FTA and equity: New approaches to governance Cristiano Cagnin a,,*Denis Loveridge b, Ozcan Saritas b adg Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Calle Inca Garcilaso 3, 41092 Seville, Spain
Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures journal homepage: www. elsevier. com/locate/futures 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.006 A short overview of the development of the present situation regarding governance sets the scene for the more detailed analysis of the relationship between governance
and each of three pillars mentioned above. The later discussion intends to enable the FTA COMMUNITY to reflect on how FTA ACTIVITIES can support the move towards more democratic societies and the potential impacts of FTA in governance.
and glocalisation and to the need to anticipate the future needs to manage risk and regulation.
exposing the hidden social consequences and concerns for the future of advances, real and imagined, of S&t though in very different ways.
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 280 both been disbanded under changing political regimes. Most recently, foresight studies have stormed onto the scene to become a global phenomenon.
a series of diagrams are used later to illustrate some of the issues that will need to be incorporated into any future mantra of governance and the evolution of S&t.
in ways that are responsive to the present and future needs of society. Sheng 9 claims that there are eight major characteristics to good governance:
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 281 As a counter-argument, Olsen 11 suggests that the process of governance may not always produce a precise and stable policy outcome.
-Create greater public awareness and understanding of new science and future technologies. -Improve the anticipation of
what are likely to be desirable uses of anticipated future technologies through public participation. -Avoid the assumption that people have infinite plasticity towards new technology.
and convergence since itempowers citizens actively to shape their future and encourages an integrated approach to development
and the possibilities of future generations to attend their own necessities. Sustainable development can be characterised as long term social learning oriented by public policies,
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 282 To achieve this goal, a base of knowledge and abilities that are technically feasible
allowing their renovation (in the case of renewable natural resources), in proportion to the needs of future generations.
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 283 CSR proponents have used four arguments to make their case 29:
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 284 CSR strategies may work under certain conditions 24, but they are highly vulnerable to market failures.
which have become the ethical roadmap for the future. At the same time socially responsible investment (SRI) has become mainstream
Table 1 outlines that strategic CSR moves beyond good corporate citizenship and mitigating harmful value chain current and future impacts.
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 285 Corporate governance is then about strategic CSR, which integrates value chain social impacts and investments in competitive context;
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 286 beyond addressing global inequalities and cultural and religious divides.
as long-term investment in a firm's future competitiveness. The money already invested in CSR
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 287 business and society if consistently invested in social initiatives
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 288 community's readiness to address global issues and to building governance at a global level.
FTA can fulfil its role of supporting actors in society in shaping a common future based on a shared vision among all concerned.
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 289 References 1 D. Large, Participation and representation, A Review of Sustainability Here and now, in part of The Great Debate:
The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future, Routledge, New york, 2009.15 H. G. Daellenbach, Systems thinking & Decision making:
Exploring New Ways to Explore the Future, COST A22 Conference (CD: P042-T4), Athens, July 9 11 (Keynote paper), 2007.19 EC, Growing Regions, Growing Europe:
Our Common Future, 1987.22 M. Bursztyn, et al. C&t para o desenvolvimento sustenta'vel: formulac¸a o e implementac¸a o de poli'ticas pu'blicas compati'veis com os princi'pios do desenvolvimento sustenta'vel definidos
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 290 35 M. E. Porter, M. R. Kramer, The competitive advantage of corporate philanthropy, Harvard Business Review (2002.
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 291
The Big Picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals Ozcan Saritas a,,*Jack E. Smith b a Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9pl Manchester, UK b Federal Foresight & Innovation strategy, Defence
an opportunity to contribute to a value-adding Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards,
discontinuities and weak signals likely to shape the future through the Big Picture Survey. The survey was launched 6 months prior to the Conference.
Global Futures Forum Vancouver April 2008, Europe@2025 European commission. Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures journal homepage:
www. elsevier. com/locate/futures 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:
10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.007 Foresight knowledge base regarding the directions and catalysts that are prompting our global future and its various contingencies and uncertainties.
The originators of this survey used the responses to lead a plenary discussion at the 2008 FTA Conference,
and to encourage reader to think about similar other Future-oriented examples from their own perspectives.
so it is deemed even more important to work toward a more commonly accepted set of definitions for purposes of future work in this area. 2. 1. Trends The starting point for scanning definitions is usually to identify the key trends which are presently evident in the broad sense of being both discernible
opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 293 Potential trends Possible new trends grow from innovations, projects,
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 294 As one can see there are subtle differences from trends.
Drivers have real leverage on one's future flexibility and outcomes i e. if a driver goes one way
They are both presently accessible and future relevant. The concept of uncertainty enters again into the Foresight process
Arguably the best known work in wild cards comes from Petersen 7 author of‘‘Out of the blue How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises''.
Thinking about the Future. O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 295 Building on Petersen's work, Barber 9 developed an additional wild cards
tool called a‘‘Reference Impact Grid''(RIG) which helps strategists and risk managers define vulnerabilities within a given system
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 296 Recent reports about accelerated arctic ice shelf melting and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
Sometimes it is referred as future oriented information, sometimes more like emerging issues. Hiltunen 16 has tried to clarify the confusion about the weak signal definitions
by combining signal, issue and interpretation in the concept of the‘‘future sign, ''which more holistically describes how these signals relate to change.
The tool is developed by the Finnish company Fountain Park. 5 Another tool for using weak signals in organizations is called the Futures Windows 5, in
and increase futures thinking and innovating in the organization. In general weak signals are messages and signs usually associated with early developments in technologies, societal innovations, conflicts, origins of conflicts, etc. that while not easily verifiable from a present day perspective.
or future trends, drivers or discontinuities. Weak signal examples In the 1980s the first mention was made of global warming and climate change;
/O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 297 3. Big Picture Survey 3. 1. Motivation and approach Up until the Future-oriented technology analysis
The Scientific Committee of the FTA 2008 Conference heard that some attendees felt that an opportunity had been missed to discuss future Foresight determinants
2. Building on a survey of FTA Conference attendees-experts about critical trends, drivers, shocks-wildcards, discontinuities and weak signals, new insights can be gained about the state of Foresight and future uncertainties,
J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 298 e g. do those with more years of experience tend to use greater differentiation in their scoring?
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 299 The diagram illustrates that:
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 300 Table 2 Examples of trends.
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 301 years experienced groups. We believe that this strong contribution from the more experienced contributors supports the basic assumption behind the survey that such a gathering of experts would constitute a uniquely defined relevant cohort worthy of sampling
Clear belief that health-medicine, climate and the environment will be central to our futures and offer possibilities for improvements, sometimes through dramatic changes;
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 302 Fig. 7 shows the frequency distribution of drivers of change and the most widely cited ones.
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 303 Impact assessment. There was a general consensus among all respondents around the globe that around 65%of the drivers will have high impact
J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 304 affiliations expect high likelihood of occurrence.
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 305 include those identified in Table 4 that would have unknown implications because of they were to appear,
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 306 3. 2. 5. Discontinuities The orientations of discontinuities are represented with the following radar diagram
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 307 3. 2. 5. 1. Joint assessment of Foresight experience and discontinuities.
and deniers create discontinuity Global security issues rise, e g. nuclear crisis O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 308 2016
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 309 Good response with 171 weak signals;
The respondents with a Foresight experience longer than 1 year expect most the majority of the weak signals to emerge in the medium term future (2016 2025),
J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 310 4. Conclusions and implications on policy and strategy The following implications from the outputs of the Big Picture Survey
and insights that can be used to guide future Foresight work and additional FTA surveys of this type or building upon this base.
4 N. Damrongchai, P. Satangput, G. Tegart, C. Sripaipan, Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific, Science and Public policy 37 (1)( 2010
6 J. Smith, Presentation at the Centre for Innovation studies, Thecis Breakfast Edmonton Alberta, January 13th, 2009.7 J. Petersen, Out of the blue How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises, Madison Books, 2000.8
K. Steinmueller, Thinking about The Future-Strategic Anticipation and RAHS by Risk assessment and Horizon scanning (RAHS), National Security Coordination Secretariat, Singapore, 2008.9 M. P. Barber,
Wildcards signals from a future near you, Journal of Future Studies 11 (2006) 1. 10 N. N. Taleb, The Black swan:
The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House Publishing, New york, 2007.11 P. van Notten, A m. Sleegersb, M. van Asselt, The future shocks:
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 311 13 K. Steinmueller, Wild cards for Europe, Z punkt, 2003.
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 312
The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: Addressing the Cassandra challenge§Ron Johnston a,,*Cristiano Cagnin b a Australian Centre for Innovation, Australia b European commission, DG Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Spain‘‘Cassandra was a daughter of Hecuba
Another pointed to the historical limitations of any attempt to Futures 43 (2011) 313 316 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Otherwise the views of the possible futures that await us may continue to go largely unheard and unheeded
or prophesying the future in favour of developing insight into possible futures and preparing for them.
Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures journal homepage: www. elsevier. com/locate/futures 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.008 influence the future:‘‘‘‘Uncertainty about the future is always there.
If you take a likely scenario with twenty components, each with a 90%probability, then the overall probability is only 12%.
%Hence unexpected events will always happen''.''It was argued that many foresight studies had pointed to the possibility of a collapse in the global economic system 2
Decision-makers need a global vision of the future that addresses financial structures, climate change, poverty, etc''.
R. Johnston, C. Cagnin/Futures 43 (2011) 313 316 314 The first FTA Conference in 2004 gathered predominantly the EU-US community together to take stock of the developments
and explore future needs for FTA. The focus of the Conference was on foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools.
The greatest challenges may be in developing mechanisms to reach out to the other communities professionally engaged with the future
and a stronger platform on which to promote the vital need of addressing the future to individuals at all levels
and capability, to address the future in a more systematic way. These conditions, however, do not imply an automatic rise in the use of foresight or FTA TOOLS.
and may well resort to other guides to the future, or apply them (as we have seen with scenario planning) with little comprehension of their essential components.
or at least to be able to present a picture of plausible possible futures, but never to have heard these messages,
R. Johnston, C. Cagnin/Futures 43 (2011) 313 316 315 Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca UNIDO, Austria.
Future Choices, 2007, http://www. foresight. gov. uk/Ourwork/Activeprojects/Obesity/Obesity. asp. R. Johnston, C. Cagnin/Futures 43 (2011) 313 316 316
Guest editorial FTA break new ground in response to grand challenges Vicente Carabias, Peter De Smedt and Thomas Teichler Abstract Purpose This Guest Editorial aims
sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges. Research limitations/implications From a large set of excellent papers presented at the FTA 2011 Conference,
The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.
sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges. A first example looks at the application of fta methods to transport planning.
Four scenarios were constructed by looking back to the present from the future state of 2050 The main purpose in using the scenario approach was not to predict
but to construct several different futures and paths leading to them. Although all the scenarios were against current trends,
they were still in the range of predictable futures (energy efficiency, restraining urban sprawl, self-sufficiency, and new technologies).
Major findings were obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events,
and anticipate the various possible futures that will guide PAGE 280 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 society.
and challenges that this entails, indicating paths for future research. To sum up, the articles in this special issue demonstrate a variety of FTA application fields
Thomas led several foresight projects, among them the FP-financed SANDERA study on the future interaction of security policy and the European research area.
In Cagnin and Keenan (2008, p. 4) it is emphasised that FTA is based on principles such as future orientation, evidence, multiplicity of perspectives,
multidisciplinary coordination but also on a strong action orientation by supporting actors in actively shaping the future.
Scenarios are defined by many authors as a coherent illustration of possible future situations together with pathways that might lead to these situations (Kosow and Gaßner 2008.
An ex ante assessment of future effects is always based on assumptions and simplifications. In general, these assumptions and simplifications are based on knowledge of different type.
2005, p. 1066) emphasise that, instead of forecasting methods to produce single-value deterministic images of the future,
the future is and will remain uncertain. However, as it was pointed out in the beginning of this paper,
Gordon, T. J.,Glenn, J. C. and Jakil, A. 2005),‘Frontiers of future research: what's next?''
PAGE 292 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Kosow, H. and Gaßner, R. 2008),‘Methods of future and scenario analysis:
which can always influence the future; once any change has happened, a system cannot go back to where it was as the initial conditions have changed now.
and policies) and not cut off future options. But some of these options may not make any sense now they may only do so as the landscape evolves
PAGE 296 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Agents need to be able to see the adjacent deep valley a potential future peak,
and exploration processes to help identify a range of potential future situations and options. They must also enable acceptance that some options will sound negative
they interact in intricate ways that continually reshape their collective future. From a foresight perspective however, Axelrod's (1985) is the most useful:
B Enable the generation of a range of future options and alternative potential strategies through both optimisation and exploration, including some that sound negative,
or more simply as reframing the future landscape and potential strategies, options, and potential policies.
Whatever we say about the future has an implicit idea of change underlying any inference
By simply thinking about a possible future (the purchase of the flat), you have changed your frame.
Axelrod and Cohen (2001) call it the‘‘shadow of the future''.''From the perspective of applying foresight the benefits of reframing are:
and outcomes (futures) resulting from a change process, rather than working with (in) interactions of the systems components itself.
Promoting variation can provide a response to several of the requirements of foresight techniques identified above in Section 2. For example it can contribute to generating a range of future options and alternative potential strategies through both optimisation and exploration.
and why future disruptive changes may happen in a system. It also provides insight into how foresight techniques need to be developed to perform better in complex systems to enable better decision-making and policy making.
Foresight techniques must provide policy makers with the ability to generate a range of future options
Policy making needs Foresight techniques to enable the generation of a range of future options and alternative potential strategies through both optimisation and exploration, including some that sound negative, ludicrous,
Bell, W. 2003), Foundations of Futures studies: History, Purposes, and Knowledge, Volume 1: Human Science for a New Era, Transaction Publishers, Piscataway, NJ.
Commission on the Future of Healthcare in Canada, Ottawa. Goodwin, B. 1994), How the Leopard Changed Its Spots, Phoenix, London.
and reconstructing the future: predictive, cultural and critical epistemologies'',Futures, Vol. 22 No. 2, pp. 115-41.
PAGE 302 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Mendonc¸A s.,Pine Cunha, M.,Kaivo-oja, J. and Ruff, F. 2004), Futures, Vol
. 36 No. 2, pp. 201-18. Mikulecky, C. 2001),‘The emergence of complexity: science coming of age
the futures community at a turning point? A comment on Jay Ogilvy's‘Facing the fold'''Foresight, Vol. 13 No. 4, pp. 24-34.
Miller, R. and Poli, R. 2010),‘Introduction to a Special issue on anticipatory systems and the philosophical foundations of future studies'',Foresight, Vol. 12 No. 3. Mitchell, M. 2009), Complexity:
a response to Ziauddin Sardar'',Futures, Vol. 42 No. 6, pp. 633-9. Schwartz, P. 1991), The Art of the Long View:
Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Bantam Doubleday Dell, New york, NY. Strogatz, S. 2003), Sync:
Backcasting scenarios for Finland 2050 of low emissions Sirkka Heinonen and Ville Lauttama ki Abstract Purpose The objective of this paper is to present an example on how futures studies methodologies,
since it allows the key characteristics concerning the state of the future to be fixed according to the goals policymakers have set to achieve.
it is only possible to view future development through qualitative arguments. The key element for successful application of the method is the choice of expert group that produces the information.
on major future challenges. Topics of the reports vary according to what is considered to be highly significant to the nation's future at the time.
Topics of some previous reports have included issues such as regional development and the effects of ageing of population.
The purpose was to reflect various possibilities to achieve sustainable future and to stimulate discussion on
the foresight exercise was about forming different backcasting scenarios to the desired future. The approach of using backcasting was predetermined also specifically.
which consisted of two rounds of web questionnaires and of two futures workshops, which were connected closely to each other via their phrasing of questions and goals.
Together these four elements formed an integral process where each stage produced a deeper understanding of different socio-technical interconnections that affect the way the future unfolds,
and where a more precise formulation of possible paths toward sustainable futures emerged. Table I presents the progress of the process in a concise form.
Invitations to the two futures workshops were sent to a slightly smaller group (N1 and N2 about 40.
The people invited to futures workshops were selected in co-operation with the scenario team of the Prime minister's Office
Scenarios are manuscripts of the future; they are a meta-technique not just a single method.
yet contested, concepts in futures studies as Bo rjeson et al. 2006) rightly point out. Scenarios cover a whole array of various types of scenarios.
but to construct several different futures and paths leading to them. One specific type of scenarios is backcasting.
is a scenario coming back from the future to the present. A classical predecessor of modern backcasting is Edward Bellamy (1951) with his Table
specifying the end future state that the development paths are aiming and based on this material,
Presenting the desired end state to the expert group and asking their views on the possibilities and prerequisites for the realisation of this future state.
which climate and energy policy should focus Futures workshop October 2008 Futures workshop, ACTVOD futures process Building alternative scenarios that all fulfil the two-degree target 2nd Delphi round November 2008 Delphi:
online survey targeted for expert group (with Webropol survey software) Testing and specifying the development paths constructed in the first futures workshop:
what actions and which actors play key roles After this round the preliminary versions of the result of the scenario process,
four distinctive scenarios, are constructed Futures workshop November 2008 Futures workshop, ACTVOD futures process Analysing and specifying the four designed scenarios Final report December 2008 Final report in electronic format Report gathering together the results of the process:
four different paths for the desired end state PAGE 306 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 book Looking Backward 2000-1887.
which is a process of predicting the future on the basis of current trend analysis,
''Backcasting, instead, envisions futures from the opposite direction‘‘from then to now''.''Its aim is to illustrate the logical path
in order to reach a given future state. Backcasting is thus a normative method: it sets a preferred goal (Ho jer et al. 2011, p. 11.
long-term problems where trend-breaking futures are required: they call for creative and radical solutions (Hickman and Banister, 2007, p. 378.
backcasting aims to liberate images of the future from today's mental fixations and dominating trends.
Due to its focus on alternative futures, discontinuities and long-term perspective, backcasting suits especially well for solving of environmental issues,
a desirable future end state is imagined and visualised, not as a continuation of present trends, but rather as a giant leap directly to the future.
Then a subsequent link of logical steps preceding it is formulated. Although backcasting tries to break free from the constraints of today,
in formulating the path from the future to present external factors need to be taken account (Robinson, 1990, pp. 830-831).
In this scenario task the participatory process was carried out as futures workshops (see chapters 2. 2 and 2. 4). Here,
the desired future state is accomplishing the two-degree target without significant loss in welfare. The preordained backcasting scenario approach was notable in this foresight process in two senses:
i e. they are adopted in search for prerequisites for preferred futures (Robinson, 1982); and 2. growing interest towards backcasting scenarios had been shown in Finland,
such as how much inconvenience the Finns are ready to accept in exchange for more sustainable future, were asked.
and through what kind of mechanisms the future unfolds. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 307 First futures workshop The goal of the first futures workshop soon following the first Delphi round was to collect views
and visions on the ways to achieve the desired low-emissions future. The participants represented various fields of societal expertise such as government administration
NGOS, energy business and researchers of various fields, as well as representatives from various business areas. The results of the first questionnaire were sent in advance to those who had confirmed their participation to the workshop.
the imaginary phase (futures wheel), systematic phase (futures table) and explanatory phase (drafting an array of scenarios for sustainable Finland 2050.
Jungk emphasises that ordinary citizens should be invited to participate in futures workshops to elaborate issues that affect their lives.
regarding to climate change mitigation as well as a variety of futures visions of sustainable Finland. This material was used as building blocks for the next phase of the exercise,
Second round of Delphi questionnaire The second questionnaire was based on the material of the previous two stages (i e. the first Delphi round and the first futures workshop)
the goal of the second questionnaire was to fill in the gaps in the information required to forma solid general view of the future.
with questions concerning development paths having limited options on future development to choose from, whereas questions concerning the scenario drafts were open questions.
Second futures workshop By the second futures workshop the FFRC team had taken into account the results of the second round questionnaire and,
based on this new data, rewritten the four scenario drafts each depicting one possible path to the desired sustainable future (no higher rise than two Celsius degree in average earth temperature).
and actions leading to these futures to come back to the present from the future and go back to the future again.
The goal of the second workshop was to view, assess, and complete the scenarios. As with the first workshop, the results so far were sent beforehand to those who had confirmed their participation in the workshop.
The desire to have numerical values to compare different future paths is understandable. In a political process there is a need for practical and easily digestible information,
lies a hidden risk in using numerical values to describe possible future events. Calculations often oversimplify possible development paths,
are made according to what we know to be possible today and in the near future. Using numerical values to support decision-making is preferred a procedure
All in all, three evaluations of the government futures report were conducted where the scenario process was discussed also:
and two external evaluations one being the official statement given by the Committee for the Future in Parliament (2011),
The Committee for the Future (2011) supported the government foresight report. The Committee had its own analyses of the Finnish climate policy made on three aspects:
The scenario implications show that by encouraging participants to think of discontinuities the backcasting process can help imaging alternative futures
Further developing of participatory elements in backcasting processes could increase their potential for enabling alternative futures thinking even more.
However, it somewhat undermines the very thing one is trying to achieve by futures research methods namely encouraging creativity and a wide variety of options and weak emerging issues.
as a result of the scenario approach which provided concise narratives of long term futures with one robust national goal:
All in all, one can conclude that using futures studies methods in public policy formulation have promising possibilities. Especially participatory methods where views of various different VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 313 experts are considered are recommended highly.
In the pallet of the methods of futures studies catering many different approaches to different needs can be found.
Emphasis should also be given on interpreting the results, even the odd ones that various methods of futures studies produce.
but rather an array of possibilities and alternative visions on the future development, as cognitive food for different policy options.
Towards a user's guide'',Futures, Vol. 38, pp. 723-39. Committee for the Future (2011), Tulevaisuusvaliokunnan mietinto 1/2010 vp.
Valtioneuvoston tulevaisuusselonteko ilmasto-ja energiapolitiikasta: kohti va ha pa a sto ista Suomea, Parliament Report by the Committee for the Future, Helsinki (in Finnish.
Dunlop, I. 2009), Club of Rome activities of Australian members, Club of Rome General assembly, 24 october, Amsterdam.
Gordon, T. J. 2010),‘The Delphi method'',in Gordon, T. J. and Glenn, J. Eds), Futures research methodology CD Version 3. 0, Ch. 4, Millennium Project, WASHINGTON DC.
Ho jer, M.,Gullberg, A. and Petterson, R. 2011), Images of the Future City. Time and Space for Sustainable development, Springer, Dordrecht.
Jungk, R. 1987), Futures Workshops: How to Create Desirable futures, Institute for Social Invention, London. Lauttama ki, V. and Heinonen, S. 2010), Va ha isten pa a sto jen Suomi 2050.
Raportti ilmasto-ja energiapoliittisen tulevaisuusselonteon skenaariotyo sta. Tulevaisuuden tutkimuskeskus, Turun yliopisto, TUTU-e-julkaisuja 8/2010 (in Finnish with an English abstract), available at:
. 1991),‘In search of an evolutionary paradigm for futures research'',Futures, Vol. 23 No. 4, pp. 349-72.
Robinson, J. 1990),‘Futures under glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict'',Futures, Vol. 22 No. 8, pp. 820-42.
Robinson, J.,Burch, S.,Talwar, S.,O'Shea, M. and Walsh, M. 2011),‘Envisioning sustainability:
Further reading Committee for the Future (2011), Valtioneuvoston tulevaisuusselonteko ilmasto-ja energiapolitiikasta: suosituksia ja yhteenveto kokemuksista.
She is Professor of Futures research at the Finland futures research centre, University of Turku. Previously she was a Chief Research scientist at the Technical research Centre of Finland (VTT.
Her expertise is concerned with futures research, sustainable development, technology foresight, energy and environment, and the future of communities.
On these topics she has conducted several research projects and written research reports. Sirkka Heinonen is the corresponding author
He has worked on a number of futures-oriented research and development projects with several Finnish ministries and security organisations and in several EU-funded research projects.
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011