Adaptive Robust Design under deep uncertainty Caner Hamarat, Jan H. Kwakkel, Erik Pruyt Delft University of Technology policy Analysis Department, PO BOX 5015,2600 GA Delft
Characteristic for these techniques is that they aim at charting the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 Corresponding author.
& Social Change boundaries of what might occur in the future. Although useful, these traditional methods are not free of problems.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 Fig. 1 shows a framework that operationalizes the high level outline of adaptive policy-making.
In a recent special issue of Technological forecasting and Social Change on adaptivity in decision-making, the guest editors conclude that Adaptive policy-making is a way of dealing with deep uncertainty that falls between too much precaution and acting too late.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 operationalizing the Adaptive Policy-making Framework is structured through workshops 35.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 explicitly considers the opportunities that uncertainties can present.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 In order to explore the problem and the uncertainties of energy transitions,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 fraction of new technologies for the no policy ensemble (in blue) and the basic policy ensemble (in green) as well as the KDES of the end states of all
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 this signpost. Using this trigger, the corrective action would be to stop investing in Technology 2
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 4. Discussion and implications for Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) In this paper we proposed an iterative computational approach for designing adaptive policies that are robust
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 3 E. Pruyt, J. H. Kwakkel, G. Yucel, C. Hamarat, Energy transitions towards sustainability:
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/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 Caner Hamarat is a Phd researcher at the Faculty of technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418
Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty Jan H. Kwakkel, Erik Pruyt Faculty of technology, Policy,
Similarly, if the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 Corresponding author. Tel.:++31 15 27 88487.
& Social Change mechanisms underlying a phenomenon are known perfectly, one could predict the future development of this phenomenon.
E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 that policy or planning debates can often be served even by the discovery of thresholds, boundaries,
Recent contextual developments constitute a backdrop of change for the Dutch electricity system. Institutional change driven by liberalization, changing economic competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies,
and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments. EMA is used to explore plausible transition trajectories in the face of these developments given technological uncertainty about investment and operating costs,
E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 This small and simplistic System Dynamics model was developed in about one day in close collaboration with a mineral/metal expert
Start, end, slope Fig. 1. Causal loop diagram of the scarcity model 18.422 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013
E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 otherwise. Next, we tried to identify subspaces in the overall uncertainty space that show a high concentration of crises runs using the Patient Rule Induction Method 31 33.
Changes in ownership structure, initiatives like Single European Sky and the Open Skies treaty between the United states and Europe, the introduction of new aircraft such as the Airbus A380 and the Boeing 787,
. 3. Evolution of market price for a 1000 runs. 424 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 3. 2
minimizing the time required to realize the change. To address the potential overshoot of negative external affects
Name Description Range Demand Change in demand, the curves can be parameterized in various ways Exponential growth, logistic growth,
or logistic growth followed by logistic decline Wide body vs. narrow body aircraft mix Change in aircraft mix,
the curves can be parameterized in various ways Linear or logistic change Population Change in population density,
or logistic growth to a maximum followed by logistic decline ATM technology Change in air traffic management technology,
the curves can be parameterized in various ways Exponential or logistic performance increase Engine technology (noise/emissions) Change in air traffic management technology,
or logistic performance increase Weather Percentage of change in days with severe wind conditions per year.
-1%+4%425 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 could serve as a starting point for slightly modifying the outlined dynamic adaptive plan,
or by modifying the stricter slot allocation regime. 3. 3. Identification of plausible transition pathways for the future Dutch electricity generation system Recent contextual developments constitute a backdrop of change
Institutional change driven by liberalization, changing economic competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies, and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments.
E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 can be decommissioned. Generation companies'expansion decisions are driven mainly by profit expectations,
and gas price increase percentage Yearly fractional increase in coal prices 0. 002 0. 03 Demand growth fraction Yearly fractional change in the demand of end users 0 0. 03 Load
slope change fraction Yearly fractional change in the slope of the load duration curve-0. 01 0. 01 Planning horizon of the generation companies Upper bound for the planning horizon of the generation companies.
E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 irreducible uncertainties inherent in the forces driving toward an unknown future beyond the short term
E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 some structural uncertainties were taken into account.
Future research avenues include elaborating on the use of EMA for designing dynamic adaptive policies and the use of EMA for 429 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80
dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty, Technological forecasting and Social Change,(under review. 23 R. U. Ayres, On the practical limits to substitution, Ecol.
)( 2008) 201 214.430 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 Jan Kwakkel is a postdoctoral researcher at Delft
from short-term crises to long-term transitions. 431 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431
and using scenarios and orienting innovation systems and research priorities 6. Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 Corresponding author.
& Social Change Developing and using future scenarios can: -contribute to society's strategic intelligence by stimulating future-oriented thinking
For instance, developments in science and technology have a strong potential to influence social change. There are, however, many reasons why the practical use of scientific knowledge
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 2. Material and methods How can we learn about orienting innovation systems from future scenario practice?
The concept of national innovation systems is rooted in evolutionary economic theorizing on socio-technical change 33 35.
What methodological issues are salient in relation to the identification of emerging trends and change? How commensurable are different modes of modeling and other forms of dynamical representation?
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 experiments in the policy process, new concepts and sustainable solutions can be found to grand challenges.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The concept of the multiple-axes method is based on one of the approaches used by Pierre Wack 52.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 our analysis a better understanding of the linkages between scenario design, methods used and related outcomes.
The Prelude scenarios2 are a good example (see Appendix 1). An important input for the scenario work in this group are the comprehensive descriptions of the external drivers for change highlighting the uncertainty of future developments.
We found that adapting for change is often the general theme in the lessons learnt.
adapting for change is seen logically as the dominant response. In that sense the potential for innovation within the system (i e. inward reflection) is acknowledged less.
changes in the external environment are part of the scenarios. But in contrast with the first group, change is described less by framing very different long-term future worlds.
Breaking up the long-term in more tangible time periods helps understand the necessary steps for embracing change.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The images of the future are focused on key internal developments
(i e. inward reflection) and often driven by technology or changes in our way of living.
The future plays the role of the time needed to introduce the necessary changes to comply with the envisaged principles.
The concept of change is an implicit part of the scenarios developed in backcasting from principles
and innovation to meet necessary change and uncertainties in the agri-food sector facing resource constrains and environmental limits.
they also involve the interaction of the stakeholders, their ideas, values and capacities for social change.
investigating and utilizing potential future societal changes and developments, see also 62,77. To synthesize this section on results and implications,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 5. Discussion Due to the social dynamic characteristic of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging 24.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The solutions developed should be socially reflexive
especially by decision-makers Conventional Convention Agree on common accepted probabilities of change (rejecting extreme ideas) Strong on acceptance and alignment,
and external change Visionary Preference Envision how society can be designed in a better (e g. more sustainable) way Allows creating authentic alternative visions to guide innovation Weak on clear targets,
surprise and external change Technocratic Expertise and discovery Demonstrate technical feasibility and optimize technological development Allows minimizing inconsistencies
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 acknowledge the limits of our analysis: i e. using a policy perspective for doing an ex-post analysis of future scenario practice.
investigating and utilizing potential future societal changes and developments. This integrated approach, i e. integrating different modes of futures thinking, is needed for orienting innovation along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 References 1 C. Harries, Correspondence to what?
Futures 43 (2011) 130 133.47 S. A. van't Klooster, M. B. A. van Asselt, Accommodating or compromising change?
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 58 J. P. Gavigan, F. Scapolo, A comparison of national foresight exercises, Foresight 1 (1999) 495
How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change, Pearson, Prentice hall, New york, 2006.69 U. Beck, Ecological Politics in an Age of Risk, Polity Press, Cambridge, 1995.70 L. M. Ricard, K
Futures 38 (2006) 350 366.77 P. De Smedt, Can Negotiating the Future Influence Policy and Social change?
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443
The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Petra Schaper-Rinkel AIT Austrian Institute of technology, Donau-City-Straße 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria a r t i c l e
and then recognizing that the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 E-mail address:
& Social Change emergence of nanotechnology is adjudicated not just in labs, but rather also in processes such as technology forecasting, technology assessment and participatory future-oriented studies, involving scientists, policymakers, media,
& Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 As FTA is understood commonly as an umbrella term for a broad set of activities that facilitate decision-making and coordinated action,
446 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 support nanotechnology education, research and development the fastest will thrive in the new millennium 1. These statements illustrate that the report
& Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 approaches to address environmental, health, safety and societal impacts of nanotechnology as environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology 46 and to develop risk governance for nanotechnology 42.
448 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 Nanolux (optics industry, nanotechnology for energy efficient lighting.
449 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 In this later stage, heterogeneous stakeholders beyond the actors of the early established nano-policy networks
The capacity for change (facilitating policy implementation, embedding participation in policy-making and reconfiguring the policy system) was enhanced by building networks among government departments, agencies, industry and a broad variety of academic disciplines.
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, several industrial countries established their first programs in 450 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
Making it in Miniature Nanotechnology Report Summery, POST, Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology policy, London, 1996, p. 4. 451 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change
and methods and practices of futuring. 452 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
Inductive foresight approach with an emphasis on capturing indications for extra-systemic change at a micro level instead of extrapolating seemingly dominant macro-trends.
Rigorous assessment of coverage of dimensions of change, to foster the explicit consideration of possibly unrecognised/hidden structural changes Extended openness for diversity,
The findings of the project indicate interesting changes in the nexus of innovation demand and innovation supply.
the need to think about change in the conditions of change 2 is being recognised. One prominent example is the case of priority setting for science, technology and innovation policy a highly relevant domain of foresight activities.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Corresponding author. E-mail address: Elna. Schirrmeister@isi. fraunhofer. de (E. Schirrmeister.
& Social Change In such mission-oriented STI strategies the socioeconomic impact becomes the key criterion for STI priority setting.
Sustainability is another realm where the need for foresight methods that are able to unlock the potential for paradigmatic change rather than just highlighting incremental improvements along current trajectories is strongly emerging.
A number of studies are pointing towards the need for more fundamental changes using notions such as transformative innovation 6, system transition 7,
A third arena where systemic change needs to be addressed is innovation itself as its very definition seems to be shifting.
Accordingly, a change in innovation can no longer be investigated as a change in direction or priority but needs to be recognised as a change in kind.
Future innovation landscapes may function according to a different logic all together. The INFU (Innovation Futures) foresight project was set out to explore such future innovation landscapes.
1. screening for signals of changes linked to innovation in a wide range of online
In particular, the following four features served to enable the discovery of structural change in innovation: Inductive foresight approach Visual inspiration Assessment of coverage of dimensions of change Extended openness for diversity (prolonged divergence.
In the following sub-sections these features are described in more detail. 2. 1. Inductive foresight approach There is a wide variety of foresight approaches differentiated not only by their objectives
Both these 1 www. innovation-futures. org. 454 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 approaches can be termed inductive
because they start by looking for diverse indications of change without predefined restrictions. Common ground of almost all the approaches is the consideration of impact
it does not enable the recognition of structural change and long-term transition emerging from within the system.
After the initial scanning process for signals of change the signalswere clustered by dimensions of change.
As a result 19 clusters of signals of change were identified. Each cluster pointed towards a specific change in innovation patterns,
derived from diverse signals of change from various sources of information. For each cluster, a fictive vision was developed by the project consortium by way of amplification using the three principles Transfer, Generalisation,
Radicalisation as shown in Fig. 1. Fig. 2 illustrates the amplification process for one of the clusters 23.
but also in the weak signal collection available on the internet. 2 The movie is available at www. innovation-futures. org. 455 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change
Changes in the behaviour or the use of a product would be detected without delay and the most appropriate ideas for product optimatisation would be available immediately.
The innovation would then be triggered by changes in the behaviour of people and there would be no time lag, thanks to real time investigation.
web-extracted innovation. 456 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Fig. 3. Screenshot from the INFU web-based
survey. 457 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Fig. 4. Visualisation of all INFU visions. 458 E. Schirrmeister,
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 2. 2. Visual inspiration The INFU amplifications were illustrated in a visual,
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 without any rootwithin phenomena that can be observed today 25,26.
These two visions were excluded thereafter from further interpretation. 2. 3. Assessment of coverage of dimensions of change A third innovative feature developed within INFU to underpin the capture of structural change is the application of a framework of dimensions of change at the very beginning of the project.
and the initial analysis of the signals of change described above 16. Throughout the project the team discussed
The framework developed within the INFU project supported an analysis of structural changes hinted at by several visions.
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 the scenario building activity is looking for a consensus building process among the participants
These so-called nodes of change in innovation 24 were subjected then to in depth discussionwithin the INFU mini panels (Table 1). The co-ordinators were identified in the course of the interviews as people with particularly relevant ideas and high
organisations or infrastructure. 3. INFU findings and lessons learnt 3. 1. The future of innovation preliminary insights The findings indicate interesting changes in the mediation between innovation demand
Dimensionof change Modified specificationextreme A Modification specificationextreme B Today's dominantspecification Fig. 7. Assessment of coverage of dimensions of change. 461 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting
& Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 mini panels were the emergence of more active roles for users and citizens
the framework supported the extraction of the following structural changes in innovation patterns 30:1) Mediation and co-ordination:
Node of change covered Mini panel co-ordinator Visioning approach 1. Citizens role in innovation governance Anders Jacobi Danish Board of Technology,
and use phases. 462 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 (2) Participation:
Fig. 9. Element from INFU mini panel Participatory Innovation. 463 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466
In particular the policy actors welcomed the fact that INFU underpinned the exploration of fundamental changes in the innovation landscape rather than isolated responses to individual trends. 3. 2. Lessons learnt methodology From a methodological point of view the aim of the INFU project was to contribute towards building
The consideration of very diverse perspectives can be seen as an important starting point for the assessment of systemic change.
and scenario building approach used the signals of change to develop diverse visions without using an impact/uncertainty matrix
and divergence of the visions and fostered the search for specifications of dimension of change not covered in the first draft.
The systematic assessment of the findings supported deliberate inclusion or exclusion of dimensions of change.
when working in a project consortium) 31 the assessment of coverage of dimensions of change supported the project teamin looking for specific signals of change that had at first been neglected due to perception filters.
The inductive approach (focussing on signals of change at the micro level) and the extended openness for diversity are typical elements of weak signal scanning processes.
The assessment of dimensions of change is similar to the concept of alternative logics, which has been proved to be a robust and resilient approach to develop alternative scenarios 32, p. 111.
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 dominance of the macro-level and the influence of today's perception of consistency were reduced to give room for creative assessment of structural transformation.
The framework of dimensions of change used to assess the results of the signal screening phase enabled the INFU team to systematically question anticipatory assumptions and to reintroduce opposing views in a reflexive manner.
and restructured several times, the check against dimensions of change seems promising. Accordingly it seems worthwhile to further develop
Actors who considered a structural change as a positive transition werewilling to be involved in the further development of the visions.
while INFU may have been successful in developing diverse visions pointing at potential structural change, the next issue that will have to be tackled is the use of such transformative visions in actually managing transformative transition processes 34,35. 3 E g.
465 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 References 1 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C
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2001.20 E. Hiltunen, Was it a wild card or just our blindness to gradual change?
Innovation futures scripts nodes of change in innovation patterns emerging from the explorative dialogue on the 19 INFU visions (deliverable D 3. 1), www. innovation-futures. org
Manag. 12 (3)( 2008) 255 273.34 J. Grin, J. Rotmans, J. Schot, Transitions to sustainable development, New Directions in the Study of Long term Transformative Change, Routledge
, New york/London, 2010.35 K. M. Weber, H. Rohracher, Legitimizing research, technology and innovation policies for transformative change:
Her research focuses on Foresight methodology and the mutual shaping of technology and society. 466 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466
when fast moving technological and social changes can expose wrong bets made both on platform technologies
what is going on by observing that the rate of social change has overtaken the rate of technological change
and by implication wider changes in the world economic order. Taking the conference as a whole, regularly used keywords emphasised discontinuities with a discourse around grand challenges,
transformations and disruptive change while references to adaptation and alignment hinted at strategies for coping Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 Corresponding author at:
lists available at Sciverse Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change with these futures. While it is the task of futurists in general to anticipate,
which change is considered. In the domain of innovation policy government actions have been fundamentally gradualist in their approach since the1980s.
J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 and more an input into understanding what its transformative implications might be.
The bigger change in policy is in the domain of strategic and applied research where the notion of grand or societal challenges has risen to prominence,
J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 but may not be desirable to achieve.
Towards integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303 2004.2 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU US
foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy, Futures 43 (3)( 2011) 243 251.10 L. Georghiou, Europe's research system must change, Nature 452 (2008) 935
, Technological forecasting and Social Change 80 (3)( 2013) 386 397. Luke Georghiou is Professor of Science and Technology policy and Management in the Manchester Institute of Innovation research at Manchester Business school.
and R&i policy at the European and international level, serving on a number of EU expert groups. 470 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467
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