Facilitating policy implementation (widening the change capacities in a certain policy community..Embedding participation in policy-making..
Changes at the landscape level create pressure on the regime..Destabilization of the regime creates windows of opportunity for niche innovations (Geels 2002,2005;
The second way to apply a roadmapping approach to policy design is to facilitate systemic change by identifying those societal needs
Systemic change can be facilitated through different policies, e g. regulation and taxes, and through policy instruments that, for example, focus on public procurement,
In IPRM, the second level of policies, policy instruments and regulatory changes is critical. IPRM endorses the positioning of the policy practices in a dynamic socio-technical context,
Present Medium term Long term Present stage Change 2 Change 3 Change 4 Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Present stage Change 2
Change 3 Change 4 Present stage Change 2 Change 3 Change 4 Technology roadmap 1 Policies:
instruments and regulatory changes Sectoral development: new solutions, convergence, disruptions Key enablers: opportunities based on emerging technologies Technology roadmap 2 Technology roadmap n Figure 1. Generic structure of systemic transformation roadmap. 182.
A further driver is a demographic change in advanced economies that is reflected in the residential housing sector The aging population requires the adaptation of homes
instruments and regulatory changes Sectoral development: new solutions, convergence, disruptions Enabling technologies Energy-efficiency requirements, energy price and availability;
Demographic change in advanced economies DRIVERS: Support to strategy processes and global market foresight MARKETS: Sub-optimisation, price dominates;
instruments and regulatory changes Sectoral development: solutions, convergence, disruptions Key enablers Technology roadmap 2: Extending natural resources Technology roadmap 3:
In addition, diffusion of innovations often depends on changes in infrastructure, information systems, organizational practices and social institutions.
Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory',Research policy, 33: 897 920..(2005)‘ Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations:
Refining the co-evolutionary multilevel perspectivve'Technological forecasting and Social Change, 72: 681 96. Geels, F. W. and Schot, J. 2007)‘ Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways',Research policy, 36: 399 417.
Assessing rationale, process and impact',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 73: 761 77. Heiskanen, E.,Kivisaari, S.,Lovio, R. and Mickwitz, P. 2009)‘ Designed to travel?
Kostoff, R. N.,Boylan, R. and Simons, G r. 2004)‘ Disruptive technology roadmaps',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 71: 141 59.
Overall process and detailed modules',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 72: 567 83. Phaal, R. and Muller, G. 2009)‘ An architectural framework for roadmapping:
Towards visual strategy',Technological forecasting & Social Change, 76:39 49. Phaal, R.,Farrukh, C. J. P. and Probert, D. R. 2004)‘ Technology roadmapping a planning framework for evoluttio and revolution',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 71:5 26.
Rotmans, J.,Kemp, R. and Van Asselt, M. 2001)‘ More evoluttio than revolution: Transition management in public policy',Foresight, 3: 15 31.
Process flexibility refers to the ability to make methodologgica changes in how certain results are obtained such as:
thus to make changes in overall design and objectives of the entire project (see Fig. 3). 4. 2 Foresight as an integrator Transnational foresight activities may be seen to claim excesssiv resources
Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.
'Technological forecasting and Social Change, in press. Kaiser, R. and Prange, H. 2004)‘ Managing diversity in a system of multilevel governance:
(or make them aware) for drastic changes and surprises/shocks. Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 208 221 doi:
Early warning signals are the first important indications of a change. These signals are often difficult to spot.
innovation, emerging, issues, impact, change, future, emerging, promising, threatening, solutioons discoveries, problems, crisis, tensions, growth, breakthroughs, breakdowns,
The vast amount of data coming from these sources can be analysed in terms of potential signals of change,
or reveal changes, modifications and disruptions of existing emerging issues in a significant way. Automatic tools are seen as methods to support the scanning for potentially highly important weak signals
This can enable faster and timelier assessments and thus earlier detection of events, changes and possible weak signals.
Overall, micro-blogging is one of the social web tools that could change how science is perceived and how 214.
Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 76: 327 38. Freund, F. 2011)‘ Pre-earthquake signals:
Articulate credible observations about current or imminent changes (either sudden, gradual, or between these poles).
and immediately see the impacts of these changes on the results: indeed, one reason for adopting the RPM approach was that it admits incomplete information about criterion weights
institutional changes; and the role of EU in relation to global governance. Table 2 provides an example of such a crosscutting challenge that synthesizes issues from different thematic areas.
The need to change current ways in which essential natural resources are used..The need to anticipate
and adapt to societal changes..The need for more effective and transparent governannc for the EU and the world.
Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.
Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 74: 608 26.230. T. Ko nno la et al.
Implications for forecastting'Technological forecasting and Social Change, 62:79 90. Martin, B. and Johnston, R. 1999)‘ Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system:
Experiences in Britain, Australia and New zealand',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 60:37 54. Mckinsey & Company (2009)‘ How companies are benefiting from Web 2. 0:
Examining ways of consolidating early detection schemes',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 78: 375 85. Salo, A.,Brummer, V. and Ko nno la, T. 2009)‘ Axes of balance in foresight:
Schultz, W. L. 2006)‘ The cultural contradictions of managing change: Using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context',Foresight, 8: 3 12.
'demographic change and‘active ageing'(EU Commission 2009: 19ff) These transitions are considered also to be‘megatrends'in other publications.
blockbusters of the forces that change. In a hierarchical trend system, they are active at different levels.
shift to Asia, migration flows to Europe, urbanisation a cocooning effect to reorient more towards local region Demographic change Increased life expectancy, population ageing and fewer children in Western world, rising world
mass customisation Change in work Individual is a lifetime entrepreneur, time and location flexibility, and mental flexibility necessary (lifelong learning), greater importance of women in business and society Increasing mobility and transport Due to increasing global flows of goods and leisure Increasing
The change from proposing a technology-driven cooperative project to a problemdriive is underestimated sometimes. Normally, a researcher applies for a project with a proposal based on technology-oriented programmes.
A factor analysis approach',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 68: 131 49. Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegemann, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
Kolz, H. and Hadnagy, C. 2012)‘ A regional foresight process to cope with demographic change: Future radar 2030 (Zukunftsradar 2030)',International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy, forthcoming special issue.
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