Changes to these deeply embedded standards and practices will require both time and continuing commitment.
and a special issue of Technological forecasting and Social Change 5. The second Conference in 2006 enlarged the geographical base of participants,
This led to a book published by Springer 6 and special issues in Technological forecasting and Social Change 7,
Recent crises and the threat of major longer-term changes are fostering a view that business as usual approaches are not capable of addressing these challenges.
The 2004 EU-US Seminar, Technological forecasting and Social Change 72 (9)( 2005. 6 Cagnin, et al.
impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008.
such as anticipating changes, taking the user perspective into account, fostering participation and building networks. Such an understanding is in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique generating oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Therefore
and is resistant to change and transformation, the article argues for equipping legal activities with a set of tools,
Swiss Expert for the International Energy Agency (IEA) Demand-Side Management (DSM) Task XXIV on Behaviour Change,
and predict fundamental societal changes was the most often stated reason for the inaccuracies.‘‘‘‘The change in the labor force due to increased participation of women was one of the commonly quoted examples of the model's inability to properly account for travel behaviour''.
''Such factors can be considered as known unknowns: it is known that transport is derived demand and is highly dependent on developments in society
and their changes over the course of time. For transparent decision making procedures it is crucial to make preferences
''Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 72, pp. 1064-9. Grunwald, A. 2007),‘Working towards sustainable development in the face of uncertainty and incomplete knowledge'',Journal of Environmental policy and Planning, Vol. 9
introduction to section 2'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 77, pp. 917-23. About the authors Jens Schippl is a Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of technology.
and most importantly lead to better decision-making and policy making (and perhaps contribute to use of theories of social change in foresight).
''But the rules do not have to be fixed they can change according changes in the system too (for a driver a late night in a bad area may change the first rule to‘‘don't stop for anyone''.
The implication is that foresight techniques must be able to accommodate changes in the basic rules.
Foresight techniques need to enable a vision of changes in the essential profile of a system. 3. The interactions between the component parts of a complex system
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 295 Systems can also be unexpectedly very stable highly resistant to change by policy intervention-or very unstable such as where a policy intervention leads to stream of unexpected changes
once any change has happened, a system cannot go back to where it was as the initial conditions have changed now.
and changes (using the taxies example customers may decide to share taxies to different destinations as the norm).
A change in any part of the system even in a single element, produces reactions and changes in associated elements and the environment.
Therefore, the effects of any one intervention in the system cannot be predicted with complete accuracy, because the system is always responding
and adapting to changes and the actions of individuals. Mikulecky (2001) Complexity is the property of a real world system that is manifest in the inability of any one formalism being adequate to capture all its properties.
Whatever we say about the future has an implicit idea of change underlying any inference
and most theories of social change have implied an underlying pattern, although we are not always aware of it.
complexity potentially offers us the closest we have ever come to having an overall theory of social change.
and return the excess change. By simply thinking about a possible future (the purchase of the flat), you have changed your frame.
In addition to using Reframing to enable a change in the way we see, think about, and understand things,
For example, emergence is a process of change and embracing it can mean choosing to respond, continuously, to that change, sympathetically and synergistically rather than a controlling, combative style:
embracing not resisting. Another way is to accept that change is the force of control rather than being the result of controlling intentions.
In this case, embracing emergence can mean supporting and encouraging the current situation, and its emergent change, in a way that ensures that generally desirable outcomes will thrive, irrespective of
what those specific outcomes might be. It could also be about accepting that it is the route being travelled, rather than the unknowable destination, that matters,
Such policy making requires iterative monitoring of the emerging changes, to ensure that the desirable ones are supported and the undesirable ones diverted.
and outcomes (futures) resulting from a change process, rather than working with (in) interactions of the systems components itself.
and the essential profile of a system can change, where the‘‘rules''can be laws and policies,
but the structure of the economy can change. B Low-carbon technology will improve significantly in all sectors by 2050.
and prevent change, backcasting aims to liberate images of the future from today's mental fixations and dominating trends.
Some factors enable the changes thrived for, while others deter it and need to be resolved.
value-laden issues, increase social learning and in themselves advance social change (Robinson et al. 2011, p. 757).
considerable changes in attitudes and habits of both the citizens as well as different industries are required. The areas that will face the biggest pressure to change are energy intensive industry,
polluting energy industry (especially peat energy), transport and logistics, construction, meat production and travelling. As for the public's approval for the actions needed to prevent the unwanted effects of climate change
and needed changes for current practises caused by each scenario. The results of these calculations are presented in the Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009, pp. 160-184.
Further refinement in the changes in the operational environment that affect the possibilities to reach the emission goals of 2050 would have been needed to make the foundation for attaching numerical information more solid.
a cross-impact analysis to see the possible implications that changes in major elements of each of the scenarios might bring,
continues Change in values Not a great change, the biggest change is increased the willingness to adapt
and take advantage of solutions produced by the development in ICT Transformation away from culture of mass-consumption.
Responsibility for one's own welfare and actions has increased Very little change: preserving equal rights for everyone to choose one's own way of living (where and how to live, what,
The most important deviation from the original results was made the change to scenario B. In the original material produced by the scenario process facilitated by FFRC
A brief look backward and forward'',Technological forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 78 No. 9, pp. 1712-9. PAGE 314 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Mannermaa, M
recent progress in the use of participatory backcasting approaches for sustainability research'',Technological forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 78, pp. 756-68.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1. Introduction Assessing emerging technologies is a necessary,
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1095 2. Method:
because it R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1096 has changed the perception
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1097 technological field, with its dedicated journals, conferences and communities.
changes at societal level have a slower pace than at the level of individual research groups 7. Fig. 2 shows
H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1098 3. Case: nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes Before explaining the details about nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes,
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1099 other hand there are growing concerns about the development
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1100 Nantero (US Patent No. 20030165074.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1101 However, there are other voices that agitate against this.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1102 (Korea) did just that.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1103 reported the latter method in 2001 26.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1104 3. 2. Tracing agenda building
and start to work on solving the problems at R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1105 hand.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1106 These insights and empirical findings give the opportunity to trace emerging irreversibilities
and nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes (Fig. 8). We have shown that results of research groups directly give rise to expectations for promising applications and change the agendas for the future.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1107 As mentioned in Section 2,
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1108 development of dusefult applications of technology, CTA
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1109 5 H. Van Lente, Forceful futures:
34 J. W. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 251 268.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1110 35 F. W. Geels, Towards sociotechnical scenarios
H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1111
Linking territorial foresight and urban planning Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell and Leticia Redondo Abstract Purpose This article aims to show the opportunity
such as anticipating changes, fostering participation and building networks, in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique that generates oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Research limitations/implications In order to boost the perception of scenario design as an added value instrument for urban planners
Change drivers affecting social attitude toward SD were grouped into two axes: 1. Vertical axis. Represented the potential alternative responses by society in the future to the SD concept.
Increase of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) or other measures of aggregate income, typically reported as the annual rate of change in real GDP Environment Selective collection of solid waste.
so that society can adapt quickly to changes. B Promote an educational system that transmits the values of sustainability, innovation, social commitment and solidarity.
B The transformation of the planning process will require reciprocal changes in the legal framework and the governance model.
Overcoming this challenge will mean undertaking significant changes in day-to-day habits, as well as in governance and business models.
and is resistant to change and transformation, the article argues for equipping legal activities with a set of tools,
lawyers and jurists tend to construct legal systems that are overly rigid and, as such, resistant to change and transformation.
and decision makers to test the prospective impacts and consequences of a given change in legislation.
The effects of legal changes and reforms could thus be anticipated and tested in safe and experimental environments.
such as the special editions of Technological forecasting and Social Change vol. 75 (4); Technological Analysis and Strategic management vol. 20 (3;
Technological forecasting and Social Change, vol. 72 (9; as well as to the publication of the book Cagnin et al.
which acts as a powerful tool for the exploration of the long-term future of closely interacting policy-related issues (including human development, social change and environmental sustainability).
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 other hand, decision support and policy making require information on the potential consequences of the introduction of new technologies before they are implemented widely,
and from the change in economic and societal patterns initiated by the almost ubiquitous usage of these technologies.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1113 Most funding organisations or contract awarders require valid, scientifically sound, knowledge-based, often quantitative,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1114 ordinated by the Europa ische Akademie zur Erforschung von Folgen wissenschaftlich-technischer Entwicklungen Bad
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1115 considered as the most important bridge between basic research and marketable products and processes.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1116 The term droadmapt is used widely, starting from graphical representations of technology development paths and their application environments up to detailed and ambitious
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1117 be as specific and reliable as necessary to be the basis for a valid and sound technology assessment
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1118 Besides this, a successful implementation of this concept could also help to overcome some of the argumentative asymmetries that can be found in many debates about chances
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1119 purposes, and what further benefits of the roadmapping process beyond structuring the field of nanotechnology can be expected. 5. Summary
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1120 2 T. Fleischer, A. Grunwald, Technikgestaltung fu r mehr Nachhaltigkeit Anforderungen an die Technikfolgenabscha
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1121
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The fourth editiio (2011) of the International Seville Conference on Future-Orientedtechnologyanalysis (FTA) focused its attention on processes of transformative change in response to Grand Societal Challennges
and would need to complement the technological perspective that has dominated traditionally FTA. 2 It is against the background of such transformative changes that this special issue looks at the fundamental possibilities
and address change within the networks in which it is embedded, using FTA thinking to shape a pathway of a business towards sustainable development.
In this model, innovation occurs when social practice changes. The history of innovations and technical change shows that‘heroic innovators'are located often in the downstream.
At that point, social practices start to change. Messaging becomes a key driver for development and profit in the telecom industry,
Innovation as creative evolution According to Schumpeter, innovation can be defined as a historic and irreversible change in the way of doing things.
Although Schumpeter went on to further define innovation as those changes in the production function that cannot be decomposed into infinitesimal steps,
as evolutionary change is strongly underdetermined by selection (Varela, Thompson, and Rosch 1991,195). In this regard, there is no difference between, for example, business organisations and biological organisms.
introducing novelty that irreversibly changes natural systems and makes their predictive models obsolete. Implications for foresight and future-oriented analysis What are the practical implications of the above conceptual analysis for foresight and futureorieente analysis?
In the activitytheooreti hierarchy, the focus of change is on the operational level as new ways of doing old things.
and how the entities and their interaction modes change as a result of these interactions. The ontological uncertainty of van Asselt and Rotmans could in this classification be defined as truth uncertainty. 3. The need for text communication, paging,
Technological forecasting and Social Change 78, no. 3: 375 85. Rubin, A. 1998. Giving images a chance:
The analysis of economic change. Reprinted from Review of Economic Statistics, May 2 10,1935. In Essays on entrepreneurs, innovations, business cycles and the evolution of capitalism, ed. R. V. Clemence, 134 49.
Climatic Change 54, no. 1: 75 105. Varela, F. J.,E. Thompson, and E. Rosch. 1991.
The immense disruption caused by the change from an oxygen poor to an oxygen rich atmosphere is one example.
but slower pace of ecological change is stark, and can be devastatingly disruptive while occurring over decades or centuries,
large and small, relating to Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 767 long-term directions of change in the business environment.
Functions for policy Description Informing policy Generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options,
and transmitting them to policy-makers Facilitating policy implementation Enhancing the capacity for change within a given policy field by building a common awareness of current and future challenges,
but rather a change or creation of a new reality (Guice 1999). In other words, expectations are performative:
Expectations will not automatiicall lead to change; it is first necessary that others move accordingly. Berkhout, therefore, suggests viewing expectations as‘bids'.
Technological forecasting and Social Change 78, no. 1: 152 62. Berkhout, F. 2006. Normative expectations in systems innovation.
Technological forecasting and Social Change 67, no. 1: 1 17. Collins, H, . and T. Pinch. 1993.
Technological forecasting and Social Change 72, no. 9: 1064 9. Grin, J, . and A. Grunwald, eds. 2000.
Technological forecasting and Social Change 74, no. 5: 608 26. Konrad, K. 2006. The social dynamics of expectations:
Technological forecasting and Social Change 69, no. 6: 625 39. Luiten, E.,H. van Lente, and K. Blok. 2006.
An evolutionary theory of economic change. Cambridge, MA: Harvard university Press. Porter, A. 2004. Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods.
Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 3: 287 303. Reger, G. 2001. Technology foresight in companies:
Technological forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 3: 334 55. Rosenberg, N. 1982. On technological expectations.
Technological forecasting and Social Change 54, nos. 2 3: 251 68. Sturken, M. D. Thomas, and S. J. Ball-Rokeach, eds. 2004.
Accommodating or compromising change? A story about ambitions and historic deterministic scenarios. Futures 43, no. 1: 86 98.
and comprehend information about changes and new events. More specifically‘‘environmental uncertainty'arises when managers lack accurate information Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 785 about organisations, activities,
namely, when they are not confident that they can predict what the major changes are or will be (Duncan 1972;
and refers to the inability to understand how the components of the environment might change (e g. in the case of the automotive industry, the driver of change of ecological concern by public policy-makers in Europe:
The outputs from foresight activities provide a wide basis of information which explores longaan medium-term changes in customers'needs and lifestyles,
which summarises the evolution of changes in society, lifestyle, and customer needs in terms of both markets and technologies.
At Siemens, too, foresight activities go beyond identifying emerging changes in technology and customer needs to encompass the exploitation of the new market opportunities inherent in such changes.
Initially, one of the company business groups is targeted as the‘buyer'for a specific market opportunity,
Let us consider in particular such a driver of change as the convergence of multimedia technologies:
because they helped managers focus on emerging forces of change. Scenarios provided an organic framework for thinking about how these forces could develop in the next 10 or 20 years.
and published in international journals such astechnological Forecasting and Social Change, Technology analysis and Strategic management, and International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy.
Special issue, Technological forecasting and Social Change 77, no. 9: 1423 5. Cuhls, K, . and R. Johnston. 2008.
Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 3: 287 303. Porter, M. E. 1980. Competitive strategy. Newyork:
Technological forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 7: 817 33. Roveda, C.,R. Vecchiato, R. Verganti,
Technological forecasting and Social Change 77, no. 9: 1527 39. Wack, P. 1985. Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead.
and address change within the networks in which it is embedded, using future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking to shape the business's path towards sustainable development.
disruptive and transformative change; FTA and complex ecosystems 1. Introduction Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking is used in an explanation
and address change in the networks within which they are embedded. The behaviour of these networks is analysed from the perspective of sympoietic complex systems.
organisational change, fair and ethical negotiations; fair work conditions; training and education of human resources;
therefore, able to deal only with incremental changes rather than with disruptive ones. 3. Maturity model:
The framework is dynamic to incorporate changes along the way and enable its own evolution following the organisation's
Management system FTA roles Decide to be in business FTA supports mutual learning and shared understanding of network actors'views and feelings as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes, all of
to change in attitudes and behaviours and to joint-up decisions for change in order to steer solutions to emerging challenges through an inclusive approach as well as further experimentation
focus on processes and activities planning-Change factors as processes and activities interdependence-Decision based on risk/reward-Integration starts;
despite changes in the environment or to adapt their identity to fit changes. The above descriptions present a useful heuristic to complex systems and the interactions between the dimensions of sustainable development
Social change implies that people within a society must change: this happens either through encounters outside the specific social system or via reflections through language (Maturana and Varela 1997.
and these change as the environment changes. In other words, an individual adapts to his/her environment to avoid disintegration.
this enables change towards a common vision using tools which can support firms through the process to shape business sustainable development throughout their networks of relationships.
and manage disruptive and transformative changes. The kind of dialogue supported throughftaprovides a newparadigm able to deal with unpredictability
and changes and improvements possible Partnerships Partnerships selection; building; and leveraging Motivation Motivational channels and processes selection;
and manage disruptive and transformative changes, allowing network partners to evolve together and creating an evolutionary leap in sustainability performance.
large and small, relating to long-term directions of change in the business environment. He has negotiated technology licences
The ten stages of change. Nursing Management 21, no. 4: 33 38. Porter, M. E. 1980.
Match your change strategy to your organization's maturity. Nonprofit World 21, no. 5: 19 20.
whether or not to be in business (changes needed) according to competitive and environmental changes and the range of feedback the firm is able to build.
as a consequence, processes of innovation and the changes needed for survival and to sustain competitive responsible advantages in the future.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 at Sandia has its roots in the LDRD program.
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1123 IA leads were designed to not only benchmark the visualizations,
N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1124 3. 1. Data collection Two different sets of data were compiled from multiple sources
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1125 document matrix.
During our meeting with the CIS area leader, we first K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1126 gathered information
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1127 greatest overlaps with CIS,
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1128 Another significant outcome of the meeting with the IA leader was his desire
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1129 extract the hidden relationships within the landscape visualization
N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1130 The first level of analysis identified a macroscale understanding of the overlaps as well as the unique competencies and capabilities that each IA possessed.
N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1131 areas of interest to Sandia since the map indicates that they are well outside our core competency areas.
The area inside the dashed box is explored further in Fig. 7. K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1132 competencies,
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1133 rolling up all of the IAS to an overall Sandia category.
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1134 relationships.
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1135 References 1 K. Bfrner, C. Chen, K
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1136
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The position of these beacons should be checked regularly in relation to changes in the landscape and in relation to other‘navigators'.
is a partial structural openness that endorses flexibility in responding to the systemic flows, such as changes in the business environment or in the customer's innovation processes.
such as a change in the environment, emerges. In the context of systemic transformation capacities, the generic process of roadmapping is coarsely the following:(
In our ideal model, we have depicted, for example, disruptive futures (phenomena that change the name of the game),
and organisations when responding to system-level changes. First activation of the systemic transformation capacities is useful
Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory. Research policy 33, nos. 6 7: 897 920.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 71, no. 2: 141 59. Kostoff, R. N, . and R. R. Schaller. 2001.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72, no. 5: 567 83. Myllyoja, J.,N. Wessberg, and P. Pajakkala. 2012.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 71, no. 1 2: 81 100. Phaal, R c. Farrukh, and D. Probert. 2001.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 71:5 26. Phaal, R c. J. P. Farrukh, and D. R. Probert. 2006.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 76:39 49. Smits, R, . and S. Kuhlmann. 2004. The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy.
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