and the future are considered to be something that should be mastered and exploited.

In contrast, in countries with lower uncertainty Table 1 Hofstede's cultural dimensions 19. Dimension Description Power distance The extent to

which individuals are integrated into groups P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 7 avoidance, such as Denmark or Great britain,

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 8 2. 3. Varieties of capitalism:

Futures workshops and citizens panels are examples of foresight methods that have high interaction content. Finally

such as futures workshops, are prominent in Northwest Europe and North america and less prominent in Eastern europe and Asia.

L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 9 common use in South Europe and South america and totally absent among the top 10 foresight methods in Northwest Europe and North america.

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 10‘Denmark has had never strong traditions for basing political decisions on accessible knowledge as opposed to Sweden, for instance.

such as futures workshops, citizen panels and consensus conferences. It must also be noted that together with the other Nordic countries,

the Danish research Council for Research policy recommended that the Ministry for Science consider utilising futures studies in affiliation with its strategy processes 28.

L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 11 the new Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.

Another example is the widespread use of futures workshops and citizens panels in municipal and regional planning.

L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 12 as the capability of Danish research institutions to meet these needs.

On behalf of DASTI, the OECD's International Futures Programme Unit carried out an international horizon scan, which led to 125 important trends and grand challenges.

and reduced the 42 proposals to 31 proposals for future strategic research themes. The third phase included the completion of the final catalogue.

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 13 4. 3. Discussion of the cases Neither Research2015 nor the Globalisation Strategy was recognised by their key

but the most important methodological Box 1. Final priorities in the Research2015 catalogue 34 Energy, climate and the environment Energy systems of the future Future climate and climate adaption Competitive environment

food and bio products Intelligent solutions for society Production systems of the future Strategic growth technologies Health and prevention From basic research to individualised treatment Chronic disease between prevention and rehabilitation

Innovation and competitiveness Denmark's competitiveness Innovation The public sector of the future Knowledge and education Education, learning and competence development What works?

lives P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 14 elements, such as workshops, hearings,

Theme Budgets in millions of DKKS 2009 2010 Energy, climate and environment Energy systems of the future 190 455 Future climate and climate adaptation 43 0 Climate

in interaction with env. factors 0 19 Innovation and competitiveness 0 10 The public sector of the future 0 15 Knowledge and education What works?

L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 15 5. Conclusion and perspectives This paper aims to contribute to the discussion of national cultures'effects on national foresight exercises.

impacts and implications on policy-making, Futures 43 (April 3))(2011) 252 264.3 A. Havas, D. Schartinger, M. Weber, The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making:

future directions, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds. Future-oriented technology analysis.

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 16 24 P. A. Hall, D. Soskice, An introduction to varieties

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 17

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Evaluating local and national public foresight studies from a user perspective Nicole Rijkens-Klomp a b,,*Patrick Van der Duin c, d a International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands b Pantopicon

BX Delft, The netherlands 1. Introduction Government organisations design policies for a future full of uncertainties. Policy-makers who focus on long-term policy issues can use foresight methods during strategic policy-making processes to arrive at a better understanding of the future and its uncertainties

and to design policies that are more future-proof. Knowledge about the future can be gathered,

structured and applied in different ways by using various foresight methods (see, among other things, 1). In this article,

we focus on the use of foresight methods, with special attention to scenario analysis, which involves the exploration of alternative images of the future,

including the pathways that describe and explain how events and developments in the contextual environment are connected.

In addition, scenario analysis is the systematic analysis of a variety of uncertainties combined into distinctive stories about the future (see 2). In this article

We are interested in finding out (1) how scenario analysis as a Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jo u rn al ho m epag e: ww w. els evier. c o m/lo cat e/fu tu res 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

the use of the scenario analysis method makes policy-makers more aware of the future, future changes and the policy implications,

P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 19 The Overschie case involves the development and use of a qualitative scenario analysis as a strategic building block for a new strategic coalition

and workshops to increase awareness about possible future changes. We used an independent evaluation that was conducted in 2010 by the University of Twente 21, based on interviews with 21 politicians and civil servants and a document analysis. Furthermore,

In all cases, the scope of the analysis was the future of a territorial entity,

Both national studies were aimed predominantly at determining how policy-makers link studies of the future to policy development.

which futures research was applied to policy and organisational development. This research approach is different from the research at the local level;

in the local studies, the evaluation of futures research methods was considered predominantly in view of how they are used for

because in both analyses, our aim was to ascertain how futures studies methods are being used in practice by governments.

N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 20 3. 1. How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of the scenario analysis method?

most civil servants were also familiar with‘future essays',quantitative futures research, the Delphi method, game simulations and future workshops.

because some of them believe that the government can approach the future in a predictive manner,

and thereby its future, to a considerable extent. This was illustrated in the‘organizational foresight'study, where only four out of nine studies were based on scenario thinking.

in the different studies of the future in the‘organizational foresight'study, a more equal balance was found between expected, possible,

and desirable futures, which was why both exploratory and predictive approaches to the future were adopted. Especially at the national level, we see that foresight methods are performed in a participatory way,

The two national studies show that civil servants are increasingly knowledgeable about futures research methods, improving their ability to assess the quality of futures research projects that have been outsourced.

On the whole, we conclude that, at a national level, people are more familiar and experienced with foresight for policymakkin purposes than at the local level.

In all local cases, the main ambition was to use scenarios to raise awareness of a changing future

'such as the dynamics of change, future challenges, risks and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses of the current system, visions for change,

The national policy foresight'study showed that studies of the future can be a source of inspiration for the development of new policy ideas, for agenda setting (i e.,

whereas the focus tends to be more on identifying possible future issues at the local level.

raising awareness about the future (a more generic application: to gain a better understanding of the future of the issue at stake, the degrees of uncertainty involved, the coherence of future developments, the speed of change of developments,

etc. setting the agenda (agenda setting phase): to put (new) policy issues on the policy agenda designing policies (policy preparation phase:

to gain insight into how future-proof and future-oriented policies really are evaluating policies (after implementation:

P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 21 When the main motive for using foresight methods is not necessarily a desire to realise a concrete policy end-product (such as an agenda, vision or strategy),

all motives have to do with learning about the future, at an individual and group level 13,14. 3. 3. How are used the results in the strategic policy process, in which phase?

Also, in the‘organizational foresight'study, the various foresight studies of the future carried out by the government departments are designed to form initial ideas and opinions about organisational change.

futures research appears to play a role in the early phases of the strategic policy processes, agenda setting and (in part) policy preparation.

The use of foresight studies stimulated mutual learning processes, allowing participants to learn from each other's perspectives on the future and providing them with a common foundation for future policies.

foresight methods stimulate the user to take future developments and changes into account in a structured way.

future-related assumptions are made in an intuitive and opaque way. By using more systematic methods,

Learning to think in terms of alternative futures was seen as an eye-opener, especially at the local level. In the past, some local policy-makers experienced a tendency among politicians to underpin policies by most likely scenarios.

Finally, in all the local case studies, the policy-makers indicated that future exploration methods were used in a suboptimal fashion.

In retrospect, they felt that insights from future analyses could be connected better to and embedded in on-going policy development processes.

For example, combining insights from a future analysis with the development of a policy vision and various strategies was seen as a sluggish process.

P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 22 flexibility of strategies, which was not how they were applied in most case studies (with the exception of The hague), because of a lack of time or expertise.

Some policy-makers found it difficult to assess the quality of the sources of information regarding future developments.

Especially when policy-makers are confronted with various sources of information that are contradictory in terms of the future developments they describe,

and/or applying the future analysis, by introducing the theoretical background of the method and/or by delivering content for the foresight analysis. One of the lessons learnt with respect to external assistance was that,

policy-makers indicated they consider the timing of a future study to be a crucial success factor

The optimal timing is related to the reason for conducting a future study. If it is to increase awareness about the future

and inspire agenda-setting, the timing of the scenarios will be compared different to a situation where the motive is to test policies by means of scenarios (the latter will take place at a later stage in the policy process).

''As was highlighted in the analysis of the Stuurgroep Toekomstonderzoek (Steering committee Future research) 27, foresight studies work better when combined with policy processes rather than as a stand-alone process.

N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 23 way. Policy-makers were disappointed as a result of this,

because it conflicted with the widely held belief that futures research methods are instruments that speed up the development new strategic policies.

and cultural embedding Another barrier has to do with the level of embedding of future-oriented thinking and acting.

and the insights generated by future analyses are integrated into the various strategic levels and sectoral departments of their organisation.

The results of the analysis of local level foresight processes make it clear that policy-makers struggle with implementing future-oriented thinking and acting within the current organisational structures.

They felt that the ambition of exploring the future in an integrated way could conflict with existing organisational structures

For instance, possible future economic issues can be related to social and technological issues, while (local and national) governments are organised often along these thematic pillars.

This makes it difficult for policy-makers from different government organisations to relate the results of studies of the future to decision-making and policy development,

to embed the paradigm of future-oriented policy-making successfully within their organisations, they would need to address

Policy-makers feel that future-oriented policy-making can thrive in a culture where openness and innovation are encouraged

They also had the impression that future-oriented policy-making is by its nature a kind of well-informed policy-making.

local policy-makers mentioned that managerial commitment from the start of a future exploration trajectory is a crucial success factor

although the futures research processes are relatively transparent and rational in nature, the organisational embeddedness and (subsequent) use is not a fully rational process

Although many Ministers were indeed quite fond of futures studies, Members of Parliament often argued that they should focus much more on short-term matters.

To summarise, at both the national and local levels, the environment in which futures studies are conducted is complex,

the impact of a future study depends to a significant degree on who is Involved with regard to the initiator and coordinator,

the success of the future analysis depends partly on their level of leadership. Policy-makers also indicate that leadership depends on the degree of confidence among colleagues with regard to the future analyses (for example because of the proven quality of their work;

this success factor not only applies to the roles of the initiator and the coordinator, but also to the developers of the future study.

It was indicated also, however, that leadership is N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 24 a fragile factor.

If this‘foresight champion',i e.,, the initiator and main developer of the foresight study, should decide to leave the organisation,

To summarise, at both the national and local levels, a kind of‘future champion'plays an important role in the development of the foresight process and its application to strategic policy-making.

However, it would appear that these‘future champions'are easier to find at the national than at the local level. 4. Synthesis

and conclusions We can conclude that the use of futures studies methods at the local and the national level differ,

thinking in terms of alternative futures and taking longer-run uncertainties into account is a rather new area of expertise that is still not broadly incorporated into the workings and cultures of local policy organisations.

the future-oriented way of thinking and acting has been embedded on a wider scale at the different levels mentioned above.

An important challenge has to do with connecting the outcomes of futures research to decision-making processes. Da Costa et al. 25 also conclude that foresight results can only be taken on board by policy-makers

References 1 A. Hines, B. Bishop, Thinking About the Future. Guidelines for Strategic foresight, Social Technologies, LLC, Washington, 2006.2 K. van der Heijden, Scenarios:

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