Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 Tel.:++33 621 716 728 (mobile. E-mail address:
& Social Change 1. 1. Anticipatory coordination for the responsible development of nanotechnology These general challenges become very specific in the case of nanoscience and nanotechnology.
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 There is increasing recognition that innovation emergence is a nonlinear process,
Of course the technology options themselves may shape the landscapes that they encounter could initiate a change in industrial sectors, in regulation etc.
Evolutionary theories of technical changes emphasise that for innovation one should think of variation and selection (and retention of those selections.
evolutionary models of technical change; the innovation chain+,and endogenous futures. This framework which can help in structuring large amounts of heterogeneous data,
what they have to offer. 2. 1. Lacunae in evolutionary models of technical change How do innovations come to be selected from a number of possible options;
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 Sociologically inclined innovation scholars have focused on analysing and prospecting innovation/selection activities, studying open-ended situations of emergence,
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 Fig. 1. Innovation chain+as a mosaic of co-evolving arenas of innovation and selection with innovation journeys showing coupling, shifting,
deadends etc. 1226 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 For structuring the co-evolutionary scenario narratives,
and the role of technology platforms which came about through institutional entrepreneurship between the framing conditions, the bubbles and the coordinating bodies. 1227 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222
1228 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 Fig. 3. Evolution of governance, 2000 2008.1229 D. K
. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 It is not in the scope of this paper to detail the case history of the emergence of RRI for nanotechnology,
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 3. 2. The scope of the workshop and the nano context at the time From the situation outlined in Section 3. 1,
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 These elements provide building blocks to create three scenarios each of them a plausible story about how they might play out (including twists and turns).
The further effect is that this medical option becomes available only to those who can obtain it in another way through private clinics. 1232 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009
Those wishing to exact change are faced with an entangled web of best practices, codes with varying degrees of transparency in how they are acted upon.
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 option emerges but is only available for a limited number of people.
(and flourish) to take the university research to the market, 1234 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 with the prospect of takeover by larger firms in 3 to 4
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 aimed at temporary governance of developments are expected to reduce pressure on regulators so not supplanting regulation but inhibiting it all the same (regardless of good intentions).
but no further action initiated (until circumstances change)..The report pushing for mandatory government oversight, identifies many gaps
while some nanomaterials will be produced below that level. 1236 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 standards causes complication:
and interact within multi-stakeholder workshops. 1237 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 The scenarios use endogenous futures,
Change 75 (2008) 517 538.7 A. Rip, J. Schot, Identifying loci for influencing the dynamics of technological development, in:
Change 54 (1997) 251 268.9 R. van Merkerk, D. K. R. Robinson, The interaction between expectations, networks and emerging paths:
Change 75 (3 march 2008) 312 333.11 P. Larédo, E. Jolivet, E. Shove, S. Raman, A. Rip, E. Moors, B. Poti, G
Technical change and Economic theory, Pinter, London, 1988.26 P. A. David, Clio and the economics of QWERTY, Am.
33 1238 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 30 A. Rip, R. Kemp, Technological change, in:
Change 75 (3 march 2008) 312 333.35 A. Rip, M. van Amerom, Emerging de facto Agendas Around Nanotechnology:
Alongside this, he is also a part-time Technical Analyst at the Institute of Nanotechnology (UK) focusing on nanotechnologies in the agrifood sector. 1239 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239
offer a clear insight that smarter policy and corporate decision-making processes are needed to deal with recent crisis and the threat of discruptive changes.
Changes within society and nature are happening at a much higher speed than current institutions
in extreme cases, change only occurs with the retirement of old staff and recruitment of new staff.
Followiin the change of government in Denmark in late 2001 the energy research programmes were cut by two-thirds in 2002,
for example, the general national research strategy developed in the mid-1990s (Miljø-og Energiministeriet 1996a c). Danish energy research experienced considerable turbulence following the change in governnmen in late 2001.
Together with major changes in the Energy Authority and the ministry responsible for it, this turbulence had a major influence on the strategy activities of the Energy research programme.
However, at the beginning of the turbulent period following the change in government, the role of the Advisory Council changed slightly,
Technological forecasting and Social Change 73: 761 77. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 932 P. D. Andersen and M. Borup Gibbons, M.,C. Limoges, H. Nowotny, S. Schwartzman, P. Scott,
Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 3: 287 303. The Prime minister's Office. 2006: Progress, innovation and cohesion.
It is important to understand that the institutional changes and budget increases at the turn of the century represent attempts to shift public research away from a largely‘responsive'and mostly industrially-oriented mode to a more long-term, strategic mode.
and the nature of processes of deliberation. 5. 1. Variety and change in the meanings of Foresight The FNR Foresight was born out of the necessity for the FNR to define new research programmes.
Thematic field Research area Research domain Research axis Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Environmental sciences Global change and ecosystem Water management Drinking water
too impatient in wanting to implement change'.'Everyone (finally) realised that further discussions would be needed with the research communnit before agreement could be reached on priorities
This involved further thematic group meetings, a change of consultants, and a greater emphasis placed upon validating priorities with the necessary analysis
It is fair to say that this consultation exercise resulted in little change of the content of the priorities,
The FNR largely adopted these changes when it developed its thematic programmes but chose not to widen the Biomedical Programme to Chronic,
Overall, the successful conduct of the Foresight exercise and its implementation, together with all the other ongoing structural changes, indicate a growing maturity of the Luxembourg STI environment, particularly around public governance.
Technological forecasting and Social Change 73: 761 77. Glod, F.,C. Duprel, and M. Keenan. 2006.
but about the joint impact of public and private decision making on society's course of change and the interactions that precede formal decision making.
1) Policy informing by generating consolidated findings concerning the dynamics of change, future challenges and options and transmitting it to policy makers as an input into policy conceptualisation and design.
technology and innovation options among players, creating debate Awareness of the systemic character of change processes Foresight skills are developed in a wider circle Dialogues in new combinations of experts and stakeholders and a shared understanding
Adoption of foresight contents in the research and teaching agenda of organisations as well as in various disciplinary matters Improved coherence of policies Cultural changes towards longer
it is captured not fully by The english translation‘Vienna Looks to the Future knowledge means change'.
or as an even more radical change a less hierarchical governance approach in general, an approach that rewards crosscutting and horizontal initiatives.
Also with respect to the coherence of policies, more fundamental changes would probably be needed to reduce organisational barriers.
In Technical change and economic theory, ed. G. Dosi, C. Freeman, R. R. Nelson, G. Silverberg and L. Soete, 221 38.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 4: 462 82. Fagerberg, J.,D c. Mowery, and R. R. Nelson, eds. 2005.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 9: 1360 72. Weber, M. 2006. Foresight and portfolio analysis as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making.
and highlighted‘contesting values or problematic social changes of some kind'(O'connor 2004). This article is based on the collection of specific moments in
i e. demographic change'(Keenan 2002,55). Further, this particular case is not an illustration of what Loveridge and Street (2005,32) discuss as‘inclusivity in technology foresight studies'in which‘experts
Technological forecasting and Social Change 73, no. 1: 13 26. Georghiou, L. 2001. Third generation foresight:
Technological forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 8: 1157 75. Ratcliffe, J.,E. Krawczyk, and R. Kelly. 2006.
and co-directs the Technology policy & Assessment Center there//tpac. gatech. edu. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081
As a loose analogy, consider the change from the handmade automobile to the assembly line Model T Ford beginning in 1908.
But, even more importantly, it familiarizes users with data-based technology analyses The manager who gets the prescribed FTA A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1071 outputs upon
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1072 Innovation indicators are rooted empirical measures in models of how technological innovation proceeds.
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1073 Whatever the route the key is that,
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1074! The SOFC topic map (upper right, based on factor analysis of keywords appearing in multiple papers) shows an intriguing bcluster of clustersq in the upper region.
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1075 o three companies each show 7
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1076! Within the Scorecard, the Capabilities Spectrum synthesizes information to draw implications regarding this company's relative strengths.!
Collectively, the integration of the four QTIP factors results in a qualitative change in FTA.
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1077 bprocess managementq factors should be considered for all types of QTIP players:!
& Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1078 miningq exploits the information compiled by S&t and other (e g.,
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1079! 8: 40 am: I search a compilation of Georgia Tech publication records to augment the VP's awareness of who is active in fuel cells.
To fully realize QTIP potential requires significant process management change:!Systematize strategic business decision processes.!Mandate explicit technology information products be provided for decision stages in such processes.!
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1080 But it is worth the effort.
J. Watts, A l. Porter, Innovation forecasting, Technological forecasting and Social Change 56 (1997) 25 47.4 N c. Newman, A l. Porter, J. Yang, Information professionals:
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1081
This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 05:11 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:
or a development that could contribute to the realisation of changes with significant implications for future R&i activities.
to (1) major changes in the global context,(2) growing needs in Finnish industry and society, or (3) anticipated scientific and technological achievements.
(i e. how likely was it that the change would unfold as described?)and (ii) the significance of the factor (i e. how significant was this driving force for future R&i activities?.
Technological forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 4: 483 95. Cuhls, K. 2003. From forecasting to foresight processes new participative foresight activities in Germany.
Technological forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 4: 462 82. Georghiou, L, . and M. Keenan. 2006.
Technological foresight and Social Change 73, no. 7: 761 77. Havas, A. 2003. Evolving foresight in a small transition economy.
Technological forecasting and Social Change 74, no. 4: 413 32. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:11 03 december 2014 Axes of balance in foresight 1001 Irvine, J,
Technological forecasting and Social Change 74, no. 5: 608 26. Könnölä, T.,Ahlqvist, A. Eerola, S. Kivisaari,
Technological forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 8: 1157 75. Salmenkaita, J.-P, . and A. Salo. 2002.
Saritas and Smith invited attendees to answer a number of questions about shaping forces, sources of change and their impacts, particularly in terms of new challenges and opportunities.
toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303, in press. 2 T. J. Gordon, J. C. Glenn (Eds.
and Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063.6 S. Kuhlmann, P. Boekholt, L. Georghiou, K. Guy, J.-A. He'raud, P. Laredo, T
impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461.10 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R
, Future-oriented technology analysis impacts and implications for policy and decision making, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137.14 I. Nonaka, H. Takeuchi, The Knowledge-creating Company, Oxford university Press, Oxford
and their institutional environment asking for institutional change and strategic political action. In an early attempt to explore dependency between field dynamics and Foresight success
These figures of change synthesise the evolution and reconfiguration of professional communities, pools of scientific publications.
from 1996 to 2006) is compared with the changes occurring in‘‘all science''(50%over the same period),‘agricultural and biological sciences''(30),
and innovation field does not exclude the exploration of radical changes in these dynamics. To sum up
navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.10 B.-A°.Lundvall (Ed.),National systems of Innovation:
Towards a Theory of innovation and Interactive learning, Pinter, London, 2009.11 F. Malerba, L. Orsenigo, Technological regimes and sectoral patterns of innovative activities, Industrial and Corporate Change 6 (1
refining the co-evolutionary multilevel perspective, Technological forecasting and Social Change 72 (6)( 2005) 681 696.14 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of a useful theory of innovation
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (5)( 2007) 608 626.28 J. Irvine, B. R. Martin, Foresight in Science:
A Practical Guide to Leading Organizational Change and Renewal, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1997.38 T. Ko nno la, G. C. Unruh, J. Carrillo
industrial activities in wireless communications, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (9)( 2004) 897 912.41 A. Bonaccorsi, Search Regimes and the Industrial Dynamics of Science, in:
accepted 1 october 2004 Abstract Every month, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI) professionals assemble more than 100 short abstracts of developments that they perceive to be signals of change, discontinuities, inflection points, outliers, or disruptive developments.
and SRI International's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.
and changes in cultural factors and 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
kpatton@sric-bi. com, www. sric-bi. com. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 public opinion means that highly structured strategic plans are limiting if not downright dangerous.
and to gauge changes in the commercial, technical, and cultural environments on a monthly basis. James B. Smith originally brought the scanning process to SRI International in 1979 with the assistance of the futurist consulting group Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc,
and pattern-recognition abilities to identify early signals of change, discontinuities, inflection points, and disruptive forces in the business environment.
and in anticipating environmental changes, such as regulatory or political dynamics...S ense-and-respond firms must excel at sensing subtle change earlier
and in responding to it faster than do their competitors. Q The K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1083 marketplace is a turbulent confluence of commercial, cultural,
and technological forces. The most important tools for remaining afloat and thriving in the turbulence are a constant awareness of the changes going on around your organization
and the ability to sense, make sense of, and adapt to these changes. Although a number of dramatic new information-technology (IT) and artificial-intelligence (AI) tools are emerging to perform monitoring and analysis functions
the complexity and breadth of the issues and forces driving marketplace turbulence militate, for the time being, against complete dependence on such tools.
and systematically marshal the pattern-recognition capabilities of a group of professionals to identify important changes in the business environment
competencies, and mission. 2. The promise The organizations that survive today's marketplace turbulence will be those that can adapt rapidly to change.
The organizations that thrive in today's turbulence will be those that live for change, are constantly aware of developments emerging beyond their own particular current domain,
Organizations that implement systematic and ongoing processes such as open intelligence systems to tap the external business environment continually for signals of change increase their odds of adapting successfully.
discontinuities, and signals of change. The very title of Andy Grove's (former chairman and CEO of Intel's) management book Only the Paranoid Survive 4 trumpets the premise that a necessary behavioral tic of successful managers is the constant,
Dorothy Leonard-Barton, in K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1084 her Wellsprings of Knowledge 5, maintains that the process of introducing external streams
Simple awareness of signals of change is insufficient in and of itself to provide an organization with a competitive edge.
A futures orientation among decision makers is necessary to take advantage of foreknowledge of change. Eric D. Beinhocker and Sarah Kaplan in Mckinsey Quarterly 6 talk of creating bprepared mindsq
however, on practical solutions for methodically gleaning early signals of change from the surroundings or for cultivating a futures orientation in employees and managers.
Scanning processes are tools for systematizing the collection of early signals of change and for nurturing a futures orientation more broadly in an organization. 3. The process The scanning process is necessarily a continuous one.
Over time, participants learn that change rather than stability is the coin of the commercial realm
or products that participants believe to be early signals that portend significant changes. They most typically come from publications
Signals of change! Discontinuities! Outliers (events or developments that are off the current trend line! Items that defy conventional wisdom K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1085!
Inflection points! Disruptive developments or technologies. Participating scanners cast their nets broadly to bring in signals of change from various domains,
including:!Politics! Regulation! Culture! Consumer behavior! Public opinion! Business processes! Science! Technology. The breadth of scope inherent in the diversity of the categories represents one of the most important strengths of the scanning process.
K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1086 month the database administrator closes off submissions for the month and directs the continuing stream of abstracts into a new set for the next month.
Another abstract K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1087 helps clients reframe design issues by citing designer Dan Formosa
Frequent calls by the meeting facilitator for new clusters of abstracts or discussion topics are necessary to mine the month's abstracts as thoroughly as possible for signals of change.
& Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1088 the abstracts'data points to make sure that the meeting does not degenerate into a discussion unrelated to the real-world marketplace
K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1089 backgrounds, from technology to specialties in consumer behavior, from engineering to anthropology,
K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1090 Employees participate primarily on a voluntary basis
and experience to assist companies in creating their own internal K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1091 scanning systems.
scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.
K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1092 8 Jessie Scanlon, Big business:
Patton is available at kpatton@sric-bi. com. More information about SRIC-BI's Scan program is available at www. sric-bi. com. K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005
and achieve change through the gradual shift that would entail. A tougher but still limited approach
Structurally oriented foresight most often seems to be invoked at times of change. For Europe, a wave of foresight activity was associated with the accession of new EU Member States from the so-called‘‘transition economies''.
Estonia and Malta) with the explicit aim of the eforesee project as being‘‘to examine the potential role of foresight in dealing with the structural changes to the economy that accompany the accession process,
and the participants and operators of foresight exercises who confront the realities of the need for structural change and a process-oriented approach.
The question needs to be raised on how effective structural foresight is in achieving change. In the university sector the scenarios of change have attracted public attention
but so far the system remains largely unreformed. One reason for this is that is many national environments there is insufficient autonomy
J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 249 engineering major changes required in EU research and innovation policy in the coming years.
toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.2 T. Kuwahara, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, Foresight in Japan, in:
government exercises, Technological forecasting and Social Change 60 (1)( 1999) 37 54 (18pp..5 J. Gavigan et al.
a methodological experiment, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 558 582.26 K. Cuhls, R. Johnston, Corporate foresight, in:
experiences from the preparation of an international research program, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 483 495.36 M. Cariola, S. Rolfo, Evolution in the rationales of foresight in Europe
methodologies and selected applications, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516.38 J. Edler, L. Georghiou, Public procurement and innovation resurrecting the demand side, Research policy
allows stakeholders to become better aware of signals of change and threats and consequently to put in place preparedness mechanisms to act on time.
and difficulties to provide new and fresh perspectives for change. This may be supported by ensuring extensive stakeholder participation through the diversity and high number of participants.
and the inclusion of diverse and alternative viewpoints that can challenge incumbent and path-dependent approaches hindering especially radical changes in the innovation system.
process and impact. technological forecasting and social change, Technological forecasting and Social Change 73 (7)( 2005) 761 777.6 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C. Cagnin, F. Scapolo
, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 608 626.10 A. Salo, T. Ko nno la, M. Hjelt, Responsiveness in foresight management:
and other technological solutions to the climate change crisis as opposed to change in lifestyle and corporate practice);
identifying turning points and indicators of change, developing narratives of future histories and accounts of affairs at a future point in time in a way enabling comparison across break out groups, and so on.
though as much for technocratic reasons as for more democratic ones (leading to criticisms that this sort of FTA fails to explore prospects for radical social change,
toward integration of the field & new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.4 R. Johnston, Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis, in:
a case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (9)( 2009) 1208 1221.13 I. Miles, UK Foresight:
Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.16 M. Jaspers, H. Banthien, J. Mayer-Ries, New forms
, Integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies, Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176.25 Advisory Group on Nanotechnology, New dimensions for manufacturing:
a comparison of two methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 73 (6)( 2006) 679 704.34 H. Linstone, M. Turoff (Eds.
'3. Governance The shift from‘Government'to‘Governance'and to the new global‘regulatory'state explains the substantial changes in legislation,
7. 2. FTA for corporate decision making The challenges faced by corporations reflect the structural changes taking place in the economy and society.
flows. 3. New business models for the design, production, distribution, retail and management of products and services. 4. Responses to the challenge of sustainability and changes in demography, in consumer behaviours and in social values,
and considerations that are emerging in the landscape of governance due to changes and transformations in society.
40 H. Z. Evan, Seminar at Economic Commission of Europe, Warsaw, 1973.41 F. Davitaya, Changes in the Atmosphere and Some Problems of its Protection, in Society and the Environment:
seeing as emerging critical forces causing change and what they are hearing or learning about the types of major changes
or discontinuities that may be expected in the short, medium and long term.''''This Big Picture Survey (BPS) was designed primarily to address this concern.
or sources of change and what might be their impacts, particularly where these may create entirely new challenges and opportunities?
factors and patterns that are pervasively causing change in society generally. The speed of change may be deemed comparatively slow
or fast depending upon one's vantage point, but the important aspect of a trend is its pervasiveness.
and complex factors involving diverse actors that lead and cause societal change. What is often apparent is that most stakeholders are relatively powerless alone to affect the direction
and interpret the likely pattern of change''in the future (3 p. xiii). O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 293 Potential trends Possible new trends grow from innovations, projects,
Trends are those change factors that arise from broadly generalizable change and innovation. They are experienced by everyone
and create or drive change within one's business or institutional environment. These tend to be more immediate and relevant and distinct to different types of stakeholders
Driver of change examples Climate policies and resource practices; Major S&t developments and their societal impacts;
Policy or regulatory changes that lead to changes in government priorities, company actions and investments;
and forces that change from year to year and may be amenable to stakeholder actions and strategic choices by way of one's investments, new alignments, infrastructure, R&d,
which may be amenable to changes according to one's strategic choices, investments, R&d activities or foresight knowledge and strategies.
and the other (less critical but still relevant) change drivers. 2. 3. Wild cards or shocks Because most people have experienced surprise situations
so for this survey it will not be possible to rigorously provide a single definition that fits all situations so the following examples are useful to guide those seeking to imagine what could shock the systems of incremental change.
and similar innovations create powerful forces that change the business and social environments and personal information practices;
the changes tend to be more significant because they can alter so many other domains. 2. 5. Weak signals The final key term is‘‘weak signals''.
''Weak signals are the first important indications of a change. These may be understood as advanced, somewhat noisy and generally socially situated indicators of change in trends and systems that constitute raw informational material for enabling anticipatory action.
The benefits of weak signals can be seen when assessing their significance in an organization or a field concerned
''which more holistically describes how these signals relate to change. Citing from Igor Ansoff, Hiltunen 16 provides a definition of weak signals as:‘‘
but not confirmed changes that may later become more significant indicators of critical forces for development, threats, business and technical innovation.
it is rather clear that trends involving technology change and uncertainties about environmental, climatic and energy systems change are on the top of respondents minds.
The general area of health system developments and changes is also prominent. Perhaps the most provocative ones are the trends describing broad new domains of human evolution (e g. genetic manipulation
Clear belief that health-medicine, climate and the environment will be central to our futures and offer possibilities for improvements, sometimes through dramatic changes;
Personalised, genetic and molecular medicine are likely to drive many changes in health economics, and possible migration of energy sourcing to more efficient and sustainable modes may be available sooner than thought.
In contrast to the trends, the drivers are grounded more in current areas of expected leverage such as society-cultural change factors,
Many of the most articulately described drivers were associated those with the management uncertainties of change in the environmental, governance and globalization response systems.
religious and team sport identities Changes in health risk perception Ethical investment in development projects to promote sustainability Science & Tech. 46 Maturation of S, T and Humanities relationship
cultural, physical and biological improvements New investments in the Internet capacity improvement Progress in genetic therapy, stem cells and molecular medicine pharmacology Sunburst of change in vehicle technology
and people well being Human animal communication Energy 12 New transportation based on new types of flying cars on hydrogen change all traffic patterns Nano thin film solar breakthroughs
-based World war Change of earth rotation causes climate change Accidental nuclear spasm leads to war Terrorist attacks create police states Global disasters from alignment of volcanoes, tsunamis
Overall, the lists provide a fertile field for some real dramatic change scenarios centred on some key discontinuities.
and more experienced contributors have with how fast changes can really appear from insight to application.
and Africa Technologies out of control Changes in the gravity of the earth O. Saritas,
On discontinuity and scenario development, Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 2, 175 194.12 S. Mendonc¸A m. P. Cunha, F. Ruff, J. Kaivo-oja
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