Adaption to upcoming changes might be considered more important in these countries. The third implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to tolerance for deviant ideas.
Following the general elections and the change of Government in November 2001, the ministries were reorganised,
Also following the change in Government, the budget for the technology foresight programme was reduced to DKK 18 million (ca. EUR 2. 4 million).
navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (May 4))(2008) 462 482.6 O. Saritas, Systemic foresight methodology, in:
L. B. Rasmussen (Ed.),Facilitating Change Using Interactive Methods in Organisations, Communities, and Networks, Polyteknisk Forlag, DK, 2011.14 E. H. Schein, Organisational Culture and Leadership, 3rd ed.,John Wiley & Sons, NY, 2004.15 G. Morgan
and workshops to increase awareness about possible future changes. We used an independent evaluation that was conducted in 2010 by the University of Twente 21, based on interviews with 21 politicians and civil servants and a document analysis. Furthermore,
'such as the dynamics of change, future challenges, risks and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses of the current system, visions for change,
to gain a better understanding of the future of the issue at stake, the degrees of uncertainty involved, the coherence of future developments, the speed of change of developments,
in order to determine whether policy assumptions develop in accordance with the intended direction and velocity of change N. Rijkens-Klomp,
Also, in the‘organizational foresight'study, the various foresight studies of the future carried out by the government departments are designed to form initial ideas and opinions about organisational change.
foresight methods stimulate the user to take future developments and changes into account in a structured way.
and change is embraced rather than opposed. They also had the impression that future-oriented policy-making is by its nature a kind of well-informed policy-making.
Hazeu, E. van der Linde, P. Rademaker, On the use of futures research for organizational change in Dutch government ministries, Futures 12 (2010) 23 36.25 O. Da
the case of Japan, Technological forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 431 447. N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 26
and recommendations which are adaptive to change). Ko nno la et al. 15 claim that stakeholders'diversity1 is important to foster innovation capabilities through the creation of viable alternatives (scenarios) that escape the existing dominant designs
Moreover, there is also the need to adapt the process and results to changes in the environment.
and other changes that could influence the realisation of the proposed idea. The results from the above initiatives were complemented with the outcomes from two brainstorming workshops and 106 interviews with industry representatives.
and required changes to have realised these. All these activities produced a total of 754 research issues to be explored further
Sustainable manufacturing possible due to cultural change of individuals and corporations supported by the enforcement of rules
joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 27 65.6 O. Saritas, Systems thinking for Foresight,(Ph d. thesis), Manchester
Toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303.8 T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, V. Brummer, Foresight for European Coordination:
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 608 626.16 L a. Costanzo, Strategic foresight in a high-speed environment, Futures 36 (2004
experiences from the preparation of an international research programme, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495.30 D. White, J. Fortune, Current practice in project management an empirical
Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 Corresponding author.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 The contribution describes methodologies and approaches developed for the purpose.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 thus advance the existing literature, on how the business sector (e g. industry, industrial associations and foundations) uses FTA TOOLS for a variety of reasons.
demographic change; increased competition and the need to do well in national and global rankings; demands for a greater emphasis upon problem-oriented interdisciplinary research;
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 Fabiana Scapolo: She works at the European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461
Towards Innovation Foresight: Two empirical case studies on future TV experiences for/by users Katrien De Moor a b, 1,,
, due to the anticipated changes. However, as is argued in this paper, this does not imply that users simply lack the capacity,
(i) anticipation of the drivers and weak signals of change with the intention of being prepared for whatever might follow from the ongoing and future social, economic and political mayhem with a rich understanding of systems, their history and possible futures,(ii) analysis of different stakeholder perspectives
For the internet and connected TV personas finally, the biggest difference that was found between the positive and negative persona was that the former is ready and eager to experience future TV now and that the latter emphasises the importance of gradual change
Proceedings Participatory Design Conference, 2008, pp. 186 189.14 J. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technological forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 268
and targets according to requirements of strategic or dynamic changes. This allows a better allocation of resources
in order to efficiently respond to such changes. 4 The fourth phase (strategic learning) is based on the model proposed by Kaplan and Norton 12,
and experiences as well as obtain consensus on the changes needed in their existing BSC, i e. formalised in this way a‘‘contract''to implement a new management model.
The involvement of community leadership reflected a change in the operationalisation of the institution's strategy
it was possible to see that the institution was not able to shape a process to build a shared understanding of stakeholders'views as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes.
(thus supporting phase 1). It does so by enabling a shared understanding of stakeholders'views as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes (thus supporting phase 2). This builds upon knowledge
ilities and dyna mic change s, all of which are critical to be tter unde rstan d ways in
S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 57 intelligence systems, direction setting, priority setting, strategy formulation, marketing, organisational change,
and acquire necessary capabilities to meet changes, including the challenges resulting from the above listed trends 38.2.2.2.
and led to strategic changes within the company. Thus, the project filled the third key role of foresight as described above
At the same time, changes in the image of the future for example, due to an adapted vision as a result of leadership activities can mean that the transition path has to be adapted
While the setting of WINN has undergone two major changes toward more openness the grounding and reasoning leading to these changes were not clearly identifiable.
Despite the communication of openness the management of WINN should embrace external partners to a higher degree. The partner network could be used to a higher degree within mid-to long-term foresight instruments
Beyond that, collaborative innovation requires a change in the mindset of the people within the organizations.
factors in new product success, European Journal of Marketing 14 (1980) 277 292.2 J. Tidd, Managing Innovation Integrating Technological, Market and Organization Change
its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm, Technological forecasting and Social Change 78 (2009) 231 243.6 H. Chesbrough, Open innovation:
and tipping points, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 715 730.19 K. Cuhls, Foresight with Delphi surveys in Japan, Technology analysis & Strategic management 13 (2001) 555 569.20 K
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 2006.24 J. Hausschildt, S. Salomo, Innovations Management, 4th ed.,Vahlen, Munich, 2007.25 R. Solow, Technical change
of new business fields, Technological forecasting and Social Change 79 (2012) 819 831.40 O. Gassmann, E. Enkel
Those lead to significant changes both in everyday life and business models under the combined influence of technological, organisational and behavioural innovations.
even methodollogie that have been developed to deal explicitly with a range of potential futures are reaching their limits in the face of the scope and pace of change in the creative content sector.
a stepwise approach was allowed followwed It new insights on the nature of potentially disruptive changes, which had been generated in a previous stage,
as well as about the lessoon learnt from the methodological approach devellope for dealing with fast and potentially disruptive changes of both a scientific-technological and socioeconomic nature.
and user interaction and we highlighted some essential trends of change, identifyyin opportunities and threats for the European indusstr in each of the sub-sectors.
unchanging nature of consumer demands and the radical changes brought into the creative content sector by digital technologies,
However, the uncertainntie over the direction of change and the radically different consequences this could have on social and economic sustainability of the sector in Europe made it impossible after the analysis stage to draw any initiia conclusions upon
in order to review the results and change their assessment as necessary (Friedewald et al, 2007). In a nutshell, the Delphi survey revealed only a small number of topics where experts did not reach a consensus about the likely future development.
innovative enterprises that experts regaar as the drivers of technological and business changes can be supported in an environment that is currently dominated by a few globally active corporations;
While all the steps leading to the policy analysis revealed important findings on potential directions of change and consequently possible challenges for policy-making,
where the fast pace of change can rapidly make any foresight outcomes obsolete. As to the adequacy of the methodology for shapiin a vision of the creative content sector as such, we can conclude that the process helped raise key issues and controversies relevant to the sector as depicted by the four scenarios.
Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75 (4), 462 482. Friedewald, M, von Oertzen, J and Cuhls, K 2007:
Technological forecasting and Social Change, 73 (4), 321 333. Ilmolaa, L and O Kuusibb 2006. Filters of weak signals hinder foresight:
and emerging drivers of change Builds trust and shared basis of experience between system actors Detect
and analyze weak signals that enable actors to‘foresee'changes ahead Facilitate better understanding of potentially disruptive change Provide anticipatory intelligence about the systems
and their changes to system actors Development of significant new ways of thinking about challenges and opportunities Promote collective learning through open exchanges of information
But it must also be well described so that the context of change, incluudin both its challenges and opportunities, can be appreciated.
Over the years the program went through numerous changes, in the host organization (from National Reseaarc Council 2002 2004, to Privy council office 2005 2006, to Industry Canada 2007 2008.
With a change in government and a progressive demotion of the NSA function as the new government became more confident in its abilities,
and the change in government led to a more tightly controlled system for strategic messaging and press relations Stakeholder integration:
For examplle recognition of the role of information technology (IT) provides a powerful driver of change in approaache to biosecurity
Technological forecasting & Social Change, 71 (1 2), 5 26. Phucharoenchanachai, Suthee 2005. EID Concept Paper.
It largely ascribes changes in society to technological advances, which are assumed thus to have important social consequences (Haddon et al.,
and is considered to be influenced by‘change agents'(e g. private firms, influential individuals etc.).In the theory of diffusionism, the first group of people who adopt the new technology (innovators
Studies in Socio-Technical change. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Boczowski, P J 2004. The mutual shaping of technology and sociiet in videotex newspapers:
Change in CIMT intensity (1990 1996:++for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms adopting CIMT for first time Donzé (2002),
Switzerland Programme of promoting use of CIMT (CIM Programme, 1990 1996) 463 Matched-pair analysis (several alternative methods) Change in CIMT intensity (1990 1996):+
b) matched-pair analysis Change in CIMT intensity (1992 1998:++for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms with low intensity of CIMT use Görg andstrobl (2007), Ireland R&d grants from (Industrial Development Agency (IDA) Ireland and Forbairt
Drivers of dynamic processes of change and sudden disruptive transformations range from rapid technological changes to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.
while the effort committed to advancing FTA as an adaptive tool (assisting governments to plan for incremental change) have been useful,
systemic change, reorienting the research and innovattio system towards major societal challenges, with greater integration of FTA;.
to investing in developing in-house competencies for coping with sudden change. A tighter embedding of FTA in support of decision-making is needed in the context of a fast-changing, turbulent and complex environment.
As a consequence, there is a growing need for the capacity to anticipate change to be embedded centrally in policy-and decision-making,
Cutler, Marks, Meylan, Smith and Koivisto take the view that science will play a key role in society's response to emergent global grand challenges such as resource scarcity and global environmental change.
Science itself will also be a source of new challenges but also opportunities through its contribution to technologgica change in areas such as:
'and detecting and responding to early signals of potential dramatic change. However, it has to be noted that FTA can challenge current systems
and through its implementation it can explore for new approaches that might include incremental but also radical changes.
and have an open attitude to changes in systems. These should not be seen as threats
embedding an FTA capacity designed primarily not to support incremental change, but to act as a warning and progenitor of disruptive change;.
acceptance of the enormous potential of processes using crowd-sourcing, including the diminution of central authority and legitimacy
Finally, social engagement means a change in the pattern of behavior by the citizens, much more participative and conscious of their rights.
as well as new manageemen approaches and changes of focus, from short-to 246. C. C. Nehme et al. medium-and long-term, in organizations, government structures and their many links and relationships.
Thirdly, we observe that there has been a change in the pattern of citizens'behavior, they are willing to participate in decisions
This change of behavior is logical, since the common citizen suffers directly from the effects of environmental changes.
Individual participation in subjects affecting society as a whole is therefore ever more intense. Thus, not only discussions about the need for social engageemen in the decision-making process emerge,
The changes and adaptations required in the methodologgica approach to increase the chances of success..The strategies developed to generate intangibles.
the political changes that could affect it as a government-owned company. 5. 2 Future perspectives A tool the future timeline was developed
and of the identification of drivers for future events promoting environmental changes, and alterations in the trajectories of relevant phenommena defined by national and international studies,
it is clear that a great change is anticipated often by a series of micro-events, often not perceived.
When change is consolidated, those who were able to perceive the signs certainly have a comparative advantage over others (Loveridge 2009).
or change drivers are actually relevant and to imagine a timeframe in which they may possibly occur.
This was created due to FINEP's need to promote changes in its organizational and management processes,
Some important changes and adaptations to the methodological approach were required, and are described briefly below. Figure 5. Methodological process for development of FINEP's SMP. 254.
Changes in attitudes and mind-sets helps people think about long-term issues and be prepared better to face the challenges ahead..
navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 462 82. European commission, Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies.
towards integration of the field and new methods',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 71: 287 303. Santos, M m.,
between institutional inertia and rapid changes'Paper prepared for the workshop on Innovation Paradigm: The Impact of Economic Ideas on RTD Policies, 4s/EASST Conference 2000, held 27 30 september 2000, Vienna.
and explore the changes in the relationships between these components over time. Since national institutions,
We especially focus on the components of each NSTIS and the changes in their interactions over time.
should be regarded as an important milestone in the change of policies. Before 1982, the main purpose of policies was to encourage
Chang, M.-Y. 2004) The Change of Taiwan's Agricultural Community(.Taipei: Council of Agriculture.
Globalization, Change and Policy in Asia and Europe. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Freeman, C. 1987) Technology policy and Economic Performance:
the evolution of technological systems in renewable energy technology',Industrial and Corporate Change, 13: 815 49.
when linking innovation agendas to grand challenges as it will likely act as a barrier to the radical changes that are needed probably.
a lot of unlearning and disruption of existing linkages will be required as part of the processes of transformative change..
This makes them an essential starting point in efforts to set in motion virtuous cycles of transformative change directed at grand challenges.
They require broader changes in human perceptions and behaviour, as well as social innovations promoting non-technological solutions.
Specifically, the structural elements particularly the institutioonspoint to mechanisms for enacting change through intervention while the functions signpost the sorts of issues that must be addressed
Changes in soft institutions are likely to be particularly critical in determining progress in finding viable paths towards tackling grand challenges and any consequent change in paradigms that these may entail.
for example, requires not only surpassing long-established vested interests in certain resources but also a change in the behaviour, norms and values of societies.
Other changes required in soft institutions concern the motivations and focus of business actors in engaging with innovation,
This change is reflected in terms such as: corporate social responsibility, corporate citizenship, or stakeholder theory, in which business organisations increasingly promote innovation in their social and environmental policies (Smith 2000).
and other actors to become more adaptive and capable of enacting systemic change. Thus, FTA can play a number of important roles (see Fig. 1) in orienting innovation systems
and changes in paradigms is needed. At the same time FTA PROCESSES place a special emphasis on novelty, creativity and multi-disciplinarity in knowledge development,
and emerging drivers of change Identify New s&t, business, societal, policy and political opportunities Increase awareness of possible risks,
and attractive places for investment Enhance responsiveness of organisations by supporting change in individuals'behaviour
and resources for enacting transformative change. A different type of innovation policy is required essentially that better acknowledges the co-evolutionary, multidimensional,
complex and multi-actor nature of the processes involved in enabling transformative change. In this context, this paper has introduced some of the contributions that FTA could make to orienting innovattio systems towards grand challenges.
Finally, the ability to conduct and/or utilise FTA is itself a valuable dynamic capability that encourages organisations to be more responsive, adaptabble and open to change.
A new approach for analysing technological change',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 74: 413 32. IDEA Consult. 2010)‘ The impact of European policy on the development of the ERA in the areas relevant to environmennt'Draft Final Report.
institutionalisation. 1. Introduction Increasingly dynamic processes of change and sudden disrupptiv developments are becoming the norm rather than the exception.
The drivers of these changes may range from rapid technological changes to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.
absorptive and adaptive capabilities and capacities in society to address continuous as well as disruptive change and challennge (Ko nno la et al. 2012a).
the individual capabilities and mindsets to anticipate change in fast-changing environments;.the institutional and organisational setup of FTA;.
and normative perspectives and defines forward directtion for coping institutionally with fast and disruptive change. It also points to key conceptual conclusions. 2. Conceptual framework:
In this section, a typology of transformations is developed to distinguish between different forms and sources of change in the system.
and the medium-to long-term impacts associated with them, for example in the case of climate change or environmental change.
Thirdly, two types of transformation can come into effect by design where change processes are planned and implemented, for example economic structural transformation or social change.
interacttiv chain of changes ranging from technological, natural, economic and political to social (pervasive and quick to diffuse with longer term effects emerging over time)
often requiring structural and systemic change and, in turn, necessitating the capacity to design and implement these transformations.
transformaation may emerge through proactive coordination that may lead to changes in competition and integration modes of governance.
in terms of their ability to tackle different types of transformative changes (see Table 2). The first dimension captures four types of transformations,
First, the traditional and best established forms of FTA focus on the anticipation of rather gradual change that may require adjustments of how innovation systems are wired up'and what thematic,
is a change in both governance and organisational models. A much higher degree of policy coordination seems to be needed to address societal challennge as well as a much more continuous and‘embedded'approach to FTA.
we want to explore the direction in which FTA is likely to evolve in the future. 3. 1 Emerging developments in FTA systems This section looks at how emerging developments in FTA deal with challenges of transformative change,
Anticipate gradual changes and support deliberate policies for transitions.‘‘Wiring up the innovation system'.'Stimulating national and regional economic development through innovation.
calling for a change in organisational culture. Networks of FTA practice generate a range of positive impacts particularly in engaging external, often internatioonal experts in FTA.
and in particular policy strategies Various governance modes are addressed in examination of instituutiona change for uptake of foresight results in design of systemic innovation policy Discusses how the findings of foresight project are embedded in institutional structures and policy design 160.
and this trend is likely to continue as part of a comprehensive package of elements for dealing with transformative change,
and to opt more for developing in-house competencies for coping with sudden change. A shift towards institutionalisation of FTA could be observed,
and allowing more customised responses to disruptive and transformatiiv changes. The question that arises from these observations on the possible future evolution of FTA is
whether or not these types of developments will be sufficient to cope with the challenges of transformative and disruptive changes.
when and how such changes will occur due to higher complexity, FTA can produce a better understanding of the overall landscape.
and companies tend to deal with changes in a reactive rather than a proacttiv mode.
in order to prepare and sensitise for using FTA in preparation of structural changes, and to prepare firms and governments accordingly.
Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.
Cachia, R.,Compan o, R. and Da Costa, O. 2007)‘ Grasping the potential of online social networks for foresight',Technological forecasting & Social Change, 74: 1179 203.
Calof, J. 2012)‘ Towards developing an instrument to evaluate Future technology Analysis A Canadian case study',Technological forecasting and Social Change (forthcoming.
global environmental change; hazards and disasters; ecosysste change; oceans; space research; and solar-terrestrial physics. ICSU also sets up committees to address particulla issues
and is involved in a number of science for poliic activities as a representative of the global scientific community (e g.
such as the global environmental change programmes, materialises through the coordination of the research and the integration of the results.
For example, it has been carrying out a visioning exercise On earth systems research with a view to identifying a single strategic framework for global environmental change research and its policy relevance (ICSU 2010.
The exercise set out to map the long-term uncertainties of developments around international science cooperation with a view to building greater agility vis-a vis disruptive change.
While there is no guarantte that patterns of change will be similar in scope and scale over the coming two decades as they were in the previous
while highlightiin the fact that some changes are difficult to predict..Duration: Given available resources and the scope of the exercise, it was thought at the outset that the exercise would take about 12 8 months to complete from start to finish.
however, by delays due to changes in key staff. As a consequence, the results generated in the later stages of the project (essentially the visionary success scenario) have shaped perhaps not ICSU's new strategic plan to the degree that was planned originally
Demographic change: this includes changes in global population size, spatial and age distribution, urban-to-rural balance..
Growing natural resource scarcity: this includes water, food, energy, ecosystems, materials..Global environmental change: from oceans to ecosysteem to the cryosphere and atmosphere, the forecasts are consistent in suggesting broad changes with major impacts on society over the coming two decades..
Human health and wellbeing: this includes trends in communicable and noncommunicable diseases, mortality..Technological change: while the nature and implicatiion of technological breakthroughs cannot be known in advance,
there is a high degree of certainty that these will occur over the next two decades, probably in several fields..
Such changes could have impacts on the approaches to science and the balance between national-scale versus international-scale science.
The places where science research will take place may change. Universities are presently key players but consortia of researchers,
The last decade has seen significant changes in the nature of the scientific record. The move to open-access publishing is likely to have a number of impacts, in particular,
The pattern of nationally based organisations training students could change. The very nature of what students learn,
The nature of the‘scientific career'could change. This could be impacted on by changes to the epistemic organisation of science, the science education process and special organisation and conduct of science.
The traditional models of academic careers and ways of evaluating scientists may change in the light of changes to any of the above drivers.
Box 1. Key drivers of change affecting international science cooperation. 172. M. Keenan et al. drivers in an earlier step were mapped now into the four scenario spaces to create coherent storylines.
Socioeconomic change is a major driver of science and it was considered that the exercise had captured this relationship rather well.
for delineating research directions, for contributing to the construction of advocacy coalitions in support of desirable change,
and for improving organisatioona agility vis-a vis future unpredictable change (Miles et al. 2008). These are all qualities that that can benefit international science cooperation as it seeks to address many of the grand challenges of our time.
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