and D. Loveridge Sustainability can be defined as the capability of an organisation to persist into the long-term future:
enabling the design of the necessary actions to achieve the desirable future (how things ought to be done according to the business's and its networks'vision).
It is the process of seeking in the present to bridge the gap between the present and the future continuously,
and strategy to a long-term common vision of where an organisation wants to position itself within possible alternative futures.
'and stakeholders'views of what the future might entail. It also considers where all actors see themselves both individually and collectively within these alternative futures.
The link between learning and strategy around a common vision in the network enables trust to be developed across the system through participatory instruments.
such a common vision to be pursued across the system should be based upon the mutual positioning of network actors in relation to future needs (Cagnin, Amanatidou, and Keenan 2012.
and desirable futures and articulation of visions and expectations needed to reach a common goal and an adaptive path to follow,
measured by being able to secure future profits and a strong share price, for a limited time horizon, will be maintained through interdependence between itself and a swarm of suppliers and customers.
Foresight can also expose a range of equally likely paths into the future that may permit more insightful decisions to be made by a business.
joint visions and enhanced responsiveness among the network members including truly novel aspects of how the future might evolve.
Simultaneously, individual firms actively shape the future as an embedded network participant promoting a common vision within it
Institute for Alternative futures. http://www. rockefellerfoundation. org/uploads/files/cf248c9f-3d6c-434a-9d1e-7909bb4c1feb. pdf (accessed July 2012.
Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European union. http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf (accessed July 2012.
Report of World Commission on Environment and Development our common future. Oslo: UN. BSI. 2003.
Futures. Cagnin, C. H. 2005. An information architecture to enable business sustainability. Phd thesis. Manchester:
In Rethinking the future, ed. R. Gibson, 34 46. London: Nicholas Brealey. Damásio, A r. 1996.
Past, present, and future. Academy of Marketing Science Review 2000, no. 4: 1 16. Holliday, C. O.,Jr, S. Schmidheiny,
Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 222 31.
It aims to build the expected future by designing how the business strategy will be implemented. Run the business D It is to implement the defined strategy
so it can establish future capability of analysis and decision making processes. Sustain the business A It is developed a process by every day activities.
and looking for‘tomorrow'to maintain balance between past and future, between what is known and what is new (something unpredictable) is the requirement to success. It is thus a reflection about
and then to adjust the organisational thinking and actions for the future. This phase is where sustainability performance evolutionary leaps can occur bringing,
Recently, information visualization techniques have been used with corporate data to map several LDRD investment areas for the purpose of understanding strategic overlaps and identifying potential opportunities for future development outside of our current technologies.
and techniques hold great promise for aiding the future direction of the science and technology enterprise.
and identify opportunities for future development for each of the five IAS mentioned above. This paper describes the project plan, detailed processes, data sources, tool sets,
The purpose of this set of visualizations, hereafter referred to as bdoe LDRD, Q was to place Sandia's IA activities within a broader context,
and potential future directions. 4. 2. Link analysis of IAS The analyses of the visualizations in Section 4. 1 tend to strongly convey the patterns
or complementary technology spaces that can be leveraged jointly in future LDRD calls. Fig. 5 is an example of the link analysis visualizations that were created
and MST work together to identify a collaborative approach for a portion of their future LDRD calls,
The result of the visualization pointed to specific technological efforts within an IA that could be combined to create a larger effort that could in turn attract future funding outside of the LDRD program.
and that are potential areas of future opportunity for the CIS IA, given its current portfolio and competency base.
then the barrier to entry (in terms of future competition for funding) would be given high the unique expertise of that laboratory.
and ability to compete in the near future, is low. Using this metric, we find that the barrier to entry is reasonably low for the computational biology
which future opportunities to fund. 4. 4. Link analysis of DOE LDRD The Sandia-specific link analysis assisted in the understanding of the technologies within,
or to suggest potential collaborative opportunities between laboratories. 5. Future directions This is the first year that we have applied such analyses to our LDRD process.
In the near future, we plan to expand our scope to include not only the LDRD information from DOE laboratories,
This is a research question and possible future that is worthy of exploration. Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the LDRD Program, Sandia National Laboratories,
and the capability to anticipate one's future position in relation to streams that could emerge, and in relation to potential positions of other entities.
http://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 822 T. Ahlqvist et al. future.
Section 5 wraps up the argument and opens future avenues for further exploration. Strategic development paths and systemic transformation capacities An important starting point when building an anticipatory culture is the realisation that organisatiion act under constant temporal tension.
1) the future development options in the context of anticipated and unknown challenges,(2) the past decisions that affect the organisation either explicitly or implicitly,
It is important to realise that not only the realised paths affect the present development and the future possibilities
and future knowledge in an organisation. memory, at least to some extent. The causality between decisions made
but as a kind of continuum that is constructed out of future options, the present, realised path in the past,
and potential future options manifested in the organisation's present. We realise that transformation capacities could also be identified on other grounds
and they should also foster future-oriented adaptability. We propose that this paradox could be tackled by fostering two systemic capacities:(
'and based on‘future beacons'that are locked only temporarily. The position of these beacons should be checked regularly in relation to changes in the landscape and in relation to other‘navigators'.
An anticipatory agency can be defined as a strategic ability of an organisation to construct feasible targets for the future through shared dialogue,
to make future-oriented strategic conclusions on this basis, and to turn these conclusions into actions.
as an organisational capability to continuously reflect on one's own actions against systematically formed strategic views of the future,
and to change one's behaviour and/or strategic view of the future when necessary.
which produces a hermetic chart of the future with a sealed vision. Therefore, the vision should be understood as temporarily locked target that is systematically verified
1) constructing an initial roadmap with a future vision and required temporal axes (short term, medium term,
when roadmapping the futures of a national innovation system. The temporal spans of the roadmaps are also scalable
First, roadmapping enables the organisation to systematically produce its own strategic future manuscript and set it in the context of organisational knowledge spaces (see the next section).
These kinds of future manuscripts could also be produced with other narrative foresight methods, such as scenarios or‘genius forecasting'.
but it also needs to promote an explicit anticipatory agency that is built against explicit future visions.
roadmapping enables organisations to align their future visions with explicit action steps and to iterate the process systematically.
It is based on an idea that roadmaps are like visual narratives describiin the most critical paths of future developments (Phaal and Muller 2009.
However, combining roadmapping with system dynamic modelling is definitely a potential path for future methodological development.
we have singled out four knowledge spaces that are important in the context of RTOS (see also Table 1). The model combines the four knowledge spaces with three basic temporal scales (past, present, and futures.
and the past and the futures are more incoherent. This visualisation underlines a crucial point:
and the future but the present is the only temporal position where interpretations can be turned into actions.
and social/actor space are linked to a strategic perspective of the future, i e. a strong target Building strategic
transparency Communicating strategic aims Building synthesising vision (vertical and horizontal) Visionary strategising Aligning roadmap knowledge Visionary Exploration of futures on different scales of certainty Systemic
openness towards future possibilities Drafting novel concepts Capacities for resilience Identifying wild cards Focusses primarily on vision building:
This space is devoted to the exploration of futures on different levels of plausibility. Our model starts with a presupposition that in the technology and social/actor spaces
the exploration of the more radical futures is restricted usually by the overaal need to identify certain actions in the present.
However, in the visionary space, the actual exploration of alternative futures is the core. In our ideal model, we have depicted, for example, disruptive futures (phenomena that change the name of the game),
alternative futures (trajectories that are alternatives to the hegemonic futures), ‘black swans'(utterly unsuspected phenomena that have significant impacts),
and unlikely futures (futures that are seen not as credible, but that have significance in the imaginary of the present options).
Table 1 translates the above-mentioned knowledge spaces into‘roadmapping language'and terminology. It describes the basic aims of the process
The aim of the roadmap is to identify specific action steps towards the future. This scope is parallel to the technology space.
The second workshop considered the future markeets business potential, and actors in the sector of building services.
It built a vision of the future and fostered action steps to reach that vision.
and focussed on future possibillitie by emphasising ICT applications. It was aimed to build capacities for the renewal of VTT's technological basis by stressing the development of a more service-oriented approach.
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Technology Exercise covered the field of building services with an explicit focus on the future possibilities,
future-oriented thinking. Roadmapping was divided into two phases. The first roadmapping phase traced the big picture of the service landscape from the present moment (2009) until 2025.
The project defined the emerging field of service research and its future possibilities, and clarifiedvtt's role in the context of service research.
Furthermore, the project aimed to fortify VTT's brand as a service research organisation by stating the VTT state-of-the-art and vision for the future.
and potential future drivers for the services. Construction Machinery Roadmap: strategy space and visionary space, systemic I scope The third case is an example of a systemic network roadmap.
and its future possibilities Capacities for use of the existing service knowledge Knowledge generated via roadmapping was used iteratively throughout the strategy building process, e g. definition of service, identification of most important research needs,
and vision for the future Social/actor Identification of most important players in the field of service research internally and externally Capacities and methods for linking and sharing existing knowledge internally,
but also on the potential future employees in the field. Visionary ideas about technology-enabled services could also be one way to stimulate Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
abilities at Nordic regional level Construction of implementation strategies Visionary Building long-term visionary glimpses to the futures of ICT applications and adoption of ICT in Nordic region Aimed at systemic
openness towards future development options in the ICT context Systematic assessment of the different future options:
In the capacity view, the project endorsed systemic openness towards future development options in the context of ICT,
The visionary space was opened by systematic assessment of different future options, for example, by evaluating the plausible,
The roadmapping process was also able to foster a shared understanding of the critical future gaps,
There are also factors that hinder the use of future knowledge. One hindrance to converting the ideas into practices could be the somewhat abstract nature of the case examples:
much of the useful future knowledge is left inside the project reports without further systematic steps.
such as constructing exploratory future narratives or making experimental mini-scenarios, could be handiie than more structured roadmapping.
and steered against continuously fulminating, multifaceted future targets. Fostering structural openness and an anticipatory agency, as discussed
Finally, at least three paths for future research can be delineated. First, the notion of systemic transformation capacities should be analysed from perspectives other than roadmapping.
and future affects the organisational practices. Forward-looking sensibility is ineluctably related to contextual historical understanding, and vice versa.
Her research interests are especially in future-oriented research in linking ecological and social aspects of sustainability and in social impact assessment.
Futures of the ICT environment and applications on the Nordic level. Helsinki: VTT Publications, Edita Prima Oy.
Futures of the ICT environment and applications on the Nordic level. Summary report. Publication of Nordic Innovation Centre.
A vision of the construction machinery sector and future roadmap 2012 2020. VTT Asiakasraportti VTT-CR-00459-12.
Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group 2004; Cagnin et al. 2008). ) The analytical components that we address should be considered in the context of performing FTA (Porter 2010)
when the future is open ended and thus an evolving map is needed. Presentations of alternative development scenarios to interested parties can communicate and advance foresight processes (Step
and applications. 5. Discussion and future prospects We have worked at FIP for several NESTS, including nanobiosensors (Huang et al. 2010), deep brain stimulation (Robinson et al. 2011),
Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group (Alan L. Porter, Brad Ashton, Guenter Clar, Joseph F. Coates, Kerstin Cuhls, Scottw.
Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods. Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 1: 287 303.
Identifying expected areas of future innovation by combining foresight outputs Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada Abstract Purpose This paper attempts to examine the efficacy of combining outputs from a foresight exercise by different
It seeks to address the combination of outputs in an objective manner to identify expected areas of future innovation toward the desired future as well as related areas that are supposed to play a key part.
and life-related areas are two major areas where future innovation is expected. ICT, management and globalization are common factors that would be critical to promote innovations in these areas.
Originality/value This paper is a case study of combining outputs at the last stage of a national foresight exercise to identify areas where future innovation is expected.
it aims to provide an overview of future impacts on our society in broader contexts. Foresight activities in Japan have changed also their objectives.
and technology that would play an important role in drawing up a picture of future society.
The Delphi survey in the 9th Foresight exercise aims to outline the future prospect of development in science
and finally 2, 900 responses were received in total. 2. 3 Scenario Three approaches were attempted for scenario building with a view to the desired future. 2. 3. 1 Scenarios by group work.
and created a positive scenario each about future changes that should be made; that is, a framework for reaching goals.
Each scenario was supposed to be centered on drawing up the desired future and extensive coverage of key elements including priority research and development, human resource development,
Life scenes were developed based on the average future outlook of many experts. Delphi topics that were forecasted to be realized by 2025 were extracted
and reframed as a form of scenes. 2. 3. 3 Future society as discussed by the younger generation.
This study aims to provide an initial platform on which the people in each region deepen their own independent discussions about their future vision.
what cooperation and convergence among scientific and technological areas will be required to address four challenges by combining information to draw up the whole picture of future science
It appears that the effort to grasp these future events systematically in a framework will gain importance.
This implies that the areas that are conducive to the realization of energy-and-environment related future visions gathered much attention from experts in a variety of technological disciplines.
The collaboration of these base technologies including ICT with mainstream innovation will be discussed further in the next section. 5. Common factors for future innovation As stated in section 3,
Figure 5 Relation between directions of future innovation and base technology areas VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 15 5. 2 Examination of relationship between scenario descriptions
and technology is indispensable for discussing the desired future. 6. Conclusion To bring about innovation in society through the effective use of the fruits of science
and technology foresight clearly should define an image of the future and show the framework Figure 6 Ratio of topics that are related to several scenarios PAGE 16 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 toward its realization.
The 9th Foresight exercise was conducted under the concept of contributing to the future society. The points of the exercise were diversified interdisciplinary
and scenario to get a whole picture of science and technology toward the desired future. Green-related areas and life-related areas define the major directions of our future efforts toward realization of the desired future.
Common factors, including ICT, management and globalization, should be emphasized in connection with the promotion of innovation in these two areas.
This paper is a case study of combining foresight outputs at the last stage to identify the expected areas of future innovation
and position potential areas of future innovation with related areas to be promoted together in the whole picture.
which research framework could lead to the better understanding of the overall picture and the direction toward the future.
European commission (2004), Converging technologies Shaping the Future of European Societies, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2009), Mapping Foresight:
Revealing how Europe and Other World Regions Navigate into the Future, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2010), Europe 2020:
Research policy makers need specific information and insight on how the structured view of the future provided by foresight affects their strategic planning.
They also help to create a joint vision for the future and to shape supporting infrastructure measures.
and thus ultimately shape the future. The success of research policy is dependent on the alignment of a broad range of relevant stakeholders from academia, industry, politics, and society.
It is essential to reach a common understanding about current challenges, potential future paths and the necessary steps to move forward based on an overall perspective that integrates individual stakeholders'points-of-view.
Rather, it needs to anticipate future opportunities as well as future societal needs. It is therefore essential to underpin research policy with robust assumptions and a structured view of possible future developments.
Foresight activities provide such a view and are therefore a crucial element in a responsible allocation of public funds to research efforts in academia and industry.
Research policy makers do not just require the structured view of the future that foresight activities provide
and analyzing areas for future research and technology, including some that use a mission-oriented approach within the framework of societal needs defined by the so-called‘‘High-tech Strategy''.
both during the process of creating consensus views of future developments and during their translation into research policy and the creation of research infrastructure.
An efficient transfer of foresight results has to be secured proactively to grasp the opportunity to consciously shape future research in a competitive and dynamic environment The context is dynamic
Key results of strategic dialogues are the development of recommendations for the BMBF as input for future research policy.
and of the criteria it uses to assess the value of future outcomes of the strategic dialogue.
Survey of earlier national research policy Where funding programs are considered as an element of future research policy it is important to gain an overview of previous funding activities in relevant subject areas as well as lessons learnt.
of future ambitions. 4. 6 Step 6: Expansion towards external stakeholders Based on the collected information from various sources the issues to be addressed in the further course of the process can be expressed with greater precision.
Scenarios and exploration in depth Given that future-looking activities of the BMBF often span time periods of ten to 20 years it can be fruitful to engage all stakeholders in building normative and/or exploratory scenarios as a guide and framework
and its challenges as well as a joint view of the future with potential paths to move forward successfully.
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 25 For the BMBF, a wealth of structured information has been generated that allows formulating a future vision and recommendations for research policy initiatives,
and translation of a joint view of the future into prerequisites and recommendations for a coherent research policy and its implementation through programs and/or dedicated institutional structures. 5. Illustration with recent examples As outlined above,
and their commitment to future activities; B consideration of the existing structure of departments within the Ministry as well as known difficulties in initiating activities across departments;
They also help to create a joint vision for the future and to shape supporting infrastructure measures.
This article presents some recent experience of how national research and innovation systems use futures to construct responses (such as new investment priorities) to emerging global challenges and opportunities.
was the focus on translating future-oriented knowledge (from drivers and trends) into grand challenges for the national research and innovation system.
However, through the consultative futures process undertaken, it emerged as a significant(‘‘grand'challenge for the country's research and innovation system.
menu/standard/file/lund declaration final version 9 july. pdf 2. The author was a member of the team that was appointed to carry out the work on behalf of Forfa's. The team was made of CM International (lead contractor) and the Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation
foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy'',Futures, Vol. 43 No. 3, pp. 243-51.
Georghiou, L.,Cassingena-Harper, J. and Scapolo, F. 2011),‘From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis'',Futures, Vol. 43 No. 3, pp. 229-31.
impacts and implications on policy-making'',Futures, Vol. 43 No. 3, pp. 252-64. Martin, B. R. and Johnston, R. 1999),‘Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system.
Rappert, B. 1999),‘Rationalising the future? Foresight in science and technology policy co-ordination'',Futures, Vol. 31 No. 6, pp. 527-45.
Saritas, O.,Taymaz, E. and Tumer, T. 2007),‘Vision 2023: Turkey's national technology foresight program:
About the author Martin Rhisiart is Director of the Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation at the University of Glamorgan.
and forecasting the future state of the environment, based on Russian meteorological and natural resources satellites (2015-2020);
The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends, whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at development S&t.
because we could not assess to what extent the project materials were in the development of these documents Indirect FS2 The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,
A clear need was highlighted for more detailed analysis of future demand for human, financial and other types of resources for S&t development.
updating the Union's approach in the context of the Lisbon strategy'',COM (2003) 112, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2004a),‘Science and technology, the key to Europe's future guidelines for future European union
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2010),‘The 9th Science and Technology foresight Survey contribution of science and technology to future society.
Sokolov, A. 2008b),‘Russian critical technologies 2015'',Collection of EFMN Briefs, Part 1, Directorate-General for Research Co-operation, European commission, Brussels. Sokolov, A. 2009),‘The future
University of Joensuu (2010),‘Foresight for the development of forest sector in Finland till 2020'',Future Forum on Forests of Finland.
Future challenges to the Finnish Forest Sector, University of Joensuu and Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Finland, available at:
Mapping of future technology themes in sustainable energy Hai-Chen Lin, Te-Yi Chan and Cheng-Hua Ien Abstract Purpose To anticipate science
this paper aims to address a structured analysis method for future technology trajectories and interactions by mapping
and associating the future technology themes in foresight reports with a state of the-art-the art technology classification system. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrative method for systematically clustering,
and used as sources for future technology themes analysis. A standard mapping taxonomy based on international patent classification system was used to map out the technology concept described in these future technology themes.
Findings By this standard mapping taxonomy and structured analysis, future technology themes in strategic foresight reports from countries in focus are mapped systematically
and integrated for viewing future technology options and interactions. Similarities and discrepancies for prospecting the future technology trajectory among these countries are identified also.
Research limitations/implications It would be a significant contribution if this structured analysis could be applied more broadly across different geographic regions or across research areas in foresight reports.
This research may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification framework to make comparison and aggregation of future technology options from different countries/regions.
or quality and help in identifying the gaps between the probable future changes in S&t and the current capability.
Introduction Foresight and competitive intelligence (CI) are two fields that seek to address future-oriented environmental scanning (Calof and Smith, 2010.
or predict a certain future situation, but recognizes the possibility of alternative futures and also tries to shape
or create PAGE 54 jforesight j VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013, pp. 54-73, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1463-6689 DOI
and the result of the 3rd Foresight activity of South korea has resulted in 21 future technology areas. Also, China has used the result of foresight for selection of their critical technologies.
where the emphasis VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 55 is not only on the technologies of the future
and their future applications seem to be quite similar, i e. to guide R&d decisions. In looking at the timeframes associated with CTI,
and develop strategies for future ISTS in order to realize the goal stated in the Lisbon Objective (Fujii,
and structured view to see the future science and industry development from foresight collected from all over the world.
Therefore, monitoring among scanned future trends, selecting and making positioning, and then specializing in small segments of the world market become the main focus of a small country.
which future trends can be detected easily, analyzed and visualized. It has been shown that fingerprinting of foresight activities by using a widely accepted
International Patent Classification (IPC) is applied as a basis for the mapping of the contents of future technology themes
and analyze future technology development and interactions. 2. Methodological approach 2. 1 Delphi method background Delphi was developed in the 1950s by the US RAND Corporation
and has become a widely accepted and frequently used research method, especially for foresight or for future oriented research.
I Basic information for scanned foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China Japan South korea China Report Title The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Delphi Analysis Prospect of future society
& future technology of Korea-challenges and opportunities (Korea 2030) China's Report of Technology foresight 2004 Report year 2005 2005 2004 Project promoter/initiator Ministry of Education
as described in the technology vision of a Delphi topic, to the present or near future technological trajectory.
The proposed method can help to identify future technology trajectory and interaction by mapping and associating the future technology themes described in strategic foresight reports from selected countries with a state of the-art-the art technology classification system.
The technology concept in future technology themes is mapped by the classification framework and the interaction between technologies is identified through a causal effect analysis. Similarities
and discrepancies in future technology options among countries are analyzed successfully, and important technology trajectories for each country are highlighted specifically
and compared. In summary, there are some operational and methodological benefits that can be provided by the integrative analytic method of this study.
with the aim of anticipating future S&tchanges and shifts in the competitive environment. By providing a consistent classification framework
the mapping and comparison of future technology options from different countries/regions become more effective. Also, the method combines both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence, by utilizing the results derived from the former as a target for analysis
and help to building the desired vision and strategy for developing future technologies. Meanwhile from a resource-based strategic concept, this classification framework can provide a bridge to link the future technology themes with current technology performance such as patent productivity or quality,
or even with scientific performance, and can thus help in identifying the gaps between the probable future changes in S&tand current capabilities.
While some scientific literature databases have been reclassified by using IPC code, this PAGE 70 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 kind of capability gap identification becomes easier.
In addition, since the IPC code provides a hierarchical framework for mapping future technology themes, demonstration of the future technology trajectory and intelligence in different level of technology scope is possible.
Therefore, not only policy makers at the national level but also researchers who are conducting a research agenda can use such a structured analysis result to see the future trends in their proper scope
and to check how they can position or respond to the future competitive landscape. However, there are some limitations for this study.
The result of the analysis is based on the foresight activities of three large Northeast Asian countries and some of the technology interactions are prospected differently by these three countries.
revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future'',Publications Office of the European union, European commission, Luxembourg, available at:
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