and enable future activities. To trace the emerging irreversibilities we focus on the dynamics of expectations and the agenda building processes.
nevertheless lead to significant future rigidities (in terms of technologies, applications and stakeholders). If one does not just await the outcomes,
which means that options for the future are unclear, although slowly become clear. For example, there is a visible increase in the number of linkages between the heterogeneous actors together in search of defining the newly emerging field or technology.
The future of nanotechnology has become an important topic for technology firms, policy makers and research institutes.
Here again, we see topics that relate to the very far and speculative future such as nano-systems that control
In the near future, these innovations will allow NRAMK to be one of the first mass manufactured nanotechnology products.
Future scientific advances might improve the architecture of nonvolatile memories and eventually to the realisation of the ideal solution (Figs. 5 and 6). The same advances might also lead to more advanced architectures for other type of computer chips (e g.,
and nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes (Fig. 8). We have shown that results of research groups directly give rise to expectations for promising applications and change the agendas for the future.
and enable future developments. The three-level framework makes it possible to gather findings of these first indications.
which supports the actors to formulate their views on the future. These views are directly related to the social perspectives on the new technology.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1109 5 H. Van Lente, Forceful futures:
Contested Futures: a Sociology of Prospective Techno-Science, Ashgate Publishing company, London, 2000, pp. 43 64.6 M. Callon, Technological conception and adoption network:
the key relationships, The Technology/Economy Programme, Paris, 1992.13 A. H. Arnall, Future technologies, Today's Choices:
34 J. W. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 251 268.
Design/methodology/approach These assumptions are tested in a scenario design exercise that explores the future evolution of the sustainable development paradigm and its implications in the Spanish urban development model.
Findings Major findings are obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect the natural environment and the socioeconomic fabric of a given territory.
Keywords Territorial foresight, Scenario design, Urban planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. The oblivion of future studies in urban planning Since its origins in the nineteenth
century and its full development during the twentieth century, one of the key concerns of urban planning has been to foresee the future and limit uncertainty.
visionaries such as Daniel H. Burnham, Lewis Mumford and Le Corbusier made an effort to depict the future of cities in drawings and words.
The oblivion of future studies in the urban planning field was denounced several years ago by practitioners and researchers (Isserman, 1985;
are very reluctant to use future studies in their plans and projects. This withdrawal from future studies can be explained by historical reasons.
PAGE 316 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 316-335, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1463-6689 DOI
The aftermath of quantitative models left the urban planning field with a profound scepticism of any kind of future-oriented analysis.
In recent years, the pre-eminence of collaborative planning has added to the detriment of futures studies.
it is obviously very hard to generate future visions with the support of a broad array of local stakeholders.
These reasons explain to some extent the scant attention paid by urban planners in the last few decades to the revision and reinvention of futures studies as a field of practical knowledge.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 317 3. The new concept of territorial foresight Three arguments are given to support the use of futures studies.
Second, the social debate inherent to urban planning and the need for stakeholder collaboration can be facilitated through a mutually beneficial symbiosis between futures studies and urban planning (Cole, 2001.
In fact, futures studies have a long-term focus and tend to be holistic, while city plans zoom in on social and spatial realities.
Third, there is a tight relationship between futures studies and strategic planning (Ferna'ndez Gu ell, 2011. The need to think about the future
and formulate long-term development visions makes strategic planning a perfect client for futures studies. Since there are solid arguments for raising futures studies to a relevant position within the urban planning process,
the next question is whether they can respond to the requirements of contemporary urbanism. The answer could be called‘‘territorial foresight''.
''According to several authors (Ferna'ndez Gu ell, 2006; Gavigan and Scapolo, 2001), territorial foresight can be defined as a systematic, participatory,
future intelligence gathering and vision-building process aimed at present-day decision making and mobilising joint initiatives in the urban and territorial realm.
which enable current actions to tackle the future successfully. Figure 1 Conceptual framework for urban planning PAGE 318 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. Participation.
First, it systematises the debate about future prospects for socioeconomic development amongst a wide variety of agents by building up plausible and coherent future visions.
territorial foresight gradually builds up an integrated vision of the possible future through participation methods. Foresight is thus complementary to the established planning processes
) The European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007) has published also the findings of its project‘‘Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe'',in
On the other hand, when looking at the future, urban planners tend to focus on forecasting tools, disregarding most foresight methods as frivolous exercises.
The proposed approach shows the way that a future urban vision can be VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 319 translated into practical, measurable strategies to guide territorial development in the long term.
This approach consists of five sequential steps (see Figure 2): 1. Formulation of future visions. Traditional foresight tools such as vision or scenario design are used to create a future vision of the territory and its broader socioeconomic context in a narrative format.
This first step should normally use qualitative tools that facilitate participation by stakeholders. 2. Determination of functional implications.
they can be downloaded to a geographical information system (GIS) to observe future urban implications from the spatial perspective.
After determining all kinds of implications across the territorial system, the analyst should be able to perceive the gap between the proposed future vision and the present situation of the territory
it should be feasible to formulate strategies for guiding future development. Once again, this step requires involvement by stakeholders.
formulating a future vision for sustainable development Once the proposed approach to link foresight tools to the urban planning process has been established,
Since the Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as‘‘the ability to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs''(World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987),
because it provided an adequate management of the topic's complexity and uncertainty while at the same time unfolding alternative futures.
For most foresight practitioners, scenario development is the archetypal product of future studies because it is profoundly creative and capable of handling uncertainty.
and 3. design future scenarios for the evolution of sustainable development. This exercise relied on a systematic, ongoing participation process with experts in SD issues.
This axis encompassed all future uncertainties related to social behaviour, economic models and public policies towards SD. 2. Horizontal axis. Showed the availability of resources needed to achieve the sustainable development goals in the future.
plausible representation of the alternative futures into which the SD concept may evolve by the year 2025.
which each future scenario may develop. Scenario A: green paradigm (circa 2025. This scenario takes place
For several Figure 3 Future scenarios for sustainable development PAGE 322 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 years
This goal may be achieved by analysing the in depth implications of each future scenario for functional systems, parametric indicators and spatial patterns. 4. 2 Step 2:
the proposed methodology establishes a set of functional implications that each future scenario poses for the urban planning process.
Meadows, 1998) is established to assess the potential impact of each future scenario on urban development patterns (see Table I). A base-line scenario (2010) is estimated,
Future spatial patterns are visualized through the location and extension of urban areas, transport infrastructures and open spaces in a small territory located in the northwestern periphery of the Madrid metropolitan area.
Nevertheless, it is bound to have an uncertain future due to its proximity to the overcrowded Madrid metropolitan area.
parametric and spatial implications, formulating strategies for future urban development appears to be a quite logical and deductive step in the proposed methodological approach.
which gaps between the future scenario and the present situation can be perceived easily. The identification of gaps
Interviewees were questioned systematically about their attitude toward future studies and their perceived barriers to the implementation of these studies. 2. Scenarios regarding social attitudes towards sustainable development were adopted from the foresight exercise carried out by Fundacio'n OPTI in 2007.
and determined the scenario implications for the city's future development. This exercise was used as an input to the Burgos Strategic Plan
Whichever scenario materialises in the near future, the sustainability paradigm in Spain will be achieved, depending on the fulfilment of a number of prerequisites:
it generates a tangible product future scenarios and their functional, parametric and spatial implications which people can easily refer to
On the one hand, it offers a comprehensive future vision of a territorial issue and its functional implications, and on the other hand, it encompasses analytical and spatial tools with a view to developing quantitative projections for specific issues.
and stakeholders searching to respond to future challenges. A dynamic and sometimes turbulent environment puts enormous pressure on rational planning systems,
bringing futures into planning'',American Planning Association Journal, Vol. 67 No. 4, pp. 372-83. de Tera'n, F. 1996),‘Evolucio'n del planeamiento urbani
European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007), Scenarios on the Territorial Future of Europe, ESPON, Belgium.
an essay on the role of the future in planning practice and education'',Town planning Review, Vol. 56 No. 4, pp. 483-91.
a new window on the future'',American Planning Association Journal, Vol. 67 No. 4, pp. 367-72.
World Commission on Environment and Development (1987), Our Common Future, Oxford university Press, Oxford. World Summit for Social development (1995), Declaration and Programme of Action, World Summit for Social development, Copenhagen.
In 2010 she started to work as a researcher in the field of futures studies, focusing on the development of an innovative foresight approach to identify major trends
and develop visions of alternative futures for a transition towards a more sustainable model. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 335 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
and anticipate the various possible futures that will guide society. Design/methodology/approach The paper describes a series of real world examples
and challenges that this entails, indicating paths for future research. Originality/value Future-oriented legal studies are rare and,
what is worse, the ones that exist lack proper methodology, failing to encompass the use of forecasting methods or foresight tools in the development of their studies.
This paper attempts to fill the gap produced by this notorious lack of methodology in the legal analysis of the future
It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight, forecasting and technology assessmentmethods and tools to the legal sphere.
Keywords Law, Future-oriented analysis, Foresight, Scenario planning, Modelling, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction Future and Law 1 are two words that are rarely found in the same phrase.
while forgetting the future. In their efforts to establish a legal framework characterised by the fundamental values of order, stability and predictability, legislators,
Future-oriented legal studies are rare and, what is worse, the ones that exist lack proper methodology,
This paper attempts to fill the gap produced by this notorious lack of methodology in the legal analysis of the future,
It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight
and in some cases shape technological futures 2. It was used first by the European commission's (EC) Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) as a common umbrella term for technology foresight
has provided a common place and platform where various communities dealing with different aspects of future envisioning (such as technology foresight,
along with the broader field of future studies) have come together to discuss and learn from each other.
and shape technological futures (Rader and Porter, 2008). In addition, this particular community of scholars and practitioners has managed also to provide a collective definition of FTA,
legislative drafting and law enforcement, will be examined. 3. 2 Legal research 3. 2. 1 Law of the Future Joint Action Programme.
the Law of the Future Joint Action Programme''(Muller et al. 2011) 7. As stated by its organizers and promoters, the project‘‘is based on the premise that prospective thinking about law is not only desirable
This programme (also denominated as The Law of the Future project LOTF) ventured into the study of the future by posing one fundamental question to the legal community of scholars and practitioners:‘‘
The consultation of experts as a methodological approach to the study of the future of law resulted in a very original and creative exercise.
but it also made possible the very first publication of a legal nature that addresses the future of law in such a broad
This innovative application of the Delphi method to Law resulted in an impressive collection of themes and visions, encompassing topics as diverse as the future of international law, national constitutional orders and private law,
along with the future of legal theory, the future of space law and the alternative futures of crime and prisons.
which tends to lead to consensual assessments of the future (Blind, 2006), the objective of these think pieces was to collect, within a legal context, a range of varied ideas about the future.
Scenario planning law scenarios for 2030. Based on the analysis of the various expert think pieces submitted,
the Law of the Future Joint Programme Action advanced to its second phase: scenario planning. This was, in fact, the strategy tool chosen by the project to reflect on alternative futures for law and legal systems.
Scenario planning constitutes one of the most common FTA METHODS used in future studies 10, as it allows experts in foresight to define their own visions of the future,
creating their own narratives and visualisations of forthcoming developments. Unlike other disciplines, such as economics and business science, scenario planning is not very common In law.
This kind of narrative exercise tends not to be very appealing to the legal mind, which is concerned usually more with the‘‘real''and immediate world,
As such, the scenarios used in these few cases constituted descriptive visions of techno-futures, illustrations
and not to problematize or present alternative visions of the future. Furthermore they were not of a legal nature (of
but instead about what the world will look like after the implementation of certain emerging and future technologies (such as the vision of Ambient Intelligence or the prospect of human enhancement).
They thus constituted isolated and factual narratives of a future technological world, which aimed to alert the policy maker to the legal implications of such prospective scenarios.
The Law of the Future project embraced scenario planning in a very distinctive manner. The idea was not to describe what the world will look like,
which legal experts were consulted for their visions of the future of Law in their respective areas.
After this preparatory phase, the Law of the Future project followed a meticulous methodology. As such, the LOTF team first identified a series of major global trends, both societal and legal.
These key uncertainties and contingencies allowed the LOTF team to systematically explore possible futures, providing the foundation for the following three alternative futures
or scenarios for 2030 (described along with their own basic characteristics) 13:1. The Global Constitutionalism scenario:
provide ideal types of the alternative futures of the global legal environment. They are the analytical coordinates that together make up a compass,
In this respect,‘‘The Law of the Future Monitoring Mechanism''seems especially promising, as it opens the doors to the application of other FTA TOOLS to legal research,
speeding the present towards the future by providing knowledge about tomorrow through data about today.
or knowledge databases such as Wikipedia) to construct a model of society capable of simulating what the future holds for us.
i e. to explore various future scenarios at different degrees of detail, employing a variety of perspectives and methods''(Helbing, 2011);
In other words, through serious multi-player online games, we will be able to explore possible futures not only different designs of shopping malls, airports,
the anticipation of the future is increasingly being carried out through the advanced tools that help process, search,
moreover, how the techniques used to envision the future have grown in complexity and sophistication. 3. 3. 2‘‘Future-verification''assessments.
In order to render upcoming laws as‘‘future-proof''''the obligation to perform‘‘future-verification''assessments of longstanding laws may be seen as a possible example of FTA instruments
or procedures applied to the legislative making and revision processes. Accordingly, and before a given law is enacted or revised,
legislators would need to explain both the future need and the future consequences that a particular piece of legislation would address (preferably through the support of scenario planning and/or the use of modelling analysis). In order words,
legislators would define their desirable futures in laws, using the latter as enablers of their vision of the future.
This modus operandi goes by the name of backcasting a method according to which the desired future is envisioned first and only after this,
the steps and actions to attain that future are defined. It is a process that goes backwards,
connecting the future to the present. After a given period of time, a law of this kind would go through a‘‘future verification''assessment, in
which the desired future envisaged by the legislator would be compared with the future effectively attained (that is,
the present) by this piece of legislation. 3. 4 Law enforcement Faced with increasing budgetary constraints,
the police have turned to new technologies to improve their efficiency, using ICT to optimize their increasingly scarce and limited resources,
such as the lack of an adequate number of personnel.‘‘‘‘Predictive policing, ''in this respect, has been used in the US to define the work of computer scientists in exploring data models that predict
which portrays a future where criminals are caught before they commit their crimes, www. imdb. com/title/tt0181689),
/‘‘predictive''analytics are intended obviously not to target individuals for future crimes that they have not yet committed
but not one of the future''(Miles and Keenan, 2003). Along these lines, I believe that Law schools would very much enrich their programs by creating the post for Professors of Legal Foresight
and by establishing the course of Legal Future (in the same way as they provide the well established and fundamental courses of Legal History).
because one could predict the future, but because: Such studies, even if only partially successful, contribute to interesting lectures, provocative teaching,
and legislators to identify future regulatory gaps and needs. These surveys constitute adequate tools to collect information
In this context, the greatest virtue of the scenario planning technique is not to predict how the future may look like,
but to allow for the future to come into being in the minds of the people of the present, that is, to allow for the future to be imagined,
communicated and problematized. Through the use of scenario planning techniques, the future leaves the realm of the unknown and the impossible, transiting to the domain of the Possible future,
in other words, becomes a hypothesis. In a more schematic way, scenarios constitute an instrument of construction, communication and problematisation of the future.
First, and regarding the constructive aspect, scenarios are building processes: they give a form to the future,
translating it into compelling narratives, stories and visions. Second, scenarios constitute channels through which such visions and narratives are communicated to larger audiences.
scenarios allow for different imagined conceptualisations of the future to be transmitted, communicated and shared. Scenarios, in brief, allow for people to‘‘access
''and‘‘learn''about the future (that is, about a particular imagined version of the latter). Third, scenarios not only build and communicate, they also problematize the future.
Through the use of this strategic tool, the future is laid down in an operation table,
being diagnosed then and scrutinized. In procedural terms, scenario planning at the meta-level conceptualises the future as an open question,
advancing then various possible answers and solutions. This is particularly so in the case of the construction of alternative scenarios, in
which the future is segmented in a number of different (and sometimes conflictive and opposing) hypothesis. In this way,
and in the legal context, the production of scenarios is extremely useful for dealing with the inexorable uncertainty of the Future 18.
and alternative futures, preparing legal systems for the matrix of different possibilities that compose the Future scenarios, in this respect, should be used‘‘as a tool to deal with uncertainty,
rather than as a claim to know the future''(HIIL, 2011). Furthermore, the methodological integration of scenario planning with other FTA TOOLS also promises to bring important benefits to the study, drafting and enforcement of law.
By extrapolating future trends and drivers, as well as by assessing alternative visions of the future, scenario planning can be associated with modelling analysis to allow legislators to test different legal options and regulatory solutions within simulated environments.
The alternative set of visions provided by scenario planning can be used to formulate and simulate different data-models of the future world.
Jurists will then be able to assert for instance, the potential impact that different legal reforms can have applied
and simulation techniques aimed at uncovering future societal, economic and environmental trends. Through the use of modelling instruments, legislators would
not only be able to receive relevant information of future societal trends (which would certainly aid lawmakers to better determine the content, objectives and direction of their legal reforms proposals),
Still within the field of lawmaking, modelling systems could be combined with other FTA METHODS, such as backcasting and future verification procedures.
but also an improvement of the design and implementation of future policies. FTA can thus contribute to the fulfilment of these two goals,
With the incorporation of FTA instruments, the revision of laws and the design of future ones would be complemented with better quality assessment procedures.
On this point, backcasting and‘‘future verification assessments'',processes which evaluate existing laws and their performance by contrasting their initial (and desirable) visions of the future with the one effectively accomplished;
together with the use of scenarios, models and simulations to anticipate the set of possible implications that a new proposed law may produce, bear important similarities with the combination of ex ante with ex post impact assessments.
also in its enforcement phase, can benefit from the use of future-oriented methods and instruments.
Future research The introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to Law, as this paper attempted to demonstrate,
laws should ideally establish their vision of desired future, being confronted later on and evaluated according to the future effectively accomplished.
The problem we face with such proposal is how to exactly measure the performance and degree of success/failure of a given law.
in effect, came close to the future they aimed at designing and constructing? This problem, moreover, may also affect the application of fta to legal research.
Given the systemic unpredictability of the future 20, how can FTA-based or oriented laws and legal research be evaluated effectively?
The attachment of a specifc law to a given idea of Future renders the former (at least to some extent) dependent on the vicissitudes
and manipulations that may affect the production of such idea or vision of future. In other words, we may run the risk of having a specific vision of the future directly produced
in order to attain the passing of a given law. The problem we here face is the one of having foresight used as a lobbying instrument
The future, in this respect, should be envisaged in an objective and neutral way, at least as much as possible. This, one should bear in mind,
The future is the site of conflicting and competing discourses and ideologies, it is the site of politics,
Means and procedures to control the neutrality of the future when linked to legal activities should be researched further,
avoiding thus the risk of having the future (either envisaged in the form of scenario,
In this respect, future work should be conducted regarding the boundaries between Science and Law, as a way to render Law a future-oriented activity that uses scientific methods without transforming itself into one of them. 5. Conclusions This paper has proposed a new methodological approach to Law,
reflecting on the application of fta tools and methods (such as Delphi surveys, scenario planning, backcasting and modelling techniques) to the legal sphere,
the paper demonstrates that Law will need to focus on proactive, future-oriented analysis and techniques. Furthermore, in offering a series of specific cases
Bearing inmind that the Future is ultimately unpredictable, one should always be aware that the aim of the application of fta to Law is not to foresee exactly what the future holds (which is,
moreover, impossible) or to apply in the present the most perfect laws for the future.
The aim is, instead, more modest but nonetheless important: to equip the various legal activities, from research to lawmaking, with a set of tools,
and anticipate (if not construct) the various possible future developments that will guide society. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 347 In this way,
more important than foreseeing the future is to actually discuss it, or as Henry Bergson (1948) has put it:‘‘
‘‘The idea of future is more fecund than future itself''22. Notes 1. The term‘‘Law'',written in capital letters,
and which allow the identification of future fields for regulatory policy intervention. The paper thus underlines that foresight methodologies can be applied for identifying
and prioritizing the future areas of regulation. 6. These were the cases of the future-oriented technology assessment exercises conducted during the period 1974-1995 by the US Office of Technology assessment (OTA).
The FIDIS project (Future of Identity in the Information society) aimed to shape the requirements for the future management of identity in the European Information society (EIS)
Signposting the legal space of the future. 14. A concrete example of a combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA, namely between scenario and modelling analysis, can be found in the so-called International Futures (IFS.‘‘
‘‘Ifs''is integrated a large-scale global modeling system which acts as a powerful tool for the exploration of the long-term future of closely interacting policy-related issues (including human development, social change and environmental sustainability).
The central purpose of IFS is to facilitate exploration of global futures through alternative scenarios,
as its interface facilitates data analysis, display of forecasting results and scenario analysis. For further details see Hughes et al.
For two views sustaining the impossibility to anticipate the future, see Staton (2008); and Tuomi (2011.
For two views sustaining the impossibility to anticipate the future, see Staton (2008); and Tuomi (2011.
Regarding the latter paper, Tuomi reconfirms the thesis of the unpredictability of the future, arguing that foresight has missed systematically important future developments due to its reliance on categorizations
and measurement systems optimized for the Industrial Age models of production. According to the author, foresight needs a paradigm shift in the Knowledge society,
failing to grasp the truly creative and novel aspects of the future. This paper, furthermore, explores the basic ontological and epistemological concepts that underlie foresight and FTA. 21.
towards a user's guide'',Futures, Vol. 38, pp. 723-39. Burger, W. E. 1977),‘Agenda for 2000 AD:
and manage our future, available at: www. futurict. ethz. ch/data/Whatfuturictwilldo4media. pdf HIIL (2011),‘Law scenarios to 2030.
Signposting the legal space of the future'',available at: www. lawofthefuture. org/ul/cms/fck-uploaded/documents/LOTFLSTO2030COMPLETE041011DEF1. pdf Hughes, B b.,Moyer, J. D. and Rothman,
D. S. 2011),‘Using the international futures (IFS) model for scenario analysis: combining quantitative and qualitative methods,
350 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Muller, S.,Zouridis, S.,Frishman, M. and Kistemaker, L. Eds)( 2011), The Law of the Future and the Future of Law
Rannenberg, K.,Royer, D. and Deuker, A. 2009), The Future of Identity in the Information society:
Looking into the Future Selected Essays. Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade can be contacted at: norberto. andrade@ec. europa. euvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 351 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
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