of which this special issue for Technological forecasting and Social Change consists of the selected papers with particular emphasis on methodological aspects of FTA,
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change 0040-1625/$ see front matter 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.10.004 new power of IT and network analytical approaches, but it also directly aims its messages at policy makers responsible for designing more effective strategies for the deployment of public funds for R&d and those responsible for forecasting where and how to do this no small task indeed!
Using this model he identified a range of technology changes associated with new standards for accessible internet applications within 100days of their emergence and without prior reference to the individual technology morphologies pathways progression.
reconfiguring policy structures and as a dynamic process, symbolizing policy evolution-change. In many respects the BMBF foresight demonstrates how in practice many of the new approaches are actively engaging a changing view of policy for the knowledge economy.
storage and distribution in Australia. 1136 Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137 We conclude with the observation of Scott Cunningham
Changes are multitudinous. Therefore new techniques are needed for analyzing technology architecture. This implies a renewed dedication to alternative exploratory modeling,
and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission. 1137 Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137
and analyzing systemic change in technology. Technological changes increasingly stem from the novel recombination of existing technologies. Changes are multitudinous.
Therefore, new techniques are needed for analyzing technology architecture. A literature review of related work in the field of technology opportunities analysis is presented.
and analyzing systemic change in technology. Technological changes increasingly stem from the novel recombination of existing technologies. Therefore, new techniques are needed for analyzing technology architecture.
Thus, exploratory modeling is used to explore Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 E-mail address:
10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.014 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change alternative views of the future,
and anticipate structural change 15. Clark 16 considers how market forces shape technological hierarchies, and how such hierarchies in turn shape the market
The challenge of the technology analyst is to usefully structure this information to anticipate change. The technology designer has a similar challenge in exploring new, heretofore unforeseen, combinations of new technologies.
The technology analyst needs to anticipate change. A structured representation of the data provides a principled account of where technological change is most likely to occur. 1139 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 The article
which follows argues that there is a sizeable amount of open source information which is shared between distributed communities of designers and researchers.
Systems ecology for instance provides a formal theory of morphological change 20. A hierarchical random graph is a succinct recipe for generating
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 The hierarchical representation of the data grows more attractive as the network grows larger,
the total Fig. 1. Example hierarchical random graph. 1141 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 number of links or edges
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 4. Results In this results section we apply the methodology described in the previous section to a specific system of new technologies.
Fig. 4. Expanding network of hyperlinks in Wikipedia. 1143 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 At least three other networks have been studied in the context
Our goal in this analysis is to use the hierarchical structure to anticipate new changes in this field of information technology.
data. 1144 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 The resultant hierarchical random graph usefully distinguishes between high-level concepts
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 As seen in Table 3 the model anticipates a threefold combination of Internet explorer, rich Internet applications and the World wide web consortium (W3c), with a likelihood of 81%.
The graph enabled recognition of changes roughly 200 days after W3c posted a new standard,
It recognized these new changes without explicit linkages in the knowledge base of technologies. Thus, the hierarchical random graph approach may provide a new forecasting, analysis and design technique for architectural innovation.
As Henderson and Clark suggest 29 there are really two dimensions of radical change here. There is change in core concepts
(or as we identify them in this article the nodes of the network), and change in the linkages between the concepts.
Thus, as these authors argue, there are two different flavors of radical innovation architectural innovation (focusing on links),
Radical innovation combines both aspects of change. We have argued in this paper that many previous technology forecasting techniques have focused only on incremental and dominant designs.
which they struggle to encode within the network of scientific progress Polanyi 35 Changes in technology in this case are manifested in changes in network structure Knowledge is built upon the configuration of knowledge claims,
and is distributed therefore a characteristic of science Lakatos 34 Changes in network structure in this case are diffuse,
%1146 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 Techniques such as the link prediction algorithm described here might assist in radical innovation processes by providing rapid
anticipation of change, through use of a model which anticipates architectural evolution. Furthermore, the structured representation of the data may help identify areas where competences may need to be strengthened further or even completely restored.
The author suggests that the original conception of architectural change, as specified by Henderson and Clark 29, is predicated on external sources of innovation.
Changes to the network can stimulate revolutionary progress. These claims are given in Table 3. Corresponding evidence from this case are displayed in this table,
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 If tacit knowledge has based a character upon the configuration of knowledge claims, then methods (such as the hierarchical graph)
Even better would have been to anticipate change before it occurs, rather than recognize change shortly after.
The case study recognized impending change in nodes related to W3c standard setting, rich Internet technologies, and Internet explorer.
Finding supporting evidence for change was ease. Nonetheless, interpreting the meaning of these changes introduced a component of subjectivity.
Such subjectivity may be hard to remove given the epistemic character of uncertainty in new technology. It is important also to acknowledge that this is only a first demonstration of concept on a relatively limited sample.
CRC Press, Boca raton, 1998.1148 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 10 D. R. Swanson, N. R. Smalheiser
was published in 2001 with Wiley. 1149 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149
i) the context conditions are less stable and predictable due to increasing changes on the demand side and changing regulations,
these approaches are often deficient with regard to addressing the broad range of uncertainties associated with the long planning horizon (more extensively treated in 5). Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Corresponding
& Social Change Foresight has its strengths in addressing broad ranges of future conditions by adopting participatory and discursive approaches.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 organizations have been optimizing to guarantee the provision of homogeneous and affordable services.
Changes in context conditions outside the considered range may entail very costly adaptation measures (see e g. 17),
Cagnin and Keenan 19 dub this type of approach as mode 2 foresight that allows the consideration of fundamental changes in paradigms
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 integrated system-and demand-management perspective 38, p. 4. Some scenario projects show a variety of different land use
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 actors. The core team selects approximately a dozen stakeholder representatives according to their influence and affectedness 61.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 For analyzing these trade-offs, we have developed two graphical representations of the assessment data.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 participate in the different stages of the process.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Based on a national analysis of The swiss sanitation system 69 and a call for participation in innovative strategic planning processes,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 the prevailing technical structure and the autonomy of the existing organizations.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 and a forceful coordination of regional sanitation services.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 The elaboration of a joint system representation by the different organizations in the Kiese catchment furthermore prepared the ground for intensified collaboration and shared visions.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Acknowledgements The project Regional infrastructure foresight was funded by The swiss National science Foundation within the National research Program 54 Sustainable development of the Built Environment.
market liberalization as a driver for radical change? Res. Pol. 35 (5)( 2006) 609 625.12 A. Rip, R. Kemp, Technological change, in:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 49 K. M. Hillman, B. A. Sandén, Exploring technology paths:
Greening as strategic development in industrial change why companies participate in eco-networks, Geoforum 39 (1)( 2008) 32 47.63 J. Gausemeier,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162
Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies Raija Koivisto, Nina Wessberg, Annele Eerola, Toni Ahlqvist, Sirkku Kivisaari, Jouko Myllyoja, Minna Halonen VTT Technical research Centre of Finland
In an ideal situation the risk analysis is performed continuously to check all appearing changes and situations.
whereas in foresight exercises the positive developments like innovation possibilities has Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Corresponding author.
& Social Change been emphasized. Hence, somehow the link between these two research traditions is in essence present,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Both the SECI and SLC model emphasize the shared knowledge making.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 interviews. Megatrends and weak signals are also the crucial targets of the examination:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 analytic way to assess and manage risks in a complex context was rapidly showing its success. The number of industrial accidents
Resilience engineering originates from the resilience thinking of ecosysste dynamics 38 implying that ecosystems must cope with continuous changes and constant evolution.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 the resilient ecosystem dynamics, the resilience engineering stands for an industrial process
or organisation understood as an ecosystem under continuous change. Instead of components, resilience engineering emphasises the meaning of practices, events and actions in the process 27.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 The INNORISK Managing opportunities, risks and uncertainties project is a 3-year (2006 2009) joint research project between the Corporate Foresight
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 autumn. Potential climate change effects are added then to the seasonal plan
and changes to the normal seasonal routines can be noticed; the future is linked in that way to present situation.
Background information contains, for instance, the modelling of the changes in the river flows based on the climate change scenarios.
Besides natural science kinds of changes climate change poses also social changes in the society. Political decisions are affected by the climate change.
Herein the foresight methodologies considering the possible changes in the society may be helpful. A major challenge is,
Scientific knowledge concerning natural changes constitutes different scenarios of the future and social knowledge can also be formulated into various scenarios depicting the potential futures.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 The positioning of the case projects in the Fig. 4 can be explained by the types of projects:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Fig. 1. However, the normal monitoring and evaluation actions are conducted
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 4. 3. Lessons learned from the case projects The basic lessons learned from the case projects are shown in Table 1. The case projects of this paper (IRRIIS, INNORISK,
In both technology and risk assessment this is made by changing mindsets, building trust among actors and developing better preparedness for the change,
and to create knowledge to help decision making in defining management strategies concerning the changes the future may cause.
Information on changes in the environment in business and in the society in general is crucial for both FTA and risk assessment.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 than the FTA PROCESS. In turn, there is a shift towards a more contingent approach also in risk assessment as is in FTA APPROACH.
Due to the need of developing more holistic risk management processes responding the continuous change, the future risk assessment shows up as a methodology that should increasingly adapt supplementary elements from many different approaches such as FTA.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 5 European commission, Thinking, Debating and Shaping the Future:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Dr. Toni Ahlqvist is Senior Research scientist and Team Leader of Technology foresight and Technology assessment team at VTT.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176
Frontiers of futures research: What's next? Theodore J. Gordon, Jerome C. Glenn*,Ana Jakil American Council for the United nations University, 4421 Garrison Street N w.,WASHINGTON DC 20016, United states Received
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 will lead to a more organized bscience-likeq field with a theoretical basis. Not only are there many diverse techniques for theorizing,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1065 So, given these circumstances, how can the domain of the unknowable be reduced?
How does vision of the future and perceptions of reality change? Or, more importantly, how do breakthroughs really happen
systemic changes and experimental and observational errors, can never be eliminated completely from the decision making process. Thus, we and others argue that instead of using forecasting methods to produce single-value deterministic images of the future,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1066 nonlinear (that is, input and output are related not in a one-to-one fashion) and, through excessive feedback or bgain,
the nature of modeling changes. In the old days validity was tested by building models with data through some date in the past
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1067 6. Judgment heuristics People often make irrational decisions.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1068 9. Conclusions This paper has identified several frontiers
Change 42 (1992) 1 15.5 Daniel Kahneman, Slovic Paul, Tversky Amos (Eds. Judgment Under Uncertainty:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1069
The role of the technology barometer in assessing the performance of the national innovation system Torsti Loikkanen a,,
and sometimes even elusive issues and they often seem easier to interpret by the Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 Corresponding author.
10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.011 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change general public than finding a common trend among many separate indicators.
The various economic development phases form a context incorporating the significant socioeconomic changes and dynamics into the analysis. The framework enables the structural comparisons of entire economies, their individual industrial sectors, related R&d and innovation intensities,
and respective socioeconomic changes. Structural characteristics, dynamics and knowledge intensity differ essentially also among developed economies,
Thereby the inclusion of transitional phases of economies to the comparative analyses of economic and innovation systems deepens the understanding of the long-term socioeconomic changes and dynamics.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 The theoretical framework of technology barometer is based on various economic development stages since the first barometer exercise in 2004.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 composite indicators to avoid datamanipulation andmisrepresentation 1. OECD publications 1,
and related change of position as compared to the barometer of 2005 6, 7. The synthesis paints a picture of the country's progress in each indicator of two recent technology barometers.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 3. 2. Survey study of future visions In addition to indicator-based comparison the technology barometer instrument includes a survey about people's expectations regarding the future development trends.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 272, were 2nd year students sitting for their matriculation examination.
in order to comply with the ongoing changes in the economy from resource-based structures into competence-based ones.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 most notably in terms of social needs and innovation policy interest, for the kinds of insights that the technology barometer exercise can deliver.
For example, political changes and elections, and also transformations in national innovation policies could be triggers of the new barometer exercise.
allowing the identification of changes occurred in the course of time both in indicator study as well as in survey study.
Recent relatively radical changes of Finnish innovation policy are challenging data basis and indicators of research and innovation,
This change will be promoted also by organizational changes in the public administration of innovation. Moreover the scope of innovation in policy-making will be extended from technological innovation merely towards business innovations and behavioural, organizational and different social innovations.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 indicators. Moreover, the process of developing Finnish national strategic centres for science, technology and innovation is underway in the technology fields with future importance for businesses and the society.
All these changes pose newchallenges to indicator and survey studies of technology barometer. The further development of barometer to respond to the above mentioned challenges is already in process.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 Appendix B. Technology barometer 2007 Technology instrument for measuring citizens'attitudes and the nation's orientation towards a knowledge-based
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 References 1 M. Nardo, M. Saisana, A. Saltelli, S. Tarantola, A. Hoffman, E. Giovannini, Handbook
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186
The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany Kerstin Cuhls a,, Amina Beyer-Kutzner b, Walter Ganz c, Philine Warnke d a Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research (ISI), Breslauer Str. 48,76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 Corresponding author. E-mail address: kerstin. cuhls@isi. fraunhofer. de (K. Cuhls.
& Social Change 2. Objectives of the national foresight process The BMBF itself in a call for tender formulated four specific targets.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 The topics were handled, internally assessed and reassessed several times via an internal database and scientific papers.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 The topic fields were: 1. Life sciences and biotechnology 2. Information and communication technology 3. Materials and their production processes 4. Nanotechnology 5. Optics/photonics/optoelectronics 6. Industrial production processes
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 3. 2. Search phase of the process The second phase of the foresight process encompassed a further national and international search, interviews with Monitoring Panel participants,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 For the survey, in September 2008 altogether 19.365 persons from German companies, academia, associations and single persons (consultants or persons
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 3. 4. Some results In the end, eight new future fields (broader fields) with a different perspective as well as single future topics in all 20
This future field needs a new dimension in research on systemic change, including very different disciplines.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 How are organisations or companies in other countries dealing with crosscutting issues and future topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and beyond?
generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options, along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policy-makers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design.
enhancing the capacity for change within a given policy field by building a common awareness of the current situation and future challenges,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 Reconfiguring the policy system: in a way that makes it more apt to address long-term challenges.
the system will react and change. There will therefore be an effect on the policy system itself,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 divisions (Abteilungen and Referate) and experts in BMBF were organised very cautiously
An Attitudinal Perspective, Technological forecasting and Social Change, vol. 25,1984, pp. 281 292.16 K. Cuhls, K. Blind, H. Grupp, Innovations for our future.
Navigating the Complex Landscape of Policy strategies, Technological forecasting & Social Change, vol. 75,2008, pp. 462 482.20 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R. Johnston
, Future-oriented technology analysis as a Driver of strategy and Policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management, vol. 20,2008, pp. 78 83,1. 21 K. Cuhls, Changes in conducting foresight in Japan, in:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 22 P. Warnke, G. Heimeriks, Technology foresight as innovation policy instrument:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197
Scenario planning in public policy: Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors Axel Volkery, Teresa Ribeiro European Environment Agency, Strategic Futures Group, Kongens Nytorv 6, DK 1050
and international organisations 1. Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 This article does not represent any official opinion of the European Environment Agency,
& Social Change Methodological approaches to scenario planning are covered well in the academic literature. Their use and impacts in the realm of public policy is treated,
9. Ideally, scenario planning helps policy-makers making better sense of changes in their external environment, spotting early warning signals and refining perceptions of existing or emerging problems and corresponding problem-solving strategies 10.
In the longer run, it can trigger cultural change in the way institutions and organisations approach their long-term future
and make them more adaptive to external changes 11, 12. Scenario planning needs to be rooted in a sufficient understanding of the milieu in
and vice versa 13.1199 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 The limitations of the policy cycle concept have been discussed widely.
The picture changes when it comes to the phase of policy design and implementation. Notwithstanding the fact that many strategic policy documents extend their validity beyond legislative cycles (take the case of national sustainable development strategies for example) a short-term,
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 and organisational performance. To identify relevant literature a number of experts were asked for suggestions.
A comparison of four scenario exercises related to global change applications suggests climate scenarios are used mostly to support further modeling and analysis,
and changes in their views on how best to respond to these challenges 27. Views on climate change changed,
The value in close collaboration between scenario 1201 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 developers and users, particularly at the beginning and ending stages of a scenario exercise,
can also be shown for scenario exercises related to global change applications 17. Process is an important factor,
2) change executive branch and Congressional rules to increase pressure to consider such forecasts; 3) engage public and media with such forecasts more effectively;
T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 4. Reviewing practitioners'perspectives 4. 1. Relevance
Those networks of actors are seldom willing to accept changes in core aspects of relevant policies.
A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 UK government's strategy on flood and coastal erosion risk management,
T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 made, however, towards getting scenario planning more fully incorporated into processes of policy design, choice and implementation.
adapt structures and decisions to new insights and trigger more long-term changes in the organisations'overall awareness for constant anticipation, learning and adaptation 12,43.
From this point of view, some general rules of 1205 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 conduct can be agreed on,
2005.15 T. R. Dye, Understanding Public policy, Prentice hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1984.1206 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198
, K. Fisher-Vanden, D. W. Keith, L. O. Mearns, H. M. Pitcher, C. E. Rosenzweig, M d. Webster, Global-change scenarios:
their development and use, Sub-report 2. 1b of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2. 1 by the U s. Climate change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Department of energy
Change 72 (2005) 161 173.37 R. Lempert, Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful?
Change 17 (2007) 73 85.40 J. A. Dewar, Assumption-based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge, 2002,
She is a member of the Global Agenda Council on Strategic foresight of the World Economic Forum. 1207 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207
Despite this belief, almost all Foresight implied wider dimensions Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 Corresponding author.
10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.013 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change stretching into social, ecological, political and value matters.
To introduce inclusiveness will require a change in mindset by programme sponsors, organisers, practitioners, the direct participants and the audience to
which has undergone such a marked erosion in recent years with the shift towards a postmodern world 1209 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221-A dissatisfaction
great patience and extremely good communication skills will be needed. 1210 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 clime.
O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 2. 3. Coping with social inclusion Wider participation in Foresight faces severe but not insurmountable obstacles.
and society 1212 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 4. Participants from the fields of ethics, theology, social theory
O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 but usually rate themselves as‘familiar,
1214 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 Widespread participation Inclusivity explicitly needs widespread participation and, because of the breadth of the behavioural traits
O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 CSH claims to recognise existing inequalities of wealth, status, power, authority, gender, race and sexual orientation
In this way Inclusive foresight will involve fundamental reforms and changes in its current social approach. Ulrich 17 19 and more recently Dempster in her description of sympoiesis 20 extended systems thinking to provide a better understanding of the issues associated with determining system boundaries and the roles of values associated with the implementation and measurement of practical results.
O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 4. 1. 2. Sources of power 4. The management process of Inclusive foresight ought to be open for all to see
23.1217 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 5. Foresight's democratic deficit and nano artifacts The root of Foresight's deficit lies
technological feasibility and artifact desirability of a nano artifact. 1218 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 participation in Foresight relating to these issues.
There are a number of attempts for deliberative change processes in the nano-field. By suggesting mechanisms to achieve Inclusive foresight the aim is to contribute to the discussions on the future of the nano-field.
VALS is a consumer Fig. 4. Growth of a critical mass favouring public acceptance. 1219 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208
Critical systems Thinking for Citizens and Managers, Working Paper No. 23,1998. 1220 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 23
both are at the Manchester Institute of Innovation research at the Manchester Business school, the University of Manchester. 1221 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011